Episode 241: Valens Trends

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the S&P hitting an all time high, recent consolidations, Russell 2000 continuing to lag behind, Gold, gauging the economy based on charts, and international equities with the recent pullback of the US Dollar. 

Transcript

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 0:26

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, February 14th, 2025, Valentine's Day. S& P 500 currently sitting at 61. 22. I'm David Zierling. And I'm here with a man of summer, Ian McMillan.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 0:42

Yes.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 0:42

to talk about this week.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 0:43

Lot of movement, mainly upwards, technically s and p hitting a all time high this morning. See if that sticks

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 0:53

Yeah, see if that can hold.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 0:55

all the noise. It's couple big gap downs on Mondays over the last few weeks. Oh, all the worries about, what was it, deep seek? Notice how that's gone away.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 1:09

Yeah.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 1:09

I haven't heard anyone talk about that for, maybe they still are. But all of the feather ruffling. And here we are. All Time Highs. For the S& P.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 1:19

I'm on it. You know, I think it's, it's fair that for, I don't know, November through first week in February here, markets move sideways. Whether you're using S& P, whether you're using small caps, whether you're using the NASDAQ, it's been a consolidation, and what you look for as a technician is for that consolidation to break to the upside to confirm the uptrend is intact, If it's truly an uptrend, consolidations confirm in the direction of the trend, and we've been having an uptrend since Late 2023 and here we go and we continue on and I find it fascinating that some of the surveys that are out there that almost of investors expect a correction during the next six months and you have a bull bears, you know, investment survey showing the most bearishness we we've seen since. November of 2023. And we were only how many points off the all time highs.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 2:24

Yeah? How about that? Nasdaq, close to All Time Highs.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 2:29

right? The big boys.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 2:30

Continues to lead. Dow, I mean Russell is I don't know. I don't know. Russell's so far behind on this march up the mountain that I think they just stopped waiting for him.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 2:43

When you do wonder if there's ever going to be that quote unquote catch up trade,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 2:49

You do wonder

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 2:50

but small caps have been having us wonder for over two years now

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 2:54

yeah

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 2:54

to be the case

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 2:55

Yeah, you look at the relative chart and you say okay Maybe something here. I mean there's definitely been periods where q4 2023 Last summer. That was kind of more to the downside, but there's been this last post election reaction. I mean, you know, I don't know. I mean, just never holds. And what's great is we don't have to be involved just in case it moves without us. We can just wait.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 3:29

yeah, we can wait for the chart to confirm and whatever, what Ian's point is. Highlighting here is, for context, small caps are 7 percent off of their all time highs, and something like the S& P is 26 percent above its 2021 highs.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 3:46

Mm. The struggle is real.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 3:49

Struggle is real, but there will be a day, and we'll make sure to highlight it on this podcast, small caps will gain some traction and have some alpha opportunity to it. The time's not yet here.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 4:01

Mid cap's better, but not, Mean, you look like at an MDY kind of looks like the Dow maybe, but still also lagging, so

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 4:11

If you look at an MDY versus S& P, mean, we're at the same level we were back in 2004.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 4:19

yeah.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 4:20

And many technicians would call this an area of interest, a neckline, an area of polarity. It's an area where demand for mid caps in the past has outpaced the S& P. You know, we did that in 2008. We did that in 2020, some response in summer of 24, but it would need to get itself together here pretty soon to confirm that's going to be the case. Again, otherwise it's going to be a large cap show. I'm

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 4:47

Maybe that's okay.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 4:49

yeah. When you're, when your stars outperform, I don't. I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 4:53

A lot of these companies start off, though. I mean, like, look at a Palantir

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 4:58

Great. They start off as a mid cap.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 5:00

or Yeah, mid cap or even large cap with a lot of these IPOs. So it's, I mean, it's like these things never even had a chance to be in the Russell 2000.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 5:08

You're just saying by the time they did their initial public

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 5:11

Yeah, by the time they IPO, they were 200 billion and then they go direct into some large cap index and then we talk about, well, look how strong large caps are. And it's like, well, Yeah, and I know that's, I mean, a lot of that probably has been the whole, mean, that's just how venture capitalism and private equity have worked over the last 20 years. It's just been cheap, cheap, cheap, cheap to hold on to these things until they are massive. I mean, if you're borrowing at 2%, you're not in a massive rush to pay back that debt.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 5:42

well on that. I think that's an excellent point. I mean, when you, when you come to markets to raise capital, to expand your business for many years now, you went to the credit market first, right? That those rates, as you alluded to pretty cheap. And then you came to the stock market last. In order to raise funds and so by the time you're at that point, you're IPO as a, as a more than a mid cap

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 6:05

Mm hmm.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 6:06

you do wonder under a new regime of rising rates. 40 years, if eventually that will hasten that progression.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 6:15

Yeah, it would be nice. I would love to see companies you know, society changing companies come to market at a billion dollars, and not two hundred billion. But they still stock select well, I mean look at your Palantir's, your, I don't know what Robinhood IPO dad, I'm sure it was huge. I mean, and so many of these companies are, are massive brand names before the IPO now. But yeah, so, to come full circle, small caps, terrible. On a relative basis. Not great on an absolute basis either, but, trying.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 6:51

And we're seeing, you know, when you look at the start of the year, you know, your top sectors in the U S communication services, materials, financials, healthcare, energy, not necessarily risk off and leading

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 7:10

No.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 7:11

the materials are gold miners, metal and mining. Not too

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 7:15

Retail's been good.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 7:17

Yep.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 7:18

Lot of things, and discretionary has got hit a little bit lately on a relative basis mainly due to Tesla, I would argue. But yeah, that will affect X, O, Y. But under the surface, lots and lots of things working well. I mean, you'd kind of say the same for industrials. There's stuff out there. Do I want to own xli? Yeah

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 7:42

Well, that's because it's you know, it's it's top weightings in XLI There's some pretty bad

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 7:48

what's in there

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 7:49

pretty bad charts in there But what's the in your like let's you know, if you look at the top 10 of XLI, you know You have GE which looks good ADP uber Boeing Union Pacific Lockheed Martin

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 8:06

bowing? Yeah

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 8:09

But I mean, things like Honeywell, not looking great. I

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 8:12

Oof.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 8:13

Union Pacific, you know, and I should, when I say not looking great, I mean, on a relative basis, like they're not leading the sector higher,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 8:22

Yeah,

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 8:23

but you have plenty of things in industrials. And I, and I find it interesting that as strong of a start of a year that gold has had as a precious metal, copper's be doing even better.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 8:35

seriously

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 8:37

Yeah. Gold's up. 10 percent year to date and copper's up 16.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 8:42

yes in here at this 480 level four dollars and eighty cents

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 8:46

you know, an industrial metal, like copper potentially setting up to move higher. We'll see would be pretty significant from if you want to call it. Intermarket analysis to see that happen. And we're starting to see international strength, Poland, Sweden, Germany. I mean, Germany, the DAX highly correlated to us markets

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 9:07

It is

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 9:08

Continues to

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 9:09

that out. Yeah, very strong.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 9:12

mean up 3 percent on the week and even places in Latin America, and we've talked about Argentina, but I mean, you've got Chile, Columbia, Brazil, Mexico. Now, many of those though. While they're up strongly year to date, you know, you look at, you look at Brazil priced in dollars and it still has plenty of work to do. It's not like the opportunity is over there if that's going to actually take place. I mean, it, it remains in the downtrend and the, this, this type of move would be considered a counter trend in nature.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 9:44

Another move needs to be discussed As I am perusing currency charts

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 9:52

Okay.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 9:53

US dollar index below 107.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 9:57

Wow. Yeah,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 9:59

So again like all charts got a stick but Potentially getting back in this range 100 to 107 been in it for I mean two years Basically up until this past mid december. We know that's kind of when stocks started to go sideways At least the major indices we had a lot of Intermediate term tops back mid December. That was a lot of that was on the back of Dollar breaking higher breaking out of this range And we're retesting that hopefully going back in that range. So We will see if that is going to be a Tailwind for stocks.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 10:46

I think that's a great point to bring up. I mean, since November of 22, The dollar has been, had been in that range between 100 and 107 and the market performed very, very well. And your point being that once the trade weighted dollar got above 107, that's when we started seeing some weakness or consolidating in the, in the market, broadly speaking, U. S. market. And if we're going to drop back into this range. Is that indicative of continued equity strength? will tell. I mean, we know that the relationships between the dollar and markets change all the time.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 11:21

So far the market seems to like it.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 11:23

Yep. Despite anybody's opinion on tariffs or deep seek or doge or any of those things, turns out the market could care less about our opinions. Very hurtful, very inconsiderate to not,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 11:39

Can't believe you'd say something like that on Valentine's Day.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 11:42

yeah. Market's not our Valentine. Market does not love us,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 11:47

Will not be mine.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 11:49

will not be mine. It's the great, it's the great humble pie machine. Doesn't care your certificates. Your Nobel Prize winning research, your white papers, your popularity on YouTube. The market doesn't care.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 12:03

Yeah Go figure YouTube popularity YouTube subscribers Did not lead to good returns In the stock market. I'm shocked. It's a hard game

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 12:20

It is. the arena. It's the most competitive arena on the planet. You know, fresh off the Super Bowl, which we won't talk about on here, because I know that's a tough topic, but we all watch professional college sports. At least most of us do. I, you know, I don't, I don't want to speak for every listener and those are hard, but I'd argue markets are the most competitive place on the planet. And you're

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 12:44

a lot of money involved lot of money a lot of egos lot of big fish a lot of small fish You

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 12:50

and markets are not for romance. Markets are not for fun. They're not for emotional jollies. We're not in markets for entertainment. It's purely speaking like we, you know, we talk about, I think there's some probably three letter acronym economic release this week, if we're going to talk about inflation, I mean, really the, the reason why people and our clients are involved in the market is to protect their purchasing power. Let's not forget this. It's not about how entertaining it is or how right it might make us seem. It's about protecting purchasing power. So when you get in your retirement years or unproductive years, you're able to still maintain your standard of living, be able to take care of yourself, healthcare wise, be able to buy food. That's why we do it. And I think sometimes that gets lost being investing or talking about the hottest stock that's out there that there's some entertainment value or that there's some emotional attachment. Not true. I have a process, have a plan, and it's all about protecting that purchasing power. Kind of went on a soapbox there.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 13:57

No, I think it's great.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 13:58

What are we seeing out of breath? Like

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 14:00

I think it remains pretty good. Obviously talks about a few sectors. You know, and I, I know the counter arguments and why isn't RSP outperforming or small, small gaps or mid gaps or any of this other stuff. I don't know if I have a gradient. I mean, just is what it is.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 14:19

Isn't that come down to math? I mean, if you've got a cap weighted index versus an equal weighted index. And you have the momentum factor in a trend that you're going to see the big get bigger, right? Because, you know, percent on a 500 billion market cap is a much bigger number than 50 billion market cap.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 14:40

for sure. No, I think a lot of the, you know, we talk about being sideways for the last two months. You know, Apple sideways. Tesla, NVIDIA, a lot of these bigger names. Gosh, I haven't looked at a Microsoft chart and that thing's been sideways for a year. Can you believe that? Microsoft sideways for a year!

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 15:01

Well, and last week Kevin and I highlighted that Microsoft versus S& P, same spot it was in July of 2020.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 15:10

Mmm.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 15:11

Mean that's going on five years of percent alpha from one of the all stars of the S& P 500.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 15:18

Apple recovering.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 15:19

Yep.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 15:20

Went down to its 200 day. Back above that 238 level, so, we will try this again.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 15:27

Well, and energy continues to struggle, and that's one of the lowest weightings in the S& P.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 15:33

Yeah, I mean, right in crude itself. Downward slipping 200 day.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 15:39

And you know, you know,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 15:40

barrel.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 15:41

you think, you think about a new, a new president, you think, okay, you the choice of an, of investing in solar versus coal. Guess what? Coal's down 16 percent year to date.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 15:57

What's solar doing?

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 15:58

Solar's up about three.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 16:00

Kai?

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 16:01

Ethanol's up about seven. More than gasoline. So your, your market potential market narratives that you might build around your political view might want to check that at the door when you get involved in a market because markets are a future discounting mechanism. What do you think about gold miners and gold?

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 16:20

Don't know, man. I mean, strong move, golly. And right, we, I don't know how many times I've seen people post this gold chart. And it does, it's a great chart. Get it. Gold's up and to the right. Very strong. I don't know. And like the relative, like we're back above a relative 200 day now on the gold miners. But, it's gross. Sloppy. Mean I still, gold's up, don't know how much since it broke out above, what was it like 2100? Is that kind of one of the areas? Yeah, 2100 bucks. Last February, we're sending 2900. That's 40%. It's a good run. Has outperformed the S& P a little bit, a little bit. Has since, technically since Jan, if you want to snap that chalk line, January 1st, 2024. I don't know, I'm just, I'm just still not, not really feeling it, yet.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 17:22

Well, I think it has to do with the relative

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 17:24

It does. Yeah, it's the relative.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 17:27

you're looking at, you know, let's just use gold futures versus S and P futures. We're sitting at a really important level near 0. 5 in that relationship. And it needs a clear that for it to confirm alpha versus S and P.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 17:46

Has an outperformed SSO.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 17:48

No, no, it hasn't.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 17:51

Not that there's not 2x gold. I'm sure there is in gold miners and all that. But, yeah. And I get, I mean, it's been strong, right? Strong dollar. Gold's still been strong. Gold around the world. Strong dollar, right? That obviously kind of is a tailwind. Gold denominated in other currencies. So, weak dollar, gold, I mean we got gold, we have the dollar getting hit, gold getting hit. So it'll be interesting if, like, a weak dollar leads to weak gold. Cause, I don't know, rising rate of, I don't know. Maybe it keeps going up. I'm not stressing.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 18:32

No.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 18:33

I'm not pulling my hair out hoping. Clients don't email me asking why we don't own gold. Yeah, I can give you the phone number to Roslyn Capital.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 18:43

there's a definitely a, a pretty clear line in the sand here near 0. 05 for gold versus S and P that can be used and we'll be happy to participate for sure. If that becomes the case. How about

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 18:59

be neat.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 19:00

crypto?

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 19:01

Crypto, Bitcoins. Hanging out for now. Still in the range. Really haven't moved much. I mean, Bitcoin hasn't moved much in all of February. Yeah.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 19:16

Well, and even going back to November of 24, November of last year, you know, we're going on four months of nowhere for Bitcoin. That's a pretty solid consolidation considering what it did before then. And we're getting an expansion in tools to participate in crypto. It appears.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 19:35

Yes, yes. Hopefully some Litecoin, Solana. Think Ripple's trying to get an ETF.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 19:43

Yep.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 19:44

Can't tell you their utility. Don't know. There's a lot of stocks that I can't tell you their utility. So it's kind of a moot point with me.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 19:51

Well, it's like Palantir. Can anybody really tell you what they do?

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 19:54

No, but it's liquid. I can get in and out of it. I can look at the chart. So that works.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 20:00

Cause I would argue even the fundamental analysts don't know. what Palantir does, which would make sense considering their heavy involvement with government contracts and the Department of Defense. I mean, probably shouldn't know everything that they are capable of doing.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 20:16

What about Apple? I don't know what Apple Oven does. They make things like platforms for apps.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 20:20

they love apps. And I assume it's not like what you have before the main entree. I'm assuming it's not fried cheese sticks

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 20:28

What if, what if that really was it? They're just, they make the best jalapeno poppers. And that's why they're up 9, 000 percent.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 20:39

could be, I suppose it would match, you know, when you look across the board on, how's the U S consumer doing? Mean, there's a, know you can look at some fundamental reports on, on retail sales. But you could also look at how cruise lines are doing, how

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 20:56

Yeah.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 20:57

are doing, how lot of the discretionary

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 21:00

Hotels, yeah.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 21:02

credit cards are doing.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 21:04

We were talking about, and then what the, I mean, anything vacation related, including talked about it yesterday during market call, like the bookings and the Expedias, and all those things that touch people going places for pleasure. Hot.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 21:22

Consumer seems to be just fine. And I get it, there's always going to be a government report that points to the contrary. I totally get that. You know, like whether it's on credit cards, or delinquency on car payments, or sales.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 21:37

Well, and of course, a lot of times when they bring this stuff up, you know, credit card debt. Values Nominal figures. So oh the u. s. Hit an all time high and outstanding credit card debt. Well, yeah I mean, there's just more I mean, I would assume there's more credit card debt than there was in 1993 There's a lot more money out there and a lot more people

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 22:04

But yeah, there's a lot, there's a lot more people and a lot more people in their earning years.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 22:09

and things cost more you put in a TV on the credit card That well TV is a bad example TVs actually given their technological advances gotten pretty cheap over the last 20 years but Computer you put a computer on the credit card It's what, 2, 000 bucks now? 1990, well maybe that was also a bad example. Computers are pretty expensive. But, you know, whatever. It was, things just cost more. Grocery bill. Your grocery bill costs more. So it's kind of like, also like, you know, they do it a lot in the market. Like outstanding you know, total assets of people shorting the S& P. Or, you know, You know, Oh, there's 50 trillion in SMP puts now. Well, yeah, I mean, of course that's more than it was 20 years ago. And in 2045, it's going to be even way bigger than it is now.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 23:07

because there's going to be more people

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 23:09

More people

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 23:10

is real

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 23:10

in the SMP is going to be at like 15, 000 and it's just the way it works, big numbers get bigger

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 23:18

math. There's definitely not enough attention given to the demographic piece of this and I, and I get it like I, I'm a firm believer. You got to have a positive birth rate. You got to be above replacement rate. It's a good thing for society. And I know we don't have that right now, but we do have a growing population. And the more people there are that, I mean, it's demand for products that have less supply. So yes, there will be some inflationary And again, that's why we're involved in markets, not for the fun of it, for, but, but for protecting purchasing power. Don't know why people don't pay attention more to the demographic piece.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 23:55

as far as the economy,

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 23:58

Yeah, just there's more people. That means more consumers, more producers,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 24:05

you have more people that have a credit card in their wallet.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 24:08

more people traveling, and there's still going to be cycles. I mean, there's still going to be the housing cycle. You're still going to have. Booms and busts. You know, whether we're talking about a new technology, like artificial intelligence, be, it's going to be a boom and a bust. That's absolutely going to happen. But this population wave that we're in right now, and that's, that's your generation, Ian, you know, reaching into their peak earning years, family

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 24:34

I put it all on the credit card.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 24:36

get those points in cash back.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 24:39

I'm not, I could be better with the points. I, I, I know a couple people that are really good with the credit card points, but I dunno if I'm disciplined enough.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 24:48

My wife is a maestro.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 24:50

She's good.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 24:51

Oh yeah. We get a pretty, pretty nice cash back. So, you know, you put it on there, pay it off every time. Build up that cash, get a check every year. She does a pretty good job.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 25:03

send, they send you a check like at the end of the year.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 25:05

Yup. We'll use it. We'll use it this year for an excursion with the kids during spring break. It'd be good. I know we've kind of dovetailed off here on some fundamental things, but think it's because in some sense, the market remains with the same characteristics that it's had the past few weeks to a couple of months here,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 25:26

Mm-hmm

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 25:27

where we've had a breath reset, you know, we have bullish percent in the fifties. We're not sitting here up in the 80s and 90s, which is when you need to sit up and pay attention and say, okay

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 25:36

Yeah. Bull. You're right. Bullish. Percent. What'd we look at earlier this week? It's like at 51.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 25:42

Mm hmm,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 25:43

Yes. You're not screaming. We've gone sideways for two months. After a healthy post election rally

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 25:53

and we held that gap from the election Like there there's some auctioning processes that are going on here where you're checking out if the buyers from the election are real

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 26:01

we did all this without megacaps.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 26:03

Right, you know and some will point to hey, there's only or 50 percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average. There's two ways to look at that. Is that a divergence? Yes. But is that also a reset point? Is this where you start to see a broadening out? Because you're seeing a broadening out in international,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 26:22

We are we are seeing that and don't know I kind of put international up there with gold like It acts like it wants to be serious. And then Of course you get you do get these areas. I mean you mentioned argentina's been strong israel's been strong. I mentioned the dax earlier yeah, we'll see china still kind of waiting on china having a good day today

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 26:50

And European financials are points away from recording their first, the brand new all time high. That we haven't seen since 2014 and they can rug pull it. They could act like they could sell it here, to sell the market, what to do. But how, how bullish and productive would that be? If we're seeing European financials go out to their highest levels ever, you got the DAX moving out continuously to new all time highs. You've got the Nikkei at its highs, wonderful consolidation, and if that moves higher, there's just a lot of characteristics supporting. The weight of it, evidence of an uptrend. And I get it. What you have to combine a couple of timeframes here. I understand that the following weeks to end February seasonality speaking, extremely negative. Like

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 27:38

Yes,

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 27:39

this upcoming two week period upcoming next week in the following week, worst weeks in a six month period of November through April. Do we pull back during that could absolutely happen, but wouldn't negate the uptrend necessarily. And I will say, you know, we were, if you want to say long in the tooth, since we've tested the 200 day moving average on something like the S and P or even the, NASDAQ,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 28:03

yeah,

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 28:05

you know, it's the second, second log longest period of time of not testing the 200 day on the NASDAQ

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 28:12

we haven't been in S& P since we, what was that, November 23,

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 28:16

yeah, November of 2023.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 28:18

dipped below for a week or so, jumped right back above, we were off to the races, barely even been below a hundred day moving average in that time period, I mean we've been down there for about four days total. Little bit last August and then the day in January.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 28:35

no, I get it. And since we're bumping up towards the end of our time, always like to highlight the supporter of this podcast, the adaptive select ETF list on the New York stock exchange under ticker ADPV. which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength proprietary identification methods. The adaptive select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving short term treasury bills and cash during long term market downtrends. Investors can find out more, including how to invest in ADPV by visiting ADPVETF. com or calling 1 833 880 5200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. So before we wrap up and ask people to give us a high ranking, anything you want to highlight before we close it down?

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 29:34

trend remains healthy. You know, we talked about these Monday morning gap downs over the last month or so. They're definitely painful. I mean, you're sitting out on Sunday night but they immediately get bought up. So I think that also speaks as as gross as they are Monday morning at the open by Friday. It gets scooped up.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 30:03

Right. And the good news is no, no gap down on Monday, President's Day.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 30:08

that's true. Thank you to our presidents.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 30:11

Yep. So if it's going to be a gap down, it's going to be Tuesday. But your point is valid. You see these gaps down. They've been bought up the last three weeks on the verge of clearing new all time highs. We have a while to go to a close. It feels like the last few recordings, we've said that, and the market sold off in the afternoon going into the weekend. We'll see if that's the case this week. It would be a character change if it did not.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 30:34

That would be nice.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 30:35

It would be nice. I appreciate you being back on here. I know you're in a week of mourning over the Chiefs.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 30:41

Oh, terrible.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 30:43

but I appreciate you

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 30:44

I don't know why they complain.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 30:45

and you got to be in the game to lose the game. So at

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 30:47

Yeah.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 30:48

the game, but it's a lot like markets. It's no fun to lose big, rather lose small. So I get it, but at least you're in it, at least you're in the game,

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 30:58

Yes.

david_1_02-14-2025_100654 30:59

but I appreciate you being back on here to everyone listening. We hope you enjoy this. Share it with your friends. Give us a high ranking means a lot to us. Thank you.

ian_1_02-14-2025_110655 31:07

Have a great weekend, everyone.