Episode 292: March Madness 2.0

 In this week's episode Ian and Kevin discuss the major indices now below their 200-day moving averages, what it would look like if the S&P 500 does not find support at 6500, the rough look for long-term treasuries and fixed income in general, trade-weighted U.S. Dollar fighting to get back above 100, the performance out of energy and how that parallels 2022 behavior, and how international equities need to find support.  

Transcript

Ian McMillan 0:53

Welcome back Trend Podcast. Today is March 20th, 2026 S&P sitting at 6549. Today I am joined by Kevin Firari. Where would you like to get started today? Kevin?

Kevin 1:10

Well, probably the elephant in the room S&P cash now below a 200 day. This week. I mean, I know futures, I think were last week, uh, end of the week now, cash following suit, which is unfortunate, especially for us with Wisconsin getting bounced round one. I mean, this is kind of a double whammy.

Ian McMillan 1:31

It is a tough day for Wisconsinites

Kevin 1:33

It is

Ian McMillan 1:34

trend,

Kevin 1:35

tough,

Ian McMillan 1:35

trend falling. Wisconsinites.

Kevin 1:37

right?

Ian McMillan 1:38

maybe, if you're like a CFA, you don't care.

Kevin 1:41

Yeah. Probably not.

Ian McMillan 1:42

We care a lot. We care a lot about 200 days. I think it's a pretty solid barometer of long-term trends. we are below the 200 day as of. Yesterday kind of tried to save at midday. didn't end up closing below it also below 6,800 a level that has been discussed a lot. We talked about in client letters. Very big horizontal level. I think there was an anchor v Wap kind of in there. It's a tough, a tough week for stocks all around the world, I guess, except for energy stocks for second week in the row, only positive sector in, the markets, think still the only positive sector year to date. Pretty sure that's true.

Kevin 2:39

It looks like.

Ian McMillan 2:40

was, it was true last week. So I assume if,

Kevin 2:45

Year to date, there's still a couple that are green like industrials, materials, you know, like utilities.

Ian McMillan 2:54

Okay, well, I, I stand corrected.

Kevin 2:57

but yeah, this week definitely not pretty, you know what I mean? I guess financials essentially flat. So far, but not sure if that's gonna stick and really doesn't matter. Although they've been year to date, kinda the worst performer on the year. Yeah, not great.

Ian McMillan 3:12

They're even hitting the staples.

Kevin 3:15

Mm-hmm. Yeah. Staples hit really hard lately.

Ian McMillan 3:20

I mean, I guess you could see it bounce here. I mean, I don't, it's bad. That's a bad look, especially

Kevin 3:25

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 3:26

a low beta area. I mean loss, I guess once you lost the 83, 84 level.

Kevin 3:32

I mean there's, you know, I guess there's kind of some hope around like 81 bucks on XLP. They could hold it here, you know, which really isn't too far. Then from the 200 day, I mean, that would put you like, you know, ballpark, you're about a percent away then at that point. So, you know, we'll see.

Ian McMillan 3:50

Very unimpressive.

Kevin 3:51

You know what I mean? Oh, we talked about the S&P, you know, below the 200 day QQQs. Now

Ian McMillan 3:58

Yeah,

Kevin 3:58

below 200 day losing, you know, like five 90, which I guess, you know, like five 80 ish, somewhere in there. And you can maybe find some buyers step in, but you know, below that it's not it's not really a pretty picture.

Ian McMillan 4:13

a pretty clean break. I mean, consolidated for five weeks,

Kevin 4:19

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 4:20

broke down, right? Right below the 200 day, like I said earlier, kind of tried to bounce yesterday back up into the 200 day that it didn't work. So.

Kevin 4:34

Which what was kind of interesting, you know, the last couple weeks, you know, talking about like breath deterioration, but I mean, really the QQQs, you know, I guess relatively speaking breath wise, you know, really wasn't too bad for the most part last couple weeks. I mean, they were kind of holding steady there for a little bit, but I mean, you know, now it looks like they're just gonna take it. So it doesn't look like that really was foreshadowing anything positive, at least as of now. But I guess, you know, Dow two below 200 day

Ian McMillan 5:04

Hmm.

Kevin 5:04

kind of losing 45, 7 50, that's,

Ian McMillan 5:08

Doubt does not look maybe the worst set of all of them.

Kevin 5:12

yeah, I think you could make that argument for sure. I mean, Russell, you know, hanging in there, I guess at least in regards to the 200 day, I mean, we're. Though we're looking like,

Ian McMillan 5:25

maybe I would have to do it here.

Kevin 5:27

hmm,

Ian McMillan 5:27

We gotta bounce here and now.

Kevin 5:29

like not quite 2% away. A little shy of that, like a quarter of a percent shy from there. Know, we'll see.

Ian McMillan 5:37

All we

Kevin 5:38

mean,

Ian McMillan 5:38

do is pray.

Kevin 5:38

mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 5:40

pray for mercy.

Kevin 5:41

It's about it. I'm like,

Ian McMillan 5:43

fixed income? Fixed income is also spooky, I assume.

Kevin 5:47

that's gross. TLT below a 200 day getting hit really hard today. You know, as of right now, down one point, you know, 8% ish, somewhere in there, just keeps getting worse.

Ian McMillan 5:56

yes, you've got long-term treasuries back to their lowest since September. So we're talking about base six months, so clearly, at least bond traders not buying the lower rates story.

Kevin 6:14

Oh, rate's going up.

Ian McMillan 6:15

I mean, you've got, you've, so you've got a 30 year, 30 year US Treasury yield back up to almost 5%. It's crazy to think less than a month ago. We were talking about four point a half percent. So back up into the top, the top end of the range we've been in. I mean, I guess you'd say five, 5.1, 5.145. You know, not quite to the max we've seen over the last few years, two or three years. But market absolutely not believing that. I don't know if it's an inflation. I don't know. I don't know what, I don't know what the thesis is. I guess maybe they just don't believe in inflation going back down. But interest

Kevin 7:07

you? Wouldn't you think tips then would be holding up a little bit better than they are? I mean, they're getting hit really hard too, but I mean, maybe not.

Ian McMillan 7:13

liquidity thing that people just want out.

Kevin 7:15

Could be. I just want the cash. I mean, even, you know, like even like a lot of your ultra short bond funds, like are even, I mean, it's not like they're necessarily selling off, but they're definitely kind of slowing down or really, it's like the, I don't know, really the only place it feels comfortable to be, I feel like in the fixed income space is just like T-Bills, like just. Which at that point then, right, are people just saying, I'd rather just be in cash and not even worry about it.

Ian McMillan 7:43

Yeah, and that few things safer than government backed one month debt, three month debt.

Kevin 7:50

Which I guess I would almost consider it T-bills kind of almost like a cash equivalent, somewhat.

Ian McMillan 7:54

Think it is. At least it's cash that pays you.

Kevin 7:57

right. So I mean, that's.

Ian McMillan 7:59

Well, if this market's not closer, A DPV is gonna be in T-Bills. It would probably be a great time. Look at that segue, Kevin.

Kevin 8:09

Good job well done.

Ian McMillan 8:11

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Kevin 8:28

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Ian McMillan 8:28

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Kevin 9:22

That's a tough one.

Ian McMillan 9:23

I think I just messed it up. Maybe I messed it up there. I don't know. I got it right in the moment though. I think we need to save that clip,

Kevin 9:30

Just,

Ian McMillan 9:30

that

Kevin 9:31

use it.

Ian McMillan 9:31

doing the commercial.

Kevin 9:33

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 9:34

So in future episodes we can just play that. We'll just sub that in two. I don't think anyone's ever called that number. Not that I'm complaining. You don't need to call it.

Kevin 9:47

Yeah, the internet's a great thing.

Ian McMillan 9:49

I think legally we have to give you a phone number to call.

Kevin 9:52

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 9:53

I think I remember something about that.

Kevin 9:55

I think so.

Ian McMillan 9:56

so

Kevin 9:57

Well do you, because I mean now that we're below a 200 day, do you want to kind of talk more how that works? Like what does it take to get, like what does it take to flip.

Ian McMillan 10:07

yeah, so we would need five day, five day moving average below the 200 day, which. You know, today, you don't have to have five days. You know, I like to think of it as about you need, you need the index itself to be under the 200 day for about five days. That's not always how it happens. Based on percentages. I mean, if you had one super terrible candle, sure. I mean, right. It's just, you just gotta pull the average over the last five days down enough.

Kevin 10:36

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 10:38

So not gonna get there this week. Unless we have a terrible afternoon.

Kevin 10:45

That would've to be pretty wild, eh?

Ian McMillan 10:47

Have to be bad. I mean, we probably need like a 4% down day. So we looks, looks like a DP people holding stocks at least for another week. And then we are in cash models though. It can go to cash

Kevin 11:04

Hmm.

Ian McMillan 11:05

parts that don't hold the ETF, but yeah, the ETF, it acts on its own. I'm sure if this continues by next Wednesday, I'll be squirming. And just saying, gosh, get me in T-bills, but such is life.

Kevin 11:20

Think, man, we lose 6,500. It's, I mean, realistically you're talking like 61, 50, 62, right? Somewhere in there.

Ian McMillan 11:29

yeah, I think you, if you get, if we break this and so what stinks is a core, I mean, golly, it'd be so logical to bounce here. You could bounce Well, I mean, we were talking about this yesterday in market call, you could bounce. All the way back to 6767 50, whatever these highs from like last Tuesday, I guess it would be this Tuesday, get back above a 200. A downturns are such a pain in the butt. But yeah, I'm with you below 6,500. You don't really have much.

Kevin 12:06

There?

Ian McMillan 12:06

in the way until like 6,100.

Kevin 12:08

No, I mean like from the highs, if we come all the way back down to like 61, you know, like the highs from like end of 24, beginning of 25, you know, that's basically 12%. Which I guess is not extremely unreasonable to see that.

Ian McMillan 12:25

then, right. Okay, so then let's say we get there, which, I mean, I think you could get there. If we're, I mean, I, I think you could be there by the end of April.

Kevin 12:34

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 12:35

So then by is, is your 200 day rolling over? It's definitely flattening out, right? So then you're gonna start having that tail? No, I guess. All right. So for tariff tantrum, we never really, the 200 day, never really.

Kevin 12:50

No, I mean at

Ian McMillan 12:51

it kind of flattened out.

Kevin 12:53

at the lows. Basically kind of just getting into the lows.

Ian McMillan 12:55

the lows it kind of, I mean, technically, yes, did have a high, and then it, I mean it rolled over like a very Etsy bit and then went flat. So, yeah, you just, you gotta get it done quickly. If we're gonna do it, we gotta do a little tariff tantrum, get it done quickly so it doesn't mess up our upward sloping 200 day,

Kevin 13:15

I rip the bandaid.

Ian McMillan 13:16

we gotta do this optically. Maybe that's what they're, do you think they talk about that in the White House?

Kevin 13:21

How do we want the chart to look?

Ian McMillan 13:22

optics, we can't have a downward sloping 200 day or else the cmts will get in a tizzy.

Kevin 13:29

I mean, if I had to put money on it, I'm guessing they don't. No,

Ian McMillan 13:32

are, are super happy about Micron earnings.

Kevin 13:35

I just don't get earnings in general. I just don't get it.

Ian McMillan 13:39

You don't have, that's the beauty of ta. We

Kevin 13:41

Don't have to get it.

Ian McMillan 13:42

We don't have to get it. So we've had, this is going back to Palantir, but you said you've had Palantir, Nvidia, now Micron. I'm sure there's been others, but those are definitely the three. That come to mind.

Kevin 13:56

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 13:56

sits on the edge of their seat at after the closing bell. And then these three, I mean, I would say very I mean, NVIDIA's pretty important as far as waitings. I'd

Kevin 14:08

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 14:09

are important as far as sentiment. But you have all three of'em. Great earnings blowout, our blowout earnings, and then they just, they, they pound on the stock.

Kevin 14:19

Mm-hmm. Yeah. And really, well, maybe not in Nvidia so much, but like Micron leading into earnings like Tuesday, the day before. I mean, that's just a great look all time. Eyes up above 4 45, you know. Even just, I mean, even day of earnings Wednesday, you know, kind of held that essentially flat for the day and then

Ian McMillan 14:43

And now we've got a failed breakout.

Kevin 14:44

nah, it doesn't matter.

Ian McMillan 14:46

I mean, I guess this could just be a little dip below 40, what is this, 44 or 445? 4 48. Somewhere in there. I don't know. We'll see.

Kevin 14:58

And I mean.

Ian McMillan 14:59

look.

Kevin 14:59

Semiconductors, relatively speaking, are holding up all right. You know, like SMH to SPX, kinda just chopping around here a little bit. It's not like it's getting relatively hammered. even just XLK, the relative chart back up above a relative 200 day. Now that, I mean, it's pretty close. Whether or not that's gonna stick, I guess, I don't know, but.

Ian McMillan 15:24

speaking of semiconductors, this is the first story I saw this morning. On soc on the interwebs. Did you read about that guy that got caught smuggling Nvidia chips in to China? Yeah, he got caught smuggling in Nvidia chips and they were like taking the serial numbers. They had a massive operation, like billion, I think$2 billion worth of Nvidia chips. And they were like taking off the serial numbers with hair dryers. And then they had this like whole fake operation set up to like fool all like the US and Chinese inspectors. It's crazy. Yeah. You should go find it. He's get, he's getting like yeah. I don't know. I don't know how a Chinese judicial system works, but

Kevin 16:11

Like Russia, they just disappear.

Ian McMillan 16:13

yeah, I think that's exactly how it works. Did we ever find Jack Ma, did he ever come back?

Kevin 16:18

That's a good question. I don't know, man.

Ian McMillan 16:22

back.

Kevin 16:23

Could be, makes me wonder.

Ian McMillan 16:25

All right, so fixed income stinks. Stocks stink, both foreign and domestic. Crypto stinks. Yeah, you kind of had the failed move on Bitcoin tried to get above 72.

Kevin 16:38

Yeah, I really couldn't do it. I mean,

Ian McMillan 16:39

Got up to 76 7,

Kevin 16:41

it for like a day or two. Now I'm kinda looking like I might wanna roll back over. I mean, even, you know, Ethereum, I'm kinda the same deal. So yeah, not really good in crypto land.

Ian McMillan 16:50

They never bounced. Soft. I mean, well, I don't know. We'll see. is still interesting to me. We'll see. That's tough though. That's tough.

Kevin 16:59

Hmm.

Ian McMillan 17:00

What about the dollar?

Kevin 17:01

Fighting. I mean, they keep,

Ian McMillan 17:03

us over? Strong dollar

Kevin 17:05

yeah, they keep trying to, they keep trying to get back up above like a hundred.

Ian McMillan 17:10

Oh

Kevin 17:10

For DX

Ian McMillan 17:11

If we get, if we

Kevin 17:12

or a hundred dollars 50 cents.

Ian McMillan 17:14

if we get back in this range from a hundred to 1 0 7,

Kevin 17:17

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 17:18

I might just ask Dave to take off. The rest of the spring.

Kevin 17:22

Well, by end of next week it might be in cash and it might be a little easier.

Ian McMillan 17:26

That's what I'm saying.

Kevin 17:27

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 17:28

I mean, if, if we're gonna be twiddling our thumbs for the foreseeable months, I can go twiddle'em somewhere with real nice weather.

Kevin 17:36

Hit up a bar, watch some March Madness.

Ian McMillan 17:39

Do you have any bars close to you guys?

Kevin 17:40

Yeah, there's a couple. I

Ian McMillan 17:42

I mean, that's Wisconsin. So I guess that was kind of a stupid question, but

Kevin 17:45

don't.

Ian McMillan 17:46

that's good. Do you have a favorite, do you have a favorite local bar or not enough time yet because of the little ones?

Kevin 17:51

Yeah, I don't really get out too much with the kids now anymore, but no, there's a

Ian McMillan 17:57

Bard Ice here probably in a few years though.

Kevin 18:00

maybe a good, so our youngest turns one this weekend. Maybe that's what we can get him for his birthday.

Ian McMillan 18:05

one. And you said it is themed, right?

Kevin 18:09

Yeah. I don't even know what the theme is. I probably should. It's all right. I thought my wife, my wife doesn't listen anyway. So

Ian McMillan 18:14

Tractors, farm. It could be farm themed. That'd be fitting.

Kevin 18:17

could be, I mean, that's probably close to what it is. Exciting stuff?

Ian McMillan 18:22

What's he, does he want anything? Like is he in anything yet?

Kevin 18:25

No,

Ian McMillan 18:26

No.

Kevin 18:27

get him to crawl around consistently. He's a little bit more, uh, lazy on the movement than his brother was. He was moving around his brother like crazy. Our youngest, not so much.

Ian McMillan 18:37

So you have a lot of people coming to town.

Kevin 18:39

Oh yeah. Which with a nice blizzard we had earlier this week. That'll be

Ian McMillan 18:44

Yeah. You guys did get quite a bit of the sn.

Kevin 18:47

mm-hmm. A nice, solid 16 inches.

Ian McMillan 18:51

Oh my gosh. 16 inches.

Kevin 18:54

Something like that.

Ian McMillan 18:56

Does your wi does your wife has to go to work?

Kevin 18:59

I mean, we got, I think it took us, I. Around four hours, maybe a little bit more to get the driveway opened up Monday afternoon. It was fun. And then now it's really warm, so everything's just a sloppy mess.

Ian McMillan 19:10

Yeah,

Kevin 19:12

Hmm.

Ian McMillan 19:13

just like the market.

Kevin 19:14

I know.

Ian McMillan 19:14

metaphor to end

Kevin 19:15

It is great. It's all coming together very nicely

Ian McMillan 19:19

Well, Not a pretty picture. We are below a 200 day, so that. That needs to get fixed asap or we start talking about being in cash and going ahead and planning our summer activities. But yeah, rough, rough across the board, as Kevin said, roughing fixed income as well that's been the case for a while. So I guess no surprise that it has spilled over into equities.

Kevin 19:53

So how, uh.

Ian McMillan 19:55

I would say that I don't what's the best way to put this? think that given this, that we're coming from this ol a five week consolidation and breaking down. It doesn't look, it isn't, this isn't like a bottom behavior. This isn't like, I mean, I guess we could get a fail breakdown here, but if we don't, I mean, it's not like, oh my gosh, like we've, we've just, we've cratered so quickly, so much, so quickly. Like that's not the case here. Like it was last March and April,

Kevin 20:25

Mm-hmm. With like energy, with what energy and like oil are doing this kind of gives like off more of like 20, 22 vibes a little bit or like everything else kind of sells off energy does fine, you know, for a little while. And then,

Ian McMillan 20:39

see, and then we'll know, and then we'll know when they start selling energy. That, or

Kevin 20:43

I

Ian McMillan 20:44

well, then I might, I mean, they didn't stop selling energy

Kevin 20:48

mean, really it was.

Ian McMillan 20:49

June until June. In 2022. Yeah. How about that? Anything you'd like to leave our listeners with? Kevin? I,

Kevin 20:59

I mean, international still. I mean, emerging markets gonna fight for its life here a little bit.

Ian McMillan 21:05

yeah, that's one that's gotta do it here at the oh eight

Kevin 21:07

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 21:08

Gotta do it. Strong dollar also not helping

Kevin 21:12

No.

Ian McMillan 21:13

EEM chart

Kevin 21:14

Yeah, EFA doesn't look good. You know, IV below 200 day now today so far.

Ian McMillan 21:21

v Europe's below 200 day

Kevin 21:23

Mm-hmm.

Ian McMillan 21:24

and Oh yeah,

Kevin 21:25

China continues to look worse, so BA got hit pretty hard on earnings.

Ian McMillan 21:30

So China, which already looked like crap.

Kevin 21:34

The one interesting thing in like the fixed income space. Like Chinese bonds are doing just fine. I mean,

Ian McMillan 21:39

did bring that up

Kevin 21:40

nah,

Ian McMillan 21:40

was a good chart.

Kevin 21:41

CBON is what we used the ETF for that. I mean, that was a,

Ian McMillan 21:46

And then

Kevin 21:46

a heck of a candle yesterday. Mm-hmm. So that one is, that one is interesting.

Ian McMillan 21:51

Yeah. I mean, you look at that Chinese bonds versus S&P, that's a healthy, that's a healthy chart. Why do we wanna buy Chinese bonds? I don't know. Maybe they're the new US treasuries. You can trust. You can trust the Chinese. Sovereign debt as good. All righty. Well, that's that. I,

Kevin 22:13

I just hope we can hold 65, 50. It's fine. We're ripping next week. Nothing happened.

Ian McMillan 22:21

man, that'd be powerful too. Fail breakdown.

Kevin 22:24

It.

Ian McMillan 22:24

you know, with the horizontal level and a 200 a, we definitely think it's something to keep in the back of your mind. But if we don't, if we don't get that and fairly soon, I, yeah. Could be six more weeks of winter.

Kevin 22:44

Could be

Ian McMillan 22:45

county fill for the, for the market.

Kevin 22:48

pretty much the Fed, ain't it? That's what it feels like,

Ian McMillan 22:50

pal.

Kevin 22:51

whether or not he sees a shadow at the podium.

Ian McMillan 22:54

yeah. Bring him outta his cage.

Kevin 22:56

Oh, man.

Ian McMillan 22:58

Someone will make an AI video of that.

Kevin 23:00

No. It's probably already out there. It has to be by the time you think of it, somebody's already thought of it probably six months ago, if not longer. I feel like.

Ian McMillan 23:08

Funnier people than us. All righty, well have a great weekend everyone.

Kevin 23:13

Yep.

Ian McMillan 23:13

Hopefully we will have better news in seven days.

Kevin 23:17

Fingers crossed.

Ian McMillan 23:19

Have a great week everyone.