{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":4.2,"endTime":6.81,"body":"Welcome, my name is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":4.2,"endTime":6.81,"body":"Patrick Curran and along with my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":6.81,"endTime":10.62,"body":"libertarian friend Greg Hancock,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":6.81,"endTime":10.62,"body":"we make up quantity Dude, we are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":10.62,"endTime":13.86,"body":"a podcast dedicated to all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":10.62,"endTime":13.86,"body":"things quantitative ranging from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":13.86,"endTime":16.8,"body":"the irrelevant to the completely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":13.86,"endTime":16.8,"body":"irrelevant. In this week's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":16.8,"endTime":20.28,"body":"episode, Greg and I Explore all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":16.8,"endTime":20.28,"body":"the ways we lie about things"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":20.28,"endTime":23.58,"body":"when we teach, not the least of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":20.28,"endTime":23.58,"body":"which is that there are actually"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":23.58,"endTime":27.06,"body":"no individual growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":23.58,"endTime":27.06,"body":"trajectories estimated in an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.06,"endTime":30.81,"body":"individual trajectory growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.06,"endTime":30.81,"body":"model, we discuss why this is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":30.9,"endTime":33.99,"body":"how individual trajectory"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":30.9,"endTime":33.99,"body":"estimates can be obtained, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":33.99,"endTime":37.53,"body":"how these might be of use in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":33.99,"endTime":37.53,"body":"practice. Along the way, we also"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":37.53,"endTime":42.09,"body":"discuss the greenlight button,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":37.53,"endTime":42.09,"body":"developmental milestones, love"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":42.09,"endTime":48.21,"body":"for semi colons, Jack Nicholson,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":42.09,"endTime":48.21,"body":"baskets of data. Oprah, it's all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":48.21,"endTime":52.86,"body":"crap, transparencies and dittos."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":48.21,"endTime":52.86,"body":"Yelling at your steering wheel,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":53.22,"endTime":57.84,"body":"Libertarians versus socialists,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":53.22,"endTime":57.84,"body":"carts and donkeys, catching"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":57.84,"endTime":63.03,"body":"squirrels, enemies on the field,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":57.84,"endTime":63.03,"body":"being stung bit and chased and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.03,"endTime":67.32,"body":"persnickety models. We hope you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.03,"endTime":67.32,"body":"enjoyed this week's episode. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":67.32,"endTime":71.04,"body":"both of us have teenage kids."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":67.32,"endTime":71.04,"body":"And I don't know what your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":71.04,"endTime":76.5,"body":"experience is up north. With"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":71.04,"endTime":76.5,"body":"increasing frequency things seem"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":76.5,"endTime":82.08,"body":"to arise at the dinner table"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":76.5,"endTime":82.08,"body":"where they say you told us this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":82.53,"endTime":86.49,"body":"at some point early on. And it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":82.53,"endTime":86.49,"body":"turns out that we just figured"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":86.49,"endTime":90.03,"body":"out that Do you have some of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":86.49,"endTime":90.03,"body":"this happening in your own"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":90.03,"endTime":90.45,"body":"house?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":90.48,"endTime":92.7,"body":"I mean, there's two ways"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":90.48,"endTime":92.7,"body":"of looking at it. Right? There's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":92.7,"endTime":96.72,"body":"the stuff I told them that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":92.7,"endTime":96.72,"body":"wasn't entirely accurate. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":96.72,"endTime":99.69,"body":"then there's stuff I just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":96.72,"endTime":99.69,"body":"withheld, telling them. So if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":99.69,"endTime":102.84,"body":"you mean things like the world"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":99.69,"endTime":102.84,"body":"isn't fair, you can't grow up to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":102.84,"endTime":108.81,"body":"be whatever you want. And I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":102.84,"endTime":108.81,"body":"not even sure I'm your dad. Then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":108.84,"endTime":111.42,"body":"there are some things that I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":108.84,"endTime":111.42,"body":"might have withheld just because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":111.42,"endTime":114.87,"body":"I didn't want to depress them"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":111.42,"endTime":114.87,"body":"the rest of their lives. But are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":114.87,"endTime":116.91,"body":"Is there something in particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":114.87,"endTime":116.91,"body":"that you're thinking of that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":116.91,"endTime":120.03,"body":"have had to walk back or that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":116.91,"endTime":120.03,"body":"your kids called your BS on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":120.06,"endTime":121.05,"body":"silly things"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":121.05,"endTime":123.99,"body":"come up here at home,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":121.05,"endTime":123.99,"body":"and one just made me smile?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":123.99,"endTime":128.55,"body":"Because it made me think back to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":123.99,"endTime":128.55,"body":"my own dad when I was a kid. At"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":128.55,"endTime":132.78,"body":"one point, I asked my dad, how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":128.55,"endTime":132.78,"body":"did stoplights work? He said,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":132.78,"endTime":135.54,"body":"Well, I've got a button in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":132.78,"endTime":135.54,"body":"car and you push the button and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":135.54,"endTime":138.57,"body":"it changes the light. And so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":135.54,"endTime":138.57,"body":"we'd pull up to the stoplight."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":138.6,"endTime":141.3,"body":"We were little kids and my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":138.6,"endTime":141.3,"body":"brother and I would say push the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":141.3,"endTime":144.27,"body":"button, push the button. And it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":141.3,"endTime":144.27,"body":"was really sweet. Because there"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":144.27,"endTime":147.72,"body":"was a life lesson in it. My dad"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":144.27,"endTime":147.72,"body":"would say, Oh, we're not in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":147.72,"endTime":151.2,"body":"big hurry. Let's let these other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":147.72,"endTime":151.2,"body":"people go first. I'm sure they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":151.2,"endTime":154.2,"body":"have more important places to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":151.2,"endTime":154.2,"body":"be. And then at some point, he'd"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":154.2,"endTime":157.29,"body":"say, alright, well, Fair's fair,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":154.2,"endTime":157.29,"body":"it's our turn, and he would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":157.29,"endTime":160.65,"body":"reach under the dash and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":157.29,"endTime":160.65,"body":"light would turn green. Yeah, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":160.65,"endTime":164.55,"body":"when I was five, but it went"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":160.65,"endTime":164.55,"body":"into like sixth and seventh and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":164.58,"endTime":170.52,"body":"eighth. At one point, my dad,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":164.58,"endTime":170.52,"body":"somewhat incredulously said,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":170.55,"endTime":174.9,"body":"You're old enough to realize"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":170.55,"endTime":174.9,"body":"that we don't have a green light"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":174.96,"endTime":178.56,"body":"button, right? It became a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":174.96,"endTime":178.56,"body":"developmental milestone is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":179.43,"endTime":183.99,"body":"worried about little Pj is he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":179.43,"endTime":183.99,"body":"still thinks at age 19, that I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":183.99,"endTime":189.18,"body":"can change the light. What it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":183.99,"endTime":189.18,"body":"got me thinking is all the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":189.18,"endTime":194.34,"body":"things that we teach kids were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":189.18,"endTime":194.34,"body":"either it's just easier to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":194.34,"endTime":196.98,"body":"simplify it because you don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":194.34,"endTime":196.98,"body":"want to deal with the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":196.98,"endTime":200.55,"body":"complexities, or more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":196.98,"endTime":200.55,"body":"importantly, they're not ready"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":200.58,"endTime":204.63,"body":"to learn the particular thing."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":200.58,"endTime":204.63,"body":"But the funny thing is, we do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":204.63,"endTime":206.58,"body":"that when we teach grabbed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":204.63,"endTime":206.58,"body":"classes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":206.61,"endTime":209.19,"body":"all the time, right? And I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":206.61,"endTime":209.19,"body":"have mixed feelings about it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":209.19,"endTime":213.15,"body":"But there are admittedly a lot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":209.19,"endTime":213.15,"body":"of things that I teach early on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":213.15,"endTime":217.05,"body":"in a stat sequence that later"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":213.15,"endTime":217.05,"body":"on, I have to walk back or later"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":217.05,"endTime":219.93,"body":"on, I sort of have to admit,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":217.05,"endTime":219.93,"body":"well, there's really more to the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":219.93,"endTime":222.36,"body":"story than that. And I find"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":219.93,"endTime":222.36,"body":"myself in that situation all the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":222.36,"endTime":223.17,"body":"time. Part of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":223.17,"endTime":227.04,"body":"problem is it really is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":223.17,"endTime":227.04,"body":"easier to teach something in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":227.04,"endTime":231.63,"body":"particular way. Now, it's not an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":227.04,"endTime":231.63,"body":"overt lie. Well, sometimes it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":231.63,"endTime":237.33,"body":"is. But it's a simplification"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":231.63,"endTime":237.33,"body":"picture in your mind's eye,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":237.33,"endTime":239.67,"body":"right? We always talk about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":237.33,"endTime":239.67,"body":"that. It's like what we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":239.67,"endTime":245.22,"body":"trying to do here or you pan"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":239.67,"endTime":245.22,"body":"back. The goal here is to, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":245.22,"endTime":248.43,"body":"it's a simplification, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":245.22,"endTime":248.43,"body":"here's part of the problem. We"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":248.43,"endTime":252.72,"body":"teach semester long classes, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":248.43,"endTime":252.72,"body":"do a little something. And then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":252.72,"endTime":257.13,"body":"I pass them off to Bower, Bower"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":252.72,"endTime":257.13,"body":"didn't know what I talked about,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":257.13,"endTime":260.28,"body":"because Heaven forbid we talk to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":257.13,"endTime":260.28,"body":"one another and have a cohesive"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":260.28,"endTime":265.41,"body":"curriculum. It starts getting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":260.28,"endTime":265.41,"body":"baked into the system. I don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":265.41,"endTime":269.31,"body":"go back a year later and say,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":265.41,"endTime":269.31,"body":"okay, all of us were together"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":269.31,"endTime":272.49,"body":"last year. And I described this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":269.31,"endTime":272.49,"body":"this way. Now, let's dig a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":272.49,"endTime":276.33,"body":"little bit deeper into it. Yeah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":272.49,"endTime":276.33,"body":"A funny example I had as I took"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":276.33,"endTime":281.22,"body":"a wonderful workshop years ago"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":276.33,"endTime":281.22,"body":"on the science of scientific"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":281.22,"endTime":285.6,"body":"writing, his name is Goldman and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":281.22,"endTime":285.6,"body":"he actually has a whole body of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":285.6,"endTime":290.58,"body":"work on how do you write well in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":285.6,"endTime":290.58,"body":"a scientific framework, and he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":290.58,"endTime":293.91,"body":"had a laugh out loud"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":290.58,"endTime":293.91,"body":"conversation about the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":293.91,"endTime":297.78,"body":"semicolon. Now, you and I have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":293.91,"endTime":297.78,"body":"worked a lot together. And you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.78,"endTime":301.41,"body":"and I have written together you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.78,"endTime":301.41,"body":"know that I have a very liberal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":301.41,"endTime":308.1,"body":"policy on the Oxford comma. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":301.41,"endTime":308.1,"body":"I love semicolons, he had this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":308.1,"endTime":312.12,"body":"thing where we should use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":308.1,"endTime":312.12,"body":"semicolons more. But when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":312.12,"endTime":315.15,"body":"they're introduced in middle"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":312.12,"endTime":315.15,"body":"school, we're not ready for it,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":315.21,"endTime":319.74,"body":"we're not ready to learn how to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":315.21,"endTime":319.74,"body":"properly use the semicolon. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":319.74,"endTime":323.46,"body":"so we're not taught it. But by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":319.74,"endTime":323.46,"body":"the time we are emotionally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":323.46,"endTime":326.64,"body":"ready to use the semicolon,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":323.46,"endTime":326.64,"body":"nobody teaches it anymore. It's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":326.64,"endTime":331.35,"body":"beyond, it's forgotten. It was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":326.64,"endTime":331.35,"body":"just a laugh out loud, funny"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":331.35,"endTime":334.89,"body":"conversation, because what he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":331.35,"endTime":334.89,"body":"did is tied it to kind of like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":334.89,"endTime":341.46,"body":"health class and your bodies are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":334.89,"endTime":341.46,"body":"changing. I think a really good"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":341.52,"endTime":344.64,"body":"example of that that is very,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":341.52,"endTime":344.64,"body":"very common. It's not just me"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":344.64,"endTime":348.3,"body":"and you it's very, very common"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":344.64,"endTime":348.3,"body":"is the first introduction to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":348.3,"endTime":353.07,"body":"multiple regression model. When"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":348.3,"endTime":353.07,"body":"we talk about Y and Y hat, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":353.07,"endTime":359.13,"body":"the residual E. And the sum of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":353.07,"endTime":359.13,"body":"the squared E's I almost every"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":359.13,"endTime":362.85,"body":"introductory class teaches in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":359.13,"endTime":362.85,"body":"way that the model doesn't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":362.85,"endTime":364.92,"body":"actually do it that way."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":365.04,"endTime":367.59,"body":"I know that when I teach"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":365.04,"endTime":367.59,"body":"regression, I do it very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":367.59,"endTime":370.92,"body":"colloquially, we've got some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":367.59,"endTime":370.92,"body":"points there. And we say, hey,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":370.92,"endTime":374.01,"body":"try a line. And what would the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":370.92,"endTime":374.01,"body":"predicted value? What would the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":374.01,"endTime":377.94,"body":"Y hat be for everybody with this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":374.01,"endTime":377.94,"body":"particular line? And how do we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":377.94,"endTime":381.27,"body":"gauge what the best fit line is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":377.94,"endTime":381.27,"body":"in terms of how far the actual"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":381.27,"endTime":384.45,"body":"points get above and below the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":381.27,"endTime":384.45,"body":"line, and we can't just talk"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":384.45,"endTime":387.51,"body":"about adding those up. And so we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":384.45,"endTime":387.51,"body":"talk about why we might square"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":387.51,"endTime":390.96,"body":"those and sum them up, we wiggle"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":387.51,"endTime":390.96,"body":"and jiggle until we get that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":390.96,"endTime":394.47,"body":"best fit line, that line that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":390.96,"endTime":394.47,"body":"minimizes the sum of squared"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":394.47,"endTime":399.75,"body":"vertical deviations of actual y"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":394.47,"endTime":399.75,"body":"values from predicted Y values"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":399.75,"endTime":404.46,"body":"of y's from y hats. And then in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":399.75,"endTime":404.46,"body":"the end, I'm saying, See,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":404.52,"endTime":409.59,"body":"everybody has a y, but everybody"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":404.52,"endTime":409.59,"body":"also has a y hat. And I'm seeing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":409.59,"endTime":412.95,"body":"all of this stuff, almost like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":409.59,"endTime":412.95,"body":"anthropomorphizing the process."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":414.72,"endTime":417.99,"body":"But in the end, that's more the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":414.72,"endTime":417.99,"body":"statistical puppet show and not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":417.99,"endTime":419.55,"body":"exactly what's going on, right?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":419.61,"endTime":423.93,"body":"With regression, in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":419.61,"endTime":423.93,"body":"fairness to us, you can do it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":423.93,"endTime":426.99,"body":"that way, when I teach it, I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":423.93,"endTime":426.99,"body":"almost like Oprah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":433.83,"endTime":439.44,"body":"You get a residual, residual, it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":433.83,"endTime":439.44,"body":"is true, we can do it that way."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":439.47,"endTime":442.8,"body":"Everybody has a y. Now everybody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":439.47,"endTime":442.8,"body":"has a y hat. And there's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":442.8,"endTime":446.22,"body":"distance between those. And we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":442.8,"endTime":446.22,"body":"take Y minus Y hat and get the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":446.25,"endTime":448.86,"body":"EES. And we gathered those all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":446.25,"endTime":448.86,"body":"together, blah, blah, blah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":448.92,"endTime":453.96,"body":"That's how we describe how we do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":448.92,"endTime":453.96,"body":"this. But the actual analytics,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":453.99,"endTime":457.77,"body":"that is the getting the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":453.99,"endTime":457.77,"body":"regression coefficients, we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":457.77,"endTime":461.85,"body":"do that entirely on covariance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":457.77,"endTime":461.85,"body":"matrices. Yeah. But if we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":461.85,"endTime":465.66,"body":"complete data, if you give me a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":461.85,"endTime":465.66,"body":"covariance matrix of your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":465.69,"endTime":469.59,"body":"outcome, and your predictors"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":465.69,"endTime":469.59,"body":"with no raw data at all, I can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":469.59,"endTime":472.35,"body":"do everything that we do in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":469.59,"endTime":472.35,"body":"regression model. And indeed,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":472.35,"endTime":476.64,"body":"however you do that yourself, it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":472.35,"endTime":476.64,"body":"is not doing these individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":476.64,"endTime":480.96,"body":"Why Why have E squared, adding"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":476.64,"endTime":480.96,"body":"them up? It's all the level of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":480.96,"endTime":484.56,"body":"the covariance matrix and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":480.96,"endTime":484.56,"body":"mean vector, that to me is kind"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":484.56,"endTime":489.33,"body":"of like the semi colon, you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":484.56,"endTime":489.33,"body":"not ready to think about x prime"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":489.33,"endTime":493.59,"body":"x inverse x prime y, when you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":489.33,"endTime":493.59,"body":"very first introduced to it is I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":493.59,"endTime":494.94,"body":"feel like Jack Nicholson,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":494.97,"endTime":498.75,"body":"you want answers? I"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":494.97,"endTime":498.75,"body":"think I'm entitled you want the"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":498.75,"endTime":501.27,"body":"truth, you can't handle the"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":498.75,"endTime":501.27,"body":"truth."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":503.01,"endTime":507.54,"body":"But the problem is, is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":503.01,"endTime":507.54,"body":"it gets baked in. And then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":507.54,"endTime":511.35,"body":"rarely, if ever, does somebody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":507.54,"endTime":511.35,"body":"come back and say, you know,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":511.35,"endTime":514.65,"body":"funny story, those individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":511.35,"endTime":514.65,"body":"observations and the individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":514.65,"endTime":517.08,"body":"reserves out those don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":514.65,"endTime":517.08,"body":"actually ever exist within the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":517.11,"endTime":520.95,"body":"confines of the program, we get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":517.11,"endTime":520.95,"body":"the variances of the residuals"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":520.98,"endTime":524.79,"body":"without ever computing the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":520.98,"endTime":524.79,"body":"individual residuals."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":524.82,"endTime":529.11,"body":"This is all a closed form"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":524.82,"endTime":529.11,"body":"system that is derived through"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":529.11,"endTime":532.74,"body":"some optimizations. It's not a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":529.11,"endTime":532.74,"body":"wiggle and jiggle optimization"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":532.74,"endTime":535.44,"body":"like we're accustomed to in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":532.74,"endTime":535.44,"body":"lot of iterative procedures. It"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":535.44,"endTime":538.62,"body":"is closed form, we do some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":535.44,"endTime":538.62,"body":"calculus, we go boom, here's the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":538.62,"endTime":543.21,"body":"formula that gives us that and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":538.62,"endTime":543.21,"body":"we never touch a Y hat. We never"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":543.21,"endTime":546.21,"body":"touch a residual. And yet, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":543.21,"endTime":546.21,"body":"keep talking about them as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":546.21,"endTime":548.79,"body":"though there's some critical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":546.21,"endTime":548.79,"body":"part of the actual process of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":548.79,"endTime":550.17,"body":"getting that line in the first"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":548.79,"endTime":550.17,"body":"place."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":550.2,"endTime":553.47,"body":"And I can make it even"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":550.2,"endTime":553.47,"body":"worse. Okay, please, you and I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":553.47,"endTime":557.88,"body":"both teach growth modeling."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":553.47,"endTime":557.88,"body":"We've had several episodes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":557.88,"endTime":562.53,"body":"related to growth curve"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":557.88,"endTime":562.53,"body":"analysis, I go full bore Oprah"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":562.56,"endTime":568.11,"body":"on the growth model is inter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":562.56,"endTime":568.11,"body":"individual differences in intra"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":568.38,"endTime":573.12,"body":"individual change, who I say"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":568.38,"endTime":573.12,"body":"each of you in the room has a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":573.12,"endTime":576.33,"body":"set of repeated measures. Some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":573.12,"endTime":576.33,"body":"people have three, some people"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":576.33,"endTime":578.97,"body":"have four, some people have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":576.33,"endTime":578.97,"body":"five, they're in a basket in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":578.97,"endTime":582.54,"body":"front of you. Now what I'm going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":578.97,"endTime":582.54,"body":"to have each of you do is fit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":582.57,"endTime":587.19,"body":"the line that best characterizes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":582.57,"endTime":587.19,"body":"your set of repeated measures."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":587.28,"endTime":590.67,"body":"Now in your basket is an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":587.28,"endTime":590.67,"body":"intercept in a slope. Now I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":590.67,"endTime":593.01,"body":"going to walk around the room"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":590.67,"endTime":593.01,"body":"and I'm going to gather all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":593.01,"endTime":596.91,"body":"those intercepts together. I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":593.01,"endTime":596.91,"body":"going to gather all those slopes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":596.91,"endTime":600.0,"body":"together and now I've got a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":596.91,"endTime":600.0,"body":"distribution of intercepts."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":600.0,"endTime":602.64,"body":"Epson, yeah, no, I don't know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":600.0,"endTime":602.64,"body":"what that is crap."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":602.669,"endTime":605.819,"body":"All of it is crap. And you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":602.669,"endTime":605.819,"body":"know what, I'm gonna do it till"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":605.819,"endTime":609.899,"body":"the day I die. I know that it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":605.819,"endTime":609.899,"body":"crap. I know that we don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":609.899,"endTime":613.289,"body":"literally do that. But you can't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":609.899,"endTime":613.289,"body":"handle the truth."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":614.429,"endTime":616.889,"body":"I would have liked to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":614.429,"endTime":616.889,"body":"have seen Oprah and Jack"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":616.889,"endTime":617.519,"body":"Nicholson."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":619.98,"endTime":625.29,"body":"slope, slope, you want a slope,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":619.98,"endTime":625.29,"body":"you can handle a slope."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":627.179,"endTime":629.369,"body":"But it makes total sense,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":627.179,"endTime":629.369,"body":"right? If you say, All right,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":629.369,"endTime":631.859,"body":"everybody, you've got your own"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":629.369,"endTime":631.859,"body":"data, Patrick, you have a bunch"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":631.859,"endTime":635.579,"body":"of repeated measures, I want you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":631.859,"endTime":635.579,"body":"to fit your line, go ahead, fit"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":635.579,"endTime":638.339,"body":"your line, use the regression"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":635.579,"endTime":638.339,"body":"skills we lied to you about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":642.059,"endTime":646.409,"body":"layers, get your slope, get your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":642.059,"endTime":646.409,"body":"intercept, you give them back to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":646.409,"endTime":649.349,"body":"me. And as you said, I'll put"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":646.409,"endTime":649.349,"body":"them back in a basket. I love"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":649.379,"endTime":652.259,"body":"the pedagogical value of that."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":649.379,"endTime":652.259,"body":"But you are totally right."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":652.259,"endTime":654.119,"body":"That's not how it really works."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":652.259,"endTime":654.119,"body":"It's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":654.15,"endTime":657.45,"body":"the same answer the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":654.15,"endTime":657.45,"body":"semi colon it gets baked in. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":657.45,"endTime":662.43,"body":"do my Oprah, as I'm talking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":657.45,"endTime":662.43,"body":"about inter individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":662.43,"endTime":665.76,"body":"variability in these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":662.43,"endTime":665.76,"body":"trajectories. Some people start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":665.76,"endTime":668.4,"body":"higher, some people start lower,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":665.76,"endTime":668.4,"body":"some people increase more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":668.4,"endTime":672.27,"body":"rapidly, some less rapidly. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":668.4,"endTime":672.27,"body":"then the big reveal, we can try"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":672.27,"endTime":676.68,"body":"to predict those. I too am not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":672.27,"endTime":676.68,"body":"going to change mostly because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":676.68,"endTime":679.53,"body":"I'm old and I can't be fired. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":676.68,"endTime":679.53,"body":"know the slides have already"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":679.53,"endTime":684.96,"body":"been made. Yeah, I mean, my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":679.53,"endTime":684.96,"body":"transparencies are doing just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":684.96,"endTime":685.38,"body":"fine."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":685.41,"endTime":686.28,"body":"I made the dittos."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":686.97,"endTime":690.63,"body":"But the problem is, is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":686.97,"endTime":690.63,"body":"you walk out of the class"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":690.66,"endTime":695.55,"body":"without an understanding of Oh,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":690.66,"endTime":695.55,"body":"funny story. Every time you've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":695.55,"endTime":698.64,"body":"heard somebody wax poetic about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":695.55,"endTime":698.64,"body":"individual variability and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":698.64,"endTime":701.88,"body":"developmental trajectories of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":698.64,"endTime":701.88,"body":"change over time, those do not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":701.91,"endTime":707.07,"body":"exist. Yeah, what we do is we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":701.91,"endTime":707.07,"body":"look at variances of intercepts,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":707.16,"endTime":712.26,"body":"variances of slopes means of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":707.16,"endTime":712.26,"body":"those covariance between the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":712.26,"endTime":716.82,"body":"two. But it's actually not only"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":712.26,"endTime":716.82,"body":"kind of like it is exactly the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":716.82,"endTime":720.45,"body":"same as the regression model,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":716.82,"endTime":720.45,"body":"where we talk about having the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":720.45,"endTime":724.71,"body":"variance of the residuals where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":720.45,"endTime":724.71,"body":"we never compute the residuals."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":724.95,"endTime":728.04,"body":"Here, it's even a little"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":724.95,"endTime":728.04,"body":"weirder, because we have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":728.04,"endTime":732.0,"body":"variance of the intercepts and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":728.04,"endTime":732.0,"body":"the slopes. When we never"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":732.0,"endTime":734.58,"body":"compute the intercepts and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":732.0,"endTime":734.58,"body":"slopes,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":734.61,"endTime":738.0,"body":"we tend to teach this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":734.61,"endTime":738.0,"body":"thing in a very forward way, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":738.0,"endTime":742.05,"body":"know, imagining we go from the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":738.0,"endTime":742.05,"body":"data to the lines, to the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":742.05,"endTime":745.11,"body":"characteristics of the lines,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":742.05,"endTime":745.11,"body":"the summary statistics, and then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":745.11,"endTime":747.99,"body":"doing fun things with those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":745.11,"endTime":747.99,"body":"lines. But it works almost"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":747.99,"endTime":751.95,"body":"completely in the opposite way"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":747.99,"endTime":751.95,"body":"that we actually have all of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":751.95,"endTime":755.04,"body":"summary stuff to start. And then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":751.95,"endTime":755.04,"body":"the question is, do we have a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":755.04,"endTime":759.06,"body":"reason? Do we have a need to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":755.04,"endTime":759.06,"body":"back off that and talk about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":759.06,"endTime":762.15,"body":"individual level things like in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":759.06,"endTime":762.15,"body":"regression, I don't have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":762.15,"endTime":764.76,"body":"people's residuals to start,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":762.15,"endTime":764.76,"body":"although I talk about it as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":764.76,"endTime":768.3,"body":"though I do I do the regression,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":764.76,"endTime":768.3,"body":"I fit it with that closed form"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":768.3,"endTime":772.62,"body":"process. And then I can ask what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":768.3,"endTime":772.62,"body":"residual each individual has, if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":772.62,"endTime":776.1,"body":"I'm interested in that, here we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":772.62,"endTime":776.1,"body":"are in a longitudinal setting."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":776.22,"endTime":778.86,"body":"But we have this model where we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":776.22,"endTime":778.86,"body":"say, oh, yeah, I know what the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":778.86,"endTime":781.92,"body":"average slope is, oh, yeah, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":778.86,"endTime":781.92,"body":"know what the variances of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":781.92,"endTime":785.01,"body":"slopes and the same thing for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":781.92,"endTime":785.01,"body":"intercepts. But now tell me what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":785.01,"endTime":787.53,"body":"that means. For an individual. I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":785.01,"endTime":787.53,"body":"don't even have that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":787.53,"endTime":790.89,"body":"information. It's not like I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":787.53,"endTime":790.89,"body":"look at how far their point is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":790.92,"endTime":794.37,"body":"above or below a line. I don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":790.92,"endTime":794.37,"body":"even have a line for that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":794.37,"endTime":794.94,"body":"individual."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":794.97,"endTime":798.3,"body":"And to be super clear,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":794.97,"endTime":798.3,"body":"if you're yelling at your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":798.3,"endTime":801.42,"body":"steering wheel while listening"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":798.3,"endTime":801.42,"body":"to this and saying, but you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":801.42,"endTime":804.36,"body":"get residuals estimates and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":801.42,"endTime":804.36,"body":"regression, Oh, of course, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":804.36,"endTime":807.45,"body":"can't. That's diagnostics,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":804.36,"endTime":807.45,"body":"right. We have residuals and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":807.45,"endTime":810.72,"body":"studentized residuals and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":807.45,"endTime":810.72,"body":"Studentized deleted residuals,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":810.75,"endTime":814.77,"body":"we can get distributions of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":810.75,"endTime":814.77,"body":"residuals, we can save them out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":814.77,"endTime":818.67,"body":"and subset them, we can look for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":814.77,"endTime":818.67,"body":"extreme residuals and outlier"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":818.67,"endTime":823.2,"body":"detection. But the big point is,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":818.67,"endTime":823.2,"body":"we have to do extra work to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":823.2,"endTime":828.48,"body":"those, they do not come out of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":823.2,"endTime":828.48,"body":"the standard x prime x inverse x"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":828.48,"endTime":832.98,"body":"prime y, where we get all of our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":828.48,"endTime":832.98,"body":"usual anova tables and our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":833.01,"endTime":836.04,"body":"regression coefficients and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":833.01,"endTime":836.04,"body":"standardized coefficients and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":836.04,"endTime":838.92,"body":"all of that. And that's actually"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":836.04,"endTime":838.92,"body":"where I want to pivot to is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":838.92,"endTime":843.51,"body":"going to the growth model. There"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":838.92,"endTime":843.51,"body":"is a reason why we teach it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":843.54,"endTime":846.03,"body":"about everybody has an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":843.54,"endTime":846.03,"body":"intercept, and everybody has a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":846.03,"endTime":849.42,"body":"slope. First of all, that's the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":846.03,"endTime":849.42,"body":"green light button in my dad's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":849.42,"endTime":855.54,"body":"car, which is you're not ready"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":849.42,"endTime":855.54,"body":"to think about lambda sy lambda"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":855.54,"endTime":859.77,"body":"prime plus theta apps to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":855.54,"endTime":859.77,"body":"sigma theta hat. It turns out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":859.8,"endTime":863.73,"body":"that even though we do not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":859.8,"endTime":863.73,"body":"estimate individual intercepts"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":863.73,"endTime":868.2,"body":"and individual slopes, whether"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":863.73,"endTime":868.2,"body":"it be an FCM, or an MLM growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":868.2,"endTime":873.06,"body":"model to be super clear, they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":868.2,"endTime":873.06,"body":"never exist. In an analysis you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":873.06,"endTime":877.92,"body":"want to know a super weirdo"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":873.06,"endTime":877.92,"body":"thing. All my Oprah you get a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":877.92,"endTime":882.78,"body":"trajectory you get a trajectory."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":877.92,"endTime":882.78,"body":"If you have complete data, I can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":882.78,"endTime":886.95,"body":"estimate the means and variances"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":882.78,"endTime":886.95,"body":"and covariances of individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":886.95,"endTime":890.82,"body":"trajectories based solely on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":886.95,"endTime":890.82,"body":"covariance matrix and mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":890.82,"endTime":892.77,"body":"vector of the repeated measures."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":892.8,"endTime":894.9,"body":"You don't have to see any"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":892.8,"endTime":894.9,"body":"raw data at all It"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":894.899,"endTime":898.379,"body":"rubs a little bit of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":894.899,"endTime":898.379,"body":"the magic off the growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":898.409,"endTime":903.509,"body":"modeling lamp which is Wait a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":898.409,"endTime":903.509,"body":"minute, you talked about inter"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":903.509,"endTime":906.539,"body":"individual differences in intra"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":903.509,"endTime":906.539,"body":"individual change and blah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":906.539,"endTime":909.419,"body":"blah, blah, I need a covariance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":906.539,"endTime":909.419,"body":"matrix. And and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":910.35,"endTime":912.21,"body":"you never saw an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":910.35,"endTime":912.21,"body":"individual, you never saw an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":912.21,"endTime":912.93,"body":"individual."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":913.95,"endTime":917.82,"body":"Here's the pivot I want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":913.95,"endTime":917.82,"body":"to make, just as there are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":917.82,"endTime":921.54,"body":"reasons why we want a residual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":917.82,"endTime":921.54,"body":"out of the multiple regression"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":921.54,"endTime":924.75,"body":"model, to do everything that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":921.54,"endTime":924.75,"body":"just talked about, I argue that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":924.75,"endTime":928.83,"body":"there are many reasons why it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":924.75,"endTime":928.83,"body":"incredibly helpful to also get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":928.86,"endTime":932.49,"body":"an estimate of the trajectories"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":928.86,"endTime":932.49,"body":"from the model. Because just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":932.49,"endTime":936.48,"body":"like the regression, we don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":932.49,"endTime":936.48,"body":"calculate individual intercepts"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":936.48,"endTime":940.38,"body":"and slopes when doing a standard"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":936.48,"endTime":940.38,"body":"growth model. But we can use"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":940.38,"endTime":945.0,"body":"that model to get estimates of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":940.38,"endTime":945.0,"body":"the intercepts and the slopes."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":945.03,"endTime":945.54,"body":"Well, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":945.539,"endTime":948.479,"body":"am going to want to hear"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":945.539,"endTime":948.479,"body":"this because there are some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":948.479,"endTime":951.149,"body":"places where I feel Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":948.479,"endTime":951.149,"body":"absolutely. That makes sense."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":951.149,"endTime":953.609,"body":"And then there are other places"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":951.149,"endTime":953.609,"body":"where I go, Wait, I thought"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":953.609,"endTime":956.759,"body":"that's what we literally try to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":953.609,"endTime":956.759,"body":"avoid with some of these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":956.759,"endTime":960.089,"body":"particular models. You know,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":956.759,"endTime":960.089,"body":"when I talk about CFA, for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.089,"endTime":963.479,"body":"example, confirmatory factor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.089,"endTime":963.479,"body":"analysis, I will often talk"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":963.479,"endTime":967.679,"body":"about having a model that is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":963.479,"endTime":967.679,"body":"representation of the reason"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":967.679,"endTime":970.709,"body":"variables relate according some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":967.679,"endTime":970.709,"body":"particular theory, or that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":970.709,"endTime":973.589,"body":"theory involves one or more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":970.709,"endTime":973.589,"body":"underlying latent variables, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":973.589,"endTime":977.129,"body":"students will invariably say, so"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":973.589,"endTime":977.129,"body":"then we get scores for those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":977.129,"endTime":979.619,"body":"factors. First of all, they"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":977.129,"endTime":979.619,"body":"don't even understand right off"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":979.619,"endTime":982.499,"body":"the bat that we don't have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":979.619,"endTime":982.499,"body":"scores for those, and I remind"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":982.499,"endTime":986.189,"body":"them, their latent That's what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":982.499,"endTime":986.189,"body":"the word laden means. But then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":986.189,"endTime":988.079,"body":"somehow, at the end of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":986.189,"endTime":988.079,"body":"process, they're like, okay,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":988.079,"endTime":990.989,"body":"it's okay. Okay, so now we get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":988.079,"endTime":990.989,"body":"scores. So we can use those for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":990.989,"endTime":994.859,"body":"other things? And my answer is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":990.989,"endTime":994.859,"body":"usually no, usually, we don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":994.859,"endTime":998.309,"body":"need to. So here we are in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":994.859,"endTime":998.309,"body":"latent growth model setting. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":998.309,"endTime":1000.799,"body":"I know that we could talk about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":998.309,"endTime":1000.799,"body":"things in a multi level model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1000.829,"endTime":1004.849,"body":"setting as well. And I fit a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1000.829,"endTime":1004.849,"body":"growth model, I learned so much"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1004.849,"endTime":1007.309,"body":"just by getting these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1004.849,"endTime":1007.309,"body":"characteristics of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1007.309,"endTime":1010.879,"body":"intercepts and slopes and how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1007.309,"endTime":1010.879,"body":"they covary and how things might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1010.879,"endTime":1013.129,"body":"predict them. So help me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1010.879,"endTime":1013.129,"body":"understand under what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1013.129,"endTime":1017.029,"body":"circumstances getting estimates"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1013.129,"endTime":1017.029,"body":"becomes useful in the way maybe"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1017.029,"endTime":1019.519,"body":"that getting residuals in a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1017.029,"endTime":1019.519,"body":"regression are useful. It"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1019.519,"endTime":1020.059,"body":"depends."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1020.059,"endTime":1025.189,"body":"Are you a libertarian"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1020.059,"endTime":1025.189,"body":"or a socialist? Wow. You're just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1025.189,"endTime":1026.059,"body":"the answer the question."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1027.5,"endTime":1029.87,"body":"I don't have to answer the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1027.5,"endTime":1029.87,"body":"question. You can't make me"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1029.87,"endTime":1032.51,"body":"answer the question, because my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1029.87,"endTime":1032.51,"body":"freedom it is my right not to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1032.51,"endTime":1033.26,"body":"answer, you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1033.259,"endTime":1036.229,"body":"a libertarian."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1033.259,"endTime":1036.229,"body":"Excellent. Let's pan back a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1036.229,"endTime":1039.559,"body":"little bit. And I'm going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1036.229,"endTime":1039.559,"body":"make up some numbers as we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1039.559,"endTime":1043.099,"body":"a hypothetical example. So we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1039.559,"endTime":1043.099,"body":"have a sample of 200 people, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1043.099,"endTime":1045.889,"body":"have five repeated measures."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1043.099,"endTime":1045.889,"body":"Now, anything that we talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1045.889,"endTime":1049.249,"body":"about, were almost always in a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1045.889,"endTime":1049.249,"body":"longitudinal design, different"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1049.249,"endTime":1052.189,"body":"people have different numbers of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1049.249,"endTime":1052.189,"body":"measures. So maybe have some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1052.189,"endTime":1055.009,"body":"have three, some have four, some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1052.189,"endTime":1055.009,"body":"have five, whatever, as you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1055.009,"endTime":1059.269,"body":"listening picture in your mind's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1055.009,"endTime":1059.269,"body":"eye, your own application, where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1059.299,"endTime":1062.779,"body":"you ever retained your data"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1059.299,"endTime":1062.779,"body":"matrix, where you have five"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1062.779,"endTime":1066.109,"body":"assessments on your outcome. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1062.779,"endTime":1066.109,"body":"let's talk about development of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1066.109,"endTime":1069.349,"body":"reading skills in children. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1066.109,"endTime":1069.349,"body":"we have something that we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1069.349,"endTime":1073.249,"body":"believe to systematically"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1069.349,"endTime":1073.249,"body":"increase on average over time,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1073.249,"endTime":1076.339,"body":"but there's probably individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1073.249,"endTime":1076.339,"body":"variability around if you're a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1076.339,"endTime":1080.899,"body":"libertarian, which I was when I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1076.339,"endTime":1080.899,"body":"started learning these growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1080.899,"endTime":1085.789,"body":"models, which do an OLS"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1080.899,"endTime":1085.789,"body":"regression for each individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1085.789,"endTime":1089.839,"body":"separately. Now, I was all about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1085.789,"endTime":1089.839,"body":"this in early days. Oh, yeah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1089.839,"endTime":1093.859,"body":"And it really was a libertarian"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1089.839,"endTime":1093.859,"body":"kind of thing. These are my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1093.859,"endTime":1098.329,"body":"repeated measures. I want the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1093.859,"endTime":1098.329,"body":"line that best characterizes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1098.329,"endTime":1102.559,"body":"these person one has five"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1098.329,"endTime":1102.559,"body":"repeated measures on reading"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1102.559,"endTime":1107.629,"body":"ability, we're going to regress"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1102.559,"endTime":1107.629,"body":"reading ability on time. Sure."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1107.689,"endTime":1112.339,"body":"01234 is the predictor picture a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1107.689,"endTime":1112.339,"body":"little scatterplot with your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1112.339,"endTime":1115.669,"body":"five repeated measures, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1112.339,"endTime":1115.669,"body":"we're going to fit a line that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1115.669,"endTime":1119.809,"body":"best characterizes those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1115.669,"endTime":1119.809,"body":"repeated measures. Well, does my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1119.809,"endTime":1123.769,"body":"line impact your line? No, not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1119.809,"endTime":1123.769,"body":"at all. This is an individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1123.769,"endTime":1126.709,"body":"regression. That's the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1123.769,"endTime":1126.709,"body":"libertarian aspect to it. I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1126.709,"endTime":1129.859,"body":"not imposing any functional form"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1126.709,"endTime":1129.859,"body":"that's governed by anybody else."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1129.859,"endTime":1134.449,"body":"Whatever you do is your right"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1129.859,"endTime":1134.449,"body":"your freedom. You be who you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1134.449,"endTime":1137.809,"body":"are, we get a regression for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1134.449,"endTime":1137.809,"body":"person one, we get a regression"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1137.809,"endTime":1141.979,"body":"line for Person two. I'm a SAS"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1137.809,"endTime":1141.979,"body":"guy. So I use SAS terminology,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1141.979,"endTime":1146.689,"body":"but you do whatever your home"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1141.979,"endTime":1146.689,"body":"program is, you do proc Reg, by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1146.719,"endTime":1151.249,"body":"ID, we're going to do 200 Or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1146.719,"endTime":1151.249,"body":"Well, less regressions. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1151.249,"endTime":1153.949,"body":"we're going to gather together"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1151.249,"endTime":1153.949,"body":"all the intercepts and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1153.949,"endTime":1158.599,"body":"slopes. I actually wrote a paper"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1153.949,"endTime":1158.599,"body":"it was led by a wonderful"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1158.629,"endTime":1163.069,"body":"scientist named Madeline"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1158.629,"endTime":1163.069,"body":"Carrick. And RJ worth was also"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1163.069,"endTime":1168.049,"body":"on this. We'll put this in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1163.069,"endTime":1168.049,"body":"show notes. She designed a SAS"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1168.049,"endTime":1171.199,"body":"macro that does this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1168.049,"endTime":1171.199,"body":"automatically. You just put what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1171.199,"endTime":1174.289,"body":"is your outcome, what is your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1171.199,"endTime":1174.289,"body":"time, and it does all the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1174.289,"endTime":1176.629,"body":"regressions and pulls them all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1174.289,"endTime":1176.629,"body":"together. It does graphics,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1176.629,"endTime":1180.409,"body":"things like that. So this is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1176.629,"endTime":1180.409,"body":"very easy to do. So this is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1180.409,"endTime":1184.279,"body":"Oprah Winfrey, you get an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1180.409,"endTime":1184.279,"body":"intercept, you get an intercept."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1184.309,"endTime":1188.179,"body":"What is super important to get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1184.309,"endTime":1188.179,"body":"across here is my intercept and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1188.179,"endTime":1192.589,"body":"slope is not impacted by your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1188.179,"endTime":1192.589,"body":"intercept and slope. That's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1192.589,"endTime":1195.799,"body":"right, because it's only"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1192.589,"endTime":1195.799,"body":"informed by your data, nobody"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1195.799,"endTime":1196.819,"body":"else's data anywhere."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1196.849,"endTime":1199.969,"body":"That's the libertarian."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1196.849,"endTime":1199.969,"body":"What about the socialist one?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1199.999,"endTime":1204.619,"body":"Well, we're gonna spend a whole"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1199.999,"endTime":1204.619,"body":"nother episode talking about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1204.649,"endTime":1208.309,"body":"empirical Bayes estimation and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1204.649,"endTime":1208.309,"body":"Factor score estimation, because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1208.309,"endTime":1211.429,"body":"it's a fascinating topic in and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1208.309,"endTime":1211.429,"body":"of itself. But if you run a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1211.429,"endTime":1214.939,"body":"growth model in the structural"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1211.429,"endTime":1214.939,"body":"equation model, and we talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1214.939,"endTime":1219.379,"body":"about predicted scores as Factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1214.939,"endTime":1219.379,"body":"scores, you run it in the multi"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1219.379,"endTime":1223.369,"body":"level model, and we talk about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1219.379,"endTime":1223.369,"body":"them as a thing called empirical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1223.369,"endTime":1227.839,"body":"Bayes estimation, we're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1223.369,"endTime":1227.839,"body":"get individual estimates of your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1227.839,"endTime":1231.349,"body":"intercept and of your slope, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1227.839,"endTime":1231.349,"body":"they're going to be a joint"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1231.349,"endTime":1236.989,"body":"combination of your repeated"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1231.349,"endTime":1236.989,"body":"measures, but also the summary"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1236.989,"endTime":1242.479,"body":"statistics of the sample as a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1236.989,"endTime":1242.479,"body":"whole. And so now, my intercept"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1242.479,"endTime":1247.429,"body":"and slope are impart informed by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1242.479,"endTime":1247.429,"body":"the means and the variances of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1247.429,"endTime":1250.309,"body":"everybody else's trajectory,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1250.369,"endTime":1253.849,"body":"in the socialist view of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1250.369,"endTime":1253.849,"body":"this thing, the intercept and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1253.849,"endTime":1258.589,"body":"slope, they are factors. And in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1253.849,"endTime":1258.589,"body":"order to get scores associated"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1258.589,"endTime":1261.079,"body":"with those, and really what we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1258.589,"endTime":1261.079,"body":"mean is score estimates, because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1261.079,"endTime":1264.049,"body":"we're not going to be able to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1261.079,"endTime":1264.049,"body":"get some true intercept and some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1264.049,"endTime":1267.109,"body":"true slope. In order to do that,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1264.049,"endTime":1267.109,"body":"I actually need the model and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1267.109,"endTime":1270.559,"body":"the model itself couldn't have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1267.109,"endTime":1270.559,"body":"existed without the information"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1270.559,"endTime":1274.099,"body":"from everybody to get what that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1270.559,"endTime":1274.099,"body":"model is in the first place. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1274.099,"endTime":1277.699,"body":"so now, when you estimate my"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1274.099,"endTime":1277.699,"body":"Factor score for an intercept,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1277.699,"endTime":1279.949,"body":"and a slope and your Factor"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1277.699,"endTime":1279.949,"body":"score for an intercept and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1279.949,"endTime":1282.979,"body":"slope, it could never have been"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1279.949,"endTime":1282.979,"body":"done without the information"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1282.979,"endTime":1285.799,"body":"from everybody feeding into that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1282.979,"endTime":1285.799,"body":"model in the first place. I am"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1285.8,"endTime":1288.92,"body":"very fortunate to have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1285.8,"endTime":1288.92,"body":"a colleague of mine here at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1288.92,"endTime":1291.98,"body":"Carolina, who actually was the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1288.92,"endTime":1291.98,"body":"guy who hired me back in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1291.98,"endTime":1297.23,"body":"day, but Dave Ellison, I gave a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1291.98,"endTime":1297.23,"body":"talk to the area, and I did a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1297.23,"endTime":1300.98,"body":"libertarian kind of view on the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1297.23,"endTime":1300.98,"body":"individual trajectory"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1300.98,"endTime":1305.96,"body":"estimation. And he, over time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1300.98,"endTime":1305.96,"body":"has really drawn me to these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1305.96,"endTime":1309.38,"body":"empirical Bayes estimates,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1305.96,"endTime":1309.38,"body":"because to me, it just seemed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1309.38,"endTime":1313.58,"body":"inherently unfair, that your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1309.38,"endTime":1313.58,"body":"trajectory would somehow impact"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1313.58,"endTime":1317.06,"body":"my trajectory. Yeah, there are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1313.58,"endTime":1317.06,"body":"many reasons why you would want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1317.06,"endTime":1320.99,"body":"to do exactly that. There's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1317.06,"endTime":1320.99,"body":"thing called a shrunken"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1321.02,"endTime":1324.71,"body":"estimate. And that is, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1321.02,"endTime":1324.71,"body":"farther away you are the more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1324.71,"endTime":1329.93,"body":"sparseness that you have in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1324.71,"endTime":1329.93,"body":"data, you're pulled back toward"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1329.93,"endTime":1332.81,"body":"the mean, right? It's like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1329.93,"endTime":1332.81,"body":"whatever the gangster movie, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1332.81,"endTime":1337.85,"body":"tried to leave, and they pull"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1332.81,"endTime":1337.85,"body":"you back in whatever it is. Just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1337.85,"endTime":1338.03,"body":"when I"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1338.03,"endTime":1341.21,"body":"thought I was out, they"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1338.03,"endTime":1341.21,"body":"pull me back in."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1343.82,"endTime":1347.93,"body":"But you're drawn back"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1343.82,"endTime":1347.93,"body":"to the mean. And that always"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1347.93,"endTime":1353.27,"body":"bothered me deeply. But what you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1347.93,"endTime":1353.27,"body":"conceptualize is, look, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1353.27,"endTime":1358.76,"body":"hooked your wagon to a donkey,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1353.27,"endTime":1358.76,"body":"that you are sampling from a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1358.76,"endTime":1364.34,"body":"homogeneous population that is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1358.76,"endTime":1364.34,"body":"governed by some growth process,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1364.43,"endTime":1367.1,"body":"and you're observing individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1364.43,"endTime":1367.1,"body":"variability in those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1367.1,"endTime":1372.56,"body":"trajectories around that growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1367.1,"endTime":1372.56,"body":"process. And logically, it makes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1372.56,"endTime":1377.24,"body":"perfect sense to use the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1372.56,"endTime":1377.24,"body":"information about the sample"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1377.27,"endTime":1381.59,"body":"when you're estimating these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1377.27,"endTime":1381.59,"body":"individual trajectories. And so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1381.59,"endTime":1386.21,"body":"just know that if you do an OLS"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1381.59,"endTime":1386.21,"body":"trajectory estimate, that's each"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1386.21,"endTime":1390.08,"body":"case, in isolation of all other"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1386.21,"endTime":1390.08,"body":"cases, if you get a Factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1390.08,"endTime":1393.83,"body":"score, or an empirical Bayes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1390.08,"endTime":1393.83,"body":"estimate out of a model that you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1393.83,"endTime":1397.85,"body":"fit into the data, that's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1393.83,"endTime":1397.85,"body":"joint contribution of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1397.85,"endTime":1401.03,"body":"individual data and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1397.85,"endTime":1401.03,"body":"characteristics of the sample."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1401.09,"endTime":1404.51,"body":"And I'll tell you what, if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1401.09,"endTime":1404.51,"body":"there's this libertarian inside"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1404.51,"endTime":1407.75,"body":"you that is bothered by that, it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1404.51,"endTime":1407.75,"body":"would have to bother you with z"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1407.75,"endTime":1411.32,"body":"scores. Also, because we cannot"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1407.75,"endTime":1411.32,"body":"compute a z score without"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1411.32,"endTime":1414.74,"body":"knowing all the rest of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1411.32,"endTime":1414.74,"body":"scores and the distribution to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1414.74,"endTime":1417.26,"body":"figure out do I have a high Z"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1414.74,"endTime":1417.26,"body":"score? Do I have a low Z score?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1417.26,"endTime":1420.65,"body":"So the idea of you doing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1417.26,"endTime":1420.65,"body":"something in reference to all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1420.65,"endTime":1424.79,"body":"the other information is hard"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1420.65,"endTime":1424.79,"body":"coded in everything we do. From"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1424.79,"endTime":1427.46,"body":"the very first course it doesn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1424.79,"endTime":1427.46,"body":"bother me,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1427.579,"endTime":1430.279,"body":"again, going back to a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1427.579,"endTime":1430.279,"body":"one predictor regression where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1430.279,"endTime":1434.989,"body":"you get the residuals out, yeah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1430.279,"endTime":1434.989,"body":"you have Y minus Y hat, Y hat is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1434.989,"endTime":1438.919,"body":"based on x prime x inverse x"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1434.989,"endTime":1438.919,"body":"prime. Why? I mean, it's the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1438.919,"endTime":1441.439,"body":"same gig totally. Here's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1438.919,"endTime":1441.439,"body":"something that's really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1441.439,"endTime":1445.939,"body":"important. It is a double edged"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1441.439,"endTime":1445.939,"body":"sword on this. We are not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1445.939,"endTime":1449.929,"body":"arguing against the OLS"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1445.939,"endTime":1449.929,"body":"estimates, because what is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1449.929,"endTime":1454.489,"body":"trailing edge of getting a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1449.929,"endTime":1454.489,"body":"Factor score or an empirical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1454.489,"endTime":1458.539,"body":"Bayes estimate from a model?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1454.489,"endTime":1458.539,"body":"Well, those means and those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1458.539,"endTime":1462.979,"body":"variances that you're using for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1458.539,"endTime":1462.979,"body":"the sample to impart inform your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1462.979,"endTime":1467.599,"body":"individual trajectory estimate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1462.979,"endTime":1467.599,"body":"are based on a model that you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1467.599,"endTime":1472.339,"body":"defined. What if there's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1467.599,"endTime":1472.339,"body":"subset of individuals who are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1472.339,"endTime":1476.869,"body":"governed by a different growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1472.339,"endTime":1476.869,"body":"function, who what we want you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1476.869,"endTime":1480.349,"body":"to think about is what are you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1476.869,"endTime":1480.349,"body":"trying to achieve when you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1480.349,"endTime":1483.799,"body":"consider each of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1480.349,"endTime":1483.799,"body":"approaches in isolation? And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1483.799,"endTime":1486.889,"body":"indeed, I gotta tell you in my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1483.799,"endTime":1486.889,"body":"own work, I use both a lot of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1486.889,"endTime":1490.909,"body":"times you know, what I'll do is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1486.889,"endTime":1490.909,"body":"go back to the 200 person five"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1490.909,"endTime":1494.479,"body":"time point example. I don't know"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1490.909,"endTime":1494.479,"body":"what your workflow is on this,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1494.479,"endTime":1500.149,"body":"Greg, but what I often do is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1494.479,"endTime":1500.149,"body":"before I fit any models before I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1500.149,"endTime":1504.199,"body":"consider whether to do an SEM or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1500.149,"endTime":1504.199,"body":"an MLM or to consider to do a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1504.199,"endTime":1507.829,"body":"linear or quadratic or whatever"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1504.199,"endTime":1507.829,"body":"it might be, I will do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1507.859,"endTime":1512.509,"body":"individual regressions, get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1507.859,"endTime":1512.509,"body":"individual trajectory estimates"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1512.569,"endTime":1518.359,"body":"and plot them one person at a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1512.569,"endTime":1518.359,"body":"time. And I will page down case"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1518.359,"endTime":1523.159,"body":"by case, and just see what the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1518.359,"endTime":1523.159,"body":"data look like with that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1523.159,"endTime":1525.709,"body":"individual line. And they're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1523.159,"endTime":1525.709,"body":"going to go up and they're going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1525.709,"endTime":1527.749,"body":"to go down, and they're going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1525.709,"endTime":1527.749,"body":"tilt and they're going to do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1527.749,"endTime":1533.149,"body":"whatever that they do. But it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1527.749,"endTime":1533.149,"body":"a model three insight into what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1533.149,"endTime":1536.809,"body":"am I repeated measures look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1533.149,"endTime":1536.809,"body":"like? It's just orienting to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1536.809,"endTime":1540.589,"body":"data, then a lot of times, I'll"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1536.809,"endTime":1540.589,"body":"just hold the page down key. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1540.589,"endTime":1544.009,"body":"it's like one of those old"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1540.589,"endTime":1544.009,"body":"degiro type movies, right, where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1544.009,"endTime":1548.329,"body":"it's like, man doing somersault."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1544.009,"endTime":1548.329,"body":"And a lot of times, it's like,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1548.359,"endTime":1551.479,"body":"oh, okay, I see most of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1548.359,"endTime":1551.479,"body":"are linear. I see most of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1551.479,"endTime":1555.319,"body":"are going up and down in some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1551.479,"endTime":1555.319,"body":"generally random way. But a lot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1555.319,"endTime":1558.949,"body":"of times, you can say, Wow, some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1555.319,"endTime":1558.949,"body":"of these look like they're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1558.949,"endTime":1562.459,"body":"linear. And some of these look"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1558.949,"endTime":1562.459,"body":"like a line may not be a good"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1562.459,"endTime":1566.149,"body":"estimate. Yeah, it's no model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1562.459,"endTime":1566.149,"body":"fitting, it's just okay. Maybe"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1566.149,"endTime":1569.629,"body":"this is a reflection of my own"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1566.149,"endTime":1569.629,"body":"personality. It's orienting to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1569.629,"endTime":1571.099,"body":"the enemy on the field,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1571.129,"endTime":1575.239,"body":"sir. Overwatch reports"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1571.129,"endTime":1575.239,"body":"and F 14 Tomcat is airborne and"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1575.239,"endTime":1579.229,"body":"on course for our position."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1575.239,"endTime":1579.229,"body":"Mavericks."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1581.69,"endTime":1583.85,"body":"There's so many ways you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1581.69,"endTime":1583.85,"body":"could have said that other than"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1583.85,"endTime":1588.02,"body":"that, yeah, yeah. You know, if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1583.85,"endTime":1588.02,"body":"we think about modeling as this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1588.02,"endTime":1591.05,"body":"endeavor that we go through,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1588.02,"endTime":1591.05,"body":"there are some people who might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1591.05,"endTime":1594.62,"body":"be ill at ease with what you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1591.05,"endTime":1594.62,"body":"just described, some people"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1594.62,"endTime":1597.92,"body":"might think that that's fishing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1594.62,"endTime":1597.92,"body":"through the data to get a sense"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1597.92,"endTime":1600.41,"body":"of what the growth process is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1597.92,"endTime":1600.41,"body":"like. And then subsequently,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1600.41,"endTime":1603.86,"body":"you've had a growth process to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1600.41,"endTime":1603.86,"body":"see like how well it fits like,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1603.86,"endTime":1606.44,"body":"well, of course, you picked it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1603.86,"endTime":1606.44,"body":"to fit that. On the other hand,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1606.47,"endTime":1610.52,"body":"I think it's grounding in terms"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1606.47,"endTime":1610.52,"body":"of am I even barking up the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1610.52,"endTime":1614.24,"body":"right tree here and thinking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1610.52,"endTime":1614.24,"body":"about this, I think it is a very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1614.24,"endTime":1617.45,"body":"reasonable first step to, quote,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1614.24,"endTime":1617.45,"body":"look at your data. The trick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1617.45,"endTime":1620.93,"body":"here is that you mean looking at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1617.45,"endTime":1620.93,"body":"some description of your data,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1620.99,"endTime":1624.14,"body":"you took the spaghetti plot, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1620.99,"endTime":1624.14,"body":"you broke it out into one piece"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1624.14,"endTime":1626.66,"body":"of spaghetti at a time as you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1624.14,"endTime":1626.66,"body":"went page down, page down, page"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1626.66,"endTime":1630.14,"body":"down, we can imagine all of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1626.66,"endTime":1630.14,"body":"those superimposed onto a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1630.14,"endTime":1633.83,"body":"particular plot. I think it's a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1630.14,"endTime":1633.83,"body":"very reasonable first activity,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1633.86,"endTime":1636.77,"body":"it would be like if you had no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1633.86,"endTime":1636.77,"body":"variance in a variable, why"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1636.77,"endTime":1638.84,"body":"would you try to predict it?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1636.77,"endTime":1638.84,"body":"Well, let's take a look at the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1638.84,"endTime":1641.48,"body":"variance of a variable. We're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1638.84,"endTime":1641.48,"body":"taking a look at the nature of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1641.48,"endTime":1643.64,"body":"the growth to try and see"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1641.48,"endTime":1643.64,"body":"whether or not it's even"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1643.64,"endTime":1647.51,"body":"reasonable to talk about growth"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1643.64,"endTime":1647.51,"body":"as a process that describes"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1647.51,"endTime":1648.56,"body":"what's going on. I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1648.56,"endTime":1652.25,"body":"would never use these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1648.56,"endTime":1652.25,"body":"individual OLS trajectories to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1652.25,"endTime":1655.4,"body":"guide the model that I'm going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1652.25,"endTime":1655.4,"body":"to fit. Sure. But what it is, is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1655.4,"endTime":1658.73,"body":"it's like a data screening"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1655.4,"endTime":1658.73,"body":"device. Yeah, we should all be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1658.73,"endTime":1662.09,"body":"looking at univariate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1658.73,"endTime":1662.09,"body":"distributions and bivariate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1662.09,"endTime":1665.87,"body":"distributions and potential"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1662.09,"endTime":1665.87,"body":"outliers, before we ever fit a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1665.87,"endTime":1669.98,"body":"model. Yeah. And you know, where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1665.87,"endTime":1669.98,"body":"I see the danger is not Oh, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1669.98,"endTime":1673.1,"body":"knew it was a linear the whole"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1669.98,"endTime":1673.1,"body":"time, I'm going to do a series"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1673.1,"endTime":1677.81,"body":"of likelihood ratio tests as I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1673.1,"endTime":1677.81,"body":"build functions anyway. So I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1677.81,"endTime":1682.07,"body":"think that's a moot point as I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1677.81,"endTime":1682.07,"body":"never gonna be parking or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1682.1,"endTime":1688.01,"body":"parking or parking or whatever."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1682.1,"endTime":1688.01,"body":"The bigger danger, and I have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1688.01,"endTime":1691.55,"body":"found this in my own work as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1688.01,"endTime":1691.55,"body":"well, is you go straight to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1691.55,"endTime":1696.35,"body":"growth model without doing this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1691.55,"endTime":1696.35,"body":"initial step. And oh, my gosh,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1696.35,"endTime":1699.17,"body":"your growth model can cloak a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1696.35,"endTime":1699.17,"body":"problem in a way that you would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1699.17,"endTime":1703.22,"body":"never know was there, you fit an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1699.17,"endTime":1703.22,"body":"intercept, only you add a line,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1703.22,"endTime":1706.88,"body":"you add a curve, you do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1703.22,"endTime":1706.88,"body":"likelihood ratio test, you back"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1706.88,"endTime":1710.9,"body":"up and say of all the options,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1706.88,"endTime":1710.9,"body":"linear is the best fit, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1710.9,"endTime":1714.05,"body":"could have a subset of cases in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1710.9,"endTime":1714.05,"body":"there that are doing something"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1714.05,"endTime":1716.99,"body":"very different and not be aware"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1714.05,"endTime":1716.99,"body":"of that."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1717.02,"endTime":1719.06,"body":"Totally. Yeah, I mean,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1717.02,"endTime":1719.06,"body":"think about it from an outlier"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1719.06,"endTime":1722.12,"body":"perspective, where, when you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1719.06,"endTime":1722.12,"body":"talking about univariate,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1722.15,"endTime":1726.29,"body":"procedures, or even multivariate"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1722.15,"endTime":1726.29,"body":"procedures, you will often try"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1726.29,"endTime":1730.46,"body":"to visualize or compute a way"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1726.29,"endTime":1730.46,"body":"that a case stands out or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1730.46,"endTime":1733.13,"body":"doesn't stand out relative to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1730.46,"endTime":1733.13,"body":"the others. How do you do that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1733.13,"endTime":1736.31,"body":"with regard to align? What do I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1733.13,"endTime":1736.31,"body":"have to look at and what you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1736.31,"endTime":1739.01,"body":"describing is something that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1736.31,"endTime":1739.01,"body":"makes sense so that you can even"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1739.04,"endTime":1741.86,"body":"visually identify whether it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1739.04,"endTime":1741.86,"body":"looks like the population you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1741.86,"endTime":1745.37,"body":"have is homogeneous, or you got"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1741.86,"endTime":1745.37,"body":"some weird folks. And when we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1745.37,"endTime":1748.16,"body":"say weird, folks, we mean weird"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1745.37,"endTime":1748.16,"body":"folks in terms of a line, which"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1748.16,"endTime":1750.59,"body":"otherwise wouldn't be in your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1748.16,"endTime":1750.59,"body":"data."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1750.619,"endTime":1752.899,"body":"Those are the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1750.619,"endTime":1752.899,"body":"advantages of the individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1752.899,"endTime":1757.579,"body":"estimates. Now we go through all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1752.899,"endTime":1757.579,"body":"our usual model building. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1757.579,"endTime":1763.039,"body":"let's say we do our full bore"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1757.579,"endTime":1763.039,"body":"growth mod, and we build an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1763.039,"endTime":1766.279,"body":"unconditional growth model. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1763.039,"endTime":1766.279,"body":"we identify the optimal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1766.279,"endTime":1770.929,"body":"trajectory. And we bring in time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1766.279,"endTime":1770.929,"body":"invariant covariance and time"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1770.929,"endTime":1774.439,"body":"varying covariance, we do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1770.929,"endTime":1774.439,"body":"everything that we would do. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1774.469,"endTime":1779.269,"body":"we can get model based"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1774.469,"endTime":1779.269,"body":"trajectories, that it is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1779.269,"endTime":1783.139,"body":"absolutely the individual's raw"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1779.269,"endTime":1783.139,"body":"data, but it's in part"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1783.169,"endTime":1786.169,"body":"influenced by the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1783.169,"endTime":1786.169,"body":"characteristics of the sample as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1786.169,"endTime":1790.639,"body":"a whole. And we can gather all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1786.169,"endTime":1790.639,"body":"of those together and look at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.639,"endTime":1793.879,"body":"them and I gotta tell you, those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.639,"endTime":1793.879,"body":"are the ones I think we should"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1793.879,"endTime":1797.509,"body":"use more in practice. I see the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1793.879,"endTime":1797.509,"body":"individual OLS as a data"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1797.509,"endTime":1801.919,"body":"screening and initial date."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1797.509,"endTime":1801.919,"body":"Equality thing, the model"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1801.919,"endTime":1806.629,"body":"implied, I think there are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1801.919,"endTime":1806.629,"body":"multiple advantages, you can get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1806.629,"endTime":1810.559,"body":"some pretty opaque results from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1806.629,"endTime":1810.559,"body":"this model, you get fixed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1810.559,"endTime":1814.789,"body":"effects, you get random effects,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1810.559,"endTime":1814.789,"body":"you get covariances of random"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1814.789,"endTime":1818.869,"body":"effects, you get residuals, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1814.789,"endTime":1818.869,"body":"get all of our usual parameters."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1819.109,"endTime":1822.319,"body":"And if you're doing a more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1819.109,"endTime":1822.319,"body":"complicated model, these tables"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1822.319,"endTime":1826.939,"body":"start breeding like rabbits,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1822.319,"endTime":1826.939,"body":"where every factor has a mean"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1826.939,"endTime":1829.999,"body":"every factor has a variance,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1826.939,"endTime":1829.999,"body":"every factor has a covariance"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1829.999,"endTime":1834.469,"body":"with every other factor. And it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1829.999,"endTime":1834.469,"body":"can get pretty opaque, both in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1834.469,"endTime":1838.519,"body":"communicating that to a reader,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1834.469,"endTime":1838.519,"body":"but also, in developing an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1838.519,"endTime":1842.359,"body":"understanding of the confidence"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1838.519,"endTime":1842.359,"body":"that you have, that you've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1842.359,"endTime":1845.809,"body":"appropriately modelled the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1842.359,"endTime":1845.809,"body":"characteristics of the data in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1845.809,"endTime":1849.169,"body":"your sample, but being able to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1845.809,"endTime":1849.169,"body":"output these individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1849.169,"endTime":1853.579,"body":"trajectory estimates, and then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1849.169,"endTime":1853.579,"body":"take those out in the garage"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1853.609,"endTime":1857.599,"body":"with your Coors lighting Green"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1853.609,"endTime":1857.599,"body":"Day. And just play around with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1857.599,"endTime":1862.519,"body":"those, I think is a huge"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1857.599,"endTime":1862.519,"body":"advantage that many people don't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1862.549,"endTime":1865.609,"body":"capitalize upon when they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1862.549,"endTime":1865.609,"body":"otherwise could."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1865.699,"endTime":1868.759,"body":"So on the back end, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1865.699,"endTime":1868.759,"body":"you're talking about is now"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1868.789,"endTime":1873.409,"body":"actually putting the individual"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1868.789,"endTime":1873.409,"body":"in the individual. Right, right,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1873.409,"endTime":1875.839,"body":"right, which is, we talk a good"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1873.409,"endTime":1875.839,"body":"game."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1876.77,"endTime":1879.44,"body":"Exactly. It's the green"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1876.77,"endTime":1879.44,"body":"light button all over again,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1879.47,"endTime":1881.09,"body":"you are all individuals."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1890.78,"endTime":1891.47,"body":"I'm not?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1892.67,"endTime":1895.1,"body":"How do we get it back to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1892.67,"endTime":1895.1,"body":"that individual level? And why"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1895.1,"endTime":1896.03,"body":"would I want to do that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1896.06,"endTime":1899.93,"body":"the getting them is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1896.06,"endTime":1899.93,"body":"easy. In an SEM, any program"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1899.93,"endTime":1903.44,"body":"will read out Factor scores. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1899.93,"endTime":1903.44,"body":"the same with the multi level"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1903.44,"endTime":1907.46,"body":"model is any multi level program"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1903.44,"endTime":1907.46,"body":"will give you empirical base"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1907.46,"endTime":1910.97,"body":"estimates at both level one and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1907.46,"endTime":1910.97,"body":"level two. What we're talking"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1910.97,"endTime":1914.21,"body":"about here is level two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1910.97,"endTime":1914.21,"body":"empirical Bayes estimates, which"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1914.21,"endTime":1918.56,"body":"are getting case based estimates"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1914.21,"endTime":1918.56,"body":"of the random effects. And those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1918.56,"endTime":1921.26,"body":"are the intercepts. And those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1918.56,"endTime":1921.26,"body":"are the slopes. So go to your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1921.26,"endTime":1924.65,"body":"favorite program, look up how to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1921.26,"endTime":1924.65,"body":"get these estimates and you got"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1924.77,"endTime":1927.05,"body":"and don't forget their"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1924.77,"endTime":1927.05,"body":"estimates, please don't forget,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1927.05,"endTime":1928.25,"body":"there are only estimates"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1928.28,"endTime":1931.31,"body":"that is huge, right?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1928.28,"endTime":1931.31,"body":"Because they are latent, right?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1931.31,"endTime":1935.24,"body":"We can't see it, we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1931.31,"endTime":1935.24,"body":"estimating in regression, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1935.24,"endTime":1939.5,"body":"actually don't estimate the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1935.24,"endTime":1939.5,"body":"residual, we compute it. Because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1939.5,"endTime":1943.13,"body":"we have y and we have Y hat and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1939.5,"endTime":1943.13,"body":"we take the difference between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1943.13,"endTime":1946.4,"body":"the two and that's e here. These"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1943.13,"endTime":1946.4,"body":"are estimates. And what that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1946.4,"endTime":1950.24,"body":"means is there is no single way"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1946.4,"endTime":1950.24,"body":"of going about doing it in any"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1950.24,"endTime":1954.26,"body":"way that we do is flawed in some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1950.24,"endTime":1954.26,"body":"unknown way. There's an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1954.26,"endTime":1957.41,"body":"unreliability in the estimate of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1954.26,"endTime":1957.41,"body":"that. Exactly. And that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1957.41,"endTime":1960.95,"body":"reflected in the SEM literature."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1957.41,"endTime":1960.95,"body":"Is there many, many different"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1960.95,"endTime":1964.61,"body":"ways of getting Factor score"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1960.95,"endTime":1964.61,"body":"estimates, there's not one way."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1964.76,"endTime":1968.63,"body":"So these are estimates. Now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1964.76,"endTime":1968.63,"body":"you've done your modeling, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1968.63,"endTime":1972.41,"body":"get these case based estimates."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1968.63,"endTime":1972.41,"body":"Now, what do you do with them?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1972.47,"endTime":1978.65,"body":"In my own work, I try to do two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1972.47,"endTime":1978.65,"body":"things. One is I am a massively"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1978.65,"endTime":1981.8,"body":"huge fan of the pokin stuff,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1978.65,"endTime":1981.8,"body":"then we've talked about this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1981.8,"endTime":1984.23,"body":"before, as you're going for a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1981.8,"endTime":1984.23,"body":"hike with your kids and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1984.23,"endTime":1988.88,"body":"everybody gets a pokin stick,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1984.23,"endTime":1988.88,"body":"because the world is just an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1988.94,"endTime":1991.85,"body":"absolute garden of things that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1988.94,"endTime":1991.85,"body":"need to be poked."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1991.88,"endTime":1993.95,"body":"Did you tell your kids"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1991.88,"endTime":1993.95,"body":"this early that they should go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1993.95,"endTime":1995.51,"body":"around and poke everything?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1996.11,"endTime":1999.98,"body":"I mean, oh, and we've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1996.11,"endTime":1999.98,"body":"been stung and bit and I mean,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2000.31,"endTime":2005.53,"body":"there's some life lessons in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2000.31,"endTime":2005.53,"body":"there as well. What is a pokin?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2005.53,"endTime":2009.43,"body":"Stick is all right. Again, as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2005.53,"endTime":2009.43,"body":"you're listening, think about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2009.43,"endTime":2012.22,"body":"something that is near and dear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2009.43,"endTime":2012.22,"body":"to you. Is it your masters, your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2012.22,"endTime":2015.16,"body":"dissertation? A manuscript,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2012.22,"endTime":2015.16,"body":"you've been working on a long"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2015.16,"endTime":2018.01,"body":"time, you've got your final"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2015.16,"endTime":2018.01,"body":"growth model, you've got your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2018.01,"endTime":2021.13,"body":"tables, you've got your fixed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2018.01,"endTime":2021.13,"body":"and random effects. How"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2021.16,"endTime":2024.91,"body":"confident are you that you've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2021.16,"endTime":2024.91,"body":"met all the assumptions of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2024.91,"endTime":2028.36,"body":"model that there are no outliers"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2024.91,"endTime":2028.36,"body":"that there's no subgroup"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2028.36,"endTime":2032.2,"body":"heterogeneity, all the things"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2028.36,"endTime":2032.2,"body":"that we worry about? I love"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2032.2,"endTime":2036.82,"body":"using these case based estimates"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2032.2,"endTime":2036.82,"body":"for diagnostics. You've got them"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2036.82,"endTime":2040.6,"body":"in your back pocket. I'm a very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2036.82,"endTime":2040.6,"body":"pragmatic guy, I've got to see"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2040.6,"endTime":2044.2,"body":"stuff, I've got to touch stuff,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2040.6,"endTime":2044.2,"body":"I've got to feel things we can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2044.2,"endTime":2047.65,"body":"talk about the means of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2044.2,"endTime":2047.65,"body":"slopes and the variances of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2047.65,"endTime":2051.01,"body":"slopes. I want to cut it open"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2047.65,"endTime":2051.01,"body":"and look inside. And when you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2051.01,"endTime":2055.3,"body":"have all your intercepts and all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2051.01,"endTime":2055.3,"body":"your slopes, well, now you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2055.3,"endTime":2059.5,"body":"go to work with those you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2055.3,"endTime":2059.5,"body":"rank order them and look for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2059.5,"endTime":2063.64,"body":"potential outliers or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2059.5,"endTime":2063.64,"body":"influential observations. What"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2063.64,"endTime":2069.16,"body":"if there's somebody in there who"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2063.64,"endTime":2069.16,"body":"has a very steep slope relative"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2069.16,"endTime":2073.18,"body":"to everybody else? Well, I might"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2069.16,"endTime":2073.18,"body":"go in and pick that kid off and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2073.18,"endTime":2077.77,"body":"re estimate the model as a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2073.18,"endTime":2077.77,"body":"sensitivity analysis to see if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2077.77,"endTime":2081.46,"body":"my fixed and random effects"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2077.77,"endTime":2081.46,"body":"vary. I gotta tell you these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2081.46,"endTime":2083.14,"body":"models are persnickety"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2083.14,"endTime":2085.96,"body":"as hell surprisingly, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2083.14,"endTime":2085.96,"body":"might think that they're robust"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2085.96,"endTime":2088.51,"body":"because they're somehow"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2085.96,"endTime":2088.51,"body":"aggregating overall people. You"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2088.51,"endTime":2090.46,"body":"get a weird line in there and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2088.51,"endTime":2090.46,"body":"things change."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2090.49,"endTime":2094.15,"body":"I gotta tell you, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2090.49,"endTime":2094.15,"body":"are damn right. I have done a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2094.15,"endTime":2099.01,"body":"lot of these models over a lot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2094.15,"endTime":2099.01,"body":"of years and it is not uncommon"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2099.04,"endTime":2104.17,"body":"where you identify by one or two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2099.04,"endTime":2104.17,"body":"cases that you drop, and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2104.17,"endTime":2107.68,"body":"variance estimate of your slopes"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2104.17,"endTime":2107.68,"body":"that you are going to center,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2107.68,"endTime":2112.27,"body":"your discussion around goes to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2107.68,"endTime":2112.27,"body":"non significant. These are very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2112.27,"endTime":2115.57,"body":"sensitive to outliers. Well, if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2112.27,"endTime":2115.57,"body":"you don't estimate these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2115.57,"endTime":2118.93,"body":"individual trajectories, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2115.57,"endTime":2118.93,"body":"never know those exists. Now,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2118.93,"endTime":2123.31,"body":"it's a whole nother conversation"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2118.93,"endTime":2123.31,"body":"of Do you delete that case? Do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2123.31,"endTime":2126.31,"body":"you inform the reader? And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2123.31,"endTime":2126.31,"body":"again, I don't want to get into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2126.31,"endTime":2129.85,"body":"that rabbit. Warren of okay, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2126.31,"endTime":2129.85,"body":"you find three outliers, what do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2129.85,"endTime":2134.14,"body":"you do with them, but at least"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2129.85,"endTime":2134.14,"body":"you know, they exist. I have one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2134.14,"endTime":2138.16,"body":"application where I was so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2134.14,"endTime":2138.16,"body":"excited in the results of my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2138.19,"endTime":2141.25,"body":"model, and everything was just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2138.19,"endTime":2141.25,"body":"how I wanted and I was gonna"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2141.25,"endTime":2143.77,"body":"write this wonderful discussion"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2141.25,"endTime":2143.77,"body":"section, I went through this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2143.77,"endTime":2147.91,"body":"endeavor that we're discussing."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2143.77,"endTime":2147.91,"body":"And there were three cases that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2147.94,"endTime":2153.67,"body":"everybody else was growing, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2147.94,"endTime":2153.67,"body":"they were dropping. And you plot"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2153.67,"endTime":2157.09,"body":"these on a single plot, and here"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2153.67,"endTime":2157.09,"body":"are these three kids who start"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2157.09,"endTime":2161.5,"body":"really high, and then drop"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2157.09,"endTime":2161.5,"body":"precipitously. I omitted those"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2161.5,"endTime":2166.81,"body":"three cases, and all my growth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2161.5,"endTime":2166.81,"body":"effects went away. And what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2166.81,"endTime":2170.8,"body":"happened is those three kids"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2166.81,"endTime":2170.8,"body":"moved to juvenile detention."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2170.83,"endTime":2174.22,"body":"That's why their trajectories"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2170.83,"endTime":2174.22,"body":"dropped in the outcome is that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2174.22,"endTime":2179.53,"body":"they were locked up in juvie. Is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2174.22,"endTime":2179.53,"body":"that the population to which I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2179.53,"endTime":2184.54,"body":"want to generalize? Well, no,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2179.53,"endTime":2184.54,"body":"you would not know that I would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2184.54,"endTime":2189.13,"body":"have written my discussion of it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2184.54,"endTime":2189.13,"body":"was the best of times, it was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2189.13,"endTime":2192.91,"body":"the worst of times in these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2189.13,"endTime":2192.91,"body":"results that were all driven by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2192.91,"endTime":2193.75,"body":"three kids."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.78,"endTime":2195.79,"body":"And I really want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.78,"endTime":2195.79,"body":"underscore that thing that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2195.79,"endTime":2198.73,"body":"you're saying. We're not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2195.79,"endTime":2198.73,"body":"suggesting that you go in and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2198.73,"endTime":2201.46,"body":"go, and I don't like that line."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2198.73,"endTime":2201.46,"body":"And I don't like that line. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2201.46,"endTime":2203.92,"body":"I don't like that line. What"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2201.46,"endTime":2203.92,"body":"we're suggesting is that this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2203.92,"endTime":2207.67,"body":"might be a way to be able to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2203.92,"endTime":2207.67,"body":"identify cases that are not part"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2207.67,"endTime":2210.7,"body":"of the population to which you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2207.67,"endTime":2210.7,"body":"wish to generalize. Patrick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2210.7,"endTime":2213.61,"body":"didn't just look at those lines"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2210.7,"endTime":2213.61,"body":"and go, Oh, looks like juvie to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2213.61,"endTime":2217.78,"body":"me, Patrick went to those cases,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2213.61,"endTime":2217.78,"body":"got additional information that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2217.78,"endTime":2220.51,"body":"helped him to understand why"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2217.78,"endTime":2220.51,"body":"that was going on with those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2220.51,"endTime":2224.62,"body":"cases, and then made a decision"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2220.51,"endTime":2224.62,"body":"based on the purposes of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2224.62,"endTime":2227.83,"body":"study to pull those out. This is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2224.62,"endTime":2227.83,"body":"not different. In terms of how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2227.83,"endTime":2231.28,"body":"you handle things with regard to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2227.83,"endTime":2231.28,"body":"outliers. In other settings, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2231.28,"endTime":2234.1,"body":"always have to ask yourself,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2231.28,"endTime":2234.1,"body":"What am I generalizing to? The"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2234.1,"endTime":2237.16,"body":"challenge is we can't see lines"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2234.1,"endTime":2237.16,"body":"unless we start getting some of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2237.16,"endTime":2239.41,"body":"this information. And that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2237.16,"endTime":2239.41,"body":"what this is helping us to do."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2239.47,"endTime":2242.26,"body":"And I think that's a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2239.47,"endTime":2242.26,"body":"really nice way of casting it,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2242.29,"endTime":2246.49,"body":"you don't have access to these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2242.29,"endTime":2246.49,"body":"individual trajectories in your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2246.49,"endTime":2250.51,"body":"fixed and random effects. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2246.49,"endTime":2250.51,"body":"get them you look at them. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2250.51,"endTime":2254.89,"body":"now you're informed. To me,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2250.51,"endTime":2254.89,"body":"that's the huge thing. I now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2254.89,"endTime":2258.34,"body":"know this now, it's an entire"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2254.89,"endTime":2258.34,"body":"different conversation of what"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2258.34,"endTime":2262.54,"body":"do you do with that knowledge?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2258.34,"endTime":2262.54,"body":"Yeah, but you haven't. And I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2262.54,"endTime":2267.25,"body":"would infinitely rather have the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2262.54,"endTime":2267.25,"body":"knowledge and then struggle with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2267.25,"endTime":2270.7,"body":"what to do with that, rather"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2267.25,"endTime":2270.7,"body":"than not know it at all. And the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2270.7,"endTime":2274.72,"body":"fun thing about these is, you've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2270.7,"endTime":2274.72,"body":"got these in your back pocket in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2274.72,"endTime":2278.71,"body":"your data file. The first column"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2274.72,"endTime":2278.71,"body":"is biological sex. The second"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2278.71,"endTime":2282.25,"body":"column is education. The third"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2278.71,"endTime":2282.25,"body":"column is was I in the treatment"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2282.25,"endTime":2285.4,"body":"and control. The fourth column"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2282.25,"endTime":2285.4,"body":"is my intercept. And the fifth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2285.4,"endTime":2288.94,"body":"column is my slope. And so now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2285.4,"endTime":2288.94,"body":"you can get really creative. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2288.94,"endTime":2293.47,"body":"sometimes I will rank order the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2288.94,"endTime":2293.47,"body":"intercepts and the slopes from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2293.47,"endTime":2298.12,"body":"smallest to highest, it'll pick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2293.47,"endTime":2298.12,"body":"off the top and bottom 1%."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2298.18,"endTime":2302.26,"body":"Alright, it's pokin stick, would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2298.18,"endTime":2302.26,"body":"I write the same discussion"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2302.26,"endTime":2307.36,"body":"section, if I picked off the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2302.26,"endTime":2307.36,"body":"extremes, if suddenly my theory"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2307.36,"endTime":2310.99,"body":"was supported? When it wasn't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2307.36,"endTime":2310.99,"body":"before, I'm not going to omit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2310.99,"endTime":2313.87,"body":"those and never tell the reader"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2310.99,"endTime":2313.87,"body":"blah, blah, blah. This is just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2313.9,"endTime":2318.52,"body":"know your limitations know the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2313.9,"endTime":2318.52,"body":"sensitivity of the model, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2318.52,"endTime":2322.33,"body":"make assumptions about the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2318.52,"endTime":2322.33,"body":"distributions of intercepts and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2322.33,"endTime":2325.81,"body":"slopes, right. These are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2322.33,"endTime":2325.81,"body":"sometimes buried in the fine"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2325.81,"endTime":2330.34,"body":"print, but in all the models we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2325.81,"endTime":2330.34,"body":"do we assume that the intercepts"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2330.34,"endTime":2333.49,"body":"are normally distributed, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2330.34,"endTime":2333.49,"body":"slopes are normally distributed,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2333.64,"endTime":2337.21,"body":"the intercept and the slope is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2333.64,"endTime":2337.21,"body":"linearly related that can be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2337.21,"endTime":2341.08,"body":"captured in a covariance, do a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2337.21,"endTime":2341.08,"body":"bivariate plot of intercepts and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2341.08,"endTime":2344.56,"body":"slopes. picture in your mind's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2341.08,"endTime":2344.56,"body":"eye, the x axis is intercept,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2344.68,"endTime":2348.82,"body":"the y axis is the slope, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2344.68,"endTime":2348.82,"body":"you've got a scatterplot of how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2348.82,"endTime":2353.26,"body":"those two relate to one another."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2348.82,"endTime":2353.26,"body":"These are hugely advantageous"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2353.29,"endTime":2356.29,"body":"for checking model assumptions,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2353.29,"endTime":2356.29,"body":"we make assumptions about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2356.29,"endTime":2360.82,"body":"homogeneity of variance. Look at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2356.29,"endTime":2360.82,"body":"the distribution of intercepts"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2360.82,"endTime":2364.9,"body":"and slopes with a box plot for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2360.82,"endTime":2364.9,"body":"treatment versus control for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2364.9,"endTime":2369.64,"body":"male versus female are those box"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2364.9,"endTime":2369.64,"body":"plots more or less similar to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2369.64,"endTime":2374.38,"body":"one another? It's old school"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2369.64,"endTime":2374.38,"body":"diagnostics. But at the level of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2374.38,"endTime":2375.49,"body":"the trajectories,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2375.7,"endTime":2378.43,"body":"you made a really good"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2375.7,"endTime":2378.43,"body":"point that we assume that these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2378.43,"endTime":2380.74,"body":"latent variables might be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2378.43,"endTime":2380.74,"body":"normally distributed. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2380.74,"endTime":2384.34,"body":"imagine, for example, that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2380.74,"endTime":2384.34,"body":"are modeling alcohol consumption"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2384.34,"endTime":2388.72,"body":"in adolescence and you run a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2384.34,"endTime":2388.72,"body":"model that is the equivalent of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2388.75,"endTime":2392.8,"body":"fitting lines to each of those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2388.75,"endTime":2392.8,"body":"and your distribution of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2392.83,"endTime":2397.51,"body":"intercepts. If you drew it out"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2392.83,"endTime":2397.51,"body":"as though it was normal, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2397.51,"endTime":2400.36,"body":"would find that some kids are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2397.51,"endTime":2400.36,"body":"starting off in third Rate"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2400.48,"endTime":2404.44,"body":"drinking negative five drinks"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2400.48,"endTime":2404.44,"body":"per month. And the numbers on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2404.44,"endTime":2408.49,"body":"the distribution make no sense"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2404.44,"endTime":2408.49,"body":"given your substantive"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2408.49,"endTime":2411.7,"body":"knowledge, obviously. But if you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2408.49,"endTime":2411.7,"body":"just assume things are normal,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2411.73,"endTime":2413.92,"body":"then it doesn't make sense. If"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2411.73,"endTime":2413.92,"body":"you do what Patrick's talking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2413.92,"endTime":2417.28,"body":"about, you might see the heavier"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2413.92,"endTime":2417.28,"body":"skew, right? This isn't just oh,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2417.28,"endTime":2419.86,"body":"this is something interesting to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2417.28,"endTime":2419.86,"body":"do. This is part of your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2419.86,"endTime":2422.56,"body":"understanding of the phenomenon"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2419.86,"endTime":2422.56,"body":"that you're trying to study."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2422.59,"endTime":2426.58,"body":"To be super clear, this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2422.59,"endTime":2426.58,"body":"stuff has been around for 20"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2426.64,"endTime":2430.96,"body":"more years plus, routing, Bush"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2426.64,"endTime":2430.96,"body":"and bright have an entire"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2430.96,"endTime":2434.29,"body":"chapter in their multi level"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2430.96,"endTime":2434.29,"body":"book. It's hierarchical linear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2434.29,"endTime":2438.31,"body":"modeling, I think it was 2002."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2434.29,"endTime":2438.31,"body":"It's almost 20 years now. But if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2438.31,"endTime":2441.82,"body":"diagnostics for a multi level"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2438.31,"endTime":2441.82,"body":"model, all of this stuff"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2441.82,"endTime":2446.56,"body":"applies. Even if you have nested"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2441.82,"endTime":2446.56,"body":"structured data, kids within"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2446.56,"endTime":2450.76,"body":"classrooms, you can get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2446.56,"endTime":2450.76,"body":"classroom level estimates of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2450.79,"endTime":2454.63,"body":"random effects. And they walk"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2450.79,"endTime":2454.63,"body":"through a really nice"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2454.63,"endTime":2458.44,"body":"diagnostics in much the same way"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2454.63,"endTime":2458.44,"body":"that I'm describing now with the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2458.44,"endTime":2462.19,"body":"growth trajectory. So none of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2458.44,"endTime":2462.19,"body":"this is new. But that's only"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2462.19,"endTime":2466.24,"body":"half of what I like about it."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2462.19,"endTime":2466.24,"body":"The first half is how confident"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2466.27,"endTime":2469.9,"body":"are you in the stability of your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2466.27,"endTime":2469.9,"body":"model, you do whatever you do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2469.96,"endTime":2473.35,"body":"with those diagnostics. And now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2469.96,"endTime":2473.35,"body":"let's say you and I have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2473.35,"endTime":2477.4,"body":"finalized a model that we have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2473.35,"endTime":2477.4,"body":"confidence in, we believe it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2477.4,"endTime":2480.76,"body":"stable, it's not being driven by"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2477.4,"endTime":2480.76,"body":"a small number of outliers."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2480.76,"endTime":2484.78,"body":"We're meeting the assumptions"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2480.76,"endTime":2484.78,"body":"we're done and done. And now we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2484.78,"endTime":2487.81,"body":"want to open the cage and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2484.78,"endTime":2487.81,"body":"release it into the wild. By the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2487.81,"endTime":2490.36,"body":"way, yesterday, I caught my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2487.81,"endTime":2490.36,"body":"first squirrel. I sent you a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2490.36,"endTime":2493.09,"body":"little video clip of that. Yes,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2490.36,"endTime":2493.09,"body":"you did. Yeah."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2493.42,"endTime":2495.67,"body":"This is what your life"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2493.42,"endTime":2495.67,"body":"becomes, by the way, for those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2495.67,"endTime":2498.22,"body":"of you who are out there, this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2495.67,"endTime":2498.22,"body":"is the excitement that goes back"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2498.22,"endTime":2501.43,"body":"and forth between us, Patrick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2498.22,"endTime":2501.43,"body":"shows me animals. Oh, it's the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2501.43,"endTime":2502.78,"body":"first squirrel of the season."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2502.84,"endTime":2506.56,"body":"Yeah, I live on two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2502.84,"endTime":2506.56,"body":"acres of wooded land, and I've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2506.59,"endTime":2509.59,"body":"decided to remove all the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2506.59,"endTime":2509.59,"body":"squirrels. Anyway, we're going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2509.59,"endTime":2514.57,"body":"to open it and release it into"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2509.59,"endTime":2514.57,"body":"the wild. Now, it is our ethical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2514.57,"endTime":2519.22,"body":"responsibility to communicate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2514.57,"endTime":2519.22,"body":"those results to a broad"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2519.22,"endTime":2522.82,"body":"readership, who are going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2519.22,"endTime":2522.82,"body":"consume our findings, we give a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2522.82,"endTime":2527.2,"body":"table of means and variances and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2522.82,"endTime":2527.2,"body":"covariances. And some are raw"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2527.2,"endTime":2531.01,"body":"and some are standardized."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2527.2,"endTime":2531.01,"body":"Imagine taking those and then"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2531.04,"endTime":2535.6,"body":"augmenting it with graphics. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2531.04,"endTime":2535.6,"body":"one thing I love is the fixed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2535.6,"endTime":2538.66,"body":"effect is what is the average"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2535.6,"endTime":2538.66,"body":"starting point. And what is the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2538.66,"endTime":2543.01,"body":"average rate of change make an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2538.66,"endTime":2543.01,"body":"XY plot where we put the fixed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2543.01,"endTime":2547.15,"body":"effect on it a starting point of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2543.01,"endTime":2547.15,"body":"1.6 100 increases point oh seven"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2547.18,"endTime":2551.98,"body":"per year, but then overlay a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2547.18,"endTime":2551.98,"body":"random sample of individual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2551.98,"endTime":2557.44,"body":"trajectories. Oh, these are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2551.98,"endTime":2557.44,"body":"beautiful plots. And you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2557.47,"endTime":2563.71,"body":"augment an obtuse table with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2557.47,"endTime":2563.71,"body":"these graphics that say here is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2563.74,"endTime":2566.56,"body":"the model based estimates of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2563.74,"endTime":2566.56,"body":"individual variability of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2566.56,"endTime":2570.55,"body":"trajectories within the control"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2566.56,"endTime":2570.55,"body":"group. And the panel next to it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2570.55,"endTime":2573.88,"body":"is within the treatment group,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2570.55,"endTime":2573.88,"body":"you have a dark line, that's the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2573.88,"endTime":2577.09,"body":"fixed effect within control and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2573.88,"endTime":2577.09,"body":"the fixed effect within"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2577.09,"endTime":2579.73,"body":"treatment. And you have the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2577.09,"endTime":2579.73,"body":"individual trajectories around"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2579.73,"endTime":2582.34,"body":"the control, and you have the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2579.73,"endTime":2582.34,"body":"individual trajectories around"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2582.34,"endTime":2587.26,"body":"the treatment. It brings your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2582.34,"endTime":2587.26,"body":"opaque table to life. I like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2587.26,"endTime":2589.78,"body":"that idea a lot,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2587.26,"endTime":2589.78,"body":"especially because we have an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2589.78,"endTime":2592.21,"body":"inherent sense of growth"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2589.78,"endTime":2592.21,"body":"modeling. But at the end of it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2592.21,"endTime":2595.87,"body":"all, we talk a good game about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2592.21,"endTime":2595.87,"body":"modeling individual processes."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2596.02,"endTime":2599.11,"body":"But the parameters that we focus"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2596.02,"endTime":2599.11,"body":"on are more descriptions of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2599.11,"endTime":2601.66,"body":"what's happening across those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2599.11,"endTime":2601.66,"body":"individuals, rather than taking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2601.66,"endTime":2603.88,"body":"the individual differences into"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2601.66,"endTime":2603.88,"body":"account. So what you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2603.88,"endTime":2607.3,"body":"describing is a way to start"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2603.88,"endTime":2607.3,"body":"visualizing. Are those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2607.33,"endTime":2612.07,"body":"individual lines really tight to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2607.33,"endTime":2612.07,"body":"the overall trajectory, are they"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2612.07,"endTime":2616.06,"body":"all over the place that is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2612.07,"endTime":2616.06,"body":"really valuable information. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2616.06,"endTime":2618.79,"body":"it's so much more meaningful to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2616.06,"endTime":2618.79,"body":"visualize rather than just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2618.79,"endTime":2622.72,"body":"having a variance of a slope or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2618.79,"endTime":2622.72,"body":"a variance of an intercept."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2623.17,"endTime":2626.56,"body":"And it's no different"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2623.17,"endTime":2626.56,"body":"than any of our traditional"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2626.56,"endTime":2629.56,"body":"models that are the same thing."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2626.56,"endTime":2629.56,"body":"We have a variance of a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2629.56,"endTime":2633.07,"body":"residual, what are the residuals"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2629.56,"endTime":2633.07,"body":"look like? It's just all we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2633.07,"endTime":2637.0,"body":"doing is scaling that up a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2633.07,"endTime":2637.0,"body":"little bit. It's not even that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2637.0,"endTime":2640.12,"body":"much. We're instead of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2637.0,"endTime":2640.12,"body":"individual residuals, we now"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2640.12,"endTime":2644.14,"body":"have individual intercepts,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2640.12,"endTime":2644.14,"body":"individual slopes, another thumb"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2644.14,"endTime":2649.12,"body":"tack I want to put into maybe a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2644.14,"endTime":2649.12,"body":"future topic. I will make one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2649.12,"endTime":2653.26,"body":"recommendation for what not to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2649.12,"endTime":2653.26,"body":"do with these trajectory"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2653.26,"endTime":2657.19,"body":"estimates. Ooh, and we will come"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2653.26,"endTime":2657.19,"body":"back and revisit it on some"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2657.19,"endTime":2658.36,"body":"future episode."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2658.81,"endTime":2660.46,"body":"cliffhanger. I love it."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2658.81,"endTime":2660.46,"body":"You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2660.49,"endTime":2664.9,"body":"are going to have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2660.49,"endTime":2664.9,"body":"siren song. Alright, so Greg is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2664.9,"endTime":2670.21,"body":"Lashed to the mast and is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2664.9,"endTime":2670.21,"body":"sailing by the sirens so that he"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2670.21,"endTime":2672.16,"body":"can hear their beautiful song"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2672.9,"endTime":2678.06,"body":"asleep. My name is"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2672.9,"endTime":2678.06,"body":"Ulysses Everett McGill, asleep"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2679.53,"endTime":2684.24,"body":"about the devil nice three."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2684.27,"endTime":2688.26,"body":"You've got everybody's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2684.27,"endTime":2688.26,"body":"intercept. You've got everybody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2688.26,"endTime":2693.33,"body":"slope and the sirens are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2688.26,"endTime":2693.33,"body":"singing. Use them as predictor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2693.33,"endTime":2699.27,"body":"variables, use them as outcome"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2693.33,"endTime":2699.27,"body":"variables and Odysseus is going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2699.27,"endTime":2703.23,"body":"to go right by To the sirens,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2699.27,"endTime":2703.23,"body":"and is going to say in 2000"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2703.26,"endTime":2706.53,"body":"years, we're going to know why"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2703.26,"endTime":2706.53,"body":"not to do that"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2706.62,"endTime":2708.75,"body":"join you to ignorant"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2706.62,"endTime":2708.75,"body":"fools and ridiculous"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2708.75,"endTime":2711.6,"body":"superstition. Thank you anyway,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2708.75,"endTime":2711.6,"body":"you boys are dumber than a bag"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":2711.6,"endTime":2712.08,"body":"of hammers."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2713.67,"endTime":2716.97,"body":"I am going to leave"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2713.67,"endTime":2716.97,"body":"with a cliffhanger, you may be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2716.97,"endTime":2722.22,"body":"tempted to use those as IVs or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2716.97,"endTime":2722.22,"body":"DVS and other models and we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2722.22,"endTime":2727.62,"body":"cannot recommend strongly enough"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2722.22,"endTime":2727.62,"body":"to not do that. And there are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2727.62,"endTime":2732.09,"body":"statistical reasons that we'll"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2727.62,"endTime":2732.09,"body":"talk about on another day, but"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2732.12,"endTime":2736.44,"body":"do not use them as predictors or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2732.12,"endTime":2736.44,"body":"outcomes in a subsequent model."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2736.47,"endTime":2738.03,"body":"Wait a minute, do you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2736.47,"endTime":2738.03,"body":"think that I'm not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2738.03,"endTime":2741.24,"body":"developmentally ready to be able"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2738.03,"endTime":2741.24,"body":"to handle that information? Is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2741.24,"endTime":2741.96,"body":"that what you're saying?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2741.99,"endTime":2745.14,"body":"You know what I'm gonna"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2741.99,"endTime":2745.14,"body":"need to push the episode is over"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2745.14,"endTime":2748.8,"body":"button, because I think we've"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2745.14,"endTime":2748.8,"body":"talked enough so let me get"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2748.8,"endTime":2751.83,"body":"under my desk and Goodbye,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2748.8,"endTime":2751.83,"body":"everybody."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2752.07,"endTime":2753.36,"body":"Dad, don't push them."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2758.19,"endTime":2760.89,"body":"Thank you so much for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2758.19,"endTime":2760.89,"body":"listening. You can subscribe to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2760.89,"endTime":2764.4,"body":"quantum tude on Apple podcast,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2760.89,"endTime":2764.4,"body":"Spotify, or wherever you listen"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2764.4,"endTime":2767.31,"body":"to audio intended to punish your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2764.4,"endTime":2767.31,"body":"children while riding in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2767.31,"endTime":2770.7,"body":"backseat of your car. And please"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2767.31,"endTime":2770.7,"body":"leave us a review. You can also"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2770.7,"endTime":2774.6,"body":"follow us on Twitter we are at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2770.7,"endTime":2774.6,"body":"quantity food pod and check out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2774.6,"endTime":2778.59,"body":"our webpage at quantity pod.org"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2774.6,"endTime":2778.59,"body":"for past episodes, playlists,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2778.59,"endTime":2781.92,"body":"show notes, transcripts and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2778.59,"endTime":2781.92,"body":"other cool stuff. Finally, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2781.92,"endTime":2785.55,"body":"can get cornered to the merge to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2781.92,"endTime":2785.55,"body":"secretly connect with others who"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2785.55,"endTime":2789.6,"body":"also squander their valuable"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2785.55,"endTime":2789.6,"body":"time at Red bubble.com Where All"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2789.6,"endTime":2794.25,"body":"proceeds go to Donors Choose to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2789.6,"endTime":2794.25,"body":"support low income schools. You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2794.31,"endTime":2797.46,"body":"have been listening to quantity"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2794.31,"endTime":2797.46,"body":"food, characterized by more"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2797.46,"endTime":2801.09,"body":"fabrications and embellishments"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2797.46,"endTime":2801.09,"body":"than George Santos his resume."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2801.3,"endTime":2805.35,"body":"quietude has been brought to you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2801.3,"endTime":2805.35,"body":"by quiet quitting and academia a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2805.35,"endTime":2808.5,"body":"phenomenon for which our lawyers"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2805.35,"endTime":2808.5,"body":"have stated the quantity of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2808.53,"endTime":2811.92,"body":"takes no responsibility and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2808.53,"endTime":2811.92,"body":"vehemently asserts that it is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2811.92,"endTime":2815.79,"body":"pure coincidence that both words"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2811.92,"endTime":2815.79,"body":"start with a cue by Wednesday's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2815.79,"endTime":2819.63,"body":"viral Tiktok dance. Honestly,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2815.79,"endTime":2819.63,"body":"we're just trying to associate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2819.63,"endTime":2822.3,"body":"us with the video to burrow"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2819.63,"endTime":2822.3,"body":"ourselves into your brain."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2828.03,"endTime":2830.97,"body":"And we conclude with a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2828.03,"endTime":2830.97,"body":"quantitative public service"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2830.97,"endTime":2834.18,"body":"announcement. Although Patrick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2830.97,"endTime":2834.18,"body":"does indeed catch squirrels in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2834.18,"endTime":2837.96,"body":"his backyard. These are safely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2834.18,"endTime":2837.96,"body":"captured and are immediately"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2837.96,"endTime":2841.74,"body":"released into Dan Bauer screened"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2837.96,"endTime":2841.74,"body":"in porch. This is most"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2841.74,"endTime":2844.41,"body":"definitely not NPR"}]}