The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 265: Climbing the Rope
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In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the fear in the market going into today's large move to the upside. They also discuss the things confirming the thesis that the market will continue to move higher, how small caps are potentially bottoming on a relative basis versus large caps, and international areas of the market starting to show signs of relative strength again.
Welcome back to The Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, August 22nd, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 64 76. I'm David Darling. I'm here with football this weekend. Ian McMillan, is that what you got planned for the weekend?
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650What yeah, I definitely got football planned. I mean, it is, it's getting antsy in the McMillan household ready for football. We'll be in Atlanta and like nine days to watch the Gamecocks kickoff. I'm excited. Lots of lots of documentaries out right now.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Okay.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Because you had like all the Netflix stuff, right? The quarterback,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yep.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650you had the SEC special. There's documentary on the Chiefs on I think it's on Disney
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Okay. I didn't know. I didn't know about that one.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650yeah, so they
david_1_08-22-2025_103649S sec.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650creators know how to get excited for football.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah. Is is SEC one? Good. I haven't watched that one.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650SEC one's good. I think South Carolina, I'm biased. I think South Carolina comes off looking pretty good. Yeah, definitely. Ready? You said, what did you say s and p was at I
david_1_08-22-2025_10364964, 76 or 75. One of the two
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Oh,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649looking at. I'm looking at it live.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650last Friday.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah. Nothing happened. Nothing happened.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650happens, right?
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649nothing like, nothing like a couple down days to get one foot out the door and get the put get put call ratio jumped and
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650I just, it is so easy to get the masses riled up.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649well.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650have days like today where it all, you know. All of that then gets wiped out to the upside
david_1_08-22-2025_103649When we're at, the, the reading for a a i I survey for bears, like 45% bears.
ian_1_08-22-2025_11365045%. And we're in the midst of what year? Three of a bull market we already had. The s and p had what, 10, 15% correction four months ago. So I, I hear, I mean, oh my gosh, you wouldn't believe even from friends Dave, when are, when is this, is the market actually gonna sell off it just goes up, yada, yada. that so could not be further from the truth.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Well, yeah. We've got, like you mentioned, the the tariff tantrum piece. That was a 20% move February to April. You were just coming off of 22, 23. Right.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah.
david_1_08-22-2025_10364922, 23, we had a a 25% correction that took about 11 months. I mean, you didn't reach new all time highs until January of 24.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650I like how you said 2023 because if you use the s and p, yeah, we had October, 2022 as a bottom, but if you use. A lot of other indices. I mean, you use Russell, October, 2023. We went back and visited the same area a year later,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Right.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650we finally got the push higher.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Well, and we're, we're still at, even with today's move in Russell, we're not at new all time highs for Russell 2000. We're still at the same price we were in March of 2021. You look at equal weight, Russell 1000, you're only talking about a 3%, or I'm sorry, a 7% return since December of 2021, equal eight s and P 500. Finally making a new all time high.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Dow finally making an all time high.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650you're getting confirmation that stocks wanna go higher. What I think, right? I mean, we hear about all this, oh, NASDAQ and s and P, and it's like, well now, mean equal weight of all of it. Equal weight S and P, and this has gotta stick, but equal way. S and Ps, I think the biggest. Thing people should be paying attention to.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Oh yeah. I mean that's a, that's a broadening out and I, I think, I think you brought up an important caveat, right? We're a few hours from close. If we don't hold this move on Friday, August 22nd, 2025, and we. Sell off by the close, well then that's a different story. But all we have is the price that's in front of us and that's what matters most. And if we hold this into close, like you said, you're getting confirmation all over the place, equal eight s and p Dow Jones, I mean, shoot even micro caps.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650You literally took the words outta my mouth of 4% today.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649I mean it's not,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650microcaps. those all time? No,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649it's not.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650all time, but they're year to date highs.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah. Year to date highs well, and they're three year highs. Three and a half year highs.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650into that range from 2021. I mean, this is, and to your point, there is so much fear going into today. It wasn't, it was a newsy where did they meet? The Wyoming thing?
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Jackson Hole.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Jackson Hole. Oh, what's, I don't, I don't. I don't know. The trend was still fine, right? I mean, if you talk to a technician, the trend was still fine today. Yeah, we'd have been a rough week, a rough couple weeks for some certain individual stocks, but you got a lot of upward sloping moving averages, including the 200 a day. I don't know.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649I, even the Russell 3000, like broadening out or, you look at the NYA New York composite making new highs and
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650all time highs for the Russell 1000. If you look at IWB now, we gotta
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yep.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650but I.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, it's, it's a lot of confirmation if this holds. We can't complain. Just enjoy the uptrend happening during a, during a seasonally week period. Notoriously now we still have September to go last. We have next week to go. But a lot of things confirming
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650And maybe we don't get right. Seasonality is just an average.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649yes.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650It's just an average. And we can have a pretty low volatility. I mean, for what? Is expected, like you said, you look, really August through September. But yeah, maybe we buck that and again, yeah, we're still, we still have five weeks to go. Really? I mean, really, you could even say October. The seasonality is a little sketchy.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Mid into mid October for sure, and I, I just find it interesting to see. Small caps potentially bottoming here against large caps
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Hmm.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649on a relative basis, considering the sentiment behind it all. I mean, first of all, you have overall sentiment for stocks in general, right? You have a a put call ratio that jumped especially at the index, index level, you had more bears than bulls on surveys. And then you add on the layer of small caps and like in the, in that A A I I survey, what stocks are you favoring right now? Small caps least favor. And we've covered ad nauseum, the outflows from
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650week, isn't there a record short in
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yes.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650which I get right, because is. And I kind of brought this up to JC a few weeks ago. On their show, they say, oh, people keep showing biotech. Well, if you're, I mean, there's hundreds of billions of dollars in long short funds, people that have to be net neutral. Like I get why people continue to pound the short short na, or short Russell theme. But yeah, if that unloads or that reverses, boy, howdy.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, you got a, you have a scenario on your hands for short squeeze, and that's how it works, right? If, if, again, I'll reiterate, you should get nervous when you have moves, 2, 3, 4, 5% where no one hedges, like you don't see a jump in the put call. You don't see a jump in premiums for options. That's when you say, okay, because all, all the shorting is, is future buying, right?'cause people eventually have to close those. And the way you have to close'em is you gotta buy stocks. And we, before, before we pivot onto international stocks, I do wanna highlight. Support of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength through proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends. Investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. So we talked about a lot of the major indices. I think it's also fair to say, considering the sport of this pod podcast, momentum still has a grip still in an uptrends as a factor. Momentum's still alive and well. And that's a, that's a risk on factor. But even internationally speaking, it had a strong start to the year international and then kind of petered off the last few months. Here, based on, on the work done internally, and you, and you saw it too, you rolled through a lot of charts. There's a lot to like going on, setting back up for international for the second half of the year.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah, and it's I like that aspect of the workbooks. Obviously foreign is kind of its own thing but you know, like I told you and Kevin yesterday went through, can tell you, I mean the whole, the whole ETF universe just started at the very top and scanned it down as to what's working, what you should be paying attention to. Particularly on a relative basis. Right. That's it's so important. Think it gets talked enough about, maybe we don't talk enough
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, let's talk about it. Let's talk about this relative.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650strength is so. Important. Yes. Being in an uptrend on an absolute basis, you wanna, you wanna pull up your charting platform and you wanna see the chart going from lower left to upper right, upper right, that is important. But we ha relative strength, relative behavior is, it's all great tweet last week and they, they use it much shorter relative strength than we do. But they were talking about how. They actually look at their, the relative chart first before even bothering on whether they're gonna pay attention to the absolute chart. And I think that that is great. I mean, I don't, I don't look at anything if it's not above a relative 200, like that's the minimum. We want to own things that are outperforming a benchmark that
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah. And that it's, it's an opportunity cost, right? Every, every dollar that's being invested, you have choices. That dollar can go anywhere. You could just leave it, you could put underneath the mattress, and then you've got a bajillion other things that you could put it in. And how do you, what's your process for identifying. Because like you said, you could buy an absolute uptrend,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649but if you buy a relative uptrend, even better.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650the s and p right now, like at this day, and I think Dave, so right, he always calls it the, the golden age of investing. I think that the golden age of investing will only continue to get more and more frictionless. But yeah, you can essentially go buy the s and p for free now, four basis points, three basis points, whatever Vanguard and state Street are charging, right? So you can own the s and p for free. So if that is your baseline and for the business we're in, that's really right. That's a, that's an alternative, that's a realistic alternative for our clients. They don't have to pay us percentage. They can turn around and go, just buy the essence. So what are you gonna do that's better than the essence? You have to be better than that for that risk tolerance. Obviously not all clients are a hundred percent in equities, for that risk tolerance, plus a fee, to be better than the s and p,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, you gotta provide value.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650and that is where relative strength. Comes in the factory, you gotta, you cannot, you cannot beat the benchmark if you don't own things that are beating the benchmark. It's mathematically impossible.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649So true, so simple. So true.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650And so, yeah, you gotta bear those down and back to Dave's, our original point that I feel like is setting up again for international. Now they're underperforming a little bit today, but. I think it's when I see it and there's some international that's done better than others. Some that has held up really well.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649And the fact that European financials can con, con continue to be bought hand over fist.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650I didn't stop. Right. And that's another thing. So we talk about route of strength, not just on a chart, but I don't have to look at a chart to know. Well, the s and p kind of got whack this week, and this stock, or this ETF was either sideways or up. That in itself is relative strength. And you saw that a lot out of foreign,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yep.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650particularly. Yeah, I mean, European financials, Hmm.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Do you, do you know where the idiom, handover fist comes from? Like what that
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650I do
david_1_08-22-2025_103649tobacco, I had to look it up myself.'cause I, I just said it. I'm like, well, wait a minute. What does that actually mean? Well, I mean it, I know it means at a rapid rate, but it comes back from nautical handover, hand describing sailors climbing a rope.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Wow.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649So European financials, they climb in that rope. I mean, you look underneath the hood,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650row.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649you look at that, you know what's underneath the hood? H-S-B-C-U-B-S, Allianz. Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Can you imagine that?
david_1_08-22-2025_103649GLE, society General, a CA. Like all these names, credit Agricole, they, they're, they're getting bought.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Deutsche Bank up 396% since October, 2022.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649So is the world coming to an end if we're buying European financials?
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650No.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Probably. Probably not.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650And we joke about yesterday, I love, I love the idea of American exceptionalism in the stock market.'cause that's what it has been for 14, 15 years.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, it's where we live. It's fun.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650But if I gotta go buy Italy, I gotta go buy European banks.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650what the chart says.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Well, Ann. Like I think you brought up during some of our market calls, just like though there will be a decade or something like it in the coming years where international outperforms, and that's differentiation you want and it's just unique, right? Because it's a little different mindset. It's potentially not as sexy. It, you, you got a lot of Europe, European, or international things in the portfolio,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Well, you wanna own Nvidia or HSBC?
david_1_08-22-2025_103649right?
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650I wanna own Nvidia,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Right.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650I got a fiduciary duty too to try and beat the benchmark.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Mm-hmm. And so there, and that's it's, and that's not to say we shouldn't own Nvidia, it's just you do that ratio analysis and you identify where the strength is. And when European financials are setting up in such a way to outpace the s and p, you at least have to consider that opportunity cost. cause in the end, price is price and relative strength, relative strength. Pick the things on a relative basis that are climbing the rope. I mean even, okay, gold miners and gold like.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650miners higher. A good week. Gold is still not, well, maybe it did today. Let's see. I mean, it's still, golly, I look so good. I
david_1_08-22-2025_103649But,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650higher.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649but you've brought up in the past it, it's nice to see gold miners outpacing gold. And we're at, we're at three, three or two and a half year highs. Gold miners versus gold.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650And you've get, you're getting a four month consolidation on gold up here. So you know it's working off this uptrend exactly how you would want our gold miners giving you a clue that gold will eventually go higher. I mean, right. And then you've got, right, so the other side of this is the dollar. Well, the dollar continues to trade below a hundred. Getting wall up again the day. Really continues to trade below 98, 99,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Mm-hmm.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Which I know you say, well, Ian, that's 1% less. big deal in currency world.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yep.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650yeah, I think, I mean, right. And the next stop for dollar is to, when using Dixie, which is a dollar index, technically in 89. So what does that do for gold? And whatever the, they're gonna tell us that they're gonna tell us a week dollar is good for, I guess, small caps. I wonder if that'll be the thing we'll go back to in the, that'll be the mantra, which is fine line.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, that's fine. If they wanna, it's fine. If they wanna change, change the narrative.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah. If now all of a sudden dollars, weak dollar's, good for small caps, that's fine.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Speaking of, speaking of things priced in dollars, what we have going on in crypto.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Hmm. Crypto a little now. Of course. Having a good day today.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649I find it interesting how, how well Ethereum has held up going into this pretty massive range. It's been in for a while.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah. And you wonder if, okay, does we see small cap equities outperform? Do we see the altcoins outperform? Right? Because even today, I mean, you got your, I mean Bitcoin, like everything e. Solana Chain link Carano, ripple Litecoin, outperforming ether's up. Golly, 10%, 9% I, and that right, I mean holding 4,100 on Ethereum. I should have listened to Eric Trump when he told me to buy.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Hmm. Well, and even like we talk small caps, Chinese small caps.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Don't get me started on China.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Let's do it. I started you.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650I'm not a commie, but we allowed to say that on the podcast.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649yeah. We could say that.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650say that. I mean, it
david_1_08-22-2025_103649You could. You can offend. You can offend the communists. It's okay.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah. What do we care about, offend.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649But we'll part, we'll participate in their stocks if they're in an uptrend and a relative uptrend, and there's signs there as well.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650commun. Yeah, it's, I like it. I, I mean especially the tech side. Like A-C-Q-Q-Q, big breakout today Wow. 6%. Right? So then you wanna back that down. That's probably your Babas. What was the other big one? Baidu. Golly. Remember when Chinese companies used to get so much attention?
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, I was gonna say Baidu PDD
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650PD. D.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649and they used to be, and it's terrible that I'm, I'm not gonna be able to look this up at this time. But I mean, Baba used to be a really huge waiting in, I'm not saying it's not a huge waiting in CQQQ, but I remember when it was a pretty large waiting in as an A DR in QQQ
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah, and
david_1_08-22-2025_103649and
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650big in fangs. One of them mags or fangs.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649I mean, you've got 10 cent. Baidu. I mean, there's some, it's gonna be it. It's gonna be an interesting finish to the year. And even like, if I could pivot back domestically, I mean XLC communication services, not bad. You throw on that top of that financials, if you're leading, if you're leading sectors are gonna be, communication services and industrials. Technology. Financials,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Definitely has a small cap
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yep.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650vibe to it definitely has a four and five. Right. And that's just, I'm not even like, it's not like Europe has better banks than we do. It is just the way the indices are weighted.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah. Yeah. A simple way to think about it is you're, you're a lot of foreign, especially Europe indices. Makeup is financials, us makeup is tech. That's definitely, definitely a true story. What else do you want to cover, Ian, for our listeners, before we ask'em to give us a high rating and. Share what we're talking about here.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yeah, I mean, I think we've mentioned it is, it's a lot of, I mean, a lot of participation, a lot of confirmation going on today. Yep. We've got four hours. We gotta, we gotta stick it. I think value the fact yesterday our, like RPV Pure value was already in new highs was
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Ah, your point, just your point. Just being.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650is still right. And then, so then, right, let's take value. Let's take value and then let's do top down on that. So again, that's small crops, that's your foreign that's your industrials and those types of things. It's, and those stocks didn't flinch. And yesterday before today's big move. Back to New heights.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, lots, lots of things.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650have like two 80% updates last week or something?
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, if you use like
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Oh yeah,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649s and p, but if you use like NYSE, there was one
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650one. So thrust, e thrust ish.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649well, even a couple months ago, I mean, we're, we're not, we're not too far. Removed some breath thrust that happened not too long ago.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650And so what's the one of the biggest things that we love to talk about? So breath thrust happens, Twitter data dump on how this is 1, 3, 6, 12 months out. We all talk about it for 24 hours. Then a month later we have like a 4% correction. Everyone, like we're, it's, I think that's the perfect example of just how minute to minute and siloed things are with investor behavior when it's like, well, hey, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Didn't like three months ago. We have this breath thrust and that was supposed to be like super bullish for the next 12 months. So why are we worried about this?
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Right.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650And yeah, then it, fine and we make a new high and I don't know, it's.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649What I find interesting is like when you talk about opportunity, cost and relative strength is just when you look at like, let's use, let's use technology. We can use XLK, right? XLK near all time highs. XLK versus s and p is not, and so I'm just, I'm here to throw a fly in the ointment. I'm not gonna look up that idiom. I think we all know what that means, but the fact that there's a divergence there, does that resolve. And I'm only bringing it up because, right, this is about as bullish as we've sounded on this podcast in a while. That could maybe that's, maybe that's a clue. Or is it just rotation that you've had such underperformance from value and small that you're gonna see XLK hold up just fine. But you're just gonna see these other areas start to out, start to outperform, and that's perfectly fine. It's kind of like, when you talk about staples, staples can go in a be in an uptrend, that's fine. It's when they're in a downtrend and outperforming like going down less than other stocks, that's when it's a problem. So yeah, I mean, thing, things continue to look good. To your point, trying to record new all time highs, uptrend is still intact. One foot out the door. When you think about the old adage about market sentiment, I don't think we can call this euphoria right now, to your point, friends and relatives, clients, concern that, it was just a couple weeks ago, we're gonna get a recession. I don't know. We typically don't know that till afterwards.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Tariffs, man. He doesn't know what he's doing with tariffs. This is so bad for the stock market. I don't know, maybe.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, maybe it is. It doesn't appear to be yet.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Well, what if we go back to 1968 to 1982? Okay. Maybe actually a great period to use the 200 day moving average maybe. I don't know. I don't know. I know that currently the trend is up days up. There's confirmation from a lot of areas. Europe looks fine.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Well, and it's, it's one of those things where, John Templeton said, bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. I don't think we're at euphoria. I don't even think we're on, I'm not even sure we're on optimism
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650if this thing grows on skepticism, it could. It could be a seven foot, eight, 13-year-old. I
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Like,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650because, and I think, I mean, you talked about it, we got a three day sell off. We got the put call ratio to spike back, essentially, if you want to call it, for lack of a better term, a fadable level. Watch people get spooked, as my dad liked to say. Tap on the, tap on the fish fishbowl, watch the fishes, scatter, and then reset. And there was a lot of resetting under the surface.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649There was.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650lot of momentum. So you say, Ian, well, it was four day sell off Well go look at some momentum stocks. Go look at some of these high flyers and what happened to them over the last five to eight, nine sessions.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Well, and I, and I think it was a little bit telling on, I think it was the 19th, so Tuesday. So really positive breath. Most stocks up, indices down.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Yes. You shared a graphic on that.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah, it was, it was the, there's only two days with better breath and a bigger loss, and, and I'm gonna try, describe what I'm saying here to those listening. S and P 500, if we can use that metric on Tuesday was down a lot of indices were down, but most stocks were not, it was this, it's that, it's that factor that happens with the MEG seven, right? The top 20 stocks,
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650I think it's the best way to put it. It's like the reverse.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Yeah. It's like the reverse. And, and you, you saw positive stock buying. On that day, even though indices were down now, for some it didn't feel like that. Right. I know. I, I understand that. A portfolio that has stocks in it, those, if they're momentum stocks, they would be down on that day, but the majority of stocks weren't the on, on the 19th. I mean, you had. 55% update in the NYSE. Yeah, the NYSE was down, so that's that large cap factor when those correct it. But when you saw that positive breath during that time, it's another thing to check a box and say, okay, risk is still on. And that's really what we have. And I, I, I do think it's telling that you've highlighted spike, spike in the put call jumping in option premiums. Completely negative sentiment on small caps. Completely negative sentiment on stocks overall. But yeah, you do the work and you look through all the workbooks and you do, you study all the, the different charts out there. Lots of things setting up and is this a breath reset at this point? Time will tell.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Or it's not, and we've got everything else into participation stage now, like the Dow.
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Mm-hmm.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650And small, it's they're, now they're moving to new highs and we've checked that box, but they go back. Then underperforming. That's also a possibility. I don't know. I don't know. I won't know till the next candle shows up,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649That's right.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650probably won't know,
david_1_08-22-2025_103649Bayesian statistics. Bayesian statistics, it matters. So I appreciate you doing this again with me. We hope our listeners appreciate it. Best way you can repay us is share it on your platform of choice. Give us a high ranking, share it with your friends, family, get the word out. Obviously you guys can always disagree with us. That's what makes a market. But right now, uptrend intact, price continues to current confirm, and that's all that matters is price. But Ian, thanks for. And highlighting all the interesting setups that we're starting to see, and we'll do it again next.
ian_1_08-22-2025_113650Have a great weekend everyone.