The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 238: Room for Activities
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In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the evidence that points to a continuation of the current bull market, like the new all time high for the S&P 500, year-to-date sector top performers, like Financials and European Financials, credit spreads, and the weakening of the U.S. Dollar.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, January 24th, currently sitting at 61. 21. I'm David Zahn. I'm here with a guy with plenty of room for activities, Ian McMillan. 211 days left until college football.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Feels so long.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306I know.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Late August.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah, it's One of those periods of time where I suppose we can look forward to, we've got NFC, AFC championship games, which I know are and dear to the Macmillan household,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah, it'll be a big one. Then we got baseball.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306then we got baseball, we got hoops and hockey. There's a draft in there and I'm sure golf starts ramping up. So there'll be things, there'll be things,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304That'll be things to get us through.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306yeah, they're just coping mechanisms. I think,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Hey, as long as stocks stay up, that's that also helps. Through the doldrums of non football season.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306It's nice to enjoy uptrends,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304And wouldn't you know it, speaking of uptrends, because we know new highs typically bring more new highs, We got another all time high this week for the S& P 500.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306first one in 2025. Yes.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304All that teeth gnashing since mid December, early December and there were some tough charts out there. We definitely filled some election gaps on things as we talked last week. But we have, hey, bounced right back.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right. And last year, 2024, we had 57 new all time highs
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Wow.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306for the S& P. The year prior, obviously, we did not. the year before that, so we had two years with new all time highs. And it's really this simple. You don't see new all time highs and downtrends. Therefore,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304It's mathematically impossible.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right, the inverse is true. You see all time highs and uptrends. And one day there will be an all time high, that's the last all time high for a while,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Very well.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306there will, but this all time high is being recorded on the back of some pretty weak breath for December
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah,
david_1_01-24-2025_104306and
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304that was definitely one of the big kind of checkboxes for, you know, why this market was going to continue further down.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Bad breath. And was it just a washout? I don't know. I know we did this without Apple. We did this without Microsoft. I mean, Microsoft hasn't had a new high since July.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306yeah, I, I think it's worth highlighting that things can be true at once. And here's where I'm going with this. You can have, if you were to think about, so prior, prior major bear markets. And what I mean by that is your 2008, your 2001, your 1970s, where you have these to 60 percent drawdowns in the market, typically those start with your market cap, highly weighted leaders. So for example, 08, 09 financials were a major waiting that failed and started to break down and got distributed, but it took a while to distribute. And my point in this is if Apple is that red flag, you would expect the distribution of Apple to take quite some time. So you could have institutions unloading Apple during the last two years, and maybe going into year three or four while the market rises, and could have both an uptrend. And the hallmarks of the next major bear market starting to develop at the same time
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304I can see that. For sure.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306And that's a hard I mean apple is a red flag. I mean,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304It is.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306yeah
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304It's an important stock. It has not participated whatsoever in any of this. I mean, it's been straight down since Christmas.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Lowest relative levels since last, last June. So like, we're at almost 7, 8 month relative lows for Apple. And yet, indices like the S& P, NASDAQ, not to new highs yet, but close.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah, and so you can have other areas of the market You know you have you have a situation on your hands where if I could paint the picture you have Higher highs, higher lows across many things. You have rising 200 days during December. You had so many stocks check back to their 50 day moving average to the point where at one point, no sector was above their 50 day moving average, which is now completely changed. Was that just a breath reset like we highlighted last week that drove skepticism again, right? Because you saw hedge fund managers completely deleverage. You saw record inflows into money markets. And now here we go with a, with a breath reset, reset and a chance to move higher. And this is also coming with the characteristic that the past two years, we've had limited leadership, the percentage of stocks that are outperforming that's a P 500 be extremely low comparatively to years prior. You know, an example of this would be, you know, I know Lance Roberts highlighted a us or bank of America chart. That 29 percent of companies in the S& P outperformed the S& P last year. And that was the same the year prior where in previous years, you know, we were North of 35, sometimes as high as 60 percent of S& P 500 stocks outperforming. So it does make you wonder if you have an environment where you have a breath reset, you had skepticism, reenter the system, the market, do you actually see more. Percentage of companies outperforming in 2025 time will tell, but the fact that only just under a third of companies in the S and P actually outperform the index is telling,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah,
david_1_01-24-2025_104306so here we sit. We've, yes, we've got the red flag of something like a, an all star stock, like Apple doing But at the same time, if Apple turns the corner here, that's sitting in the back pocket of the market for it to do well,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304and I would say most of the, I know we said Microsoft also not, I mean, it's not a leader, but other magnificent, like Google, Amazon, other Mac 7s, Meta, Netflix, I think had a big week this week with its earnings report and the rest of those are doing pretty well.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right?
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304So, year to date then, what are, what's it looking like under the, cause S& P is. I mean, we're positive year to date. It's been a good January so far.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah, I mean, you're, you're sector leaders for January. Your sector leaders are industrials, energy, materials, financials. That's not risk off and your worst performing sector is consumer staples.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah, I mean, I think, right, you got, you gotta take that. You're underperformer. Yeah, we're a month in, a little less than a month. Staples are your worst sector. I'll take that.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah, for sure. And you're seeing other risk on metrics, triple C credit spreads continue to fall
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Good.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306versus intermediate bonds continue to rise. Mean, you've highlighted in the past. I mean, it is. important to note when they're buying the worst credit rather than intermediate treasuries. And there's two
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304not worried, they're not worried about the credit. They're probably not worried about the stock.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304The underlying stock. Yeah, JNK IEF. Just continues to march higher. High beta versus low vol.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Huh.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Making a nice move.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Crypto,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Crypto.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306you know, whether you're looking at Bitcoin or Ripple.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Well that's just because of all the headlines.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Sure. Yep.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Sure.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yep. That's it. Was that too easy of sarcasm? Was that too, was that
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304It's only going up because of the headlines. I mean, okay.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Well, after all, wet streets cause rain, Ian.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304They do. I've seen that.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Bitcoin. I mean, hanging in there. 106 is just such a healthy consolidation. It still looks so good on relative basis. I mean, typically in market corrections and and I'm not saying this won't also be true going forward. Bitcoin underperforms. Stocks go down, Bitcoin goes down more. It's a high beta instrument. It's a very risk on, risk off kind of throttle, for lack of a better phrase in the moment. But we did not see that through this most recent 5 percent correction in equities.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right. That's a good point.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304It really has held up very well. And there's more products coming to market, you know, Dave and I talked about multiple times on here, just the absolute golden age of frictionless investing that we live in and what you can buy and sell in a split second. Looks like we're going to get even more in the coming months I think Solana, Ripple, Litecoin have all either fund companies have submitted paperwork or they've already been approved. I mean, I assume under this administration they'll be approved. So that type of stuff just continues. To become more accessible.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah. I mean, I still think about, you know, my dad's in heaven now, but there was a time where just to buy a mutual fund, you had to have 5, 000 and it was a front end load.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304And you had to call it, you had to call someone else to do it.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306yep. had to pay a big upfront fee to do it. Then you had all sorts of gatekeeping going on as far as when you could sell it, redemption fees, things like that. And here we sit. If you want to buy small cap India stocks. If you want to buy nuclear renaissance stocks, if you want to buy cannabis stocks, if you want to buy crypto, if you want to buy agriculture commodities without a K1, I mean, are you kidding me? And you can do this in a click of a button, and it's going to settle within a day, and your tax consequences are wrapped within an exchange traded fund, so you don't the full burden of that. I mean, we have so much to be thankful for.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304And we're likely going to get T plus zero here in the next, I assume, 24 months.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah. I don't know the timing, but you're right. Like that's, that's definitely where we're headed and
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304I mean absolutely frictionless you sell your cash is available to you. It's amazing
david_1_01-24-2025_104306it is.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304What else we have out there any other stocks that you think are important that Are showing bullet or bearish? I mean, right we talked about apple.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306yeah. I think for the one thing that stuck out for me this week is when you look at American express and you compare it to the S and P 500, this week is the first level we've ever seen it. It's a new high in that relationship going back 52 years.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Wow.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306a 52 year base, is incredible. That's beyond us, right? That's. Past our lifetimes, Ian. A base of that length, breaking to new highs. And if you want to call American Express the poster child for, you know, small business credit or the consumer,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah,
david_1_01-24-2025_104306that's, that's really impressive. And obviously it has to hold, but I know one thing that if it does hold, that's not bearish. I know that.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304probably not bear and right So this holds Then we're probably Getting like mean, we're probably you're probably getting a multi year Relative outperformance run
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right. Mm
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304maybe even a decade.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306hmm.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304I mean, you don't go side sideways for 50 years you said 57
david_1_01-24-2025_10430652.
ian_1_01-24-2025_11430452
david_1_01-24-2025_104306years.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Anyways, well, there's not an example, you know the point i'm trying to make I guess there's no difference between those two But yeah, I mean, I mean if credit cards are going to outperform for the next five to ten years You Probably not. Terrible.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306And then you have Bellwether stocks like J. P. Morgan continuing to record new all time highs. Also a massive base on a relative versus S&
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Huge, huge base.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306not, it's not 52 years.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304It's 87, that's my full lifetime.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah. Mean, it, it has, it's, it hasn't cleared this level since the twins won the World Series in 87.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Wow.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Now I, Twins won the World Series in 91, but here you have this base in these financial pieces and financials, though they don't have to outperform the S& P, the fact that they're doing this versus the S& P is notable from a risk on or risk off weight of evidence. Like typically financials are not doing well in bear markets. And so if we're in a bear market, which that seems pretty good, the least likely scenario because we just record a new all time high and we have financials doing this.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304So highest relative close for JPM since the last Twins World Series. Highest relative close for American Express since the Vikings last Super Bowl.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Oh, really? Is that what it is? It's got to
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Well, I mean, You guys last, you won your last Super Bowl in 69.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306yeah, we were that's the last one we were in we didn't win it unfortunately talk about trends I do know the Vikings are the only team in all professional sports So all your different US professional sports that have the most playoff wins without a championship
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304That's like Florida State who's been to like, I don't know how many College World Series, 16 or 17, and never won a College World Series title.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah, I I've told my son. I mean, I hope it happens in my lifetime It better happen in his and if
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304your, if your sons came to you and said, Dad, I just don't think I can do it. I don't think I can go my adult life and be a Vikings fan. Because it's gonna be too You have to say no, right? I mean, I was raised a Chiefs fan, and that took a long time
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304to get to where we are.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306being a fan fan is short for fanatic and the very definition of fanatic is to follow something Passionately regardless of outcome
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304You have to.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306and so you got to be there through the ups and downs now Would I blame them or would I hold it against them? You That they don't want to fight the trend. get it.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304I don't know, I think you're kind of, like, you are born into who your father cheered for. And that is what you get. And sometimes you get a lucky draw, and sometimes you don't.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304been lucky for your father, then they go through 40 years of insignificance. But I think it's one of those things. It's, as a child where Jesus places your soul.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304gonna be your, who's, who are you gonna be cheering for till you die? Because it's all kind of dependent on your parents.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306if, if the Vikings don't win a Superbowl in my lifetime, my, my children have permission to invite some Vikings to be my pallbearers just to let me down one last time.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304There you go.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah. But no, it's true. It's true. I mean, like there's trends and that's, that's been a longterm trend and good for American express for bucking that trend now. And maybe one day it will be the Vikings. I don't know.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304I guess higher interest rates. I mean that also kind of tells me higher interest rates are here to stay.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Oh, good point.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Now, that's a little more fundamental than Think anyone on our team likes to get, but
david_1_01-24-2025_104306that's that multi,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Don't even know. Yeah. Is that fundamental or is it just more of like a, okay, that makes sense type of thing.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306yeah. That's that cross examination of and the, and the words are lost on me. There's actually a technical analysis term for, you know, analyzing different markets for insight other markets, you know, for example, looking at the Brazilian real on how Brazilian equities are going to do,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Entry market. Yeah.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah, intramarket. Thank you. Intramarket analysis is definitely a technical, technical analysis school.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Well, you brought up spreads earlier and junk versus treasuries. I put those in the same category.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306exactly. And you're right. I mean, if you think about financials doing well, something like J. P. Morgan or American Express doing well, as interest rates rise, it, it makes sense because is there not room fundamentally for profits when the spreads are larger? When your interest rates. Or higher, there's more room to generate profit when you're at 0. 5 percent interest rate. When you're at five and a half to eight, there's a lot more room to generate profit for these firms than before. And that, yes, it's a fundamental soapbox, I think that's a fair comparison. And then you even look globally, shoot, I mean, European financials and Europe as a whole, what are we seeing from,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah. So you've got, I saw this about an hour ago. So European financials have definitely had a good start to the year. Particularly on a relative basis now. Has it changed the big picture? No, but Yeah, I mean we got European financials out to new highs You've got some pretty big the euro stocks 50 the euro stocks 600. So kind of like your you know Large caps and then your 600s kind of like everything else There aren't as many publicly traded companies in Europe as us. So I don't know if you're going to get like a stocks 2000. But stock 600 is kind of your mid cap small. I mean, both breaking out to new highs. You said this morning, you're Europe's outperforming year to date.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right?
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304I mean, how can you be sitting here black pilling about bear markets when we've got European financials breaking out to new highs before the NASDAQ 100?
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah. Yeah. No, I
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Are we going to get to December and VGK? Is up 20 percent and the S& P is up 10 percent because Apple lollygagged around for 12 months. I don't know, it's possible. We talked about how important December is and we're nearing the end of December where it's like, okay, let's be looking for what could outperform the next 11 months. It kind of seems like Europe wants to be on that list.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306make, make your upgrade again. It's been a while.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304It's been a long time.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306You know, you look at something like VGK versus S and P. I mean, that's a downtrend that's been in place since 2007. And if you were to see Europe outperform for the year, it might not even end that downtrend to be honest. But it is notable from a risk taking perspective that if, if we're going to own financials And I'm not saying us particularly are going to own European financials. We might. The charts have to prove that,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306but that is not risk off behavior. on the one hand, you got something like Apple. On the other hand, you have European financials and U S financials, breaking levels that we haven't seen for quite some time. I think we have to be open to a positive 2025 considering the uptrend is still intact, proven by the new all time high recorded yesterday using something like the S and P 500. And then you throw in things like, to, to your point about what got there first, you look at the German DAX, the German DAX getting to new all time highs first, and that, the DAX highly correlated to U. S. markets. I'm not
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Got the new, new highs two weeks ago,
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right?
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304nine days ago, but
david_1_01-24-2025_104306So I, you, it's really hard to sit here and say, and get super myopic and bearish. I understand the breath thing, I do. I get, I get why people were concerned about that. But when you see the German DACs do something like this, and I'll even make the argument you look at the Nikkei and its consolidation that appears to be breaking out of now,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304you want to talk about it? Yeah. I
david_1_01-24-2025_104306You have appetite. You have risk taking appetite out there, and that's proven by credit spreads falling. Don't know what else to tell people.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304mean, maybe we are, maybe we are buying Japanese stocks in 2025, German stocks,
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah, well, and it has been interesting from an internal perspective in our process. How many more things are sitting on my sheet to be looking at? That's information too, right? Like,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304for sure.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306your list narrows in the past month and a half, but now you're seeing the list expand on, oh wait, we got to keep an eye on this, oh, we got to keep an eye on this, and now the list is up to X amount.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304And your leaders this year, X, you said XL, industrials, energy, materials, financials, And tech underperforming the S& P.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Russell outperforming. Momentum's had a good start to the year. I mean really the only thing, I mean you've got semiconductors and internet, but other than that, it's really been Yeah, like you said, energy's had a good start. Banks.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Well, and this, and this happened in Q2, or I'm sorry, Q3 and Q4 of 2024. what I mean by that is summer of 24 tech fell off while some of these areas you just mentioned, picked up the baton and ran with it until the Q4 and then tech reasserted itself for two months. So pretty healthy rotation there, if you ask me. And so you're sitting on a market that has demand for these other areas that you just mentioned. With text sitting in the back pocket. It's kind of like Being up 14 in the fourth quarter and yeah, if the other team makes a drive and scores, you still got Mahomes on the bench ready to come back in the game. It's just really, I mean, the other red flag would be a divergent NYSE advanced decline line. You
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306it hasn't made a new high yet. And there, you know, there's different opinions on that advanced decline line because it, it, it has all sorts of components in it other than just stocks. Would we like to see that confirm? I would think transportation stocks too, are still meandering.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306would, you kind of want to see that confirm, but again, this goes back to our episode, I don't know how long ago, two or three months ago, where rarely do you get the market that checks all the boxes,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah. 100%. I don't think you, you, well, I shouldn't say that. I think this, I do know this. You can't sit there with a checklist and wait for every box to be filled.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right?
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304You can't,
david_1_01-24-2025_104306And
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304you will never ever catch big trends doing that.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right there, it's worth being aware of the back, the boxes that are unchecked. That's, I'm not saying that's not a worthwhile process, but you, you Rare is the market that gives you all the things. And the irony is when all those boxes get checked, that could be indicative of the market reaching exhaustion. Cause that's really the end of a bull market is not, it's a little bit counterintuitive for our listeners. When I say what I say next, it's not all of a sudden sellers show up. It's really just the lack of buying and all that's left is selling. That's how bull markets end is you have buying exhaustion. You have no more buyers left in this market. And here we're just exiting a period of time where hedge funds completely deleverage themselves so they can re leverage. You had historic of money going to money market. quote unquote cash on the sidelines, we didn't see like put call ratio, get nuts where people were looking to short, like crazy. I can say that, but there's information here where. The buying fuel, the law, the logs that are about to be thrown in the fire are sitting there and you could see an environment in 2025 that where the uptrend continues, only price can confirm this, but the fact that we're going to, are we now going to see international stocks participate in this, are we now going to see value stocks gain momentum? And that's really when you should own them is when value has momentum is to be involved in them. It, there's a lot of things that this market has going for it. And you're not going to, you're just not going to check all the boxes to bring that conversation full circle. You're just, it, rare. And when you do I mean, I get it. Everybody loves, you know, my, my sons love it when their favorite sports team blows out the other team. I get it. That's fun. But typically you're winning by three or a touchdown and not all the boxes are checked. An imperfect game has happened.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304chiefs have had a lot of unchecked boxes this year.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304A lot of unchecked boxes. And the Chiefs remain in an uptrend.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right. And it's, it's the same with markets. You're, you're rare, rarely. Are you going to have the perfect game? I know everybody loves it. It makes it easier. It makes it more enjoyable because then you don't have stress, right? You're up, you're, you're, your team's up. There's five minutes left. You're up by 24. That's that easy, you know, stress fee birdie or stress free power in golf. Markets don't really operate that way. They're not meant to be stress free. They're, they're most competitive arena on the planet, right? livelihoods. dependent on in the market,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah, the the risk is part of the stress.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right? is a privilege. And so if you're involved with markets, thanks for that, because that's a privilege, even though it does come with pressure, but rare is the market that is just gives everything you want. I mean, goodness knows what I love. Every trade, every position that's taken on is just gangbusters from the start and no draw down. You don't get stopped out. Sure. But that's not markets. And that's why you have to have a plan and a process for handling when your position is wrong, it's just, it's competing and competing involves stress and pressure. that can be enjoyed. That can be something that, you know, you can have joy with.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah, it can bring out the best in a lot of people.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Mm hmm. And so here we have a market with all these for, for the most part, strong contributions, but you're also aware of these other things, you know, Apple, NYSE, advanced decline line, transportation, stocks lagging. But for the most part, really healthy rotation between growth and value, high beta and low vol tech and non tech, there's really not a lot to complain about. And I go back to just shut up and enjoy it. You know, we don't have to be top callers. There, there will be a top, there will, I don't know when I wish I did, but there will be a new Era where the last all time high is called for for months on end and we're not there yet
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Or not.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Anything else you and you want to highlight for our listeners? From this past week that you want to highlight.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Not a ton. A weak dollar this week.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah,
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Gold continues to meander upwards. I'm still not in the gold. It is, it's a great absolute chart. I'm still not super interested in it. I mean, even if you, if you had bought the, let's say you bought the breakout in gold last February, you bet you've underperformed stocks.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304And it's a good chart. Like you should have brought that, bought that breakout on an absolute basis. So now that also tells me, well, if gold looks so dang healthy, and it continues to underperform equities, well,
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Think that's perfect analysis that's how that should be used like
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304yeah.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306because
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Like, I want to buy gold. It's a good looking chart. If it, if it had a better relative chart, for sure.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306right?
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304But you have not missed out on anything by not owning gold.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right, and I think that's a really important distinction is of ratio analysis or relative strength analysis is You Yeah, that absolute chart looks great. But if I put a dollar there, I missing out somewhere else? And if the answer is yes, well then you should be in the something else to begin with. But also, the second point there would be how strong are things equities if that's the case. Could put a dollar in gold or I could put a dollar in the S& P 500 and gold looks really good on an absolute basis. But on a relative basis, the S& P's in favor. Well then, there's your answer. Non sexy, I get it. It's Right, because there's a People love to tell stories. Yeah, I own some You know, around the kitchen table. Yeah, I own some gold. Sounds cool. I own some Bitcoin.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Sounds cool. It sounds cool. Sounds like you do research and you've got this cool diversified portfolio and that's real neat. It's real neat for cocktail parties. I get it. But if you want to compare returns, that's
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Which is what we're about. We're in
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304what I'm about.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306We're in markets to make our clients money. Right? We're not in them because they're fun.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Hey, no one dogs on European stocks more than us.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304if the chart says I need to own European stocks, might not be the first in line, but I will be towards the front.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yep. And no one loves a market with diversified returns more than we do. Right. Q1 of 2022 was in the
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Yeah.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306had, you had commodities energy outperforming everything else. That, that was, that was fun in the sense of like solving a problem. I don't mean fun from getting, you know, jollies from
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Stocks going down. Yeah.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306So like, if the chart says to be involved in it, we'll be involved in it. We'll adapt, adapt or die. And to Ian's point, if that's European stocks, great.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Cool. Let's do it.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Yeah. All right. You know it for for over a decade. It's been an s& p 500 show and someday that will change don't know if this year is that year if this year is just that counter trend move in that relationship with something like european stocks versus s& p I don't know But point is if you see absolute performance out of gold and european stocks that look like this yet they are still in Sideways ranges or downtrends versus the s& p You still gotta tilt, you still gotta tilt towards the trend, you still gotta tilt towards the Chiefs rather than the Vikings. You just do. And that pains me. I'm a Vikings fan. But it's okay.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304I hear you.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306money. You know, you gotta protect your, you're involved in markets because you gotta protect your purchasing power. That's it. If eggs are gonna fly upwards in price, how are you gonna protect your dollar that buys those eggs? But you gotta be involved in markets. That's why we do it.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304I hear you. Yeah. I 100 percent agree.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306So with that, I do wanna highlight the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select. listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker ADPV, which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum, and relative strength. proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, Adaptive Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short term treasury bills and cash during long term market downtrends. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV, by visiting ADPVETF. com or calling 1 833 880 5200. As always, investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ADPV is distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. With that, Ian, we're reaching the end of our time. Anything else before we sign off and ask our listeners for a high ranking? Right.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Nope. That's all I got. I think we put forth a ton of evidence about what's going on at the index level, what's going on underneath the, the surface. And maybe the evidence is different next week, but after, you know, taking it as, as a whole, don't know. It just kind of feels like the opposite of bear market. Not once in history has it happened.
david_1_01-24-2025_104306Right. There will be a time when the, there will be a last all time high for a few years, it's not yet. We'll see. We have our price levels. We have our risk management levels. We'll continue to use those. We'll continue to adapt to what the market gives us manage money accordingly. Our clients are fully aware of that and we really appreciate everybody listening. know, we have thousands of thousands of listeners across the globe. If you like this, you find it valuable. It gives you insights each week. We do ask you to share it. We ask you to give us a high ranking on your platform of choice. We're on all the platforms. whatever you're using we appreciate you guys listening. Take care.
ian_1_01-24-2025_114304Have a good weekend, everyone.