The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 260: Mid-Summer Cooling?
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In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss what it means to be at all-time highs, the recent breakout for Bitcoin, how precious metals have performed recently, international equities, and what sectors of the market are currently "hands off" and which ones are performing well on a relative basis.
Welcome back to The Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, July 11th, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 62 51. I'm David Darling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. We took a a break last week from the podcast to celebrate Independence Days. You have a good fourth.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819An amazing 4th of July. Very, very fun. How about you?
david_1_07-11-2025_101839It was great. Did some, uh, time with family at the lake. Can't beat it. Super fun. Nope. Little bit of water. Little bit of boating.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819That's the life right there,
david_1_07-11-2025_101839It is.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819especially when you're with family.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Oh, a hundred percent. That's what, that's what makes it great. I. So we, we've got two weeks of information that we could cover, I think interesting to note that the market did, uh, pretty well last week for the fourth, going into the fourth, you know, half day July 3rd market closed July 4th appropriately. So I think it's, I think we should always do July 4th on a Friday. Can you make that happen?
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819That would be sweet. But yeah, so two weeks ago, would've been late June, June 27th.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yep.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819And so that's, we were just breaking to all time highs that day. I think Technic and then Nasdaq had gotten there a little bit before that, but s and p had gotten the new all time highs. And two weeks later, that trend has continued.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah, not a bad thing. And I, I think it makes me think about the phrase all time highs, right? Like when you hear that. I'm sure there's many listeners or investors who would be like, oh man, market's too high all time. High market's too high. It's a bad time to buy. What do you think about that bad time to buy new all time highs?
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819No. I don't agree with that. Say it's confirmation of a the uptrend con most. Well, I don't know if most, a lot of technicians would argue new trends don't start till you get to new highs, which I can, I can somewhat get behind that. I think that's hard off of a v bottom, but like, uh, consolidation,
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yep.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819like, uh, I mean really 2000 s and p didn't get to new highs after 2000 until what, 2016? 2013. Somewhere in there. 2013.
david_1_07-11-2025_10183920 13, 20.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819an argument, right, that the new bull market. We actually didn't get a new bull market until 2013. And I, I mean, a long term perspective, I can buy into that. But I think also, right, so we can extrapolate that down shorter term and I think it fits
david_1_07-11-2025_101839For sure.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Usually beget more new highs is how trend works. This is how the Dow has gone from. 40 to 43,000 the last 120 years.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Well, and the data supports buying new all time highs. And O Peter Malu, hopefully I'm saying his last name correctly, that since 1989 I. Money invested in the s and p 500 when the market is at all time high. Actually outperforms money invested on any other given day. So like one of your returns, if you bought at a new all time high, 13.5% versus any other time, time, 11.8%, three returns, 44 versus 39. Five year returns, 82 versus 74. So the data.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819you just never moved higher, then there'd be no point to invest.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Right. And what's wrong with overwhelming demand That they're willing to buy stocks at prices they haven't before.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819I think you've got to truly mentally buy into that. I do think you've gotta have a pretty solid analysis bone in your body. I.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819I do understand why the average human being hears the word all time highs. Oh my gosh, this has never been higher. Well, I better at least take some profits. Right?
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Right.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819that's, that's, ah, you're thinking about it all wrong. That's not the, that's not how I would phrase it. But on the other hand, you know, if I. You and I didn't have a background in doing this for a living, would I view it the same way? Maybe if I was in a completely different, and if I was a, I don't know, a nurse or a doctor or a teacher, would the phrase all time highs kind of be alarming? I mean, I, yeah, I get it.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah, I, I get why there might be the psychology
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Mm-hmm.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839a uneducated analysis of the market, but anytime that buyers are willing to. Buy stocks at prices that haven't before? Well, markets are a weighing machine, a future discounting mechanism. It's looking six to 18 months in the future. And right now demand indicates that they like stocks. And then you look underneath the surface or maybe even even across the surface, and you look at things like crypto.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Hmm. Yes.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839You wanna talk about that? Should we pause there and talk about some what Crip, what we're seeing in crypto?
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819I think we may, finally have gotten the. Breakout for Bitcoin. Kind of been up here in this 1 0 7, 1 0 8. Think it got up to one 10 ish a couple times. But we are now sitting at one 17 mean really a nice consolidation. when you zoom out and look at the chart. Very, very healthy. We had a big run from, you know, April lows,
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Mm-hmm.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819bottom bottomed around the same time stocks did, uh, early April, April 7th ish, 75, back to one 10 Solidated sideways for two months and a little over two months. not even may. Oh, seven weeks.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah,
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819pretty, pretty nice little consolidation, and one would expect moving in the direction of the previous trend.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839yeah. No, yeah. Consolidation breaking out in the direction of the primary trend. Very technical thing for the Bitcoin market to do. I mean, sitting below 1 0 8 since December of 2024 and now we're sitting at one 17 uptrend confirmed for Bitcoin. Don't know how to make it any more simple than that, and you, you're seeing stocks inch higher. You talked about that. Then we have some metals out there.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Silver. I think silver looks good.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah, silver
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Consolidation a little bit shorter, really, probably just like a month. But big move, silver. Breaking outta that consolidation today. Looks very good,
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Palladium
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819palladium.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839not something we talk about too often, but we have the last few episodes.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Big, big move. Yeah.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839And here we're on the verge of, uh, breaking out of a base that goes back to 2023. So we'll see what that means. When we look broadly, you know, you look at international stocks kind of cooling off on a broad basis, broad relative basis. You know, looking at something like VEU, which is all, you know, all international equities.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Mm-hmm.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Versus s and p pulling back.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Yeah, that, that big, uh, big relative move, Q1 ish. And there's definitely some great charts, definitely some great individual country charts and still are, but broadly hard to. Just like by EFA or A VEU or an EEM just didn't quite get it. Came up to that rate of trend and got rejected like we've done so many times over, I mean, decade plus 15 years.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Mm-hmm.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819And doesn't mean it's the end, right? We'd probably have to get to new relative lows to say that okay, we've got some type of, but it, it will not be happening right now, which is interesting, I would say. So we just got done talking about precious metals
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Mm-hmm.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819and crypto. Crypto wasn't really around in this previous period where. I make my point, but so precious metals, foreign stocks, right? We've talked about that on the podcast very 2008 to 2007 ish. And so the precious metals have kept going. But yeah, to see foreign stocks stall out here is interesting.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Not that every cycle has to be the exact same but. Something I thought might happen if you had told me that silver and gold were still this strong, would've said, okay. I assume EF a's been holding up pretty well there and it really hasn't
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Agreed
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819relative basis.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839on a relative basis.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819On a relative basis,
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Definitely, you know, still in the new, you know, all time highs camp.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819yes. Yes.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839And that's a good thing, like participate.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819very quickly. I mean, EFA was, new all time highs by May 5th and right. We just said earlier in the podcast, s and p didn't get there till what, 27th. So almost eight weeks ahead. So there's still that backdrop that, hey, foreign stocks were the first to get to new all time highs. So you can't really count'em out yet. Maybe they just need some, some time to consolidate up here. Yeah, no, no confirmation yet that we wanna be heavily involved in foreign equities. Right. And that's gonna be tough. We saw, we, uh, have taught growth value
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Right.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819is back in favor of growth. So that's gonna favor us indices and the Nasdaq and s and p, and not things like the DAX and the CAC 40.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah, it's just institutional makeup, right? I mean, you look at Spy G versus Spy V growth versus value going out at highs new all time highs. You look at RPG versus RPV. You know, not necessarily the same look, but confirms that growth is in favor. And you're right. The way these in indices are made up, that's gonna favor a lot of these US indices versus international. International could still participate. And then you add in one of your favorite charts, high beta versus low vol.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819I love all, I mean, confirming all of it, right? That talked about checking the boxes
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yep.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819a couple weeks ago and that was on there and it has just continued to higher.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839And then you look underneath the surface and you say, wow, look at the strength outta tech, US tech. And then you look underneath that surface. And semiconductors are doing well. Ai, financial tech, quantum com computing, metaverse, like these are risk on.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Yes, they are.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839And you, you follow that up with things like Bitcoin and Ripple,
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Even Ethereum's moving higher.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839right?
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Could be, we could have a, another alt season underway
david_1_07-11-2025_101839We could, and triple C,
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819off. That's not risk off.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839it's not, and Triple C credit spreads continue to cool confirming, uh, not a lot of liquidity stress out there. So continuing to stack information that risk and behavior is here and remains. And we talked a couple episodes ago about seasonality from mid-June to mid-July, uh, being pretty good. It wouldn't be surprising to consolidate here from a seasonal perspective. You know, when you look at mid July, end of July into like September, it would not. It would not be surprising to see a little bit increased volatility, some consolidation of this move because it is one of the faster moves from the low and April to where we are now.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819It was quick. Yeah.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839it's, it's one of the, you know, depending on what indices you're looking at I believe s and p 500 speaking the fastest recovery ever recorded of the indices. So it wouldn't, it, it wouldn't be a bad thing if stocks consolidated here. Uh, hold the, hold the all time highs or maybe even like undercut them, consolidate around the previous highs, frustrate the, the herd. That would not be surprising. So tech, tech is working bitcoin, gold, silver, palladium, broadly speaking, international cooling off high beta, doing great versus low vol. What are some sectors that you look at? And it's just like hands off, right? Not all sectors are the same.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819For sure still healthcare staples you can put in there. Although we like to see Staples weak. On a relative basis,
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Right. Yeah. But healthcare is pretty, pretty abysmal. I mean, when you look across the spectrum there, especially among the top 10 stocks in that sector, it is not a pretty site.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819It's not
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Hands off.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819now, and it doesn't look bad, but one I'm waiting on to just do something. There's banks. I want banks to do stuff. Not that they have, right? I mean, we just, we just spent time talking about confirmation and growth. So the big banks are good, big banks look fine. JP Morgan actually finally, finally, after 37 years, 37 years, my entire life. Broke out of this relative base.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah, going back.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819see, you know, now it's, it's got a stick. We'll see. We will see. But I mean, at least they a bright spot for JP Morgan. Hopefully that follows through to the, the, the regionals, the big banks are. They seem fine.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Well in your top performing sectors for the year, you know, year to date, industrials, tech, utilities, that's an interesting one. Communication services,
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Comm
david_1_07-11-2025_101839mean, those are.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Yep.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839I mean, that's not exactly a,
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819games falls under that. I think so. I'm sure that helps. I mean, plus you got like two. Mag seven stops.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839mm-hmm. Well, and what's, what I do find interesting that's developing today for communication services is you look at XLC versus s and p and it's better
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Are we finally getting a break out?
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Oh, opposite. So this consolidation that's, that's going on since February. Now the, the day's not over the week. It's not over, you know, we still have quite a, a few hours here before close for Friday, July 11th, and it could reclaim and hold that lower boundary that's developed since the beginning of February. So it's a nice consolidation, but if it breaks to the downside, that might be information worth paying attention to. That may be comm services are out of favor for the summer. See?
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Silver and gold improving. Might, might have a fail breakdown there.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Mm-hmm.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Yeah, maybe. It's interesting. It's interesting, right, because then we just talked about, I. Growth. So I would've expected, if you told me XLC was finally getting outta that consolidation, I would've assumed it was to the upside.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Right.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819That's why you take each chart on its own merit.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839For sure. Well, and you've got the relationship of tech versus comm services. You look at XLK versus XLC and we're, we're back to an important area of polarity that goes back to summer of 2022. So we'll see if that's some type of false breakdown or, uh, maybe this is an area where. It's a false breakdown of XLC versus s and p. Only time will tell, but that's why you look at charts. Take each chart on its own merit, like you said, and I think it's appropriate to highlight the support of this podcast at this time. The adaptive select ETF, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Using proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle ad pvs distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. And what I, what I find interesting about that particular product is its universe is the Russell 1000, and we just had a reconstitution here, didn't we, of
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819had a reconstitution.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839the Russell 1000.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Oh yeah, the Russell 1000, all the Russell indices, always happens June halfway through the year, although moving to two reconstitutions next year,
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah, changing,
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819in 2026.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839changing their methodology, but added, uh, 36 or 37 stocks here, depending on where you look. Not all of'em are, are graduates from the Russell 2000. Some of'em are straight up ads. Uh, some of'em are IPOs. Uh, but you know, it's an important thing to pay attention to when they add or subtract, graduate or demote in using their terms. Things like in the Russell 1000, Russell 2000, even s and p 500. Important to pay attention
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Can
david_1_07-11-2025_101839to see what those.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819from the Russell 1000?
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah, you can graduate, go to s and p 500.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Is
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Well, you, well, technically you could be in both, right? You could be in the Russell 1000 and s and P, so I don't know if it'd be like
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819I like, I like the Russell 1000.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839it is.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Pretty straightforward.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Mm-hmm. But you know, we saw things like Rocket Lab tapestry, Dutch Bros. Toast Ro Rubrik, MSTR. Micro Strategies. Interesting. You know, there's a lot, Dell, there's an old name. If you, I, I, I would've lost that bet, you know, not knowing each, uh, stock by heart. That's in the Russell 1000, that Dell wasn't already in there.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819Yeah.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Wouldn't have guessed that, but an exciting new universe and methodology that they're going to a twice a year reconstitution rather than once a year. I think that's pretty cool. What else, Ian, what else would you like to cover for our listeners? Uh, worth highlighting for market developments over that past two weeks.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819I don't know. I mean, I, I think the back, the boxes remain checked. And I would assume barring some type of outperformance from the Russell of 2000, I assume breadth probably starts to wane off a little bit, even if, even if the market goes higher. So, you know, take that as where you see, I think we've reached some. Some intermediate term highs in participation. Kind of when you get up above like the 80% of stocks above a 200 day
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Mm-hmm.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819now, it's a great breadth, rusty kind of confirmation, but, and the markets do typically go higher. But you definitely see that number start to. Dwindle a little bit.
david_1_07-11-2025_101839Yeah, which would, which would match the, the seasonal period that we're heading into mid, mid-July through September. You know. Indices finally got back to being, you know, positive on the year. New highs would not surprise me one bit. You know, what you were just talking about for breath to cool off, for us to have a consolidation in a choppy summer, that would not be surprising by, by any means. So with that, we appreciate everybody listening. Ian, great to be back on here with you after, uh, a week off. And for, you know, for those listening, you know, share, share us with your family and friends give us a high ranking on your platform of choice. That means a lot to us, and we will do it again next week.
ian_1_07-11-2025_111819have a great weekend everyone.