{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":4.17,"endTime":6.9,"body":"Welcome, my name is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":4.17,"endTime":6.9,"body":"Patrick Curran and along with my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":6.9,"endTime":10.44,"body":"dolphin loving friend Greg"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":6.9,"endTime":10.44,"body":"Hancock, we make up quantum tune"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":10.47,"endTime":14.1,"body":"we're a podcast dedicated to all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":10.47,"endTime":14.1,"body":"things quantitative ranging from"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":14.1,"endTime":16.89,"body":"the irrelevant to the completely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":14.1,"endTime":16.89,"body":"irrelevant. In this week's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":16.89,"endTime":19.98,"body":"episode Greg and I discuss how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":16.89,"endTime":19.98,"body":"we might flip the traditional"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":19.98,"endTime":23.76,"body":"Knoll and alternative hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":19.98,"endTime":23.76,"body":"testing procedures to move us"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":23.76,"endTime":27.24,"body":"from tests of literal equality"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":23.76,"endTime":27.24,"body":"to tests of practical"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.24,"endTime":31.17,"body":"equivalence. Along the way, we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":27.24,"endTime":31.17,"body":"also discuss tough love"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":31.23,"endTime":34.56,"body":"horseshoes and hand grenades."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":31.23,"endTime":34.56,"body":"Patrick's driving school"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":34.8,"endTime":39.06,"body":"Cheyenne Mountain So Long and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":34.8,"endTime":39.06,"body":"Thanks for All the Fish. Isn't"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":39.06,"endTime":44.4,"body":"that convenient? why people hate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":39.06,"endTime":44.4,"body":"us systolic blood pressure, real"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":44.4,"endTime":51.54,"body":"doctors, I can't drive 55 splash"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":44.4,"endTime":51.54,"body":"zones, Gallagher, Dilbert and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":51.54,"endTime":55.59,"body":"being precisely equal. We hope"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":51.54,"endTime":55.59,"body":"you enjoy this week's episode."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":57.57,"endTime":60.03,"body":"It would be an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":57.57,"endTime":60.03,"body":"understatement to say that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":60.03,"endTime":63.42,"body":"have had a lot going on lately."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":60.03,"endTime":63.42,"body":"Am I right? That is right."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.45,"endTime":66.87,"body":"We've got two root"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":63.45,"endTime":66.87,"body":"canals a lip surgery and a major"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":66.87,"endTime":68.34,"body":"shoulder reconstruction."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":69.09,"endTime":72.48,"body":"Poor guy but if I may,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":69.09,"endTime":72.48,"body":"that's not all."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":72.81,"endTime":77.13,"body":"No, I got some sad news"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":72.81,"endTime":77.13,"body":"listeners is a presents over the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":77.13,"endTime":81.33,"body":"last three and a half years on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":77.13,"endTime":81.33,"body":"the podcast was my 90 year old"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":81.33,"endTime":86.55,"body":"mom. And indeed mom was on an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":81.33,"endTime":86.55,"body":"early episode with Aunt Joanne."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":87.48,"endTime":92.01,"body":"Mom through the beauty of your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":87.48,"endTime":92.01,"body":"Irish accent kept sending me for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":92.01,"endTime":96.21,"body":"a pack of smokes, and was with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":92.01,"endTime":96.21,"body":"Aunt Dottie as part of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":96.21,"endTime":100.5,"body":"funeral for MANOVA. But in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":96.21,"endTime":100.5,"body":"first part of December, my mom"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":100.5,"endTime":106.59,"body":"passed away. So sorry, thank"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":100.5,"endTime":106.59,"body":"you. She was one of seven born"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":106.62,"endTime":111.87,"body":"in a period of nine years. Wow."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":106.62,"endTime":111.87,"body":"on a dairy farm in Wisconsin in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":111.9,"endTime":116.7,"body":"the 1930s. She and her two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":111.9,"endTime":116.7,"body":"sisters went to college, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":116.7,"endTime":120.24,"body":"three farm girls pooled their"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":116.7,"endTime":120.24,"body":"money, bought a car and we're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":120.24,"endTime":125.46,"body":"going to drive to California,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":120.24,"endTime":125.46,"body":"two or three B teachers. And in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":125.46,"endTime":128.61,"body":"Denver had a car accident. My"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":125.46,"endTime":128.61,"body":"mom was pretty seriously"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":128.61,"endTime":132.54,"body":"injured. They had to stay in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":128.61,"endTime":132.54,"body":"Denver for her to recover and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":132.54,"endTime":136.56,"body":"the three of them never left."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":132.54,"endTime":136.56,"body":"She was a high school teacher,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":136.59,"endTime":141.03,"body":"retired, became a published"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":136.59,"endTime":141.03,"body":"author and was an absolutely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":141.03,"endTime":143.94,"body":"remarkable woman and she will be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":141.03,"endTime":143.94,"body":"missed."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":143.97,"endTime":147.72,"body":"Well, I will always"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":143.97,"endTime":147.72,"body":"remember that she desk rejected"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":147.72,"endTime":150.75,"body":"the limerick that I wrote for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":147.72,"endTime":150.75,"body":"her to do on our episode."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":152.16,"endTime":155.31,"body":"Early on wanted her to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":152.16,"endTime":155.31,"body":"read the limerick as part of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":155.31,"endTime":159.24,"body":"that episode and Greg wrote it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":155.31,"endTime":159.24,"body":"out. I printed it. I was in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":159.24,"endTime":162.96,"body":"Denver, my aunt Joanne was there"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":159.24,"endTime":162.96,"body":"as well gave it to my mum read"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":162.96,"endTime":166.05,"body":"it and said, Yeah, this is no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":162.96,"endTime":166.05,"body":"good. I'm gonna rewrite it come"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":166.05,"endTime":170.79,"body":"back later this afternoon. And I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":166.05,"endTime":170.79,"body":"thought Welcome to where I came"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":170.79,"endTime":172.68,"body":"from as a human being."},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":173.22,"endTime":176.97,"body":"And oh, Patrick, this is"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":173.22,"endTime":176.97,"body":"your mother. I have a limerick I"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":176.97,"endTime":180.45,"body":"would like to share with you and"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":176.97,"endTime":180.45,"body":"Greg, There once was a"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":180.45,"endTime":185.82,"body":"quantitative mother whose two"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":180.45,"endTime":185.82,"body":"sons outdid each other that Pat"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":185.82,"endTime":190.59,"body":"knew he was through when she"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":185.82,"endTime":190.59,"body":"said, Why can't you get a real"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":190.59,"endTime":194.52,"body":"job like your brother? Don't"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":190.59,"endTime":194.52,"body":"forget to call on a Sunday."},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":194.52,"endTime":197.52,"body":"Honey, I have a question about"},{"speaker":"Mom","startTime":194.52,"endTime":197.52,"body":"My Computer."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":198.06,"endTime":200.73,"body":"No offense to your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":198.06,"endTime":200.73,"body":"Limerick but I think it came out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":200.73,"endTime":200.91,"body":"in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":202.86,"endTime":204.96,"body":"well, what would we do?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":202.86,"endTime":204.96,"body":"Would we raise a pint of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":204.96,"endTime":207.57,"body":"Guinness to your to your mom? Is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":204.96,"endTime":207.57,"body":"that what we would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":207.57,"endTime":212.13,"body":"do? And then you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":207.57,"endTime":212.13,"body":"send me for a pack of smokes. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":212.13,"endTime":215.64,"body":"anyway, thank you for your"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":212.13,"endTime":215.64,"body":"thoughts, and she will be deeply"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":215.64,"endTime":216.12,"body":"missed."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":216.15,"endTime":218.79,"body":"So now that you yourself"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":216.15,"endTime":218.79,"body":"are getting a little bit older,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":218.82,"endTime":222.45,"body":"do you see some of her and you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":218.82,"endTime":222.45,"body":"like how you do things? How you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":222.45,"endTime":223.68,"body":"parent your kids?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":223.71,"endTime":228.0,"body":"Absolutely. There are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":223.71,"endTime":228.0,"body":"two things that I see one that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":228.0,"endTime":232.68,"body":"lock stock and barrel I got is a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":228.0,"endTime":232.68,"body":"sense of tough love. I've told"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":232.68,"endTime":235.8,"body":"this story before where my kid"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":232.68,"endTime":235.8,"body":"was running barefoot stubbed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":235.8,"endTime":239.52,"body":"their toe ran crying mom brush"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":235.8,"endTime":239.52,"body":"the hair out of their eyes and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":239.52,"endTime":244.44,"body":"said, Well, honey, that's why"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":239.52,"endTime":244.44,"body":"God made shoes. I got that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":244.83,"endTime":249.03,"body":"Which as you are aware of this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":244.83,"endTime":249.03,"body":"story translated where my kids"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":249.03,"endTime":253.23,"body":"were training for a 5k one of my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":249.03,"endTime":253.23,"body":"kids was complaining about how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":253.26,"endTime":257.46,"body":"her leg hurt. I said yeah, you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":253.26,"endTime":257.46,"body":"hurt when you run, take an Advil"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":257.46,"endTime":263.16,"body":"go to bed and two days later we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":257.46,"endTime":263.16,"body":"found out she had a fracture. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":263.19,"endTime":266.94,"body":"there's that element. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":263.19,"endTime":266.94,"body":"another one that I really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":266.94,"endTime":270.93,"body":"admired with her is you can make"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":266.94,"endTime":270.93,"body":"a lot of progress with close"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":270.93,"endTime":275.22,"body":"enough that notion of don't let"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":270.93,"endTime":275.22,"body":"the perfect be the enemy of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":275.22,"endTime":280.41,"body":"good. That that is close enough"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":275.22,"endTime":280.41,"body":"that we can do that and move on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":280.41,"endTime":284.01,"body":"to other things. My Limerick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":280.41,"endTime":284.01,"body":"notwithstanding, okay, there is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":284.01,"endTime":287.61,"body":"a catalogue for here that it can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":284.01,"endTime":287.61,"body":"be within the caliper."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":287.64,"endTime":290.04,"body":"You're saying it wasn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":287.64,"endTime":290.04,"body":"even close enough. Limerick"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":290.07,"endTime":294.03,"body":"was outside of the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":290.07,"endTime":294.03,"body":"caliper man but a really funny"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":294.03,"endTime":297.78,"body":"thing happened a while ago where"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":294.03,"endTime":297.78,"body":"I saw this with my own kids. My"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.78,"endTime":300.48,"body":"kids are 18 now they've been"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":297.78,"endTime":300.48,"body":"driving for good You're a year"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":300.48,"endTime":303.66,"body":"and a half. But when we were"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":300.48,"endTime":303.66,"body":"teaching them to drive, there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":303.66,"endTime":307.23,"body":"the letter of the law and how do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":303.66,"endTime":307.23,"body":"you drive, but there's also the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":307.23,"endTime":312.45,"body":"spirit of the law. Hmm. And it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":307.23,"endTime":312.45,"body":"involves speed limits. And I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":312.45,"endTime":315.15,"body":"made a comment at one point when"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":312.45,"endTime":315.15,"body":"I was teaching the kids how to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":315.15,"endTime":318.33,"body":"drive that there's the posted"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":315.15,"endTime":318.33,"body":"speed limit. But if you have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":318.33,"endTime":324.36,"body":"3545 55, you've got 689 miles an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":318.33,"endTime":324.36,"body":"hour that you can go over that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":324.48,"endTime":328.14,"body":"before a cop is gonna bother"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":324.48,"endTime":328.14,"body":"pulling you over to be clear,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":328.17,"endTime":331.05,"body":"you're offering advice,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":328.17,"endTime":331.05,"body":"and you're the one who could"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":331.05,"endTime":334.74,"body":"wallpaper your entire office"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":331.05,"endTime":334.74,"body":"with traffic tickets. Am I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":334.74,"endTime":335.67,"body":"correct? On that point,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":335.7,"endTime":340.68,"body":"I could open my own"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":335.7,"endTime":340.68,"body":"driver's ed school based on how"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":340.68,"endTime":342.0,"body":"many I have attended,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":342.029,"endTime":344.459,"body":"okay, by all means, give"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":342.029,"endTime":344.459,"body":"your kid advice."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":344.519,"endTime":348.659,"body":"The problem was they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":344.519,"endTime":348.659,"body":"encoded that as that was"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":348.689,"endTime":353.399,"body":"actually a law. If you had a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":348.689,"endTime":353.399,"body":"posted speed limit, you could go"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":353.399,"endTime":357.329,"body":"10 miles an hour over illegally."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":353.399,"endTime":357.329,"body":"And this would not have been a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":357.329,"endTime":362.849,"body":"problem if one of them had not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":357.329,"endTime":362.849,"body":"raised this in driver's ed class"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":363.839,"endTime":369.959,"body":"as a fact, and they came home"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":363.839,"endTime":369.959,"body":"and I got excoriated because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":369.989,"endTime":374.669,"body":"they got laughed out in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":369.989,"endTime":374.669,"body":"class is that if it's posted 45"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":374.729,"endTime":380.429,"body":"Well, legally, you can go 55"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":374.729,"endTime":380.429,"body":"Because my dad said so my dad"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":380.429,"endTime":386.699,"body":"said so. So yes, that notion of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":380.429,"endTime":386.699,"body":"how close is close enough?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":386.73,"endTime":389.04,"body":"What's the old saying"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":386.73,"endTime":389.04,"body":"close only counts and what was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":389.04,"endTime":391.74,"body":"the version of that that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":389.04,"endTime":391.74,"body":"grew up? Hearing close only"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":391.74,"endTime":392.79,"body":"counts in"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":392.91,"endTime":395.43,"body":"horseshoes, hand"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":392.91,"endTime":395.43,"body":"grenades and nuclear war. Wait,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":395.43,"endTime":395.67,"body":"you got"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":395.669,"endTime":399.689,"body":"nuclear war at the end"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":395.669,"endTime":399.689,"body":"that was added. Okay."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":399.72,"endTime":404.82,"body":"NORAD is the home of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":399.72,"endTime":404.82,"body":"the United States Nuclear"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":404.82,"endTime":409.41,"body":"tracking, and it's in Cheyenne"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":404.82,"endTime":409.41,"body":"Mountain. I grew up like 30"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":409.41,"endTime":412.68,"body":"minutes from Cheyenne Mountain."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":409.41,"endTime":412.68,"body":"And there was always all this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":412.68,"endTime":415.95,"body":"talk of Oh, the Russians are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":412.68,"endTime":415.95,"body":"going to put a missile through"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":415.95,"endTime":419.73,"body":"the front door of Cheyenne"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":415.95,"endTime":419.73,"body":"Mountain. And when the Soviet"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":419.73,"endTime":424.17,"body":"Union fell, and all the secret"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":419.73,"endTime":424.17,"body":"documents became available, the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":424.17,"endTime":428.55,"body":"Soviet Union couldn't have hit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":424.17,"endTime":428.55,"body":"Colorado, much less the front"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":428.55,"endTime":431.85,"body":"door of Cheyenne Mountain. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":428.55,"endTime":431.85,"body":"yeah, close enough for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":431.85,"endTime":435.18,"body":"horseshoes, hand grenades and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":431.85,"endTime":435.18,"body":"nuclear war. Okay. You know,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":435.18,"endTime":437.28,"body":"believe it or not, all of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":435.18,"endTime":437.28,"body":"this actually relates to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":437.28,"endTime":438.48,"body":"hypothesis testing."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":438.69,"endTime":442.98,"body":"Really? All right, I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":438.69,"endTime":442.98,"body":"gonna refill my coffee here, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":442.98,"endTime":449.19,"body":"I'm gonna see how you're gonna"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":442.98,"endTime":449.19,"body":"relate my mother to speeding to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":449.19,"endTime":452.46,"body":"nuclear war? Go? Okay."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":452.789,"endTime":454.889,"body":"Let me start with this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":452.789,"endTime":454.889,"body":"particular question. When you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":454.889,"endTime":458.849,"body":"reject a null hypothesis, like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":454.889,"endTime":458.849,"body":"for the difference between two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":458.849,"endTime":461.639,"body":"means, what do you actually"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":458.849,"endTime":461.639,"body":"conclude? What are the words"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":461.639,"endTime":464.579,"body":"that you teach your class, when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":461.639,"endTime":464.579,"body":"you reject the null hypothesis,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":464.639,"endTime":468.449,"body":"if you get a P value"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":464.639,"endTime":468.449,"body":"less than alpha, which we will"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":468.449,"endTime":474.119,"body":"say is Oh five, I would say it"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":468.449,"endTime":474.119,"body":"is unlikely that you would have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":474.119,"endTime":478.889,"body":"observed a difference between"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":474.119,"endTime":478.889,"body":"your sample means this large or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":478.889,"endTime":482.729,"body":"larger, if there was truly no"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":478.889,"endTime":482.729,"body":"difference in the population,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":482.789,"endTime":486.899,"body":"and therefore you infer that I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":482.789,"endTime":486.899,"body":"would have a probabilistic basis"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":486.899,"endTime":491.159,"body":"to reject the null that they are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":486.899,"endTime":491.159,"body":"precisely equal in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":491.159,"endTime":494.939,"body":"population and therefore are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":491.159,"endTime":494.939,"body":"different."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":495.029,"endTime":496.739,"body":"All right, so that there's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":495.029,"endTime":496.739,"body":"some difference, because it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":496.739,"endTime":499.079,"body":"kind of hard to believe that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":496.739,"endTime":499.079,"body":"there's no difference. You just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":499.079,"endTime":502.409,"body":"rejected that. And you would do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":499.079,"endTime":502.409,"body":"the same thing for a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":502.409,"endTime":505.439,"body":"correlation, right? When you get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":502.409,"endTime":505.439,"body":"a statistically significant"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":505.439,"endTime":509.039,"body":"correlation coefficient or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":505.439,"endTime":509.039,"body":"predictor in regression, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":509.039,"endTime":511.829,"body":"wind up saying something that,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":509.039,"endTime":511.829,"body":"you know, if it were the case,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":511.829,"endTime":514.829,"body":"that that correlation, were"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":511.829,"endTime":514.829,"body":"really zero in the population or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":514.829,"endTime":517.769,"body":"that predictor really had no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":514.829,"endTime":517.769,"body":"predictive value and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":517.769,"endTime":521.609,"body":"understanding why it would be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":517.769,"endTime":521.609,"body":"very unlikely that I would have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":521.609,"endTime":525.209,"body":"observed this magnitude of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":521.609,"endTime":525.209,"body":"relation. And so I reject that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":525.209,"endTime":529.169,"body":"No. Or sometimes we say nil"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":525.209,"endTime":529.169,"body":"hypothesis, right? Because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":529.169,"endTime":531.989,"body":"there's nothing going on in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":529.169,"endTime":531.989,"body":"favor of saying there is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":531.989,"endTime":533.969,"body":"something going on."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":533.999,"endTime":536.249,"body":"Well, that's the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":533.999,"endTime":536.249,"body":"cowardly part. We've talked"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":536.249,"endTime":539.789,"body":"about this before, which is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":536.249,"endTime":539.789,"body":"either the means are precisely"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":539.789,"endTime":542.159,"body":"equal or they're not."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":542.58,"endTime":546.18,"body":"Yeah. So then let me flip"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":542.58,"endTime":546.18,"body":"this on you. And I'm not trying"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":546.18,"endTime":549.12,"body":"to pop quiz you here. I just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":546.18,"endTime":549.12,"body":"want to hear the words that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":549.12,"endTime":554.13,"body":"say. So that was when we reject"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":549.12,"endTime":554.13,"body":"a null hypothesis. What words do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":554.13,"endTime":559.53,"body":"you use when you don't show"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":554.13,"endTime":559.53,"body":"that? That's a good one."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":560.52,"endTime":563.7,"body":"Well, from a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":560.52,"endTime":563.7,"body":"statistical standpoint, there is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":563.73,"endTime":568.65,"body":"insufficient empirical evidence"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":563.73,"endTime":568.65,"body":"to say that my observed"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":568.68,"endTime":573.36,"body":"difference between means would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":568.68,"endTime":573.36,"body":"have been unlikely given the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":573.36,"endTime":578.22,"body":"null hypothesis, that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":573.36,"endTime":578.22,"body":"statistical substantively what I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":578.22,"endTime":583.44,"body":"would say is from a Popperian"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":578.22,"endTime":583.44,"body":"standpoint, we have insufficient"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":583.44,"endTime":587.61,"body":"empirical evidence to falsify or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":583.44,"endTime":587.61,"body":"no hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":587.64,"endTime":592.95,"body":"Wow, that was a clinic on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":587.64,"endTime":592.95,"body":"why people hate us. Did your mom"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":592.95,"endTime":595.08,"body":"teach you that? Thanks mister"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":592.95,"endTime":595.08,"body":"see mom"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":595.08,"endTime":597.42,"body":"also Okay, so for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":595.08,"endTime":597.42,"body":"talking parenting. Here's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":597.42,"endTime":600.63,"body":"another one I learned from my"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":597.42,"endTime":600.63,"body":"mom and folks for Those of you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":600.63,"endTime":603.72,"body":"have young kids, this is an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":600.63,"endTime":603.72,"body":"awesome one. And you can think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":603.72,"endTime":607.8,"body":"Dolores, for this. Kids is all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":603.72,"endTime":607.8,"body":"about making their own decision."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":607.92,"endTime":612.57,"body":"So Greg, it's completely up to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":607.92,"endTime":612.57,"body":"you. Do you want to take a bath"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":612.57,"endTime":616.41,"body":"before dinner? Or do you want to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":612.57,"endTime":616.41,"body":"take a bath after dinner? You"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":616.41,"endTime":621.75,"body":"decide cuz you're a big boy now."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":616.41,"endTime":621.75,"body":"I was like, 17, when I was like"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":621.75,"endTime":624.54,"body":"son of a bitch, I'm taking a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":621.75,"endTime":624.54,"body":"bath either way."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":625.83,"endTime":628.26,"body":"Well, you know, the cagey"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":625.83,"endTime":628.26,"body":"language that you use, in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":628.26,"endTime":631.59,"body":"end, when you retain the null"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":628.26,"endTime":631.59,"body":"hypothesis, we find ourselves in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":631.59,"endTime":635.22,"body":"this really weird place. So I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":631.59,"endTime":635.22,"body":"like what you say that, well, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":635.22,"endTime":637.65,"body":"didn't have enough evidence to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":635.22,"endTime":637.65,"body":"reject the null hypothesis,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":638.01,"endTime":641.61,"body":"people are often tempted to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":638.01,"endTime":641.61,"body":"conclude that there is no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":641.61,"endTime":645.57,"body":"difference, then write that if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":641.61,"endTime":645.57,"body":"we retain the null hypothesis,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":645.6,"endTime":648.87,"body":"and even the language that I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":645.6,"endTime":648.87,"body":"using is intentionally guarded."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":649.08,"endTime":651.39,"body":"Some textbooks will actually say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":649.08,"endTime":651.39,"body":"that we accept the null"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":651.39,"endTime":654.6,"body":"hypothesis, and I hate that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":651.39,"endTime":654.6,"body":"language. That's just incorrect."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":654.6,"endTime":657.45,"body":"Yeah. Right. Because that almost"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":654.6,"endTime":657.45,"body":"gives someone license to say,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":657.45,"endTime":660.12,"body":"well, I guess the means are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":657.45,"endTime":660.12,"body":"equal, then, you know, I grew up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":660.12,"endTime":663.75,"body":"softening it to retain but there"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":660.12,"endTime":663.75,"body":"really is merit in saying"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":663.75,"endTime":667.35,"body":"clumsily, that we failed to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":663.75,"endTime":667.35,"body":"reject the null hypothesis that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":667.35,"endTime":670.47,"body":"we failed to find evidence of a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":667.35,"endTime":670.47,"body":"difference, which is not the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":670.47,"endTime":673.53,"body":"same as saying there's no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":670.47,"endTime":673.53,"body":"difference. But I will tell you,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":673.56,"endTime":678.18,"body":"there are other times when we do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":673.56,"endTime":678.18,"body":"exactly that, we make that exact"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":678.18,"endTime":683.07,"body":"inference. Think about if you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":678.18,"endTime":683.07,"body":"were doing a classic t test,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":683.1,"endTime":686.82,"body":"right, just a pooled variance t"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":683.1,"endTime":686.82,"body":"test. Some people just plow"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":686.82,"endTime":690.06,"body":"right ahead and do that t test."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":686.82,"endTime":690.06,"body":"Other people will say, Well, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":690.06,"endTime":692.61,"body":"know, that rests on an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":690.06,"endTime":692.61,"body":"assumption of homogeneity of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":692.61,"endTime":696.0,"body":"variance with a Okay, good. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":692.61,"endTime":696.0,"body":"how are you going to test that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":696.0,"endTime":698.43,"body":"assumption of homogeneity of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":696.0,"endTime":698.43,"body":"variance? And the answer might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":698.43,"endTime":702.51,"body":"be doing an F test ratio of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":698.43,"endTime":702.51,"body":"variances of the two independent"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":702.51,"endTime":708.03,"body":"groups, it might mean doing a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":702.51,"endTime":708.03,"body":"Levine's test. But what happens"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":708.03,"endTime":712.02,"body":"when someone doesn't reject that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":708.03,"endTime":712.02,"body":"test? What do they do? They plow"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":712.02,"endTime":714.93,"body":"right ahead with the pooled"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":712.02,"endTime":714.93,"body":"variance t test thinking that,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":714.93,"endTime":718.05,"body":"Oh, I guess the variances in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":714.93,"endTime":718.05,"body":"those populations aren't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":718.05,"endTime":720.72,"body":"different. So I've met the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":718.05,"endTime":720.72,"body":"assumption that underlies that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":720.72,"endTime":723.99,"body":"particular t test. And when they"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":720.72,"endTime":723.99,"body":"were testing the assumption of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":723.99,"endTime":726.9,"body":"homogeneity of variance, they"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":723.99,"endTime":726.9,"body":"actually took a failure to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":726.9,"endTime":730.77,"body":"reject as saying, Oh, I guess"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":726.9,"endTime":730.77,"body":"things are equal. So we do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":730.77,"endTime":732.0,"body":"exactly that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":732.06,"endTime":735.69,"body":"And we also pick and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":732.06,"endTime":735.69,"body":"choose, right is that if we fail"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":735.69,"endTime":738.42,"body":"to reject the null of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":735.69,"endTime":738.42,"body":"homogeneity of variance, that's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":738.42,"endTime":742.92,"body":"because the variances are equal."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":738.42,"endTime":742.92,"body":"But if we fail to reject the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":742.92,"endTime":745.47,"body":"equality of the mean, it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":742.92,"endTime":745.47,"body":"because we don't have sufficient"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":745.47,"endTime":747.0,"body":"power to detect the effects."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":747.42,"endTime":751.41,"body":"Isn't that convenient?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":747.42,"endTime":751.41,"body":"Yeah, we do that with invariance"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":751.41,"endTime":754.68,"body":"testing, too, right? That we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":751.41,"endTime":754.68,"body":"wind up setting up this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":754.68,"endTime":757.29,"body":"measurement model for these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":754.68,"endTime":757.29,"body":"different groups that we want to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":757.29,"endTime":761.01,"body":"know that these variables are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":757.29,"endTime":761.01,"body":"loading the same. And in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":761.01,"endTime":764.04,"body":"end, we wind up doing a test"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":761.01,"endTime":764.04,"body":"where we might have loadings"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":764.04,"endTime":767.97,"body":"constrained across these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":764.04,"endTime":767.97,"body":"populations against a model"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":767.97,"endTime":771.24,"body":"where the loadings are not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":767.97,"endTime":771.24,"body":"constrained. And if we get no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":771.24,"endTime":774.24,"body":"significant difference, what do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":771.24,"endTime":774.24,"body":"we say they're equivalent across"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":774.24,"endTime":777.99,"body":"the two groups? There you go."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":774.24,"endTime":777.99,"body":"And so we have this logic"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":777.99,"endTime":782.37,"body":"problem, where we're using the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":777.99,"endTime":782.37,"body":"non significance of a test as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":782.37,"endTime":785.04,"body":"evidence that there is no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":782.37,"endTime":785.04,"body":"difference. And we're doing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":785.04,"endTime":787.71,"body":"exactly what you say we're sort"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":785.04,"endTime":787.71,"body":"of picking and choosing right"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":787.71,"endTime":790.92,"body":"there are these times where we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":787.71,"endTime":790.92,"body":"are kind of sort of hoping for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":790.92,"endTime":794.67,"body":"equivalence. So we take that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":790.92,"endTime":794.67,"body":"failure to reject as evidence of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":794.67,"endTime":797.82,"body":"equivalence. And there are other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":794.67,"endTime":797.82,"body":"times where we kind of sort of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":797.82,"endTime":801.18,"body":"really want a difference, and we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":797.82,"endTime":801.18,"body":"failed to find it. So we say,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":801.18,"endTime":803.73,"body":"well, we just didn't have enough"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":801.18,"endTime":803.73,"body":"power to find it. How would"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":803.73,"endTime":807.48,"body":"you differentiate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":803.73,"endTime":807.48,"body":"equality from equivalents?"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":807.6,"endTime":810.9,"body":"Because you've been like a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":807.6,"endTime":810.9,"body":"dolphin in and out of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":810.9,"endTime":817.53,"body":"terms? Okay. Up, down, up, down,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":810.9,"endTime":817.53,"body":"up, down. Have you seen the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":817.53,"endTime":821.7,"body":"movie Hitchhiker's Guide to the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":817.53,"endTime":821.7,"body":"Galaxy? Read the books saw the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":821.7,"endTime":825.42,"body":"movie? Well, the greatest"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":821.7,"endTime":825.42,"body":"opening film sequence of any"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":825.42,"endTime":828.48,"body":"movie is that, folks, if you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":825.42,"endTime":828.48,"body":"haven't seen this, either watch"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":828.48,"endTime":831.42,"body":"the movie, which is brilliant,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":828.48,"endTime":831.42,"body":"or go to YouTube and watch the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":831.42,"endTime":836.07,"body":"opening. It's a song about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":831.42,"endTime":836.07,"body":"dolphins, and it's so long, so"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":836.07,"endTime":838.23,"body":"long, so long. Thanks for all"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":836.07,"endTime":838.23,"body":"the fish."},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":840.45,"endTime":843.96,"body":"The last ever dolphin"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":840.45,"endTime":843.96,"body":"message was misinterpreted as a"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":843.96,"endTime":846.78,"body":"surprisingly sophisticated"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":843.96,"endTime":846.78,"body":"attempt to do a double backward"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":846.78,"endTime":849.78,"body":"somersault through a hoop while"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":846.78,"endTime":849.78,"body":"whistling The Star Spangled"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":849.78,"endTime":854.04,"body":"Banner. But in fact, the message"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":849.78,"endTime":854.04,"body":"was this So Long, and Thanks for"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":854.04,"endTime":854.67,"body":"All the Fish."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":856.32,"endTime":861.03,"body":"Thanks for all. So sad"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":856.32,"endTime":861.03,"body":"that you come to this. Anyway,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":861.18,"endTime":864.06,"body":"equality versus equivalence go."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":864.24,"endTime":867.48,"body":"Oh, so you kind of saw"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":864.24,"endTime":867.48,"body":"through everything right there."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":867.51,"endTime":869.76,"body":"I don't know if you got that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":867.51,"endTime":869.76,"body":"from your mom, you must have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":869.79,"endTime":873.03,"body":"because you couldn't have come"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":869.79,"endTime":873.03,"body":"up with that on your own. Yeah,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":873.03,"endTime":875.52,"body":"you're exactly right. So when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":873.03,"endTime":875.52,"body":"things are equal, or have a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":875.52,"endTime":878.22,"body":"quality than they are dead on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":875.52,"endTime":878.22,"body":"those means are exactly the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":878.22,"endTime":882.24,"body":"same. That correlation is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":878.22,"endTime":882.24,"body":"exactly zero. That predictor has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":882.24,"endTime":885.9,"body":"exactly no contribution. Those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":882.24,"endTime":885.9,"body":"loadings are exactly the same"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":885.9,"endTime":889.29,"body":"across the different"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":885.9,"endTime":889.29,"body":"populations. But equivalence to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":889.29,"endTime":892.92,"body":"me has a little bit more fuzz"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":889.29,"endTime":892.92,"body":"and it feels a little bit more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":892.92,"endTime":897.21,"body":"like was it Annie? Who was the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":892.92,"endTime":897.21,"body":"one who was driving yes and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":897.9,"endTime":902.55,"body":"right. And so if we say the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":897.9,"endTime":902.55,"body":"speed limited Is this 55? I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":902.55,"endTime":908.52,"body":"mean, is it exactly 55? Is it 55"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":902.55,"endTime":908.52,"body":"plus or minus five miles an hour"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":908.55,"endTime":911.76,"body":"plus or minus 10 miles an hour,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":908.55,"endTime":911.76,"body":"there's a very specific"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":911.76,"endTime":915.69,"body":"definition of limit. But in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":911.76,"endTime":915.69,"body":"practice, there is this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":915.69,"endTime":918.93,"body":"practical equivalence to 55"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":915.69,"endTime":918.93,"body":"miles an hour."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":924.42,"endTime":929.58,"body":"And I think our hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":924.42,"endTime":929.58,"body":"testing lives are so set up to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":929.61,"endTime":933.6,"body":"aim everything at rejection, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":929.61,"endTime":933.6,"body":"forget that there are a lot of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":933.6,"endTime":936.6,"body":"cases where we are more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":933.6,"endTime":936.6,"body":"interested in the equivalence of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":936.6,"endTime":939.75,"body":"things, then we are actually in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":936.6,"endTime":939.75,"body":"establishing a difference. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":939.75,"endTime":942.15,"body":"we can't use the hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":939.75,"endTime":942.15,"body":"testing framework the way it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":942.15,"endTime":945.54,"body":"currently set up to try to get"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":942.15,"endTime":945.54,"body":"at that. And these kinds of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":945.54,"endTime":949.41,"body":"ideas of equivalence come up all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":945.54,"endTime":949.41,"body":"the time. You know, like when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":949.41,"endTime":953.58,"body":"we're testing assumptions of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":949.41,"endTime":953.58,"body":"things, or imagine we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":953.61,"endTime":957.72,"body":"intact groups that we are doing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":953.61,"endTime":957.72,"body":"as part of a study. But we want"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":957.72,"endTime":960.84,"body":"to know whether or not those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":957.72,"endTime":960.84,"body":"groups are equivalent at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.84,"endTime":964.89,"body":"baseline. More broadly, if we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":960.84,"endTime":964.89,"body":"are in the pharmaceutical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":964.89,"endTime":969.21,"body":"industry, and we have a new drug"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":964.89,"endTime":969.21,"body":"that's a lot cheaper, we might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":969.21,"endTime":973.29,"body":"want to know whether that drug"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":969.21,"endTime":973.29,"body":"performs the same or at least"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":973.29,"endTime":976.86,"body":"equivalent to some existing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":973.29,"endTime":976.86,"body":"drug, does it lower blood"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":976.86,"endTime":979.95,"body":"pressure, if not exactly the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":976.86,"endTime":979.95,"body":"same amount as a more expensive"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":979.95,"endTime":984.33,"body":"drug? Close enough. So this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":979.95,"endTime":984.33,"body":"concept of equivalent exists all"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":984.33,"endTime":988.14,"body":"the time and things that we do,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":984.33,"endTime":988.14,"body":"but we haven't really turned our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":988.14,"endTime":992.07,"body":"hypothesis testing lens properly"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":988.14,"endTime":992.07,"body":"on these kinds of research"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":992.07,"endTime":992.82,"body":"questions."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":992.85,"endTime":996.42,"body":"And the end of the day"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":992.85,"endTime":996.42,"body":"is how big is big enough right"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":996.45,"endTime":999.33,"body":"to say that there's a difference"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":996.45,"endTime":999.33,"body":"that's meaningful and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":999.33,"endTime":1000.02,"body":"worthwhile,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1000.05,"endTime":1002.12,"body":"which is something that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1000.05,"endTime":1002.12,"body":"have to do all the time, when"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1002.12,"endTime":1004.37,"body":"we're talking about power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1002.12,"endTime":1004.37,"body":"analysis and planning for a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1004.37,"endTime":1008.48,"body":"study in which our goal, our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1004.37,"endTime":1008.48,"body":"hope is to be able to find"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1008.48,"endTime":1011.9,"body":"something. But here, we're going"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1008.48,"endTime":1011.9,"body":"to flip it the other way, and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1011.9,"endTime":1016.22,"body":"talk about what it means for two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1011.9,"endTime":1016.22,"body":"things to be equivalent. So both"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1016.22,"endTime":1020.69,"body":"of our kids took the LSAT last"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1016.22,"endTime":1020.69,"body":"year. And if they wanted to take"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1020.69,"endTime":1023.54,"body":"a prep course, they could have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1020.69,"endTime":1023.54,"body":"taken very, very expensive prep"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1023.54,"endTime":1026.93,"body":"courses, they could have taken"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1023.54,"endTime":1026.93,"body":"cheap online stuff, you know,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1026.93,"endTime":1030.68,"body":"someone might make the claim"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1026.93,"endTime":1030.68,"body":"that our online materials are as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1030.68,"endTime":1033.11,"body":"good as one of those really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1030.68,"endTime":1033.11,"body":"expensive courses. Well, what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1033.11,"endTime":1036.2,"body":"does that mean? Does that mean"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1033.11,"endTime":1036.2,"body":"that the scores you get under"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1036.2,"endTime":1040.31,"body":"one course are exactly the same"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1036.2,"endTime":1040.31,"body":"on average as the other? Or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1040.37,"endTime":1043.37,"body":"might we call them equivalent?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1040.37,"endTime":1043.37,"body":"If on average, they don't differ"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1043.37,"endTime":1047.36,"body":"by more than 10 points or 20"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1043.37,"endTime":1047.36,"body":"points, we could define what"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1047.36,"endTime":1050.72,"body":"that threshold is for what we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1047.36,"endTime":1050.72,"body":"might call practical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1050.75,"endTime":1054.05,"body":"equivalence. Or if there are two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1050.75,"endTime":1054.05,"body":"medications that are supposed to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1054.05,"endTime":1057.98,"body":"lower systolic blood pressure or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1054.05,"endTime":1057.98,"body":"diastolic I get those mixed up"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1057.98,"endTime":1063.38,"body":"which one is which one is which?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1057.98,"endTime":1063.38,"body":"Yeah, which"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1063.68,"endTime":1067.82,"body":"shivers the bad one. Hi,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1063.68,"endTime":1067.82,"body":"this is Dr. David justice, MD"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1067.85,"endTime":1070.79,"body":"board certified pediatric"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1067.85,"endTime":1070.79,"body":"hematology oncology and"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1070.79,"endTime":1073.52,"body":"Transfusion Medicine Physician"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1070.79,"endTime":1073.52,"body":"at Boston Children's Hospital,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1073.7,"endTime":1077.06,"body":"epidemiological and treatment"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1073.7,"endTime":1077.06,"body":"studies suggest that systolic"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1077.06,"endTime":1079.16,"body":"blood pressure should be the"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1077.06,"endTime":1079.16,"body":"primary target of"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1079.16,"endTime":1082.19,"body":"antihypertensive therapy,"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1079.16,"endTime":1082.19,"body":"although consideration of"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1082.19,"endTime":1085.16,"body":"systolic and diastolic pressure"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1082.19,"endTime":1085.16,"body":"together improves risk"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1085.16,"endTime":1088.16,"body":"prediction. Come on, guys, you"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1085.16,"endTime":1088.16,"body":"can just google this stuff like"},{"speaker":"Insert","startTime":1088.16,"endTime":1088.4,"body":"us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1088.43,"endTime":1092.27,"body":"real doctors do. Well,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1088.43,"endTime":1092.27,"body":"thank you real doctor. But if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1092.27,"endTime":1094.25,"body":"there are two medications, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1092.27,"endTime":1094.25,"body":"might say, yeah, these"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1094.25,"endTime":1098.06,"body":"medications are practically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1094.25,"endTime":1098.06,"body":"equivalent if systolic blood"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1098.06,"endTime":1102.86,"body":"pressure is within 10 points, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1098.06,"endTime":1102.86,"body":"if you are correlating two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1102.86,"endTime":1106.79,"body":"variables, and I say I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1102.86,"endTime":1106.79,"body":"those variables correlate zero."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1107.0,"endTime":1110.06,"body":"I mean, they probably don't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1107.0,"endTime":1110.06,"body":"correlate exactly zero, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1110.09,"endTime":1114.35,"body":"maybe you define zero is within"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1110.09,"endTime":1114.35,"body":"plus or minus point one of zero"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1114.38,"endTime":1118.55,"body":"or plus or minus point oh five"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1114.38,"endTime":1118.55,"body":"of zero. So the point is that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1118.55,"endTime":1122.0,"body":"can define what we mean by"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1118.55,"endTime":1122.0,"body":"equivalence, we can define that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1122.0,"endTime":1126.74,"body":"band around your speed, your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1122.0,"endTime":1126.74,"body":"your speed limit, which seems to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1126.74,"endTime":1131.12,"body":"only be an interval on the upper"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1126.74,"endTime":1131.12,"body":"end, we don't tend to worry. No,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1131.119,"endTime":1133.759,"body":"but that's a real"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1131.119,"endTime":1133.759,"body":"thing. I like to think of it as"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1133.759,"endTime":1137.839,"body":"a caliper. Like if you're within"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1133.759,"endTime":1137.839,"body":"this tolerance, however you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1137.839,"endTime":1140.869,"body":"define that. We're just going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1137.839,"endTime":1140.869,"body":"consider those all to be the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1140.869,"endTime":1146.689,"body":"same. You're going 6566 67. If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1140.869,"endTime":1146.689,"body":"we had sufficient equipment with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1146.689,"endTime":1152.329,"body":"sufficient accuracy, we could"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1146.689,"endTime":1152.329,"body":"differentiate 67 from 66 miles"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1152.329,"endTime":1157.849,"body":"an hour, but nobody cares. If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1152.329,"endTime":1157.849,"body":"you're going above 56 miles an"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1157.849,"endTime":1162.709,"body":"hour and below 74 miles an hour."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1157.849,"endTime":1162.709,"body":"Nobody cares. Yeah, that"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1162.709,"endTime":1165.859,"body":"caliber, but if you're going"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1162.709,"endTime":1165.859,"body":"slower, you might get pulled"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1165.859,"endTime":1168.559,"body":"over because you're impeding"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1165.859,"endTime":1168.559,"body":"traffic. If you're going faster,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1168.589,"endTime":1171.139,"body":"you're gonna get pulled over"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1168.589,"endTime":1171.139,"body":"because you're driving too fast."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1171.409,"endTime":1175.609,"body":"But it seems that Howard Waner"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1171.409,"endTime":1175.609,"body":"It don't make no nevermind. If"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1175.609,"endTime":1178.159,"body":"you're under 10 miles an hour of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1175.609,"endTime":1178.159,"body":"the posted limit, you're"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1178.159,"endTime":1179.929,"body":"probably going to be fine."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1178.159,"endTime":1179.929,"body":"Nobody cares."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1179.99,"endTime":1183.29,"body":"And so if we want to do a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1179.99,"endTime":1183.29,"body":"formal statistical test of this,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1183.32,"endTime":1186.32,"body":"the null hypothesis significance"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1183.32,"endTime":1186.32,"body":"testing that we're accustomed to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1186.32,"endTime":1190.82,"body":"doing, the way it is framed,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1186.32,"endTime":1190.82,"body":"we're always aiming to sort of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1190.82,"endTime":1194.24,"body":"reject out right using the mean"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1190.82,"endTime":1194.24,"body":"difference example or the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1194.24,"endTime":1197.45,"body":"correlation example. We're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1194.24,"endTime":1197.45,"body":"always aiming to reject zero or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1197.45,"endTime":1200.6,"body":"whatever the value is that we're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1197.45,"endTime":1200.6,"body":"looking at. But we Imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1200.6,"endTime":1204.62,"body":"flipping that test and thinking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1200.6,"endTime":1204.62,"body":"instead about what I'm really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1204.62,"endTime":1208.88,"body":"kind of clumsily calling,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1204.62,"endTime":1208.88,"body":"rejecting in. Imagine that you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1208.88,"endTime":1213.56,"body":"have set up a null hypothesis."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1208.88,"endTime":1213.56,"body":"It's a weird null hypothesis,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1213.56,"endTime":1216.62,"body":"right? The null hypothesis we're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1213.56,"endTime":1216.62,"body":"accustomed to doing is something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1216.62,"endTime":1219.53,"body":"like, I'll do one for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1216.62,"endTime":1219.53,"body":"correlation. For example, our"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1219.53,"endTime":1224.15,"body":"null hypothesis is that row the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1219.53,"endTime":1224.15,"body":"population correlation is zero."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1224.48,"endTime":1228.74,"body":"But we could instead set up a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1224.48,"endTime":1228.74,"body":"null hypothesis that says the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1228.74,"endTime":1233.87,"body":"correlation between two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1228.74,"endTime":1233.87,"body":"variables is point one or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1233.87,"endTime":1239.54,"body":"greater, or to compound No, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1233.87,"endTime":1239.54,"body":"apotheosis, negative point one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1239.6,"endTime":1243.74,"body":"or lower, which means stronger."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1239.6,"endTime":1243.74,"body":"So imagine the null hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1243.86,"endTime":1247.64,"body":"defines this region that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1243.86,"endTime":1247.64,"body":"outside where we would say, oh,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1247.64,"endTime":1251.21,"body":"yeah, that's a real correlation."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1247.64,"endTime":1251.21,"body":"And then the alternative to that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1251.21,"endTime":1254.9,"body":"is that our correlation in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1251.21,"endTime":1254.9,"body":"population actually fall"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1254.9,"endTime":1258.89,"body":"somewhere between negative point"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1254.9,"endTime":1258.89,"body":"one zero and positive point one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1258.89,"endTime":1262.43,"body":"zero, a region where we might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1258.89,"endTime":1262.43,"body":"say, that is practically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1262.43,"endTime":1265.97,"body":"equivalent to there being no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1262.43,"endTime":1265.97,"body":"correlation. Well, if we flip"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1265.97,"endTime":1268.64,"body":"the null and alternative"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1265.97,"endTime":1268.64,"body":"hypotheses like that, we can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1268.64,"endTime":1272.45,"body":"actually use hypothesis testing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1268.64,"endTime":1272.45,"body":"procedures to try to test"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1272.45,"endTime":1275.69,"body":"whether or not we could consider"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1272.45,"endTime":1275.69,"body":"that correlation to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1275.69,"endTime":1278.72,"body":"practically equivalent to zero,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1275.69,"endTime":1278.72,"body":"where the difference between two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1278.72,"endTime":1281.51,"body":"means being practically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1278.72,"endTime":1281.51,"body":"equivalent to zero,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1281.57,"endTime":1285.38,"body":"and that map's exactly"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1281.57,"endTime":1285.38,"body":"on to this issue by Irish factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1285.38,"endTime":1291.02,"body":"loadings are in O'Shaughnessy,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1285.38,"endTime":1291.02,"body":"Oh, 305. If you have a factor"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1291.02,"endTime":1294.32,"body":"loadings that has a leading"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1291.02,"endTime":1294.32,"body":"digit of zero, nobody cares,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1294.35,"endTime":1297.89,"body":"right? Oh, 703, negative Oh,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1294.35,"endTime":1297.89,"body":"four. It's like, yeah, it's just"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1297.89,"endTime":1301.79,"body":"hovering around zero. Nobody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1297.89,"endTime":1301.79,"body":"cares. But you make some caliper"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1301.79,"endTime":1305.42,"body":"where if the factor loading is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1301.79,"endTime":1305.42,"body":"above point one, or below"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1305.42,"endTime":1309.32,"body":"negative point one as a cross"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1305.42,"endTime":1309.32,"body":"loading, then I gotta figure out"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1309.32,"endTime":1312.56,"body":"what to do with that. So we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1309.32,"endTime":1312.56,"body":"think about this all the time,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1312.56,"endTime":1316.97,"body":"and indeed, we grouse about it a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1312.56,"endTime":1316.97,"body":"lot. Because in CFA going to"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1316.97,"endTime":1321.71,"body":"that null hypothesis, we say"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1316.97,"endTime":1321.71,"body":"that factor loading is zero."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1321.77,"endTime":1325.04,"body":"Yeah, and here we're shrugging"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1321.77,"endTime":1325.04,"body":"you work for State University I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1325.04,"endTime":1328.16,"body":"work for a state university is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1325.04,"endTime":1328.16,"body":"to say, I don't believe it's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1328.16,"endTime":1332.45,"body":"exactly zero in the population."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1328.16,"endTime":1332.45,"body":"But as long as it has a leading"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1332.45,"endTime":1335.66,"body":"digit of zero in the value, I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1332.45,"endTime":1335.66,"body":"can sleep at night. So there"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1335.66,"endTime":1339.29,"body":"are two things going on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1335.66,"endTime":1339.29,"body":"here. One is setting up what you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1339.29,"endTime":1342.74,"body":"think that threshold is, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1339.29,"endTime":1342.74,"body":"those boundaries are for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1342.74,"endTime":1345.77,"body":"defining practical equivalence,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1342.74,"endTime":1345.77,"body":"and then figuring out the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1345.77,"endTime":1349.13,"body":"appropriate statistical test for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1345.77,"endTime":1349.13,"body":"you to do or actually"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1349.31,"endTime":1352.46,"body":"statistical tests, in fact,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1349.31,"endTime":1352.46,"body":"right, because in the example we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1352.46,"endTime":1355.46,"body":"were talking about, you could be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1352.46,"endTime":1355.46,"body":"convinced there actually is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1355.46,"endTime":1358.82,"body":"nonzero correlation if it was"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1355.46,"endTime":1358.82,"body":"something sufficiently positive,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1359.06,"endTime":1362.12,"body":"or if it was something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1359.06,"endTime":1362.12,"body":"sufficiently negative. So how"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1362.12,"endTime":1365.39,"body":"would we go about figuring that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1362.12,"endTime":1365.39,"body":"out? Well, there are hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1365.39,"endTime":1368.75,"body":"testing ways to do it. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1365.39,"endTime":1368.75,"body":"there's sometimes go by the name"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1368.78,"endTime":1372.5,"body":"equivalence tests. But I think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1368.78,"endTime":1372.5,"body":"there's a very easy way to think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1372.5,"endTime":1375.95,"body":"about it just in terms of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1372.5,"endTime":1375.95,"body":"confidence intervals. And the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1375.95,"endTime":1379.97,"body":"confidence intervals wind up for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1375.95,"endTime":1379.97,"body":"most things, accomplishing this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1379.97,"endTime":1385.25,"body":"idea of having two hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1379.97,"endTime":1385.25,"body":"tests that are testing inward"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1385.25,"endTime":1388.76,"body":"from the left and inward from"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1385.25,"endTime":1388.76,"body":"the right. So I want to think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1388.76,"endTime":1391.37,"body":"about things from the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1388.76,"endTime":1391.37,"body":"perspective of a confidence"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1391.37,"endTime":1394.28,"body":"interval. First, let's think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1391.37,"endTime":1394.28,"body":"about the difference between two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1394.28,"endTime":1398.18,"body":"means. Let's think about the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1394.28,"endTime":1398.18,"body":"LSAT scores. And imagine we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1398.18,"endTime":1402.98,"body":"two LSAT prep courses, and we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1398.18,"endTime":1402.98,"body":"decide if they produce scores"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1402.98,"endTime":1406.82,"body":"with mean differences of less"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1402.98,"endTime":1406.82,"body":"than 10 points, positive or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1406.82,"endTime":1409.73,"body":"negative, we will go ahead and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1406.82,"endTime":1409.73,"body":"call them practically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1409.73,"endTime":1413.69,"body":"equivalent. Well, so if we go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1409.73,"endTime":1413.69,"body":"ahead and do a study and create"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1413.69,"endTime":1416.33,"body":"a confidence interval for the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1413.69,"endTime":1416.33,"body":"difference between those two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1416.33,"endTime":1420.02,"body":"means that confidence interval"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1416.33,"endTime":1420.02,"body":"actually is informative from a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1420.02,"endTime":1423.35,"body":"hypothesis testing standpoint."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1420.02,"endTime":1423.35,"body":"Now when I think about this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1423.35,"endTime":1426.29,"body":"example, I'm going to think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1423.35,"endTime":1426.29,"body":"about it in a really weird way."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1426.65,"endTime":1428.66,"body":"You know, I used to take Sydney"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1426.65,"endTime":1428.66,"body":"to dolphin show. I don't even"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1428.66,"endTime":1431.57,"body":"think dolphin shows exist"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1428.66,"endTime":1431.57,"body":"anymore. Like at our Baltimore"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1431.57,"endTime":1434.0,"body":"aquarium, which is a really nice"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1431.57,"endTime":1434.0,"body":"aquarium. There's no more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1434.0,"endTime":1436.79,"body":"dolphin show. I sticks Sydney to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1434.0,"endTime":1436.79,"body":"the dolphin shows. I couldn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1436.79,"endTime":1439.28,"body":"take the boys to the dolphin"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1436.79,"endTime":1439.28,"body":"show. So whether we're thinking"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1439.28,"endTime":1443.54,"body":"about a dolphin show, or this is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1439.28,"endTime":1443.54,"body":"so dated a Gallagher comedy"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1443.54,"endTime":1445.73,"body":"show, do you remember Gallagher"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1443.54,"endTime":1445.73,"body":"at all? Oh, yeah,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1445.73,"endTime":1452.0,"body":"he smashed the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1445.73,"endTime":1452.0,"body":"watermelons. Exactly. helped me"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1452.0,"endTime":1453.44,"body":"to despatch this melody"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1460.04,"endTime":1462.89,"body":"It's a little known fact is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1460.04,"endTime":1462.89,"body":"early in his career, he actually"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1462.89,"endTime":1468.59,"body":"smashed dolphins But Peter got"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1462.89,"endTime":1468.59,"body":"to water. Okay."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1470.39,"endTime":1473.15,"body":"That makes what I'm about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1470.39,"endTime":1473.15,"body":"to say that much more"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1473.15,"endTime":1476.93,"body":"disturbing. Imagine you imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1473.15,"endTime":1476.93,"body":"you and I are sitting in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1476.93,"endTime":1481.73,"body":"front row of whether it's a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1476.93,"endTime":1481.73,"body":"dolphin show or a Gallagher show"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1481.76,"endTime":1487.04,"body":"or an early Gallagher show."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1481.76,"endTime":1487.04,"body":"Which is the best of both"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1487.04,"endTime":1487.61,"body":"worlds."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1490.099,"endTime":1493.489,"body":"You did not want to sit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1490.099,"endTime":1493.489,"body":"in the front row for his early"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1493.489,"endTime":1494.059,"body":"shows."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1495.109,"endTime":1497.239,"body":"You and I are in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1495.109,"endTime":1497.239,"body":"splash zone or at least"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1497.239,"endTime":1501.499,"body":"potentially in the splash zone"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1497.239,"endTime":1501.499,"body":"and I am going Have you seated"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1501.499,"endTime":1505.519,"body":"at a seat that is marked with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1501.499,"endTime":1505.519,"body":"zero, and that zero represents"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1505.519,"endTime":1509.539,"body":"no population difference between"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1505.519,"endTime":1509.539,"body":"these two SATs prep courses on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1509.539,"endTime":1515.059,"body":"average, and I am going to go"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1509.539,"endTime":1515.059,"body":"sit out at 10 points. And so we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1515.059,"endTime":1518.269,"body":"have the dolphin show, the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1515.059,"endTime":1518.269,"body":"Gallagher show or the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1518.299,"endTime":1522.439,"body":"combination thereof. And in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1518.299,"endTime":1522.439,"body":"end, there's a certain splash"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1522.469,"endTime":1526.189,"body":"that occurs as a result of this."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1522.469,"endTime":1526.189,"body":"This is disturbing to think"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1526.189,"endTime":1529.879,"body":"about. The question is, how big"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1526.189,"endTime":1529.879,"body":"is the splash? Right? Does the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1529.879,"endTime":1534.709,"body":"splash include zero? Does the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1529.879,"endTime":1534.709,"body":"splash include 10 points? Does"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1534.709,"endTime":1538.309,"body":"it include one both neither. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1534.709,"endTime":1538.309,"body":"those lead us to different"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1538.309,"endTime":1541.609,"body":"potential conclusions, just like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1538.309,"endTime":1541.609,"body":"a confidence interval would"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1541.669,"endTime":1543.799,"body":"write so we build a confidence"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1541.669,"endTime":1543.799,"body":"interval around the difference"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1543.799,"endTime":1547.399,"body":"between two means, and it might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1543.799,"endTime":1547.399,"body":"include zero, it might include"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1547.399,"endTime":1551.209,"body":"10 points, it might include one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1547.399,"endTime":1551.209,"body":"might include neither, there are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1551.209,"endTime":1554.389,"body":"four different possibilities for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1551.209,"endTime":1554.389,"body":"what we're talking about. The"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1554.389,"endTime":1558.019,"body":"first one is, let's imagine you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1554.389,"endTime":1558.019,"body":"and I both get wet and wet."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1558.829,"endTime":1561.049,"body":"Let's just keep it at water or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1558.829,"endTime":1561.049,"body":"watermelon."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1561.439,"endTime":1562.729,"body":"I caught the blowhole."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1564.859,"endTime":1567.439,"body":"I'm telling you, the art"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1564.859,"endTime":1567.439,"body":"for this episode is just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1567.439,"endTime":1571.549,"body":"creating itself. Alright, so"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1567.439,"endTime":1571.549,"body":"imagine that you and I are both"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1571.549,"endTime":1574.369,"body":"in the splash zone. Imagine that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1571.549,"endTime":1574.369,"body":"the competence interval captures"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1574.369,"endTime":1578.419,"body":"both zero and 10 point"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1574.369,"endTime":1578.419,"body":"difference. All right. So if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1578.419,"endTime":1581.929,"body":"that's the case, essentially, we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1578.419,"endTime":1581.929,"body":"can't reject zero as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1581.929,"endTime":1584.869,"body":"possibility using traditional"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1581.929,"endTime":1584.869,"body":"null hypothesis significance"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1584.869,"endTime":1589.489,"body":"testing. But we also can't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1584.869,"endTime":1589.489,"body":"reject 10 points. So this is an"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1589.489,"endTime":1593.119,"body":"example that is not conclusive"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1589.489,"endTime":1593.119,"body":"really, in any way. We can't say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1593.119,"endTime":1595.909,"body":"anything about practical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1593.119,"endTime":1595.909,"body":"equivalence, we can't say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1595.909,"endTime":1598.789,"body":"anything about difference. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1595.909,"endTime":1598.789,"body":"we're kind of stuck. So now"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1598.789,"endTime":1602.839,"body":"imagine a different scenario"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1598.789,"endTime":1602.839,"body":"where only you are in the splash"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1602.839,"endTime":1605.809,"body":"zone, the Zero gets wet. The"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1602.839,"endTime":1605.809,"body":"point that says there's no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1605.809,"endTime":1609.289,"body":"difference between the two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1605.809,"endTime":1609.289,"body":"population means, but I the 10"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1609.289,"endTime":1612.469,"body":"point difference am outside the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1609.289,"endTime":1612.469,"body":"splash zone, I am outside the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1612.469,"endTime":1615.019,"body":"competence interval, that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1612.469,"endTime":1615.019,"body":"equivalent to a regular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1615.019,"endTime":1617.929,"body":"traditional null hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1615.019,"endTime":1617.929,"body":"significance test not being"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1617.929,"endTime":1620.929,"body":"statistically significant"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1617.929,"endTime":1620.929,"body":"because it contains zero. But"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1620.959,"endTime":1625.579,"body":"the equivalence test the test of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1620.959,"endTime":1625.579,"body":"whether or not it differs from"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1625.609,"endTime":1629.719,"body":"10 points, that is statistically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1625.609,"endTime":1629.719,"body":"significant. So in that case,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1629.719,"endTime":1633.949,"body":"what we can say is that we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1629.719,"endTime":1633.949,"body":"rejected the idea of it being 10"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1633.949,"endTime":1637.999,"body":"points in favor of it being"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1633.949,"endTime":1637.999,"body":"something smaller, we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1637.999,"endTime":1641.569,"body":"determined no practically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1637.999,"endTime":1641.569,"body":"important difference between the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1641.569,"endTime":1645.769,"body":"two. So let's flip that now. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1641.569,"endTime":1645.769,"body":"imagine that you didn't get wet,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1645.769,"endTime":1648.589,"body":"you're not in the splash zone,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1645.769,"endTime":1648.589,"body":"but I'm in the splash zone. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1648.709,"endTime":1652.429,"body":"zero is outside the competence"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1648.709,"endTime":1652.429,"body":"interval. But 10 points is in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1652.429,"endTime":1655.399,"body":"the confidence interval. That"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1652.429,"endTime":1655.399,"body":"means that a traditional null"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1655.399,"endTime":1658.579,"body":"hypothesis significance test is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1655.399,"endTime":1658.579,"body":"statistically significant. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1658.579,"endTime":1663.919,"body":"it rejects zero, but hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1658.579,"endTime":1663.919,"body":"test does not reject 10 points."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1664.129,"endTime":1667.009,"body":"So in that case, we would say"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1664.129,"endTime":1667.009,"body":"something like, well, there is a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1667.009,"endTime":1670.609,"body":"difference. But we can't say if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1667.009,"endTime":1670.609,"body":"it's practically important,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1670.639,"endTime":1673.249,"body":"right? And I have to be very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1670.639,"endTime":1673.249,"body":"careful in my language, because"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1673.249,"endTime":1676.279,"body":"I didn't establish that it isn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1673.249,"endTime":1676.279,"body":"practically important. I just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1676.279,"endTime":1679.849,"body":"don't have enough evidence to be"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1676.279,"endTime":1679.849,"body":"able to say that it is trivial"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1679.879,"endTime":1683.419,"body":"or not trivial. So in that case,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1679.879,"endTime":1683.419,"body":"I wasn't able to establish"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1683.419,"endTime":1686.899,"body":"anything or make any comments"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1683.419,"endTime":1686.899,"body":"specifically about practical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1686.929,"endTime":1689.149,"body":"equivalence. Exactly."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1686.929,"endTime":1689.149,"body":"equivalence, yes, but not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1689.149,"endTime":1692.509,"body":"practical equivalence. And then"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1689.149,"endTime":1692.509,"body":"the final case is when the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1692.509,"endTime":1696.319,"body":"splashdown doesn't get either of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1692.509,"endTime":1696.319,"body":"us wet, do you as zero are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1696.319,"endTime":1699.199,"body":"sitting outside the splash zone"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1696.319,"endTime":1699.199,"body":"I at 10 points. I'm sitting"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1699.199,"endTime":1702.529,"body":"outside the splashdown. So it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1699.199,"endTime":1702.529,"body":"a little splash that came"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1702.529,"endTime":1705.919,"body":"between zero and 10 points. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1702.529,"endTime":1705.919,"body":"what that means is that a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1705.919,"endTime":1708.829,"body":"traditional null hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1705.919,"endTime":1708.829,"body":"significance test rejected the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1708.829,"endTime":1711.949,"body":"idea of there being no"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1708.829,"endTime":1711.949,"body":"difference. So we believe that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1711.949,"endTime":1715.129,"body":"there is a difference. But we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1711.949,"endTime":1715.129,"body":"also believe because the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1715.129,"endTime":1717.679,"body":"confidence interval didn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1715.129,"endTime":1717.679,"body":"include 10 points, that it is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1717.679,"endTime":1720.679,"body":"not a practically important"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1717.679,"endTime":1720.679,"body":"difference. So yeah, we have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1720.679,"endTime":1723.079,"body":"evidence that there's a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1720.679,"endTime":1723.079,"body":"difference. But we also have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1723.079,"endTime":1725.989,"body":"statistical evidence that it is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1723.079,"endTime":1725.989,"body":"not a practically important"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1725.989,"endTime":1728.809,"body":"difference. And so from a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1725.989,"endTime":1728.809,"body":"practical standpoint, we might"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1728.809,"endTime":1733.069,"body":"be able to consider these two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1728.809,"endTime":1733.069,"body":"essay T prep courses equivalent."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1733.189,"endTime":1737.389,"body":"So it's a very easy way of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1733.189,"endTime":1737.389,"body":"taking confidence intervals to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1737.389,"endTime":1740.659,"body":"essentially be conducting"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1737.389,"endTime":1740.659,"body":"different types of hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1740.659,"endTime":1743.809,"body":"tests, and then being able to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1740.659,"endTime":1743.809,"body":"reach conclusions about not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1743.839,"endTime":1746.629,"body":"literally equality, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1743.839,"endTime":1746.629,"body":"practical equivalence."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1746.69,"endTime":1750.35,"body":"And this is such great"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1746.69,"endTime":1750.35,"body":"fun to think about, because one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1750.35,"endTime":1753.68,"body":"is we're expanding the usual"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1750.35,"endTime":1753.68,"body":"null hypothesis testing in ways"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1753.68,"endTime":1757.31,"body":"that we sometimes don't think"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1753.68,"endTime":1757.31,"body":"about, or in fairness to folks"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1757.31,"endTime":1761.66,"body":"out there are not taught about,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1757.31,"endTime":1761.66,"body":"but also Greg has been very"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1761.66,"endTime":1766.67,"body":"careful in his language about"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1761.66,"endTime":1766.67,"body":"what is meaningful, and this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1766.67,"endTime":1770.78,"body":"becomes an inherently"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1766.67,"endTime":1770.78,"body":"subjective, theoretically"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1770.81,"endTime":1775.22,"body":"motivated determination. And"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1770.81,"endTime":1775.22,"body":"this gets really interesting"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1775.22,"endTime":1780.14,"body":"really fast. And it does make me"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1775.22,"endTime":1780.14,"body":"think of Dilbert. So I'm a big"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1780.14,"endTime":1784.19,"body":"Dilbert fan. And I have this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1780.14,"endTime":1784.19,"body":"cartoon on my door for a while"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1784.19,"endTime":1787.7,"body":"he goes bungee jumping, and the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1784.19,"endTime":1787.7,"body":"guy is tying them up. And the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1787.7,"endTime":1790.1,"body":"guy says, How much do you weigh"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1787.7,"endTime":1790.1,"body":"and Dilbert says, Why do you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.1,"endTime":1793.64,"body":"need to know? And he said, well,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1790.1,"endTime":1793.64,"body":"it determines how much tension I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1793.64,"endTime":1800.96,"body":"put in and Dilbert says I weigh"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1793.64,"endTime":1800.96,"body":"700 pounds but I love This topic"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1800.96,"endTime":1806.21,"body":"for these reasons, it's moving"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1800.96,"endTime":1806.21,"body":"beyond the Is it zero? Yes and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1806.21,"endTime":1810.92,"body":"no. But then it moves us into,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1806.21,"endTime":1810.92,"body":"well, how big a difference is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1810.92,"endTime":1814.94,"body":"big enough? And how are you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1810.92,"endTime":1814.94,"body":"justifying that? Because you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1814.94,"endTime":1819.65,"body":"might say a 10 point difference"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1814.94,"endTime":1819.65,"body":"is worth the $1,000 LSAT prep"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1819.65,"endTime":1824.51,"body":"course. And I might say, I want"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1819.65,"endTime":1824.51,"body":"30 point difference. Yeah. Okay."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1824.54,"endTime":1827.42,"body":"Well, both of those are equally"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1824.54,"endTime":1827.42,"body":"defensible. Yeah, exactly."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1827.42,"endTime":1830.45,"body":"One of the things I really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1827.42,"endTime":1830.45,"body":"like about this is that it puts"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1830.45,"endTime":1834.11,"body":"the onus on the researcher to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1830.45,"endTime":1834.11,"body":"define what it means for things"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1834.11,"endTime":1837.47,"body":"to be equivalent. If that seems"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1834.11,"endTime":1837.47,"body":"like too onerous a task, it's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1837.47,"endTime":1839.96,"body":"exactly what we asked you to do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1837.47,"endTime":1839.96,"body":"when you're doing a power"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1839.96,"endTime":1844.37,"body":"analysis for a study to decide,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1839.96,"endTime":1844.37,"body":"what is that minimum detectable"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1844.37,"endTime":1847.19,"body":"effect that you actually care"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1844.37,"endTime":1847.19,"body":"about, we're doing the same"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1847.19,"endTime":1849.95,"body":"thing, it's just that we're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1847.19,"endTime":1849.95,"body":"doing it for a purpose going the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1849.95,"endTime":1852.98,"body":"other way, right? Looking at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1849.95,"endTime":1852.98,"body":"being able to statistically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1852.98,"endTime":1856.64,"body":"establish something that is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1852.98,"endTime":1856.64,"body":"under that rather than over that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1856.82,"endTime":1859.16,"body":"one, although we don't have to,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1856.82,"endTime":1859.16,"body":"we can use confidence intervals"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1859.16,"endTime":1860.06,"body":"to try to get out that."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1860.089,"endTime":1862.939,"body":"And I have not always"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1860.089,"endTime":1862.939,"body":"been a big fan of confidence"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1862.939,"endTime":1867.979,"body":"intervals. And the reason is,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1862.939,"endTime":1867.979,"body":"many people treat them as if"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1868.009,"endTime":1870.949,"body":"there's something unique and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1868.009,"endTime":1870.949,"body":"novel ly different than a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1870.949,"endTime":1874.759,"body":"critical ratio. So you have a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1870.949,"endTime":1874.759,"body":"point estimate a standard error,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1874.819,"endTime":1877.909,"body":"that gives you a critical ratio,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1874.819,"endTime":1877.909,"body":"and you look it up in a table"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1877.909,"endTime":1880.729,"body":"and get a P value. And people"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1877.909,"endTime":1880.729,"body":"say no, no, no, or you're a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1880.729,"endTime":1884.599,"body":"horrible person, you are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1880.729,"endTime":1884.599,"body":"singularly responsible for"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1884.599,"endTime":1889.069,"body":"everything that's bad in the"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1884.599,"endTime":1889.069,"body":"social sciences. And instead of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1889.069,"endTime":1892.909,"body":"dividing by the standard error,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1889.069,"endTime":1892.909,"body":"we should do plus or minus two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1892.909,"endTime":1896.569,"body":"times the standard error and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1892.909,"endTime":1896.569,"body":"then see if it contains zero."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1897.169,"endTime":1901.339,"body":"And I grouse like a grumpy old"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1897.169,"endTime":1901.339,"body":"man, because of course, that is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1901.339,"endTime":1905.419,"body":"the same thing. You can look at"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1901.339,"endTime":1905.419,"body":"your P value and accept or"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1905.419,"endTime":1909.139,"body":"reject your null hypothesis with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1905.419,"endTime":1909.139,"body":"a critical ratio. Or you can"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1909.139,"endTime":1912.829,"body":"compute a confidence interval,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1909.139,"endTime":1912.829,"body":"see if it contains zero, and"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1912.829,"endTime":1916.069,"body":"then accept or reject your null"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1912.829,"endTime":1916.069,"body":"hypothesis is exactly the same"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1916.069,"endTime":1919.969,"body":"thing when used that way. Now,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1916.069,"endTime":1919.969,"body":"what I'm fascinated with and you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1919.969,"endTime":1923.719,"body":"actually need to throw me a bone"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1919.969,"endTime":1923.719,"body":"and help me with this. Because"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1923.749,"endTime":1927.229,"body":"as you've been talking, I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1923.749,"endTime":1927.229,"body":"seeing well, there actually is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1927.229,"endTime":1930.979,"body":"not one test. But there's"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1927.229,"endTime":1930.979,"body":"actually two tests. There's one"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1930.979,"endTime":1934.969,"body":"above and there's one below. Are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1930.979,"endTime":1934.969,"body":"you in the dolphin Gallagher"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1934.969,"endTime":1939.559,"body":"splash zone? Right, I'm not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1934.969,"endTime":1939.559,"body":"gonna sleep well tonight, given"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1939.559,"endTime":1944.119,"body":"this whole visualization. But"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1939.559,"endTime":1944.119,"body":"I'm starting to wonder, does our"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1944.119,"endTime":1947.779,"body":"standard confidence interval"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1944.119,"endTime":1947.779,"body":"kinda tell us about both of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1947.779,"endTime":1950.719,"body":"those at the same time? Or am I"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":1947.779,"endTime":1950.719,"body":"thinking about that wrong?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1950.75,"endTime":1953.63,"body":"No, I like how you're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1950.75,"endTime":1953.63,"body":"thinking about it. When I talked"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1953.63,"endTime":1956.84,"body":"about the confidence interval, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1953.63,"endTime":1956.84,"body":"was really just using it as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1956.84,"endTime":1960.74,"body":"shortcut way to try to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1956.84,"endTime":1960.74,"body":"accomplish two hypothesis tests"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1960.77,"endTime":1965.0,"body":"at once. And even though"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1960.77,"endTime":1965.0,"body":"honestly, I talked about it in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1965.0,"endTime":1969.32,"body":"my example, as informing us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1965.0,"endTime":1969.32,"body":"about zero, right informing us"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1969.32,"endTime":1972.74,"body":"about that traditional null"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1969.32,"endTime":1972.74,"body":"hypothesis significance test,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1972.86,"endTime":1975.83,"body":"the two tests that I'm actually"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1972.86,"endTime":1975.83,"body":"referring to are the one above"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1975.83,"endTime":1979.73,"body":"zero and the one below zero. In"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1975.83,"endTime":1979.73,"body":"the LSAT example, we could"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1979.73,"endTime":1982.58,"body":"imagine a positive 10 point"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1979.73,"endTime":1982.58,"body":"difference, or a negative 10"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1982.58,"endTime":1985.16,"body":"point difference. And really,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1982.58,"endTime":1985.16,"body":"the competence intervals purpose"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1985.16,"endTime":1988.88,"body":"in the context of equivalence"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1985.16,"endTime":1988.88,"body":"testing, is to conduct a one"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1988.88,"endTime":1993.02,"body":"sided significance test of the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1988.88,"endTime":1993.02,"body":"positive 10 points in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1993.02,"endTime":1997.22,"body":"direction towards zero, and a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1993.02,"endTime":1997.22,"body":"one sided test of the negative"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1997.22,"endTime":2000.79,"body":"10 points in the direction of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":1997.22,"endTime":2000.79,"body":"zero. So the confidence"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2000.79,"endTime":2004.27,"body":"interval, whereas we're used to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2000.79,"endTime":2004.27,"body":"it serving some purpose, that is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2004.27,"endTime":2007.3,"body":"not really different from a null"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2004.27,"endTime":2007.3,"body":"hypothesis test, here, it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2007.3,"endTime":2011.83,"body":"actually stands to accomplish"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2007.3,"endTime":2011.83,"body":"both tests of the boundaries of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2011.83,"endTime":2015.4,"body":"what we would call practical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2011.83,"endTime":2015.4,"body":"equivalence. So in that sense, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2015.4,"endTime":2018.46,"body":"think it's actually really"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2015.4,"endTime":2018.46,"body":"useful as this proxy for those"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2018.46,"endTime":2022.12,"body":"two hypothesis tests. The trick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2018.46,"endTime":2022.12,"body":"is that the P value that we're"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2022.12,"endTime":2027.16,"body":"accustomed to is the p value"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2022.12,"endTime":2027.16,"body":"associated with that typical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2027.16,"endTime":2030.91,"body":"test of the null hypothesis of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2027.16,"endTime":2030.91,"body":"zero. In this particular"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2030.91,"endTime":2034.75,"body":"example, we could imagine two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2030.91,"endTime":2034.75,"body":"other P values, we could imagine"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2034.78,"endTime":2038.38,"body":"a p value associated with the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2034.78,"endTime":2038.38,"body":"test of the upper boundary aimed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2038.38,"endTime":2041.8,"body":"in toward zero, or we could"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2038.38,"endTime":2041.8,"body":"imagine a p value of the test of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2041.8,"endTime":2045.25,"body":"that lower boundary of practical"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2041.8,"endTime":2045.25,"body":"equivalence, aimed upward"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2045.28,"endTime":2048.67,"body":"towards zero as well, I think in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2045.28,"endTime":2048.67,"body":"the sense of the confidence"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2048.67,"endTime":2051.31,"body":"interval offering us something"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2048.67,"endTime":2051.31,"body":"different from null hypothesis"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2051.31,"endTime":2055.03,"body":"significance testing, not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2051.31,"endTime":2055.03,"body":"really, but as a vehicle for"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2055.03,"endTime":2057.85,"body":"helping us to conduct"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2055.03,"endTime":2057.85,"body":"equivalence tests to conduct"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2057.85,"endTime":2060.82,"body":"multiple hypothesis tests"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2057.85,"endTime":2060.82,"body":"simultaneously. I think it"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2060.82,"endTime":2063.1,"body":"actually is insightful. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2060.82,"endTime":2063.1,"body":"that's how I was trying to use"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2063.1,"endTime":2064.48,"body":"it here. I don't know if that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2063.1,"endTime":2064.48,"body":"makes sense."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2064.51,"endTime":2067.06,"body":"That makes a lot of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2064.51,"endTime":2067.06,"body":"sense. Thank you for that. Yeah."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2067.12,"endTime":2070.12,"body":"Where do we go from here? How do"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2067.12,"endTime":2070.12,"body":"we incorporate this into our own"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2070.12,"endTime":2070.54,"body":"work?"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2070.57,"endTime":2073.18,"body":"Well, first of all, you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2070.57,"endTime":2073.18,"body":"don't just incorporate it unless"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2073.18,"endTime":2076.18,"body":"you have a research question or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2073.18,"endTime":2076.18,"body":"some other type of question that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2076.18,"endTime":2078.13,"body":"is specifically about"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2076.18,"endTime":2078.13,"body":"equivalence. So it might be the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2078.13,"endTime":2082.84,"body":"case that you want to test some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2078.13,"endTime":2082.84,"body":"assumptions prior to doing some"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2082.84,"endTime":2086.74,"body":"other method, whether that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2082.84,"endTime":2086.74,"body":"assumption is normality, or the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2086.74,"endTime":2089.26,"body":"assumption is homogeneity of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2086.74,"endTime":2089.26,"body":"variance or homogeneity of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2089.26,"endTime":2093.37,"body":"dispersion, like we test with"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2089.26,"endTime":2093.37,"body":"boxes M test, rather than just"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2093.37,"endTime":2096.67,"body":"saying, Well, I didn't get a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2093.37,"endTime":2096.67,"body":"significant departure from that."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2096.67,"endTime":2099.97,"body":"So I guess that assumption holds"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2096.67,"endTime":2099.97,"body":"with regard to testing Assam"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2100.0,"endTime":2103.36,"body":"Questions, what we can and maybe"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2100.0,"endTime":2103.36,"body":"should do is figure out what the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2103.36,"endTime":2108.28,"body":"boundaries are have normal"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2103.36,"endTime":2108.28,"body":"enough or homogeneous enough,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2108.52,"endTime":2112.24,"body":"and then conduct our test in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2108.52,"endTime":2112.24,"body":"this flipped way to see whether"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2112.24,"endTime":2114.85,"body":"or not we have violated that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2112.24,"endTime":2114.85,"body":"assumption. Of course, that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2114.85,"endTime":2118.93,"body":"requires work on the front end"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2114.85,"endTime":2118.93,"body":"to decide what departures are"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2118.93,"endTime":2121.54,"body":"troublesome, whether it's from"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2118.93,"endTime":2121.54,"body":"normality, or homogeneity of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2121.54,"endTime":2125.38,"body":"variance. But that's our job. So"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2121.54,"endTime":2125.38,"body":"that's when the tests have to do"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2125.38,"endTime":2128.2,"body":"with testing the assumptions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2125.38,"endTime":2128.2,"body":"that are associated with other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2128.2,"endTime":2131.65,"body":"things. But like I said, at the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2128.2,"endTime":2131.65,"body":"beginning, their actual research"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2131.65,"endTime":2136.48,"body":"questions about equivalence? Is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2131.65,"endTime":2136.48,"body":"this drug good enough? Is this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2136.48,"endTime":2141.19,"body":"teaching method good enough, is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2136.48,"endTime":2141.19,"body":"group therapy as effective or at"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2141.19,"endTime":2145.06,"body":"least close enough to as"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2141.19,"endTime":2145.06,"body":"effective as individual therapy,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2145.09,"endTime":2147.46,"body":"boy would want to know that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2145.09,"endTime":2147.46,"body":"because group therapy could be a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2147.46,"endTime":2150.61,"body":"heck of a lot cheaper? So there"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2147.46,"endTime":2150.61,"body":"are a lot of research questions"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2150.61,"endTime":2153.73,"body":"that are about equivalence. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2150.61,"endTime":2153.73,"body":"then it just comes down to the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2153.73,"endTime":2156.88,"body":"researcher defining in the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2153.73,"endTime":2156.88,"body":"context of whatever the field"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2156.88,"endTime":2161.44,"body":"is, what stands for equivalence,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2156.88,"endTime":2161.44,"body":"but you and I know how to embed"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2161.44,"endTime":2165.07,"body":"this in the context of darn near"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2161.44,"endTime":2165.07,"body":"anything, right? We could talk"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2165.07,"endTime":2170.08,"body":"about whether this structural"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2165.07,"endTime":2170.08,"body":"path is zero, or at least close"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2170.08,"endTime":2172.96,"body":"enough, not saying oh, it's not"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2170.08,"endTime":2172.96,"body":"significant, I guess it's zero."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2172.96,"endTime":2177.25,"body":"But is it practically zero? Or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2172.96,"endTime":2177.25,"body":"you and I within a structural"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2177.25,"endTime":2179.83,"body":"model could say is this"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2177.25,"endTime":2179.83,"body":"variables value and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2179.83,"endTime":2182.62,"body":"understanding why practically"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2179.83,"endTime":2182.62,"body":"equivalent to this other"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2182.62,"endTime":2184.9,"body":"predictors value and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2182.62,"endTime":2184.9,"body":"understanding why that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2184.9,"endTime":2187.63,"body":"something you and I know how to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2184.9,"endTime":2187.63,"body":"do, because we can encode the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2187.63,"endTime":2190.87,"body":"difference between those two"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2187.63,"endTime":2190.87,"body":"things. Within a structural"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2190.87,"endTime":2193.87,"body":"model. We talked about doing"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2190.87,"endTime":2193.87,"body":"this in our Lego episode, just a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.87,"endTime":2197.68,"body":"few episodes ago, you can code"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2193.87,"endTime":2197.68,"body":"darn near anything you want as a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2197.68,"endTime":2202.15,"body":"parameter. And then once you"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2197.68,"endTime":2202.15,"body":"have done that, you are able to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2202.15,"endTime":2205.81,"body":"talk about it in terms of"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2202.15,"endTime":2205.81,"body":"equivalence, we could do it in"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2205.81,"endTime":2209.8,"body":"terms of invariance testing,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2205.81,"endTime":2209.8,"body":"even if we don't believe that a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2209.8,"endTime":2214.0,"body":"set of loadings are exactly the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2209.8,"endTime":2214.0,"body":"same across two populations, is"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2214.0,"endTime":2216.97,"body":"there a way that we could"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2214.0,"endTime":2216.97,"body":"quantify close enough and there"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2216.97,"endTime":2220.12,"body":"are ways that we can quantify"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2216.97,"endTime":2220.12,"body":"close enough, we could quantify"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2220.12,"endTime":2223.66,"body":"it in terms of these loadings"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2220.12,"endTime":2223.66,"body":"are no more than plus or minus"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2223.66,"endTime":2226.96,"body":"10% of those loadings, that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2223.66,"endTime":2226.96,"body":"something we actually could do."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2227.29,"endTime":2231.4,"body":"These are things where we can re"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2227.29,"endTime":2231.4,"body":"engineer our hypothesis tests to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2231.4,"endTime":2235.51,"body":"be able to say, All right, I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2231.4,"endTime":2235.51,"body":"want to see whether or not I can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2235.51,"endTime":2238.78,"body":"statistically fall within that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2235.51,"endTime":2238.78,"body":"close enough zone, that"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2238.78,"endTime":2242.38,"body":"practically equivalent zone. And"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2238.78,"endTime":2242.38,"body":"so it has widespread"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2242.38,"endTime":2246.31,"body":"applications. And then we can"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2242.38,"endTime":2246.31,"body":"power for those tests, just like"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2246.31,"endTime":2249.67,"body":"we power for other things. So I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2246.31,"endTime":2249.67,"body":"think this is a nice complement"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2249.7,"endTime":2252.58,"body":"to the types of tests that we"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2249.7,"endTime":2252.58,"body":"already do very commonly."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2252.64,"endTime":2256.03,"body":"And we'll put up show"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2252.64,"endTime":2256.03,"body":"notes on this for some of these"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2256.03,"endTime":2261.16,"body":"readings. James Rogers, Kenneth"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2256.03,"endTime":2261.16,"body":"Howard, John Vesey, using"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2261.16,"endTime":2263.86,"body":"significance tests to evaluate"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2261.16,"endTime":2263.86,"body":"equivalence between two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2263.86,"endTime":2270.67,"body":"experimental groups in 93. So"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2263.86,"endTime":2270.67,"body":"this is 30 years old at this"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2270.67,"endTime":2276.19,"body":"point. And I found this to be a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2270.67,"endTime":2276.19,"body":"really nice overview of a lot of"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2276.19,"endTime":2279.22,"body":"the things that you've helped"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2276.19,"endTime":2279.22,"body":"walk us through of what do we"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2279.22,"endTime":2283.24,"body":"mean by exact what if it's not"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2279.22,"endTime":2283.24,"body":"exact, what is big enough to be"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2283.24,"endTime":2288.19,"body":"big, and I would recommend"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2283.24,"endTime":2288.19,"body":"looking at that, but really is"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2288.19,"endTime":2291.76,"body":"just thinking about things a"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2288.19,"endTime":2291.76,"body":"little bit differently. I'm"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2291.76,"endTime":2295.78,"body":"looking at the paper, and they"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2291.76,"endTime":2295.78,"body":"have a wonderful figure in here,"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2296.08,"endTime":2299.41,"body":"that corresponds to what you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2296.08,"endTime":2299.41,"body":"were describing about how you"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2299.41,"endTime":2303.1,"body":"could have a one tailed test on"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2299.41,"endTime":2303.1,"body":"the lower part. And you can have"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2303.1,"endTime":2306.16,"body":"a one tailed test on the upper"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2303.1,"endTime":2306.16,"body":"part. And he shows two"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2306.16,"endTime":2309.85,"body":"distributions, and then combines"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2306.16,"endTime":2309.85,"body":"them into the single"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2309.85,"endTime":2313.15,"body":"distribution. This is really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2309.85,"endTime":2313.15,"body":"cool stuff."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2313.21,"endTime":2315.7,"body":"I totally agree. So that's"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2313.21,"endTime":2315.7,"body":"equivalence tests. In a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2315.7,"endTime":2319.24,"body":"nutshell, just taking your good"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2315.7,"endTime":2319.24,"body":"old hypothesis testing skills"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2319.24,"endTime":2322.06,"body":"and turning them in Word on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2319.24,"endTime":2322.06,"body":"questions of equivalents. It"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2322.06,"endTime":2325.18,"body":"doesn't use any new skills, but"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2322.06,"endTime":2325.18,"body":"it helps you to look at things a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2325.18,"endTime":2328.42,"body":"little bit differently, and plan"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2325.18,"endTime":2328.42,"body":"to be able to answer those kinds"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2328.42,"endTime":2330.58,"body":"of questions. So it's very, very"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2328.42,"endTime":2330.58,"body":"cool stuff."},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2330.64,"endTime":2335.56,"body":"And I think it's really"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2330.64,"endTime":2335.56,"body":"fun to juxtapose equality with"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2335.56,"endTime":2339.91,"body":"equivalence, because those are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2335.56,"endTime":2339.91,"body":"not the same. And in the spirit"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2339.94,"endTime":2344.47,"body":"of my middle school English"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2339.94,"endTime":2344.47,"body":"teacher, mom a couple of times"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2344.5,"endTime":2350.77,"body":"during this episode, I have said"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2344.5,"endTime":2350.77,"body":"precisely equal that is sloppy"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2350.77,"endTime":2356.92,"body":"thinking. It is precisely equal"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2350.77,"endTime":2356.92,"body":"is in memory of mom. They are"},{"speaker":"Patrick","startTime":2356.95,"endTime":2359.02,"body":"equal. Thanks, everybody."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2359.14,"endTime":2361.66,"body":"Thanks, Mrs. C. Take care,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2359.14,"endTime":2361.66,"body":"everybody. Take care. Bye bye."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2366.13,"endTime":2368.26,"body":"Thanks so much for joining us."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2366.13,"endTime":2368.26,"body":"Don't forget to tell your"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2368.26,"endTime":2371.77,"body":"friends to subscribe to us on"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2368.26,"endTime":2371.77,"body":"Apple podcasts, Spotify, or"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2371.77,"endTime":2375.91,"body":"wherever they go for 100%"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2371.77,"endTime":2375.91,"body":"Dolphin friendly content. You"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2375.91,"endTime":2378.76,"body":"can also follow us on Twitter"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2375.91,"endTime":2378.76,"body":"where we are at quantity pod and"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2378.76,"endTime":2381.37,"body":"visit our website quantity"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2378.76,"endTime":2381.37,"body":"pod.org where you can leave us a"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2381.37,"endTime":2384.28,"body":"message find organized playlists"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2381.37,"endTime":2384.28,"body":"and show notes. Listen to past"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2384.28,"endTime":2386.83,"body":"episodes and other fun stuff."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2384.28,"endTime":2386.83,"body":"And finally, you can get cool"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2386.83,"endTime":2389.53,"body":"quantity merch like shirts,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2386.83,"endTime":2389.53,"body":"mugs, stickers and spiral"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2389.53,"endTime":2392.56,"body":"notebooks from Red bubble.com."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2389.53,"endTime":2392.56,"body":"We're all proceeds from non"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2392.56,"endTime":2395.62,"body":"bootleg authorized merch go to"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2392.56,"endTime":2395.62,"body":"donorschoose.org to help support"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2395.62,"endTime":2398.38,"body":"low income schools. You've been"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2395.62,"endTime":2398.38,"body":"listening to quantitative the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2398.38,"endTime":2402.28,"body":"podcast where equivalent isn't"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2398.38,"endTime":2402.28,"body":"equal and equal is only equal if"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2402.28,"endTime":2403.36,"body":"it's precisely equal."},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2408.55,"endTime":2412.24,"body":"To close today's episode, rather"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2408.55,"endTime":2412.24,"body":"than having our usual sponsors,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2412.3,"endTime":2416.08,"body":"I would like to offer a limerick"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2412.3,"endTime":2416.08,"body":"in honor of Mrs. Curran. There"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2416.08,"endTime":2419.8,"body":"once was a mother named Dolores"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2416.08,"endTime":2419.8,"body":"of whose praises We could surely"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2419.8,"endTime":2423.28,"body":"sing a chorus and even without"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2419.8,"endTime":2423.28,"body":"meeting face to face, she has"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2423.28,"endTime":2426.79,"body":"left us all in a better place,"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2423.28,"endTime":2426.79,"body":"giving us Patrick, who will"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2426.79,"endTime":2430.45,"body":"continue to bore us, Mrs. C. I'm"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2426.79,"endTime":2430.45,"body":"sure this Limerick would have"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2430.45,"endTime":2434.44,"body":"been better if you'd been the"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2430.45,"endTime":2434.44,"body":"one to edit it. Cheers. And as I"},{"speaker":"Greg","startTime":2434.44,"endTime":2436.15,"body":"say in Gaelic slung chair"}]}