The Future of Freelance Work: Visa Reforms and Global Hiring with Pavel Shynkarenko, Mellow

Policy headwinds are rising, but the work still needs doing. In this episode of the HRchat Podcast, host Bill Banham sits down with Pavel Shynkarenko, founder of Mellow, to unpack the ripple effects of proposed H-1B and L-1 visa reforms—and a possible 25% outsourcing levy—on the global freelance and contractor economy.

Pavel has spent more than 20 years in financial and HR technology, building platforms that help freelancers access fair pay, benefits, and social protections on par with employees. He brings a pragmatic, data-informed view of how these policy changes could reshape the cost calculus for U.S. employers, HR leaders, and cross-border teams in 2025 and beyond.

Together, Bill and Pavel explore how tightening U.S. visa policies could unintentionally accelerate the shift toward remote-first and distributed workforces. When companies face rising administrative costs or talent shortages at home, they often turn to Employer of Record (EOR) and Contractor of Record (COR) models to stay compliant while continuing to access top talent worldwide. Pavel walks through the hidden math behind total landed cost—how everything from currency fluctuations to social contributions can alter hiring decisions—and why the real bottleneck isn’t policy, but supply: there simply aren’t enough local workers to replace the global freelance engine that powers innovation.

The conversation then turns to platform evolution. Legacy marketplaces once promised cheaper rates through mass competition, but that model no longer serves enterprise needs. Today, trust, verified track records, and long-term fit matter far more. Pavel explains how Mellow is redefining the space by using AI and behavioral data to connect companies with freelancers they’re statistically more likely to succeed with—based on shared networks, past project outcomes, and verified credentials. This AI-first approach also simplifies complex backend tasks such as KYC, tax, and payments across 100+ countries, giving HR teams one compliance-ready platform to manage their distributed workforce.

Bill and Pavel also compare U.S. protectionist trends with Europe’s fragmented response. Some countries, especially those with aging populations and shrinking workforces, may loosen immigration for high-skill talent, while others tighten entry. The result? A global balancing act where companies must blend onshore, nearshore, and offshore strategies

Chapters

• 0:00 Setting The Stage: Freelance Economy
• 0:40 Guest Intro: Pavel And Mello
• 2:55 Why Visa Reform Is On The Table
• 5:05 Fees, Outsourcing, And Cost Pass-Throughs
• 6:59 Clarifying H1B Costs Vs Outsourcing Levies
• 9:24 EOR Demand Spike And Labor Gaps
• 11:02 Will Europe Follow Protectionism
• 13:18 Platforms’ Role In Reducing Complexity
• 16:20 From Cheap To Fit: Marketplace Shift
• 18:10 AI-Powered Personalization At Mello
• 20:55 Where To Connect With Pavel

Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:02

Welcome to the HR Chat Show, one of the world's most downloaded and shared podcasts designed for HR pros, talent execs, tech enthusiasts, and business leaders. For hundreds more episodes and what's new in the world of work. Subscribe to the show, follow us on social media, and visit hrgazette.com.

SPEAKER_02: 0:26

Welcome to another episode of the HR Chat Show. Hello, listeners. This is your host today, Bill Bannham. And in this episode, we're going to dive into the fast-changing world of the freelance economy and distributed workforces. Joining me today is Pavel Shinkarinenko, founder of Mello, a pioneering HR platform that provides freelancers with tax and social security support, similar to what employees receive. With more than 20 years in finance and HR technologies and deep expertise in the gig economy and contractor relationship automation, Pavel is here to share insights on the recent upwork acquisition by Bubti and what it signals for the future of flexible workforce management. Tune in as we discuss the H1B and L1 Visa Reform Act and how, if enacted, it will crack down on companies that import large numbers of H1B and L1 workers to displace American workers and outsource American jobs. Listen to to understand how it would provide the Department of Labour with new authorities and responsibilities to ensure that program requirements are enforced. I hope you enjoy this conversation that I had with Pavel. Pavel, it's my pleasure to welcome you to the HR chat show today. How are you doing?

SPEAKER_03: 1:50

Oh, nice to meet you, Bill. It's really a pleasure. I'm really glad about your invitation. And I hope we will have a very useful conversation today.

SPEAKER_02: 2:04

Me too. So before we get into the hard-hitting questions, Pavel, why why don't we start by uh beyond my weintroduction just a moment ago, why don't you take a minute or two to introduce yourself and also tell our listeners a bit about Mello?

SPEAKER_03: 2:19

Uh my name is Pavel Shinkarenka. I'm a CEO and the founder of the mellow.io. Uh that's the platform that helps companies to manage their uh freelance forces uh across the globe in more than 100 countries, and also we have the uh products for the freelancers, and we have help them to be getting paid in time and uh collaborate with the corporate users worldwide. So we act as intermediary for the both sides of freelancers and the companies across the globe.

SPEAKER_02: 2:55

Let's start with some context. Uh, today, as I mentioned in the intro, we're talking about the potential changes to the H1B and the L1 um visas. Um there's talk at the moment about a reform act which is going to have fairly significant impact. Um, so in your opinion, why is the H1B and the L1 Visa Reform Act potentially being introduced? And how could it affect American companies and foreigners looking to work in the US?

SPEAKER_03: 3:26

Um I I will start um with my own opinion. I'm not pretend to be 100% true, uh, but um on from my perspective, that's really logical. Um in the current uh government position, and uh that protectionism we already see in many many places uh in many many decisions uh uh already been done by the uh Trump and uh current uh government, and that sounds logically. Uh I think that will that will be not so strictly protectionism for the people who are already in US, and I think that doesn't help them to uh receive the new job or some kind of uh positive uh in their in their income, but um I think um US-based corporate uh cor uh corporate uh corporates start to uh use a lot of uh remote workers and the UR platforms instead of uh bringing the new um new people inside the US. Um so we will see the the cooling down of the migration processes, the legal migration processes, not illegal ones. Uh and on the other hand, we will see increasing of outsourcing, but at the same time, uh we know in in the um parliament you have another act um that tries to set up the additional fees for the outsourcing perspective, so that makes that uh things more and more complicated for the US-based companies. And finally, I expect um that just US-based taxpayers have to pay for all these uh purposes and perspectives. Uh because finally, all that US-based companies produce goods and services for the US market. And if you uh try to um put additional charges, fees, or something like that on their shoulders, they will follow the charges into the um people or companies who buy their goods and services inside the US. So that will be the final uh destination point of all the changes.

SPEAKER_01: 6:42

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SPEAKER_02: 6:58

Okay, thank you. So my understanding is uh that the changes will impact certain roles, particularly uh tech roles, and it means potentially$100,000 per uh application. So for each individual. You mentioned you mentioned just a moment ago there will probably be a differ additional fees as well on the outsourcing side. What are those additional fees beyond the hundred thousand look like? Can you break that down for us?

SPEAKER_03: 7:25

Uh no, no, no. That's that's not connected to H1B visas at all. That's totally different act, but uh on the same time, um it is announced but decline in nowadays. Uh, I think it has some kind of changes to be approved in the nearest future, uh, but we will see and take a look. Uh H1B visas um requires the significant uh fees when you uh when you as a US-based company try to bring the new um new workers inside the US. Uh and that means you will try as a company to avoid this perspective. So we will uh our clients or US-based companies uh will continue to work remotely with those kind of people. Do not bring that them in the US. And that one um one thing that will follow that that new rule. On the other hand, uh the government start to um think about how to um set up the new fees for those companies who do not hire the local ones, the local US workers, but they try to outsource outside of US this kind of works and services and establish the additional fee of 25%. Uh and that means, okay, my goods and services becomes more and more expensive. That I'm talking about.

SPEAKER_02: 9:21

Okay, thank you. Let's let's delve into that a bit more. Um, so how might these changes affect the the uh EOR, the the employer record market in the US and globally? What will there be, in your opinion, would you feel that there will be more or fewer vendors as a result?

SPEAKER_03: 9:37

I think in short term, in short term, uh the demand in EOR and contractor of records will be increased in uh in a couple of months. After that uh um that rule be uh uh became into the force. Uh but after uh I think it it could affect uh and slow down the growth because a lot of companies who could hire people inside internally inside the US will try to do that, but uh inside the US you have not enough um just the freelance forces or labor forces. Um when we start to calculate how many people work remotely for US-based companies, the number is nearby 300 million people from India, Pakistan, uh, African region, and many many countries. They do a lot of small tasks, they are freelancers, remotes, and we do not have so many people in the US. So they cannot be replaced by the US-based workforces.

SPEAKER_02: 11:02

Following these potential changes in the US, do you foresee that uh other regions could follow a more protectionist approach as well, such as Europe?

SPEAKER_03: 11:12

Oh um the Europe is not so united as you can see from outside. I think we will see the different perspective um country by country, and we have the totally different situation in the government and politics. It depends on the economic situation inside each country. But I think a couple of countries inside the European Union uh will use this um uh perspective to uh legalize more and more uh high-skilled migrants inside because they try to understand uh how many perspectives uh in nearest future they will achieve when they allow the high-skilled people to live in in their countries. Uh, we will talk about the Cyprus firstly. Uh we live in Cyprus and we know more about the local politics and perspectives. Uh Cyprus is welcomed for high-skilled migrants, and they even make their um rules and migration procedures softer and softer for those kind of people, especially. So maybe some other countries in European Union also will use that uh opportunity uh to bring more high-qualified people inside and be more um receive uh more advantages in that.

SPEAKER_02: 13:12

Okay, so lots of factors here, politics being one, culture being another, population pyramids being another, of course. So the US is an example of of a of a population pyramid where you've got lots of younger people towards the bottom. Um, and I guess the the philosophy from the Trump administration is offering more opportunities to those people within the US, those younger people within the US, compared to say Italy in in the EU, where that population pyramid is is um the other way around, isn't it? You've got uh lots of older people at the top and lots of lots of younger people at the bottom.

SPEAKER_03: 13:45

So yeah, it really depends on the demographic situation, of course.

SPEAKER_02: 13:51

Okay. Um now I want to ask you, many many companies are struggling with the complexity of vendor management when working with a fragmented gig economy. What what role uh do platforms like Butley or Mellow play in reducing that kind of complexity?

SPEAKER_03: 14:10

Um that's um a really um supportive role. We j we do not make some kind of global changes in that uh industry or in that field. Um we just make uh the administration and management of the remotes and especially cross-boarding uh relationships with the freelancers and project-based workers more easier and more cost-efficient. Um, and that's why companies start to use um freelancers and part-timers and remotes more and more. But I think the the significant driver of this story was a COVID, not platform like ours or um other ones. Um just one time when we woke up, we recognize okay, now we are stuck at home and we have to um manage with this situation, and we receive all that skills of remote management. And when companies across the globe uh receive the new um achievement and uh remote first infrastructure, they start to use freelancers, remote, project-based workers more and more. And that trend continues after the COVID time, because when people who work remotely recognize all the benefits of this situation, uh do not wasting time on the trip from the home to the work and back, um, reduce some kind of costs, increase their income, um the real income. Uh they start to move to different cities, to different regions uh to spend less and earn the same money. So they increase their real income and they really love it. So I think that trend will be the same following years, and companies already have remote first infrastructure and platform like ours, help them to manage and administrate their finance forces across the globe. And we made this administration easier and cheaper for the companies. That's our role, just support it.

SPEAKER_02: 16:57

And it gives all of these companies a much bigger talent pool as well, of course, which is um I'm a big proponent of that. Um, okay. So looking ahead, what what risks or challenges do you see for for platforms like Upwork as they attempt to scale into mega product territory while while still meeting unique client needs?

SPEAKER_03: 17:19

Um I think the um the next trend um means um more and more personalized solutions. And platforms like an upwork, they are so generic. And I think that period of time will be so challenging for them. Um I'm not I'm not sure. Um I I I can see and imagine the way of transformation of that huge businesses like freelance marketplaces uh into something else with personalizations inside, but maybe that's possible. That's it depends on on uh on uh their approach. Um but that will be the challenge for them, of course. Uh because they start to uh they they always um sell the opportunity of uh receiving a lot of uh um cheaper freelancers and increase the competition inside the platform and dramatically reduce the price of the services of freelance services for the customers. Uh but I think now that's that's not a good idea. The better idea is matching not the cheapest one, but the most suitable freelancers for the service request and for the person who hiring freelancers. That's the most important thing, not not the cheapest option.

SPEAKER_02: 19:14

As the founder of Melo, what what's next for you and your team as as distributed work continues to grow?

SPEAKER_03: 19:21

From our perspective, personalization is the key. We're using AI and uh AI-based tools to help freelancers to receive the new projects with our project rather. Um, and we also have company uh help companies and their managers with our new AI tool um to find the right person for their service request uh from their network, from the network of their network. So that's a totally personalized tool that allows you as a manager to uh reach the right talent. So we discover a lot of millions of deals and recognize that the most successful deal with the freelancers um if the deal with a free with you as a manager, um corporate manager on one hand, and the freelancers, um, the deal with the person who you already um with that guy you already work with before and were successful, or your colleagues worked before and were successful. So the repeatable deal is more and more successful, uh, and that the best suitable freelancer for you. So we help managers to find the freelancers inside their networks or next to them.

SPEAKER_02: 20:57

Excellent. And just finally for today, Pavel, how can folks connect with you? So is that LinkedIn? Do you want to share your email address? Are you all over Instagram and places? And of course, how can they learn more about LinkedIn?

SPEAKER_03: 21:09

LinkedIn is yeah, LinkedIn is easy way. Uh, or mellow.io and contact page. You can write me on email or connect me with me with uh via LinkedIn.

SPEAKER_02: 21:24

Perfect. Well, that just leaves me to say for today, Pavel. Thank you very much for being my guest. Thank you. And listeners, as always, until next time, happy working.

SPEAKER_00: 21:36

Thanks for listening to the HR Chat Show. If you enjoyed this episode, why not subscribe and listen to some of the hundreds of episodes published by HR Gazette? And remember, for what's new in the world of work, subscribe to the show, follow us on social media, and visit hrgazette.com.