{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":4.2,"endTime":6.96,"body":"Hi everybody. My name is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":4.2,"endTime":6.96,"body":"Greg Hancock and along with my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":6.96,"endTime":12.63,"body":"longitudinal friend, my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":6.96,"endTime":12.63,"body":"intensive longitudinal friend,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":12.81,"endTime":15.84,"body":"Patrick Curran, we make up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":12.81,"endTime":15.84,"body":"quantity food. We're a podcast"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":15.84,"endTime":18.21,"body":"dedicated to all things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":15.84,"endTime":18.21,"body":"quantitative ranging from the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":18.21,"endTime":21.3,"body":"irrelevant to the completely"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":18.21,"endTime":21.3,"body":"irrelevant. In today's episode,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":21.3,"endTime":24.48,"body":"we talked about that sweet spot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":21.3,"endTime":24.48,"body":"between panel designs and time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":24.48,"endTime":27.93,"body":"series designs, intensive"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":24.48,"endTime":27.93,"body":"longitudinal data, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":27.93,"endTime":30.15,"body":"logistical and analytical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":27.93,"endTime":30.15,"body":"challenges, but more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":30.15,"endTime":33.81,"body":"importantly, the tremendous"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":30.15,"endTime":33.81,"body":"potential along the way. We also"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":33.81,"endTime":38.46,"body":"mentioned campfire face plants,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":33.81,"endTime":38.46,"body":"fear of horses, your spare"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":38.46,"endTime":43.26,"body":"eyelid, polishing your Nobel"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":38.46,"endTime":43.26,"body":"Prize, ripples in a pond. lick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":43.26,"endTime":48.09,"body":"him, sir. August 14. The"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":43.26,"endTime":48.09,"body":"basketball effect, Southwest"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":48.09,"endTime":51.84,"body":"boarding number be 14 high"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":48.09,"endTime":51.84,"body":"school math teacher apologies."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":52.26,"endTime":55.8,"body":"Open mic night, and Umbrella"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":52.26,"endTime":55.8,"body":"shopping. We hope you enjoy"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":55.8,"endTime":56.64,"body":"today's episode."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":56.0,"endTime":60.5,"body":"So I think you share"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":56.0,"endTime":60.5,"body":"this with me but you and I are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":60.5,"endTime":65.36,"body":"both incredibly fortunate that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":60.5,"endTime":65.36,"body":"our teens, for some inexplicable"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":65.36,"endTime":69.59,"body":"reason seem to like hanging out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":65.36,"endTime":69.59,"body":"with us. Yeah, there are phases,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":69.59,"endTime":73.49,"body":"but I'd say on average, yes. The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":69.59,"endTime":73.49,"body":"other night, we were having"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":73.52,"endTime":75.08,"body":"dinner out on the back deck."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":75.14,"endTime":78.14,"body":"Wait, is this the night"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":75.14,"endTime":78.14,"body":"where you had your accident?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":79.89,"endTime":83.19,"body":"I used air quotes. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":79.89,"endTime":83.19,"body":"really appreciate you not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":83.19,"endTime":87.81,"body":"raising this in a public forum"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":83.19,"endTime":87.81,"body":"where I would have to be deeply"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":87.81,"endTime":90.69,"body":"embarrassed. You can cut it but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":87.81,"endTime":90.69,"body":"I'm putting it right back in."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":90.87,"endTime":96.69,"body":"Yeah, we've established prior"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":90.87,"endTime":96.69,"body":"episodes. Yes, my quote,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":96.72,"endTime":102.96,"body":"accident. So very briefly, from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":96.72,"endTime":102.96,"body":"my back in the backyard. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":102.96,"endTime":106.53,"body":"texted Greg that I just fell"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":102.96,"endTime":106.53,"body":"into my camp fire."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":106.0,"endTime":114.7,"body":"This is not figurative. I did"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":106.0,"endTime":114.7,"body":"not figuratively fall into the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":114.7,"endTime":115.36,"body":"campfire."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":115.36,"endTime":117.61,"body":"I'm laughing and which"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":115.36,"endTime":117.61,"body":"makes me a horrible person."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":118.57,"endTime":121.12,"body":"Folks, obviously you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":118.57,"endTime":121.12,"body":"can't see Greg but he's kind of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":121.12,"endTime":124.0,"body":"loosened it. Now. I've not seen"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":121.12,"endTime":124.0,"body":"him this happy in quite some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":124.0,"endTime":127.9,"body":"time. I didn't get burned at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":124.0,"endTime":127.9,"body":"all. I got scraped up pretty"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":127.9,"endTime":133.03,"body":"good. And I kid you not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":127.9,"endTime":133.03,"body":"unwinding on my back working up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":133.03,"endTime":136.78,"body":"at the stars. And my very first"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":133.03,"endTime":136.78,"body":"thought is Greg's gonna find"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":136.78,"endTime":137.62,"body":"this really funny."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":137.65,"endTime":140.47,"body":"I was so touched what I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":137.65,"endTime":140.47,"body":"pictured based on your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":140.47,"endTime":143.59,"body":"description was in Raiders of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":140.47,"endTime":143.59,"body":"the Lost Ark. The guy's face"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":143.59,"endTime":146.53,"body":"melts toward the end of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":143.59,"endTime":146.53,"body":"movie. I pictured you like that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":146.56,"endTime":147.46,"body":"texting me."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":154.87,"endTime":158.83,"body":"I was like, Oh, this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":154.87,"endTime":158.83,"body":"hurts so bad. Greg is gonna find"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":158.83,"endTime":159.85,"body":"this really funny."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":159.91,"endTime":160.63,"body":"And I did."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":160.72,"endTime":164.08,"body":"And you did. Anyway,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":160.72,"endTime":164.08,"body":"we're sitting around the table."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":164.11,"endTime":167.56,"body":"And the kids have a shared"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":164.11,"endTime":167.56,"body":"friend group. They were in class"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":167.56,"endTime":171.94,"body":"and their friends started"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":167.56,"endTime":171.94,"body":"texting one another phrases that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":171.94,"endTime":176.05,"body":"my kids would use in regular"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":171.94,"endTime":176.05,"body":"language. And they're these old"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":176.05,"endTime":179.77,"body":"timey ones that somehow they get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":176.05,"endTime":179.77,"body":"from me. And the point of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":179.77,"endTime":183.52,"body":"story at the dinner table was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":179.77,"endTime":183.52,"body":"they were thanking me for making"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":183.52,"endTime":187.84,"body":"them talk to like somebody who"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":183.52,"endTime":187.84,"body":"was born in 1850. I go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":187.84,"endTime":191.83,"body":"immediately to defensive mode."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":187.84,"endTime":191.83,"body":"I'm like, That is totally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":191.83,"endTime":196.03,"body":"untrue. I don't do that at all."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":191.83,"endTime":196.03,"body":"And they started rattling off."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":196.27,"endTime":201.82,"body":"Yeah, your dollar shirt in a day"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":196.27,"endTime":201.82,"body":"late. Oh, Katie bar the door."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":202.0,"endTime":205.45,"body":"What am I going to do? I got to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":202.0,"endTime":205.45,"body":"see a man about a horse. Are we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":205.45,"endTime":208.09,"body":"going to come tomorrow? Well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":205.45,"endTime":208.09,"body":"God Willing and the creek don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":208.09,"endTime":214.87,"body":"rise. It went on and on. And my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":208.09,"endTime":214.87,"body":"favorite that I didn't even know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":214.87,"endTime":218.53,"body":"I used they would come out and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":214.87,"endTime":218.53,"body":"say yeah, I haven't studied for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":218.53,"endTime":220.69,"body":"the test tomorrow. And I'd say"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":218.53,"endTime":220.69,"body":"well, at least you'll die"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":220.69,"endTime":221.47,"body":"standing up."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":221.61,"endTime":223.95,"body":"Were you raised in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":221.61,"endTime":223.95,"body":"Depression? Where did you get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":223.95,"endTime":224.52,"body":"these?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":224.64,"endTime":228.57,"body":"We have established"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":224.64,"endTime":228.57,"body":"that I would have made an ideal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":228.57,"endTime":233.16,"body":"cowboy except for one minor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":228.57,"endTime":233.16,"body":"thing. And that is I am"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":233.22,"endTime":237.72,"body":"terrified of horses. Really. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":233.22,"endTime":237.72,"body":"think any horse ever born either"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":237.72,"endTime":244.26,"body":"belongs in dog food or Elmers"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":237.72,"endTime":244.26,"body":"glue. Horses terrify me. Other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":244.26,"endTime":248.82,"body":"than that, I would have made an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":244.26,"endTime":248.82,"body":"awesome cowboy. But no, I can't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":248.82,"endTime":254.01,"body":"even explain where it came from."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":248.82,"endTime":254.01,"body":"And some I can pin on my mom. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":254.01,"endTime":258.12,"body":"one that they raised was well be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":254.01,"endTime":258.12,"body":"careful what you pray for."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":258.18,"endTime":262.32,"body":"Because God might just give it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":258.18,"endTime":262.32,"body":"to you. That one I can pin on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":262.32,"endTime":267.33,"body":"mom. Okay. The Bob's your uncle"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":262.32,"endTime":267.33,"body":"falls under the one a little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":267.33,"endTime":268.38,"body":"chin music."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":271.35,"endTime":274.29,"body":"Well, the last one that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":271.35,"endTime":274.29,"body":"you said I like a lot actually."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":274.35,"endTime":277.29,"body":"The gist of it is be careful"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":274.35,"endTime":277.29,"body":"what you wish for. And I have to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":277.29,"endTime":280.41,"body":"say to be honest, that's a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":277.29,"endTime":280.41,"body":"phrase that I utter a whole lot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":280.41,"endTime":282.84,"body":"when someone has just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":280.41,"endTime":282.84,"body":"successfully defended their"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":282.84,"endTime":286.65,"body":"dissertation proposal. I will"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":282.84,"endTime":286.65,"body":"generally say some version of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":286.65,"endTime":289.44,"body":"well, we've got good news and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":286.65,"endTime":289.44,"body":"bad news. The good news is that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":289.44,"endTime":292.32,"body":"you passed and the bad news is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":289.44,"endTime":292.32,"body":"that you have to do it. I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":292.32,"endTime":295.23,"body":"they appreciate that phrase more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":292.32,"endTime":295.23,"body":"and more as they get deeper into"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":295.23,"endTime":296.16,"body":"their dissertation."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":296.19,"endTime":299.97,"body":"We all experienced that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":296.19,"endTime":299.97,"body":"as a number of years ago by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":300.0,"endTime":303.63,"body":"We're and I were really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":300.0,"endTime":303.63,"body":"fortunate, and we got a multi"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":303.63,"endTime":308.49,"body":"million dollar grant from NIH."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":303.63,"endTime":308.49,"body":"And we went out to celebrate, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":308.49,"endTime":311.85,"body":"each got a beer and sat across"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":308.49,"endTime":311.85,"body":"from each other. And we're just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":311.85,"endTime":316.65,"body":"shell shocked. Because the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":311.85,"endTime":316.65,"body":"correlate of be careful for what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":316.65,"endTime":323.73,"body":"you wish for is, what were we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":316.65,"endTime":323.73,"body":"thinking? It wasn't like trying"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":323.73,"endTime":326.34,"body":"to be funny. I mean, we were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":323.73,"endTime":326.34,"body":"sitting there, and we were like,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":326.34,"endTime":331.56,"body":"holy crap, remind me why we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":326.34,"endTime":331.56,"body":"wanted this grant. Because now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":331.56,"endTime":335.22,"body":"you gotta go do it. Yeah. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":331.56,"endTime":335.22,"body":"what got me thinking about all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":335.22,"endTime":338.91,"body":"of this, besides the fact I fell"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":335.22,"endTime":338.91,"body":"into a campfire, and again, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":338.91,"endTime":341.91,"body":"want to thank you as a friend"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":338.91,"endTime":341.91,"body":"for holding that in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":341.91,"endTime":343.92,"body":"confidence that I shared it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":341.91,"endTime":343.92,"body":"with."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":344.609,"endTime":347.399,"body":"Sure. And I think your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":344.609,"endTime":347.399,"body":"left eyelid is gonna grow back."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":347.51,"endTime":352.85,"body":"So that's why God gave"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":347.51,"endTime":352.85,"body":"me two. We had a family"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":352.85,"endTime":356.72,"body":"vacation. It was my family, my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":352.85,"endTime":356.72,"body":"brother's family. My mom was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":356.72,"endTime":360.17,"body":"there. My kid was four years"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":356.72,"endTime":360.17,"body":"old, running through the house"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":360.17,"endTime":367.55,"body":"stubbed their toe and runs to my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":360.17,"endTime":367.55,"body":"mom crying. And my mom brushes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":367.55,"endTime":371.84,"body":"the hair out of their eyes, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":367.55,"endTime":371.84,"body":"says, Well, sweetie, that's why"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":371.84,"endTime":377.75,"body":"God made shoes. And from the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":371.84,"endTime":377.75,"body":"kitchen, my brother yells, that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":377.84,"endTime":381.38,"body":"is where we came from. That's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":377.84,"endTime":381.38,"body":"why Patrick and I are the way we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":381.38,"endTime":385.67,"body":"are right there. So yep, that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":381.38,"endTime":385.67,"body":"why God made two eyelids. There"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":385.67,"endTime":389.24,"body":"you have a spare. So thank you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":385.67,"endTime":389.24,"body":"for that. Yeah, you're welcome."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":389.33,"endTime":392.6,"body":"Bauer and I had a chance to do a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":389.33,"endTime":392.6,"body":"series of talks recently for the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":392.6,"endTime":396.47,"body":"American Psychological"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":392.6,"endTime":396.47,"body":"Association. It was on intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":396.47,"endTime":401.0,"body":"longitudinal data. And it was a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":396.47,"endTime":401.0,"body":"lot of fun. JP Laurenceau also"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":401.0,"endTime":405.02,"body":"gave a presentation as part of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":401.0,"endTime":405.02,"body":"the series. If folks are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":405.02,"endTime":410.33,"body":"interested, we have on our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":405.02,"endTime":410.33,"body":"centerstat.org webpage, there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":410.33,"endTime":414.53,"body":"a tab called resources. And we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":410.33,"endTime":414.53,"body":"have all the downloads, we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":414.53,"endTime":418.22,"body":"links to the videos and whatnot."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":414.53,"endTime":418.22,"body":"But we gave three 75-minute"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":418.22,"endTime":421.64,"body":"lectures on intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":418.22,"endTime":421.64,"body":"longitudinal data. One of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":421.67,"endTime":428.3,"body":"early slide headings I have is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":421.67,"endTime":428.3,"body":"be careful for what you ask. ILD"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":428.3,"endTime":431.54,"body":"which is the intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":428.3,"endTime":431.54,"body":"longitudinal data ILD is one of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":431.54,"endTime":435.02,"body":"those things where people say"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":431.54,"endTime":435.02,"body":"you have to gather intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":435.02,"endTime":437.87,"body":"data, you have to do diary data,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":435.02,"endTime":437.87,"body":"you have to do ecological"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":437.87,"endTime":440.48,"body":"momentary assessment. So you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":437.87,"endTime":440.48,"body":"have to you have to you have to."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":440.75,"endTime":444.53,"body":"And so you do this boatload of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":440.75,"endTime":444.53,"body":"work, and then you get it and go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":444.53,"endTime":447.2,"body":"back to the person and you say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":444.53,"endTime":447.2,"body":"Okay, well, what do I do with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":447.2,"endTime":451.37,"body":"it? Now? It's like, oh, yeah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":447.2,"endTime":451.37,"body":"that's really complicated. I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":451.37,"endTime":455.63,"body":"not sure. And it's one of those."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":451.37,"endTime":455.63,"body":"Okay, you fed it? Now you own"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":455.63,"endTime":460.13,"body":"it? Yeah. What do you do when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":455.63,"endTime":460.13,"body":"you put in blood, sweat and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":460.13,"endTime":465.59,"body":"tears, and get this intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":460.13,"endTime":465.59,"body":"data of day to day, hour to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":465.59,"endTime":469.1,"body":"hour, minute to minute, and then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":465.59,"endTime":469.1,"body":"by gosh, you got to do something"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":469.1,"endTime":469.49,"body":"with it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":469.53,"endTime":472.56,"body":"So let's do a little bit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":469.53,"endTime":472.56,"body":"of clarifying to start when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":472.56,"endTime":474.72,"body":"people say they're going to do a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":472.56,"endTime":474.72,"body":"longitudinal study, that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":474.72,"endTime":477.6,"body":"actually means different things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":474.72,"endTime":477.6,"body":"to different people, can we at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":477.6,"endTime":483.81,"body":"least try to differentiate among"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":477.6,"endTime":483.81,"body":"panel data or time series data"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":483.81,"endTime":487.14,"body":"or intensive longitudinal? All"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":483.81,"endTime":487.14,"body":"of these seem to have some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":487.14,"endTime":490.47,"body":"blurred lines here? So can we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":487.14,"endTime":490.47,"body":"start trying to untangle that,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":490.59,"endTime":493.35,"body":"I feel like we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":490.59,"endTime":493.35,"body":"think about three different"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":493.35,"endTime":497.4,"body":"clusters of design. One is what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":493.35,"endTime":497.4,"body":"you referred to as the panel"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":497.43,"endTime":501.54,"body":"design. And this is old school"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":497.43,"endTime":501.54,"body":"man, this goes back back back"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":501.54,"endTime":504.87,"body":"back. What this is, is what a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":501.54,"endTime":504.87,"body":"lot of us think about when we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":504.87,"endTime":508.59,"body":"think about longitudinal data."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":504.87,"endTime":508.59,"body":"That is you have a large sample"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":508.59,"endTime":513.33,"body":"of individuals, and they are all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":508.59,"endTime":513.33,"body":"assessed at the same time, at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":513.36,"endTime":518.58,"body":"maybe a one year increment or a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":513.36,"endTime":518.58,"body":"two year increment, you get a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":518.58,"endTime":522.96,"body":"sample of kids that range"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":518.58,"endTime":522.96,"body":"between 10 and 15 years of age"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":522.96,"endTime":527.43,"body":"at time one, and you assess them"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":522.96,"endTime":527.43,"body":"once a year for three years, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":527.43,"endTime":531.81,"body":"can think about it in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":527.43,"endTime":531.81,"body":"genesis of the term panels of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":531.81,"endTime":536.01,"body":"data, we get the first wave, or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":531.81,"endTime":536.01,"body":"the first panel, the second, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":536.01,"endTime":539.91,"body":"third, that's kind of bread and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":536.01,"endTime":539.91,"body":"butter for a lot of areas of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":539.91,"endTime":540.51,"body":"research."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":540.57,"endTime":543.45,"body":"And I wonder if it's bread"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":540.57,"endTime":543.45,"body":"and butter, because it's easy to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":543.45,"endTime":546.18,"body":"get access to those data, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":543.45,"endTime":546.18,"body":"don't really mean easy, but it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":546.18,"endTime":549.72,"body":"might be easier for people in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":546.18,"endTime":549.72,"body":"education, it might be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":549.78,"endTime":554.04,"body":"relatively easy to go gather"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":549.78,"endTime":554.04,"body":"data from kids every fall or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":554.04,"endTime":557.46,"body":"every spring, where it might be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":554.04,"endTime":557.46,"body":"the case that a school naturally"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":557.46,"endTime":560.52,"body":"gathers data at those particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":557.46,"endTime":560.52,"body":"times. So one of the things I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":560.52,"endTime":565.56,"body":"kind of worry about with panel"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":560.52,"endTime":565.56,"body":"designs is why people choose the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":565.56,"endTime":568.68,"body":"spacings that they do and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":565.56,"endTime":568.68,"body":"whether or not it actually makes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":568.68,"endTime":571.11,"body":"sense. Because I think sometimes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":568.68,"endTime":571.11,"body":"people just do it out of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":571.11,"endTime":571.95,"body":"convenience."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":571.98,"endTime":574.53,"body":"Why do you rob banks?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":571.98,"endTime":574.53,"body":"And it's that's where they keep"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":574.53,"endTime":578.91,"body":"the money. Why do you assessing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":574.53,"endTime":578.91,"body":"you really in schools, that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":578.91,"endTime":582.45,"body":"where I can access the kids and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":578.91,"endTime":582.45,"body":"they have the internal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":582.48,"endTime":586.02,"body":"documentation that I can draw"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":582.48,"endTime":586.02,"body":"whatever that might be. I think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":586.02,"endTime":589.41,"body":"that's part of it. I think part"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":586.02,"endTime":589.41,"body":"of it is those designs are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":589.41,"endTime":592.92,"body":"highly amenable to particular"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":589.41,"endTime":592.92,"body":"kinds of research questions. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":592.92,"endTime":596.79,"body":"if you are interested in factors"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":592.92,"endTime":596.79,"body":"that are related with end of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":596.79,"endTime":600.0,"body":"grade tests throughout"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":596.79,"endTime":600.0,"body":"elementary and middle school,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":600.0,"endTime":603.24,"body":"Well, one end of grade test"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":600.0,"endTime":603.24,"body":"occurs at the end of grade"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":603.24,"endTime":606.78,"body":"three, and four and five. And so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":603.24,"endTime":606.78,"body":"there's a nice natural kind of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":606.81,"endTime":609.72,"body":"element to that, if you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":606.81,"endTime":609.72,"body":"looking at developmental"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":609.72,"endTime":615.12,"body":"trajectories of substance use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":609.72,"endTime":615.12,"body":"from onset into regular use, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":615.12,"endTime":618.51,"body":"adolescents may be taking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":615.12,"endTime":618.51,"body":"assessments every six months or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":618.51,"endTime":623.79,"body":"every 12 months may be amenable"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":618.51,"endTime":623.79,"body":"to that. But part of it is a lot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":623.79,"endTime":627.93,"body":"of us become unstuck in time and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":623.79,"endTime":627.93,"body":"forget that we didn't always"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":627.93,"endTime":632.49,"body":"have an iPhone 10 in our pocket,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":627.93,"endTime":632.49,"body":"not hyperbolically. Yeah. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":632.52,"endTime":636.75,"body":"iPhone has more computational"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":632.52,"endTime":636.75,"body":"power than the guidance system"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":636.75,"endTime":641.1,"body":"of the space shuttle, right. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":636.75,"endTime":641.1,"body":"all of us have some version of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":641.1,"endTime":645.6,"body":"that within reach. And so we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":641.1,"endTime":645.6,"body":"didn't have the technology to do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":645.6,"endTime":649.08,"body":"these kind of daily assessments"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":645.6,"endTime":649.08,"body":"or things like that. I mean,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":649.08,"endTime":652.41,"body":"people did this, don't get us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":649.08,"endTime":652.41,"body":"wrong. Nioh Bolger and Sean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":652.41,"endTime":655.44,"body":"Felipe, Lauren, so have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":652.41,"endTime":655.44,"body":"wonderful textbook on this. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":655.44,"endTime":658.26,"body":"they talk about some of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":655.44,"endTime":658.26,"body":"history of these. It's not like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":658.26,"endTime":662.31,"body":"we discovered intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":658.26,"endTime":662.31,"body":"longitudinal data this past"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":662.31,"endTime":665.64,"body":"year. I mean, people have been"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":662.31,"endTime":665.64,"body":"doing this, but technology is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":665.64,"endTime":670.47,"body":"another rate limiting step. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":665.64,"endTime":670.47,"body":"can't randomly ping people"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":670.53,"endTime":673.02,"body":"throughout the day in 1983."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":673.079,"endTime":675.329,"body":"This is starting to get at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":673.079,"endTime":675.329,"body":"one of the questions that I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":675.329,"endTime":678.929,"body":"asked people who say they want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":675.329,"endTime":678.929,"body":"to do longitudinal designs, that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":678.929,"endTime":683.849,"body":"they have maybe the hardest time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":678.929,"endTime":683.849,"body":"answering and that is about the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":683.849,"endTime":687.269,"body":"timing of this change process"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":683.849,"endTime":687.269,"body":"that they're trying to study,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":687.269,"endTime":689.339,"body":"you know, so if, if I have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":687.269,"endTime":689.339,"body":"someone who says we're going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":689.339,"endTime":693.269,"body":"gather data from people every"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":689.339,"endTime":693.269,"body":"fall, I always ask them why how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":693.269,"endTime":696.689,"body":"does that align with the change"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":693.269,"endTime":696.689,"body":"process? How do you know that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":696.689,"endTime":699.719,"body":"you're in the sweet spot that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":696.689,"endTime":699.719,"body":"there has been enough time for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":699.719,"endTime":702.989,"body":"the change that you want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":699.719,"endTime":702.989,"body":"study to occur but not too much"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":702.989,"endTime":706.259,"body":"time? It's a question that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":702.989,"endTime":706.259,"body":"people have a really hard time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":706.259,"endTime":709.409,"body":"answering. Now we have this kind"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":706.259,"endTime":709.409,"body":"of technology that you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":709.409,"endTime":712.949,"body":"describing, that allows us maybe"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":709.409,"endTime":712.949,"body":"to be a bit more flexible at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":712.949,"endTime":715.979,"body":"finding the sweet spot. But just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":712.949,"endTime":715.979,"body":"because we gather a whole lot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":715.979,"endTime":718.409,"body":"more data doesn't necessarily"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":715.979,"endTime":718.409,"body":"make that easier"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":718.44,"endTime":720.9,"body":"what swinging the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":718.44,"endTime":720.9,"body":"pendulum all the way to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":720.9,"endTime":725.25,"body":"other end. So a panel design,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":720.9,"endTime":725.25,"body":"I'm going to make up numbers,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":725.25,"endTime":730.05,"body":"you have a sample of 300 kids"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":725.25,"endTime":730.05,"body":"that USS once a year for three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":730.05,"endTime":733.05,"body":"years. Now we're going to swing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":730.05,"endTime":733.05,"body":"it all the way to the other side"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":733.05,"endTime":736.92,"body":"to what might be called"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":733.05,"endTime":736.92,"body":"traditional time series data,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":736.98,"endTime":740.97,"body":"where panel data has a very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":736.98,"endTime":740.97,"body":"large sample of individuals"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":740.97,"endTime":744.69,"body":"assessed on a small number of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":740.97,"endTime":744.69,"body":"repeated assessments. Time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":744.69,"endTime":749.49,"body":"Series is exactly the opposite."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":744.69,"endTime":749.49,"body":"What a classic time series is,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":749.55,"endTime":756.6,"body":"may be one unit of observation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":749.55,"endTime":756.6,"body":"that is followed 300 times well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":756.6,"endTime":759.42,"body":"you might ask yourself, why on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":756.6,"endTime":759.42,"body":"earth would you ever do that?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":759.57,"endTime":765.21,"body":"Well, imagine you were studying"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":759.57,"endTime":765.21,"body":"the closing price of the s\u0026p 500"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":765.21,"endTime":769.44,"body":"index every day for a year."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":765.21,"endTime":769.44,"body":"However many business days there"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":769.44,"endTime":773.04,"body":"are in that 300 and some let's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":769.44,"endTime":773.04,"body":"just say 300. What you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":773.04,"endTime":777.81,"body":"primarily interested in is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":773.04,"endTime":777.81,"body":"looking at forecasting, if we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":777.81,"endTime":781.83,"body":"can try to understand these day"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":777.81,"endTime":781.83,"body":"to day to day fluctuations, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":781.83,"endTime":788.07,"body":"Ben Bernanke is rattling his"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":781.83,"endTime":788.07,"body":"sword about jumbo increase in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":788.1,"endTime":793.29,"body":"the interest rate, what is that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":788.1,"endTime":793.29,"body":"going to impact the s\u0026p tomorrow"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":793.29,"endTime":797.13,"body":"or the day after the day after,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":793.29,"endTime":797.13,"body":"and then we've all concluded"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":797.13,"endTime":801.42,"body":"that everyone listening made a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":797.13,"endTime":801.42,"body":"massive vocational error by not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":801.42,"endTime":805.86,"body":"going in to econ and marketing."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":801.42,"endTime":805.86,"body":"Because what you do is then move"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":805.86,"endTime":809.1,"body":"your money around based on other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":805.86,"endTime":809.1,"body":"information because you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":809.1,"endTime":812.76,"body":"forecasting some future state"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":809.1,"endTime":812.76,"body":"and then we give him the Nobel"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":812.76,"endTime":817.47,"body":"Prize for Economics. He got a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":812.76,"endTime":817.47,"body":"freakin Nobel Prize. He's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":817.53,"endTime":823.02,"body":"awesome. What comes in here is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":817.53,"endTime":823.02,"body":"thinking about idiographic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":823.02,"endTime":826.2,"body":"versus in nomothetic."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":823.02,"endTime":826.2,"body":"Orientation to research. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":826.2,"endTime":828.69,"body":"talked about this before. I know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":826.2,"endTime":828.69,"body":"right? videographic and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":828.69,"endTime":829.38,"body":"nomothetic."},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":828.69,"endTime":831.39,"body":"You got your word a day"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":828.69,"endTime":831.39,"body":"calendar again."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":831.39,"endTime":835.0,"body":"Of course, I never"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":831.39,"endTime":835.0,"body":"remember the definition. So I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":835.076,"endTime":839.89,"body":"have my mnemonics. ideograph. Ik"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":835.076,"endTime":839.89,"body":"is idiot. It's one you have one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":839.965,"endTime":844.629,"body":"idiot. That's your graphic. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":839.965,"endTime":844.629,"body":"nomothetic is no more. I don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":844.705,"endTime":849.519,"body":"want any more sample, right? No"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":844.705,"endTime":849.519,"body":"most that what nomothetic is, is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":849.594,"endTime":853.807,"body":"studying general laws. idia"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":849.594,"endTime":853.807,"body":"graphic is studying specific"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":853.882,"endTime":858.02,"body":"facts. All right? Well, if we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":853.882,"endTime":858.02,"body":"have a time series that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":858.095,"endTime":862.383,"body":"focused on a single observation,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":858.095,"endTime":862.383,"body":"we are highly limited in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":862.458,"endTime":866.445,"body":"generalizing to other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":862.458,"endTime":866.445,"body":"individuals that are similar to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":866.52,"endTime":870.733,"body":"that one under study, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":866.52,"endTime":870.733,"body":"literally have a sample size of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":870.808,"endTime":874.645,"body":"one. Now we have 300"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":870.808,"endTime":874.645,"body":"observations, but we have very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":874.72,"endTime":878.782,"body":"little basis for generalizing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":874.72,"endTime":878.782,"body":"back to a population but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":878.857,"endTime":883.446,"body":"swinging the pendulum back to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":878.857,"endTime":883.446,"body":"the panel, and we have three or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":883.521,"endTime":887.734,"body":"400 subjects, so we have a much"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":883.521,"endTime":887.734,"body":"stronger ability to make"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":887.809,"endTime":892.022,"body":"generalizations back to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":887.809,"endTime":892.022,"body":"population. But we only have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":892.097,"endTime":896.761,"body":"three repeated measures are for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":892.097,"endTime":896.761,"body":"repeated measures. We may have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":896.836,"endTime":901.726,"body":"done a horrible job in assessing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":896.836,"endTime":901.726,"body":"how these constructs unfold over"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":901.801,"endTime":906.616,"body":"time. Going back to my kids list"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":901.801,"endTime":906.616,"body":"is you You got to pick the hill"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":906.691,"endTime":911.43,"body":"you're going to die on. So those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":906.691,"endTime":911.43,"body":"are the bookends now in comes,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":911.506,"endTime":916.245,"body":"why can't we all just get along?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":911.506,"endTime":916.245,"body":"And let's take a little bit of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":916.32,"endTime":920.758,"body":"one and a little bit of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":916.32,"endTime":920.758,"body":"other, why the enemies just get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":920.834,"endTime":925.272,"body":"along, and we get intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":920.834,"endTime":925.272,"body":"longitudinal data and what that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":925.347,"endTime":929.861,"body":"is we have what we might think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":925.347,"endTime":929.861,"body":"is a representative sample of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":929.936,"endTime":934.299,"body":"individuals upon which we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":929.936,"endTime":934.299,"body":"draw generalized conclusions"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":934.374,"endTime":938.737,"body":"about the population. What is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":934.374,"endTime":938.737,"body":"that number, I have no idea,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":938.813,"endTime":943.176,"body":"maybe 50 people, maybe 80"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":938.813,"endTime":943.176,"body":"people, maybe 100 people, not as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":943.251,"endTime":947.614,"body":"much as a panel, but vastly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":943.251,"endTime":947.614,"body":"bigger than a time series. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":947.689,"endTime":952.053,"body":"instead of having 300 repeated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":947.689,"endTime":952.053,"body":"measures, or three repeated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":952.128,"endTime":956.566,"body":"measures, maybe we have 15, or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":952.128,"endTime":956.566,"body":"20, or 40, maybe we have 40,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":956.641,"endTime":960.779,"body":"repeated measures on ad"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":956.641,"endTime":960.779,"body":"individuals, that starts moving"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":960.854,"endTime":965.669,"body":"us into that interstitial region"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":960.854,"endTime":965.669,"body":"of intensive longitudinal data."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":965.699,"endTime":969.119,"body":"When I think about this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":965.699,"endTime":969.119,"body":"with regard to generalizability,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":969.119,"endTime":972.359,"body":"on the time series side, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":969.119,"endTime":972.359,"body":"usually think of it as that is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":972.359,"endTime":974.639,"body":"the population that they want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":972.359,"endTime":974.639,"body":"study, right? If it was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":974.639,"endTime":978.119,"body":"something to do with the gross"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":974.639,"endTime":978.119,"body":"national product of a particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":978.119,"endTime":981.029,"body":"country, then I assume you want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":978.119,"endTime":981.029,"body":"to make inferences about that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":981.029,"endTime":983.909,"body":"particular country. And so if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":981.029,"endTime":983.909,"body":"there's any generalizability to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":983.909,"endTime":987.209,"body":"be going on, it might be about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":983.909,"endTime":987.209,"body":"what you could expect at other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":987.209,"endTime":990.689,"body":"time points in the future. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":987.209,"endTime":990.689,"body":"this, we're trying to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":990.719,"endTime":994.829,"body":"generalizability across"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":990.719,"endTime":994.829,"body":"individuals as best we can. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":994.829,"endTime":997.979,"body":"we're getting a lot of benefit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":994.829,"endTime":997.979,"body":"by having many, many measures,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":997.979,"endTime":1000.469,"body":"because we're gonna have a lot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":997.979,"endTime":1000.469,"body":"more sensitivity to study the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1000.469,"endTime":1003.589,"body":"process that's of interest. So I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1000.469,"endTime":1003.589,"body":"like this very much. But again,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1003.589,"endTime":1005.179,"body":"be careful what you wish for, as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1003.589,"endTime":1005.179,"body":"you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1005.179,"endTime":1008.149,"body":"listening, think about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1005.179,"endTime":1008.149,"body":"what's near and dear to you in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1008.149,"endTime":1011.239,"body":"terms of theoretical questions,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1008.149,"endTime":1011.239,"body":"whatever that might be in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1011.239,"endTime":1014.989,"body":"whatever area you're studying,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1011.239,"endTime":1014.989,"body":"and think about causal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1014.989,"endTime":1017.569,"body":"influences, right, we're going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1014.989,"endTime":1017.569,"body":"to take a shot or whiskey and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1017.569,"endTime":1021.769,"body":"slam it on that saloon bar. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1017.569,"endTime":1021.769,"body":"we're going to say my goal is to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1021.769,"endTime":1026.119,"body":"infer cause even from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1021.769,"endTime":1026.119,"body":"observational data, alright, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1026.179,"endTime":1029.929,"body":"all of us want to do that. Don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1026.179,"endTime":1029.929,"body":"be a wiener and say we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1029.929,"endTime":1034.129,"body":"looking at associations, we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1029.929,"endTime":1034.129,"body":"looking at predictability, just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1034.129,"endTime":1038.479,"body":"own it, take the shot or whiskey"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1034.129,"endTime":1038.479,"body":"and say that I am inferring"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1038.479,"endTime":1041.899,"body":"cause about what I'm studying,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1038.479,"endTime":1041.899,"body":"think about what Greg talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1041.899,"endTime":1044.989,"body":"about in terms of that time,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1041.899,"endTime":1044.989,"body":"like so when I came up through"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1044.989,"endTime":1048.739,"body":"the system, there was a lot of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1044.989,"endTime":1048.739,"body":"interest in the relation between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1048.739,"endTime":1053.479,"body":"negative effect and substance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1048.739,"endTime":1053.479,"body":"use. Sometimes it's called self"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1053.479,"endTime":1057.739,"body":"medication model that the reason"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1053.479,"endTime":1057.739,"body":"people drink is to self medicate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1057.739,"endTime":1060.979,"body":"with alcohol, have negative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1057.739,"endTime":1060.979,"body":"feelings and trying to make"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1060.979,"endTime":1065.599,"body":"those go away. When I was on a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1060.979,"endTime":1065.599,"body":"research project, we looked at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1065.599,"endTime":1069.919,"body":"negative effect when a person"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1065.599,"endTime":1069.919,"body":"was 15 years old, predicting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1069.949,"endTime":1074.269,"body":"alcohol use when they were 16"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1069.949,"endTime":1074.269,"body":"years old, knows that what the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1074.269,"endTime":1077.959,"body":"theory is predicting, because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1074.269,"endTime":1077.959,"body":"when you peel back a couple of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1077.959,"endTime":1083.089,"body":"layers on the onion, what the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1077.959,"endTime":1083.089,"body":"theory is really saying is, if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1083.089,"endTime":1087.949,"body":"you experience a negative effect"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1083.089,"endTime":1087.949,"body":"during the day, are you more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1087.949,"endTime":1091.879,"body":"likely to drink that night?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1087.949,"endTime":1091.879,"body":"Right? And if you have had a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1091.879,"endTime":1096.469,"body":"drinking episode that night, are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1091.879,"endTime":1096.469,"body":"you more likely to experience"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1096.499,"endTime":1100.429,"body":"negative affectivity? The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1096.499,"endTime":1100.429,"body":"following day, we don't like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1100.429,"endTime":1104.029,"body":"destroys between theoretical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1100.429,"endTime":1104.029,"body":"models and statistical models,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1104.209,"endTime":1108.049,"body":"because that is an abject threat"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1104.209,"endTime":1108.049,"body":"to internal validity. Right?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1108.049,"endTime":1110.689,"body":"Internal validity is the extent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1108.049,"endTime":1110.689,"body":"to which you're making an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1110.719,"endTime":1115.129,"body":"accurate causal attribution"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1110.719,"endTime":1115.129,"body":"about what your study. And if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1115.129,"endTime":1119.389,"body":"you look at do you feel"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1115.129,"endTime":1119.389,"body":"depressed and anxious at age 15?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1119.539,"endTime":1124.009,"body":"And how much did you drink at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1119.539,"endTime":1124.009,"body":"age 16. That is not testing the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1124.009,"endTime":1126.079,"body":"theory as the theory lives."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1126.109,"endTime":1129.379,"body":"I don't know if people"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1126.109,"endTime":1129.379,"body":"actively think about it, or they"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1129.379,"endTime":1132.049,"body":"just say, well, there's time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1129.379,"endTime":1132.049,"body":"when I think about that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1132.049,"endTime":1135.649,"body":"particular model that has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1132.049,"endTime":1135.649,"body":"negative effect. And then some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1135.649,"endTime":1139.939,"body":"version of substance use in my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1135.649,"endTime":1139.939,"body":"head, I picture this panel model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1139.939,"endTime":1144.109,"body":"with all kinds of little things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1139.939,"endTime":1144.109,"body":"back and forth. It's like this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1144.109,"endTime":1147.709,"body":"accordion that if you pulled it,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1144.109,"endTime":1147.709,"body":"you would see whether it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1147.739,"endTime":1151.309,"body":"hourly or daily, all of this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1147.739,"endTime":1151.309,"body":"potential back and forth with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1151.309,"endTime":1154.819,"body":"all these little boxes that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1151.309,"endTime":1154.819,"body":"never see. But what happens when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1154.819,"endTime":1158.839,"body":"someone does that study that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1154.819,"endTime":1158.839,"body":"goes from year one to year two,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1158.869,"endTime":1161.539,"body":"you've sort of collapsed all of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1158.869,"endTime":1161.539,"body":"those boxes. And it's just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1161.539,"endTime":1165.679,"body":"really not clear to me what you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1161.539,"endTime":1165.679,"body":"get out the other side, if you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1165.679,"endTime":1169.489,"body":"had some kind of stasis in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1165.679,"endTime":1169.489,"body":"process would happen from one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1169.489,"endTime":1172.309,"body":"day to the next, then maybe"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1169.489,"endTime":1172.309,"body":"you're going to get something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1172.309,"endTime":1174.949,"body":"that's informative when you look"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1172.309,"endTime":1174.949,"body":"at negative effect, and you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1174.949,"endTime":1178.279,"body":"one and substance use it year"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1174.949,"endTime":1178.279,"body":"two, but when there are more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1178.279,"endTime":1181.099,"body":"interesting processes that are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1178.279,"endTime":1181.099,"body":"going on more locally with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1181.099,"endTime":1183.979,"body":"regard to time, I just don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1181.099,"endTime":1183.979,"body":"even know what the heck you get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1183.979,"endTime":1186.649,"body":"out when you look at things at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1183.979,"endTime":1186.649,"body":"these broad broad time points."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1186.769,"endTime":1190.489,"body":"So the potential here is just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1186.769,"endTime":1190.489,"body":"tremendous. And it seems to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1190.579,"endTime":1193.549,"body":"much more on point to the change"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1190.579,"endTime":1193.549,"body":"process that you actually care"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1193.549,"endTime":1193.879,"body":"about."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1194.029,"endTime":1197.149,"body":"That's how I really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1194.029,"endTime":1197.149,"body":"like thinking about it is how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1197.149,"endTime":1201.649,"body":"can we gather and evaluate data"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1197.149,"endTime":1201.649,"body":"and know wave that is optimally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1201.649,"endTime":1205.849,"body":"consistent with what our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1201.649,"endTime":1205.849,"body":"theories predict there might be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1205.849,"endTime":1209.749,"body":"one year lags. Yeah, imagine"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1205.849,"endTime":1209.749,"body":"that Ben Bernanke is home"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1209.749,"endTime":1215.089,"body":"polishing his Nobel medal. So if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1209.749,"endTime":1215.089,"body":"we institute an increase in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1215.089,"endTime":1219.049,"body":"prime interest rate today, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1215.089,"endTime":1219.049,"body":"is the inflation rate going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1219.049,"endTime":1222.379,"body":"be in six months? Right. Now,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1219.049,"endTime":1222.379,"body":"the very same question could be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1222.379,"endTime":1226.369,"body":"asked if the Fed implements an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1222.379,"endTime":1226.369,"body":"increase in the prime interest"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1226.369,"endTime":1230.059,"body":"rate today, what is the stock"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1226.369,"endTime":1230.059,"body":"market going to be tomorrow?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1230.089,"endTime":1233.929,"body":"Yeah, but it goes back to it all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1230.089,"endTime":1233.929,"body":"depends on the question, there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1233.929,"endTime":1236.689,"body":"actually statistical term that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1233.929,"endTime":1236.689,"body":"corresponds to it. And then a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1236.689,"endTime":1240.649,"body":"colloquial one that I think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1236.689,"endTime":1240.649,"body":"about its decay, does an effect"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1240.649,"endTime":1243.529,"body":"decay. And you can think about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1240.649,"endTime":1243.529,"body":"it in different ways, is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1243.529,"endTime":1248.659,"body":"dropping a rock into a quiet"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1243.529,"endTime":1248.659,"body":"pool, and those waves go out."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1248.659,"endTime":1251.659,"body":"But if you wait long enough, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1248.659,"endTime":1251.659,"body":"force of the waves spin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1251.659,"endTime":1255.139,"body":"themselves out, and it returns"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1251.659,"endTime":1255.139,"body":"to a quiet pool. If you think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1255.139,"endTime":1258.439,"body":"those waves are related to other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1255.139,"endTime":1258.439,"body":"waves, but you wait until they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1258.439,"endTime":1261.469,"body":"are all gone. And then on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1258.439,"endTime":1261.469,"body":"other side of the pool, you drop"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1261.469,"endTime":1264.949,"body":"another rock in and say, Oh,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1261.469,"endTime":1264.949,"body":"see, there's no relation between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1264.949,"endTime":1267.229,"body":"my first rock and the second"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1264.949,"endTime":1267.229,"body":"rock. And it's like, dude, there"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1267.229,"endTime":1272.479,"body":"was a fundamental one, you just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1267.229,"endTime":1272.479,"body":"waited so long, that the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1272.479,"endTime":1278.089,"body":"proximal effects decayed away,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1272.479,"endTime":1278.089,"body":"it is not uninteresting to look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1278.089,"endTime":1282.679,"body":"out, on average, do people who"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1278.089,"endTime":1282.679,"body":"experience higher levels of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1282.679,"endTime":1287.419,"body":"negative effect tend to on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1282.679,"endTime":1287.419,"body":"average, drink more alcohol,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1287.869,"endTime":1291.709,"body":"right, that's a between person"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1287.869,"endTime":1291.709,"body":"effect, we don't want to give"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1291.709,"endTime":1295.849,"body":"that up. What we also want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1291.709,"endTime":1295.849,"body":"know is, if you're more anxious"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1295.849,"endTime":1299.539,"body":"than you usually are, do you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1295.849,"endTime":1299.539,"body":"tend to drink more than you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1299.539,"endTime":1304.699,"body":"usually do? The classic example"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1299.539,"endTime":1304.699,"body":"is, this afternoon, you have an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1304.699,"endTime":1308.269,"body":"anxiety reading of eight on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1304.699,"endTime":1308.269,"body":"scale, we're using an I have an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1308.269,"endTime":1313.009,"body":"anxiety reading of 11, my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1308.269,"endTime":1313.009,"body":"anxiety is higher than yours is."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1313.039,"endTime":1318.919,"body":"But if my mean anxiety is 14,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1313.039,"endTime":1318.919,"body":"yeah, I'm actually less anxious"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1318.949,"endTime":1322.669,"body":"than I usually am, you're having"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1318.949,"endTime":1322.669,"body":"a good day. So what the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1322.699,"endTime":1326.089,"body":"intensive longitudinal data"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1322.699,"endTime":1326.089,"body":"allows us to do is to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1326.089,"endTime":1330.019,"body":"simultaneously look at both of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1326.089,"endTime":1330.019,"body":"these issues. So we can look at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1330.019,"endTime":1334.009,"body":"these within person processes."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1330.019,"endTime":1334.009,"body":"But we also at least have the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1334.009,"endTime":1338.599,"body":"ability to look at the overall"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1334.009,"endTime":1338.599,"body":"level of negative affectivity,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1338.599,"endTime":1342.439,"body":"the overall level of alcohol"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1338.599,"endTime":1342.439,"body":"use, and see how those relate at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1342.439,"endTime":1345.979,"body":"all. But in cues of the country"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1342.439,"endTime":1345.979,"body":"song."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1352.79,"endTime":1357.32,"body":"You're going to get this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1352.79,"endTime":1357.32,"body":"rectangular data matrix that is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1357.35,"endTime":1361.61,"body":"a country mile long, and you got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1357.35,"endTime":1361.61,"body":"to do something with it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1361.67,"endTime":1364.49,"body":"So this reminds me of what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1361.67,"endTime":1364.49,"body":"you did a number of years ago"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1364.49,"endTime":1367.58,"body":"with your latent curve models"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1364.49,"endTime":1367.58,"body":"with structured residuals, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1367.58,"endTime":1371.09,"body":"idea of the structured"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1367.58,"endTime":1371.09,"body":"residuals, helping us to try to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1371.09,"endTime":1375.17,"body":"separate out those things that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1371.09,"endTime":1375.17,"body":"are within processes from things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1375.17,"endTime":1379.46,"body":"that are between processes. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1375.17,"endTime":1379.46,"body":"to me, when you die, I will say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1379.46,"endTime":1383.06,"body":"nice things about that work. In"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1379.46,"endTime":1383.06,"body":"fact, I have it on my calendar"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1383.12,"endTime":1386.36,"body":"on your calendar, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1383.12,"endTime":1386.36,"body":"have one I'm gonna die, I would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1386.36,"endTime":1388.64,"body":"be kind of interested in that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1386.36,"endTime":1388.64,"body":"You might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1388.639,"endTime":1390.799,"body":"ask your family to keep"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1388.639,"endTime":1390.799,"body":"August 14 Clear."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1393.23,"endTime":1396.23,"body":"I like that you bring"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1393.23,"endTime":1396.23,"body":"up the SR model, if for no other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1396.23,"endTime":1399.83,"body":"reason than we can't use that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1396.23,"endTime":1399.83,"body":"with intensive longitudinal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1399.83,"endTime":1403.64,"body":"data. So let's think briefly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1399.83,"endTime":1403.64,"body":"about okay, you putting your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1403.64,"endTime":1408.35,"body":"blood sweat and tears and you've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1403.64,"endTime":1408.35,"body":"got this country mile long data"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1408.35,"endTime":1413.06,"body":"file, maybe we have 80 people"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1408.35,"endTime":1413.06,"body":"that range from 30 to 60,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1413.06,"endTime":1417.62,"body":"repeated observations, you got a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1413.06,"endTime":1417.62,"body":"boatload of data now that we got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1417.62,"endTime":1422.6,"body":"to deal with first 90% of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1417.62,"endTime":1422.6,"body":"sciences, data management, that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1422.6,"endTime":1427.64,"body":"is a tough go, right? I have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1422.6,"endTime":1427.64,"body":"greater fears of making a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1427.64,"endTime":1431.24,"body":"mistake in Data Management than"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1427.64,"endTime":1431.24,"body":"I do about fitting any model,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1431.27,"endTime":1434.66,"body":"because that's the greatest area"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1431.27,"endTime":1434.66,"body":"where you can screw things up."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1434.66,"endTime":1437.51,"body":"Because in Data Management, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1434.66,"endTime":1437.51,"body":"model is like the easy part."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1437.54,"endTime":1440.33,"body":"Oh my gosh, yeah. And with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1437.54,"endTime":1440.33,"body":"this kind of data, in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1440.33,"endTime":1442.43,"body":"particular, it's just asking you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1440.33,"endTime":1442.43,"body":"to screw up."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1442.46,"endTime":1445.55,"body":"So think about any"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1442.46,"endTime":1445.55,"body":"latent curve model, where we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1445.55,"endTime":1449.72,"body":"have repeated measures that are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1445.55,"endTime":1449.72,"body":"indicators on the growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1449.72,"endTime":1454.91,"body":"factors. Every repeated measure"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1449.72,"endTime":1454.91,"body":"that you have, you have to be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1454.91,"endTime":1458.12,"body":"able to have a manifest variable"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1454.91,"endTime":1458.12,"body":"for that, that has to have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1458.12,"endTime":1462.05,"body":"mean, and that has to have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1458.12,"endTime":1462.05,"body":"variance to go into the SEM and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1462.05,"endTime":1466.34,"body":"the way that the latent curve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1462.05,"endTime":1466.34,"body":"model works. We have age 10, age"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1466.34,"endTime":1471.44,"body":"11, age 12, age 13, age 14, age"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1466.34,"endTime":1471.44,"body":"15, Bob's your uncle, we got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1471.44,"endTime":1477.2,"body":"everything. Now think about an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1471.44,"endTime":1477.2,"body":"assessment at 1028 at 115. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1477.2,"endTime":1485.93,"body":"at 430. And for Greg, you have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1477.2,"endTime":1485.93,"body":"830 to 1135 106. You can and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1485.93,"endTime":1491.42,"body":"very often have a situation in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1485.93,"endTime":1491.42,"body":"which no two people even share"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1491.72,"endTime":1494.69,"body":"the same assessment period. Not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1491.72,"endTime":1494.69,"body":"that you don't have enough to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1494.69,"endTime":1498.59,"body":"compute a mean and a variance on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1494.69,"endTime":1498.59,"body":"it, but only one person in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1498.59,"endTime":1504.56,"body":"entire data file was assessed at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1498.59,"endTime":1504.56,"body":"10:16am. So the SEM and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1504.56,"endTime":1507.86,"body":"latent curve model tap out,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1504.56,"endTime":1507.86,"body":"you're done in these kinds of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1507.86,"endTime":1508.19,"body":"data,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1508.22,"endTime":1510.56,"body":"you can't even lie to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1508.22,"endTime":1510.56,"body":"yourself until you those were"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1510.56,"endTime":1514.25,"body":"close, close enough to be in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1510.56,"endTime":1514.25,"body":"same interval, as you start to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1514.25,"endTime":1517.07,"body":"think that these smaller and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1514.25,"endTime":1517.07,"body":"smaller intervals are where the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1517.07,"endTime":1518.06,"body":"action actually is,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1518.09,"endTime":1521.36,"body":"you just hit the nail"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1518.09,"endTime":1521.36,"body":"on the head because I could take"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1521.39,"endTime":1524.36,"body":"day assessments and night"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1521.39,"endTime":1524.36,"body":"assessments and day assessments"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1524.36,"endTime":1527.48,"body":"and night assessments. But then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1524.36,"endTime":1527.48,"body":"you start shooting yourself in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1527.48,"endTime":1532.13,"body":"the foot because you have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1527.48,"endTime":1532.13,"body":"reason to collected at 1018 and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1532.13,"endTime":1537.2,"body":"1142, and 155, whatever it might"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1532.13,"endTime":1537.2,"body":"be. And now you're saying, Oh,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1537.62,"endTime":1539.87,"body":"it's just we're going to take"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1537.62,"endTime":1539.87,"body":"the mean of everything that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1539.87,"endTime":1542.36,"body":"happened when the sun was up and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1539.87,"endTime":1542.36,"body":"the mean of everything that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1542.36,"endTime":1546.68,"body":"happened when the sun was down,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1542.36,"endTime":1546.68,"body":"and you're undermining the very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1546.68,"endTime":1550.19,"body":"nature of why you gathered the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1546.68,"endTime":1550.19,"body":"data in that way."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1550.22,"endTime":1552.14,"body":"Yeah, but those issues"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1550.22,"endTime":1552.14,"body":"that we talked about about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1552.14,"endTime":1555.05,"body":"dichotomies ation here. But in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1552.14,"endTime":1555.05,"body":"this case, you're just losing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1555.05,"endTime":1557.75,"body":"information, valuable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1555.05,"endTime":1557.75,"body":"information about time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1557.78,"endTime":1560.78,"body":"well, and the tail wags"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1557.78,"endTime":1560.78,"body":"the dog now, don't it right,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1560.96,"endTime":1563.66,"body":"because what you're doing is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1560.96,"endTime":1563.66,"body":"you're modifying your data to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1563.66,"endTime":1567.68,"body":"fit the modeling framework."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1563.66,"endTime":1567.68,"body":"Yeah. And that is bad, bad bad,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1567.68,"endTime":1570.71,"body":"we ain't doing that what we need"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1567.68,"endTime":1570.71,"body":"to do is build a modeling"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1570.71,"endTime":1574.7,"body":"framework that is consistent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1570.71,"endTime":1574.7,"body":"with the not only structure of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1574.7,"endTime":1577.82,"body":"the data, but with the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1574.7,"endTime":1577.82,"body":"motivating theoretical questions"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1577.82,"endTime":1582.23,"body":"at hand. So before we start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1577.82,"endTime":1582.23,"body":"talking technical aspects, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1582.23,"endTime":1586.01,"body":"is it about intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1582.23,"endTime":1586.01,"body":"longitudinal data that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1586.01,"endTime":1590.06,"body":"introduces issues that are not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1586.01,"endTime":1590.06,"body":"common in panel data, I think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1590.06,"endTime":1594.29,"body":"it's helpful to think about that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1590.06,"endTime":1594.29,"body":"there are unique features that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1594.29,"endTime":1600.53,"body":"we have to deal with, if you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1594.29,"endTime":1600.53,"body":"assessing anxiety at 10:22am."},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1600.71,"endTime":1608.21,"body":"43am. Is the"},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1600.71,"endTime":1608.21,"body":"anxiety 1122 in some way more"},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1608.21,"endTime":1615.65,"body":"related to the anxiety at 1143."},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1608.21,"endTime":1615.65,"body":"Then at 1022, and 315, right?"},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1615.68,"endTime":1619.4,"body":"When you start getting these"},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1615.68,"endTime":1619.4,"body":"highly densely distributed"},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1619.4,"endTime":1623.09,"body":"observations in time, it"},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1619.4,"endTime":1623.09,"body":"introduces a thing called serial"},{"speaker":"And again, at 11","startTime":1623.09,"endTime":1623.81,"body":"correlation."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1623.839,"endTime":1627.499,"body":"So could you clarify for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1623.839,"endTime":1627.499,"body":"us why it's not a thing in panel"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1627.499,"endTime":1629.869,"body":"data, and it is now all of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1627.499,"endTime":1629.869,"body":"sudden, the thing when we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1629.869,"endTime":1630.769,"body":"the intensive data"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1630.8,"endTime":1634.88,"body":"ripples in a pond, it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1630.8,"endTime":1634.88,"body":"decay, not poppers corpse decay."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1636.14,"endTime":1640.94,"body":"So let's say that you're looking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1636.14,"endTime":1640.94,"body":"at anxiety and substance use at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1640.94,"endTime":1648.02,"body":"age 15. And age 16. Anxiety at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1640.94,"endTime":1648.02,"body":"age 15. And anxiety at age 16,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1648.23,"endTime":1650.87,"body":"are going to have some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1648.23,"endTime":1650.87,"body":"correlation. Obviously, we can't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1650.87,"endTime":1654.05,"body":"fit a growth model if those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1650.87,"endTime":1654.05,"body":"don't covary. But we are going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1654.05,"endTime":1658.73,"body":"to model those covariances at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1654.05,"endTime":1658.73,"body":"the level of the latent growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1658.73,"endTime":1663.53,"body":"process. So if we have age 10 to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1658.73,"endTime":1663.53,"body":"15, and we're fitting a linear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1663.53,"endTime":1666.53,"body":"growth model, we have a random"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1663.53,"endTime":1666.53,"body":"intercept, we have a random"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1666.53,"endTime":1669.95,"body":"slope, we have a covariance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1666.53,"endTime":1669.95,"body":"between intercept and slope. All"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1669.95,"endTime":1673.4,"body":"right, let's teleport back to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1669.95,"endTime":1673.4,"body":"the mind's eye of path tracing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1673.4,"endTime":1675.83,"body":"rules. Remember, we were playing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1673.4,"endTime":1675.83,"body":"with guinea pigs at some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1675.829,"endTime":1678.74,"body":"That's right. So we'll"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1675.829,"endTime":1678.74,"body":"write who had the Fetish"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1678.77,"endTime":1682.22,"body":"picture in your mind's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1678.77,"endTime":1682.22,"body":"eye a path diagram for a latent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1682.22,"endTime":1685.04,"body":"curve model. So you have five"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1682.22,"endTime":1685.04,"body":"indicators that are repeated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1685.04,"endTime":1688.61,"body":"measures, you have two latent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1685.04,"endTime":1688.61,"body":"factors. How do you get from age"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1688.61,"endTime":1692.66,"body":"15, to age 16. So you start at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1688.61,"endTime":1692.66,"body":"age 15, you go down to your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1692.66,"endTime":1696.65,"body":"intercept factor up to age 16."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1692.66,"endTime":1696.65,"body":"That's part of it. And then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1696.65,"endTime":1699.92,"body":"depending on how you code time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1696.65,"endTime":1699.92,"body":"you go down to your intercept,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1699.92,"endTime":1705.05,"body":"you go over the covariance, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1699.92,"endTime":1705.05,"body":"go up to age 16. The model is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1705.05,"endTime":1709.85,"body":"building in the covariance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1705.05,"endTime":1709.85,"body":"between age 15 and 16. The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1709.85,"endTime":1716.6,"body":"residual of age 15. And 16"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1709.85,"endTime":1716.6,"body":"Rarely is correlated in the LCM."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1716.66,"endTime":1721.01,"body":"That part that's leftover of age"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1716.66,"endTime":1721.01,"body":"15, correlating with that part"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1721.01,"endTime":1725.18,"body":"that's leftover at age 16. Not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1721.01,"endTime":1725.18,"body":"because we can't do it, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1725.18,"endTime":1729.5,"body":"because often, that residual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1725.18,"endTime":1729.5,"body":"covariance has decayed away over"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1729.5,"endTime":1733.1,"body":"a year, any little bit of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1729.5,"endTime":1733.1,"body":"relation that's not related to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1733.1,"endTime":1736.97,"body":"the underlying growth process,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1733.1,"endTime":1736.97,"body":"those ripples in the ponds have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1736.97,"endTime":1739.82,"body":"just died away, and it's gone"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1736.97,"endTime":1739.82,"body":"flat again. But if you have"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1739.82,"endTime":1746.24,"body":"43am, we can"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1739.82,"endTime":1746.24,"body":"still have a random intercept on"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1746.24,"endTime":1749.18,"body":"those. But there's going to be a"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1746.24,"endTime":1749.18,"body":"little bit of serial correlation"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1749.18,"endTime":1752.99,"body":"leftover. Maybe you had a shot a"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1749.18,"endTime":1752.99,"body":"coffee in the morning, maybe"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1752.99,"endTime":1756.23,"body":"you've gotten an argument with"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1752.99,"endTime":1756.23,"body":"your boss, and your anxiety went"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1756.23,"endTime":1761.15,"body":"up. And it's going to be higher"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1756.23,"endTime":1761.15,"body":"at several times, maybe before"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1761.15,"endTime":1764.21,"body":"it returns back down to"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1761.15,"endTime":1764.21,"body":"baseline, these intensive"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1764.21,"endTime":1767.81,"body":"longitudinal designs introduce"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1764.21,"endTime":1767.81,"body":"the serial correlations that we"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1767.81,"endTime":1771.53,"body":"have to build into the model."},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1767.81,"endTime":1771.53,"body":"Because if we don't you know"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1771.53,"endTime":1774.41,"body":"what starts tomorrow, North"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1771.53,"endTime":1774.41,"body":"Carolina State Fair, you know,"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1774.41,"endTime":1777.05,"body":"there are two reasons to go to"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1774.41,"endTime":1777.05,"body":"the North Carolina State Fair"},{"speaker":"10:22am, and 11","startTime":1777.08,"endTime":1778.76,"body":"turkey legs and whack"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1778.43,"endTime":1780.44,"body":"That's all there is."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1780.47,"endTime":1784.07,"body":"If you have the serial"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1780.47,"endTime":1784.07,"body":"correlations in your intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1784.07,"endTime":1789.11,"body":"design that want to be there and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1784.07,"endTime":1789.11,"body":"you don't let them those are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1789.11,"endTime":1792.65,"body":"going to whack a mole down into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1789.11,"endTime":1792.65,"body":"other parts of the model and can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1792.65,"endTime":1796.61,"body":"seriously bias other aspects of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1792.65,"endTime":1796.61,"body":"your model estimation. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1796.609,"endTime":1800.329,"body":"if I make the tie back to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1796.609,"endTime":1800.329,"body":"the Leighton curve, Otto was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1800.329,"endTime":1804.139,"body":"structured residuals in a panel"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1800.329,"endTime":1804.139,"body":"design. Do you call it leikam?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1804.139,"endTime":1804.619,"body":"Sir?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1805.94,"endTime":1809.39,"body":"Let's leave that alone."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1805.94,"endTime":1809.39,"body":"Okay. Recall Pim is a special"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1809.39,"endTime":1817.67,"body":"case of Lincom. Sir. Where were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1809.39,"endTime":1817.67,"body":"we doesn't matter, okay."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1818.99,"endTime":1823.01,"body":"In that model, you could"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1818.99,"endTime":1823.01,"body":"connect to the residuals of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1823.01,"endTime":1826.46,"body":"variable to the residuals of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1823.01,"endTime":1826.46,"body":"that variable at a new time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1826.46,"endTime":1830.69,"body":"point. But isn't it the case"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1826.46,"endTime":1830.69,"body":"that in the LCMS, or you often"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1830.69,"endTime":1834.5,"body":"don't have the residual to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1830.69,"endTime":1834.5,"body":"residual time point connections"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1834.59,"endTime":1837.8,"body":"within a variable, you more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1834.59,"endTime":1837.8,"body":"often have them across variables"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1837.8,"endTime":1839.69,"body":"whose relation you're trying to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1837.8,"endTime":1839.69,"body":"study? Yeah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1839.72,"endTime":1843.17,"body":"And it's a testable"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1839.72,"endTime":1843.17,"body":"hypothesis. But all of those,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1843.23,"endTime":1847.01,"body":"all of those are still based on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1843.23,"endTime":1847.01,"body":"this panel design. Yeah, if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1847.01,"endTime":1851.03,"body":"you're looking at a school based"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1847.01,"endTime":1851.03,"body":"end of grade testing, you want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1851.03,"endTime":1855.53,"body":"to follow it across elementary"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1851.03,"endTime":1855.53,"body":"school, that kind of framework"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1855.53,"endTime":1859.28,"body":"may be really well suited for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1855.53,"endTime":1859.28,"body":"that. But if you're talking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1859.28,"endTime":1864.8,"body":"about daily anxiety, and nightly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1859.28,"endTime":1864.8,"body":"alcohol use, assessed morning"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1864.8,"endTime":1868.97,"body":"and night over a 14 day period,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1864.8,"endTime":1868.97,"body":"the LCM taps out."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1869.0,"endTime":1872.21,"body":"So one complication then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1869.0,"endTime":1872.21,"body":"is the serial correlation that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1872.21,"endTime":1874.82,"body":"we have. Are there any others"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1872.21,"endTime":1874.82,"body":"that you want to mention while"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1874.82,"endTime":1875.81,"body":"we're here? If you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1875.81,"endTime":1879.08,"body":"thinking about how does"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1875.81,"endTime":1879.08,"body":"something unfold throughout the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1879.08,"endTime":1882.62,"body":"day or throughout the week,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1879.08,"endTime":1882.62,"body":"often, you have to also start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1882.62,"endTime":1888.89,"body":"thinking about either cycles, or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1882.62,"endTime":1888.89,"body":"transition points. Dan, and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1888.89,"endTime":1892.88,"body":"have some data we work with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1888.89,"endTime":1892.88,"body":"where there's 61, individuals"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1892.88,"endTime":1896.69,"body":"measured with heart rate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1892.88,"endTime":1896.69,"body":"throughout the day, up to 60"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1896.69,"endTime":1900.95,"body":"times. You can cycle throughout"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1896.69,"endTime":1900.95,"body":"the day, but you also go to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1900.95,"endTime":1904.49,"body":"sleep where there's a transition"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1900.95,"endTime":1904.49,"body":"point. If you're studying"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1904.49,"endTime":1908.36,"body":"alcohol use in a university"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1904.49,"endTime":1908.36,"body":"setting, you may need to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1908.36,"endTime":1913.37,"body":"consider weekdays and weekends"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1908.36,"endTime":1913.37,"body":"as cyclical. And by the way, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1913.37,"endTime":1916.52,"body":"this is official weekend on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1913.37,"endTime":1916.52,"body":"college campuses starts on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1916.52,"endTime":1920.84,"body":"Thursday night. We did some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1916.52,"endTime":1920.84,"body":"studies in our labs, not only do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1920.84,"endTime":1924.86,"body":"we have to put in a weekend"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1920.84,"endTime":1924.86,"body":"effect, we had to look up online"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1924.89,"endTime":1931.85,"body":"and put in impacts of home"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1924.89,"endTime":1931.85,"body":"basketball games. But think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1931.85,"endTime":1936.17,"body":"about it, you have to do that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1931.85,"endTime":1936.17,"body":"stuff. If you are on the campus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1936.17,"endTime":1939.29,"body":"of the University of North"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1936.17,"endTime":1939.29,"body":"Carolina and you are studying"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1939.44,"endTime":1943.67,"body":"weekday weekend drinking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1939.44,"endTime":1943.67,"body":"patterns. You darn well better"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1943.67,"endTime":1945.41,"body":"put in home basketball games,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1945.71,"endTime":1950.15,"body":"and the fairy tale Ryan"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1945.71,"endTime":1950.15,"body":"put the Tar Heels to 10 News"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1950.21,"endTime":1955.34,"body":"Head Coach K's legendary career"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1950.21,"endTime":1955.34,"body":"has come to a close"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1955.55,"endTime":1958.97,"body":"because there's a spike"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1955.55,"endTime":1958.97,"body":"in drinking on Franklin Street."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1959.54,"endTime":1962.57,"body":"Dude, I'm doing my thing here is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1959.54,"endTime":1962.57,"body":"your alarm going off?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1962.6,"endTime":1965.6,"body":"It is hang on just a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1962.6,"endTime":1965.6,"body":"second. Our whole episode is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1965.6,"endTime":1969.5,"body":"about the importance of getting"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1965.6,"endTime":1969.5,"body":"timing right. I have a Southwest"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1969.5,"endTime":1973.01,"body":"Airlines flight 24 hours from"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1969.5,"endTime":1973.01,"body":"now and I have to make sure that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1973.01,"endTime":1975.62,"body":"I'm checked in. Otherwise I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1973.01,"endTime":1975.62,"body":"going to get a crappy middle"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1975.62,"endTime":1976.04,"body":"seat."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1976.07,"endTime":1979.1,"body":"You don't pay the 20"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1976.07,"endTime":1979.1,"body":"bucks to buy yourself to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1979.1,"endTime":1983.21,"body":"front of the line. How freakin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1979.1,"endTime":1983.21,"body":"cheap Are you? Okay, I want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1983.21,"endTime":1989.66,"body":"people to realize this is not a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1983.21,"endTime":1989.66,"body":"gag. When I was mid stream of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1989.66,"endTime":1994.22,"body":"doing my thing he is right now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1989.66,"endTime":1994.22,"body":"trying to get at best you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1994.22,"endTime":1997.55,"body":"gonna get a B he thinks so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1994.22,"endTime":1997.55,"body":"boring, right? Oh, I guarantee"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1997.55,"endTime":2000.16,"body":"you because you've been talking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1997.55,"endTime":2000.16,"body":"to me for the last 30 seconds"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2000.16,"endTime":2001.87,"body":"all of A is gone already."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2001.9,"endTime":2006.13,"body":"Okay, here we go. I gotta"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2001.9,"endTime":2006.13,"body":"be 14. So boom, timing is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2006.13,"endTime":2009.73,"body":"everything. Okay? I honestly"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2006.13,"endTime":2009.73,"body":"just didn't expect that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2009.73,"endTime":2010.75,"body":"would still be talking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2010.78,"endTime":2015.82,"body":"really don't mind me at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2010.78,"endTime":2015.82,"body":"all. Okay, I'm back. So now the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2015.82,"endTime":2018.7,"body":"latent curve model is tapped"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2015.82,"endTime":2018.7,"body":"out. We can't do it. Right. If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2018.7,"endTime":2023.02,"body":"you have 20 3040 measures, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2018.7,"endTime":2023.02,"body":"SEM has said thanks so much. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2023.02,"endTime":2025.96,"body":"had a great time tonight. I'll"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2023.02,"endTime":2025.96,"body":"be here all week and as walked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2025.96,"endTime":2029.47,"body":"off the stage, you know who's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2025.96,"endTime":2029.47,"body":"going to come on and I have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2029.47,"endTime":2035.98,"body":"admit, they get marginalized a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2029.47,"endTime":2035.98,"body":"little bit from us sem KoolAid"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2035.98,"endTime":2039.34,"body":"drinkers, right. We can do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2035.98,"endTime":2039.34,"body":"multiple indicator latent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2039.34,"endTime":2042.82,"body":"factors. We can do reciprocal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2039.34,"endTime":2042.82,"body":"effects. We can do formal tests"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2042.82,"endTime":2047.05,"body":"and mediation ever look at us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2042.82,"endTime":2047.05,"body":"all buttered up in front of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2047.05,"endTime":2051.07,"body":"mirror and flexing my pecs look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2047.05,"endTime":2051.07,"body":"at my pecs. Look at them. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2051.07,"endTime":2054.34,"body":"can't look away from my pecs."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2051.07,"endTime":2054.34,"body":"Oh, you have 10 repeated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2054.34,"endTime":2058.18,"body":"measures. Pardon me. I have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2054.34,"endTime":2058.18,"body":"go see a man about a horse."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2059.92,"endTime":2065.5,"body":"Seriously, is the multi level"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2059.92,"endTime":2065.5,"body":"model gets dished on a lot?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2065.53,"endTime":2070.12,"body":"Yeah. And you know what the SEM"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2065.53,"endTime":2070.12,"body":"was the warm up act for the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2070.12,"endTime":2073.42,"body":"multilevel model who's going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2070.12,"endTime":2073.42,"body":"come out with this little bottle"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2073.42,"endTime":2075.76,"body":"of water and it's stool."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2077.5,"endTime":2079.12,"body":"Boy, what a crowd crowd."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2080.68,"endTime":2082.84,"body":"People are throwing beer"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2080.68,"endTime":2082.84,"body":"bottles at sem to get off the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2082.84,"endTime":2084.19,"body":"stage. Is that what you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2082.84,"endTime":2084.19,"body":"saying?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2084.22,"endTime":2087.73,"body":"Just like the Blues"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2084.22,"endTime":2087.73,"body":"Brothers were they performed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2087.73,"endTime":2092.95,"body":"behind the chicken wire, rollin,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2087.73,"endTime":2092.95,"body":"rollin, rollin, the screens are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2092.95,"endTime":2093.55,"body":"swollen"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2098.98,"endTime":2103.45,"body":"because you When patrons liked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2098.98,"endTime":2103.45,"body":"it, they threw beer bottles."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2103.72,"endTime":2107.98,"body":"When they didn't like it, they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2103.72,"endTime":2107.98,"body":"threw beer bottles. MLM is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2107.98,"endTime":2110.83,"body":"sitting back there smoking a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2107.98,"endTime":2110.83,"body":"cigarette in the back of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2110.83,"endTime":2114.16,"body":"bar. And it's all by itself. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2110.83,"endTime":2114.16,"body":"it's like, I knew you'd come"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2114.16,"endTime":2119.62,"body":"back. Because what MLM does is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2114.16,"endTime":2119.62,"body":"it brings in the numerical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2119.62,"endTime":2124.3,"body":"measure of time as a predictor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2119.62,"endTime":2124.3,"body":"variable. And you know, what,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2124.33,"endTime":2129.4,"body":"1018 1145 It don't make no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2124.33,"endTime":2129.4,"body":"nevermind,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2129.43,"endTime":2132.04,"body":"you and I had our episode"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2129.43,"endTime":2132.04,"body":"where we talked about the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2132.04,"endTime":2136.72,"body":"relative benefits and detriments"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2132.04,"endTime":2136.72,"body":"of MLM approach versus an SEM"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2136.72,"endTime":2139.93,"body":"approach to growth. And I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2136.72,"endTime":2139.93,"body":"we did a pretty even handed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2139.96,"endTime":2145.21,"body":"treatment of that, with the help"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2139.96,"endTime":2145.21,"body":"of Dr. Michelle. We landed on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2145.27,"endTime":2149.2,"body":"the latent growth curve models"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2145.27,"endTime":2149.2,"body":"as having so much versatility"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2149.2,"endTime":2151.78,"body":"and things that the multi level"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2149.2,"endTime":2151.78,"body":"model couldn't do. But one of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2151.78,"endTime":2154.81,"body":"the big Achilles heels of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2151.78,"endTime":2154.81,"body":"structural equation modeling"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2154.81,"endTime":2158.62,"body":"approach is the rigidity when it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2154.81,"endTime":2158.62,"body":"comes to dealing with time. So I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2158.62,"endTime":2162.55,"body":"gotta say that MLM has got some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2158.62,"endTime":2162.55,"body":"things going on here it is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2162.58,"endTime":2164.89,"body":"looking pretty fine back there"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2162.58,"endTime":2164.89,"body":"in the corner of the bar,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2165.01,"endTime":2169.75,"body":"very briefly, MLM"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2165.01,"endTime":2169.75,"body":"approaches any longitudinal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2169.75,"endTime":2174.67,"body":"design as an issue of dependent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2169.75,"endTime":2174.67,"body":"data, it is repeated measures"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2174.67,"endTime":2178.81,"body":"nested within individuals. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2174.67,"endTime":2178.81,"body":"we also know from prior"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2178.81,"endTime":2181.6,"body":"episodes, and a whole lot of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2178.81,"endTime":2181.6,"body":"great work that is out in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2181.6,"endTime":2185.44,"body":"world, that many, many growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2181.6,"endTime":2185.44,"body":"modeling applications are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2185.44,"endTime":2190.36,"body":"isomorphic between MLM and SEM"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2185.44,"endTime":2190.36,"body":"to the 16th decimal, but it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2190.36,"endTime":2193.42,"body":"starts to separate when you get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2190.36,"endTime":2193.42,"body":"into these intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2193.42,"endTime":2197.56,"body":"longitudinal designs, what the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2193.42,"endTime":2197.56,"body":"MLM allows for the intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2197.56,"endTime":2200.68,"body":"longitudinal data are a couple"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2197.56,"endTime":2200.68,"body":"of big things right off the bat,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2200.71,"endTime":2206.38,"body":"one, you can, without hyperbole,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2200.71,"endTime":2206.38,"body":"have an observation at a time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2206.38,"endTime":2210.43,"body":"point that is not shared by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2206.38,"endTime":2210.43,"body":"anyone else in the sample, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2210.43,"endTime":2214.93,"body":"can have one person out of 1000"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2210.43,"endTime":2214.93,"body":"observations that were assessed"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2214.93,"endTime":2220.72,"body":"11am. And MLM don't care."},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2214.93,"endTime":2220.72,"body":"Yeah, this is a huge advantage."},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2220.9,"endTime":2225.64,"body":"And what it's doing is imagine"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2220.9,"endTime":2225.64,"body":"that you have a predictor, some"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2225.64,"endTime":2229.0,"body":"measure, that is height, we"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2225.64,"endTime":2229.0,"body":"never think about, oh my gosh,"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2229.0,"endTime":2232.03,"body":"we need to have two people who"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2229.0,"endTime":2232.03,"body":"share the same height to build a"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2232.03,"endTime":2235.3,"body":"very, now it's just, it's on a"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2232.03,"endTime":2235.3,"body":"number line. And we have this"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2235.3,"endTime":2239.71,"body":"continuous number line of time."},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2235.3,"endTime":2239.71,"body":"And person one was assessed"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2239.71,"endTime":2242.32,"body":"here, here, here, and here,"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2239.71,"endTime":2242.32,"body":"person two here, here, here. And"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2242.32,"endTime":2246.19,"body":"here. Don't make no nevermind."},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2242.32,"endTime":2246.19,"body":"The second advantage is there"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2246.19,"endTime":2250.87,"body":"are a whole host of level one"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2246.19,"endTime":2250.87,"body":"error structures that we can"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2250.87,"endTime":2253.93,"body":"build in those serial"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2250.87,"endTime":2253.93,"body":"correlations. And they do"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2253.93,"endTime":2258.73,"body":"different things, we can do an"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2253.93,"endTime":2258.73,"body":"auto regressive structure, a"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2258.73,"endTime":2264.1,"body":"moving average, we can do banded"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2258.73,"endTime":2264.1,"body":"toeplitz. Ooh, one of my"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2264.1,"endTime":2268.78,"body":"favorite is spatial power, I use"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2264.1,"endTime":2268.78,"body":"proc mixed in SAS for my own"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2268.78,"endTime":2273.13,"body":"work. And they have something"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2268.78,"endTime":2273.13,"body":"like 20 different structures of"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2273.13,"endTime":2276.97,"body":"level one residuals. And what"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2273.13,"endTime":2276.97,"body":"that is, is what we alluded to a"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2276.97,"endTime":2280.93,"body":"few minutes ago, in the latent"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2276.97,"endTime":2280.93,"body":"curve model, we assume that part"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2280.93,"endTime":2286.0,"body":"of age 15 is uncorrelated with"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2280.93,"endTime":2286.0,"body":"that part of age 16, because any"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2286.0,"endTime":2289.57,"body":"relation that was there has"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2286.0,"endTime":2289.57,"body":"decayed away over that 12 month"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2289.57,"endTime":2293.02,"body":"window. Well, here we're saying,"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2289.57,"endTime":2293.02,"body":"holy cow, I got a boatload of"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2293.02,"endTime":2297.4,"body":"these structures that I can"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2293.02,"endTime":2297.4,"body":"build in one to give myself some"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2297.4,"endTime":2302.53,"body":"theoretical insight into how my"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2297.4,"endTime":2302.53,"body":"data unfolds over time, but to"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2302.56,"endTime":2305.29,"body":"it protects against whack a"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2302.56,"endTime":2305.29,"body":"mole, if there is this auto"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2305.29,"endTime":2309.73,"body":"regressive lag one structure at"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2305.29,"endTime":2309.73,"body":"my level one residual, and it"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2309.73,"endTime":2314.29,"body":"wants to be there dollars to"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2309.73,"endTime":2314.29,"body":"donuts, that we got that AR one"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2314.29,"endTime":2319.15,"body":"in, so that I can interpret my"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2314.29,"endTime":2319.15,"body":"other covariance estimates with"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2319.15,"endTime":2322.63,"body":"greater confidence that they're"},{"speaker":"at 9","startTime":2319.15,"endTime":2322.63,"body":"not bias because a whack a mole."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2322.75,"endTime":2324.52,"body":"Okay, I got a question for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2322.75,"endTime":2324.52,"body":"you. So you've got these error"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2324.52,"endTime":2327.82,"body":"structures that are in the can,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2324.52,"endTime":2327.82,"body":"right, you can check this box"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2327.82,"endTime":2331.33,"body":"and we've got banded toeplitz."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2327.82,"endTime":2331.33,"body":"If you don't really have any"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2331.33,"endTime":2334.48,"body":"theoretical questions around the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2331.33,"endTime":2334.48,"body":"error structure, but you just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2334.48,"endTime":2337.33,"body":"sort of view the infrastructure"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2334.48,"endTime":2337.33,"body":"as a place where you want an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2337.33,"endTime":2341.02,"body":"insurance policy to help prevent"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2337.33,"endTime":2341.02,"body":"whack a mole in the areas that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2341.02,"endTime":2344.05,"body":"you actually care about, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2341.02,"endTime":2344.05,"body":"kind of error structure do you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2344.05,"endTime":2347.05,"body":"gravitate toward just to make"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2344.05,"endTime":2347.05,"body":"you sleep better at night?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2347.08,"endTime":2351.1,"body":"I hang them all and let"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2347.08,"endTime":2351.1,"body":"God sort them out. You're spot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2351.1,"endTime":2354.49,"body":"on? Not often, is there a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2351.1,"endTime":2354.49,"body":"theoretically motivated question"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2354.49,"endTime":2358.93,"body":"that would distinguish an AR one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2354.49,"endTime":2358.93,"body":"from abandoned templates? You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2358.93,"endTime":2363.49,"body":"estimate 10 different structures"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2358.93,"endTime":2363.49,"body":"and pick the one with the lowest"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2363.49,"endTime":2367.57,"body":"Bayesian information criteria?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2363.49,"endTime":2367.57,"body":"You let the data speak to you."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2367.57,"endTime":2370.6,"body":"It's not a theoretical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2367.57,"endTime":2370.6,"body":"inference. Don't yell at me for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2370.6,"endTime":2374.38,"body":"being the reason for the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2370.6,"endTime":2374.38,"body":"replication crisis. What we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2374.38,"endTime":2379.54,"body":"trying to do is to optimally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2374.38,"endTime":2379.54,"body":"represent this complex level one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2379.54,"endTime":2382.78,"body":"error structure so that then we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2379.54,"endTime":2382.78,"body":"can go on about our business."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2382.81,"endTime":2382.99,"body":"Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2382.99,"endTime":2385.33,"body":"and our businesses"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2382.99,"endTime":2385.33,"body":"elsewhere and our businesses"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2385.33,"endTime":2387.43,"body":"elsewhere. All right. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2385.33,"endTime":2387.43,"body":"assuming that you've wrestled"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2387.43,"endTime":2390.04,"body":"with your error structure,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2387.43,"endTime":2390.04,"body":"daemons, you got something at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2390.04,"endTime":2392.65,"body":"least in place that's going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2390.04,"endTime":2392.65,"body":"keep you out of trouble. As far"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2392.65,"endTime":2395.47,"body":"as Whack a Mole goes. Tell us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2392.65,"endTime":2395.47,"body":"about some of the kinds of cool"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2395.47,"endTime":2398.44,"body":"things that you can do where the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2395.47,"endTime":2398.44,"body":"action is in your model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2398.47,"endTime":2400.99,"body":"where you know what's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2398.47,"endTime":2400.99,"body":"neat, what you would often do in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2400.99,"endTime":2404.32,"body":"models like these even with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2400.99,"endTime":2404.32,"body":"panel data, or their time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2404.32,"endTime":2408.01,"body":"trends, does anxiety increase"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2404.32,"endTime":2408.01,"body":"throughout the day and then go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2408.01,"endTime":2410.77,"body":"down? And then does it increase"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2408.01,"endTime":2410.77,"body":"throughout the day and go down?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2410.77,"endTime":2414.34,"body":"Does that differ between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2410.77,"endTime":2414.34,"body":"individuals? Do you have time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2414.34,"endTime":2418.78,"body":"varying predictors? This is a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2414.34,"endTime":2418.78,"body":"big thing in ILD. Does my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2418.78,"endTime":2423.91,"body":"anxiety during the day predict"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2418.78,"endTime":2423.91,"body":"my alcohol use that night? And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2423.91,"endTime":2427.33,"body":"so if I'm more anxious than I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2423.91,"endTime":2427.33,"body":"usually am, do I drink more than"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2427.33,"endTime":2431.44,"body":"I usually do? Those are those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2427.33,"endTime":2431.44,"body":"kind of dynamic process"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2431.44,"endTime":2435.79,"body":"questions that we want to ask."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2431.44,"endTime":2435.79,"body":"And so a lot of it is doing what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2435.79,"endTime":2438.64,"body":"we wanted to do in the first"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2435.79,"endTime":2438.64,"body":"place. But being able to do it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2438.64,"endTime":2442.33,"body":"properly, do we have a predictor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2438.64,"endTime":2442.33,"body":"of an outcome that we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2442.33,"endTime":2446.2,"body":"earlier in the day predicting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2442.33,"endTime":2446.2,"body":"later in the day, or at an hour"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2446.2,"endTime":2449.68,"body":"increment or whatever, right?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2446.2,"endTime":2449.68,"body":"There are no rules on how to use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2449.68,"endTime":2452.98,"body":"these, you might have an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2449.68,"endTime":2452.98,"body":"intensive longitudinal design"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2452.98,"endTime":2457.96,"body":"where you take weekly measures"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2452.98,"endTime":2457.96,"body":"for 50 weeks, it doesn't matter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2457.96,"endTime":2461.83,"body":"that it's minutes or hours, it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2457.96,"endTime":2461.83,"body":"the density of the observations,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2461.86,"endTime":2466.3,"body":"I would say it's in a way a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2461.86,"endTime":2466.3,"body":"little anticlimactic. It allows"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2466.3,"endTime":2470.02,"body":"us to look at lead lag relations"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2466.3,"endTime":2470.02,"body":"in the way that we really want."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2470.2,"endTime":2473.32,"body":"But doing it in a way that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2470.2,"endTime":2473.32,"body":"proper in terms of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2473.32,"endTime":2475.45,"body":"characteristics of our observed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2473.32,"endTime":2475.45,"body":"data. And we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2475.45,"endTime":2479.02,"body":"get cool things like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2475.45,"endTime":2479.02,"body":"splines, right, we can have nots"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2479.05,"endTime":2481.63,"body":"where there are interesting"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2479.05,"endTime":2481.63,"body":"developmental junctures that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2481.63,"endTime":2484.45,"body":"things might occur, we have all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2481.63,"endTime":2484.45,"body":"kinds of flexibilities that are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2484.45,"endTime":2488.23,"body":"very, very interesting to us."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2484.45,"endTime":2488.23,"body":"And in many cases, we can get at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2488.23,"endTime":2490.3,"body":"the individual differences in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2488.23,"endTime":2490.3,"body":"those kinds of things where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2490.3,"endTime":2492.22,"body":"they're just fascinating"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2490.3,"endTime":2492.22,"body":"questions here."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2492.25,"endTime":2495.58,"body":"And we do that with the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2492.25,"endTime":2495.58,"body":"heart rate data, we have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2495.58,"endTime":2500.11,"body":"linear spline where we fit an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2495.58,"endTime":2500.11,"body":"individual trajectory to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2500.11,"endTime":2504.52,"body":"heart rate data throughout the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2500.11,"endTime":2504.52,"body":"day. And then we have a knot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2504.76,"endTime":2510.46,"body":"when the person goes to sleep,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2504.76,"endTime":2510.46,"body":"and then fit a second spline of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2510.46,"endTime":2514.51,"body":"their heart rate when they're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2510.46,"endTime":2514.51,"body":"asleep. And the super cool thing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2514.51,"endTime":2518.65,"body":"is when you go to sleep can vary"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2514.51,"endTime":2518.65,"body":"over individual right? And so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2518.65,"endTime":2522.58,"body":"you can literally start doing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2518.65,"endTime":2522.58,"body":"things like cosines, we've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2522.58,"endTime":2526.15,"body":"established all of us owe our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2522.58,"endTime":2526.15,"body":"high school math teachers"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2526.18,"endTime":2526.87,"body":"apology,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2526.87,"endTime":2528.22,"body":"huge apology, right?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2528.64,"endTime":2531.79,"body":"Am I ever gonna have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2528.64,"endTime":2531.79,"body":"figure the area under a curve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2531.79,"endTime":2536.08,"body":"between two fixed points is so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2531.79,"endTime":2536.08,"body":"stupid? Oh, yeah, that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2536.08,"endTime":2539.5,"body":"hypothesis testing. And another"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2536.08,"endTime":2539.5,"body":"one is, when am I ever going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2539.5,"endTime":2544.12,"body":"use a cosine function? Well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2539.5,"endTime":2544.12,"body":"instead of fixed transition"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2544.12,"endTime":2548.56,"body":"points, the smooth cycles that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2544.12,"endTime":2548.56,"body":"go up and down and up and down,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2548.56,"endTime":2551.44,"body":"you can build those. And it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2548.56,"endTime":2551.44,"body":"fascinating. So one of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2551.44,"endTime":2551.68,"body":"things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2551.68,"endTime":2553.75,"body":"that you and I talked"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2551.68,"endTime":2553.75,"body":"about, in a previous episode,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2553.75,"endTime":2556.21,"body":"our Lego episode, right, where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2553.75,"endTime":2556.21,"body":"we talked about re"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2556.21,"endTime":2559.96,"body":"parameterization, one of the key"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2556.21,"endTime":2559.96,"body":"messages was trying to get as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2559.96,"endTime":2563.38,"body":"much fidelity between the model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2559.96,"endTime":2563.38,"body":"and your research question and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2563.38,"endTime":2565.33,"body":"the things that you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2563.38,"endTime":2565.33,"body":"describing. It's not just like,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2565.87,"endTime":2569.5,"body":"we could put in a cosine. That's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2565.87,"endTime":2569.5,"body":"awesome. It's that you think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2569.5,"endTime":2572.35,"body":"that there's a particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2569.5,"endTime":2572.35,"body":"process that subscribes to that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2572.35,"endTime":2575.53,"body":"cycle, or you think that there's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2572.35,"endTime":2575.53,"body":"a particular process that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2575.53,"endTime":2579.34,"body":"reasonably well characterized by"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2575.53,"endTime":2579.34,"body":"two lines that meet at a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2579.34,"endTime":2583.15,"body":"particular point, I am just as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2579.34,"endTime":2583.15,"body":"you know, a huge fan of using"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2583.15,"endTime":2586.42,"body":"something that has the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2583.15,"endTime":2586.42,"body":"flexibility to try to build what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2586.42,"endTime":2589.12,"body":"you need for what it is you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2586.42,"endTime":2589.12,"body":"studying. And this does, I have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2589.12,"endTime":2590.56,"body":"to say, have an awful lot of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2589.12,"endTime":2590.56,"body":"that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2590.59,"endTime":2592.87,"body":"it's the laser cannon"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2590.59,"endTime":2592.87,"body":"on the flower shop,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2592.48,"endTime":2594.64,"body":"Annie's flower shop,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2595.33,"endTime":2598.96,"body":"there are a couple of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2595.33,"endTime":2598.96,"body":"pretty significant limitations."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2598.99,"endTime":2602.47,"body":"So this approach, not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2598.99,"endTime":2602.47,"body":"limitations in what we're able"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2602.47,"endTime":2605.26,"body":"to do, because everything that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2602.47,"endTime":2605.26,"body":"we've talked about it does it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2605.26,"endTime":2608.98,"body":"really, really well, it's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2605.26,"endTime":2608.98,"body":"limitation and what we're not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2609.01,"endTime":2613.24,"body":"able to do, imagine that we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2609.01,"endTime":2613.24,"body":"anxiety during the day and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2613.24,"endTime":2618.46,"body":"alcohol use that evening. And we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2613.24,"endTime":2618.46,"body":"follow that for 14 days. That"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2618.46,"endTime":2621.13,"body":"would be a very reasonable"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2618.46,"endTime":2621.13,"body":"application for this. Alright,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2621.13,"endTime":2623.95,"body":"well, let's think about some of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2621.13,"endTime":2623.95,"body":"the limitations that the MLM"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2623.95,"endTime":2628.75,"body":"naturally has first, in a single"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2623.95,"endTime":2628.75,"body":"model, we're only able to look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2628.75,"endTime":2632.95,"body":"at one direction of that effect."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2628.75,"endTime":2632.95,"body":"Yeah, we can look at anxiety to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2632.95,"endTime":2637.36,"body":"alcohol use, but we cannot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2632.95,"endTime":2637.36,"body":"simultaneously look at alcohol"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2637.36,"endTime":2639.4,"body":"use back to anxiety."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2639.43,"endTime":2642.82,"body":"So drinking might make me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2639.43,"endTime":2642.82,"body":"more or less anxious, right?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2642.82,"endTime":2643.0,"body":"That's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2643.0,"endTime":2645.76,"body":"right. Yeah. So I did a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2643.0,"endTime":2645.76,"body":"project a number of years ago"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2645.76,"endTime":2650.26,"body":"with a wonderful guy named Tom"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2645.76,"endTime":2650.26,"body":"wrote a BA and his dissertation,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2650.26,"endTime":2655.45,"body":"he did an early days diary like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2650.26,"endTime":2655.45,"body":"paper pencil. He was really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2655.45,"endTime":2661.09,"body":"interested in panic attacks, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2655.45,"endTime":2661.09,"body":"what were risk factors for that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2661.36,"endTime":2665.05,"body":"And in the morning, he would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2661.36,"endTime":2665.05,"body":"have the individual report how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2665.05,"endTime":2668.98,"body":"fearful Are you that you will"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2665.05,"endTime":2668.98,"body":"experience a panic attack during"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2668.98,"endTime":2672.97,"body":"the day and then that night he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2668.98,"endTime":2672.97,"body":"assessed how many panic attacks"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2672.97,"endTime":2676.9,"body":"did you have during the day? He"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2672.97,"endTime":2676.9,"body":"was interested in was your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2676.9,"endTime":2680.29,"body":"fearfulness in the morning"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2676.9,"endTime":2680.29,"body":"associated with experiencing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2680.29,"endTime":2684.91,"body":"more panic attacks during the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2680.29,"endTime":2684.91,"body":"day, but did your experience of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2684.91,"endTime":2688.99,"body":"panic during the day predict"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2684.91,"endTime":2688.99,"body":"your fearfulness the next"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2688.99,"endTime":2693.04,"body":"morning? So there are some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2688.99,"endTime":2693.04,"body":"really important questions that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2693.04,"endTime":2695.92,"body":"we have about reciprocal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2693.04,"endTime":2695.92,"body":"relations."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2695.95,"endTime":2698.38,"body":"And the MLM approach"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2695.95,"endTime":2698.38,"body":"really just isn't suited for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2698.38,"endTime":2699.73,"body":"that. That's exactly right."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2699.76,"endTime":2703.75,"body":"Yeah. And now the LCM"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2699.76,"endTime":2703.75,"body":"is exceptionally well suited for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2703.75,"endTime":2708.28,"body":"that. Whether it be the random"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2703.75,"endTime":2708.28,"body":"intercept cross like panel model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2708.28,"endTime":2712.36,"body":"or the LCMS, or however you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2708.28,"endTime":2712.36,"body":"approach it, it's really well"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2712.36,"endTime":2716.59,"body":"suited to saying earlier panic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2712.36,"endTime":2716.59,"body":"predicts later fear earlier fear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2716.59,"endTime":2720.79,"body":"predicts later panic, there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2716.59,"endTime":2720.79,"body":"just that little problem that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2720.79,"endTime":2723.91,"body":"can't use that model with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2720.79,"endTime":2723.91,"body":"intensive longitudinal data,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2723.94,"endTime":2727.57,"body":"right? So we do not have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2723.94,"endTime":2727.57,"body":"reciprocal relations within the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2727.57,"endTime":2731.32,"body":"MLM the other drunken punch to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2727.57,"endTime":2731.32,"body":"the face, I know what's coming."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2731.35,"endTime":2732.64,"body":"Well, then you tell me,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2732.67,"endTime":2735.16,"body":"there's this thing that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2732.67,"endTime":2735.16,"body":"you said back when the earth was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2735.16,"endTime":2738.79,"body":"cooling. When we started this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2735.16,"endTime":2738.79,"body":"podcast, you said something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2738.82,"endTime":2742.45,"body":"early and often. And that was if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2738.82,"endTime":2742.45,"body":"you blow measurement, everything"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2742.45,"endTime":2745.39,"body":"else is a problem. What I'm not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2742.45,"endTime":2745.39,"body":"seeing in this model is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2745.39,"endTime":2749.2,"body":"thing that you and I tout all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2745.39,"endTime":2749.2,"body":"the time as being so crazy"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2749.2,"endTime":2753.07,"body":"important. And that is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2749.2,"endTime":2753.07,"body":"ability to accommodate potential"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2753.07,"endTime":2757.51,"body":"measurement error here. I mean,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2753.07,"endTime":2757.51,"body":"I can say, I have outstanding"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2757.51,"endTime":2760.27,"body":"measures of everything that I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2757.51,"endTime":2760.27,"body":"have in my model. And I might be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2760.27,"endTime":2764.32,"body":"able to work in the background"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2760.27,"endTime":2764.32,"body":"with some very fancy, very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2764.32,"endTime":2769.51,"body":"modern ways of trying to get the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2764.32,"endTime":2769.51,"body":"best possible scores that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2769.63,"endTime":2773.59,"body":"technology and money can buy."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2769.63,"endTime":2773.59,"body":"But I can't actually model the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2773.62,"endTime":2775.69,"body":"latent variable directly in this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2773.62,"endTime":2775.69,"body":"system."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2775.72,"endTime":2779.53,"body":"And as Bauer said, in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2775.72,"endTime":2779.53,"body":"the MNLF, a episode, and I can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2779.53,"endTime":2785.08,"body":"make it worse yet, which is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2779.53,"endTime":2785.08,"body":"we're pushing to cell phones. Do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2785.08,"endTime":2788.92,"body":"you feel anxious? Yes or no? Do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2785.08,"endTime":2788.92,"body":"you feel fearful? Yes or no? Do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2788.92,"endTime":2793.57,"body":"you feel uncomfortable? Yes, no,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2788.92,"endTime":2793.57,"body":"we got to go back to first"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2793.57,"endTime":2799.21,"body":"principles. Smitty Stevens, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2793.57,"endTime":2799.21,"body":"principle the assignment of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2799.21,"endTime":2803.23,"body":"numbers to observations, there"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2799.21,"endTime":2803.23,"body":"are a lot of dissertations out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2803.23,"endTime":2807.01,"body":"there to be done to look at not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2803.23,"endTime":2807.01,"body":"only measurement error in these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2807.01,"endTime":2810.16,"body":"models, but the other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2807.01,"endTime":2810.16,"body":"characteristics, are these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2810.16,"endTime":2813.85,"body":"continuous, are these normal are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2810.16,"endTime":2813.85,"body":"these ordinal, or these Likert?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2813.85,"endTime":2817.21,"body":"Are these counts of binary,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2813.85,"endTime":2817.21,"body":"which means we need to be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2817.21,"endTime":2822.37,"body":"thinking about these as poissons"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2817.21,"endTime":2822.37,"body":"or negative binomials. The MLM"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2822.37,"endTime":2826.15,"body":"as we've wax poetic up to this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2822.37,"endTime":2826.15,"body":"point assumes the dependent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2826.15,"endTime":2831.04,"body":"variable is continuous, normal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2826.15,"endTime":2831.04,"body":"and error free. Yeah. So funny"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2831.04,"endTime":2834.73,"body":"story. None of those hold."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2835.66,"endTime":2838.15,"body":"Just like when we talked"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2835.66,"endTime":2838.15,"body":"about the pluses and minuses"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2838.15,"endTime":2840.67,"body":"with regard to growth modeling."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2838.15,"endTime":2840.67,"body":"We're in the situation here"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2840.67,"endTime":2843.19,"body":"where we have pluses and minuses"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2840.67,"endTime":2843.19,"body":"with regard to the intensive"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2843.19,"endTime":2847.03,"body":"longitudinal data. We've talked"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2843.19,"endTime":2847.03,"body":"about all the wonders of an MLM"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2847.03,"endTime":2850.12,"body":"approach, but can we buy"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2847.03,"endTime":2850.12,"body":"something back? That's more in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2850.12,"endTime":2852.19,"body":"the SEM family? We can,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2852.22,"endTime":2856.78,"body":"but we've never met him"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2852.22,"endTime":2856.78,"body":"before. So it turns out sem has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2856.78,"endTime":2860.95,"body":"an older brother. He's gonna"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2856.78,"endTime":2860.95,"body":"come out for open mic night. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2860.95,"endTime":2864.37,"body":"we came out because we've seen"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2860.95,"endTime":2864.37,"body":"sem before and he's hilarious."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2864.37,"endTime":2865.63,"body":"He's funny as heck. You know,"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":2865.63,"endTime":2867.58,"body":"we have a lot of"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":2865.63,"endTime":2867.58,"body":"expressions in the English"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":2867.58,"endTime":2871.27,"body":"language. And we never seem to"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":2867.58,"endTime":2871.27,"body":"examine them very closely, like"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":2871.33,"endTime":2874.57,"body":"legally drunk. leave the guy"},{"speaker":"Unknown","startTime":2871.33,"endTime":2874.57,"body":"alone. He's legally drunk."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2876.28,"endTime":2880.75,"body":"We saw MLM before it oh"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2876.28,"endTime":2880.75,"body":"man kills every time. Who's this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2880.75,"endTime":2886.57,"body":"DSM guy? Nobody's ever heard of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2880.75,"endTime":2886.57,"body":"him. He's gonna come out now."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2886.9,"endTime":2891.04,"body":"What's the deal with lampshade?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2886.9,"endTime":2891.04,"body":"I mean, if it's a lamp, why do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2891.04,"endTime":2896.02,"body":"you want shade? This is dynamic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2891.04,"endTime":2896.02,"body":"structural equation models. This"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2896.02,"endTime":2900.37,"body":"is the brainchild of a lot of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2896.02,"endTime":2900.37,"body":"very smart people. T Amira,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2900.37,"endTime":2905.59,"body":"Kasparov ln hamacher. banked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2900.37,"endTime":2905.59,"body":"moutain others have contributed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2905.59,"endTime":2910.15,"body":"to this. Can we take some of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2905.59,"endTime":2910.15,"body":"basic principles of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2910.15,"endTime":2914.26,"body":"structural equation model? The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2910.15,"endTime":2914.26,"body":"two big ones are Yeah, you want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2914.26,"endTime":2916.84,"body":"to come back the other way with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2914.26,"endTime":2916.84,"body":"a reciprocal effect? Sure."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2917.32,"endTime":2920.14,"body":"Doesn't bother me. You can go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2917.32,"endTime":2920.14,"body":"anywhere you want. And second,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2920.14,"endTime":2922.72,"body":"you want to multiple indicator"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2920.14,"endTime":2922.72,"body":"latent factor. Yeah, I can do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2922.72,"endTime":2922.99,"body":"that."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2923.26,"endTime":2924.43,"body":"Be careful what you wish."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2926.11,"endTime":2929.62,"body":"There we have squared"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2926.11,"endTime":2929.62,"body":"the circle, which is remember"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2929.62,"endTime":2933.73,"body":"maximum likelihood who had baby"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2929.62,"endTime":2933.73,"body":"roiled himself up and was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2933.73,"endTime":2937.15,"body":"flexing in front of the mirror,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2933.73,"endTime":2937.15,"body":"maximum likelihood heard the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2937.15,"endTime":2940.15,"body":"police sirens outside and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2937.15,"endTime":2940.15,"body":"they're like I'm out of here,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2940.42,"endTime":2945.04,"body":"and maximum likelihood is gone."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2940.42,"endTime":2945.04,"body":"right out the window and down"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2945.04,"endTime":2949.3,"body":"the alleyway as the cops pull"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2945.04,"endTime":2949.3,"body":"up. And what I mean is is decem,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2949.3,"endTime":2951.67,"body":"which we're not going to talk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2949.3,"endTime":2951.67,"body":"about here because it's an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2951.67,"endTime":2956.8,"body":"entire episode in and of itself"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2951.67,"endTime":2956.8,"body":"D some, I think conceptually"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2956.8,"endTime":2962.59,"body":"brings in LCM SR like approach"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2956.8,"endTime":2962.59,"body":"within the intensive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2962.59,"endTime":2967.06,"body":"longitudinal design. You can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2962.59,"endTime":2967.06,"body":"have reciprocal relations. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2967.06,"endTime":2971.59,"body":"can have multiple indicator"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2967.06,"endTime":2971.59,"body":"latent factors. You can do sem"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2971.59,"endTime":2976.15,"body":"like things that we want to do,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2971.59,"endTime":2976.15,"body":"but we can do them within the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2976.15,"endTime":2981.43,"body":"ILD kind of high density"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2976.15,"endTime":2981.43,"body":"framework. But what we do is ml"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2981.43,"endTime":2984.88,"body":"broke out the window and ran"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2981.43,"endTime":2984.88,"body":"away when he heard the sirens."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2985.12,"endTime":2990.34,"body":"It's a whole new ballgame in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2985.12,"endTime":2990.34,"body":"estimation. There are a lot of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2990.34,"endTime":2994.48,"body":"unresolved issues, we have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2990.34,"endTime":2994.48,"body":"approach it from a Bayesian"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2994.48,"endTime":2998.68,"body":"perspective. I have no concerns"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2994.48,"endTime":2998.68,"body":"about that. This is just brand"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2998.68,"endTime":3000.69,"body":"new, and we've got a lot To"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2998.68,"endTime":3000.69,"body":"learn,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3000.78,"endTime":3002.85,"body":"well, then I wouldn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3000.78,"endTime":3002.85,"body":"leave it up to us to explain,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3002.97,"endTime":3006.42,"body":"explain it, I wouldn't leave"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3002.97,"endTime":3006.42,"body":"anything up to us. So maybe we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3006.42,"endTime":3008.82,"body":"should get someone in the future"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3006.42,"endTime":3008.82,"body":"who actually knows a little bit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3008.82,"endTime":3010.59,"body":"about DSM to help us out with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3008.82,"endTime":3010.59,"body":"that one."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3010.68,"endTime":3013.65,"body":"So let's seal that jar"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3010.68,"endTime":3013.65,"body":"of pickles and put it on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3013.65,"endTime":3014.94,"body":"back shelf for winter."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3017.31,"endTime":3020.595,"body":"Now I'm just making it up. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3017.31,"endTime":3020.595,"body":"don't even know what that means."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3020.649,"endTime":3023.665,"body":"Okay, let's save DSM for a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3020.649,"endTime":3023.665,"body":"future conversation and maybe"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3023.719,"endTime":3026.52,"body":"loop in some real talent to help"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3023.719,"endTime":3026.52,"body":"us talk about that."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3026.52,"endTime":3031.08,"body":"Maybe we better go take a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3026.52,"endTime":3031.08,"body":"nap on the Davenport. Don't even"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3031.159,"endTime":3031.71,"body":"try No."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3032.82,"endTime":3037.89,"body":"Come on. You're from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3032.82,"endTime":3037.89,"body":"Seattle. Maybe we should go buy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3037.89,"endTime":3040.32,"body":"a cup of coffee and go umbrella"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3037.89,"endTime":3040.32,"body":"shop and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3042.63,"endTime":3048.03,"body":"those are my does respect"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3042.63,"endTime":3048.03,"body":"my people. All right, everybody."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3048.09,"endTime":3049.17,"body":"Take care everybody."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3053.25,"endTime":3055.95,"body":"Thank you so much for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3053.25,"endTime":3055.95,"body":"listening. You can subscribe to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3055.95,"endTime":3059.1,"body":"quantities on Apple podcasts,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3055.95,"endTime":3059.1,"body":"Spotify, or wherever you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3059.1,"endTime":3061.86,"body":"distract yourself from the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3059.1,"endTime":3061.86,"body":"midterm elections. And please"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3061.86,"endTime":3065.07,"body":"leave us a review. You can also"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3061.86,"endTime":3065.07,"body":"follow us on Twitter. We are at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3065.07,"endTime":3068.13,"body":"quantity food pod and check out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3065.07,"endTime":3068.13,"body":"our webpage at quantity food"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3068.13,"endTime":3071.34,"body":"pod.org for past episodes,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3068.13,"endTime":3071.34,"body":"playlists, show notes,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3071.34,"endTime":3074.61,"body":"transcripts and other cool"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3071.34,"endTime":3074.61,"body":"stuff. Finally, you can get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3074.61,"endTime":3078.33,"body":"Conor to theme merch to fulfill"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3074.61,"endTime":3078.33,"body":"your obligatory upcoming secret"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3078.33,"endTime":3082.77,"body":"Santa's assignment@redbubble.com"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3078.33,"endTime":3082.77,"body":"Where All proceeds go to Donors"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3082.77,"endTime":3086.55,"body":"Choose to support low income"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3082.77,"endTime":3086.55,"body":"schools. You have been listening"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3086.55,"endTime":3090.21,"body":"to corner tude. The podcast"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3086.55,"endTime":3090.21,"body":"equivalent to southwest boarding"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3090.21,"endTime":3094.59,"body":"number c 58. Corner tune has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3090.21,"endTime":3094.59,"body":"been brought to you by Elon"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3094.59,"endTime":3098.49,"body":"Musk, whose career trajectory"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3094.59,"endTime":3098.49,"body":"has gone from revolutionising"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3098.49,"endTime":3102.3,"body":"electric vehicles to perfecting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3098.49,"endTime":3102.3,"body":"human spaceflight to becoming"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3102.3,"endTime":3105.93,"body":"obsessed with blue checkmarks"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3102.3,"endTime":3105.93,"body":"and will soon complete its arc"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3105.93,"endTime":3108.87,"body":"when he swings by Greg's house"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3105.93,"endTime":3108.87,"body":"in a few days to help out with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3108.87,"endTime":3113.31,"body":"the podcast by the proper use of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3108.87,"endTime":3113.31,"body":"the Oxford comma proud to be the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3113.31,"endTime":3117.06,"body":"number one source of marital"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3113.31,"endTime":3117.06,"body":"conflict among academic couples"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3117.06,"endTime":3123.48,"body":"since 1905. And buy in person"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3117.06,"endTime":3123.48,"body":"and zoom hybrid job talks. Just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3123.48,"endTime":3127.05,"body":"when you thought that a pandemic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3123.48,"endTime":3127.05,"body":"job taught couldn't possibly get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3127.11,"endTime":3133.38,"body":"any more stressful. Now it does."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3127.11,"endTime":3133.38,"body":"This is most definitely not NPR"}]}