The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 273: Orphan Annie
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In this week’s episode David and Ian discuss the areas of the market looking to go out at new all time highs, an update on Gold and Gold Miners, International Equities, risk-on indicators, investor sentiment, cryptocurrencies, interest rates and fixed income areas of the market.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, October 24th, 2025 s and p 500. Currently is sitting at 68 0 1. I'm David Zale. I am here with Ian McMillan
ian_1_10-24-2025_11475468 0 1.
david_1_10-24-2025_10475368 0 1.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I don't think you've ever had a number that high. Isn't it amazing what we can do?
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Two days, three days.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Another blue line on the right, a new all time high for the market.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Another all time high for s and p for Nasdaq. I believe for the Russell would be an all time closing high for the Russell.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Mm-hmm.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754And then, yeah, I guess I assume the Dow as well. Yeah, look at that big beautiful ring candle.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753I gotta hold it through close today.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754We do.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753But it would be new. All time highs for Dow Jones. New all time highs. Close for small caps. IWM new all time highs for s and p. New all time highs for Nasdaq. 100 new close. Yeah, new all time highs four. Fse, all world new, all time highs for the Nik High,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753the new all time. Yeah. I mean there, there's plenty of and, and that's how you get confirmation of trend. Right? And I, I don't know that this could be the top. We never know that until afterwards. There's
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Could
david_1_10-24-2025_104753always, there's always gonna be that one all time high. That's the last, all time high for a while. So is that today? I don't know, but we keep confirming. I, I can tell you that if you sold every single, all time high, you'd be in a world of hurt.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754This suck.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Would not be good. We continue to see things that have led in the past be the leaders like semiconductors.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Dow Jones is at 47,000. I haven't even got my 40,000 hat. Haven't found it. I have a 20,000 hat, 30,000 fat. I gotta get a 40,000 hat before we get to 50,000 or
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Hmm.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754now I'm two, or then I'm two hats behind. First world problems, man.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, I'm sorry.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I know.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753I'm sorry that, I'm sorry that's happened to you.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754those are my, that's, those are my people. Ask me, what keeps you up at night? There you go.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Mm-hmm. Now all those things being said, you know, last week we highlighted probably like not the best area to get involved in gold or gold miners. And here we're here we are a week later. And I don't wanna sit here and make it sound like, oh yeah, we knew this was gonna happen. It's just when you look at the interaction with supply demand on a chart kind of looked like a level that was of.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754it was gonna happen. It did happen. I mean, you gotta wait for it to ha as a trend follower, you got wait for it to happen. they did it in a spectacular fashion
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah.
ian_1_10-24-2025_1147546% in a day.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Well, and that's, it was a, yeah. What'd you say? Five or 6% in a day.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753That's like a 4% for a sigma move. That's not supposed to happen. That's supposed to happen one out of 240,000 years.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yes. I
david_1_10-24-2025_104753So how does that happen? How does that happen? Once outta 240,000 years, but yet we get something like that every year in the market. It's almost like the market is normally abnormal.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754So we'll see. I mean, gold miners, they're even, I mean, they're red on a day like today. I think that's over. I mean, there's so much again. He got a way for price to confirm, but there was a lot of a lot of people I would say the last, the last wave, you started to see from in regards to investor sentiment all across the world, people going crazy for gold. Crazy for gold clients, not our clients. But I heard, I did hear a good story of a guy they had a big client one, a bigger client that came in and he put like a fifth of his portfolio in gold last week.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Hmm. Yeah, and I need, I need to correct what I said before. The, the, the four sigma move wouldn't be 240,000 years, it'd be 240,000 days. So once every 650 years.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754650 years.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753but still point made. Markets are normally abnormal. It doesn't mean that the golden gold miner run is over. It just means that the opportunity of alpha, the.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah. Yeah. I think we've, you know, at best to go sideways for a bit. I think that would be the healthiest. But yeah, or maybe, I don't know, it just rips from here. I haven't, I don't know.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, we don't know.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754been a good trend.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753But I find it interesting that we're seeing some movement out of an area that we, I can't remember the last time we talked about this was Steel on the podcast
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753when you.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754yeah. Steel's having another good day today, isn't it? Steel? pretty good relative chart. So you're back to like 12 year out of highs for steel.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Mm-hmm. Using SLX.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754September 20. Yeah, September, 2013. So how about that? Maybe it's I don't know. I'm sure there's a great macro case. Maybe we're. Bringing a lot of factories back to America. I have. I have no idea. Maybe we're making more steel. I have no idea. But steel companies outperforming s and p
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, I mean maybe,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754talked about'em in the workbook.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753maybe, maybe it's metal Kinesis, maybe. Maybe they're turning steel and gold.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Have you seen that prices are plummeting
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Oh.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754'cause of the lab ground? I read yesterday there they said China had come up with a way to make gold in a lab. I don't know about that one.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Interesting.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754When, what if we look back and that was, would we get up to like 4,300 an ounce, 4,400 an ounce on gold? Yeah. 43 77 in US dollars?
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Mm-hmm.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754No. Maybe to get 4,400. Wouldn't that be it? If we look back and that was the top,
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Or, or is China just saying that so they can accumulate some?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754oh,
david_1_10-24-2025_104753You never know, man. You never know when these guys get out there and start talking their book or talking stuff like this. Speaking of,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754they, oh, we also, make our own.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753we make our own. We make our own viruses too soon,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754never too soon?
david_1_10-24-2025_104753never too soon. Speaking of China International, what are we seeing? What are we seeing international?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I mean, yeah, there are some spots. I would say it's fallen off. I mean, not bad. It's keeping pace with the s and p over the last few months. Like an E-F-A-E-E-M. I would say a little better. I think a little better. At least it's above. I mean, from a relative behavior perspective, E EM looks much better now from an absolute perspective and developed. It is already, it's already two. It's all time highs. We got there back in like September on EFA, but then EEM, yeah, those look good on a relative basis, but on an absolute basis. Now you're coming into this 56 area,
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Mm-hmm.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754so gotta keep that in mind.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753I find
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754not doing it though. China's not
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, correct. That's what I find so interesting is you look at like, like just look at E EM versus EEFA and emerging markets breaking out of a base on that relative chart. But then you look at FXI versus EEM, and it's not China that's doing this.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754China's definitely an underperformer for emerging markets. Whether you think it's emerging market or not, I don't know. Don't really care. That's the way the MSCI lists it, not you personally, Dave. I do care if you feel that way,
david_1_10-24-2025_104753I appreciate, I appreciate your sensitivity.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754but yeah. I mean we're back in stocks. You're performers, right? I would still put growth ever value. For most categories or most market caps, however you wanna splice that up. I
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Well, I think one, one relationship you highlighted this week for the team that I, I think was very telling before even today was the high beta low vol relationship.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754High beta, low vol held up really well. Super well a new all time hot yesterday and then. I see having a pretty solid day today. What do you think about micro caps?
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Micro, the tiniest of hats, the ones that will not fit my head. They've still got work to do. I mean, I, I like that. On an absolute basis, it looks like we're gonna get new all time highs if we stick this going into the close. Very constructive for right. If you think on the risk spectrum, micro caps are carry more risk than even small caps, which carry more risk than your large caps or your mid caps. And then you look at on a relative basis, you know, if you look at IWC versus s and p, still, still plenty of work to do. I still think the middle of the loaf midcaps are fascinating to me that they have not made new.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754God, they're terrible. Why does no one own these
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, I don't, I mean, eventually
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754basis?
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, correct. And on an absolute basis, no new all time highs. So I. I don't know if they're the orphan Annies of the, style box. But if you got Micros Smalls larges going out to new all time highs, but sometimes for, for whatever reason, your smits. Your mids, yeah, it's very smid of them to do that. To have your mid caps not make new all time highs.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754a ET.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753No.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I found that out this week.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753No erroneous. Erroneous at all counts.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Like, eh, I, you might wanna check that style box again, Madam.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah. Speaking, speaking of large cap strategies, I should probably highlight
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753the adaptive select ETF, which supports this podcast and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV, which helps investors access to the most prevalent factors in markets. Momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The Adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market Downtrends investors can find out more including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle distributor by Quasar Distributors. LLC almost made it through that without taking a breath. But then I got to disclosure and then, then, then, then had to take a breath. But we appreciate the support of, of A DPV. Helps us get the word out to our listeners.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Momentum's kind of has a nice little show. Like if you look at broad momentum.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, what you gonna use for that? Are you gonna use Mt m or are you gonna use SPO?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754And you can use both.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Okay. Yeah. Nice consolidation outta MTU.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah. SPMO and then on a relative basis, pretty solid. I mean, I'm biased.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753bias towards momentum. Yeah. Bias towards momentum. I get it. So where are we? Where are we in the investor psychology here?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Oh man, another little, do you even remember, I was gonna ask you this, while you were doing, while you were doing the commercial from our great sponsor do you even remember why we sold off like two Fridays ago? Because I don't.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753That was the newsy news.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Said China. It wasn't. China
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, it was the China, it was.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754tariffs.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753It was Chinese tariffs.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Oh.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753'cause China had done some export controls and our fearless leader said he was upping the tariffs on certain products. And that was another tariff tantrum. And maybe that eventually does come to fruition.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754So where, where you asking Where are we at in the
david_1_10-24-2025_104753like are we. Are we euphoria? Like are investors just in love with these all time highs? Is that where we're at?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754in love with all time highs, man. I mean, how
david_1_10-24-2025_104753I know we are. I, I know you and I love all time highs, but are investors euphoric and I, and I'm, I'm using that because of the,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754No, I don't think so. What, okay. What is your, what is your baseline for you? For like, so for me, I think of 2021 and I think about all this stuff going on in 20, like recently, like the Yacht. The yacht club. What were those things? The JPEGs,
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. NFTs.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754NFTs and the, what was the real popular one? I can't believe I'm having a brain freeze here.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Is this, were, were it the monkey ones or the apes or the,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Eight. Something. Yacht Club. Eight.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753A yacht club?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Bored Ape Yacht Club.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah. Yeah. I think that that was a measurement or euphoria. What, what innovative tech, like using ARC was doing
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah,
david_1_10-24-2025_104753just the really,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754blow off
david_1_10-24-2025_104753you
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754as well.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753know, people live streaming, their buying and selling out of NFTs. I think of the, you know, more other euphoria would've been like your 2005, 2006 housing where you check out of the grocery store and the checkout clerk would hand you their real estate license card
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I think we have whatever the opposite of that is. Well, we don't have oh nine, but
david_1_10-24-2025_104753and
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754know EU Orient in housing.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Right. And I would say like the two thousands.com. Where everybody and their mother had the latest stock tip on a.com that was coming. Now, so some, some might say, oh, we're in an AI bubble. I, I haven't, you know how you got some texts on gold? I haven't gotten any, you know, mom hasn't reached out to me about AI yet. AI stocks, my, my kids haven't reached out to me about AI stocks. I've had one client mention AI stocks.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754What be a top AI stock?
david_1_10-24-2025_104753I'm, I'm thinking of like the, I guess I, I, yeah, I would, I would say like, I know semis are, you know, people would throw that in the AI bucket,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754point. Yeah, that's a good point.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753so I guess you can make an argument there. But if we're just getting fresh, if semiconductors are going out at fresh 25 year highs on a relative basis. You look at a, a long term
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754That's
david_1_10-24-2025_104753chart of like SMH versus XLK and we're just getting fresh 25 year highs. I, I don't know, but I think of like things like TTI ion Q cubits I know that's quantum computing and I guess I throw those in the same bucket.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah, I can see that.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753But I, I'm going, I guess where I'm getting at is the old quote by, and I think it's a brilliant quote by Sir John Templeton, that bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. And so I'm always looking for, and it's very subjective, right? To say, oh, we're at euphoria,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah,
david_1_10-24-2025_104753but,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754pockets of euphoria at
david_1_10-24-2025_104753like. When the A-A-A-I-I survey comes out and we're back to majority bearish and the Fear and Greed index is measuring borderline, borderline extreme fear, I think, I think we're still at skepticism. I think there's, you know, we got magazine covers out there by the Economist that are definitely not euphoria, you know, out here talking.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754where I think our, one of our 20, 26 goals is to be, get a part of the A A I I survey. We gotta fix this.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah. Where's our phone call?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I think we gotta just contact'em put me on the list.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah, and it like the cover of The Economist most recent one is the Coming Debt Emergency with a picture of a guy wearing a life vest that's. Basically choking his face in a big pile of water coming at him. It doesn't strike me as optimism or euphoria,
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Wait, who did? Who did this? The economist.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753the economist. So between the surveys, the Fear Greed Index, just anecdotal information around me, this, this is not what euphoria feels like. Maybe optimism, maybe I could see that. But it, it almost feels like skepticism.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Yeah.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753And then you throw in
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754yeah, a lot of, a lot of bricks in the Walla worry.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753and then you throw in. The fact that October's notoriously volatile many times, it turns out to be a great buying opportunity. And did we just have that again? Now we're heading into the best six month period out of a 12 month period, November through April. Now, admittedly the second year after an election, so 2026 is notoriously choppy, so we still could get that and maybe we're not outta the woods. Maybe this is the big fake out. Maybe this is today going out at all time. Highs is the big fake out. I don't know, but it sure doesn't feel like euphoria and optimism to me out there.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I would agree with that.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753What else? What else would you like to highlight for our astute listeners before we close this one down?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Big, I would say the crypto is still a little weak. Bitcoin.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753it's interesting that.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754having, well, it's far off. Its high. It's down at 1 0 8 and it's 200 day moving average for the last, like two, probably like the last week. Bumbling around. I, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, definitely hard to own on a relative basis. Actually got worse this week. Kind of breaking out of. Relative range? Yeah, I think it's at least four Bitcoin. I'm sure someone can go find a crypto somewhere that's outperforming. I would put Ethereum in that. Ethereum looks better on a relative basis, but I mean, Ethereum below. Yeah, 4,400 and then shorter term, I'd say like 4,100. These highs from December, last December. Looks like maybe another leg down there if I, if I had to guess. So stocks, I don't know. What do you think about rates? I mean, TLT has been
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yeah. TLT, you know, TL t's still in a, a range that goes back to summer of 2023. To be determined. I mean that, and that means rates are in the same category. Do we, you know. Rates are below a 200 day moving average. You know, nothing good happens below there. Do we get further rate reduction? I don't know. KRE regional banks are responding to a 200 day moving average positively. So far, we had seen some deterioration of financials overall. They still have a lot of work to do, so that red flag is still out there. I think it's productive that junk bonds on an absolute basis have had two positive weeks and are trying to make an attempt at at new 18 month highs, one year highs, need that to stick. We still have the dollar in a range. So there, there, it's not, it's, it's not like all the red flags just disappeared. You know? I'll be interested to see if we get a bullish percent that flips to Xs after today to be determined. Do we get credit spreads to continue to cool off? That would be helpful, but we'll see. Anything else before I ask our listeners to share us and give us a high ranking on their platform of choice?
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754I don't, I am just, I, we gotta get, gotta wrap this up and then we get to our annual all employee compliance meeting.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yes.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Sick. gonna be rad.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753Yep. Had that one circled on the calendar.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754No, I don't have anything else remaining. An uptrend market continues to laugh at Your worries. Not your worries, Dave, but you know.
david_1_10-24-2025_104753No, I mean the market, you know, we had a client presentation last week and just reminded them that the market knows more than me, knows more than you, and some people can't handle that. Some people can't handle submitting themselves and all their arrogance and of their opinions. After all, there's only correct opinions, right? And. People really struggle with that, that the market might know more than them. And it's actually looking out six to 18 months. And that's what I'm here to remind people of today, is that the market knows more than you, me, everyone listening. It's its own thing. And right now, a new all time highs confirm uptrend could be the last all time high. I think that's a, a lesser likely scenario considering the the breath deterioration leading to this beforehand. If we get breath expansion, it could only accelerate for the last two months of the year. But again, we have to wait for the data to come in. But appreciate you doing this again with me, Ian. If you're listening to this and you find it valuable, please do share it. Please do give us a high ranking on your platform of choice. We really appreciate it.
ian_1_10-24-2025_114754Everyone.