The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 263: One Foot Out The Door?
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In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the reduction in Breadth, recent moves in AAPL and LLY, continued performance of momentum, continued bearish sentiment, and what is going on with precious metals.
Welcome back to The Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, August 8th, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 63 77. I'm David Za. I'm here with Ian Don IUs in the morning. McMillan, do you remember Don IUs?
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Oh man, I was raised on Don Imus.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah, I mean, I don't know if that's, maybe I shouldn't say that out loud. I'm sure there's like mixed feelings on Don Imus us. But yeah, my dad listened to like all four hours of that every single day.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Wait, is Don IMOs controversial?
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Well, I mean, he had the like, you know, the Rutgers basketball team comment. No, I mean, I think that, I mean, Don was pretty, I would say rough around the edges. Like I was, I feel like he was assertive before, like being assertive was common,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Got it.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209whereas like now. Probably a lot of people, more people in the spotlight have a Don IUs type attitude. I know I always liked him. I didn't really understand a lot of the things that his guests were talking about, like world events.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Put your pops headed on.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209oh yeah, every morning on the radio and then he was also on tv.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209I didn't realize that.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209What
david_1_08-08-2025_102209didn't realize that
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209I'm trying to
david_1_08-08-2025_102209radio, I didn't realize he was on there, was IUs in the morning until January of 2018. I did not know that I would lost that
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah, he passed away. I'm trying to when he passed away,
david_1_08-08-2025_1022092019.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209The ra like, it kind of died down, but like when he was at his peak man. Because I think he may or may not, I don't know enough about the New York City scene, but I think him and Stern competed for listeners.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Oh, okay. Okay. Okay. I mean, that would make sense.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209And they're kind of rivals maybe. That was always the sense I got someone. If I'm totally wrong about that, someone can feel free to DM me and tell me I'm wrong. But I always like him. He did a lot. He did a lot for charity. He's a pretty good dude in my eyes,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah. Yeah.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209I guess.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209I vaguely remember him, but I think Howard Stern just lost his show, didn't he?
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Ooh, that's what I hear now that,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209But I thought his show was garbage. I mean, obviously he was very.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209not my cup of tea. I think that was a little bit more like, shock jock,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Oh yeah. Shock jock. Pretty raunchy.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209where I'd say like Imus actually had people on. You know, and their respected fields talking about real, like modern day issues,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209sports,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209that's fair.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209whatever it was.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah, this was the, they were the podcasters before. Before there was podcasting. They just did it on fm. I don't even know if my kids know what FM or AM is.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Mine won't, I mean, there's, don't, we don't ever listen to the radio in the car.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209straight to the Spotify.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Straight to the weekly trend.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yep.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Sit down, kids, you, we gotta talk stocks. Speaking of that, maybe we should do that.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209We should probably do that. Our listeners don't want to hear our thoughts on
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Shock jocks.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209So was that it? Was that it that last week? Last week? Was that it for seasonality? Is that, is it? Is August volatility over after this week? I mean, we rounded pretty hard here.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209it. Yeah, I doubt it. Yeah, I just I mean, we've gotten back a lot of that, right? It was a pretty good week overall, least for the major indices. I dunno what
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah, I think being able to rebound as well as it did after last week is pretty good, but I, that overhead resistance is still sitting there. I mean, it. You know, use something like the s and p, but there's other developments. You know, you look at like Nasdaq 100 versus the s and p going out at New Weekly, all time closing highs. It's pretty risk on,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209I don't know that.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209We know, right? We know the ripple effects of Nasdaq being outperformer. So probably not bad for the s and p either. I'd say when I go through charts, I still, there's probably not a word for this now, people will say, oh yeah, well, breath is getting worse. And that is true. And I'm not saying breath isn't getting worse, but you can also tell. Maybe it's just'cause we match more stuff like intraday or the handful of stuff that I do watch intraday, not necessarily the candle by candle, not have like five minute candles up or anything, but just the price prices themselves feels continues to feel lethargic. Lot of charts I feel like are continuing to kind of start puttering like they want to roll over Now. We haven't really got, or at least we haven't got, you know, as a whole, not a big rollover yet. No big whoosh from the market. Unless you wanna call la What was that last Friday? We recovered most of that.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209There's nothing, you know, like there's multiple ways to view that, right? Is it lethargic? Is it digestive? Is it. A reset because I mean, really when you see like percentage of stocks above a 200 day moving average, like if you're looking at a breath metric like that you see in the eighties or nineties,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209yeah.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209It moves somewhat like an oscillator, right? That's a mean reverting tool, the 200 day moving average. And so another way to look at it is, are we getting some type of breath reset? Time will tell. I mean. It would be perfectly normal if stocks were lethargic August and September and we get a breath reset for the final run, you know, starting in October that would fit the seasonality we've seen historically speaking since the fifties wouldn't really be all that big of a surprise, but we, I mean, pretty strong move since the Liberation Day tariff tantrums. By a lot of stocks and the fact that they would cool off here, I think pretty healthy. And when you talk about not a lot of rollover, I think maybe one exception to that is Eli Lilly, you know, Eli Lilly.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209kind of the, one of the fewer remaining strongholds in healthcare. Of course, you always got your Boston scientifics and things like that to do pretty well. It's probably got more of a tech tilt to it though. but Lily, yeah. Hopefully not joining It's friend, UNH. So the downside, good continuation of data, not a good look, weakness for the healthcare sector. Of course, Dave, I think your argument would be there's, right, you shouldn't have been owning any of this before. You shouldn't have been owning any healthcare anyways.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Right? Yep. We've been in a relative downtrend in healthcare for a while now. You brought up United Healthcare. We also had Pfizer Moderna, lots of names that were in Downtrends in relative Downtrends. And here's Eli Lilly matching that, and that's gonna hurt the Dow Jones. You know, the do. Jones still hasn't made new highs. Lily's a big part of that, so we'll see. I mean, I think we're still in the window of seasonal weakness for the next two months, and the way to use that information is just because that's what's historically happened. If the opposite happens, if we're still strong or consolidating sideways. Next two months. That's tremendous information on how strong the back half of the year could be.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Well, and so what if consolidate and then gets strong again?
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah. Yes. Yeah. Gonna be really, because Apple's been what,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209A
david_1_08-08-2025_102209out
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209of a laggard and at the same price levels. It was back in. 2021. So you're talking four years sideways. Barely anybody talks about it anymore from the standpoint of a stock
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah, lots of lots of negativity around Apple these days, you know, from the internet, from random people on the internet, so it could be time.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209could be, and if Apple gets going, gonna be really hard to pull down. Indices. I mean, that's just math, right? The big get bigger.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Well, and if you look at I was perusing this morning, right? So on the flip side, we've had Microsoft that's carried us for a while.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yep.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209it's just carried us, but the other kind of big stock. In the s and p and it has been an outperformer while Apple is underperformed, but if you look at the Microsoft relative chart,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Little false breakout there.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209in, it's running into some resistance. So could you see those two swap?
david_1_08-08-2025_102209spot. Yeah. Switch spots. That's fair.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209as who's gonna outperform over the next, I mean, really you could have Apple outperform into the end of the year and it would. It make total sense.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah, I would definitely carry the bucket for Microsoft that Microsoft cools off here. So on the one hand you have something like Microsoft cooling off you. I Lilly rolling over on the flip side, you got Apple participating. The momentum factor still alive and well, like when you look across different momentum funds and that's why I probably should highlight the supporter of this podcast. The Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV. Which helps investors access to the most T factors in markets momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short term treasury bills and cash during long term market Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in ad PV by visiting ad pv etf.com. Calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC, and it's not just a DPV that's doing well from a momentum perspective. There's other momentum funds too. The momentum factors doing well, whether you're looking internationally, whether you're looking US momentum's alive and well.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209That risk off. I agree with you. I guess part of me is like, you know, when people tell me momentum's doing good, say, okay, well that definitely makes sense. But I agree and Right. It's been the same stuff I was talking to a friend the other day. I mean, it's been the same s stuff for nine, 10 years now. It's still growth tech. Nasda now we're kind of into the semiconductor's still pretty hot, but now we're in this like AI and a lot of this like aerospace and defense, which is really turning out to be more like space exploration type themes.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209and I would even throw telecom, telecom in there.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209maybe that's the better. Like you see like an XTL, which was what communications services used to be called. And then I forget what year they changed the telecom sector to communication services. Which was fair. I mean, I think it made sense.
david_1_08-08-2025_1022092018.
ian_1_08-08-2025_1122092018. Okay. And telecom really is, that was always like the classic like. Verizon t Ericsson, you know, like late nineties, two thousands, cellular telecom. But now telecom's back and yet it's like all this satellite cool stuff outperforming now makes sense. I mean, right. I think capital naturally flows towards growth in any type of investing and all of the offshoots of that typically gonna be your most gr, most growthy area. is it shocking that tech has outperformed for a decade? Probably, you know, probably not. It means we're probably innovating.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Well, and it go, it goes back to indices, makeup, right? We've talked several times on here about us indices being tilted towards tech, international indices tilted towards value and finance. And then you look back historically on market tops, like major market tops. I'm talking about tops that happen where you have a 50 some percent correction and it's, those leaders then become the leaders to the downside. And we're not seeing that. We're just not seeing, you know, NASDAQ 100 going out to new relative all time high with s and p. That's not top behavior. Whereas financials and energy were the last market cycle going into oh six to oh eight. Financials and energy were the largest sectors. It wasn't tech. And that market correction happened and financials stopped participating about in oh six. And that wouldn't, you know, it the, it's the large sector that pulled the market down. I mean, from. You know, oh six, even in the beginning of oh seven, financials rolled over and that was that. And so my point being, if we're gonna get a major cycle top, it's gonna be when tech starts to roll over on a relative basis and stop leading.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Well, and even, you know, more recently, so I think about COVID XLKL performs, they ran to tech and COVID ended up being a nothing burger. And then 2022 they act, they actually got tech to underperform and we did get a multi-month downtrend. So, yeah, I'm with you. You gotta have the leaders. And is that, you know, if I look at an XLK versus s and p chart, do I put that in the lethargic category? I mean. Kinda
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Wait which chart?
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209XLK versus SPX.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Oh, okay. You're just saying that this consolidation.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Well, I mean, we're in, we're right now, we're right into the 1999, 2000 relative highs.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Oof.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Now we did create that false breakdown in March and April in that relationship. And so you wonder if it's gonna push through. You wonder if the shorts have to keep covering. And that's another thing is like last, we have one down week last week, and the put call ratio jumps, the VIX jumps premiums jump. You get a A i I bears now exceeding bulls on the most recent survey. I mean one week. You got. So it continues to be that one foot out the door market where people are just ready.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209VIX went from 14 to 22 in like two days last week. And yeah, it's, we get these like little mini resets. Sometimes I wonder if that's all. Well, I mean, we just had 2022, but sometimes I do wonder if that's just what we get is V bottoms instead
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Well could be,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209multi-month
david_1_08-08-2025_10220920. 2022 was a multi-month,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209It was.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209the bottoming process was a multi-month. So yeah, there's gonna be v bottoms, there's still gonna be more protracted corrections. And it's really, if you get an, if you get another week like we had last week and the put call ratio doesn't jump, or the VIX doesn't jump, you know, premiums don't get expensive. Like, that's when you sit up and take notice and be like, oh, they're not willing to hedge anymore. They don't have one foot out the door anymore. That's when topping starts to happen. Otherwise all this hedging does is end up being future buying fuel when price moves against them.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209And I think it's, I think it's hilarious too that like the expert, you know, bank analysts revise their end of year s and p target again. They all went, ran for the exits during the COVID, or not the COVID the tariff announcements. Everybody downward revised. And then now we're back to the original, what we said at the beginning of the year. It goes back to like, predictions don't matter like you got, you just have to have a plan. And right now with an uptrend on our hands, being above a 200 day being above prior highs, the trend is intact. Will it stay intact? I have no idea. You know, could, is there a scenario where something like the s and p 500 goes and tests its prior high or goes and tests the 200 day moving average three or 5% away? Absolutely. That wouldn't necessarily break the trend though.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209I ain't trying to do all that. We don't need to be testing 200 days, maybe 61 50.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Well, I think a fair amount of stocks are doing that currently, though, like we've seen the percentage of stocks above a 200 day and something like the s and p 500 is, you know, there's quite a few stocks now that are near their 200 day, and I think it's interesting that if you actually do the work and look through all the stocks, a lot of those 200 day moving averages are rising, that they're testing are just underneath. There's a possibility here that this breath reset. You see all these stocks respond to their 200 day and move higher. Time will tell. But we still have, you know, if you've got Apple doing well, semiconductors doing well, queues out to new highs versus s and p. You got sentiment that's negative. You have at the same time, you got risk taking like pot stocks now like they're buying pot stocks.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209psychedelics.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209I mean, if that doesn't say risk on.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah, it's, I mean, like if you use a YOLO when you're, break a rate of trend kind of, you're above a two on your day now. It's done this before, so.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Before we hopped on here, we were talking about international, you know, the Nikai 2, 2, 5, new all time weekly closing high this week, possibly, you know, the first time since 1989 you got European financials. You talked about a different bunch of international areas that are that. I think you had some pretty good analysis on. You wanna talk about that as far as their relative 200 days or their 200 day moving averages, because international stocks did cool off here for the past few months, but there's some areas that held up well during.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Austria Greece and Vietnam. Those are gone. I mean, I think those are, I know you hop, how you hop on those, but Italy did a little bit better. But for sure Spain, Austria, Greece,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209even your even European financials as a whole.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah. European Financial, South Korea held up well. I haven't checked in on Argentina. Argentina is, I mean, it was pretty far ahead though. it's not very close to what's relative to on your day, but that makes more sense. I also understand that's not Europe, but that's still probably the best one out there. I mean, I think it's kind of the best one was, might need some work now though.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209But you have something like the Global 100, right? Which holds the largest 100 stocks both. US and international almost breaking out on a relative basis. So there's, you can see the information piling up that even if we get some consolidation here the next two months, using more domestic myopic measurements, that you could see a return to international next two months. You could see a return to Apple the next two months to hold these markets up. Pretty good information, I would say
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah. There's nothing yet that tells me we're going into a five, 10% correction.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209right and breath can be weak. It, you know, it,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209We just had a,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209we did.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209I mean, that's what, oh, we don't get a bear. Well, we just had a bear market in 2022. People say we don't get these things. People like to claim. We don't get volatility, but we do.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Right. Well, and even the correction that took place from January through the middle of April, intraweek intraday, that was 21%. From the end of January into.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209I mean, you get like this stuff. We got 20, we just had a 20% correction. I don't know what the data is. You know, I guess I could call up Brian Dietrich and ask him to run it, but I mean, what are the chances after getting a 20% correction and you're not in a bear? We are not in a bear market. It's not like we, there's a 2022 where you have now possibility for a bear market, kind of like a relief rally, and then you roll over again. But you, correction, let's say a 15% correction, how often three months later are you getting another 10% plus correction or 5% plus correction? I bet that's pretty rare.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah. I don't know, but I do know Dietrich put out some information on. Like the, what we've seen the last few months out of semiconductors that when we see this type of performance, I mean, it bodes well for semiconductors overall and if semiconductors are gonna continue to lead, I don't know. I don't know how you can get overly bearish and Yes I go back to does do the next two months have volatility.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Probably.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209bull market probably, and that's okay. It's okay to have some of these metrics reset before we move higher. I mean, we should be some somewhat appreciative of, we don't, we didn't have a bullish percent that was sitting in the eighties and then flipped to os,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209that was sitting, that was sitting lower. Same with stocks above a 200 day moving average. Yes, it was divergent going into these levels. Yes, we could see lower stock prices to match some of that divergence, but from a breath health standpoint, pretty normal.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Agreed. So you just gotta sit through it. It's probably gonna be weird. Probably gonna be wonky. We're above 61 50, we're above an upward slipping, 200 day moving average. So you have those tailwinds, right? So you've gotta err on the side that anything weird that happens eventually resolve itself to the upside.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209And if it doesn't do. That's information, right? If we get a consolidation that has borders to it, meaning there's a range that builds out that if we don't hold that range, okay, that's information. You know that when a consolidation in an uptrend doesn't break to the upside, that's information. It's like literally Eli Lilly had a consolidation in an uptrend broke to the downside. That's information that stock is broken for the time being. Does it turn into a false breakdown? I have no idea. It's information that you have to be open-minded about and a little breath reset sideways move in markets to digest. This move perfectly normal. Helps us get through the Little League World Series and the final run in Major League Baseball and gets us to football.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Well my, I'm done with baseball for the year, major League baseball.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209You're done,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah, I'm done.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209so you're buying your time. You're waiting for the
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209I'm
david_1_08-08-2025_102209opening.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209mental energy for college football. I cannot waste it on the Braves anymore. This season is done. We got 49 games left. I think I read that today. 49 games left.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209I am not out. Brewers are still in it, man, and they've been hot. Hot again, uptrend. Wouldn't mind if they consolidate a little bit. Brewer fans get all nervous, but they've been unreal.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Real nice of you.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Real nice of
david_1_08-08-2025_102209you're welcome.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209talk like that.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209You're welcome. I could send you text. I could send you text updates,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209baseball team. Oh yeah, they're hot. Your trophy wife at the cocktail party.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209yeah.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Oh yeah, she is. She's hot. We know. We saw,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209So I'll send you text updates on how the brewers are doing. You can, that way you just know what's going on until football starts.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Are you guys like, what do the betting odds say? Are you favored? a pennant
david_1_08-08-2025_102209We are not favored. Yeah, one, one of, one of the ma major market teams is favored for the World Series, but the brewers are right up there now. But I mean, the game's gotta be played. You gotta get into the postseason, you gotta, there's a lot of baseball left. A lot can happen in four, nine games. Been there before.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Do you feel that? Mid small and mid-size markets like to always mention that about larger markets. Oh, well, yeah. You know, they got those large market teams favored to win. You know those
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Well, well, wouldn't it make sense? I mean, that's your, well, no, it's more like large cap, small cap. I mean, it would make sense
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209you. If you think about setting gambling lines, there's a lot more money coming out of a large market area to bet on their team.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209You know, there's more people betting in LA for their team than there is Milwaukee. So it makes sense. It makes, you know, it makes sense from a supply and demand that your line's gonna be higher for that, that LA team makes sense.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209I think they can do
david_1_08-08-2025_102209I don't like it when the major markets get to play in the World Series.'cause I, I feel like that's what Major League Baseball wants.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Do you think Atlanta's, is Atlanta considered a major market? It's gotta be right?
david_1_08-08-2025_102209I don't know. That's a great question. I,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Is.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209that's a tweener. It's a mid cap.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Because it's not an obvious, it's not a Boston and New York and la
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah, I guess I would put it maybe in the same line as San Diego, like,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209okay.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Atlanta, San Diego, Miami ish. I mean, you guys, Atlanta did spend way more money than Milwaukee, but from a like metro area I'm well. Should I use the Internets? I just think it's nice once in a while when your favorite team does well, Ian, so there's 6%,
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209We got
david_1_08-08-2025_1022096.3.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209This is it for the Braves, and we have to burn it down and start over. We did get one World Series out of it, so.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209So Milwaukee Metro is 1.5 million. Atlanta Metro is 6.5 million. San Diego Metro 3.2 Wouldn't have guessed that Los Angeles has gotta be bonkers. Los Angeles. 13 million. So I like it when the underdogs play well, man. Especially when it's my underdog.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Who doesn't live an underdog?
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah, exactly. Well, anything else, Ian, I appreciate you being on here again with me. Anything else you wanna highlight for our listeners before we.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209No, just trend remains up. Gold. We didn't really talk about gold, did we? No. Yeah, I think it looks good. I think it held up really nicely. Same with gold miners. And right, and then we have the dollar back to rolling over. Went up to a hun or Dixie, went up to a hundred, got rejected. So we kind of have that tailwind again. I would say miners over gold, Because if we're gonna do this, then the higher beta, piece is probably gonna win out. But yeah. And then silver miners, like silver,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209silver miners breaking out to 12 year highs this week. I mean, some legit stuff continues to happen in precious metals, so we'll see.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209And the dollar can't stay above 99. I mean, you make a good, great point. I mean, if silver's gonna outperform gold, if gold miners are gonna outperform gold, that's nothing but quality characteristics for precious metals overall. Great point.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Keep that on your
david_1_08-08-2025_102209And we didn't talk.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah. Gold's been hot. I'm not sitting here saying anything in August 8th, you know, about like, wow, look at gold. But you know, part of that's also the relative relationship and the relative relationship over the last couple months with the big rallying stocks you know, brought that down to a pretty attractive level. Yeah, it's likely when we just got the first big push earlier this year. And so it took a break and do we get another leg higher? I think that this past week was a spot to throw some sheckles at that. If you do think that there is another another run higher over the next few months.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah, quality things that are out of precious metals and risk on areas of the market, international, domestic, some breath reset happening here. Things remain healthy. Doesn't mean we don't get a corrective market the next two months, but it is very telling how
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Hard to
david_1_08-08-2025_102209a lot of it
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209We talked about that. How 18 in the last 19 sessions of opened hire.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah. And it's hard to get in. Right? They gap it up and if they sell it from that point, that means you gotta sit overnight.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209it off and then
david_1_08-08-2025_102209That means you're sitting overnight with a negative position. It's difficult and you got, you just have one foot out the door by these investors buying, puts, hedging bear surveys high till we see that type of stuff.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209That amazes me that we are. Bearish.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209even have you even have, you have head headlines like Moody's is warning of a recession. I mean, and that how many times do we see him wrong?
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209but I'm pretty sure we're pretty, like, we're not that close to recession. I mean, didn't we just have like 3% GDP?
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yeah. And I, well, and it'll be a revised a year later.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Yeah. It'll be revised.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Price. Price moves first. It's kinda like we had positive GDP numbers during the 2223 correction. You get into 24 and all of a sudden they were revising the GDP numbers for 22 and 23 downward into recession territory. So yeah, we had a recession, but the market was already pricing it in. Markets are future discounting mechanism.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209why can't you just avoid it? Like just do the trend, man. Just do the
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yep.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209They'll tell you whether you should be in or not.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Correct. The market knows more than you, me and our listeners. It's a hard truth.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209best thing I ever did was just relent to the trend.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Yep. Let the trend be your friend.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209I got better things to do than try to figure out GDP or if we're
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Figure out
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209recession or not,
david_1_08-08-2025_102209manipulated labor statistics.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209going into football season. I do not have time to worry about macroeconomics.
david_1_08-08-2025_102209Right. Well, good stuff, Ian. Appreciate it. We thank everybody for listening. Make sure you share this with your friends. Give us a high ranking on your platform of choice that helps us get the word out and is a compliment to us and we appreciate it.
ian_1_08-08-2025_112209Have a great weekend.