Russian Oil Arrives in Cuba

Latin America Correspondent Jon Bonfiglio speaks to Henry Bonsu for Times Radio. 

Transcript

Henry Bonsu 0:00

Taking you around the world and to Cuba now, where a second delivery of Russian oil is set to arrive just days after Moscow delivered almost 700,000 barrels to alleviate its long-term allies' energy crisis. Cuba is under a crippling US fuel blockade, but was granted a waiver for Tuesday's oil delivery for humanitarian reasons. The Trump administration said it will assess deliveries on a case-by-case basis. Well, let's speak to Latin America analyst Jon Bonfiglio about the impact this aid may have on the people of Cuba. Jon, welcome back. How much of a breakthrough do you think this is for the people of Cuba? They're really suffering great shortages, including of oil. 700,000 barrels, it sounds a lot, but what do you think we'll be able to do?

Jon Bonfiglio 0:49

Yeah, I mean, and all of those shortages really flow from this um from this blockade. Um it's it's important, it's very important in the in the short term. Uh my understanding is that the the delivery of Russian oil is going to be able to um to fuel Cuba uh for all of its external oil needs, because it does produce some of its own oil for um for certain industries, but for all of its external oil needs, it's going to be able to um to allow them to subsist for a two-week period. So it's a key short-term factor, but it's also worth bearing in mind that, of course, this blockade has been going on for nine eight plus uh eight to ten weeks now. So uh it feeds a shortfall. What Cuba needs more than anything is, of course, ongoing uh fluidity around uh its oil access rather than a sort of a single shop.

Henry Bonsu 1:37

Yeah. And what about Trump's language here in justifying uh the suspension, uh, briefly, or on a case by case basis, of the blockade? He said this Cuba's finished, they have a bad regime, they have very bad and corrupt leadership, and whether or not they get a bolt of oil, it's not going to matter. Um, kind of a shift from the absolutist position he took um just about eight or so weeks ago.

Jon Bonfiglio 2:01

It is. It's it's very much a sort of a wafting of the fly as a question there. I think there is, um, I mean, of course, you know, what what Trump says and what's actually going on underneath the surface is is a generally a bit of a difference between the two of them. I think the allowing of this Russian oil tanker through um is actually worth sort of scratching the surface of. And I think the first and simplest uh explanation is the you know, the famous Occam's Razor explanation, which what's most straightforward is is closest to the truth. And that's an explanation which resides in a four-letter word, which is Iran. Quite simply, there is limited bandwidth, even for the US, given the war in Iran, and even the Trump administration recognizes its limited capacity and escalation elsewhere, and it's not willing to get into that. Um, and then the second thing I think is it is worth looking at related events which have been taking place and which perhaps don't really receive the light of day in the media. I mean, uh the Cuban government has recently released prisoners, it started opening up its its economy, and just in the last um uh 24, 36 hours, an FBI team has been allowed on the island, and that's important. They didn't just go onto the island, they were allowed onto the island by the Cuban authorities to investigate the fatal shootings a few weeks ago of Cuban exiles on a US-flagged speedboat. In short, the Cuban um administration regime has issued uh significant concessions in the in the last few weeks. And so the US admission of the Russian oil tanker, I think, has also has to be read in this relative thaw of those actions. What I would say, though, is uh I think there's little doubt that this is a pause and not a shift uh in policies, although some commentators have seen it as being uh sort of a U-turn, a 108-degree shift on how the US is dealing with with Cuba, an intent on dealing with Cuba. My reading of the situation is that it just has limited capacity and it's gonna come back right into um uh Cuba's gonna come back right into its side. It's only a few days ago that Donald Trump in um in Miami reiterated its military interests in um in bringing about the end of the current uh Cuban administration.

Henry Bonsu 4:07

Yeah. And what about uh the uh Nuestra America, the convoy of boats? I think two of them filled with humanitarian supplies. I mean, we had the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn go down to Cuba uh a week or so ago to try and uh get some much needed aid to the people of the island. And the boats disappeared for a few days, but apparently now they've been located and the aid was delivered.

Jon Bonfiglio 4:29

Yeah, a couple of boats, a couple of sailboats did disappear, and then were located by the Mexican um uh Navy just off the coast of Cuba. I think the thing about it's worth comparing the this flotilla of uh humanitarian aid with uh with a Gaza flotilla. Ultimately, there is limited to capacity to what these vessels can carry. Really, what they're doing is testing the blockade. And of course, there's a big difference, I think, between the Israeli interception of those flotillas and what took place there, with the fact that these um the sailboats that were headed to uh to Cuba were allowed to arrive. Ultimately, does it make a difference to your average uh Cuban and does it give them sort of succour and relief? I mean, to a very limited extent, but it's definitely not, they definitely have no great carrying capacity. Uh, what they were trying to achieve was a US intervention, and the US decided against that.

Henry Bonsu 5:18

Yeah, and and uh just finally, Jon, so we did look at the Latin American mainland and uh to Venezuela, which Donald Trump thinks he is the overlord of. And um, apparently the US has lifted sanctions on the acting president Delcy Rodriguez. Um, how significant is that?

Jon Bonfiglio 5:35

Well, it is significant in the sense that, of course, um what it reveals is that Delcy Rodriguez is um is a is a puppet leader in in Venezuela and is being brought into the fold of uh US policy making and economic drivers based on her continued acquiescence to open up the the Venezuelan, in particular oil fields, but also all um virgin Venezuelan economies to um to US acquisition. So you know that that proceeds a pace, and I think it is important thinking about Cuba, it's not an isolated example, Venezuela, to continue thinking about Venezuela as a paradigm for how the Trump administration will continue to focus on Latin America. The main driver is always has been and will continue to be economic.

Henry Bonsu 6:26

You do wonder what the regime loyalists, the people who until January were by Maduro's side, uh, will be thinking of this. Uh are they just going along with it? Or does some of them feel, well, no, this is terrible. This is a betrayal of the revolution.

Jon Bonfiglio 6:41

Well, I mean, I think um the thing about the revolution is that anybody who had sort of a um a serious uh sort of values-led belief in the revolution left that administration quite quite a long time ago. I mean, the the the wolves entered uh, you know, alongside Maduro, invited by uh Maduro, they entered uh the Venezuelan government quite a number of years back. And so I think it's pretty uncontroversial to say that the the levers of power in Venezuela for a long time now have been controlled by nominal socialists, but actually um uh hugely corrupt administration that was interesting, interested primarily in using socialism to feather its own nests rather than actually sort of bringing equality to the Venezuelan people.

Henry Bonsu 7:26

I don't know how to say plus in Spanish. Something siempre, Jon. Something siempre. Yeah, absolutely. Jon Bonfiglio, thank you very much indeed for joining us on Times Radio.