The Weekly Trend
The Weekly Trend
Episode 277: Living on the Edge
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In this week's episode, Ian McMillan and Kevin Firari discuss the price action following Nvidia earnings, reinforcement of key price levels for the S&P 500, rotation into later-cycle sectors like Healthcare, Energy, and Financials, Fund Manager Survey cash levels, the VIX, and what we could see play out to end 2025.
Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is November 21st, 2025. S and p sitting at 66 13, is that what I read earlier? 66, yeah. 66, 20. My name is e McMillan. Joined today by our senior analyst, Kevin Ferrari, little bit more active of a week.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah, I would say
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200yeah.
_1_11-21-2025_113200especially yesterday, it was a fun one.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Yeah. So I mean, I guess, you know, stocks have been trickling lower we could say since late October. And even, you know, a bounce, you and I were talking about this yesterday. I, I mean, up until, I mean, last Wednesday, we were a percent from all time highs. Kind of trickled down since then. Nothing super dramatic. Lots of anticipation over what was gonna happen with Nvidia. And they reported, I guess they were I know it was more, I know it was I think they beat so. Thursday morning you know, a broad, broad approval from the market. And every, everyone happy, everyone ready to resume the uptrend, and that's certainly turned into something different by the close. A lot, a lot, a lot of big, nasty. Bear engulfing candles out there. Really interesting and we're really back to what I find on most charts, including the s and p. So we kind of did this back in Octo on October 10th, really nasty one day, and then kind of meandered upwards. Got to all time highs. Everything is back on track. And then we get to the same spot yesterday and we saw some selling last Friday and Monday, the 67 50 level. But they hit it pretty, pretty hard. So fa fascinating. We've kind of got these two almost pillar, pillar candles on either side of the the current all time high. Cer certainly, I will say there's certainly some supply at 67 60. 67 50.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah, for sure. Nice to see'em hold 6,500 again. So I mean it, I
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Yeah. Yeah.
_1_11-21-2025_113200See?
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Getting the bounce today, there is a bounce today, which I guess typically expected. Right. Now, of course you get your COVID Ds and things like that where things get going, but I mean, even back in February of this year we had, so February 27th, pretty nasty big red candle, well really even going back to December of 2024. But we had a nice recovery. We've got a you know, down over 2% next day. We get most of that back up, 1.63. Then the day after that, a Monday of course another big candle. And then we trade down into the, so certainly not out of the woods yet, but they are bouncing stocks for now.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Mm-hmm. Yeah, for sure. I mean, like, you know that 67, 60, 6500, I mean, you know, the importance of those levels is just each time we test'em, right, just continue to grow. Which, I mean, it's nice that it's kind of a relatively tight range if you, you know, do need to make some adjustments, I mean, in your. Getting some pretty well defined levels, I think, to be able to do that, you know.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Do you, do you, is there anything. That would say this is, that makes you think this is similar or different to August 10th? Like it, was it just like a, a big candle and then we meander upwards? Or you think we just do that again? Or is it different? Is it gonna be different? We gonna go lower.
_1_11-21-2025_113200I dunno. I mean, I guess the assumption's gotta be, you continue higher, right? Like in the direction of the underlying
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Yeah,
_1_11-21-2025_113200is still up.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200I think that's gotta be the base assumption. Upward sloping 200 day. Which, which sucks because usually you get these types of days. When you're already in a downtrend. Now we could be right, I mean Octo, whatever we, October 27th or 2020 ninth, I think was the official intraday all time high. Where that was like 69. Was it 6,900? It's usually, you don't necessarily see. These types of bars that close to all time highs. Although I guess I say that, although over the last few years we certainly have a couple times. Yeah, I I don't know. I think one of the bigger, like, you know, I guess hindsight's 2020 Bitcoin. Been weak for a while you know, that doesn't have to get going for stocks to go back up. I know there's been some extremes in put call ratio daily volume, although daily volume, you know, depending on what you look at. I don't know if yesterday was, if you look at SPY, yesterday was definitely a big day. You know, biggest day since that October 10th and before that August 1st. And then before that you had to go back to the tariff stuff in April. All those were bottoms. I don't know. I don't know if I'm a buyer that. It's that simple. This time, I, I think the market underneath has changed now. Maybe not, hasn't changed. It was pretty weak in October 10th. I don't really think has improved a ton. I think I saw a tweet yesterday. Advanced SP advanced decline line was a six month think it was s and p. Might've been NYI shoulda looked before I hopped on here. But I dunno, I dunno, I feel like we're just a lot less momentum overall in the market than right now, than any of those past instances.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Right, and I think the, probably one of the more interesting things, at least to me, you know, over like the last month or so, you know, if you think in terms of like just sector rotation, what you'd expect as you near more of a market top right. Things like, you know, energy, healthcare, staples, you know, I guess even maybe materials to a certain degree, but I think we've kind of, you, you know, maybe already kind of had that move. But, you know, over the past month, the only two sectors that know are positive is energy and healthcare.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200So you're saying we are kind of rotating into this
_1_11-21-2025_113200I mean, it seems definitely
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Why? Yeah. Why is that a thing? Why do people rotate? I mean, I kind of get healthcare. It's'cause it's kind of now. I don't know how staple ish healthcare is anymore. I mean, I get it from, if you wanna own Johnson Johnson and Eli Lilly
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah. But
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200and
_1_11-21-2025_113200what's, you know,
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200it's not necessary. Yeah. It's like so biotech now, but I mean, to your point nonetheless, they are buying it up. Yeah. That's interesting energy. I don't, I don't really get that one either, but that's what the data says.
_1_11-21-2025_113200right, because I wasn't really expecting that either. I mean, it didn't seem
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200But we've seen that, right? I mean, we've seen that for years. Like, oh, when you get, you know, towards the end of the bull market, people start buying. I don't know. And Sta staples have been, I mean, I don't even think Staples ever got to an all time high, did they? Like they never got above their September 20, 24 high. They've been terrible this year. Kind of. I mean, they've been recovering the last. Few days I guess, but
_1_11-21-2025_113200I think like the timing's kinda interesting with like XLP retesting, like 75 I guess we'll call it. You know what I mean? And holding that level
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200yeah.
_1_11-21-2025_113200heading back up towards the 200 NL. So I don't,
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200What a mass.
_1_11-21-2025_113200yeah, that is a chop fest.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200But yeah, I mean, two, I mean, you would, you would think that people would start, you know, moving into those areas, staples kind of. I mean, December, 2021, people started moving into Staples.
_1_11-21-2025_113200You know,
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200May, 2018, I mean, May, 2018. And I mean, there is people that started moving into staples, I mean, on a route basis. So I, I am a firm believer that are kind of these things, these risk off areas that pop up. We haven't that haven't seen that yet.
_1_11-21-2025_113200More like the industry level, I mean it's all within those buckets, you know, like your oil services, exploration, production, MLPs. You know, insurance is positive over the past month. Regional banks and like, that's it. Well, and biotech, I mean, we talked about that, but
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200yeah, it's kind of impressive how, I mean, XCS does look pretty good. Relative charts kind of trying to do something.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah, I mean it's, it like all these areas are, I'm sure we're kind of talking about before we started recording, like definitely more cap focus too, which, you know, with kind of that candle, especially today with IWM is. You know, pretty interesting.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Yeah, K. And I look at like a KRE. You know, ba, I mean, it's just floating around. It's 200 day, it's such a flat, I mean, shoot, that's flat. You could play, you could put a golf ball on that 200 day, but it's just such,
_1_11-21-2025_113200couldn't, but you know.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200such a mess. It's holding in. I mean, they're holding in there.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200are missing, I feel like we're missing some classic. Hey, there's about to be a decent correction. We've already had a 20% correction this year. Doesn't mean we can't get two of'em.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Right.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200But yeah, it's, it's a tough one. And then is, I mean, is that, is that that, do we just rotate into all this stuff then? What does that mean? What's that mean for like the s and p since it's so tech heavy?
_1_11-21-2025_113200Mm-hmm. Yeah. I
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200I mean,
_1_11-21-2025_113200that
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200markets have kind of there.
_1_11-21-2025_113200No, mean,'cause Dave's talked about this too. I mean, do you just essentially go sideways here through the rest of the year? Is that essentially because of that rotation and then some of these more, know, small cap focused areas we're now, IWM on a relative basis is finally gonna, you know, start catching a bid here and you see some of those other areas like energy and things like that. Kind of pick it up, refin.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200If you look at the K-B-E-K-B-E relative charts, it's just the same for, I mean, and same for KEI mean, you could definitely bottom here on a long-term basis.
_1_11-21-2025_113200sure.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200You could but they just, I mean. How many times have we said that?
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200I can do it though. I know I could. Or is this just a con? I don't know. I don't know, man. Paul never let me pay that guy. I never got to know. Today's close was gonna be.
_1_11-21-2025_113200No. A couple hours you'll find out for free. Well, not necessarily for free, but. I, I don't know. And I mean, you know, Dave shared this, this morning. We were kind of talking about that, you know, like cash levels for fund managers, you know, pretty low level.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Yes. Since what? Like Lois, since 2011 basically. And then, yeah, but like what is. Right. So I mean, why we don't, like in April when we were a hundred percent cash,
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah, I mean, you see a spike.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200but we weren't really a hundred percent cash. We just owned short term TBI ETFs. So I wonder, I, I don't know what I don't, I don't know. What to make of that data. I do think it's valuable, but when they're on, when you're on this side of the fence and you understand how it works, I'm not saying that. That makes us like special or something, but you, it, it leads to a lot more questions
_1_11-21-2025_113200Right.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200like, well, what are people actually invested in? Does, does this correlate? Or you brought up a good point about do people just buy, you know, you can get a return on something now so it's, no one has cash, like having cash on a statement five years ago. Cash on a statement. Now client's gonna ask why? If you're gonna in cash, that's fine, but why aren't gonna,
_1_11-21-2025_113200Right. I mean, I think it helps a little bit that there was a spike in that metric, like in April.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200yeah.
_1_11-21-2025_113200it went from like essentially 4% to, know, not quite five. So I mean, he nearly saw a jump there, you know, so I think you might see the same reactions, just not the same magnitude of moves necessarily. Now with there being other places you can put your cash, you know, to actually get a return, get some yield, maybe, you know, I don't know, but it. I mean, yeah, there really was no reaction whatsoever, at least yet. mean, you know, kinda your point before, it's not really like we're really that far from all time eyes yet either. I you know, I think break back down below 6,500, that might start to be a different story.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Yeah, 6,500 is the key. I think about 67, 50. We're probably back on track. We can all take a big sigh of relief. I'm not saying that obviously that's not guaranteed. I mean, all time highs would be better, but on you get back above both these big sub, I mean, this is, again, this is clearly a big supply area. You get back above that, then okay. You know, we've probably chewed through you know, whatever supply was out there. But yeah, below, below yeah, we'll call it yesterday's lows, 60. Five, what do you call it? Sixty five fifty. 6,500? Yeah. It's the same area as the October 10th lows. Again, the fact that we had some, a lot of supply there and then yet we apparently both times we slammed on the brakes at the same area. You know, that's an equal behavior that you gotta pay attention to. I don't really wanna be range. I mean, it's better than being, I guess being in a 3% range is better than being in a 10% range.
_1_11-21-2025_113200All right.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200I.
_1_11-21-2025_113200if it is essentially more range bound just'cause of that rotation underneath, I mean, then there's still gonna be right in theory areas to take advantage of. You know, if anything. That almost might be a better scenario for, you know, somebody like us, right? Like if you're, I mean, you're in the business of managing against the benchmarks. It's the s and p and that's kinda the best case scenario. I think, you know, get some of that rotation, move sideways, be able to capitalize it. Maybe just some of these small cap areas and you have a nice range that you is defined to make, you know, larger. Allocation decisions kind of moving forward, but Hmm.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200That's a good point.
_1_11-21-2025_113200after next week, it might not even matter. And we're just rolling. Mm-hmm. That's why you gotta play the game, I guess, right?
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Yeah.
_1_11-21-2025_113200I don't know. I know Dave shared that too. I think this was from Dietrich, know, the worst November, you know, at least so far. I don't know when he shared this. Looks like as of the 18th, so a few days ago. Worse November since oh eight. Just
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200I saw that,
_1_11-21-2025_113200I.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200and of course those seven looks like those seven was, but yeah, I mean, I did wanna bring that up. Just from a seasonality standpoint, right? I mean, October wasn't what you would typically now, the whole seasonality thing, I mean, you can make an argument that it's rocky August through October, and then the seasonality really starts in November.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200I'm more of in the camp that seasonality, the bullish seasonality, historically starts more in October-ish, which we didn't get the share. We're not clearly, like you just said, not up to a great start. Well forget. I mean, it's the 21st. So we're three weeks in, haven't, it hasn't been a great November. I don't know. I mean, those are things, those are things where if, if we were bullish during a seasonally bearish period, we would say, oh yeah, that's something you gotta pay attention to. It's something you gotta pay attention to. So I do think it's fair, like if we're lower in January and February. I mean, I definitely think you're gonna be able to look back and say, well, look how dumb and volatile October and November were.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Like, was that a, was that a clue?
_1_11-21-2025_113200Well,
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200so I'm just, I'm trying to jump ahead of the hindsight here.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah. Well, and especially with, I mean, the whole January barometer, right? Talking about seasonality, I mean, that would
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200January barometer.
_1_11-21-2025_113200clue. Or the Santa Claus rally, what was it? It's the last, is it?
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200Santa Claus is the last five, last five days of the before Christmas and the first two after or something like that.
_1_11-21-2025_113200sounds right.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200And then you get the first week of January,
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yep.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200five days of January,
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yep.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200five days. And then the four month of January.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Right. Which I mean, historically speaking anyway, it's, you know, January the month itself is usually a little bit more, seems to be a little bit more indicative of what you can expect from what I remember. Because I think we, you know, past couple years, kind of that whole Sanu Santa Claus rally and like January barometer, you know, it's been kind of a mixed bag. At least recently I feel like. But you know, I mean, none of these things right, are a hundred percent. So is this just gonna be one of those years where that's not the case? Mm-hmm.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200And the other thing I think about now, this is more short term, but so all right. Breath has sucked for a while. Vix is, VIX bottomed in late August at like 14. We did get a VIX spike. In October up to like 28, 29, 30. Another big spike over the last week. And we kind of, so far we have that's kind of been it resistance at 28, 29. If you go back over the last. Two and a half years, and that's really it. You could say 34, 35. But for this current uptrend we've been in since the 2022 lows, I would say 30 or 28. 30 has kind of been where you've seen a bottom. Outside of August of last year, that was kind of a one day thing. And then again, April this year with the tariff stuff it's at least been, yeah, short term. Short term bottom. So now that we're there, it's hard to say. Yeah, okay. This is where I want to be. Net short, I mean, I don't know. I don't think you
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200be net short. Now.
_1_11-21-2025_113200You know, I think
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200but I do, I do wonder if that's that, or it's just a, another tradable bottom. Yeah. I mean, to get to your point, other things, right? You had the spike and put call, it was a high volume day, which usually, you know, shows. You never have big vol. I rarely have big volume days in uptrends. Like overly, like when you look at the volume ca bar, you're like, wow, that really stands out. I mean, that stuff usually happens when people are panicking. So you do, you do have the big volume. You have the lower ish cash levels, which I think we kind of put an asterisk by, but I think it does say something. I don't know. We'll see. So I guess we gotta default the price. I.
_1_11-21-2025_113200Yeah, so.
squadcaster-26id_1_11-21-2025_123200As you pointed out, if we're in this range, I don't know if there's much you can do short term.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234Well, before we wrap this up I wanna bring attention to the sponsor of this podcast, the Select ETF, listed on the NYSE. Under ticker A DPV helps investors access two of the most. Prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength through proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving to short term treasury bills. And cash during long-term market downtrend, investors can find out more, including how to invest in A DPV by visiting adp v etf.com or by calling 1 8 3 3 8 8 0 5200. Investing involves risk, potential loss of principle distributed by Quasar Distributors LLC. Still can't get that word right per.
_1_11-21-2025_120234Proprietary. It's a hard one. Oh,
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234proprietary, proprietary.
_1_11-21-2025_120234there you go.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234I can't just, I just can't say it on the fly.
_1_11-21-2025_120234Right. Well, and then the pressure's on too. So, I mean,
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234know. Anything that you would like to leave our listeners with Kevin before we wrap it up for this week.
_1_11-21-2025_120234I don't know. I mean, I guess if you had to summarize everything, right, like we're holding 6,500 people aren't really going to cash, you know, I mean. You know, considering where we're coming off with the vix, I mean, historically speaking's done pretty well after the fact. I mean, it looks like maybe just rotation going on under the surface. I mean, you know, it's not like,
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234this is it? You don't think this is the top?
_1_11-21-2025_120234I don't think so. I mean, right. The nice thing about operating the way we operate, we'll definitely be able to find out. You know, depending on some of these levels, if we break'em. But I mean, that's the thing too. Everybody's, you know, you can't scroll through XI feel like without a majority of people semen like this is it. So I mean, is that enough of an indicator right there? And I don't.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234Yeah, interesting. For sure. I am. I'll be fascinated where they close this by the end of the day. If we are below. If we're below you use? 6,500? Yeah.
_1_11-21-2025_120234rough man.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234I think,
_1_11-21-2025_120234Ballpark.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234That's that's a tough area to be in, right? And I say countertrend move. If the countertrend moves are so strong in Downtrends, now that's really going on a lamb labeling this a downtrend. I'm not, I don't, I don't think that that's fair. Probably need to make a new law. I mean, if we. Well, okay. What would be, what would
_1_11-21-2025_120234I mean, it's really not even outta the realm of possibility.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234you have to get into, do you have to get below the 200 A for it to be a downtrend in your mind?
_1_11-21-2025_120234I don't think so.'cause I mean, you know where the 200 day is now? We'll call it like sixty one fifty. You know, like just below that, fairly important level. I would say from like, you know, Q1 25, little bit of Q4 24, you know, you got the 200 day there. I mean from the highs, you know, that's about just over 10%, not quite 11% so mean considering how nice of a run it's been since April. Like, is it 10% kind of correction? You're really outta the realm of possibility. And then we move higher from there.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234Probably be a nice reset. I mean, if we get down to, you're right, that would be a huge inflection point you at 61. 40 61 50. Yeah, the February 20, 25 highs you get down there with the 200 day in that area.
_1_11-21-2025_120234And even that.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234would really have to, we would really be finding out what a market is made of.
_1_11-21-2025_120234And like the anchor view up on like, I'm just using SPX cash, you know, from kind of those lows in April. That's right around there too, around 62, 25 ish, somewhere in there. So, you know, pretty close to two. Oh,
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234yeah. Look at that.
_1_11-21-2025_120234so is that, you know, I mean there's kind of a lot going on down there where you'd expect buyers to potentially show up. So I mean. I don't think necessarily just breaking 65 hundred's gonna do it, but, you know, and really even kind of, you know what? Dave's brought this up. Do we just kind of chop around sideways, build a range here for a little while? I mean, that's not really out of realm of possibility either. Not gonna be the most exciting end of the year, but,
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234No, it wasn't last year either,
_1_11-21-2025_120234mm.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234year
_1_11-21-2025_120234So, I mean,
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234apart
_1_11-21-2025_120234no.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234beginning of December through mid-January. Don't get to pick your market. Unfortunately,
_1_11-21-2025_120234No, you don't.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234this one.
_1_11-21-2025_120234Hmm,
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234I would pick one that goes up all the time.
_1_11-21-2025_120234man, that'll just almost be too easy, wouldn't it?
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234It'd be fun more. It'd be so fun though. Yeah, but then it wouldn't be,
_1_11-21-2025_120234Say if it went up all the time, we probably wouldn't have a job doing this.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234yeah, it wouldn't have a job. And then there's now competition.
_1_11-21-2025_120234No.
squadcaster-26id_2_11-21-2025_130234All righty. Well thank you to our listeners for tuning in. Please be sure to give us a high ranking on your podcast platform of choice. And I assume we'll not be doing an episode next week be the day after Thanksgiving. So with that said, wish you all a happy holidays. Thanksgiving. Safe travels if you are gonna be on the road or at the airports, and have a great weekend.
_1_11-21-2025_120234Sure. Have a great weekend. Happy Thanksgiving.