The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 269: Hanging Out
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
In this week’s episode, Ian and Kevin discuss how it seems like stocks could pause and consolidate to start October, interesting relative charts, risk on areas in equities and fixed income, the continued performance from the mining industry, commodities, and transportation tech funds.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is September 26th, 2025 s and P sitting at 66 16 66. 17, somewhere around there. My name is Ian McMillan. Today I'm joined by our analyst, Kevin Ferrari. Not the most eventful week in at least anywhere you would like to get us kicked off for this episode.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I dunno. I mean, yeah, definitely underwhelming week, considering how we started the week. I mean, Monday was a pretty good day and then kinda just petered off from there, but.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Yeah, Monday was a good one. We've given I guess a little bit of, well more given it all back and more so, but
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Yeah, I mean, really on the week things performing well are pretty much, you know, generally speaking would've been the relatively worse performers up until this point. You know, like energy utilities type performers on the week. Real, real estate, just a hair positive. I mean, healthcare, I guess is the one that still is probably the worst, you know, still down on this week, but
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811sorry, I didn't know any of that.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812mm-hmm. Which, right. You're gonna have those weeks, right? Where some of that stuff that relatively speaking has been underperforming, you know, other areas, they gotta kind of keep pace at some point. So, I don't know. I mean, it. I guess just scanning through like workbooks, individual charts just seems like things Kind of want to just take a break here a little bit.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Does feel like that. And market gods, if you're listening or not complaining, we'd much rather go sideways than go down. We could go down we could have a correction. we made it through August and September. You know, there's a historical, historically can have some volatility. Now people say, oh, October is volatile. I know. I kind of feel like that gets, like every month we're like, oh, oh, this could be it. And then like I, I saw recently, oh, well, you know, October, you know, October is supposed to be, so we're August, September. So
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812All right.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811again, not saying it can't happen, maybe a little shake out before we move into a, a bullish period.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Yeah, because right, like seasonality wise, end of the year is supposed to be pretty good. But I mean, to your point, if we had, you know, I mean relatively speaking, August and September really weren't, you know, that bad. August, we didn't really go anywhere. September's pretty good. So I mean, is this right? These are. All seasonal averages, so you gotta be on both sides of the equation.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811so ridiculous that we even, we are 2% off the highs
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811and we're sitting here. I mean, it is, I don't know. We've been pretty spoiled.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812That is true.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811I mean, March and April, early April kinda sucked, but pretty spoil was pretty spoiled for like five months. Five and a half months. So I think every little creek in the floorboard people get a little antsy, but we held up well. I mean, we also had our chances did they do fed stuff this week?
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Good question.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811What was that last week? I can never keep up.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812It wasn't the the rate cut last week, or is that two weeks ago now already?
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Oh, this is how much I pay attention.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Right.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Maybe that, maybe that was last Wednesday.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812But yeah, I mean, it
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Oh yeah, it was last Wednesday, 17th.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Okay.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Yeah.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812So I don't know. I mean. At least the way I see it under the surface, I don't think really anything's changed. Right? Like your areas that we're outperforming still to hold up. Well, you know, if you look at like high beta, low vol, still showing positive signs, growth versus value, at least with like SPYG to SPYV, you know, if you use like the pure growth and value, like what is that? R-P-G-R-P-V not quite as clean. But yeah, I mean there, there are. Things, right? Like to your point, we had some chances to, you know, make some headway in some of these areas. Like, you know, materials kinda got rejected again using XLB around 93 bucks. You know, that's, you kind continued to pull back.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Hmm. Terrible. Well, of course you got the minors
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812right, which is really the only thing performing well in materials.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811And they do look good. I mean, gold miners, and now you've got silver, silver versus gold,
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811The physical metal breaking out. So you've got gold looking like it's gonna do better. Sorry, silver is gonna outperform gold for I don't know, foreseeable future until that trend changes.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811But both, both those the stocks of mining companies in those areas gone pretty vertical over the last few weeks. And they had a, I mean, they had a really good move before that.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Right. Yeah. And I'm not, I mean, some of those two, or I'd say probably a handful, which I'm probably not gonna be able to even. I think of the companies and ticker specifically, but it definitely seems like some of those kind of nearing some, you know, areas of relative resistance, which I think is kind of a theme even just outside of miners in general, where it's kind of interesting how a lot of these areas that are pausing are kind of pausing at areas of previous relative resistance. So I'm just interesting how that has kind of shaken out so far. But I mean, mining is. You know, even copper miners at least on an absolute basis have been doing really well. I mean, relatively speaking, not much of a play there. Uranium's kind of picked up the pace again too which is good to see,
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Yeah,
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812so.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811has had a very good week.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm. And I mean, that's kind of, you know, boiled over into like international areas, right? That are more heavy mining with like Africa broadly speaking, South Africa. Now Peru, we were talking about a little bit before we hopped on how crazy that chart looks.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Yeah. Peru. Yeah, I guess all big mining, mining economies.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm. Yeah. And really I didn't realize, you know, just in materials in general, you know how heavy that was in like the chemical space. I think it's like 50, 55%
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811ridiculous.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812like metals and mining is
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811I guess, I mean, I
kevin_2_09-26-2025_10381218.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811your big companies, right? Like
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Right.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Dow DuPont? Well, I don't, I guess I don't think it's called Dow DuPont anymore.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811But yeah, stuff. Just random stuff.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Yeah. You know, kind of talking about, you know, interesting relative levels. You know, like XLK for tech, is that a pretty interesting level versus the s and p? You know, if you kind of look at that one, going back to kind of late 23, early 24, you know, it's kind of getting into those highs. So, which is kind of where it's pausing now. Right. Which is kind of interesting how that's shaken out, you know, even. Even if you look at energy, so XLE to SMP, you know, previously back in like, you know, 20 20, 20 21, kind of those highs there is kind of where energy on a relative basis kind of popped back up here. So is it finding some more support there and you know, maybe energy kind of claw its way outta the basement here a little bit. You know, it's a little early to say that now.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811They've given back so much of that
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812it's rough.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Chart that is,
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I mean, that run in 22 was wild for energy.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Yeah, it's such a good start. Just slowly, slowly trickled. I mean, and I guess it hasn't been, it just hasn't done, hasn't done anything. I, oh my gosh.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812No. Yeah, I mean, energy and materials on an absolute basis look pretty similar to me. I mean, well, energy, I think the absolute chart looks a little bit better just'cause it hasn't really pulled back here as of late. But yeah, just not really moving anywhere. Well, the s and ps at least kind of grind it higher a little bit,
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Yeah.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812so,
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811What do you think about fixed income? Anything cool going on there? Personally, I'm starting to get, well, I, I don't know. I would say not disappointed, but there could be. Some things there that I think aren't worrisome, but we're not cruising. We're not, I don't feel like we're in the left hand lane
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Right.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811going 80 miles per hour the fixed income space.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Yeah. Like junk is a little disappointing. J and K, like, you know, looking at that on an absolute basis.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811said you like HYG better?
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Well, I was actually just kind of surprised looking at HYG versus J and k, like how consistently that's, you know, outperformed j and k over the last, what, you know, probably over 10 years about 10 years now, actually even longer younger. Which I guess kind of surprised me, but yeah. I mean the, the absolute chart of HYG looks a lot better.'cause really, you know, once J and K got above, what is that like 90, call it like 98, you know, and it, at least as of yesterday and today, hasn't been able to stick that. And that's kind of disappointing. But, you know, HYG in then absolute really doesn't look too bad at all. You know, using like 80 bucks. I mean, it's been. Maybe 80, 81. It's been above that level most of all this month. You know, it's held that. So, and I think generally speaking in the bond space, it's still get the, you know, get the idea. It's still kinda risk on, right, because like convertible bonds are still holding up pretty well. I mean, those kind of pulled back this week a little bit.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811true. That's a good point.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812You know, international bonds and like more specifically like emerging market bonds is kind of the place to be there. And the international space, those have held up well. I mean, also kind of same case pulled back a little bit this week, but you know, I don't really get the sense necessarily that within the bond space there's really a, you know, flight to safety necessarily. So, you know, depending on the kinda what. You know, products you use to look at it. I mean, the looking at like Triple B's versus triple A's are, you know, it's not the cleanest look in the world necessarily. Relatively speaking, you know, kind of range bound here. But I mean, they're at least holding up, you know, like Triple B's and like JBBB is one I usually use. On an absolute basis is holding up, which is good. So yeah, it feels like if Junk kinda kind of got it together there a little bit that we could have made some headway, but you know, we'll see, you know, T-L-T-A-G-G kinda your, you know, longer duration stuff had pretty nice week last week that kind of sold off a little bit. So I guess as of now, it seems like it's gonna be more of the same.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Yeah, and still really not getting to move lower in credit spreads either, which. We don't have to. That's, I was actually looking over that this past weekend and I mean, you can have some pretty strong, like, I mean look at like 2017, you had credit spreads bottom in February, moved higher all the way through November. Now they weren't like, ripping higher.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811They were higher, and that was obviously a pretty little volatile year. So maybe, I don't know. We'll see. Again, market's certainly not something where you need to have every box checked before you get involved every box unchecked before you become uninvolved. But, yeah, I feel better. I feel better. You've eased my concerns in fixed income with your bullet points on convertible and emerging markets.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812So historically speaking, if I, when I have to fill in on a podcast and they talk about something like that, usually it's the total opposite, the following week. So
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811No.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I guess. Don't count your chickens necessarily, but.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Good time to pay note to the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select listed on the NYSE under ticker A DPV helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength. Through proprietary identification methods, the Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. since not all market environments are the same, the adaptive, the Select ETF seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short term treasury bills and cash market. Downtrends investors can find out more, including. How to invest in AD PV. That's the most important piece by visiting adp v etf.com or calling 1 8 3 3 8 8 0 5200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. Have you ever lost, have you ever lost your principal?
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I, yeah.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811investing? I have.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Oh yeah. Yeah. Plenty of times. I guess the trick is to at the end of the year, make more than you lose. Right.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Yeah, better go find some more
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Anything else you'd like to share with our guests before we ride off into the weekend?
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Yeah, so I kind of, this one kind of slipped my mind when we were talking about kinda some of the relative charts that looked interesting. So like discretionary versus Staples, XLI versus XLP. That's one I like quite a bit. So. Pretty nice move past, you know, kind of the, you know, late 21, you know, kind of late 24 highs there. So, I mean, that's right. Not necessarily an indication of risk off by any means, although I'll say not really a huge fan of discretionary in an absolute basis. I mean, they're, eh. I think the weekly looks a little bit better on the daily necessarily. Like on the daily, it would've been nice if that could have held, you know, two 40, but I can definitely see it holding like 2 35 here and it'd be fine. So might just be a case where maybe it makes a little bit more sense to kind of widen your timeframe out a little bit there. You know, kind of somewhat. Discretionary related. You know, a lot of your, I don't know what you wanna call these, like future transportation, like your transportation tech stuff. Like a lot of those ETFs, like CARZ, KARS, those have been doing really well. And just kind of, you know, I mean, Tesla had a little bit of a move, you know, here. I wouldn't say it's, you know, really if that could. Kind of get out above like 4 45 and kind of stick that, that would be nice. But really it looks like a lot of that, it's more so fueled by you know, like Google's and some of those, which has done really well lately. A lot of Chinese exposure, which China's been doing pretty well, holding up well, or you know, like semi exposure, things like that. So it's really not even necessarily the. You know, the names like Tesla, I can't even think of like some of the other EV company names that you would really kind of think of firsthand. So I, that was kind of interesting. Other than that, you know, I mean, caterpillar looks really good.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Boy, well someone, let's let the rest of the large cap industrial complex now.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812No kidding.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Holy cow. Gotta do so anyways.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I will say that, you know, looking through like aerospace and defense names, it looks like those might kinda start picking up the pace here again, which I think is a good sign.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811I did see that. Nice little relative turn. Hopefully
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Mm-hmm. I mean, XLI has been pretty tight here. I mean, you got some pretty nice levels you can work off of.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811gotta do it though.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812All right. That's a thing, right.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Gotta put the ball in the N Zone XLI. We have to break out.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Hmm. So that's probably one to watch the next few weeks. And yeah, really other than that, not too much. I mean, commodities wise, grains still pretty rough. A lot of people aren't very happy with China on that one. I, and I think kind of the, the news there, China outlined by US soybeans, which is not making people happy and,
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811is that the word around town? Up by you?
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812That's what it sounds like. And then they're not really wanting to buy canola from Canada, but I guess they're getting it from Australia. So I don't know. I guess that's the news in the grounds.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811educated on the canola trade now.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Yeah, so far so good for me. Not so much if you're on the long side of that,
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811All the international trade routes.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812tracking all the tankers and. Is it go across the ocean? Yeah, I mean, oil just kind of hanging around. Metals look really good. Platinum was the one this week. It was a really nice move.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811See,
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812kind of the newer one, so
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Is uranium considered can you trade futures? Probably not. Is that you're illegal?
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I dunno.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Is uranium. Yeah. Here's uranium this can't be right.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812It looks pretty thin, which it probably makes sense, or I'm sure that's not real widely traded,
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811I mean, is uranium available to the public? I.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I would assume. Not in any high quantity, I wouldn't think. Right.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Let me see this. Can anyone buy uranium?
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I mean, I think you can.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811quantities of unprocessed? Yeah.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Which I think is more of like a,
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811You can't buy refined or enriched. Uranium
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812which makes sense. Can't get that out on Amazon.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811I have to have a special license. Through finra.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Hmm.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811I wish
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I'm sure the FB, I'd probably wanna keep tabs on that too, a little bit. So if you start
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811there's
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812buying up a lot of that,
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811exclusion rule.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812okay.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811your 65? Yeah. You can have Uran uranium license.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812I might have to look into that.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811It's a national security issue. Yeah, no kidding.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Enough said there.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Alrighty.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Yeah, I mean for me that's about it, I guess. Definitely wouldn't be surprised if we kinda just hang out here for a little bit, but I mean, one way or another we're gonna find out. Right. I
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811Kevin says, we're hanging out. I'm down for that. It's the weekend.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Exactly. No better time to hang out than the weekend. Right.
squadcaster-921c_1_09-26-2025_113811thank you very much for joining us this week. And we'll talk to you again soon.
kevin_2_09-26-2025_103812Have a good take care.