Trump Mulls Taking Cuba: “I Can Do Anything I Want With It”

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio speaks to Mark Urban for The Times At One, + Extras. 

Transcript

Mark Urban 0:00

Now, the war in the Middle East has drawn in more than a dozen countries, and uh as we've just been talking about it, it does dominate our news agenda right now. But of course, there is the rest of the world, and the way that President Trump seems to have added to an acceleration of global change or instability that's going on. Think back a couple of months to the toppling of Venezuela's President Maduro. One of the things that happened after that was the US stopped Venezuelan oil going to Cuba. Now, that's having an effect, so much so that President Trump is even wondering aloud whether, as he put it, he will have the honor of taking Cuba. Well, Jon Bonfiglio, Latin American Correspondent, joins us now from Mexico City. Welcome to the programme, Jon.

Jon Bonfiglio 0:55

Good afternoon.

Mark Urban 0:56

What are the symptoms? What are the things that we see going on in Cuba that might indicate the government there is really feeling that oil embargo?

Jon Bonfiglio 1:09

I mean, I guess you've got the social context, which of course, you know, the oil embargo, the oil shortage, as well as when you multiply that with the ailing sort of electrical grid system is definitely being felt and sort of, as I say, underscores absolutely everything that takes place on a day-to-day basis on the island. Um I think uh recently in the last few days we've also begun to see some protests. I mean, by international standards, those protests are minimal, uh, they're meaningless, if you like, but in in a in a context in which um protests just don't exist and haven't existed in Cuba for the last three generations, any protest at all taking place really is significant. And then the very fact that we are aware of uh talks now taking place between the United States and Cuba is also um significant as well. Of course, the understanding of those talks and what those talks are designed to bring about is uh there's just a pretty significant chasm between what the US um authorities, the administration is saying, and what what's coming out of Havana.

Mark Urban 2:17

I mean, the the uh Venezuelan oil was was obviously critical to their economic well-being, and now the US has a kind of stranglehold in that sense. So so what are the Cuban government's options now?

Jon Bonfiglio 2:30

Well, honestly, very few, because um it's not as though the international community is at its strongest, is having its strongest moment at this point in time. So there's very little sort of rhetoric of support. I mean, there is some, there's some coming out of of Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, but again, those are sort of leftist Latin American figures that you would expect to be supporting Cuba with their with their discourse. And of course, they're all hamstrung anyway. Mexico's hamstrung because it's it's on the border with with the United States, and there's continuing threats of incursions, military incursions into Mexico. It's election year for both Lula and um uh in Brazil and Petro in in Colombia. So so there's difficulties there. And and as regards Cuba's traditional allies in China and Russia, they've got their own things going on. And and the the sort of the um um the perception is that it's not really worth their while to make Cuba a particular issue or a or a sticking point. So as you going back to these talks between the US and um and Cuba, Cuba has very very few hands to play, and to some extent it has already played some of them. It's beginning to release uh prisoners, what um some people would regard as being political um prisoners. There are moves being made to open up, to restructure the economy and opening up opening it up to, in particular, investment from sort of um Cuban exiles who are who are living abroad, but the US um and Donald Trump in particular knows that it has them over a barrel and it is fully intent on uh on accelerating and accentuating this sort of elevated position that uh that it has, to the extent that it's very difficult to see as a series of situations in which Cuba does not fall in some way, shape, or form in the next few months.

Mark Urban 4:16

Really? But but but then what happens? Because uh presumably if if the government falls or or indeed even implodes, there could be uh refugees. We all remember the the phenomenon of people taking to boats to get across to Florida. Uh what are the possible regional implications if if it goes under?

Jon Bonfiglio 4:41

Well, I think Venezuela gives us a clue as to this. And um and again, I that the sort of one of the things about this Trump administration is that they don't really, I mean, there's lots of mixed signals being sent all the time, but but they don't really hide their intentions. And and what took place in Venezuela wasn't regime change. There's no interest. I mean, everything for the Trump administration is economic, it's mercantile. And that's obviously the case with with Venezuela. Uh a sort of transition towards democracy or regime change is is is muddy, it's difficult, it it's complex, and it reduces a sort of a the potential for a clean entry for uh for commercial interest. So um what's sort of the the term that's being used here at the moment rather than regime change is regime compliance. Now, as regards the talks, what what um the Trump administration is is emphasizing is that the President Miguel Díaz Canel must go, but there's no discussion at all of the end of the of the Communist Party on the island. So again, as with Venezuela, the reason I bring that up is because it seems to be that what what uh the Trump administration is looking for is a sort of a vassal state in which the existing power structures remain in place but are compliant to US uh desires and um and interests.

Mark Urban 5:58

Jon Bonfiglio, thank you for that insight. I I I must say I didn't anticipate that uh this might end up with Trump sustaining the communist government in Cuba in some shape or form.

Jon Bonfiglio 6:09

Hi everyone, well that was a rare slot at lunchtime on Times Radio in the United Kingdom. Normally international news um features much more in the evening, late evening sections, and occasionally when there's when there's breaking news, big news in the region, and sometimes we're summoned onto the onto the breakfast shows. Um and of course there's been a fair bit of that this year, but lunchtime is unusual. Um I just wanted to add a thought on some of the Trump's rhetoric yesterday. I mean, it was um pretty brazen, even by President Donald Trump's standards, especially when he said and I quote, I think I could do anything with a unquote pretty remarkable uh language was so far beyond any sort of um sense of standard operating procedure as regards the international um landscape. It's uh we're right over the edge of that. Uh and yeah, this is definitely a Trump administration determined to make history and and take Cuba. I also thought it was when he refers to the honour of um of taking the island. You could read it that it's the honour of um of uh uh bringing about the end of a sort of worthy adversary, but actually I think the honour he's really referring to is by way of his own perceived exceptionalism and the perceived exceptionalism of his of his presidency. For Trump, this is as much a personal legacy issue. I think it is only a personal legacy legacy issue as much as it is about Cuba. Of course, Cuba has been the most physically present political counterweight to the USA since 1959, only 90 miles away from Florida. And yeah, it's a short distance um and it's a long, long time that it's been that it's been there perceived to be sort of snubbing its nose up at the at the much more powerful great imperial power to the north. But I I maintain that of course I may be wrong, but um that there's very little that you can can be conceived at the moment, very little in the way of context which allows Cuba in its current shape to survive uh what's taking place outside of its waters.