Episode 278: 5x the Fun

In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss the areas of the market that are out to all time highs, improved breadth, what is supporting the bullish thesis, 5x leverage funds, cryptocurrency, and interest rates. 

Transcript

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 0:27

Welcome back to the Weekly Trend Podcast. Today is Friday, December 5th, 2025 s and P 500, currently sitting at 68 64. I'm David Darling. I'm here with Ian McMillan. Took a week off for Thanksgiving. Did you have a good Thanksgiving?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 0:42

I had a great Thanksgiving. How about yourself?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 0:44

It was fantastic. We tried to up our, food game. Because Turkey. Turkey, I think is a little overrated. I mean, it's good.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 0:54

So you're one of those, you're on the turkeys overrated range, which

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 0:59

I am. I am.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:01

What

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:01

Yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:02

of Americans do you think actually don't really care for Turkey,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:06

100%.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:07

along with it?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:08

A hundred percent. All of'em. All of'em go along with it. No, I'm kidding.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:13

We've just been doing this for generations

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:15

Yep, yep,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:16

up.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:17

yep. Massive group think No, I'm kidding. We had, we had awesome Turkey, we had brisket, we had pork shoulder. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, you like Turkey and that. That's fine if you do. I mean, it's,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:29

That's

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:30

yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:30

with gravy

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:31

Yeah. I like the, I like the dark, dark meat.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:35

Nah,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:37

See. It's good. It's good. Well, I'm glad you had a great Thanksgiving. We hope everybody listening. Had a great Thanksgiving. Plenty to cover with two weeks in between. Quite a recovery here for the market since

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:49

Look at that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 1:50

the last time you guys recorded. Not bad.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 1:54

Yeah. was that? Friday, bottom Friday, the 20th.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:02

Yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 2:03

It was like two weeks ago.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:04

Yeah, a little 5%. Correction. Pretty normal. Now we got bullish percent back in Xs

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 2:11

Russell made it all the way to all time highs.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:14

Russell 2000 all time highs. What do you think about that?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 2:17

I don't know. kind of, I don't know.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:21

Is Russell 2000 like Turkey? You gotta prove it.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 2:24

I had say, I would let someone else go kick that football.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:27

Okay.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 2:28

I'm gonna let someone else before I, Charlie, go kick the football this time.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:34

I get it.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 2:35

I don't know, man. Russell's such a faker, such a faker. He never is serious about outperforming. He acts like it.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:45

He wants to.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 2:47

I

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:47

only, we've got 2% return on the Russell 2000 since November of 2021. So four years, 2% return

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 2:56

really.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 2:58

with a 32% draw down in between.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 3:01

Oof. Yeah. And A 32 and. What was this year? 30?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 3:07

Yeah,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 3:08

Yeah. Look at that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 3:10

well and little cousin micro caps kind of showing up small caps.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 3:16

Yeah. Hmm. I don't know what to think. I.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 3:20

I think. I think,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 3:21

any better? I feel like Brett's gotten, someone said that we had potential to get his weak bread thrust.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 3:27

I think the potential was there, but I don't think we got it.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 3:29

We missed it.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 3:31

Yeah, I don't think we got it.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 3:32

didn't happen within 10 days.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 3:34

Yeah. I don't think we got it. Yeah. I mean, it'd been nice.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 3:38

But then, yeah, I think that was, um. Mark because then he, he posted failed. We get like failed weak thrusts all the time and they,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 3:49

Yeah,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 3:49

still.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 3:50

we still go higher and I mean, we've got s and p testing. Close to all time highs here. Wouldn't be surprised to see some resistance near the 6,800 level. I mean, that's where the selling began back in October. Got that 5% correction. Now we're bought back up in that level, the psychology of market participants. Right. If you, if you were a buyer in late October and now you're finally getting back to that level, are you happy to just, are you happy to just get back to even. Are you selling here or is there enough demand to push through this level? We'll see, we'll see. I mean, the VIX definitely has cooled off and I, I think for me, the vix, there's a rate of trend for the VIX that goes back to August that we've broken. If I can use, if I can use technical analysis on the vix, which I will. That's what I am. I'm a technician. Don't tell me what to do.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 4:48

They'll arrest you in. You're up for that?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 4:50

This guy posted, this guy posted on his socials about the VIX right to jail right away. Oh, I tell you what,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 4:57

Yeah. I mean, VIX looks like it's good to go back to 14. I mean,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 5:01

that.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 5:01

below 15, that's how you get to 14. You gotta get below 15.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 5:06

Look at you using math. What about transports? Transports hitting new all.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 5:11

Yeah. What do we think about this? See, this is another. Is this serious? I mean, well, it's serious in that it did hit all time highs. I am not accusing of you lying about that. I mean, it looks good, but can it do it? Can it do it? Should I own? Should I own this rather than s and p? That's the million dollar question.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 5:32

Well, it's great to know that we've got ratio charts that we can use.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 5:37

I mean they, I mean that's a good, and you're looking at IYT.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 5:40

I'm looking at IYT.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 5:42

So, you know what's interesting? Like look at like a old Dominion freight line.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 5:47

Oh,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 5:48

I thought that would look a lot better. Oh, all the

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 5:50

is that, is that your transport? Is that your transport's? Bellwether.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 5:54

I got my trucking

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 5:56

Okay. Back to a, a falling 200 day. Yeah, you'd like to see, you'd like to see that follow through?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:03

XPO looks better.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:05

Yeah. That does look better.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:07

And what is that like? What is, is that like Uber? Is this gonna be something? Is it like Uber?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:13

No, actually, Uber's been underperforming transports that.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:17

but is it in?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:18

It is, it's the largest waiting in transports.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:20

largest.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:22

Yeah. I would've thought I would've had the same thought as you like wanting to see Uber lead,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:28

Yeah, it's not even above a relative two on your day. Not that it looks terrible,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:31

but you, you know what it is that's leading in transports, at least for the past month,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:36

Well, it can be trucking.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:38

not trucking.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:39

It's not Uber, is it? Lyft?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:41

It's had a good month.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:42

I don't know what's another, is it an airline?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:47

Yeah. It's airlines forward Air Frontier, Southwest Alaska Air.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:53

Jets looks pretty good.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 6:55

Yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 6:56

Wow. Wow. How's Owen Wilson?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 7:01

Wilson. Yeah, it's great. Yeah, it'd be interesting. And Jets itself is heading into an area of polarity that goes back, you know, to the April 21 highs. So we'll call it twenty seven, twenty eight bucks. Be interesting to see if we can clear that, but. I mean, not too shabby to see. You know what the first trucking name that shows up on there is Schneider.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 7:28

Schneider,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 7:29

And Is Sia. Is Sia, yeah. SSA's Trucking. Yeah. I don't even know if I'm saying that correctly, but

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 7:36

looks kind of good.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 7:38

yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 7:39

If he got above 37, 38 bucks, that's a pretty solid, I mean, that's like a four year consolidation we got going on here,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 7:47

Mm-hmm.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 7:48

November, 2021. Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 7:50

So if we're gonna see transports do well, kind of hard to get. But to well, I should, before I say this, it, it's pretty hard to get bearish equities if transports are doing well, but I think you bring up a good point that, I mean, ground transportation makes up 62% of IYT

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 8:10

Okay.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 8:11

and then it's air freight and then it's passengers. So air freight and passengers is about 35, 30 5%. So, yeah, you wanna see the railroads in the trucks do well, but not too shabby to see airlines doing well. So do we see transportation stocks? It's not that they have to out outperform, but if they're gonna make new all time highs and participate, that's not bearish.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 8:33

It can't be. Why isn't Nvidia going up then?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 8:37

Nvidia.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 8:37

so boring. If we have to switch to trucks, we don't get to buy.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 8:42

Yeah. Trucks are a lot less sexy than semiconductors.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 8:45

Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 8:47

Yeah. If you gotta buy conductors rather than semiconductors, I don't know. But it's not a, it's not a, it's definitely, yeah. Half a conductor.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 8:56

He can probably only drive half a train then.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 8:59

But at the same time, you've got semiconductors outpacing tech.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:03

Yeah, I know. That's, it is good. The mag stuff. I mean, not bad. I think Dietrich said XLK was up nine days in a row. Yeah, it looks like it. Not that I thought he was lying, but

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:18

And today's a big day for tech for XLK.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:21

yeah,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:22

It's got a split.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:24

I saw that this morning. It said down 49.9%.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:28

Got a little nervous.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:29

I was like, wow. That can't be unless, unless Apple went bankrupt overnight.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:36

Apple also

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:36

Well, if that happened, I probably, we probably just

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:39

cancel Christmas,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:40

sale,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:41

probably cancel Christmas.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:43

cancel the next like 14 Christmases

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:46

But yeah, I mean Apple also knew all time highs.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:50

really well that

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:51

Yeah, this last week,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:53

Eh, not that great. Huh?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 9:55

Goldman Sachs, what do you think about Goldman Sachs?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 9:58

I think a lot of things about Goldman Sachs as a company, as a stock,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:03

Yeah, let's just talk about the stock.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 10:05

Pretty good. Pretty good.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:07

Yeah, I mean, breaking out of a

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 10:09

I.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:10

Oof, I mean,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 10:12

got the, is that all time highs for Bank of America?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:16

gold. Gold, Goldman Sachs, 13 year base versus s and p breaking out

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 10:22

Yeah. JP Morgan, though, not breaking out. Can't do it.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:26

trying.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 10:27

Yeah, we've been trying, this is the fifth month.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:30

Since June. You've been trying since June, or are you saying since January? Whatever. Either way.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 10:35

since the summer, June or July, right

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:38

Yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 10:39

around there. I don't

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:41

I don't know. I, you know, if you're gonna, if you're gonna have JP Morgan transports go all to all time highs and semiconductors versus tech, all time highs. Small caps near all time highs. I'm gonna put those in the bush. Camp

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 10:57

Gold miners have recovered

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 10:59

Gold miners have recovered, which is nice. Silver doing well.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 11:04

silver copper.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 11:06

Copper. Copper, yeah. Copper miners. How bearish are we getting if, if Southern Copper is. Going out at new all time highs.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 11:16

Yeah, look at that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 11:18

Economic or economically sensitive area of materials. Also bullish.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 11:23

splits. They did a 1009 share for 1000 share split

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 11:30

For what? For what? For Southern Copper.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 11:32

Southern Copper.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 11:34

Okay. That is interesting. That is an interesting split.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 11:39

They did one in August, 101 shares for 100.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 11:42

What do, you did a split on your house? 109,000 pieces split. I'm selling you one out of 109,000 pieces of my house. Maybe that, maybe

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 11:53

Don't come up with a product like that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 11:55

that's.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 11:55

will do that and then end up with no house

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 11:58

Maybe that's a garage sale. Let's talk about the dollar though.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 12:01

dollar week. It's probably why these metals are going up.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 12:05

Sitting below a falling 200 day below 100, again could be a tailwind. We'll see. You know, we've covered several times on this podcast how the dollar goes in and outta correlation. But definitely interesting to see the DX, the trade weight dollar below a 200 day moving average and the.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 12:23

Silver. Definitely the strongest of the metals. I feel like. Well, copper too, like gold hasn't made it back to an all time high. Platinum hasn't made it back. Palladium has not made it back.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 12:36

Yeah, look at, look at gold versus silver. I mean, and that's, that's bullish for precious metals overall. If silver's gonna outperform, if silver's gonna outperform gold, it's not, not too shabby. It's not a bad thing.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 12:52

10 futures

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 12:54

How are 10 Futures doing?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 12:56

screaming.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 12:57

Yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 12:58

Yeah. We are at. Through your highs. I mean, big move, big move. Over the last two weeks, 10 futures are up like 12%.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 13:10

Hmm. I believe that this is the first time. Futures on the weekly trend.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 13:15

I mean, medals must be doing pretty good.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 13:18

Yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 13:18

What other medals do we know about?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 13:20

Nickel.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 13:21

Yeah, nickel. Not doing great. Terrible actually.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 13:26

Hmm.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 13:27

What do you use? What do we use nickel in

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 13:30

I would assume lots of things, but what do I know? I mean.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 13:33

Stainless steel batteries, Marine equipment. Engine. TUR aircraft, turbine blades, toasters, electric ovens. All right. I stand. I'm educated. I'm educated now on nickel.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 13:47

It's good.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 13:48

I'm gonna be looking to get into a conversation about nickel this weekend to prove, wow, that's, this guy knows a ton about nickel. Oh, I'm sorry. I sh I'm not supposed to cuss on here.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 14:00

I have

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 14:01

Okay.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 14:02

ep.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 14:03

Ask him if we can use a EP seven second delay.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 14:06

Yeah. That's great. Alright. Yeah. You gotta, you do have to strike up conversations with your neighbor. Like, Hey, neighbor, you know, how's your, how's your oven been doing? Your toaster, your, your air.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 14:21

it out on you. You you might wanna look at your nickel. There's nickel in there. I don't know where it's at, but I did read online that there's nickel in there. I wanna get that looked at.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 14:32

And hone. I mean, I, I'm impressed that base metals, like if you use something like DBB base, metals go into new three year highs.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 14:43

Wow. Yeah. Yeah. Look at that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 14:46

Yeah, I, I think, I think it's kind of. I love markets, man. Like it's, and it's such a privilege to have all these tools that you could use to invest in them. And some of'em, you don't even get a K one. You're gonna be invested and not get a K one.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 15:02

I think we gotta think of a better, we gotta find a better way as an industry to do that. All the advancements we have still issuing K ones. Because

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 15:11

Yeah.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 15:11

to buy some commodity exposure.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 15:14

Yeah, but there's, there's a fair amount. I mean, there's a fair amount of things out there that don't,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 15:19

There are a lot. They've definitely gotten better.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 15:22

it's gotten better. You see the SEC halted their review of five X ETFs.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 15:30

Oof.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 15:31

I can't imagine why. I can't imagine why.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 15:34

up, someone was like, guys, I'm gonna be honest. This might not,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 15:38

I feel like

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 15:40

this

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 15:40

gave you the two x. Why? Why you guys gotta go for the straight up sugar, spoonfuls of sugar,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 15:48

Mm.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 15:49

especially like a five x individual stock thing. That's crazy.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 15:53

And you know, they'd all be crying. Oh, Robin Hood. Locked me out. Now I can't get on and trade my five x apple

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 16:01

I can't say I, I can't, I can't blame the SEC for holding that one. And don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of, I'm a fan of leverage. Like I, I think we should have access to it, but within reason.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 16:11

via margin.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 16:12

Right. I, I feel like it's appropriate to be able to use heat to heat, to warm our, our homes, but I don't know that we need to have a full blown fire in the living room. Seems a little reckless.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 16:24

What do you think they were first saying about, well, when did they come out with two X ETFs?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 16:29

Well, at the index level, I mean. You've had those since mid two thousands Probably.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 16:37

Okay.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 16:37

But like the, the explosion in two x individual stock ETFs.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 16:42

Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 16:43

I would, I would call that a, a, a more recent phenomenon,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 16:47

So you had SSO oh six. See, I wouldn't have guessed that. I would've thought it would've came like 2012 or something.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 16:54

but we're like four years in. Three years into some of these two X individual stocks. Apparently South Koreans like to invest in the five x.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 17:04

Those people are degenerates

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 17:07

They just love,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 17:07

the internet. According to the internet. Yeah. They love it.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 17:11

love it.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 17:12

a class. You have, you have to take a government. Um, like a government administered class to trade leverage over there. Now

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 17:19

I believe it.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 17:20

it's

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 17:21

Well, I I do.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 17:22

It's like a th what did I read? It's a three, no, an eight hour online course and a three hour test. Something like that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 17:32

I bet they, I bet they listened to that course at three x speed.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 17:35

Yeah. Wasting time could be trading.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 17:39

That's gotta leverage up the time too. Well, I, you know, I think it's, I think it's gonna make what I, I believe these products should exist. I, I'm not sure about the five XI think that's a little bit, especially on individual stocks. That's you are asking for a wipe out on that.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 17:54

Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 17:55

Um.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 17:55

I mean, given what can happen during an earning season or something, or Dave, or you could be up a hundred percent. See, you're just being negative. You don't realize the absolute gener generational wealth we could create. As long as we're not like, as long as we're rarely wrong.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 18:16

That's right. That's right. You're never wrong. Right? We, every position that we take, we hit on everyone.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 18:22

Yeah. Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 18:23

That sarcasm, of course, for those, looking for a disclaimer. But it's fascinating. I, you know, I do think it will make the next protracted, and when I say protracted, I just mean time. Like if we get a correction that's 18 to 24 months, and I'm not calling for one of those now, but if we do get one, what that looks like for. Those who haven't taken the eight hour education course, it's gonna be a lot of pain, a lot of explaining to do to your spouse if you're invested in five X individual stock products, a little bit dangerous. Cannot recommend.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 19:01

And then so, and you know how I'd phrase it to people? I'd like, if I only owned like$20,000, like, oh, I own Oh, I own about a hundred thousand dollars worth of Apple. That's what I would tell people. And they wouldn't catch the

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 19:16

Leverage

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 19:17

the 11. Yeah. About, oh, how much do I own? I about a hundred thousand dollars worth. And that. Wow, Ian, that's so much they don't know. I'm levered to the gills. I got a new relationship for you. High beta, low vol, all time highs.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 19:34

really.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 19:35

Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 19:36

Okay. You just trumped me that. Wow. That looks good. Look at you.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 19:42

See, and I don't, so you and you've got Nasdaq versus IWM sitting on a 200 day upward sloping in favor of the Nasdaq obviously.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 19:51

That's a really, so you just brought the Trump card on that one. Equal weight, discretionary versus equal weight. Staples holding up just fine, not new all time highs, but sitting above the prior 25 highs in the first part of the year.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 20:06

You know, it's really falling apart. Well, I mean, I guess it has a while. Discretionary.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 20:12

Like large cap

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 20:13

Yeah. Tesla and Amazon don't, they need to get it together.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 20:18

XLY had a split too. They split all these? Nope. Yep.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 20:23

Yeah. Now you can buy twice as twice as much. You're feeling poor. Well, now you can buy twice as much tech. That's how that works. I.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 20:32

Oh man. So, yeah, I think, and it's, it is, it's great to see these developments with high be high beta, low versus low vol. Semiconductors versus tech new, all time highs. Goldman Sachs, new all time highs, small caps, trying to record new all time highs. I think we said transports. I mean, there's a lot pointing towards bullish behavior.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 20:57

Healthcare kind of, well, healthcare fell apart. Biotech kind of held it. Okay, though the healthcare is back, is this back below a relative? Yeah, back below a relative 200 A, which I guess you gotta err on the side of that happening because you are in a downtrend, relative downtrend.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 21:14

But I think you're, you bring up a good point that, you know, biotech overall on an absolute basis using something like IVB consolidating nicely here, but also up against the highs from 2021. So we'll see if we cut right through that or if. We pause here.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 21:32

We are on the verge of. 18 month relative lows, four utilities.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 21:42

Hmm.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 21:43

I could, I would, I could take that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 21:45

Yeah. They must have state Street must have done a split for all of these State Street split weekend. That's what we've got. It's all good, widely celebrated. Speaking of celebrated should highlight the supporter of this podcast, the Adaptive Select ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker A DPV. Which helps investors access two of the most prevalent factors in markets, momentum and relative strength using proprietary identification methods. The adaptive Select ETF attempts to own the strongest, large, strongest 25 large cap stocks when the market is in an uptrend. And since not all market environments are the same, adaptive select seeks to prevent extended declines by moving short-term treasury bills and cash during long-term market. Downtrends investors can find out more. Including how to invest in A DPV by visiting ad pv etf.com or calling 1-833-880-FIVE 200. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principle AD pvs, distributor by Quasar Distributors, LLC. What do you think about treasuries, Ian? Oh, what are you gonna say?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 22:51

So that's sweet.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 22:52

It is sweet. Five stars.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 22:54

has

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 22:55

Five.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 22:55

has five stars

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 22:56

Five star, suite

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 22:58

out of five.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 22:59

five out five. It's rumor around the street.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 23:02

So for you people that like that type of stuff, check it out.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 23:07

Check it out. Check it out. Treasuries.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 23:09

No, Michelin Stars still working on that

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 23:12

Yes, AA. Oh yeah, we got, we got treasuries here below a 200 day,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 23:17

bad.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 23:17

isn't that.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 23:18

I thought they were gonna, I thought we were getting another rate cut. So what rates? Look at that. Yeah. 30 year back to 4.8. So we are up, we have 30 basis points now. When did we cut? We cut in September. We've had two cuts so far this year, right? I

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 23:40

Yeah,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 23:41

I don't pay enough. I

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 23:42

I know. I, I don't know how to answer you. I, I, that sounds, it sounds.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 23:47

to make a point, but like, I don't even, I know they cut. I don't know when.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 23:51

And you know what? For some fundamentalist out there that's really gonna tick them off that you don't know that.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 23:56

Well, I know rates are up since they cut. I can tell you that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 24:00

Yeah. Which seems like the bond market has more control of rates than the Fed.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 24:05

gonna do another cut this month.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 24:07

Doesn't seem like the bond market's telling us that at all. It's almost like markets are more powerful than the Fed. Some people don't like that, that the market might know more than the Fed

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 24:17

Can't

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 24:17

or the market. Market might. Yeah, market might know more than you and me and anybody listening very offensive, but I think it, I think we'll get over it. But I think, I think treasuries, you know, using something like TLT is now guilty until proven innocent. Below 88 bucks, below 89, and now you could see a scenario you were looking at 30 year,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 24:42

Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 24:43

I mean, early next year. Are we talking about. 30 year rates above five kind of matches the base metal, precious metal thing we're seeing.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 24:54

Above five. I'll never be able to refinance. Sad. Yeah. Look at that. I mean, you, man, this is, it's not a great, not a great look or it is a great look. I mean. want rates to go up, you could be positioned for that.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 25:09

Mm-hmm.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 25:10

Maybe I'll be positioned for that by the end of the day. I don't know. Maybe Dave will be

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 25:14

Yeah, I have a feeling, but we shall see. Not a recommendation.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 25:18

if you short. If you short it enough. See, you know how you say like, oh, you should own. You should just own oil futures. That way when it goes up and you're pissed off when you go to the pump, you are also making money. Could you do the same thing with interest rates?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 25:37

If you're pissed about them being going higher, you just short bonds.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 25:41

Yeah. And

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 25:43

Why not

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 25:44

everyone's complaining, but you're just sitting back smiling, saying, well, I'm breakeven.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 25:49

With your five x short treasuries?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 25:51

Five X short treasuries only cost me a thousand bucks.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 25:55

I think he's the right term. De degenerates man. Like, I think I, again, I wanna be clear, I'm a fan of leverage. I think it should be available. I'm not a fan of margin, but some of these products that are able to track a two x or one and a half x, I'm, I'm a fan of that, but five x is degenerate. That's you are asking for pain.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 26:16

who play like 11 game parlays

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 26:20

Crazy.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 26:20

their draft kings. A lot of, well, I, I was up 70% and then the earnings report happened.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 26:29

And now I'm down 70. Now I'm down 70%.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 26:32

But I was, yes, just yesterday.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 26:35

Oh, crazy. What about Bitcoin Ian? What about crypto?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 26:40

Cryptos look terrible.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 26:42

Yeah. Isn't that, isn't that.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 26:43

think, yeah, I think as long as you're below 93, I assume this takes another leg down. Maybe it does need to go sideways for a bit. could definitely see that. Like catch up with a 50 day, 200 days looks like it could roll over a

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 27:02

And,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 27:03

Yeah. I mean,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 27:04

and Bitcoin. Bitcoin weak as the dollars weak.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 27:09

yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 27:10

Little suspicious to me.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 27:12

TR You think that MSTR could go to zero? think it could.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 27:18

That would be, and I, and I know there's a lot of talk about the business model there, and I don't pretend to know it, but this whole concept of like crypto treasury or Bitcoin treasury where they're just gonna. Own Bitcoin and when Bitcoin goes up, they're gonna take the gains and buy more Bitcoin and it's a flywheel or whatever they're trying to claim seems kind of,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 27:42

Do they take the gains?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 27:44

I don't know what they do. I am not gonna sit here and pretend to know the fundamental strategy of MicroStrategy, or now it's just called B strategy or strategy. There's no more MicroStrategy. It's just strategy. So think about that you rename the company to the strategy, like strategy. It's one, I don't know, seems a little arrogant, but yeah, any stock can go to zero. And I think,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 28:11

You can get

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 28:11

I don't know if you're.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 28:12

though.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 28:13

If you've got a five x, you just get to zero faster,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 28:17

way faster. What's taking you so long?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 28:19

better leveraged out on that.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 28:21

in the first 20%.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 28:23

That's the other thing.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 28:24

look terrible. It's so many relative lows. Definitely an avoidable space. They're having another terrible day. A lot. I mean, a lot of. Close to absolute lows. Now a lot of these have bounced with Bitcoin the last wherever, so they're not quite at absolute lows. These more intermediate, not below their November, a lot of these bottomed like what was that, the week before Thanksgiving, but

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 28:52

Well

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 28:52

pretty terrible.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 28:53

using Bitcoin versus the s and p relative strength ratio chart sitting below. The February 25 lows is a little bit problematic for the opportunity cost thesis.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 29:06

Man, it's gonna be fascinating to see how low this thing can go, because I still think we're at the joking phase of like, oh, you know, does Bitcoin go to zero?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 29:16

Yeah, I would agree with that. There would be some.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 29:17

would set in panic? What price do you think would have like the media frenzy.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 29:23

Oh, like everybody. Okay, so we're below 100,000, so that's already been taken care of. You're right. It doesn't feel like there's a media frenzy about the price of Bitcoin being like panic lows. So maybe I would be.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 29:40

below 50,000 people would,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 29:43

I'd a nice round number. Also some important price levels,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 29:47

yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 29:48

going back to 22, 20 24,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 29:53

Yeah. As a technician, if you're below like 64, whatever, these highs over here in 20 20, 60 4,000,

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 29:59

yeah,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 30:00

yeah. If you were below that, you would, that would be

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 30:03

you'd probably be seeing magazine covers, pop off, tons of articles. CNBC with a lame new logo talking about,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 30:12

What's up with that? What's up with people? They're terrible rebranding.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 30:17

yeah, I don't know. It looks like they

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 30:19

four years, the rebranding efforts have been, remember the Jaguar thing?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 30:25

remember Cracker Barrel.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 30:25

Barrel. Someone else got a new. Maybe they, oh no, they changed it to M-S-N-B-C to like something not

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 30:35

No, I,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 30:36

Not

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 30:36

yeah, but I, to, to answer your point, I, I think you brought up a good, you know, I think. 75,000 and 50,000. Like if we were at those levels and, and maybe the fact that we're even talking about those levels, the low is in, you know, maybe our own psychology on this is marking lows. I'm open to that idea.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 30:54

Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 30:54

But if you're gonna be below the volume weighted average price from a major low back in August 24, and you're below 93, 94, I think that's hands off man. I don't, I don't think you wanna be involved with, and I, I, I, maybe I'm a little bit of a masochist that like, I kind of wanna see what the narrative is it what, you know.'cause if markets are a future discounting mechanism, so there's more selling than buying of Bitcoin for the past, basically since October. So the past two months, bitcoin's down. Approximately 30%. We don't have a strong narrative picture, in my opinion, as far as like what that is. So if we're down another 30%, I'd be, it's gonna be interesting to see what the noise is. What, what, what have we been pricing in? Because price moves first then, then the narrative comes out. So what are, what are, what are we pricing in here? I don't know. Wish I could tell you, Ian. Maybe we could just come up with a story on our own.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 31:55

Maybe Satoshi Nakamoto reveals himself?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 32:00

Yeah, or maybe the irony of AI and quantum computing is that the Bitcoin blockchain's no longer secure. Was it ever secure? I'm not sure.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 32:10

No, I don't think it was because people would steal stuff and then they were able to like trace it. I don't know. I feel like there's definitely something a few times where there were stories where they were able to identify or like get like funds back. I don't know. It's not as, it's not what they say. It's all cracked up to be. I don't think.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 32:33

Yeah. We're gonna find out and maybe we're marking a low in this episode, I'm fine with that. I'm perfectly fine. If we recover, get above the volume weighted average price, get it back above 96,000, will happily participate. But right now, Bitcoin in particular, a little bit problematic. What else, Ian, what else would you like to cover before we, we sign off?

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 32:56

Um, I don't know. Kind of just, we'll see. I mean, Russell made it back to all time highs. S and p know is just year. How big of a correction did we get? 5%.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 33:09

five. About five. Pretty normal. I mean, and, and not too shabby considering that from the tariff tantrum lows, I mean, the market did rally 40%,

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 33:21

Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 33:22

I mean, to consolidate in a 5% range. Let's not get too greedy here. I mean, I like markets that go up in a straight line too, but. I also don't mind when the, when the five x holders get spanked a little bit so we could consolidate here. You know, I think

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 33:36

Yeah.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 33:37

6,800.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 33:39

on five X even if you weren't going down? See, that's another thing that would mess with people.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 33:43

Yes. The decay like at six.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 33:45

has, why am I down when the market's only down like 5% in the last year? Why am I down so much?

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 33:52

It consolidates for six months and you're down 30.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 33:56

Yeah. Or 35.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 33:58

I hope that's in the eight hour course. Gotta understand what you

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 34:01

it on three x. I didn't hear that part.

david_1_12-05-2025_114451 34:04

went right over. It probably got interrupted by a margin call. Any who appreciate you doing this with me again. I'm glad you had a great Thanksgiving. We hope everybody that's listening had a great Thanksgiving. We are thankful for you guys for making this a, a, a great podcast. Give us a high ranking on your platform of choice, share with others that helps us get the word out. We really appreciate it.

ian_1_12-05-2025_124451 34:27

Have a great weekend everyone.