Episode 245: Markets Stay Rocky

In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin give a quick update on the major indices being below their 200 day moving averages. They also talk about the sectors that are still above their 200 day moving averages, the continued strength out of international equities, gold, and copper. 

Transcript

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 0:28

back to The Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is March 14th, 2025 s and p currently sitting at, ugh, I haven't, we haven't been this low on this number in a while.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 0:40

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 0:41

55, 88. That would be your lowest price. I mean, we're back to where we were in September. So, yeah, definitely some damage done over the last two weeks. Last, really probably over the last four weeks. And really just no let up this week. Huh Kevin, I.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 1:02

No, not really. I mean. I kinda, yesterday I had few glimmers of hope. Then we might try to buy that back up in the s and p, kind of back towards like 5600, 50, 700, something like that. But just, I don't know, never really stuck. So yeah, it's been unfortunate.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 1:19

Really weak, really weak

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 1:21

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 1:22

rallies, of course. I mean, they got another one going this morning. Markets are up s and p at least up a percent. as of this recording. But they've done this a lot over the last few weeks. They've turned in some major nothing burgers by the close. Yeah, really, really persistently down market. I think this was brought up last week, but still, no concrete or common. Evidence of a flush. No. down day yet.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 1:58

No.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 1:58

No in people rushing to buy puts betting against the market. Just a relentless pummeling.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 2:07

Yeah. What did Dave call it in the chat yesterday? A slow bleed, which I think is,

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 2:11

it

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 2:11

yeah.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 2:12

like such a slow bleed. yeah, broad indices are terrible. But then you have these sessions where, yeah, yesterday we only had 65% of stocks down.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 2:22

Which I would not have guessed that. No, I.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 2:25

a few sessions where I would've definitely put some money on the table that we had an 80% down day. I know we've gotten close. We had some seventies, no no magical 80% yet.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 2:39

No. I mean, it is, it's actually just kind of wild looking at it, just how controlled it's been. I mean. It is about as orderly as a sell off as you could probably get. Like kinda like you're doing a fire drill at school, right? Like fire alarms go off, everybody gets in their lines and you just exit the building in an orderly fashion.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 2:58

Yes.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 2:58

That's kinda what it seems to be.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 2:59

All in step together.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 3:01

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 3:01

I think you said what? We only have three. We have three sectors above

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 3:08

A 200 day. Yeah. Yeah. So the only ones financials, utilities, and. Communication services.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 3:14

Okay.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 3:15

And I would say, I mean really utilities had, they actually did have one close below the 200 day, was that last Thursday? And kind rallied from there. I would say in an absolute. Basis, they probably held up the best. I mean, financials have been selling off as well, but you know, they're probably like, oh, what is this? Like 3% or so from the 200 day And it's kind of held that, you know, this week kind of just chopped around. And I would say, you know, communication services, that's been a pretty orderly. Retreat as well. But you know, I mean, that was kind of one of the strongest sectors, so they had a little bit more wiggle room there.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 3:57

Yeah, finding some support here,

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 3:59

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 4:00

where we did mid-January.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 4:02

They're around 95 bucks on XLC. It would make sense if they can hold it here.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 4:06

Held above its election gap which cannot be said for many sectors and sub-industries. We've, yeah, all four major indices below their 200 day moving average, I believe. I mean, right. If we're back in September, then we're clearly below all the election moves. So definitely yeah. I mean, US stocks have taken a hit or in stocks and as someone who loves to roll their eyes, anytime European equities get brought up, I gotta hand it to him.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 4:40

Yeah, I mean, they're doing well.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 4:41

Charts continue to look good, continue to improve. Yeah, Hey, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna deny it.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 4:49

No, I mean, it's even not like, it's not just Europe either. I mean, Latin America's been looking pretty good. I mean, Peru looks good. Argentina, you know, had a bit of a. If you look there for a minute, but they've kind of bought it back up.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 5:02

What about China?

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 5:03

China

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 5:05

China

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 5:05

good.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 5:05

strong.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 5:06

Mm-hmm. So, I mean.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 5:08

China today using FXI not gonna go and look at all the. Chinese indices and local currencies. But China FXI back to its highest price since February, 2022. So we were just entering that bear market back then. Obviously China itself had been a downtrend since February, 2021 at that point. So they are certainly a leader to the downside. We'll be interesting to see if they are a leader to the upside this time around.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 5:37

For sure, like real.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 5:38

market, US markets didn't react for a year. So I hope that we're not getting the opposite this time. We're gonna have to wait a year for US equities to start going up.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 5:50

That would be something I,

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 5:51

I mean, relative chart kind of hard to deny that.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 5:54

mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 5:55

A intermediate term, clearly long term you haven't missed anything. But if there was going to be a multi-month, multi-year turnaround, I could definitely see it starting like this.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 6:09

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 6:09

I.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 6:10

Yeah, I mean,'cause it's almost like it's harder to find things internationally that. Don't look as good right at this point. And really the only things like Australia, not really all that impressive New Zealand. But I mean, we talked about Latin America. Looks fine, Europe, fine, Asia,

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 6:25

Yeah, I

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 6:26

fine.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 6:26

one week returns and it's still, I mean, it's all straight down. Austria, Greece, Poland, China, I. China, China, internet, Finland, Spain, financials, and I mean, I just, I'm not gonna read through all 29 or

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 6:45

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 6:45

are on here, but yeah, go find things that are green over the last month, over the last week. And there is very, very little in regards to. equities. In fact, I barely see any, I mean, like I don't see anything

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 7:02

Mm-hmm. And I mean with, you know, we talked about the three sectors, I guess, that are still above their 200 day, I mean, within financials, you know, insurance has started to look really good. Really just broad insurance, like even the brokers services, like all your, you know, multi-line names, property and casualty. I mean, things are looking pretty good there,

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 7:21

No tariffs on insurance.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 7:23

right? Yeah, I guess not.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 7:25

It's one place you could probably hide out if

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 7:27

Yeah.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 7:27

something that you're spooked over.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 7:29

Mm-hmm. And I mean, you know, kind of the lead up before this was pretty heavy, like broker dealers, exchanges, you know, your. Larger banks, investment banks, managers. I mean, some of that's cooled off. You know, like your banks, bigger banks, not necessarily looking all that good. JP Morgan holding the 200 day today, closed below it yesterday.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 7:53

Yeah.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 7:54

kind of just closed that election gap really well, not quite, pretty close. I mean, it was right around there. So is that just kinda like a gap fill and then go. I don't know, but I mean, like you're, there's still, a good handful of brokers that still look, you know, pretty good, which you talked about what I, a, I, before we, or what is it?

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 8:14

Yeah, I,

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 8:15

I, I, right? Yep. I mean, that's, I kinda holding the 200 day for now. The exchanges still look fine. I kind of already talked about insurance, so I mean, there's. You know, things in there that actually look pretty interesting. It's not like they're only performing on a relative basis, right? These are still charts that look good on an absolute basis, which I guess is a plus. And like within communication services, I mean, your telecom names are still holding up pretty well. You know, I mean, I wouldn't say that they're the most inspiring absolute charts by any means, but they really didn't get hit all that hard. You know, Netflix is kind holding up for now. You know, Meta's hanging in there, so. I guess it's not like everything necessarily is getting sold.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 9:01

How's our gold friends doing?

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 9:03

Looks pretty good.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 9:04

Pretty good.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 9:05

Yeah. That move yesterday above, like using GLD above like 2 72 72 was a pretty nice move yesterday.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 9:13

yeah. Those relative charts, they can really start to become attractive. Harder win broad markets going up.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 9:22

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 9:23

But once the ma, those major indices start going down things that are flat or continue moving higher, certainly sort of stand out more. I would put gold and silver in those categories.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 9:36

Mm-hmm. Anyway, I know you talked about copper, I think earlier in the week.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 9:39

Yeah, copper was back up there near its high. I haven't seen where it's at. Four 90 area. It's 4 88 today. Right? So, and I mean, a lot of people will tell you, oh, copper, I mean, copper looks fine. That's supposed to be like a leading indicator.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 9:55

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 9:55

Not for us per se but pretty common leading indicator. People like to see how the price coppers is doing. Kind of a canary for industrial production and things like that, but has not rolled over. Maybe that's a broad commodity thing. Maybe that's a weaker dollar thing.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 10:14

Yeah, that's a good point. I said dollar's been getting hit pretty hard lately, last couple weeks.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 10:19

real tough. Right. And so this goes back to, it goes back to, I thought, weak dollar good for stocks.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 10:30

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 10:30

Well, here we are in a period where that's

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 10:33

For international equities, maybe at least.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 10:35

and yeah, I think you could say. I mean, we had a strong dollar, strong stocks starting back in September which had also been a people kind of ignore that type of stuff when everything's working. But so we'll see. And I think it is important to. I bring to the attention that our sponsor for the podcast, A DPV, listed on the NYSE helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength through proprietary identification methods. The adaptive select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks, and when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, DAPA Select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during market. Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in AD PV by visiting ad p vf.com. Calling 1 8 3 3 8 8 0 5200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle distributed by Quasar distributors LLC. That fund does go to cash looking at a five and 200 day moving average when the five is below 200 day on a Friday. The following week strategy moves to the short term TBOs that were mentioned, and that will get its first since October, 2023.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 12:10

It's been a nice run.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 12:11

It has been a nice run. We'll see. It could always be a fake out, right? We could

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 12:14

Yeah.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 12:14

back in equities in a week. That's how trend following happens. But for the sake of this strategy long-term trends, we have now triggered a kind of, we're gonna go hang out, we're gonna go hang out in the right hand lane for a little bit. and maybe next week we're on the podcast, Kevin, and. We're 120% long. I don't know. Could happen,

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 12:37

Yeah, it.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 12:38

it will not, be happening today.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 12:40

No, and I mean I think right since I've been here, the times where it's protect mode, you really have not seen any action out of international equities

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 12:50

No.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 12:51

or even, I mean, I don't think necessarily precious metals look gold have necessarily looked as good as they do now. So kind of an interesting spot, right, where you're essentially just trying to protect

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 13:02

Totally

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 13:03

from US equity exposure, then total. You know, you're not necessarily in total protection mode, right?

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 13:08

If you told me US stock started falling apart a month ago. I would say, okay, so I assume European started, European stocks must have started falling apart like two months

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 13:19

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 13:20

Definitely getting the opposite and hey, this is, this is how things change. You know, we sit here and whine about the Mag seven and large cap tech and how much we would give for a 2003 to 2007 period again. just, maybe this is how we're gonna get there.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 13:38

Mm-hmm. Yeah. I mean, it's right. I mean it nice to be able to identify that and participate in it when it happens, right?

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 13:44

mean, it would, it would. How such a good point. The fact that you can see that real time on a chart, I. And say, Hey, this is probably something I should have some exposure to.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 13:55

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 13:56

Pretty cool.

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 13:57

It is.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 13:58

Well, that's all we have this week, Kevin. I know you've got some meetings to get

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 14:02

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-5ggg_1_03-14-2025_103907 14:03

So thank you all for joining us. Please give us a good review your podcast platform of choice. If you enjoyed our conversation today. Have a great weekend, everyone,

kevin--hey-you-_1_03-14-2025_093908 14:14

Have a good weekend.