{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":5.009,"endTime":7.769,"body":"Welcome, my name is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":5.009,"endTime":7.769,"body":"Patrick Curran and along with my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":7.769,"endTime":11.519,"body":"dark Kherson Campbell lightning"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":7.769,"endTime":11.519,"body":"friend Greg Hancock, we make up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":11.519,"endTime":14.489,"body":"quantity. We're a podcast"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":11.519,"endTime":14.489,"body":"dedicated to all things"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":14.489,"endTime":17.129,"body":"quantitative ranging from the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":14.489,"endTime":17.129,"body":"irrelevant to the completely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":17.129,"endTime":20.249,"body":"irrelevant. In this week's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":17.129,"endTime":20.249,"body":"episode, Greg and I revisit a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":20.249,"endTime":24.329,"body":"topic we addressed in our second"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":20.249,"endTime":24.329,"body":"ever episode statistical power."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":24.359,"endTime":27.629,"body":"Here we continue our discussion"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":24.359,"endTime":27.629,"body":"by attempting to clarify the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.629,"endTime":31.409,"body":"power of what and we explore"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.629,"endTime":31.409,"body":"ways of obtaining meaningful"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":31.409,"endTime":34.259,"body":"power estimates using the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":31.409,"endTime":34.259,"body":"structural equation modeling"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":34.259,"endTime":38.429,"body":"framework. Along the way, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":34.259,"endTime":38.429,"body":"also discuss tearing arms off"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":38.639,"endTime":43.919,"body":"German dentists, booby prizes,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":38.639,"endTime":43.919,"body":"Dr. Strangelove, making it look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":43.919,"endTime":48.209,"body":"like an accident. Shrug emojis,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":43.919,"endTime":48.209,"body":"the whale petting machine,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":48.539,"endTime":54.719,"body":"baseball and war. Where's Waldo?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":48.539,"endTime":54.719,"body":"Whale holes, the big R squared,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":55.079,"endTime":60.449,"body":"throwing reviewers against the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":55.079,"endTime":60.449,"body":"wall. DIY power. In fairness to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":60.449,"endTime":66.749,"body":"me, egg plants. And screw you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":60.449,"endTime":66.749,"body":"guys. I'm going home. We hope"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":66.749,"endTime":68.279,"body":"you enjoy this week's episode."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":68.88,"endTime":71.16,"body":"I'm looking at you to see"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":68.88,"endTime":71.16,"body":"how you're doing. But I can't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":71.16,"endTime":72.93,"body":"really tell you're very stoic."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":72.99,"endTime":78.6,"body":"Oh, dude, I am falling"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":72.99,"endTime":78.6,"body":"apart at the seams. What's going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":78.6,"endTime":82.35,"body":"on? You know, from when I came"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":78.6,"endTime":82.35,"body":"up to visit you over the summer,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":82.38,"endTime":85.83,"body":"were you surprised to me by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":82.38,"endTime":85.83,"body":"saying I'm going to take you to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":85.83,"endTime":89.19,"body":"this place, you're going to love"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":85.83,"endTime":89.19,"body":"it. And I was foolish enough to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":89.19,"endTime":91.92,"body":"say where we going and you said"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":89.19,"endTime":91.92,"body":"you'll see when we get in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":91.92,"endTime":96.36,"body":"parking lot. After we drive. 45"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":91.92,"endTime":96.36,"body":"minutes, we drive 45 minutes. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":96.36,"endTime":99.66,"body":"pull into the parking lot. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":96.36,"endTime":99.66,"body":"it's one of those parachute"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":99.66,"endTime":104.34,"body":"places where they blow a fan and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":99.66,"endTime":104.34,"body":"you ride on the air. I have two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":104.34,"endTime":108.78,"body":"immediate thoughts. One is this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":104.34,"endTime":108.78,"body":"was so thoughtful of you. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":108.78,"endTime":113.31,"body":"the second is you're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":108.78,"endTime":113.31,"body":"tear my arm out of its socket"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":113.43,"endTime":117.93,"body":"because I have a severed rotator"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":113.43,"endTime":117.93,"body":"cuff tendon which I had failed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":117.93,"endTime":122.19,"body":"to tell you about. I am finally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":117.93,"endTime":122.19,"body":"sucking it up and then a couple"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":122.19,"endTime":124.77,"body":"of weeks I'm going to have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":122.19,"endTime":124.77,"body":"reconstructive surgery on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":124.77,"endTime":129.96,"body":"shoulder as a booby prize a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":124.77,"endTime":129.96,"body":"couple of days after I scheduled"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":129.99,"endTime":133.77,"body":"the surgery, I had to have an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":129.99,"endTime":133.77,"body":"emergency root canal."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":133.83,"endTime":134.58,"body":"Oh boy,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":134.7,"endTime":137.52,"body":"I don't want you to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":134.7,"endTime":137.52,"body":"picture something. All right,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":137.55,"endTime":142.05,"body":"you and I are producers on a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":137.55,"endTime":142.05,"body":"movie. We say we've got a couple"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":142.05,"endTime":147.27,"body":"of minutes scene, but I need you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":142.05,"endTime":147.27,"body":"to send a brilliant endodontic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":147.27,"endTime":154.65,"body":"surgeon who has a German accent"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":147.27,"endTime":154.65,"body":"and seems to way overly enjoy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":154.65,"endTime":159.6,"body":"her job. And central casting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":154.65,"endTime":159.6,"body":"says, Okay, I got it. This"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":159.6,"endTime":163.83,"body":"wouldn't be the person who I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":159.6,"endTime":163.83,"body":"went to about 45 minutes into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":163.83,"endTime":168.03,"body":"it. She starts talking to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":163.83,"endTime":168.03,"body":"herself. It's all done through a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":168.03,"endTime":171.24,"body":"microscope. So she has this big"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":168.03,"endTime":171.24,"body":"microscope that goes off a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":171.24,"endTime":174.78,"body":"mirror as she's working on my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":171.24,"endTime":174.78,"body":"tooth. I can't do the German"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":174.78,"endTime":179.19,"body":"accent. Maybe I can say some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":174.78,"endTime":179.19,"body":"lines. And you can say, okay, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":179.19,"endTime":182.43,"body":"I want you to say you're the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":179.19,"endTime":182.43,"body":"perfect patient, you don't move"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":182.43,"endTime":184.95,"body":"at all, you just leave me alone"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":182.43,"endTime":184.95,"body":"with my microscope,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":185.009,"endTime":188.969,"body":"you as a perfect patient."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":185.009,"endTime":188.969,"body":"You just leave me alone with my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":188.969,"endTime":192.899,"body":"microscope to do this work that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":188.969,"endTime":192.899,"body":"I'm doing on your tools right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":192.899,"endTime":193.319,"body":"now."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":195.09,"endTime":199.56,"body":"That was pretty much"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":195.09,"endTime":199.56,"body":"it. Okay, I have never had so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":199.56,"endTime":203.25,"body":"much confidence in a health care"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":199.56,"endTime":203.25,"body":"provider. She was amazing. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":203.25,"endTime":206.61,"body":"oh my god, she just scared the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":203.25,"endTime":206.61,"body":"living crap out of me. And at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":206.61,"endTime":210.21,"body":"one point, she stops now I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":206.61,"endTime":210.21,"body":"going to try Okay, ready, I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":210.21,"endTime":214.08,"body":"gonna buy there she stops and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":210.21,"endTime":214.08,"body":"she says too complex. You must"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":214.08,"endTime":218.91,"body":"come back. She throws in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":214.08,"endTime":218.91,"body":"temporary filling. And I have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":218.91,"endTime":222.51,"body":"go back next week. That was my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":218.91,"endTime":222.51,"body":"Oh, you're about to have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":222.51,"endTime":227.4,"body":"shoulder surgery. Why we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":222.51,"endTime":227.4,"body":"something for you. Wait, don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":227.4,"endTime":233.31,"body":"answer yet. Dr. Strangelove, is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":227.4,"endTime":233.31,"body":"going to do a dental procedure"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":233.31,"endTime":233.88,"body":"on you."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":234.09,"endTime":238.23,"body":"The whole point of the"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":234.09,"endTime":238.23,"body":"Doomsday machine is lost if you"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":238.23,"endTime":240.15,"body":"keep it a secret, right? I"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":238.23,"endTime":240.15,"body":"didn't tell them."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":241.59,"endTime":244.05,"body":"So yes, thank you for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":241.59,"endTime":244.05,"body":"asking."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":244.169,"endTime":245.819,"body":"I mean, at some point,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":244.169,"endTime":245.819,"body":"we're just going to have to have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":245.819,"endTime":246.539,"body":"you put down"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":246.6,"endTime":250.2,"body":"Almost verbatim that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":246.6,"endTime":250.2,"body":"what one of my kids said. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":250.2,"endTime":253.32,"body":"the other one said make it look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":250.2,"endTime":253.32,"body":"like an accident or else we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":253.32,"endTime":258.48,"body":"won't get the insurance money."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":253.32,"endTime":258.48,"body":"But what it did make me think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":258.48,"endTime":261.27,"body":"about and it's what we're going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":258.48,"endTime":261.27,"body":"to segue into today's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":261.27,"endTime":264.57,"body":"conversation, you can start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":261.27,"endTime":264.57,"body":"something and then at some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":264.57,"endTime":269.76,"body":"point, you say, This is too"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":264.57,"endTime":269.76,"body":"complex, and you just stop. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":269.76,"endTime":274.86,"body":"did that with our power episode."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":269.76,"endTime":274.86,"body":"Ooh, taken out of context, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":274.86,"endTime":280.44,"body":"might have advocated for using"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":274.86,"endTime":280.44,"body":"emojis for power analysis, one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":280.44,"endTime":284.13,"body":"of which was a poop emoji. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":280.44,"endTime":284.13,"body":"somehow an eggplant came into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":284.13,"endTime":290.13,"body":"play as well. Came off the rails"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":284.13,"endTime":290.13,"body":"a little bit. But we in some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":290.13,"endTime":294.21,"body":"ways were misconstrued because I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":290.13,"endTime":294.21,"body":"have heard multiple people say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":294.21,"endTime":297.24,"body":"Well, I know Greg and Patrick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":294.21,"endTime":297.24,"body":"are anti power. Yeah, right."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.24,"endTime":301.83,"body":"Right. And that is patently"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.24,"endTime":301.83,"body":"untrue. Uh, I am not anti power,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":301.83,"endTime":306.63,"body":"you are not anti power. But what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":301.83,"endTime":306.63,"body":"the punch line of that episode"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":306.63,"endTime":311.04,"body":"was that came up multiple times,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":306.63,"endTime":311.04,"body":"because we're really bad at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":311.04,"endTime":314.07,"body":"editing. And if we'd redid it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":311.04,"endTime":314.07,"body":"now, it only would have come up"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":314.07,"endTime":320.64,"body":"once is the power of what Yes."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":314.07,"endTime":320.64,"body":"And I expressed frustration in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":320.67,"endTime":324.27,"body":"being part of grant reviews"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":320.67,"endTime":324.27,"body":"where there is a multiple group"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":324.3,"endTime":328.8,"body":"bivariate latent curve model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":324.3,"endTime":328.8,"body":"with structured residuals. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":328.8,"endTime":333.06,"body":"the reviewer says, The applicant"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":328.8,"endTime":333.06,"body":"must demonstrate adequate power."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":333.12,"endTime":337.02,"body":"And I don't even know what that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":333.12,"endTime":337.02,"body":"means, because it is too complex"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":337.44,"endTime":338.49,"body":"to complex."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":339.78,"endTime":342.51,"body":"Let me see if I can pull"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":339.78,"endTime":342.51,"body":"all this together, you are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":342.54,"endTime":346.2,"body":"likening power analysis to a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":342.54,"endTime":346.2,"body":"root canal and that we didn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":346.23,"endTime":349.23,"body":"finish the job. The first time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":346.23,"endTime":349.23,"body":"around, we got into power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":349.23,"endTime":351.39,"body":"analysis, but was like episode"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":349.23,"endTime":351.39,"body":"two."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":352.86,"endTime":356.28,"body":"I know I just I have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":352.86,"endTime":356.28,"body":"repressed the first two years."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":357.66,"endTime":360.45,"body":"I would characterize that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":357.66,"endTime":360.45,"body":"as what I might call a curse the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":360.45,"endTime":363.57,"body":"darkness episode, we were"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":360.45,"endTime":363.57,"body":"grousing about power analysis,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":363.57,"endTime":367.77,"body":"power analysis. First of all is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":363.57,"endTime":367.77,"body":"hard. It is complex. And to try"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":367.77,"endTime":371.46,"body":"to distill it down into one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":367.77,"endTime":371.46,"body":"thing is just foolish. I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":371.46,"endTime":375.33,"body":"we talked about the complexities"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":371.46,"endTime":375.33,"body":"of it a lot. But we didn't light"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":375.33,"endTime":377.91,"body":"the candle, because at the end"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":375.33,"endTime":377.91,"body":"of the day, that root canal"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":377.91,"endTime":380.28,"body":"needs to be finished or you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":377.91,"endTime":380.28,"body":"still going to have a problem."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":380.31,"endTime":383.19,"body":"So I think what we could do to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":380.31,"endTime":383.19,"body":"pair with that maybe some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":383.19,"endTime":386.58,"body":"suggestions for actually how to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":383.19,"endTime":386.58,"body":"conduct a power analysis, how to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":386.58,"endTime":389.76,"body":"think about it, because we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":386.58,"endTime":389.76,"body":"to do it. And to be crystal"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":389.76,"endTime":393.99,"body":"clear. You and I support doing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":389.76,"endTime":393.99,"body":"power analysis."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":394.02,"endTime":396.45,"body":"You mean there's more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":394.02,"endTime":396.45,"body":"to academia than cursing the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":396.45,"endTime":400.53,"body":"darkness? Dude, I've been in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":396.45,"endTime":400.53,"body":"game for like 30 years and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":400.53,"endTime":404.04,"body":"nobody has ever talked to me"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":400.53,"endTime":404.04,"body":"about lighting a candle. What"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":404.04,"endTime":405.54,"body":"kind of boat is that?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":406.23,"endTime":408.63,"body":"Let's put on some acoustic"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":406.23,"endTime":408.63,"body":"guitar Patrick and light some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":408.63,"endTime":409.02,"body":"candles."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":416.07,"endTime":420.81,"body":"And that probably is going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":416.07,"endTime":420.81,"body":"require us to do a speed recap"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":420.81,"endTime":422.67,"body":"of power analysis. In a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":420.81,"endTime":422.67,"body":"nutshell,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":422.76,"endTime":425.76,"body":"I think that this is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":422.76,"endTime":425.76,"body":"going to involve the whale, pedi"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":425.76,"endTime":426.21,"body":"machine."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":427.17,"endTime":429.9,"body":"If anybody gets that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":427.17,"endTime":429.9,"body":"reference, you've either taken a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":429.9,"endTime":433.5,"body":"class with Patrick and God help"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":429.9,"endTime":433.5,"body":"you. Or you listen to one of our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":433.5,"endTime":437.31,"body":"very, very early episodes. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":433.5,"endTime":437.31,"body":"again, I repeat that, yeah,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":437.31,"endTime":439.98,"body":"either way, you're kind of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":437.31,"endTime":439.98,"body":"screwed. All right, tell us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":439.98,"endTime":440.46,"body":"about your whale."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":441.21,"endTime":446.52,"body":"Every example I ever"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":441.21,"endTime":446.52,"body":"use either uses baseball or war."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":446.58,"endTime":450.75,"body":"It turns out that those work"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":446.58,"endTime":450.75,"body":"really well as examples. Unless"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":450.75,"endTime":455.43,"body":"you have no interest in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":450.75,"endTime":455.43,"body":"baseball, or war. The backstory"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":455.43,"endTime":459.63,"body":"briefly is I talked about type"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":455.43,"endTime":459.63,"body":"one and type two error. And I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":459.63,"endTime":463.86,"body":"talked about an enemy submarine"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":459.63,"endTime":463.86,"body":"and you're in a submarine. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":463.86,"endTime":466.68,"body":"you have to know whether the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":463.86,"endTime":466.68,"body":"enemy sub is out there. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":466.68,"endTime":469.68,"body":"don't want to miss it if it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":466.68,"endTime":469.68,"body":"there, because it puts you in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":469.68,"endTime":474.54,"body":"danger. But you don't want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":469.68,"endTime":474.54,"body":"give away your position by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":474.54,"endTime":478.17,"body":"responding in a way to something"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":474.54,"endTime":478.17,"body":"that's not there. Some students"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":478.17,"endTime":482.07,"body":"very good naturedly said Is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":478.17,"endTime":482.07,"body":"there any example that you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":482.07,"endTime":485.19,"body":"use that doesn't involve one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":482.07,"endTime":485.19,"body":"person trying to kill another"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":485.19,"endTime":488.73,"body":"person? I came up with the whale"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":485.19,"endTime":488.73,"body":"petting machine, which is you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":488.73,"endTime":491.43,"body":"are underwater and you're not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":488.73,"endTime":491.43,"body":"looking for an enemy submarine."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":491.55,"endTime":495.54,"body":"But you're looking for a whale."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":491.55,"endTime":495.54,"body":"Everybody knows whales like to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":495.54,"endTime":498.75,"body":"be petted. You don't want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":495.54,"endTime":498.75,"body":"miss a whale that goes by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":498.75,"endTime":501.33,"body":"without petting it because it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":498.75,"endTime":501.33,"body":"going to make it sad. Now in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":501.33,"endTime":504.63,"body":"prior conversation, you told us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":501.33,"endTime":504.63,"body":"what a sad whale was. So go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":504.63,"endTime":507.51,"body":"ahead, or was that me? I forgot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":504.63,"endTime":507.51,"body":"you did."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":508.23,"endTime":511.5,"body":"You. Alright, let's hear"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":508.23,"endTime":511.5,"body":"what remind us Patrick. What a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":511.5,"endTime":517.38,"body":"sad whale sounds like that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":511.5,"endTime":517.38,"body":"sounded better before you needed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":517.38,"endTime":518.55,"body":"a root canal. Oh, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":518.55,"endTime":520.92,"body":"want me to make the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":518.55,"endTime":520.92,"body":"whales out? Actually, I was just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":521.07,"endTime":524.79,"body":"living my two. So you don't want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":521.07,"endTime":524.79,"body":"to miss a whale? That's really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":524.79,"endTime":527.79,"body":"there. But what's super"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":524.79,"endTime":527.79,"body":"important is you don't want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":527.79,"endTime":532.65,"body":"extend the Petit machine if a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":527.79,"endTime":532.65,"body":"whale is not there, because it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":532.65,"endTime":535.35,"body":"scares away the other whales."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":532.65,"endTime":535.35,"body":"That's power."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":537.3,"endTime":540.99,"body":"Okay, it's crystal clear"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":537.3,"endTime":540.99,"body":"everybody to clarify that a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":540.99,"endTime":544.44,"body":"little bit. Do you have any"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":540.99,"endTime":544.44,"body":"other language you could use?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":544.6,"endTime":548.05,"body":"Or Starburst? Or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":544.6,"endTime":548.05,"body":"Starburst or whale man God now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":548.05,"endTime":551.47,"body":"we're gonna hear from Tove about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":548.05,"endTime":551.47,"body":"that one, aren't we? Spear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":551.47,"endTime":552.73,"body":"horned bears here."},{"speaker":"Tove","startTime":554.22,"endTime":556.53,"body":"Hi, this Tove Larsen"},{"speaker":"Tove","startTime":554.22,"endTime":556.53,"body":"faculty member in applied"},{"speaker":"Tove","startTime":556.53,"endTime":560.16,"body":"linguistics and quantitative"},{"speaker":"Tove","startTime":556.53,"endTime":560.16,"body":"Swedish consultant. I am happy"},{"speaker":"Tove","startTime":560.16,"endTime":563.52,"body":"to report that neither listener"},{"speaker":"Tove","startTime":560.16,"endTime":563.52,"body":"in Sweden was offended. Right?"},{"speaker":"Tove","startTime":563.52,"endTime":564.72,"body":"Hendrick nodded."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":565.14,"endTime":567.36,"body":"Okay, here's the deal,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":565.14,"endTime":567.36,"body":"folks. This is going to be a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":567.36,"endTime":572.1,"body":"whirlwind tour through a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":567.36,"endTime":572.1,"body":"frequentist perspective on no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":572.1,"endTime":575.85,"body":"hypothesis testing. Right. Levy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":572.1,"endTime":575.85,"body":"pay attention. All right, maybe"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":575.85,"endTime":576.84,"body":"you'll learn something out of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":575.85,"endTime":576.84,"body":"it."},{"speaker":"Roy Levy","startTime":577.65,"endTime":579.3,"body":"Hey, this is where we"},{"speaker":"Roy Levy","startTime":577.65,"endTime":579.3,"body":"live in Arizona State"},{"speaker":"Roy Levy","startTime":579.3,"endTime":581.46,"body":"University. When you start"},{"speaker":"Roy Levy","startTime":579.3,"endTime":581.46,"body":"thinking about statistical"},{"speaker":"Roy Levy","startTime":581.46,"endTime":583.65,"body":"power, a Bayesian perspective"},{"speaker":"Roy Levy","startTime":581.46,"endTime":583.65,"body":"can really be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":584.05,"endTime":588.91,"body":"Nope. Null hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":584.05,"endTime":588.91,"body":"testing is like Where's Waldo."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":588.94,"endTime":593.53,"body":"Okay, we have two conditions in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":588.94,"endTime":593.53,"body":"the population that exist."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":593.59,"endTime":598.09,"body":"Imagine that we have a treatment"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":593.59,"endTime":598.09,"body":"group and a control group and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":598.09,"endTime":601.27,"body":"you put 1000 hours of blood"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":598.09,"endTime":601.27,"body":"sweat and tears into your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":601.27,"endTime":604.42,"body":"dissertation. You do an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":601.27,"endTime":604.42,"body":"intervention with kids in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":604.45,"endTime":607.87,"body":"schools to try to improve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":604.45,"endTime":607.87,"body":"reading and you want to know,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":607.87,"endTime":611.44,"body":"was your reading intervention"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":607.87,"endTime":611.44,"body":"successful? Did it improve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":611.44,"endTime":615.07,"body":"reading to a greater extent than"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":611.44,"endTime":615.07,"body":"you would expect the by chance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":615.07,"endTime":618.49,"body":"alone? The null hypothesis now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":615.07,"endTime":618.49,"body":"we're going to super stressed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":618.49,"endTime":624.58,"body":"this in the population is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":618.49,"endTime":624.58,"body":"two population means are equal."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":624.61,"endTime":628.51,"body":"Okay? There is no difference in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":624.61,"endTime":628.51,"body":"the population. The alternative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":628.51,"endTime":632.95,"body":"hypothesis is we're just a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":628.51,"endTime":632.95,"body":"roomful of cowards. And we say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":632.95,"endTime":637.45,"body":"well, I'm going to die on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":632.95,"endTime":637.45,"body":"hill of the null hypothesis that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":637.45,"endTime":641.02,"body":"they're equal. But if the null"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":637.45,"endTime":641.02,"body":"doesn't hold, I'm going to say"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":641.14,"endTime":647.71,"body":"the two population means are not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":641.14,"endTime":647.71,"body":"equal. Ooh, yeah, very good."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":647.71,"endTime":652.06,"body":"See, so either they are equal,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":647.71,"endTime":652.06,"body":"or they are not equal. So that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":652.06,"endTime":655.36,"body":"the null hypothesis and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":652.06,"endTime":655.36,"body":"alternative. Now, that's what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":655.36,"endTime":660.16,"body":"exists in the population that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":655.36,"endTime":660.16,"body":"believe to be there. But that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":660.19,"endTime":663.19,"body":"don't have access to we want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":660.19,"endTime":663.19,"body":"make a probabilistic inference"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":663.19,"endTime":667.06,"body":"about that. So now think about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":663.19,"endTime":667.06,"body":"the decision that we're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":667.06,"endTime":672.01,"body":"make you do your 1000 hours of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":667.06,"endTime":672.01,"body":"blood, sweat and tears, you find"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":672.07,"endTime":675.64,"body":"the treatment group had higher"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":672.07,"endTime":675.64,"body":"reading skills than the control"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":675.64,"endTime":679.48,"body":"group did. So now you have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":675.64,"endTime":679.48,"body":"make a decision? Are the group"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":679.48,"endTime":682.63,"body":"means different from what you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":679.48,"endTime":682.63,"body":"would expect by chance alone? Or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":682.63,"endTime":685.96,"body":"are they not picture a little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":682.63,"endTime":685.96,"body":"two by two contingency table?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":686.23,"endTime":690.7,"body":"The columns are the population,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":686.23,"endTime":690.7,"body":"the no holds, or the Nolde does"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":690.7,"endTime":695.86,"body":"not hold? And the rose is, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":690.7,"endTime":695.86,"body":"did you decide? Did you accept"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":695.86,"endTime":699.22,"body":"the null? Or did you reject the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":695.86,"endTime":699.22,"body":"null? And that's the whale"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":699.22,"endTime":702.34,"body":"petting machine? Is there a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":699.22,"endTime":702.34,"body":"whale there? Is there not a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":702.34,"endTime":706.66,"body":"whale there? Did you extend the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":702.34,"endTime":706.66,"body":"petting machine? Or did you not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":706.66,"endTime":709.36,"body":"extend the petting machine? Do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":706.66,"endTime":709.36,"body":"you understand? Now, Greg, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":709.36,"endTime":712.12,"body":"could not have been more clear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":709.36,"endTime":712.12,"body":"with the whale petting machine."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":712.36,"endTime":714.52,"body":"I'm not sure I needed all this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":712.36,"endTime":714.52,"body":"other crap."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":716.02,"endTime":718.12,"body":"I'm sad having to listen"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":716.02,"endTime":718.12,"body":"to that explanation. But go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":718.12,"endTime":718.51,"body":"ahead. Yeah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":720.43,"endTime":725.35,"body":"We actually have in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":720.43,"endTime":725.35,"body":"that two by two table to correct"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":725.35,"endTime":730.9,"body":"decisions. And we have two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":725.35,"endTime":730.9,"body":"incorrect decisions or errors."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":731.14,"endTime":734.26,"body":"And if there are two of them, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":731.14,"endTime":734.26,"body":"got a hankering to call them a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":734.26,"endTime":738.88,"body":"type one error, or a type two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":734.26,"endTime":738.88,"body":"error. That's where those terms"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":738.88,"endTime":741.85,"body":"come from. All right, well, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":738.88,"endTime":741.85,"body":"are the correct decisions? The"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":741.85,"endTime":746.23,"body":"correct is you conclude there is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":741.85,"endTime":746.23,"body":"not an effect when there really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":746.23,"endTime":749.71,"body":"is not an effect, or you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":746.23,"endTime":749.71,"body":"conclude there is an effect when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":749.71,"endTime":753.16,"body":"there really is an effect. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":749.71,"endTime":753.16,"body":"what are those two errors, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":753.16,"endTime":756.37,"body":"this is what we pay a lot of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":753.16,"endTime":756.37,"body":"attention to in classes and in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":756.37,"endTime":761.8,"body":"work is an error of the first"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":756.37,"endTime":761.8,"body":"kind type one is what our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":761.83,"endTime":765.46,"body":"standard p value is focused"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":761.83,"endTime":765.46,"body":"around, which is what is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":765.46,"endTime":768.97,"body":"probability you're going to say"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":765.46,"endTime":768.97,"body":"there really is an effect when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":768.97,"endTime":772.36,"body":"there is not a false positive,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":768.97,"endTime":772.36,"body":"you extend the whale petting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":772.36,"endTime":774.94,"body":"machine, and there's not a whale"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":772.36,"endTime":774.94,"body":"there, and you scare all the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":774.94,"endTime":777.37,"body":"other whales away? Alright, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":774.94,"endTime":777.37,"body":"does it mean for your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":777.37,"endTime":780.52,"body":"dissertation? What you concluded"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":777.37,"endTime":780.52,"body":"the reading intervention was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":780.52,"endTime":785.59,"body":"successful, but it wasn't Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":780.52,"endTime":785.59,"body":"type two error is you say that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":785.59,"endTime":789.73,"body":"there is not an effect when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":785.59,"endTime":789.73,"body":"there really is an effect. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":789.73,"endTime":792.58,"body":"that makes the whale sad,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":789.73,"endTime":792.58,"body":"because there is a whale and it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":792.58,"endTime":795.1,"body":"wants to be petted, and you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":792.58,"endTime":795.1,"body":"not going to pet it. And whales"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":795.1,"endTime":798.1,"body":"are highly ruminative. And it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":795.1,"endTime":798.1,"body":"going to go back to its little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":798.1,"endTime":802.03,"body":"whale hole that it lives in on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":798.1,"endTime":802.03,"body":"the ocean floor. And it's just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":802.03,"endTime":803.92,"body":"going to ruminate for the rest"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":802.03,"endTime":803.92,"body":"of the day."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":803.95,"endTime":805.12,"body":"Where did you go to school"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":805.15,"endTime":805.84,"body":"Colorado?"},{"speaker":"Roy Levy","startTime":807.4,"endTime":810.88,"body":"Not a lot of whale"},{"speaker":"Roy Levy","startTime":807.4,"endTime":810.88,"body":"holes,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":810.93,"endTime":815.19,"body":"what we focus a lot on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":810.93,"endTime":815.19,"body":"is type one error, what is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":815.19,"endTime":818.67,"body":"probability that you're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":815.19,"endTime":818.67,"body":"reject the null if the null is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":818.67,"endTime":821.85,"body":"actually true? Alright, so you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":818.67,"endTime":821.85,"body":"say there's an effect when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":821.85,"endTime":825.96,"body":"there's not. What power is,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":821.85,"endTime":825.96,"body":"though is what is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":825.96,"endTime":829.86,"body":"probability we're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":825.96,"endTime":829.86,"body":"reject the null if the null is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":829.86,"endTime":833.97,"body":"false? What that means is,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":829.86,"endTime":833.97,"body":"what's the probability that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":833.97,"endTime":838.08,"body":"you're going to find an effect?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":833.97,"endTime":838.08,"body":"If an effect really exists?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":838.14,"endTime":839.1,"body":"That's power?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":839.16,"endTime":842.97,"body":"Well, it's sort of power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":839.16,"endTime":842.97,"body":"in the following way, right?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":842.97,"endTime":847.56,"body":"When you set up that dichotomy"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":842.97,"endTime":847.56,"body":"of the null hypothesis is true,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":847.59,"endTime":851.37,"body":"or the null hypothesis is false."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":847.59,"endTime":851.37,"body":"That all hypothesis being true"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":851.52,"endTime":856.23,"body":"is one case. The null hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":851.52,"endTime":856.23,"body":"being false is many, many, many"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":856.23,"endTime":859.32,"body":"cases, it's all the cases where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":856.23,"endTime":859.32,"body":"mu one and mu two are not equal"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":859.32,"endTime":863.01,"body":"to each other. And when we talk"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":859.32,"endTime":863.01,"body":"about power, it's not the null"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":863.01,"endTime":866.4,"body":"hypothesis being false it is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":863.01,"endTime":866.4,"body":"null hypothesis being false in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":866.4,"endTime":870.57,"body":"specific way to a specific"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":866.4,"endTime":870.57,"body":"degree that seems to get lost"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":870.57,"endTime":873.93,"body":"sometimes in the way we talk"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":870.57,"endTime":873.93,"body":"about things. So power has to do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":873.93,"endTime":876.87,"body":"with the probability of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":873.93,"endTime":876.87,"body":"rejecting the null hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":877.05,"endTime":881.28,"body":"when not only is it false, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":877.05,"endTime":881.28,"body":"it is false to a very specific"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":881.31,"endTime":885.66,"body":"degree power is easiest"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":881.31,"endTime":885.66,"body":"to think about and to learn and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":885.66,"endTime":889.53,"body":"to get our head around in this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":885.66,"endTime":889.53,"body":"two group kind of scenario. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":889.53,"endTime":892.5,"body":"have two population means are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":889.53,"endTime":892.5,"body":"they equal or not? We have two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":892.5,"endTime":895.86,"body":"sample means are they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":892.5,"endTime":895.86,"body":"sufficiently different that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":895.86,"endTime":899.97,"body":"would not attribute those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":895.86,"endTime":899.97,"body":"differences to chance alone? If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":900.0,"endTime":904.44,"body":"For the null hypothesis was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":900.0,"endTime":904.44,"body":"true, we don't do the field a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":904.44,"endTime":908.67,"body":"service because what we do is we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":904.44,"endTime":908.67,"body":"teach power in these hyper"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":908.67,"endTime":912.09,"body":"contrived situations, you have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":908.67,"endTime":912.09,"body":"to group means you have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":912.09,"endTime":916.41,"body":"correlation, you have a multiple"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":912.09,"endTime":916.41,"body":"r squared. And I feel like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":916.41,"endTime":919.59,"body":"that's the framework that we get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":916.41,"endTime":919.59,"body":"for power. All right now all of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":919.59,"endTime":922.95,"body":"you as you're driving or mowing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":919.59,"endTime":922.95,"body":"the lawn or cooking dinner, or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":922.95,"endTime":926.28,"body":"whatever you're doing right now,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":922.95,"endTime":926.28,"body":"think about the work that you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":926.28,"endTime":928.86,"body":"doing right now, not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":926.28,"endTime":928.86,"body":"hypothetically, not sometime in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":928.86,"endTime":931.65,"body":"the future that you're doing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":928.86,"endTime":931.65,"body":"right now, how many of you are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":931.65,"endTime":934.38,"body":"doing your entire research"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":931.65,"endTime":934.38,"body":"project comparing two means?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":934.65,"endTime":936.72,"body":"Nobody? Nobody out there"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":936.75,"endTime":940.41,"body":"sit on a grant panel? When"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":936.75,"endTime":940.41,"body":"is the last time that you saw a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":940.41,"endTime":943.23,"body":"two sample T test? When is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":940.41,"endTime":943.23,"body":"last time you even saw a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":943.23,"endTime":946.86,"body":"multiple regression? And the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":943.23,"endTime":946.86,"body":"answer is never. But those are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":946.86,"endTime":950.34,"body":"the things for which we are at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":946.86,"endTime":950.34,"body":"best trained to think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":950.34,"endTime":953.13,"body":"power. But even if I take a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":950.34,"endTime":953.13,"body":"multiple regression, it is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":953.16,"endTime":957.39,"body":"almost always the power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":953.16,"endTime":957.39,"body":"associated with the omnibus R"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":957.39,"endTime":960.24,"body":"squared associated with the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":957.39,"endTime":960.24,"body":"whole multiple regression model."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.27,"endTime":964.74,"body":"How many subjects do you need to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.27,"endTime":964.74,"body":"be able to have enough power to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":964.74,"endTime":968.16,"body":"get a statistically significant"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":964.74,"endTime":968.16,"body":"R squared to be able to proclaim"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":968.4,"endTime":972.6,"body":"that there is some nonzero"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":968.4,"endTime":972.6,"body":"population multiple correlation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":972.6,"endTime":976.56,"body":"coefficient? That's all fine and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":972.6,"endTime":976.56,"body":"good. But my research question"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":976.56,"endTime":979.59,"body":"is not about the big R squared."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":976.56,"endTime":979.59,"body":"My research question is almost"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":979.59,"endTime":982.53,"body":"never about the big R squared."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":979.59,"endTime":982.53,"body":"My research question is almost"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":982.53,"endTime":985.32,"body":"always about the individual"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":982.53,"endTime":985.32,"body":"predictors, right? To what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":985.32,"endTime":988.98,"body":"extent is this helping me to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":985.32,"endTime":988.98,"body":"understand why above and beyond"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":988.98,"endTime":992.01,"body":"these other things that I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":988.98,"endTime":992.01,"body":"controlling for? And already,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":992.04,"endTime":995.37,"body":"we're asking you to think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":992.04,"endTime":995.37,"body":"power in things that transcend"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":995.37,"endTime":998.28,"body":"the level that you're typically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":995.37,"endTime":998.28,"body":"formally trained to do? You and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":998.28,"endTime":1001.28,"body":"I have talked ad"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":998.28,"endTime":1001.28,"body":"nauseam about the structural"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1001.28,"endTime":1004.73,"body":"equation model about the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1001.28,"endTime":1004.73,"body":"generality of that about how a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1004.73,"endTime":1009.29,"body":"lot of things that we do t test"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1004.73,"endTime":1009.29,"body":"to know Vancouver regression,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1009.29,"endTime":1013.61,"body":"CFA, all of these fit into that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1009.29,"endTime":1013.61,"body":"framework, not everything, but a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1013.61,"endTime":1018.05,"body":"whole lot of things. And it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1013.61,"endTime":1018.05,"body":"turns out, there is 30 freakin"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1018.05,"endTime":1023.72,"body":"years, maybe 40 years of work on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1018.05,"endTime":1023.72,"body":"power analysis within the SEM,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1023.75,"endTime":1027.44,"body":"but you don't see that a lot."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1023.75,"endTime":1027.44,"body":"And I think what we should do is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1027.44,"endTime":1030.2,"body":"pivot into the year though"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1027.44,"endTime":1030.2,"body":"candle"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1030.26,"endTime":1036.74,"body":"light a candle, Patrick?"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1030.26,"endTime":1036.74,"body":"Can the burpees light a candle?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1037.7,"endTime":1041.96,"body":"Let's revisit some of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1037.7,"endTime":1041.96,"body":"these classic concepts. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1041.96,"endTime":1046.1,"body":"through the perspective of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1041.96,"endTime":1046.1,"body":"SEM, because what I was grousing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1046.1,"endTime":1050.66,"body":"about on that earlier episode is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1046.1,"endTime":1050.66,"body":"a grant reviewer says the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1050.66,"endTime":1054.8,"body":"applicant did not adequately"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1050.66,"endTime":1054.8,"body":"demonstrate sufficient power to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1054.8,"endTime":1058.61,"body":"conduct the analyses proposed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1054.8,"endTime":1058.61,"body":"here, and I throw him against"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1058.61,"endTime":1064.55,"body":"the wall, not the reviewer. One"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1058.61,"endTime":1064.55,"body":"time, the judge told me those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1064.55,"endTime":1070.1,"body":"records there. We can't talk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1064.55,"endTime":1070.1,"body":"about that. The reviews I throw"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1070.1,"endTime":1074.0,"body":"against the wall. And I say the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1070.1,"endTime":1074.0,"body":"power of what? Well, what we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1074.0,"endTime":1077.57,"body":"going to talk about within this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1074.0,"endTime":1077.57,"body":"SEM framework is it's going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1077.57,"endTime":1081.95,"body":"involve Coors Light Green Day in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1077.57,"endTime":1081.95,"body":"my garage, I know"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1081.979,"endTime":1082.909,"body":"Yeah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1090.53,"endTime":1092.42,"body":"You're gonna go out in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1090.53,"endTime":1092.42,"body":"the garage, and you're gonna"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1092.42,"endTime":1097.4,"body":"build the damn model to get the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1092.42,"endTime":1097.4,"body":"damn power effect that is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1097.4,"endTime":1102.17,"body":"specific to your hypotheses. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1097.4,"endTime":1102.17,"body":"we can reach inside these really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1102.17,"endTime":1106.67,"body":"complicated models, and say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1102.17,"endTime":1106.67,"body":"This is what the power is, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1106.67,"endTime":1111.26,"body":"are going to use the SEM"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1106.67,"endTime":1111.26,"body":"framework as a calculator to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1111.26,"endTime":1115.46,"body":"the power estimate for exactly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1111.26,"endTime":1115.46,"body":"what we want, not what G power"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1115.46,"endTime":1119.75,"body":"gives you. Not what colons table"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1115.46,"endTime":1119.75,"body":"says, which are brilliant,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1119.75,"endTime":1123.65,"body":"totally. And those are hugely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1119.75,"endTime":1123.65,"body":"advantageous, unless you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1123.65,"endTime":1125.87,"body":"doing any of the work that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1123.65,"endTime":1125.87,"body":"all are doing."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1127.28,"endTime":1130.37,"body":"Those are great for stuff"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1127.28,"endTime":1130.37,"body":"you don't do. Yeah, yeah. All"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1130.37,"endTime":1133.85,"body":"right. So to draw on the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1130.37,"endTime":1133.85,"body":"analogy, from regression, when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1133.85,"endTime":1137.57,"body":"we talk about fit in regression,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1133.85,"endTime":1137.57,"body":"and how successful a particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1137.57,"endTime":1140.93,"body":"regression model is, as a whole,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1137.57,"endTime":1140.93,"body":"the R squared is often our go to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1140.93,"endTime":1143.6,"body":"write a big R squared, we go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1140.93,"endTime":1143.6,"body":"yay, good for us. I don't know"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1143.6,"endTime":1145.85,"body":"which predictors are doing it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1143.6,"endTime":1145.85,"body":"But yeah, good for us. And a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1145.85,"endTime":1149.45,"body":"small r squared, and we are sad."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1145.85,"endTime":1149.45,"body":"And so the power for regression"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1149.48,"endTime":1154.4,"body":"is often treated as power of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1149.48,"endTime":1154.4,"body":"this whole rather than power of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1154.4,"endTime":1156.98,"body":"the different parts inside."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1154.4,"endTime":1156.98,"body":"Within structural equation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1156.98,"endTime":1159.59,"body":"modeling. We also assess the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1156.98,"endTime":1159.59,"body":"model as a whole, but we don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1159.59,"endTime":1163.1,"body":"use an r squared, we use Fit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1159.59,"endTime":1163.1,"body":"indices fit indices, like a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1163.1,"endTime":1166.28,"body":"comparative fit index, or a root"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1163.1,"endTime":1166.28,"body":"mean square error of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1166.28,"endTime":1169.82,"body":"approximation or Hakka model chi"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1166.28,"endTime":1169.82,"body":"square, right? There are many,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1169.82,"endTime":1172.88,"body":"many different ways of assessing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1169.82,"endTime":1172.88,"body":"fit of a structural equation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1172.88,"endTime":1176.42,"body":"model. And there's a lot of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1172.88,"endTime":1176.42,"body":"question about how one should"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1176.42,"endTime":1179.87,"body":"use those if one should use"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1176.42,"endTime":1179.87,"body":"those. Now, if I just asked a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1179.87,"endTime":1184.22,"body":"question about power at this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1179.87,"endTime":1184.22,"body":"omnibus level, one way to think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1184.22,"endTime":1188.78,"body":"about it is how many subjects"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1184.22,"endTime":1188.78,"body":"would I need to be able to say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1188.78,"endTime":1191.3,"body":"this is a good model? Right?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1188.78,"endTime":1191.3,"body":"That seems like a reasonable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1191.3,"endTime":1194.3,"body":"question because we all want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1191.3,"endTime":1194.3,"body":"good models. But the problem"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1194.3,"endTime":1197.6,"body":"with that generally speaking,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1194.3,"endTime":1197.6,"body":"the chi square is a funny index"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1197.6,"endTime":1200.27,"body":"in the sense that bigger values"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1197.6,"endTime":1200.27,"body":"of the chi square test to you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1200.3,"endTime":1203.24,"body":"that your model is doing worse,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1200.3,"endTime":1203.24,"body":"and smaller values of your chi"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1203.24,"endTime":1206.0,"body":"square tell you that your model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1203.24,"endTime":1206.0,"body":"is doing better. So if someone"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1206.0,"endTime":1208.85,"body":"used a chi square as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1206.0,"endTime":1208.85,"body":"characterization of fit of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1208.85,"endTime":1212.54,"body":"model as a whole, and said, Now,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1208.85,"endTime":1212.54,"body":"how can I use that in some sort"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1212.54,"endTime":1215.33,"body":"of a priori power analysis, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1212.54,"endTime":1215.33,"body":"answer I would have at the end"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1215.33,"endTime":1219.05,"body":"of the day is just get a really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1215.33,"endTime":1219.05,"body":"small sample, right, because if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1219.05,"endTime":1220.91,"body":"you get a really small sample,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1219.05,"endTime":1220.91,"body":"you will tend to get a really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1220.91,"endTime":1223.55,"body":"small chi square. And so you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1220.91,"endTime":1223.55,"body":"will tend to say you've got a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1223.55,"endTime":1226.37,"body":"great model. And that should"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1223.55,"endTime":1226.37,"body":"bother you on some level,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1227.0,"endTime":1230.87,"body":"deeply. There's sort of a logic"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1227.0,"endTime":1230.87,"body":"problem that we have here with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1230.87,"endTime":1234.41,"body":"the chi square. And instead,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1230.87,"endTime":1234.41,"body":"what we do is we kind of flip"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1234.41,"endTime":1238.64,"body":"the logic from the chi square,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1234.41,"endTime":1238.64,"body":"the index that is used in part"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1238.64,"endTime":1241.49,"body":"of this process Most commonly,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1238.64,"endTime":1241.49,"body":"and it absolutely doesn't have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1241.49,"endTime":1243.86,"body":"to be the one that's used is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1241.49,"endTime":1243.86,"body":"root mean square error of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1243.86,"endTime":1246.89,"body":"approximation. The root mean"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1243.86,"endTime":1246.89,"body":"square error of approximation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1246.89,"endTime":1250.25,"body":"has a known distribution. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1246.89,"endTime":1250.25,"body":"here's the logic of power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1250.25,"endTime":1253.19,"body":"analysis at the omnibus level"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1250.25,"endTime":1253.19,"body":"using the root mean square error"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1253.19,"endTime":1257.09,"body":"of approximation. Let's imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1253.19,"endTime":1257.09,"body":"that you set for yourself some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1257.09,"endTime":1261.98,"body":"standard that you consider to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1257.09,"endTime":1261.98,"body":"the barrier between good and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1261.98,"endTime":1265.16,"body":"evil, right, bad fit, good fit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1261.98,"endTime":1265.16,"body":"truth."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1265.4,"endTime":1268.25,"body":"What it means is Old"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1265.4,"endTime":1268.25,"body":"Testament fire and brimstone"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1268.25,"endTime":1271.97,"body":"coming down from the sky, human"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1268.25,"endTime":1271.97,"body":"sacrifice dogs and cats living"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1271.97,"endTime":1273.98,"body":"together enough, I get the"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1271.97,"endTime":1273.98,"body":"point."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1274.04,"endTime":1275.9,"body":"What do you use? Patrick?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1274.04,"endTime":1275.9,"body":"What do you think of is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1275.9,"endTime":1277.55,"body":"cutoff for RMSEA. As"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1277.58,"endTime":1281.57,"body":"I wrote a paper that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1277.58,"endTime":1281.57,"body":"shows there is no universal cut"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1281.57,"endTime":1286.34,"body":"point, the impact on the field"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1281.57,"endTime":1286.34,"body":"was zero. So I'm just going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1286.34,"endTime":1288.71,"body":"cross my arms and sit here"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1286.34,"endTime":1288.71,"body":"grumbling,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1289.29,"endTime":1292.41,"body":"someone might say, oh,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1289.29,"endTime":1292.41,"body":"we'd like to use point o five as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1292.41,"endTime":1295.11,"body":"the cutoff for the root mean"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1292.41,"endTime":1295.11,"body":"square error of approximation,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1295.11,"endTime":1299.1,"body":"or we'd like to use point o six."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1295.11,"endTime":1299.1,"body":"But the thing is, you have to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1299.1,"endTime":1302.34,"body":"pick some value in this world."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1299.1,"endTime":1302.34,"body":"And what Patrick said about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1302.43,"endTime":1305.1,"body":"maybe there isn't a good value,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1302.43,"endTime":1305.1,"body":"I think, is part of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1305.1,"endTime":1307.95,"body":"challenge with this. But imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1305.1,"endTime":1307.95,"body":"you did lock in, let's say you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1307.95,"endTime":1311.7,"body":"locked in and said point o five."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1307.95,"endTime":1311.7,"body":"So what you do is you imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1311.7,"endTime":1317.7,"body":"what your true models RMSEA is,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1311.7,"endTime":1317.7,"body":"how on earth would I know that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1317.7,"endTime":1321.36,"body":"true? RMSEA for my model, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1317.7,"endTime":1321.36,"body":"first thing I say is exactly."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1321.39,"endTime":1323.22,"body":"But then the second thing I say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1321.39,"endTime":1323.22,"body":"is that's not really different"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1323.22,"endTime":1326.46,"body":"from other power analyses, where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1323.22,"endTime":1326.46,"body":"you have to suppose something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1326.46,"endTime":1328.98,"body":"about what's true in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1326.46,"endTime":1328.98,"body":"population. So we're not really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1328.98,"endTime":1330.72,"body":"being held to a different"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1328.98,"endTime":1330.72,"body":"standard here. It's just a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1330.72,"endTime":1334.5,"body":"different numerical description."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1330.72,"endTime":1334.5,"body":"And so imagine that you say, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1334.5,"endTime":1337.71,"body":"believe that my model is perfect"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1334.5,"endTime":1337.71,"body":"in the population, I say, okay,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1337.71,"endTime":1340.77,"body":"great. It's not but okay, good"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1337.71,"endTime":1340.77,"body":"for you. If you were to take"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1340.77,"endTime":1345.33,"body":"samples of size, let's say 50."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1340.77,"endTime":1345.33,"body":"And do studies over and over and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1345.33,"endTime":1348.54,"body":"over, you will get a confidence"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1345.33,"endTime":1348.54,"body":"interval around your samples,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1348.57,"endTime":1351.3,"body":"root mean square error of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1348.57,"endTime":1351.3,"body":"approximation. And when you have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1351.3,"endTime":1353.34,"body":"a smaller sample size, that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1351.3,"endTime":1353.34,"body":"confidence interval would tend"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1353.34,"endTime":1355.95,"body":"to be much wider. And when you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1353.34,"endTime":1355.95,"body":"have a bigger sample size, that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1355.95,"endTime":1358.86,"body":"confidence interval would come"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1355.95,"endTime":1358.86,"body":"in and be tighter. The"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1358.86,"endTime":1362.88,"body":"operational question is, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1358.86,"endTime":1362.88,"body":"sample size would you need? So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1362.88,"endTime":1366.48,"body":"that let's say 80% of the time"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1362.88,"endTime":1366.48,"body":"your confidence interval is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1366.48,"endTime":1370.5,"body":"entirely below, wherever you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1366.48,"endTime":1370.5,"body":"have set that threshold, like an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1370.5,"endTime":1373.83,"body":"RMSEA of point oh, five. So if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1370.5,"endTime":1373.83,"body":"you say I want 80% power? The"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1373.83,"endTime":1377.52,"body":"answer is what sample size would"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1373.83,"endTime":1377.52,"body":"you need to shrink your RMSEA"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1377.52,"endTime":1380.76,"body":"confidence interval down so that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1377.52,"endTime":1380.76,"body":"80% of the time it is under that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1380.76,"endTime":1384.18,"body":"threshold? And essentially, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1380.76,"endTime":1384.18,"body":"are rejecting badness of fit in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1384.18,"endTime":1387.03,"body":"favor of good fit. That's the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1384.18,"endTime":1387.03,"body":"logic of it. There's the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1387.03,"endTime":1390.18,"body":"realistic part where you say,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1387.03,"endTime":1390.18,"body":"but whose model really has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1390.18,"endTime":1393.66,"body":"perfect fit whose model has an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1390.18,"endTime":1393.66,"body":"RMSEA of zero and truth? And the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1393.66,"endTime":1396.96,"body":"answer is probably nobody. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1393.66,"endTime":1396.96,"body":"so I say well inject a little"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1396.96,"endTime":1400.53,"body":"bit of badness. But imagine that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1396.96,"endTime":1400.53,"body":"you're RMSEA. And truth is point"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1400.53,"endTime":1403.68,"body":"O two little bit of badness if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1400.53,"endTime":1403.68,"body":"it kind of realistic, maybe and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1403.68,"endTime":1407.58,"body":"now the question is what sample"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1403.68,"endTime":1407.58,"body":"size would you need to shrink"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1407.58,"endTime":1410.85,"body":"your confidence intervals down"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1407.58,"endTime":1410.85,"body":"so that 80% of the time they are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1410.85,"endTime":1413.28,"body":"below whatever threshold you've"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1410.85,"endTime":1413.28,"body":"set for yourself, like point oh"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1413.28,"endTime":1417.15,"body":"five? Well, it's going to take a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1413.28,"endTime":1417.15,"body":"bigger sample size now. Because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1417.18,"endTime":1420.09,"body":"truth isn't sitting down at zero"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1417.18,"endTime":1420.09,"body":"truth is sitting up at point O"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1420.09,"endTime":1423.33,"body":"two. And so oh my gosh, I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1420.09,"endTime":1423.33,"body":"gonna need a bigger sample size"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1423.33,"endTime":1425.91,"body":"so that I'm under that point oh,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1423.33,"endTime":1425.91,"body":"five 80% of the time. That's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1425.91,"endTime":1428.79,"body":"what the point oh two, what if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1425.91,"endTime":1428.79,"body":"your model fit is point oh,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1428.79,"endTime":1432.6,"body":"four, right. And RMSEA of point"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1428.79,"endTime":1432.6,"body":"oh four, in truth characterizes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1432.6,"endTime":1435.45,"body":"the fit of your model in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1432.6,"endTime":1435.45,"body":"population. Which by the way, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1435.45,"endTime":1438.6,"body":"might be pretty darn happy with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1435.45,"endTime":1438.6,"body":"right, we can question whether"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1438.6,"endTime":1441.99,"body":"or not the RMSEA is the be all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1438.6,"endTime":1441.99,"body":"end all characterization of fit."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1442.02,"endTime":1444.72,"body":"But if someone told me, frankly,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1442.02,"endTime":1444.72,"body":"at an RMSE of point oh four, I'd"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1444.72,"endTime":1446.79,"body":"be pretty happy. Well imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1444.72,"endTime":1446.79,"body":"that's the truth in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1446.79,"endTime":1450.75,"body":"population. What sample size are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1446.79,"endTime":1450.75,"body":"you going to need so that your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1450.75,"endTime":1456.66,"body":"confidence intervals around your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1450.75,"endTime":1456.66,"body":"samples? RMSEA are below that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1456.66,"endTime":1459.81,"body":"threshold of point o five 80% of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1456.66,"endTime":1459.81,"body":"the time, and the answer is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1459.81,"endTime":1462.99,"body":"probably you're going to need a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1459.81,"endTime":1462.99,"body":"pretty darn big sample size."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1463.26,"endTime":1467.16,"body":"Because your truth of point of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1463.26,"endTime":1467.16,"body":"four is standing right next to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1467.19,"endTime":1469.83,"body":"that threshold of point oh five,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1467.19,"endTime":1469.83,"body":"you're gonna need a big old"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1469.83,"endTime":1472.5,"body":"sample size to get a tight"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1469.83,"endTime":1472.5,"body":"confidence interval around that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1472.5,"endTime":1476.97,"body":"RMSEA. This is the logic of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1472.5,"endTime":1476.97,"body":"power analysis or sample size"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1476.97,"endTime":1481.53,"body":"determination when you're using"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1476.97,"endTime":1481.53,"body":"a fit index like the RMSEA. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1481.53,"endTime":1483.81,"body":"there are a lot of challenges"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1481.53,"endTime":1483.81,"body":"associated with this."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1483.84,"endTime":1486.72,"body":"We'll put this on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1483.84,"endTime":1486.72,"body":"show notes but McCallum Brown"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1486.72,"endTime":1490.68,"body":"and Sugawara have a very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1486.72,"endTime":1490.68,"body":"important paper in sight methods"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1490.68,"endTime":1495.03,"body":"on all of this in 1997. What"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1490.68,"endTime":1495.03,"body":"they did and what Greg did here"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1495.03,"endTime":1498.6,"body":"in the telling of the story,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1495.03,"endTime":1498.6,"body":"we're actually turning two knobs"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1498.6,"endTime":1505.11,"body":"at once in what we Think about."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1498.6,"endTime":1505.11,"body":"The first one is the exact fit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1505.11,"endTime":1510.27,"body":"versus close fit, right. So the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1505.11,"endTime":1510.27,"body":"chi square in our usual way is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1510.27,"endTime":1514.71,"body":"the null hypothesis is sigma"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1510.27,"endTime":1514.71,"body":"equals sigma theta. That is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1514.74,"endTime":1518.43,"body":"population covariance matrix is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1514.74,"endTime":1518.43,"body":"equal to the model implied"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1518.43,"endTime":1522.87,"body":"covariance matrix. And that is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1518.43,"endTime":1522.87,"body":"the equivalent of mu one equals"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1522.87,"endTime":1526.59,"body":"mu two. Now, as Greg described,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1522.87,"endTime":1526.59,"body":"and I won't reiterate, we come"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1526.59,"endTime":1531.21,"body":"to a different conclusion. On"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1526.59,"endTime":1531.21,"body":"that note, the t test is saying"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1531.21,"endTime":1535.5,"body":"your intervention was not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1531.21,"endTime":1535.5,"body":"effective. And you have to bring"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1535.5,"endTime":1540.27,"body":"empirical data to demonstrate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1535.5,"endTime":1540.27,"body":"that it was the Nolan the SEM is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1540.27,"endTime":1544.05,"body":"saying your model is correctly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1540.27,"endTime":1544.05,"body":"specified. And you have to bring"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1544.05,"endTime":1548.04,"body":"empirical information to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1544.05,"endTime":1548.04,"body":"demonstrate that it is not Karl"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1548.04,"endTime":1552.45,"body":"Popper is over there, mixing"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1548.04,"endTime":1552.45,"body":"drinks at this point shaking his"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1552.45,"endTime":1557.19,"body":"jaw, let's head out that little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1552.45,"endTime":1557.19,"body":"intellectual Judo that we did."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1557.43,"endTime":1560.64,"body":"But what we're doing is we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1557.43,"endTime":1560.64,"body":"thinking about one, we've got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1560.64,"endTime":1565.14,"body":"this omnibus test of power for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1560.64,"endTime":1565.14,"body":"the model as a whole. And to do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1565.14,"endTime":1569.1,"body":"we do close fit or exact fit."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1565.14,"endTime":1569.1,"body":"All right, and and what McCallum"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1569.1,"endTime":1573.21,"body":"argues and just as Greg said,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1569.1,"endTime":1573.21,"body":"rarely, if ever, does a model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1573.21,"endTime":1577.02,"body":"fit exactly in the population."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1573.21,"endTime":1577.02,"body":"And so we're going to be, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1577.02,"endTime":1578.79,"body":"are we going to give, we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1577.02,"endTime":1578.79,"body":"gonna give a little bit of oh"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1578.79,"endTime":1581.55,"body":"two, we're gonna give a little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1578.79,"endTime":1581.55,"body":"bit of both three. But let's go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1581.55,"endTime":1585.9,"body":"back to the R squared and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1581.55,"endTime":1585.9,"body":"regression situation, where we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1585.9,"endTime":1588.99,"body":"said, oh, you have some power to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1585.9,"endTime":1588.99,"body":"detect a given r squared. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1588.99,"endTime":1591.48,"body":"that's for the model as a whole,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1588.99,"endTime":1591.48,"body":"you could have all of your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1591.48,"endTime":1594.33,"body":"predictors be significant, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1591.48,"endTime":1594.33,"body":"could have one predictor be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1594.33,"endTime":1597.75,"body":"significant. Indeed, you could"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1594.33,"endTime":1597.75,"body":"align things in a way where none"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1597.75,"endTime":1600.18,"body":"of your predictors are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1597.75,"endTime":1600.18,"body":"significant, but you still have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1600.18,"endTime":1603.45,"body":"an r square to point to to Yep."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1600.18,"endTime":1603.45,"body":"And you kind of sigh and say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1603.45,"endTime":1610.35,"body":"well, crap, we are evaluating"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1603.45,"endTime":1610.35,"body":"the SEM as a holistic entity. If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1610.35,"endTime":1613.2,"body":"we have complete data, we have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1610.35,"endTime":1613.2,"body":"sample covariance matrix, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1613.2,"endTime":1616.59,"body":"have a model implied covariance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1613.2,"endTime":1616.59,"body":"matrix that the model says this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1616.59,"endTime":1620.52,"body":"holds given the structure you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1616.59,"endTime":1620.52,"body":"gave me, we subtract those two,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1620.7,"endTime":1624.12,"body":"and we get a matrix of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1620.7,"endTime":1624.12,"body":"residuals. What we're doing in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1624.12,"endTime":1629.61,"body":"the test of exact fit is, are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1624.12,"endTime":1629.61,"body":"those residuals taken jointly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1630.03,"endTime":1633.54,"body":"larger than we would expect by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1630.03,"endTime":1633.54,"body":"chance alone under the null"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1633.54,"endTime":1639.06,"body":"hypothesis? Well, we could have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1633.54,"endTime":1639.06,"body":"one bloody honkin, residual, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1639.06,"endTime":1642.63,"body":"all the rest are near zero, or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1639.06,"endTime":1642.63,"body":"we could just have drips and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1642.63,"endTime":1646.02,"body":"drabs, right? The Irish"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1642.63,"endTime":1646.02,"body":"loadings. Remember Oh, Curran,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1646.02,"endTime":1651.72,"body":"O'Shaughnessy? Oh, 703, right."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1646.02,"endTime":1651.72,"body":"If you're doing a CFA, we don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1651.72,"endTime":1656.28,"body":"believe why to only loads on 801"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1651.72,"endTime":1656.28,"body":"and done more than any other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1656.28,"endTime":1660.27,"body":"factors. It may have a cross"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1656.28,"endTime":1660.27,"body":"loading of O one or O two or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1660.27,"endTime":1665.01,"body":"three, but we're fixing those to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1660.27,"endTime":1665.01,"body":"be zero. Well, that omnibus test"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1665.01,"endTime":1670.47,"body":"is just like the r squared, all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1665.01,"endTime":1670.47,"body":"we can say is somewhere within"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1670.47,"endTime":1675.75,"body":"the confines of the model, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1670.47,"endTime":1675.75,"body":"have a 78% chance of detecting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1675.75,"endTime":1679.35,"body":"and misspecification. I look at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1675.75,"endTime":1679.35,"body":"that and think, okay, in one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1679.35,"endTime":1682.8,"body":"way, super exciting. In another"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1679.35,"endTime":1682.8,"body":"way, that's not what we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1682.8,"endTime":1685.47,"body":"really interested in. We're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1682.8,"endTime":1685.47,"body":"interested in a treatment"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1685.47,"endTime":1688.29,"body":"effect. We're interested in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1685.47,"endTime":1688.29,"body":"non linearity, we're interested"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1688.44,"endTime":1692.88,"body":"in the covariance between two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1688.44,"endTime":1692.88,"body":"growth factors, those omnibus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1692.88,"endTime":1696.48,"body":"tests don't give us that and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1692.88,"endTime":1696.48,"body":"other poke in the eye is is to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1696.48,"endTime":1701.22,"body":"do the entire RMSEA omnibus"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1696.48,"endTime":1701.22,"body":"test, as you already alluded to,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1701.31,"endTime":1705.0,"body":"is we have to pick a value that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1701.31,"endTime":1705.0,"body":"we believe is indicative of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1705.0,"endTime":1709.62,"body":"close fit and RMSEA votes, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1705.0,"endTime":1709.62,"body":"are oh three or Oh 405, there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1709.62,"endTime":1712.17,"body":"been a fair amount of work that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1709.62,"endTime":1712.17,"body":"shows we can't do that, because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1712.17,"endTime":1715.59,"body":"it varies over degrees of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1712.17,"endTime":1715.59,"body":"freedom and model complexity and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1715.62,"endTime":1720.18,"body":"determinacy and all of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1715.62,"endTime":1720.18,"body":"things. So enter stage left one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1720.18,"endTime":1723.63,"body":"of my heroes in the field,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1720.18,"endTime":1723.63,"body":"Albert Centura. I think Albert"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1723.63,"endTime":1728.13,"body":"shutaura is one of the most"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1723.63,"endTime":1728.13,"body":"important contributors to SEM."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1728.37,"endTime":1731.7,"body":"If you use robust maximum"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1728.37,"endTime":1731.7,"body":"likelihood, you can thank"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1731.7,"endTime":1736.59,"body":"Albert, if you use adjusted chi"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1731.7,"endTime":1736.59,"body":"squared, a robust chi square you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1736.59,"endTime":1741.09,"body":"can think Albert, he has made"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1736.59,"endTime":1741.09,"body":"unbelievable contributions to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1741.09,"endTime":1745.11,"body":"the field. One is he said, Wait"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1741.09,"endTime":1745.11,"body":"a minute. under the null"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1745.11,"endTime":1748.86,"body":"hypothesis, our test statistic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1745.11,"endTime":1748.86,"body":"follows a central chi square"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1748.89,"endTime":1753.36,"body":"under the alternative, which has"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1748.89,"endTime":1753.36,"body":"some misspecification. In it, it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1753.36,"endTime":1758.04,"body":"follows a noncentral chi square"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1753.36,"endTime":1758.04,"body":"that Nan centrality parameter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1758.04,"endTime":1763.08,"body":"represents the degree of misfit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1758.04,"endTime":1763.08,"body":"from that misspecification"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1763.11,"endTime":1766.89,"body":"damned if I can't turn that into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1763.11,"endTime":1766.89,"body":"a power estimate. And that's the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1766.89,"endTime":1768.3,"body":"Satorious Soros method,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1768.32,"endTime":1772.43,"body":"right? If we think about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1768.32,"endTime":1772.43,"body":"pivoting, then from power, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1772.43,"endTime":1776.66,"body":"sample size for the model as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1772.43,"endTime":1776.66,"body":"whole to power and sample size"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1776.66,"endTime":1780.62,"body":"for the parameters, where our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1776.66,"endTime":1780.62,"body":"hypotheses are actually residing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1780.62,"endTime":1784.31,"body":"within a model, he laid the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1780.62,"endTime":1784.31,"body":"groundwork for all of that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1784.34,"endTime":1786.95,"body":"it's very similar to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1784.34,"endTime":1786.95,"body":"what we do when we compare"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1786.95,"endTime":1790.85,"body":"nested models within the sample."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1786.95,"endTime":1790.85,"body":"But what we're doing using the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.85,"endTime":1794.0,"body":"Satorious RS method is we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.85,"endTime":1794.0,"body":"doing that at the level of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1794.0,"endTime":1798.44,"body":"population. Remember that in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1794.0,"endTime":1798.44,"body":"likelihood ratio test for nested"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1798.44,"endTime":1802.46,"body":"models, we have Model A ie that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1798.44,"endTime":1802.46,"body":"has some parameterization. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1802.46,"endTime":1806.21,"body":"have Model B, where we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1802.46,"endTime":1806.21,"body":"impose restrictions on Model A"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1806.21,"endTime":1809.18,"body":"to get to model B. So they're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1806.21,"endTime":1809.18,"body":"nested, and they're each going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1809.18,"endTime":1811.82,"body":"to have their own chi square, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1809.18,"endTime":1811.82,"body":"take the difference between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1811.82,"endTime":1815.51,"body":"them, and we can test is there a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1811.82,"endTime":1815.51,"body":"significant difference in model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1815.51,"endTime":1818.9,"body":"fit? Well, what Albert did is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1815.51,"endTime":1818.9,"body":"said, look, go up to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1818.9,"endTime":1823.04,"body":"whiteboard and draw out whatever"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1818.9,"endTime":1823.04,"body":"model you have. Now we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1823.04,"endTime":1827.33,"body":"starting to talk about the power"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1823.04,"endTime":1827.33,"body":"of what draw a growth model,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1827.36,"endTime":1832.25,"body":"draw a path model, draw CFA go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1827.36,"endTime":1832.25,"body":"nuts, man, draw whatever you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1832.25,"endTime":1836.66,"body":"want on that board, declare that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1832.25,"endTime":1836.66,"body":"to be your population model."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1836.69,"endTime":1838.67,"body":"Now, this is a little tricky,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1836.69,"endTime":1838.67,"body":"because you're gonna have to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1838.67,"endTime":1841.82,"body":"give me every parameter value."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1838.67,"endTime":1841.82,"body":"Yeah, your loadings are point"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1841.82,"endTime":1844.79,"body":"seven, your regression"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1841.82,"endTime":1844.79,"body":"coefficient is point five, your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1844.79,"endTime":1847.49,"body":"correlations are point three."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1844.79,"endTime":1847.49,"body":"Right now, this isn't no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1847.49,"endTime":1850.01,"body":"different than what we do in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1847.49,"endTime":1850.01,"body":"other kinds of things. When we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1850.01,"endTime":1854.27,"body":"say I have an effect size of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1850.01,"endTime":1854.27,"body":"point two, you're implicitly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1854.27,"endTime":1857.39,"body":"saying these are the values in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1854.27,"endTime":1857.39,"body":"the population. It's just we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1857.39,"endTime":1860.78,"body":"up at the whiteboard now. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1857.39,"endTime":1860.78,"body":"now it's power analysis on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1860.78,"endTime":1864.38,"body":"spring break, you got to write"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1860.78,"endTime":1864.38,"body":"in communality estimates, factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1864.38,"endTime":1867.17,"body":"loadings, all of these things,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1864.38,"endTime":1867.17,"body":"you're gonna get a model implied"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1867.17,"endTime":1869.99,"body":"covariance matrix and mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1867.17,"endTime":1869.99,"body":"vector that correspond to that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1869.99,"endTime":1875.06,"body":"model. Now, for your sample"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1869.99,"endTime":1875.06,"body":"planning, go up and say, I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1875.06,"endTime":1879.41,"body":"going to remove these three"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1875.06,"endTime":1879.41,"body":"parameters. And I'm going to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1879.44,"endTime":1883.07,"body":"the covariance matrix and mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1879.44,"endTime":1883.07,"body":"vector that that model implies."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1883.16,"endTime":1885.95,"body":"Now keep in mind, we're still at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1883.16,"endTime":1885.95,"body":"the level of the population, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1885.95,"endTime":1888.2,"body":"don't have any sample data."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1885.95,"endTime":1888.2,"body":"That's right. But we have the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1888.2,"endTime":1891.11,"body":"covariance matrix of your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1888.2,"endTime":1891.11,"body":"population model, we have the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1891.11,"endTime":1894.77,"body":"covariance matrix of A"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1891.11,"endTime":1894.77,"body":"misspecified model that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1894.77,"endTime":1900.35,"body":"defined by a very specific Miss"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1894.77,"endTime":1900.35,"body":"specification, and he showed how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1900.35,"endTime":1904.28,"body":"you can use the difference in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1900.35,"endTime":1904.28,"body":"those chi squares to calculate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1904.31,"endTime":1908.72,"body":"what is the probability you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1904.31,"endTime":1908.72,"body":"would detect that Miss"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1908.72,"endTime":1912.29,"body":"specification, given the other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1908.72,"endTime":1912.29,"body":"characteristics of your model,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1912.32,"endTime":1912.62,"body":"it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1912.62,"endTime":1915.95,"body":"freaking brilliant, is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1912.62,"endTime":1915.95,"body":"what it is, you can do some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1915.95,"endTime":1919.31,"body":"version of it mathematically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1915.95,"endTime":1919.31,"body":"without running models, you can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1919.31,"endTime":1922.61,"body":"do it with software by running"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1919.31,"endTime":1922.61,"body":"models, and just setting"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1922.61,"endTime":1925.46,"body":"parameter values, it translates"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1922.61,"endTime":1925.46,"body":"perfectly into the non"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1925.46,"endTime":1928.1,"body":"centrality stuff that Patrick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1925.46,"endTime":1928.1,"body":"and I talked about previously."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1928.28,"endTime":1932.33,"body":"Because if you specify a proper"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1928.28,"endTime":1932.33,"body":"population model, and then you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1932.33,"endTime":1937.19,"body":"take out a parameter and run the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1932.33,"endTime":1937.19,"body":"analysis on that population, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1937.19,"endTime":1940.67,"body":"will get an estimate of the non"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1937.19,"endTime":1940.67,"body":"centrality associated with that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1940.67,"endTime":1943.67,"body":"misspecification given a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1940.67,"endTime":1943.67,"body":"particular sample size, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1943.67,"endTime":1946.55,"body":"given the context of the rest of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1943.67,"endTime":1946.55,"body":"the parameters of the model that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1946.55,"endTime":1950.63,"body":"translates just boom, right into"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1946.55,"endTime":1950.63,"body":"power into sample size stuff."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1950.66,"endTime":1953.36,"body":"And he laid the groundwork for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1950.66,"endTime":1953.36,"body":"everything really,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1953.39,"endTime":1957.38,"body":"because it's embedded"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1953.39,"endTime":1957.38,"body":"within the SEM. And all of our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1957.38,"endTime":1961.97,"body":"traditional friends from high"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1957.38,"endTime":1961.97,"body":"school are members of the SEM,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1962.0,"endTime":1964.97,"body":"right, we can use this approach"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1962.0,"endTime":1964.97,"body":"for a t test or an ANOVA. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1964.97,"endTime":1967.7,"body":"uncover a multiple regression or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1964.97,"endTime":1967.7,"body":"a multiple regression with an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1967.7,"endTime":1972.62,"body":"interaction. If you want to know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1967.7,"endTime":1972.62,"body":"what is the power to detect a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1972.62,"endTime":1976.85,"body":"three way interaction in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1972.62,"endTime":1976.85,"body":"multiple regression, you can do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1976.85,"endTime":1981.26,"body":"it using this framework, but we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1976.85,"endTime":1981.26,"body":"can then generalize it to all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1981.26,"endTime":1985.34,"body":"the other things that we can do."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1981.26,"endTime":1985.34,"body":"And so way back in the day,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1985.34,"endTime":1990.89,"body":"moutain, and I have a paper back"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1985.34,"endTime":1990.89,"body":"in 97, in Psych methods, where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1990.89,"endTime":1996.74,"body":"we use this method in a multiple"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1990.89,"endTime":1996.74,"body":"group latent growth curve model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1996.74,"endTime":2000.97,"body":"to detect a treatment effect."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1996.74,"endTime":2000.97,"body":"And I wrote a little do loop,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2001.0,"endTime":2003.94,"body":"I'm not talking like some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2001.0,"endTime":2003.94,"body":"massive things, I wrote a little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2003.94,"endTime":2007.9,"body":"doom loop in SAS, I just went"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2003.94,"endTime":2007.9,"body":"through sample size one at a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2007.9,"endTime":2012.28,"body":"time, up, up, up, up, up up from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2007.9,"endTime":2012.28,"body":"one to 1000. And I plotted out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2012.28,"endTime":2018.07,"body":"power curves, you can build"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2012.28,"endTime":2018.07,"body":"power curves across what ever"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2018.07,"endTime":2022.18,"body":"samples you want, whatever"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2018.07,"endTime":2022.18,"body":"effect sizes you want. And this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2022.18,"endTime":2026.32,"body":"is the Coors Light Green Day"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2022.18,"endTime":2026.32,"body":"garage. You can't say, well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2026.32,"endTime":2030.79,"body":"Cohen, ADA doesn't have a table"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2026.32,"endTime":2030.79,"body":"for a bivariate growth model,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2030.79,"endTime":2034.75,"body":"where my hypothesis is about the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2030.79,"endTime":2034.75,"body":"correlation between the two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2034.75,"endTime":2038.89,"body":"growth factors go into the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2034.75,"endTime":2038.89,"body":"garage, write a couple of do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2038.89,"endTime":2041.8,"body":"loops, I'm not exaggerating,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2038.89,"endTime":2041.8,"body":"because we're not doing Monte"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2041.8,"endTime":2045.76,"body":"Carlo simulation. This is all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2041.8,"endTime":2045.76,"body":"analytic. I just referenced a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2045.76,"endTime":2049.96,"body":"noncentral chi square given a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2045.76,"endTime":2049.96,"body":"degree of freedom sample size"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2049.96,"endTime":2055.12,"body":"and non centrality parameter and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2049.96,"endTime":2055.12,"body":"plotted the function, and that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2055.12,"endTime":2059.71,"body":"your power. So when the grant"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2055.12,"endTime":2059.71,"body":"reviewer says, Well, you need to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2059.71,"endTime":2064.84,"body":"give power for your bivariate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2059.71,"endTime":2064.84,"body":"growth model. You say here is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2064.84,"endTime":2069.31,"body":"the power that I would achieve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2064.84,"endTime":2069.31,"body":"with this sample size to detect"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2069.37,"endTime":2073.81,"body":"a covariance between the growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2069.37,"endTime":2073.81,"body":"factors this large or larger,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2073.84,"endTime":2075.88,"body":"there you go, man, there's your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2073.84,"endTime":2075.88,"body":"power."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2075.91,"endTime":2080.62,"body":"I remember reading your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2075.91,"endTime":2080.62,"body":"1997 paper pretty close to 1997."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2080.62,"endTime":2084.61,"body":"Honestly, I remember also"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2080.62,"endTime":2084.61,"body":"thinking Dang, that's kind of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2084.61,"endTime":2087.88,"body":"hard to do. You know, if I were"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2084.61,"endTime":2087.88,"body":"an applied person, am I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2087.88,"endTime":2091.15,"body":"literally going to write a do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2087.88,"endTime":2091.15,"body":"loop to be able to grind through"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2091.15,"endTime":2093.58,"body":"this? I certainly could. And I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2091.15,"endTime":2093.58,"body":"appreciate you know, when you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2093.58,"endTime":2096.19,"body":"say yeah, it only took a few"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2093.58,"endTime":2096.19,"body":"lines to be able to do but for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2096.19,"endTime":2100.27,"body":"some people that might still be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2096.19,"endTime":2100.27,"body":"a big ask a lot of the Torah And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2100.27,"endTime":2103.96,"body":"Soros things can be done with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2100.27,"endTime":2103.96,"body":"the loops that you talked about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2103.99,"endTime":2107.02,"body":"where you try different sample"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2103.99,"endTime":2107.02,"body":"sizes, it can be done using the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2107.02,"endTime":2110.92,"body":"mathematics of power analysis or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2107.02,"endTime":2110.92,"body":"and this, I think is where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2110.92,"endTime":2113.59,"body":"things have started to go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2110.92,"endTime":2113.59,"body":"toward, we can hand everything"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2113.59,"endTime":2118.18,"body":"over to simulation techniques."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2113.59,"endTime":2118.18,"body":"When you do the loops that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2118.18,"endTime":2122.14,"body":"are talking about, or when you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2118.18,"endTime":2122.14,"body":"do the stuff that's the Torah"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2122.26,"endTime":2125.92,"body":"and Soros have come up with the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2122.26,"endTime":2125.92,"body":"mathematics for, you actually"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2125.92,"endTime":2130.03,"body":"have to specify the entire"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2125.92,"endTime":2130.03,"body":"variance covariance matrix. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2130.03,"endTime":2133.3,"body":"if I do that, what am I assuming"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2130.03,"endTime":2133.3,"body":"I'm assuming a lot about the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2133.3,"endTime":2136.0,"body":"actual data that give rise to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2133.3,"endTime":2136.0,"body":"that I'm assuming that all the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2136.0,"endTime":2139.06,"body":"cases or there might be making"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2136.0,"endTime":2139.06,"body":"some distributional assumptions,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2139.06,"endTime":2141.85,"body":"all of that it's a bit of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2139.06,"endTime":2141.85,"body":"leap, maybe to think that you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2141.85,"endTime":2145.09,"body":"holding the population"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2141.85,"endTime":2145.09,"body":"covariance matrix in your hand,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2145.15,"endTime":2148.09,"body":"even if we grant that you got"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2145.15,"endTime":2148.09,"body":"all the relations in the model,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2148.09,"endTime":2150.61,"body":"right? There are still issues"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2148.09,"endTime":2150.61,"body":"about the data that we're kind"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2150.61,"endTime":2151.39,"body":"of sweeping away,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2151.42,"endTime":2154.48,"body":"you were exactly right."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2151.42,"endTime":2154.48,"body":"This is an asymptotic method"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2154.51,"endTime":2157.48,"body":"based on a mean vector and a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2154.51,"endTime":2157.48,"body":"covariance matrix. That means"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2157.48,"endTime":2160.15,"body":"you have an infinite sample"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2157.48,"endTime":2160.15,"body":"size, you have continuity,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2160.27,"endTime":2164.92,"body":"independence, normality,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2160.27,"endTime":2164.92,"body":"linearity, complete data, stop"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2164.92,"endTime":2168.79,"body":"me when I've hit something that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2164.92,"endTime":2168.79,"body":"might be in your own study. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2168.79,"endTime":2173.53,"body":"what we do is we say, well, wait"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2168.79,"endTime":2173.53,"body":"a minute, all of us either have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2173.53,"endTime":2178.81,"body":"been in a class or teaching a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2173.53,"endTime":2178.81,"body":"class where we talk about if you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2178.81,"endTime":2182.62,"body":"were to sample and fit your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2178.81,"endTime":2182.62,"body":"model an infinite number of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2182.62,"endTime":2185.74,"body":"times, and gather all the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2182.62,"endTime":2185.74,"body":"parameters together, we're gonna"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2185.74,"endTime":2188.95,"body":"say, oh, wait a minute, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2185.74,"endTime":2188.95,"body":"actually could do that and see"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2188.95,"endTime":2193.51,"body":"what proportion I would say was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2188.95,"endTime":2193.51,"body":"significant. And that's power."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.54,"endTime":2195.97,"body":"So let's give an example."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.54,"endTime":2195.97,"body":"What I want to make clear from"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2195.97,"endTime":2199.96,"body":"the start is that we could pick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2195.97,"endTime":2199.96,"body":"any kind of model as an example"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2199.99,"endTime":2204.16,"body":"from something that is as simple"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2199.99,"endTime":2204.16,"body":"as the model equivalent of a two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2204.16,"endTime":2208.81,"body":"sample T test to a multiple"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2204.16,"endTime":2208.81,"body":"regression with three predictors"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2208.84,"endTime":2212.32,"body":"to a latent growth curve model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2208.84,"endTime":2212.32,"body":"with structured residuals. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2212.32,"endTime":2215.26,"body":"what we're about to talk about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2212.32,"endTime":2215.26,"body":"generalizes, to all of those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2215.26,"endTime":2218.23,"body":"kinds of things. But let's still"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2215.26,"endTime":2218.23,"body":"pick a pretty simple example,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2218.26,"endTime":2222.04,"body":"let me pick an example where I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2218.26,"endTime":2222.04,"body":"have a latent variable path"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2222.04,"endTime":2224.89,"body":"model. And in my latent variable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2222.04,"endTime":2224.89,"body":"path model, I have three"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2224.89,"endTime":2229.39,"body":"factors, I am just going to call"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2224.89,"endTime":2229.39,"body":"them for simplicity, F one, F"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2229.39,"endTime":2233.32,"body":"two, and F three, the model that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2229.39,"endTime":2233.32,"body":"I'm interested in is a latent"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2233.32,"endTime":2237.22,"body":"path model where there's a path"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2233.32,"endTime":2237.22,"body":"from f1 to f2, and a path from F"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2237.22,"endTime":2242.02,"body":"two to F three. And then I also"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2237.22,"endTime":2242.02,"body":"have a direct path from f1 to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2242.02,"endTime":2245.92,"body":"f3. Right? So simple structural"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2242.02,"endTime":2245.92,"body":"model. And then I have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2245.92,"endTime":2248.56,"body":"indicators for all of those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2245.92,"endTime":2248.56,"body":"factors, we could just say three"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2248.56,"endTime":2251.11,"body":"indicators for each of those."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2248.56,"endTime":2251.11,"body":"And imagine that this is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2251.11,"endTime":2254.38,"body":"someone's model, what they want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2251.11,"endTime":2254.38,"body":"to do. And when I say that, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2254.38,"endTime":2258.07,"body":"I mean is what they want to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2254.38,"endTime":2258.07,"body":"able to do sample size planning"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2258.07,"endTime":2261.07,"body":"for so then the question is,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2258.07,"endTime":2261.07,"body":"what are the steps that someone"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2261.07,"endTime":2263.86,"body":"would go through to be able to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2261.07,"endTime":2263.86,"body":"do sample size planning for a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2263.86,"endTime":2266.53,"body":"model of this type. So now"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2263.86,"endTime":2266.53,"body":"someone has come into my office,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2266.53,"endTime":2270.01,"body":"and they have said, this is the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2266.53,"endTime":2270.01,"body":"study, I am planning, this is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2270.01,"endTime":2272.77,"body":"what it looks like, I want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2270.01,"endTime":2272.77,"body":"know about the indirect effect"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2272.77,"endTime":2277.3,"body":"of f1 on f3. And maybe the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2272.77,"endTime":2277.3,"body":"direct effect that it has as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2277.3,"endTime":2280.9,"body":"well. So this is where my theory"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2277.3,"endTime":2280.9,"body":"is I say, great. So we need to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2280.9,"endTime":2284.35,"body":"plan your sample size, here are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2280.9,"endTime":2284.35,"body":"the things that we need to do to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2284.35,"endTime":2287.5,"body":"start the first thing now that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2284.35,"endTime":2287.5,"body":"we have it drawn up on the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2287.5,"endTime":2291.01,"body":"whiteboard, is I need you to go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2287.5,"endTime":2291.01,"body":"up there, I need you to tell me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2291.19,"endTime":2295.27,"body":"what you think the numerical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2291.19,"endTime":2295.27,"body":"values are of those structural"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2295.27,"endTime":2297.82,"body":"relations that you're going to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2295.27,"endTime":2297.82,"body":"have to detect"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2297.85,"endTime":2300.58,"body":"things get a little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2297.85,"endTime":2300.58,"body":"uncomfortable, but no more so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2300.58,"endTime":2302.08,"body":"than with Satorious Rs,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2302.11,"endTime":2305.26,"body":"exactly. Right. So no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2302.11,"endTime":2305.26,"body":"matter whether you're doing the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2305.26,"endTime":2308.89,"body":"mathematical version of this,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2305.26,"endTime":2308.89,"body":"that Satori and Sarris laid out,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2308.92,"endTime":2312.79,"body":"or, frankly, you're doing the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2308.92,"endTime":2312.79,"body":"power analysis for an ANOVA. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2312.79,"endTime":2315.49,"body":"I asked you to specify the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2312.79,"endTime":2315.49,"body":"effect sizes for the differences"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2315.49,"endTime":2318.97,"body":"associated with the means. Power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2315.49,"endTime":2318.97,"body":"of what you have to tell me the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2318.97,"endTime":2322.18,"body":"what, in order for us to talk"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2318.97,"endTime":2322.18,"body":"about power. So you say, Okay,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2322.18,"endTime":2324.58,"body":"well, what metrics should I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2322.18,"endTime":2324.58,"body":"write it in on the board? So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2324.61,"endTime":2327.16,"body":"let's just use a standardized"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2324.61,"endTime":2327.16,"body":"metric and say, Okay, I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2327.16,"endTime":2330.22,"body":"this path here is a point five,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2327.16,"endTime":2330.22,"body":"I think this path here is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2330.22,"endTime":2333.76,"body":"point three, and I think this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2330.22,"endTime":2333.76,"body":"path over here is a point six,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2333.85,"endTime":2336.31,"body":"is that okay? And you might have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2333.85,"endTime":2336.31,"body":"answered that based on your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2336.31,"endTime":2339.67,"body":"theoretical knowledge, you might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2336.31,"endTime":2339.67,"body":"have answered that based on sort"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2339.67,"endTime":2342.91,"body":"of the smallest value that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2339.67,"endTime":2342.91,"body":"would be interested in being"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2342.91,"endTime":2345.76,"body":"able to detect and even that is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2342.91,"endTime":2345.76,"body":"the conversation that we have."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2345.79,"endTime":2348.76,"body":"So are we ready to do this?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2345.79,"endTime":2348.76,"body":"Well, there's some other things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2348.76,"endTime":2351.07,"body":"that we're going to have to do,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2348.76,"endTime":2351.07,"body":"because there's a measurement"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2351.07,"endTime":2354.19,"body":"model associated with each of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2351.07,"endTime":2354.19,"body":"these factors. And so now I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2354.19,"endTime":2357.61,"body":"going to ask you, what are the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2354.19,"endTime":2357.61,"body":"loadings associated with each of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2357.61,"endTime":2360.52,"body":"these factors? You're like, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2357.61,"endTime":2360.52,"body":"I have to know the loadings of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2360.52,"endTime":2360.73,"body":"these,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2360.79,"endTime":2363.55,"body":"you got to know how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2360.79,"endTime":2363.55,"body":"many items to put on the dam for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2363.55,"endTime":2363.73,"body":"how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2363.73,"endTime":2365.98,"body":"many items do you put on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2363.73,"endTime":2365.98,"body":"there? That's right, three,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2365.98,"endTime":2368.77,"body":"five, how many you got? And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2365.98,"endTime":2368.77,"body":"honestly, sometimes people don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2368.77,"endTime":2371.32,"body":"even know that when they enter"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2368.77,"endTime":2371.32,"body":"into the conversation. But let's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2371.32,"endTime":2373.66,"body":"assume they've nailed it down"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2371.32,"endTime":2373.66,"body":"and we'll go with the three"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2373.66,"endTime":2376.18,"body":"items per factor only because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2373.66,"endTime":2376.18,"body":"they've said that's what we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2376.18,"endTime":2379.99,"body":"have, as past research told you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2376.18,"endTime":2379.99,"body":"what these loadings ought to be."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2380.08,"endTime":2383.05,"body":"Is there reliability information"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2380.08,"endTime":2383.05,"body":"on any of those individual"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2383.05,"endTime":2385.57,"body":"indicators that might give us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2383.05,"endTime":2385.57,"body":"some sense of how strongly it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2385.57,"endTime":2388.51,"body":"would load on a common factor?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2385.57,"endTime":2388.51,"body":"Okay, then by God, we might use"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2388.51,"endTime":2392.5,"body":"that or is there some value that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2388.51,"endTime":2392.5,"body":"you think is sort of on the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2392.5,"endTime":2396.01,"body":"weaker side, but you're being"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2392.5,"endTime":2396.01,"body":"cautious and Okay, great. Let's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2396.01,"endTime":2399.07,"body":"try these things. At least let's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2396.01,"endTime":2399.07,"body":"put those in as placeholders for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2399.07,"endTime":2402.55,"body":"now but I Have to get numbers on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2399.07,"endTime":2402.55,"body":"those loadings, do we have all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2402.55,"endTime":2403.69,"body":"the moving parts? Patrick,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2403.75,"endTime":2406.24,"body":"we've still done"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2403.75,"endTime":2406.24,"body":"nothing different than we did"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2406.24,"endTime":2410.05,"body":"with Satori. Oh, yeah, we are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2406.24,"endTime":2410.05,"body":"building the model we believe to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2410.05,"endTime":2414.13,"body":"exist in the population. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2410.05,"endTime":2414.13,"body":"nothing is different yet, you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2414.13,"endTime":2417.43,"body":"still at the whiteboard, you've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2414.13,"endTime":2417.43,"body":"still drawn your model, you've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2417.43,"endTime":2421.69,"body":"still put in your hypothesized"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2417.43,"endTime":2421.69,"body":"values. So this is just a repeat"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2421.69,"endTime":2424.9,"body":"of what we've done so far. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2421.69,"endTime":2424.9,"body":"now here's where we're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2424.9,"endTime":2425.47,"body":"take a right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2425.47,"endTime":2428.44,"body":"turn. And this is where it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2425.47,"endTime":2428.44,"body":"gets cool, right? I can put this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2428.44,"endTime":2432.94,"body":"into m plus, I can use a variety"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2428.44,"endTime":2432.94,"body":"of our packages that you can do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2432.94,"endTime":2435.91,"body":"this, once you communicate your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2432.94,"endTime":2435.91,"body":"model, this will now become a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2435.91,"endTime":2438.76,"body":"simulation. And what I mean by"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2435.91,"endTime":2438.76,"body":"that is that once you specify"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2438.76,"endTime":2442.27,"body":"the nature of the population, if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2438.76,"endTime":2442.27,"body":"I say something to the program,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2442.27,"endTime":2446.2,"body":"like let's take samples of size"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2442.27,"endTime":2446.2,"body":"100, what the software can do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2446.23,"endTime":2449.44,"body":"with some assumptions is imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2446.23,"endTime":2449.44,"body":"reaching into the population"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2449.44,"endTime":2452.92,"body":"drawing out a sample of size"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2449.44,"endTime":2452.92,"body":"100, running your model,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2453.01,"endTime":2456.4,"body":"computing estimates for all of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2453.01,"endTime":2456.4,"body":"the parameters, the loadings,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2456.4,"endTime":2458.71,"body":"everything, but you are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2456.4,"endTime":2458.71,"body":"particularly interested in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2458.71,"endTime":2462.88,"body":"tracking the behavior of those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2458.71,"endTime":2462.88,"body":"three key structural parameters"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2462.88,"endTime":2466.27,"body":"from F one, F two to F three, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2462.88,"endTime":2466.27,"body":"do that for the first sample of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2466.27,"endTime":2469.75,"body":"size 100. The second sample, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2466.27,"endTime":2469.75,"body":"third sample, we do this some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2469.96,"endTime":2472.48,"body":"reasonably large number of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2469.96,"endTime":2472.48,"body":"times, I don't know, let's just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2472.48,"endTime":2476.29,"body":"say 10,000 times. And what I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2472.48,"endTime":2476.29,"body":"will get out of that will be an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2476.29,"endTime":2480.82,"body":"empirical sampling distribution"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2476.29,"endTime":2480.82,"body":"of each of those structural"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2480.82,"endTime":2483.13,"body":"parameters that I care about, as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2480.82,"endTime":2483.13,"body":"well as all of the other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2483.13,"endTime":2486.52,"body":"parameters that we have. So now"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2483.13,"endTime":2486.52,"body":"the statistical question is, how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2486.52,"endTime":2489.04,"body":"many of those would be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2486.52,"endTime":2489.04,"body":"statistically significant? If I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2489.04,"endTime":2491.89,"body":"take the path from f1 to f2? How"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2489.04,"endTime":2491.89,"body":"many of those reached"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2491.89,"endTime":2495.7,"body":"statistical significance? And if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2491.89,"endTime":2495.7,"body":"the answer is 40%, then I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2495.7,"endTime":2500.05,"body":"like, Oh, heck, that's an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2495.7,"endTime":2500.05,"body":"estimate of 40% power. That's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2500.05,"endTime":2502.63,"body":"not what I want at all right? I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2500.05,"endTime":2502.63,"body":"want something more. So that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2502.63,"endTime":2505.03,"body":"tells me that, at least with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2502.63,"endTime":2505.03,"body":"respect to that parameter, I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2505.03,"endTime":2507.85,"body":"going to have to increase my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2505.03,"endTime":2507.85,"body":"sample size. But while I'm at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2507.85,"endTime":2511.27,"body":"it, I would check how many of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2507.85,"endTime":2511.27,"body":"the tests of the path from F to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2511.27,"endTime":2513.79,"body":"F three were statistically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2511.27,"endTime":2513.79,"body":"significant, how many of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2513.79,"endTime":2518.08,"body":"path from f1 to f3. So I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2513.79,"endTime":2518.08,"body":"getting these empirically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2518.08,"endTime":2521.89,"body":"generated values for power. That"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2518.08,"endTime":2521.89,"body":"gives me a sense of whether or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2521.89,"endTime":2525.28,"body":"not I need to turn the sample"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2521.89,"endTime":2525.28,"body":"size knob up, or the sample size"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2525.28,"endTime":2528.7,"body":"knob down. And what I learned"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2525.28,"endTime":2528.7,"body":"pretty quickly is that there is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2528.7,"endTime":2532.15,"body":"going to be a weakest link in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2528.7,"endTime":2532.15,"body":"this whole model, that's going"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2532.15,"endTime":2534.25,"body":"to be the one that holds"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2532.15,"endTime":2534.25,"body":"everything up, right, there's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2534.25,"endTime":2536.65,"body":"going to be one parameter, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2534.25,"endTime":2536.65,"body":"other parameters are going to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2536.65,"endTime":2539.05,"body":"like, Hey, we're okay, we've got"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2536.65,"endTime":2539.05,"body":"enough power. And you've got"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2539.05,"endTime":2541.51,"body":"this other parameter that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2539.05,"endTime":2541.51,"body":"holding everybody else up where"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2541.51,"endTime":2544.03,"body":"you have to keep turning up the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2541.51,"endTime":2544.03,"body":"sample size knob to get that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2544.03,"endTime":2547.69,"body":"slowest one across the finish"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2544.03,"endTime":2547.69,"body":"line. But that's essentially the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2547.69,"endTime":2550.93,"body":"setup for things under whatever"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2547.69,"endTime":2550.93,"body":"assumed distributional"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2550.93,"endTime":2553.93,"body":"conditions we have. Currently,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2550.93,"endTime":2553.93,"body":"I'll just say normal under the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2553.93,"endTime":2557.77,"body":"assumption of complete data and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2553.93,"endTime":2557.77,"body":"all of that this is essentially"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2557.77,"endTime":2560.95,"body":"how it works, where we keep"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2557.77,"endTime":2560.95,"body":"tweaking that sample size knob"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2561.13,"endTime":2564.58,"body":"until we get all the parameter"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2561.13,"endTime":2564.58,"body":"estimates that we care about to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2564.58,"endTime":2568.51,"body":"have statistical significance of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2564.58,"endTime":2568.51,"body":"some threshold power level of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2568.51,"endTime":2570.85,"body":"something that we're happy with,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2568.51,"endTime":2570.85,"body":"let's say point eight, oh,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2570.97,"endTime":2573.58,"body":"you may say cheese"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2570.97,"endTime":2573.58,"body":"sounds an awful lot like what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2573.58,"endTime":2577.0,"body":"you get out of Satorious saris"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2573.58,"endTime":2577.0,"body":"and you would be right, if you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2577.0,"endTime":2580.15,"body":"meet assumptions, if you have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2577.0,"endTime":2580.15,"body":"large enough sample size, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2580.15,"endTime":2583.21,"body":"you have continuity, and you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2580.15,"endTime":2583.21,"body":"have normality. And you do what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2583.21,"endTime":2586.69,"body":"Greg just described in the Monte"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2583.21,"endTime":2586.69,"body":"Carlo, and you do it 10,000"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2586.69,"endTime":2592.03,"body":"times. And you compute what is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2586.69,"endTime":2592.03,"body":"the mean number of parameters"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2592.06,"endTime":2596.26,"body":"that I rejected at a P of oh"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2592.06,"endTime":2596.26,"body":"five that is going to converge"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2596.26,"endTime":2599.65,"body":"on the Satorious RS analytic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2596.26,"endTime":2599.65,"body":"method, they are one in the same"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2599.68,"endTime":2603.31,"body":"way are they separate is when we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2599.68,"endTime":2603.31,"body":"start to violate those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2603.31,"endTime":2606.94,"body":"assumptions. So you're doing a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2603.31,"endTime":2606.94,"body":"longitudinal growth model in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2606.94,"endTime":2610.03,"body":"Satorious Rs? Do you got a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2606.94,"endTime":2610.03,"body":"covariance matrix in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2610.03,"endTime":2613.93,"body":"population, a covariance matrix"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2610.03,"endTime":2613.93,"body":"under some misspecification in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2613.93,"endTime":2618.31,"body":"the population? Well, in this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2613.93,"endTime":2618.31,"body":"simulation, you shrug we do a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2618.31,"endTime":2621.91,"body":"lot of shrugging, and you say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2618.31,"endTime":2621.91,"body":"well, let's punch out 20% of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2621.91,"endTime":2625.84,"body":"observations in any given sample"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2621.91,"endTime":2625.84,"body":"under an Mar assumption, let's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2625.84,"endTime":2630.37,"body":"make them a little skewed. Let's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2625.84,"endTime":2630.37,"body":"introduce a touch of dependence,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2630.4,"endTime":2635.62,"body":"let's put in a couple of Irish"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2630.4,"endTime":2635.62,"body":"loadings. And now let's do it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2635.62,"endTime":2640.12,"body":"10,000 times and see what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2635.62,"endTime":2640.12,"body":"proportion we would reject."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2640.33,"endTime":2644.05,"body":"Because now we have what's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2640.33,"endTime":2644.05,"body":"sometimes called an empirical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2644.08,"endTime":2648.31,"body":"estimate of power, where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2644.08,"endTime":2648.31,"body":"Satorious Soros has an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2648.34,"endTime":2652.96,"body":"analytical or asymptotic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2648.34,"endTime":2652.96,"body":"estimate of power. The empirical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2652.99,"endTime":2659.68,"body":"is you literally say, of my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2652.99,"endTime":2659.68,"body":"10,000 regression coefficients"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2659.71,"endTime":2663.43,"body":"estimated between f1 and f2."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2659.71,"endTime":2663.43,"body":"Under all of those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2663.43,"endTime":2669.49,"body":"characteristics I described 68%"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2663.43,"endTime":2669.49,"body":"had a p value less than point oh"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2669.49,"endTime":2672.76,"body":"five, your empirical power"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2669.49,"endTime":2672.76,"body":"estimate is point six, eight, if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2672.76,"endTime":2675.73,"body":"you do the study, as you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2672.76,"endTime":2675.73,"body":"described in your study"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2675.73,"endTime":2678.91,"body":"corresponds to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2675.73,"endTime":2678.91,"body":"characteristics as you generated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2678.91,"endTime":2683.14,"body":"the data. You have a point six,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2678.91,"endTime":2683.14,"body":"eight chance of finding an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2683.14,"endTime":2687.1,"body":"effect if an effect really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2683.14,"endTime":2687.1,"body":"exists. Boom, in and out, nobody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2687.1,"endTime":2690.55,"body":"gets hurt. There is your power"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2687.1,"endTime":2690.55,"body":"of what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2690.79,"endTime":2696.1,"body":"sort of sorta sorta kinda"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2690.79,"endTime":2696.1,"body":"sorta I'll tell you my kind of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2696.1,"endTime":2700.96,"body":"sorta here and that is under"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2696.1,"endTime":2700.96,"body":"those specific To conditions,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2701.26,"endTime":2704.86,"body":"that degree of missingness, that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2701.26,"endTime":2704.86,"body":"type of missingness, with those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2704.86,"endTime":2710.59,"body":"particular loadings with Saturn"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2704.86,"endTime":2710.59,"body":"in Jupiter's fourth house."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2722.5,"endTime":2727.27,"body":"Under those specific conditions,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2722.5,"endTime":2727.27,"body":"you have a beautiful, beautiful"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2727.27,"endTime":2728.26,"body":"estimate of power,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2728.29,"endTime":2729.43,"body":"in fairness to me,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2729.46,"endTime":2730.36,"body":"which is what's important."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2730.39,"endTime":2733.75,"body":"I said, if your sample"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2730.39,"endTime":2733.75,"body":"corresponds to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2733.75,"endTime":2737.32,"body":"characteristic that you defined"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2733.75,"endTime":2737.32,"body":"in your model,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2737.35,"endTime":2741.43,"body":"yeah. Oh, that's such a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2737.35,"endTime":2741.43,"body":"pregnant if isn't it at this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2741.43,"endTime":2745.27,"body":"point, right? I'm of two minds."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2741.43,"endTime":2745.27,"body":"One, mine is like, boss screw"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2745.27,"endTime":2748.36,"body":"this whole thing. I'm outta"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2745.27,"endTime":2748.36,"body":"here. Right? All right, that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2748.36,"endTime":2748.75,"body":"does it."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2749.89,"endTime":2750.7,"body":"I'm going home."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2753.01,"endTime":2756.55,"body":"Seriously, because even if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2753.01,"endTime":2756.55,"body":"we just take the model that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2756.55,"endTime":2760.0,"body":"started with, how do I know the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2756.55,"endTime":2760.0,"body":"value of those paths? Well, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2760.0,"endTime":2762.58,"body":"don't but you make an educated"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2760.0,"endTime":2762.58,"body":"guess, how do I know the value"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2762.58,"endTime":2765.37,"body":"of those loadings? Or don't I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2762.58,"endTime":2765.37,"body":"just make an educated guess? How"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2765.37,"endTime":2767.8,"body":"do I know what the distributions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2765.37,"endTime":2767.8,"body":"are? Like? I don't know it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2767.8,"endTime":2773.89,"body":"making. It's an this is such a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2767.8,"endTime":2773.89,"body":"Jenga tower of assumptions that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2773.89,"endTime":2776.92,"body":"you might feel like what the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2773.89,"endTime":2776.92,"body":"heck is the point of all of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2776.92,"endTime":2779.98,"body":"this, so there's a part of me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2776.92,"endTime":2779.98,"body":"that would lead me to throw my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2779.98,"endTime":2783.82,"body":"hands up. But the other side of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2779.98,"endTime":2783.82,"body":"this is that it sets the stage"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2783.91,"endTime":2788.53,"body":"so beautifully, for being able"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2783.91,"endTime":2788.53,"body":"to do the equivalent of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2788.53,"endTime":2791.86,"body":"sensitivity analysis, think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2788.53,"endTime":2791.86,"body":"about all the different knobs"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2791.86,"endTime":2795.01,"body":"that are being turned here. One"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2791.86,"endTime":2795.01,"body":"is just the values that you put"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2795.01,"endTime":2799.36,"body":"in structurally, the point five,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2795.01,"endTime":2799.36,"body":"the point three, the point four,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2799.36,"endTime":2801.94,"body":"or whatever the numbers are that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2799.36,"endTime":2801.94,"body":"we put in there, you can try?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2801.94,"endTime":2804.46,"body":"What would it be like if those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2801.94,"endTime":2804.46,"body":"were different, you can try?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2804.46,"endTime":2806.77,"body":"Well, what about the loadings?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2804.46,"endTime":2806.77,"body":"Well, you can try it if the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2806.77,"endTime":2809.8,"body":"loading values are different."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2806.77,"endTime":2809.8,"body":"What if there are some Irish"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2809.8,"endTime":2813.19,"body":"cross loadings? Like Patrick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2809.8,"endTime":2813.19,"body":"said, yeah, you can put in some,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2813.22,"endTime":2816.22,"body":"you can put in a few more, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2813.22,"endTime":2816.22,"body":"can twiddle the knobs on the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2816.22,"endTime":2819.64,"body":"magnitude of those. What about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2816.22,"endTime":2819.64,"body":"missingness? Yeah, that's right."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2819.64,"endTime":2822.82,"body":"You can try different levels of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2819.64,"endTime":2822.82,"body":"missingness. What about non"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2822.82,"endTime":2824.92,"body":"normality? Yeah, you can try"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2822.82,"endTime":2824.92,"body":"different levels of non"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2824.92,"endTime":2828.76,"body":"normality. You can sort of ask"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2824.92,"endTime":2828.76,"body":"yourself, What is the worst"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2828.76,"endTime":2832.36,"body":"perfect storm that I can imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2828.76,"endTime":2832.36,"body":"of conditions? And maybe the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2832.36,"endTime":2836.32,"body":"answer is, you've got some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2832.36,"endTime":2836.32,"body":"wicked non normality. And you've"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2836.32,"endTime":2839.53,"body":"got some missingness in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2836.32,"endTime":2839.53,"body":"particular pattern, and you've"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2839.53,"endTime":2842.47,"body":"got some low loadings, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2839.53,"endTime":2842.47,"body":"you've got some cross loadings,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2842.47,"endTime":2844.51,"body":"and you've got some weak"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2842.47,"endTime":2844.51,"body":"structural pads, you're like,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2844.51,"endTime":2848.86,"body":"Bring it on, right, you define"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2844.51,"endTime":2848.86,"body":"the worst case scenario, you run"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2848.86,"endTime":2852.37,"body":"the simulation, you turn the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2848.86,"endTime":2852.37,"body":"crank, and you power your study"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2852.37,"endTime":2856.36,"body":"for that, then you are ready for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2852.37,"endTime":2856.36,"body":"just about anything. So I would"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2856.36,"endTime":2860.65,"body":"say this framework gives us the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2856.36,"endTime":2860.65,"body":"ability to understand how robust"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2860.65,"endTime":2863.98,"body":"our estimates are, and hope for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2860.65,"endTime":2863.98,"body":"the best, but plan for the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2863.98,"endTime":2867.82,"body":"worst. When I'm writing up that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2863.98,"endTime":2867.82,"body":"grant proposal, I don't just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2867.82,"endTime":2870.85,"body":"say, I looked at the power for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2867.82,"endTime":2870.85,"body":"the root mean square error of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2870.85,"endTime":2873.22,"body":"approximation, because first of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2870.85,"endTime":2873.22,"body":"all, it doesn't correspond to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2873.22,"endTime":2877.81,"body":"any of my hypotheses, I can say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2873.22,"endTime":2877.81,"body":"I did a sample size planning"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2877.87,"endTime":2882.07,"body":"endeavor where we essentially"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2877.87,"endTime":2882.07,"body":"defined the worst case scenario."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2882.34,"endTime":2884.89,"body":"And this is what we got here."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2882.34,"endTime":2884.89,"body":"And if you can get your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2884.89,"endTime":2888.01,"body":"reviewers to buy into your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2884.89,"endTime":2888.01,"body":"conception of that worst case"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2888.01,"endTime":2890.71,"body":"scenario, and that you have a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2888.01,"endTime":2890.71,"body":"sample size to overcome that,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2890.89,"endTime":2894.16,"body":"then you are in phenomenal"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2890.89,"endTime":2894.16,"body":"shape. What I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2894.16,"endTime":2897.13,"body":"love to see are these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2894.16,"endTime":2897.13,"body":"ranges as you talk about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2897.13,"endTime":2901.9,"body":"sensitivity analysis is our best"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2897.13,"endTime":2901.9,"body":"faith effort is we have a power"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2901.9,"endTime":2905.56,"body":"of point six, eight, to detect"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2901.9,"endTime":2905.56,"body":"this very specific effect. If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2905.56,"endTime":2910.9,"body":"things really shift sideways on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2905.56,"endTime":2910.9,"body":"us the worst possible situation,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2910.9,"endTime":2913.69,"body":"we're going to get as point six"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2910.9,"endTime":2913.69,"body":"one. And if things break our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2913.69,"endTime":2917.77,"body":"way, point eight, three, give"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2913.69,"endTime":2917.77,"body":"kind of a low medium high"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2917.77,"endTime":2921.61,"body":"estimate. And that conveys a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2917.77,"endTime":2921.61,"body":"huge amount of information to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2921.61,"endTime":2924.46,"body":"the reviewer. But you know, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2921.61,"endTime":2924.46,"body":"always talk to the reviewer,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2924.46,"endTime":2928.0,"body":"screw the reviewer, it's to you,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2924.46,"endTime":2928.0,"body":"you have an ethical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2928.0,"endTime":2932.95,"body":"responsibility to build a study"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2928.0,"endTime":2932.95,"body":"that has a fighting chance to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2932.95,"endTime":2936.7,"body":"detect an effect if an effect"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2932.95,"endTime":2936.7,"body":"really exists. And this is how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2936.7,"endTime":2939.64,"body":"you go about doing it. Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2936.7,"endTime":2939.64,"body":"dude, we're getting long in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2939.64,"endTime":2941.56,"body":"tooth. So let's walk to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2939.64,"endTime":2941.56,"body":"exit."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2941.68,"endTime":2944.38,"body":"In that first power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2941.68,"endTime":2944.38,"body":"episode, episode two, season"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2944.38,"endTime":2947.23,"body":"one, we talked about the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2944.38,"endTime":2947.23,"body":"challenges associated with power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2947.23,"endTime":2950.38,"body":"analysis just as an endeavor,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2947.23,"endTime":2950.38,"body":"that it's very difficult to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2950.38,"endTime":2953.95,"body":"characterize power in some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2950.38,"endTime":2953.95,"body":"single number, let alone with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2953.95,"endTime":2957.55,"body":"any degree of precision. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2953.95,"endTime":2957.55,"body":"that was, as we said before, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2957.55,"endTime":2960.97,"body":"curse the darkness of power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2957.55,"endTime":2960.97,"body":"analysis episode, and in this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2960.97,"endTime":2964.54,"body":"episode, what we tried to do is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2960.97,"endTime":2964.54,"body":"we tried to pair that with, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2964.54,"endTime":2968.35,"body":"gotta do the power analysis, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2964.54,"endTime":2968.35,"body":"still got to do the sample size"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2968.35,"endTime":2971.74,"body":"planning. So how do you do it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2968.35,"endTime":2971.74,"body":"and you and I both lean toward"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2971.86,"endTime":2974.35,"body":"the structural equation modeling"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2971.86,"endTime":2974.35,"body":"framework, not because it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2974.35,"endTime":2977.11,"body":"power in structural equation"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2974.35,"endTime":2977.11,"body":"modeling because it's power in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2977.26,"endTime":2980.23,"body":"darn near anything you want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2977.26,"endTime":2980.23,"body":"do not literally everything, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2980.23,"endTime":2983.56,"body":"darn near anything that you want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2980.23,"endTime":2983.56,"body":"to do. And it has a mathematical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2983.56,"endTime":2987.34,"body":"side to it that you could do if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2983.56,"endTime":2987.34,"body":"you want and it also has what I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2987.34,"endTime":2992.05,"body":"think is incredibly versatile,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2987.34,"endTime":2992.05,"body":"this simulation based side and I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2992.05,"endTime":2995.41,"body":"think that for people out there"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2992.05,"endTime":2995.41,"body":"who are doing honest sample size"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2995.41,"endTime":3000.09,"body":"planning, this is a wonderful go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2995.41,"endTime":3000.09,"body":"to framework for them to use To"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3000.09,"endTime":3001.05,"body":"lay things out,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3001.08,"endTime":3004.23,"body":"hopefully, we may have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3001.08,"endTime":3004.23,"body":"got you thinking a little bit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3004.23,"endTime":3008.58,"body":"more about the power of what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3004.23,"endTime":3008.58,"body":"don't let your advisor don't let"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3008.58,"endTime":3012.24,"body":"an article reviewer, don't let a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3008.58,"endTime":3012.24,"body":"grant reviewer get away by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3012.24,"endTime":3016.17,"body":"saying, Well, what is the power"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3012.24,"endTime":3016.17,"body":"of your model? Yeah, turn it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3016.17,"endTime":3019.8,"body":"back on them and to say, Well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3016.17,"endTime":3019.8,"body":"what do you mean? Do you mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3019.8,"endTime":3023.61,"body":"the power of an omnibus exact"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3019.8,"endTime":3023.61,"body":"fit? Do you mean the power of an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3023.64,"endTime":3028.05,"body":"omnibus close fit? Do you mean a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3023.64,"endTime":3028.05,"body":"one degree of freedom?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3028.05,"endTime":3030.93,"body":"misspecification? Do you mean a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3028.05,"endTime":3030.93,"body":"multiple degree of freedom?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3030.93,"endTime":3035.37,"body":"misspecification? Do you mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3030.93,"endTime":3035.37,"body":"under asymptotic assumptions,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3035.46,"endTime":3040.68,"body":"the power of what and with the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3035.46,"endTime":3040.68,"body":"simulation methodology, whether"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3040.68,"endTime":3045.69,"body":"you use canned stuff that exists"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3040.68,"endTime":3045.69,"body":"in is very good, but also being"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3045.69,"endTime":3050.07,"body":"able to program this for any"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3045.69,"endTime":3050.07,"body":"model you want? If you have some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3050.07,"endTime":3053.73,"body":"weird three level cross"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3050.07,"endTime":3053.73,"body":"classified model, and you want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3053.73,"endTime":3058.71,"body":"to know what is the power to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3053.73,"endTime":3058.71,"body":"detect a random effect, you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3058.71,"endTime":3062.94,"body":"write a Monte Carlo simulation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3058.71,"endTime":3062.94,"body":"that you generate 10,000 random"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3062.94,"endTime":3066.75,"body":"effect estimates and just count"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3062.94,"endTime":3066.75,"body":"up how many are significant. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3066.75,"endTime":3073.05,"body":"can, in principle, find the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3066.75,"endTime":3073.05,"body":"empirical power of any parameter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3073.08,"endTime":3076.11,"body":"in any model that you can draw"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3073.08,"endTime":3076.11,"body":"on the board. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3076.11,"endTime":3078.51,"body":"I think as scientists,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3076.11,"endTime":3078.51,"body":"this is really what we ought to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3078.51,"endTime":3082.29,"body":"be doing making this full,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3078.51,"endTime":3082.29,"body":"honest attempt at trying to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3082.47,"endTime":3085.98,"body":"at the power of the things that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3082.47,"endTime":3085.98,"body":"we care about. Right? These are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3085.98,"endTime":3088.86,"body":"my research questions. This is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3085.98,"endTime":3088.86,"body":"how I'm going to get at those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3088.86,"endTime":3091.65,"body":"research questions. Here are the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3088.86,"endTime":3091.65,"body":"sample sizes I need to get at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3091.65,"endTime":3094.59,"body":"those research questions in this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3091.65,"endTime":3094.59,"body":"particular context."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3094.74,"endTime":3098.25,"body":"And you know what, I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3094.74,"endTime":3098.25,"body":"going to double down on what I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3098.25,"endTime":3103.65,"body":"advocated in the initial episode"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3098.25,"endTime":3103.65,"body":"here because I still feel this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3103.65,"endTime":3107.43,"body":"way about the precision of power"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3103.65,"endTime":3107.43,"body":"estimates you really nicely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3107.43,"endTime":3110.73,"body":"described well, what loadings,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3107.43,"endTime":3110.73,"body":"what residual variances, what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3110.73,"endTime":3115.44,"body":"there's so many moving parts and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3110.73,"endTime":3115.44,"body":"subjective decisions. I still"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3115.44,"endTime":3121.23,"body":"think we should have a smiley"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3115.44,"endTime":3121.23,"body":"face emoji, a shrug, emoji, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3121.26,"endTime":3127.68,"body":"OOP emoji you for power. But now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3121.26,"endTime":3127.68,"body":"we fix those emojis to the power"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3127.68,"endTime":3132.39,"body":"of what now it's not just I have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3127.68,"endTime":3132.39,"body":"a shrug emoji for my entire"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3132.39,"endTime":3137.76,"body":"model. I have somewhere between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3132.39,"endTime":3137.76,"body":"a shrug emoji and a smiley face"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3137.76,"endTime":3141.72,"body":"emoji to detect my treatment"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3137.76,"endTime":3141.72,"body":"effect and a bivariate growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3141.72,"endTime":3146.82,"body":"model over five time periods."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3141.72,"endTime":3146.82,"body":"With 22% attrition and six"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3146.82,"endTime":3150.39,"body":"ordinal level indicators. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3146.82,"endTime":3150.39,"body":"still advocate the emojis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3150.42,"endTime":3151.65,"body":"I feel an eggplant coming"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3150.42,"endTime":3151.65,"body":"on."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3151.8,"endTime":3153.39,"body":"That is for your work"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":3151.8,"endTime":3153.39,"body":"on."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3154.29,"endTime":3156.75,"body":"All right, thanks very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3154.29,"endTime":3156.75,"body":"much. Toodles. Everybody, take"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3156.75,"endTime":3157.2,"body":"care."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3162.0,"endTime":3164.13,"body":"Thanks so much for joining us."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3162.0,"endTime":3164.13,"body":"Don't forget to tell your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3164.13,"endTime":3167.64,"body":"friends to subscribe to us on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3164.13,"endTime":3167.64,"body":"Apple podcasts, Spotify, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3167.64,"endTime":3170.25,"body":"wherever they go. When life is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3167.64,"endTime":3170.25,"body":"so overwhelming. They'd rather"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3170.25,"endTime":3173.55,"body":"listen to a podcast about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3170.25,"endTime":3173.55,"body":"statistics and root canals. You"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3173.55,"endTime":3176.4,"body":"can also follow us on Twitter"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3173.55,"endTime":3176.4,"body":"where we are at quantity pod and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3176.4,"endTime":3178.98,"body":"visit our website quantity"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3176.4,"endTime":3178.98,"body":"pod.org where you can leave us a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3178.98,"endTime":3181.92,"body":"message find organized playlists"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3178.98,"endTime":3181.92,"body":"and shownotes. Listen to past"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3181.92,"endTime":3184.44,"body":"episodes and other fun stuff."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3181.92,"endTime":3184.44,"body":"And finally, you can get cool"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3184.44,"endTime":3187.14,"body":"quantity merch like shirts,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3184.44,"endTime":3187.14,"body":"mugs, stickers and spiral"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3187.14,"endTime":3190.2,"body":"notebooks from Red bubble.com"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3187.14,"endTime":3190.2,"body":"where all proceeds from non"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3190.2,"endTime":3193.26,"body":"bootleg authorized merch go to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3190.2,"endTime":3193.26,"body":"donorschoose.org to help support"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3193.26,"endTime":3195.93,"body":"low income schools. You've been"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3193.26,"endTime":3195.93,"body":"listening to quantitative the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3195.93,"endTime":3199.26,"body":"podcast equivalent of that weird"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3195.93,"endTime":3199.26,"body":"second cousin who stays just a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3199.26,"endTime":3202.53,"body":"bit too long at holiday"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3199.26,"endTime":3202.53,"body":"gatherings. Today's episode has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3202.53,"endTime":3205.98,"body":"been sponsored by the bar chart."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3202.53,"endTime":3205.98,"body":"When the rest of the world hears"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3205.98,"endTime":3208.26,"body":"those words. They think of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3205.98,"endTime":3208.26,"body":"thing that tells them where to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3208.26,"endTime":3211.44,"body":"go next on their fun Saturday"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3208.26,"endTime":3211.44,"body":"night pub crawl with friends."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3211.56,"endTime":3214.08,"body":"When you hear a bar chart, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3211.56,"endTime":3214.08,"body":"think of a tool to visualize"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3214.08,"endTime":3217.26,"body":"distributions of data. Please"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3214.08,"endTime":3217.26,"body":"tell me you see the problem"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3217.26,"endTime":3221.91,"body":"here, and by Fisher's LSD, way"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3217.26,"endTime":3221.91,"body":"more powerful than two keys"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3221.91,"endTime":3225.72,"body":"magic mushrooms. And finally by"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3221.91,"endTime":3225.72,"body":"stepwise variable selection"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3225.72,"endTime":3229.92,"body":"methods and regression, maybe"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3225.72,"endTime":3229.92,"body":"not the best idea but still way"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3229.92,"endTime":3234.06,"body":"better than whale holes. This is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":3229.92,"endTime":3234.06,"body":"most definitely not NPR"}]}