Beginner's Mind
Discover the Secrets of Deep Tech Success with Christian Soschner
Discover the strategies and mindsets that transform cutting-edge deep tech ideas into thriving businesses. Christian Soschner delves into the world of deep tech, exploring how entrepreneurs and investors build value and navigate the unique challenges of breakthrough industries.
Each episode features candid conversations with top investors, industry disruptors, and insightful book reviews – dissecting the strategies behind success, observed through my lens, shaped by 35+ years of building organizations and insights from ultrarunning, chess, and martial arts.
Expect:
- Investor Insights: Learn from experts who fund innovation, identifying opportunities and mitigating risk.
- Entrepreneurial Journeys: Go behind-the-scenes with founders turning deep tech concepts into impactful companies.
- Relevant Book Reviews: Discover actionable wisdom from biographies, strategy guides, and thought-provoking reads.
- Focus on Impact: Understand the business models, investment strategies, and market trends that fuel deep tech's potential for real-world impact.
Whether you're building the next big thing, investing in it, or keen on understanding this transformative space, this podcast is your guide to success in the world of deep tech.
Join the community and shape the conversation: https://lsg2g.substack.com/
Beginner's Mind
EP 156 - Janos Pasztor: The Most Controversial Fix for Climate Change
What if the only way to save the planet... is to cool it?
Not figuratively—literally.
Because the heatwaves, floods, and fires you’ve seen so far? They’re just the beginning.
🌍 Emissions keep rising. Global cooperation is slowing. And the window to act is closing fast.
Now, world leaders are quietly weighing a radical idea: Should we artificially cool Earth before it’s too late?
💥 In this explosive episode, we dive into the most controversial climate strategy on the table today: solar radiation modification.
But who decides how much cooling is “enough”?
What happens if we act too late—or worse, too soon?
📌 In this episode, Janos Pasztor—former UN Assistant Secretary-General for Climate Change and climate advisor to Ban Ki-moon—breaks his silence on the plans world leaders are only now beginning to confront.
🎧 Watch now to uncover:
1️⃣ Why geoengineering may soon become a global necessity—not a fringe idea.
2️⃣ What governments aren’t telling you about unilateral climate interventions.
3️⃣ The ethical, political, and scientific minefield behind planetary cooling.
4️⃣ Why some scientists say this tech could save millions—and others call it madness.
5️⃣ What it will take to govern Earth’s thermostat before someone does it alone.
👤 About Janos Pasztor:
With nearly 50 years of experience in climate policy, diplomacy, and governance, Pasztor has shaped global climate strategy from inside the UN and beyond. From the 1992 Earth Summit to the corridors of the UN Security Council, he’s been advising heads of state on how to confront the world’s most complex crisis—and now, he’s sharing what’s coming next.
💡 Quotes to Challenge Your Thinking:
(00:08:41) “We must ask: is it time to start cooling parts of the planet?”
(01:21:07) “Stratospheric aerosol injection could cool the planet—yet we barely understand its consequences.”
(01:11:03) “The real question is whether capitalism can evolve beyond its dependence on resource extraction.”
(02:24:41) “Three degrees of warming is cuckoo land—it’s beyond what humanity can realistically adapt to.”
(02:47:03) “Climate policy isn't just climate—it’s about everything we do as a society.”
⏱️ Timestamps:
(00:04:12) Urgent Climate Crisis: Rising Emissions Explained
(00:10:15) Inconvenient Truth 2.0: What We Missed
(00:18:32) China’s Green Tech Revolution Unpacked
(00:26:20) Can Climate Forums Deliver Real Action?
(00:32:50) Designing Just, Achievable Climate Goals Globally
(00:40:06) How Growth Triggers Today’s Polycrisis
(00:45:08) Rethinking Economies for Sustainable Living
(00:53:00) Why We Need Mixed Energy Strategies
(01:17:24) Geoengineering vs Terraforming: Climate Futures Debate
(01:26:20) Who Funds Carbon Removal Technologies?
(01:37:06) Why We May Need to Cool Earth
(01:40:41) Warming Beyond 3°C: What’s at Risk
(01:48:02) How Fossil Fuels Hide True Heat
(02:08:00) The Hidden Risks of Cheap Climate Fixes
(02:24:41) 3 Degrees Warming: Scientifically Unmanageable?
🔔 Help Us Grow
If this conversation gave you insight, urgency, or a new perspective—help us keep it going.
Subscribe. Leave a comment. Share it with someone who cares.
Every single action helps us invite world-class thinkers, spark deeper debates, and bring you the conversations that actually matter.
🎧 Watch now—and be part of the climate conversation no one dares to start.
Join the Podcast Newsletter: Link
00:00:00:00 - 00:00:42:14
Christian Soschner
What if the only way to survive the next decades is to kill the planet? Not metaphorically? I ask this literally because despite Record-Breaking wildfires, floods, and heatwaves, emissions continue to rise and action continues to stall the truth. We know this silence. For 30 years we have had the tools, treaties and technology. Yet we are still waiting. And now, as a result, some leaders are quietly asking, should we start cooling Earth ourselves?
00:00:42:14 - 00:00:44:03
Janos Pasztor
and some are saying.
00:00:44:03 - 00:00:45:21
Janos Pasztor
That we need to then.
00:00:45:23 - 00:00:48:24
Janos Pasztor
Cool the planet, perhaps as a temporary.
00:00:49:05 - 00:00:50:04
Janos Pasztor
Emergency.
00:00:50:04 - 00:00:51:12
Janos Pasztor
Measure.
00:00:51:14 - 00:00:52:13
Janos Pasztor
Until we
00:00:52:13 - 00:01:14:14
Christian Soschner
The problem isn't just technology, it's trust, governments and moral responsibility. And if we get this wrong, if we act too fast or wait too long, we may trigger consequences far worse than the warming we are trying to fix.
00:01:14:14 - 00:01:16:03
Janos Pasztor
Cooling the planet?
00:01:16:05 - 00:01:20:23
Janos Pasztor
And some scientists say, yes, we can and we should. And others are saying,
00:01:20:23 - 00:01:22:12
Janos Pasztor
We should not act.
00:01:22:12 - 00:01:23:21
Janos Pasztor
Like gods
00:01:23:21 - 00:01:33:18
Christian Soschner
So what would it take to govern the global thermostat? Who gets to decide how much cooling is enough and what's too much?
00:01:33:18 - 00:01:38:12
Janos Pasztor
And then once, even if we do decide who is going to set the global.
00:01:38:18 - 00:01:40:23
Janos Pasztor
Thermostat, maybe your country
00:01:40:23 - 00:02:24:01
Christian Soschner
In this episode, I speak with Janusz Pastore, a former UN assistant secretary general for climate change, adviser to Ban Ki moon and executive director of the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative. For nearly five decades, he stood at the frontline of global climate diplomacy, quietly shaping the conversations behind closed doors. But before we dive in, one quick note if this episode sparks a new perspective or even just makes you pause, consider following the show, leaving a review, or sharing it with someone you respect.
00:02:24:03 - 00:02:51:12
Christian Soschner
Every single lecture from the listeners helps the team rich moments attract more world class guests and bring you conversations that matter at the level you think. The more momentum we built, the deeper we can go. If you're ready to hear what world leaders are only just beginning to discuss, and why the next climate decision might change the course of history, this conversation is for you.
00:02:51:12 - 00:03:18:14
Christian Soschner
And usually people people like it. Yeah. It's really good to have you on the podcast and on the show. And I love diving into this. I think this hot topic, came a change. And since you're the expert and I'm no expert in this space, I can take the the role of a devil's advocate. Because when I look at social media these days, I have, this, this, this, this two perspectives.
00:03:18:16 - 00:03:38:22
Christian Soschner
One is pro and the other one is contra. And the hope with you that you can help me understand the space better because you are very, very deep, deep into this area. And let me start you let me start with the first question to you. What's been on your mind recently when you think about climate change?
00:03:38:24 - 00:03:39:08
Janos Pasztor
Well, first
00:03:39:08 - 00:04:04:01
Janos Pasztor
of all, thank you very much for having me on, on this podcast, and I really look forward to the conversation we're going to have today on a on a topic that is is very challenging. And and you asked what's been on top of my mind about what's been on the top of my mind is that, global emissions, of carbon dioxide continues to rise and so do the average global temperatures.
00:04:04:01 - 00:04:06:02
Janos Pasztor
So and so the, the, the the.
00:04:06:02 - 00:04:09:18
Janos Pasztor
Impacts are increasingly significa and and sometimes catastrophic.
00:04:09:18 - 00:04:13:02
Janos Pasztor
Impacts of this climate, warming.
00:04:13:04 - 00:04:25:03
Janos Pasztor
And the world is not ready. It's happening. It's going to be worse. Governments, intergovernmental processes and also non-state actors are simply not addressing this issue at all or not.
00:04:25:03 - 00:04:26:08
Janos Pasztor
Sufficiently so when.
00:04:26:08 - 00:04:29:10
Janos Pasztor
You put all this together, it's it worries me.
00:04:29:10 - 00:04:32:05
Janos Pasztor
And that's what's on my mind.
00:04:32:08 - 00:04:35:16
Christian Soschner
Is it really gets bad.
00:04:35:18 - 00:04:36:15
Janos Pasztor
It is pretty
00:04:36:15 - 00:04:42:11
Janos Pasztor
bad. It is pretty bad in the sense that I mean, just look around. Look around what's happening in the world.
00:04:42:11 - 00:04:47:23
Janos Pasztor
In terms of impacts. Forget the numbers that the 1.5 degree or two or whatever.
00:04:47:23 - 00:04:51:20
Janos Pasztor
But look at the the the impacts. Not so long ago.
00:04:51:22 - 00:05:11:22
Janos Pasztor
A third of Pakistan was under water and it was flooded because before it there was drought. It hardened the soil. And then came the flash floods. We couldn't be absorbed by the soil. Look at the, wildfires in Los Angeles. Look at the drought in South Africa and in Brazil.
00:05:11:24 - 00:05:25:01
Janos Pasztor
These things are all happening. And science is increasingly good at saying to what extent climate change is maybe not necessarily the cause, but has certainly contributed to the intensity or the.
00:05:25:01 - 00:05:28:21
Janos Pasztor
Magnitude, or even sometimes the frequency of these issues.
00:05:28:21 - 00:05:40:11
Janos Pasztor
So this is how bad it is, and this is how bad it is at, 1.3 degrees increase of average global temperatures over.
00:05:40:13 - 00:05:42:03
Janos Pasztor
Historical.
00:05:42:05 - 00:05:45:21
Janos Pasztor
And it's going to go a lot higher. It's, now.
00:05:45:23 - 00:05:46:19
Janos Pasztor
It looks like.
00:05:46:23 - 00:05:49:05
Janos Pasztor
It's going to go to something like, two.
00:05:49:05 - 00:06:07:07
Janos Pasztor
Point 6 to 3.1 degrees, according to, the UN environment program's estimates, which were, of course, analyzed before, the US elections and maybe we'll talk about that at some point, the impacts on climate change. But there is a lot. So.
00:06:07:09 - 00:06:11:12
Janos Pasztor
That's the, that's the, the, the current, state of affairs.
00:06:11:12 - 00:06:14:24
Janos Pasztor
And so, when you put all the impacts together.
00:06:15:02 - 00:06:20:12
Janos Pasztor
But where we are heading as a world, then, frankly.
00:06:20:14 - 00:06:22:01
Janos Pasztor
It is quite worrying.
00:06:22:07 - 00:06:23:01
Janos Pasztor
And and actually.
00:06:23:01 - 00:06:26:19
Janos Pasztor
I would add to it one more because.
00:06:26:21 - 00:06:28:22
Janos Pasztor
What what I see well, what.
00:06:28:22 - 00:06:36:02
Janos Pasztor
One sees is this, this, level of impacts, and the fact that emissions are still rising.
00:06:36:08 - 00:06:38:16
Janos Pasztor
And then you see that even the good.
00:06:38:22 - 00:06:42:01
Janos Pasztor
The good countries in terms of climate response.
00:06:42:04 - 00:06:42:21
Janos Pasztor
Are actually.
00:06:42:21 - 00:06:44:19
Janos Pasztor
Not doing really enough.
00:06:44:21 - 00:06:55:19
Janos Pasztor
But then there are some, that are actually beginning to go backwards at a time when we should be going forward even faster. So when you put all these together, it is quite worrying.
00:06:55:19 - 00:07:01:01
Janos Pasztor
And it's something that certainly, makes me worried that I'm not the only one.
00:07:01:21 - 00:07:13:24
Christian Soschner
One question before I continue with the other questions are, are you failing to pull out so that recent political events into our conversation because you said we can talk about a little bit later how the US elections plays into climate change? Is is okay with you?
00:07:14:01 - 00:07:14:07
Janos Pasztor
Of
00:07:14:07 - 00:07:15:07
Janos Pasztor
course I am. I mean, these are.
00:07:15:07 - 00:07:16:06
Janos Pasztor
These are very important.
00:07:16:06 - 00:07:18:13
Janos Pasztor
Issues that have to be addressed.
00:07:18:16 - 00:07:34:08
Christian Soschner
So that's good. For the listeners who wants to jump off quickly from, from from this, live stream and say, okay, five minutes, I have had enough. I come back, maybe later. What are the three things that what are the three core messages that you want them to remember?
00:07:34:13 - 00:07:35:18
Janos Pasztor
Okay, so.
00:07:35:18 - 00:07:37:07
Janos Pasztor
I think in terms of three.
00:07:37:07 - 00:07:38:24
Janos Pasztor
Points, first of all.
00:07:39:04 - 00:07:42:03
Janos Pasztor
We really have to accelerate.
00:07:42:05 - 00:07:59:11
Janos Pasztor
Mitigation. That is to say emission reductions, carbon capture and storage and even carbon dioxide removal, but substantially and do it much faster. So that's one to to actually reduce the problem to start with or putting more greenhouse gases.
00:07:59:11 - 00:08:04:00
Janos Pasztor
The second one is that, we also have to really.
00:08:04:00 - 00:08:08:19
Janos Pasztor
Substantially accelerate adaptation, to what's coming.
00:08:08:21 - 00:08:15:05
Janos Pasztor
Recognizing that there are limits to adaptation. And then the third and this is important, then we'll talk.
00:08:15:05 - 00:08:17:01
Janos Pasztor
About the details later, I presume.
00:08:17:01 - 00:08:26:19
Janos Pasztor
But we have to consider whether the time has come to start pooling parts or the whole planet until we.
00:08:26:19 - 00:08:30:15
Janos Pasztor
Finish the decarbonization, of this world.
00:08:30:17 - 00:08:33:06
Janos Pasztor
That's a question that is very difficult, but.
00:08:33:06 - 00:08:34:19
Janos Pasztor
Something we need to deal with.
00:08:34:19 - 00:08:41:24
Janos Pasztor
So emission reductions accelerate. Second, the adaptation we have to accelerate. And thirdly, think about.
00:08:41:24 - 00:08:46:07
Janos Pasztor
Whether or not we should start cooling the planet.
00:08:46:12 - 00:09:06:02
Christian Soschner
That's that's an interesting point, especially the last one. So it's all about decarbonization. Basically this is one of the root causes of the problem. But I enjoy it. When I Pripyat our episode was to stick. It is one sentence that you used in the preparation material that I thought into the title of our recording of a live stream.
00:09:06:04 - 00:09:15:10
Christian Soschner
It's The Inconvenient Truth 2.0. Can you explain for listeners what you mean with this term?
00:09:15:16 - 00:09:30:20
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. So some of the listeners, maybe old enough to remember, Al Gore's, film, The Inconvenient Truth, and that was, quite some time ago now. And at that time, the focus of the film was.
00:09:31:00 - 00:09:32:10
Janos Pasztor
Is there climate change?
00:09:32:15 - 00:09:37:05
Janos Pasztor
And if there is, who is doing it and what are the things we can do about it?
00:09:37:07 - 00:09:43:00
Janos Pasztor
So and there was a lot of, well, a lot of positive reactions to that movie, but there were also.
00:09:43:00 - 00:09:47:20
Janos Pasztor
A lot of negative reactions to that movie. And he was trying to say that this issue of climate.
00:09:47:20 - 00:09:52:08
Janos Pasztor
Change is inconvenient. We don't need to talk about it now, many.
00:09:52:08 - 00:10:06:17
Janos Pasztor
Years later, we have come to a new situation while there are still climate deniers. And that's a real problem. But, fundamentally, the world has accepted climate change and broadly speaking, the kinds of things to do about it.
00:10:06:17 - 00:10:07:16
Janos Pasztor
But this.
00:10:07:16 - 00:10:09:22
Janos Pasztor
Issue that we're talking about here.
00:10:09:24 - 00:10:10:17
Janos Pasztor
Is not being.
00:10:10:17 - 00:10:11:12
Janos Pasztor
Talked about.
00:10:11:12 - 00:10:18:23
Janos Pasztor
And I say this, this is like inconvenient to 2.0 because governments and other leaders, they don't feel.
00:10:18:23 - 00:10:20:10
Janos Pasztor
Comfortable talking about these.
00:10:20:10 - 00:10:22:13
Janos Pasztor
Issues, maybe because they don't.
00:10:22:13 - 00:10:23:19
Janos Pasztor
See their solutions.
00:10:23:24 - 00:10:25:04
Janos Pasztor
Maybe because they have.
00:10:25:04 - 00:10:32:08
Janos Pasztor
Invested so much in simply talking about reaching 1.5°C. And we'll come to that, perhaps, of what that means.
00:10:32:14 - 00:10:36:16
Janos Pasztor
But they're so focused on this that they're unable to or unwilling to.
00:10:36:16 - 00:10:37:22
Janos Pasztor
Go beyond and say.
00:10:38:02 - 00:10:39:20
Janos Pasztor
Clearly, we're.
00:10:39:22 - 00:10:48:22
Janos Pasztor
Heading to problematic warming and we need to deal with it. It's inconvenient. They're not sure what to do about it. So I call it inconvenient to 2.0.
00:10:49:13 - 00:10:53:11
Christian Soschner
Is it really that long ago, this movie, al Gore, if this wasn't was 90s, wasn't it?
00:10:53:13 - 00:10:55:24
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. Yeah. It was it was early 90s.
00:10:55:24 - 00:11:01:06
Janos Pasztor
So don't ask me for the exact year, but it's a long time for.
00:11:01:08 - 00:11:05:16
Christian Soschner
The I am in the early 90s, I was in, in middle school, so it's basically.
00:11:05:18 - 00:11:07:22
Janos Pasztor
Yeah, well, I was already, working.
00:11:07:22 - 00:11:12:10
Janos Pasztor
On the climate issues, but, anyway, that was that was quite some time ago.
00:11:12:12 - 00:11:13:02
Christian Soschner
So you have a.
00:11:13:02 - 00:11:15:04
Janos Pasztor
Lot of, a lot of things have changed since then.
00:11:15:06 - 00:11:34:08
Christian Soschner
And so can can we, make a run through about the political perception of climate change? You have decades of experience in that space, especially working with governments. How has this the handling of the topic, climate change changed from the late 80s, up to 2025.
00:11:34:10 - 00:11:35:06
Janos Pasztor
So
00:11:35:06 - 00:11:43:02
Janos Pasztor
everything has changed, really. And and not just in those, decades. But even if I look back just in the.
00:11:43:02 - 00:11:51:10
Janos Pasztor
Last ten years since the Paris Agreement, so much has changed. And, I think it's difficult to go through everything, but.
00:11:51:10 - 00:11:52:09
Janos Pasztor
Maybe a.
00:11:52:09 - 00:11:56:17
Janos Pasztor
Couple of examples. So let me start with the, the, the US.
00:11:56:17 - 00:11:57:14
Janos Pasztor
Because the US.
00:11:57:14 - 00:12:07:21
Janos Pasztor
Is, the actor, it has it is still the largest, one of the largest and leaders worldwide. And certainly per capita basis, it has the technology and money.
00:12:07:21 - 00:12:12:22
Janos Pasztor
So potentially it's a it's a super important country. If you look back a little bit.
00:12:12:22 - 00:12:14:24
Janos Pasztor
To the history, the older.
00:12:14:24 - 00:12:17:10
Janos Pasztor
George H.W. Bush was the one.
00:12:17:12 - 00:12:21:16
Janos Pasztor
Who signed and got the UN Framework Convention treaty ratified.
00:12:21:16 - 00:12:24:10
Janos Pasztor
So it was a Republican president.
00:12:24:12 - 00:12:27:01
Janos Pasztor
Then some years later, his son,
00:12:27:01 - 00:12:28:16
Janos Pasztor
George W.
00:12:28:18 - 00:12:30:03
Janos Pasztor
Bush.
00:12:30:05 - 00:12:31:09
Janos Pasztor
Did not even.
00:12:31:09 - 00:12:39:23
Janos Pasztor
Try to get the Kyoto Protocol, ratification in the Senate. They just simply didn't say that they were not going to do that.
00:12:39:23 - 00:12:41:06
Janos Pasztor
And I think since.
00:12:41:06 - 00:12:47:07
Janos Pasztor
The Kyoto Protocol, things have, gone quite a bit downhill.
00:12:47:09 - 00:12:53:09
Janos Pasztor
Then in this period, we have increasingly visible, strong.
00:12:53:11 - 00:12:57:00
Janos Pasztor
And effective climate deniers who have an impact.
00:12:57:02 - 00:12:59:05
Janos Pasztor
And these are, these climate.
00:12:59:05 - 00:13:08:09
Janos Pasztor
Deniers are well organized and they are, well, well-funded. And, there's good, evidence, studies, documented evidence of what is happening.
00:13:08:09 - 00:13:13:19
Janos Pasztor
But they have been having a very strong impact. And, then we we got to.
00:13:13:19 - 00:13:14:21
Janos Pasztor
The Paris Agreement.
00:13:14:21 - 00:13:15:23
Janos Pasztor
Which in fact.
00:13:15:23 - 00:13:21:07
Janos Pasztor
Was quite a weak agreement, but it was the best thing we could achieve at that time.
00:13:21:09 - 00:13:24:20
Janos Pasztor
And and then it gets even worse. During.
00:13:24:20 - 00:13:33:10
Janos Pasztor
The first, phase, Trump Trump's first, presidency, U.S. leaves the Paris Agreement.
00:13:33:10 - 00:13:33:21
Janos Pasztor
And.
00:13:33:23 - 00:13:36:10
Janos Pasztor
Then Biden comes back and makes a real.
00:13:36:10 - 00:13:39:16
Janos Pasztor
Effort to try. And for the first time, actually, America.
00:13:39:21 - 00:13:44:20
Janos Pasztor
Really started doing something positive on, to fight climate.
00:13:44:20 - 00:13:47:11
Janos Pasztor
Change. And then comes Trump for the second time, he.
00:13:47:11 - 00:13:48:05
Janos Pasztor
Leaves the Paris.
00:13:48:05 - 00:13:51:06
Janos Pasztor
Agreement again. And really is trying to turn the.
00:13:51:06 - 00:13:58:23
Janos Pasztor
Clock into history backward. For example, on, on renewable energy and on coal use and things like that. So.
00:13:59:00 - 00:14:03:01
Janos Pasztor
This is just a us and then we have let's just.
00:14:03:01 - 00:14:11:01
Janos Pasztor
Take another country, China, rather important country, another, big emitter. It's the absolute largest emitter as a.
00:14:11:01 - 00:14:12:04
Janos Pasztor
Country, not on.
00:14:12:04 - 00:14:12:11
Janos Pasztor
A per.
00:14:12:11 - 00:14:18:06
Janos Pasztor
Capita basis. And I remember at the beginning of the UN negotiations.
00:14:18:08 - 00:14:24:16
Janos Pasztor
China used to have 1 or 2 delegates while countries like the US had.
00:14:24:16 - 00:14:26:18
Janos Pasztor
Many, many. Now China has.
00:14:26:18 - 00:14:33:09
Janos Pasztor
The largest delegation, to, the UN Framework Convention, meetings.
00:14:33:11 - 00:14:35:21
Janos Pasztor
And China has a clear long.
00:14:35:21 - 00:14:37:08
Janos Pasztor
Term strategy on climate.
00:14:37:08 - 00:14:38:09
Janos Pasztor
Change and is actually.
00:14:38:09 - 00:14:43:04
Janos Pasztor
Implementing that strategy. And it's not perfect. I, I don't want to put it that way.
00:14:43:04 - 00:14:44:06
Janos Pasztor
But it's been.
00:14:44:08 - 00:14:46:16
Janos Pasztor
In place for some time and they're moving forward.
00:14:46:22 - 00:14:47:03
Janos Pasztor
And.
00:14:47:03 - 00:14:57:17
Janos Pasztor
They're implementing it. And in that as part of that strategy, China has become the absolute world leader on suitable takes on wind, on electric.
00:14:57:17 - 00:14:58:12
Janos Pasztor
Vehicles.
00:14:58:17 - 00:15:01:13
Janos Pasztor
And so on and so forth. And,
00:15:01:15 - 00:15:04:14
Janos Pasztor
Yeah, it's it's it's quite a contrasting.
00:15:04:14 - 00:15:10:08
Janos Pasztor
Development. If I can look at the G to the, to a lot of large countries now.
00:15:10:10 - 00:15:12:02
Janos Pasztor
The third example I think.
00:15:12:02 - 00:15:19:21
Janos Pasztor
Is, is linked to what I just said about China, but it's the price of solar photovoltaic. And solar photovoltaic electricity.
00:15:19:23 - 00:15:20:23
Janos Pasztor
Is so.
00:15:20:23 - 00:15:23:19
Janos Pasztor
Much lower than anybody thought it would be the case.
00:15:23:24 - 00:15:26:18
Janos Pasztor
So that it has actually become pretty much the.
00:15:26:18 - 00:15:29:17
Janos Pasztor
Cheapest technology available in most countries, not.
00:15:29:17 - 00:15:30:05
Janos Pasztor
Everywhere.
00:15:30:11 - 00:15:37:19
Janos Pasztor
In some of the developing countries, the the risk factor comes in, and so that makes it a bit more expensive.
00:15:37:19 - 00:15:38:11
Janos Pasztor
But generally.
00:15:38:11 - 00:15:44:22
Janos Pasztor
Speaking, solar, electricity is the cheapest technology today. And that's.
00:15:44:22 - 00:15:45:16
Janos Pasztor
Fantastic.
00:15:45:16 - 00:15:55:10
Janos Pasztor
The problem is, of course, it's not enough because electricity is only some 10% or something of the total energy use. So we still had the others. We need to either electrify everything.
00:15:55:10 - 00:15:57:18
Janos Pasztor
Else or.
00:15:57:20 - 00:15:59:16
Janos Pasztor
We have that other problem.
00:15:59:18 - 00:16:01:13
Janos Pasztor
And then I take one more.
00:16:01:13 - 00:16:02:17
Janos Pasztor
Example and.
00:16:02:22 - 00:16:06:19
Janos Pasztor
That's the, the, the economic and political.
00:16:06:19 - 00:16:08:19
Janos Pasztor
Realignments in the world.
00:16:08:21 - 00:16:10:04
Janos Pasztor
Look at the.
00:16:10:06 - 00:16:18:14
Janos Pasztor
So Asia, for example, has evolved over the last decade or two, into massive economic.
00:16:18:14 - 00:16:20:24
Janos Pasztor
Power and also increasing political.
00:16:20:24 - 00:16:21:22
Janos Pasztor
Strength.
00:16:21:24 - 00:16:26:21
Janos Pasztor
And, and, and in a sense, it is, you know, it's not necessarily true.
00:16:26:21 - 00:16:29:03
Janos Pasztor
That let's say Europe or North America have.
00:16:29:03 - 00:16:32:06
Janos Pasztor
Absolutely fallen down, but certainly.
00:16:32:06 - 00:16:38:00
Janos Pasztor
Relatively the relative political, economic weight has moved, to Asia. And I.
00:16:38:00 - 00:16:38:22
Janos Pasztor
Think that's that's.
00:16:38:22 - 00:16:44:22
Janos Pasztor
Has a significant impact on the way we look at climate and the way we deal with climate change as well.
00:16:46:10 - 00:17:07:20
Christian Soschner
I have, two questions and one remark to the parts that you just just said, even China is pretty impressive. I did, a trip to China in 2016, and it was so interesting. I had this this picture of 1989 China that, went through the newspaper with students fighting against the army, and it was China was portrayed as, a poor development region.
00:17:07:22 - 00:17:27:23
Christian Soschner
And this was the picture from school that carried with me for decades. And they had traveled to China. It was Shanghai, Guangzhou. So this area and we arrived in a hotel in the night and the just use the elevator was tired. You think it was 2 a.m.? Something went to bed in the morning. I got up, opened the curtains and looked down and thought, oh, this is pretty high.
00:17:27:23 - 00:17:53:13
Christian Soschner
It's a pretty high building. And it just started looking up, up, up. And there was an even higher building and it felt to me it was a trip to the future in 2016 already. Just when I looked around in China mobile phones, it felt to media far ahead, technological wise. And, it's a huge country. And the adoption towards, solar wind is impressive, but also nuclear.
00:17:53:16 - 00:18:04:21
Christian Soschner
Is this perception, right, when we talk about China, that China is puts a lot of effort into advancing its technology and becoming climate neutral? Is the right perception of the country?
00:18:04:21 - 00:18:22:15
Janos Pasztor
I think it is. I mean, it's it's I am, a frequent visitor to China. I, I'm doing some, some, lecturing and some other activities, universities and so on. But I've been following the developments in China since 1987, actually. And,
00:18:23:13 - 00:18:28:18
Janos Pasztor
Every time I go back, I say, oh, my God, what happened here? It's changed completely, you know.
00:18:28:21 - 00:18:31:24
Janos Pasztor
And and even even within a period of.
00:18:31:24 - 00:18:33:00
Janos Pasztor
Of, six.
00:18:33:00 - 00:18:34:02
Janos Pasztor
Months.
00:18:34:04 - 00:18:57:15
Janos Pasztor
You go back and you find a change. So, I remember it last year, 2024, in April, I spent, two weeks in, in China. And I remember coming out of the Shanghai railway station, and, it's how many electric cars I saw, the electric cars have a green number plate, so it's very easy to identify them.
00:18:57:17 - 00:19:03:07
Janos Pasztor
I was there back in November. Same place, same railway station. You come on. And you only.
00:19:03:07 - 00:19:04:20
Janos Pasztor
See electric cars.
00:19:04:22 - 00:19:09:03
Janos Pasztor
Nothing else. You know, it's this is the kind of change that you see.
00:19:09:05 - 00:19:12:13
Janos Pasztor
In such a short time. But coming back to the strategy.
00:19:12:13 - 00:19:15:14
Janos Pasztor
So China has a clear strategy.
00:19:15:14 - 00:19:18:20
Janos Pasztor
To go on this,
00:19:18:22 - 00:19:21:17
Janos Pasztor
Green technology renewables circular.
00:19:21:21 - 00:19:30:08
Janos Pasztor
That's what they're working on. And that's what, the central government and, and local governments are trying to make happen.
00:19:30:10 - 00:19:32:20
Janos Pasztor
It's not perfect. And they have some big problems.
00:19:32:20 - 00:19:42:12
Janos Pasztor
For example, coal use is still pretty high. And it hasn't gone down. And that's a big problem. And they have to find a political way economically, other ways.
00:19:42:14 - 00:19:48:12
Janos Pasztor
But nevertheless they have this clear strategy forward. And it's fantastic. And you see the results.
00:19:48:15 - 00:20:19:09
Christian Soschner
So China has a clear strategy for let's let's work a little bit on the problem you mentioned before. You talked about the US and to shift in US politics, from the old George W Bush was as a Republican, pro, environmental friendly. Then it changed completely before Biden came back and then Trump. But when I as, as a not so well-informed person about, about all this capital issues, open social media these days, they have these two extremes, have the two extremes.
00:20:19:13 - 00:20:40:17
Christian Soschner
On one side, they have these climate deniers, as you mentioned. They have pretty arguments. And then I go to another profile and that's, is there a specially specific term for people who believe in chemistry change, that you use professionally? The climate change us? I don't, I don't they were followed by the term pretty pro.
00:20:40:19 - 00:21:01:22
Christian Soschner
And they also have good, good arguments. And then I'm in the middle. And the try to understand is, okay, what do we stand in in all of this? What what's the real impact that we are causing as a human race? And where should we start? I don't know who I should believe. Is it, decide to say as climate change will lead to the extinction of human race?
00:21:01:22 - 00:21:09:01
Christian Soschner
Or is it's the other side just says, don't worry, don't worry. We can continue as we do. Nothing will happen. What's the reality?
00:21:09:04 - 00:21:11:15
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. So I think the realities.
00:21:11:15 - 00:21:13:06
Janos Pasztor
As always more complex.
00:21:13:06 - 00:21:16:10
Janos Pasztor
But I would add, first of all, I'd like to start there.
00:21:16:12 - 00:21:17:15
Janos Pasztor
One thing you said.
00:21:17:17 - 00:21:20:00
Janos Pasztor
I don't think we should, look at.
00:21:20:00 - 00:21:20:17
Janos Pasztor
This as.
00:21:20:22 - 00:21:21:07
Janos Pasztor
Two.
00:21:21:07 - 00:21:30:14
Janos Pasztor
Equal sites and we're in the middle of this, or you're in the middle, that there is equal number of people who believe in equal number of people who deny climate change.
00:21:30:14 - 00:21:33:20
Janos Pasztor
So I think that's not the case. And I don't believe it.
00:21:33:20 - 00:21:36:00
Janos Pasztor
Ever was the case.
00:21:36:02 - 00:21:36:20
Janos Pasztor
We've had a long.
00:21:36:20 - 00:21:39:00
Janos Pasztor
Period in the media. For example.
00:21:39:04 - 00:21:40:10
Janos Pasztor
They have to look.
00:21:40:10 - 00:21:41:09
Janos Pasztor
At both sides, right.
00:21:41:09 - 00:21:43:10
Janos Pasztor
So you get a sense that you have.
00:21:43:13 - 00:21:43:20
Janos Pasztor
One.
00:21:43:20 - 00:21:44:08
Janos Pasztor
Side here.
00:21:44:08 - 00:21:46:17
Janos Pasztor
One side there and they're the same size or that's.
00:21:46:23 - 00:21:50:10
Janos Pasztor
So it's not the case. I think when I look at the world.
00:21:50:10 - 00:21:56:09
Janos Pasztor
As a whole, I think the majority, the large majority of the people and of the.
00:21:56:09 - 00:21:58:05
Janos Pasztor
Governments and the private.
00:21:58:05 - 00:22:07:08
Janos Pasztor
Sector also, first of all, are clear that there is something called anthropogenic climate change, i.e. climate change caused by human activity.
00:22:07:10 - 00:22:11:09
Janos Pasztor
Okay. So I think there is very I can't give.
00:22:11:09 - 00:22:15:24
Janos Pasztor
You a number at a global level, but it is a very small minority.
00:22:16:02 - 00:22:17:12
Janos Pasztor
Who would be a climate.
00:22:17:12 - 00:22:23:00
Janos Pasztor
Denier. Unfortunately, some of them are quite active in certain political parties in certain countries.
00:22:23:00 - 00:22:24:09
Janos Pasztor
But nevertheless it's.
00:22:24:09 - 00:22:26:09
Janos Pasztor
A very small part now.
00:22:26:09 - 00:22:28:00
Janos Pasztor
Where the diversity.
00:22:28:00 - 00:22:30:09
Janos Pasztor
And speaking to to to happen is.
00:22:30:09 - 00:22:30:18
Janos Pasztor
What.
00:22:30:18 - 00:22:32:16
Janos Pasztor
Are we going to do about it?
00:22:32:18 - 00:22:38:05
Janos Pasztor
How significant you look at a potential future challenge.
00:22:38:05 - 00:22:39:24
Janos Pasztor
To the environment, to the economy.
00:22:40:01 - 00:22:42:08
Janos Pasztor
How much do you discounted, these.
00:22:42:08 - 00:22:43:04
Janos Pasztor
Kinds of questions?
00:22:43:04 - 00:22:45:07
Janos Pasztor
And there there is a, there.
00:22:45:07 - 00:22:46:10
Janos Pasztor
Are differences between.
00:22:46:10 - 00:22:49:01
Janos Pasztor
People, and between economic.
00:22:49:01 - 00:22:50:06
Janos Pasztor
Theories, between.
00:22:50:06 - 00:22:55:09
Janos Pasztor
Practical cultures and so on and so forth. And that's that's okay. And we can discuss.
00:22:55:09 - 00:22:56:07
Janos Pasztor
That in society.
00:22:56:07 - 00:22:59:20
Janos Pasztor
Right? That's not a, you know, I have my, my own personal.
00:22:59:20 - 00:23:01:19
Janos Pasztor
Views and my neighbor has his.
00:23:01:19 - 00:23:06:14
Janos Pasztor
Or her personal views, and so on, but, and it's we have countries.
00:23:06:14 - 00:23:13:13
Janos Pasztor
That their governments have evolved certain views based on the, societies that they represent.
00:23:13:15 - 00:23:21:14
Janos Pasztor
And that's okay. That's okay to have differences. And eventually we will we will find ways to move forward in ways that.
00:23:21:14 - 00:23:23:06
Janos Pasztor
Society can can accept.
00:23:23:06 - 00:23:25:20
Janos Pasztor
It. But I don't think there are too many people.
00:23:25:20 - 00:23:28:02
Janos Pasztor
Who are climate deniers.
00:23:30:01 - 00:23:34:00
Christian Soschner
Okay.
00:23:34:02 - 00:23:38:00
Christian Soschner
When?
00:23:38:02 - 00:23:57:07
Christian Soschner
How do they how should they actually face that? But why why why is this also a discussion on social media? I mean, it looks to me that we have to have these two sides. I believe what you say, but why is this also so much, so much confusion? A positive way forward, should be distributed.
00:23:57:12 - 00:23:58:24
Christian Soschner
Where does this come from?
00:23:59:01 - 00:24:00:18
Janos Pasztor
Well, this is where
00:24:00:18 - 00:24:03:23
Janos Pasztor
I, I think, again, that there may.
00:24:03:23 - 00:24:14:09
Janos Pasztor
Be a small minority of climate deniers, but they're well-organized and they're well-funded, and they put a lot of information into social media and elsewhere.
00:24:14:11 - 00:24:20:00
Janos Pasztor
And that has an impact. That's one. The other is that there are perfectly okay.
00:24:20:00 - 00:24:22:06
Janos Pasztor
And and acceptable.
00:24:22:08 - 00:24:27:08
Janos Pasztor
Differing views on how do you interpret current.
00:24:27:08 - 00:24:28:07
Janos Pasztor
Risk and future.
00:24:28:07 - 00:24:29:22
Janos Pasztor
Risk, and what do you do now.
00:24:29:22 - 00:24:32:06
Janos Pasztor
Versus the future about that risk?
00:24:32:06 - 00:24:37:14
Janos Pasztor
There are different ways of doing that. And it's not easy. And it it requires conversation.
00:24:37:14 - 00:24:41:15
Janos Pasztor
It requires certain political processes. It requires money.
00:24:41:18 - 00:24:58:02
Janos Pasztor
That has to be put aside, even if it's, some of those win win solutions. You know, the winning solutions can only happen if you put some investment upfront to make it happen. And maybe eventually the the overall impact will still be.
00:24:58:08 - 00:25:03:08
Janos Pasztor
Positive to society and a low cost or negative cost even to society.
00:25:03:08 - 00:25:22:21
Janos Pasztor
But you still have to make it happen. And there are normal debates about it. I think it's true for everything else. I mean, look at the political situation today in the world. Just look at the Ukraine Russian situation currently as we speak. There are completely different ways of looking at why the war started. We know who started the war, but why?
00:25:22:23 - 00:25:30:05
Janos Pasztor
What were the reasons behind it. And and people had different views that we just have to work that out.
00:25:30:09 - 00:25:38:23
Christian Soschner
Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. When, when we stay with climate change because, I think we can dedicate another podcast to the Ukraine, Russian situation.
00:25:39:00 - 00:25:40:22
Janos Pasztor
Again, I mean, I'm not sure if.
00:25:40:22 - 00:25:42:09
Janos Pasztor
That's my, my it, but.
00:25:42:13 - 00:25:45:22
Janos Pasztor
But it has an impact on climate as well. So, but but.
00:25:45:22 - 00:25:47:15
Janos Pasztor
Let's focus on the climate issue. Yes.
00:25:47:18 - 00:26:12:00
Christian Soschner
Now, of course, I mean, I think a production of, of, new weaponry has, a tremendous impact. And as far as I understand, also the, the armored vehicles, are not very much, a climate friendly which leads me to the next question. When we are looking at the world leaders, I mean, people need to come together, politicians and, business leaders and find a solution.
00:26:12:02 - 00:26:22:04
Christian Soschner
Do we have I mean, besides, do we have, a forum where they can really meet and discuss solutions or, is this happening on social and social media? What? But what would be the best solution, in your opinion?
00:26:22:06 - 00:26:24:00
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. Well, there
00:26:24:00 - 00:26:26:15
Janos Pasztor
we do have one.
00:26:26:17 - 00:26:41:03
Janos Pasztor
Multilateral intergovernmental forum, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, or unSc, which has its annual big gatherings, the conference of the parties or the cops as they are, referred to, and so on.
00:26:41:03 - 00:26:42:09
Janos Pasztor
And that is media.
00:26:42:09 - 00:26:48:09
Janos Pasztor
Forum where countries can come together and they can discuss, they can talk, and sometimes they even make decisions.
00:26:48:09 - 00:26:51:16
Janos Pasztor
So we have that at the multilateral level. But that's not the.
00:26:51:16 - 00:26:54:08
Janos Pasztor
Only forum where those issues are discussed.
00:26:54:12 - 00:26:56:23
Janos Pasztor
We have regional for
00:26:57:00 - 00:26:59:16
Janos Pasztor
Some intergovernmental, some
00:26:59:18 - 00:27:08:14
Janos Pasztor
Other kind of for we also have fora where it's more based on political economics. So we have the.
00:27:08:14 - 00:27:14:04
Janos Pasztor
OECD, the organization for Economic Cooperation for development, where these issues are discussed.
00:27:14:04 - 00:27:20:12
Janos Pasztor
We have the African Ministerial Conference on the environment. We have the Climate Vulnerable Forum.
00:27:20:14 - 00:27:21:10
Janos Pasztor
Of,
00:27:21:12 - 00:27:21:20
Janos Pasztor
More.
00:27:21:20 - 00:27:25:10
Janos Pasztor
Vulnerable developing countries talking about the impacts of climate change.
00:27:25:10 - 00:27:28:16
Janos Pasztor
So there are lots of fora where these issues.
00:27:28:16 - 00:27:31:05
Janos Pasztor
Are discussed from different perspectives.
00:27:31:07 - 00:27:38:03
Janos Pasztor
And so we have, you know, fora that's not the challenge.
00:27:38:03 - 00:27:39:23
Janos Pasztor
I think the challenge is.
00:27:40:00 - 00:27:41:11
Janos Pasztor
How to make better.
00:27:41:11 - 00:27:44:04
Janos Pasztor
Use of the fora that we have.
00:27:44:06 - 00:27:44:11
Janos Pasztor
The.
00:27:44:11 - 00:27:50:01
Janos Pasztor
Different fora, because all of them are needed, not one or the other. All of them are needed. And we.
00:27:50:01 - 00:27:52:16
Janos Pasztor
Have to make sure that we make the best use.
00:27:52:16 - 00:27:53:17
Janos Pasztor
Of these for us.
00:27:53:17 - 00:27:57:19
Janos Pasztor
So that we can actually advance, on the solutions.
00:27:57:23 - 00:28:18:15
Christian Soschner
This is a good point. When we talk about solutions, what what I very often miss, I mean, when I look at Europe, for example, I work with scientists and with deep tech companies, and Europe has a pristine framework for advancing science when it comes to the solution sides translating science into useful products and commercialize them. Because at the end of the day, you need to sell it.
00:28:18:17 - 00:28:41:21
Christian Soschner
I have my doubts that Europe is the best place to be for entrepreneurs. But in transfer this understanding to change, I would say, okay. I mean, it's good that we have this, fora where people can discuss and talk about. But what about the translation of goals into practice? How do you see the world, in translating what's discussed in forum and what actually happens on the other set?
00:28:41:23 - 00:28:42:07
Janos Pasztor
Actually, it's
00:28:42:07 - 00:28:43:23
Janos Pasztor
interesting that you you.
00:28:44:00 - 00:28:46:15
Janos Pasztor
Raised this about Europe. I think Europe is the.
00:28:46:15 - 00:28:49:19
Janos Pasztor
One region which has actually translated.
00:28:49:19 - 00:28:53:12
Janos Pasztor
The, discussions and the agreements in the inter-governmental.
00:28:53:12 - 00:29:00:19
Janos Pasztor
Fora into very practical actions. And you know, Europe may be, less.
00:29:00:19 - 00:29:06:02
Janos Pasztor
Important today than it was yesterday and may become even less important.
00:29:06:02 - 00:29:07:13
Janos Pasztor
Tomorrow in.
00:29:07:13 - 00:29:09:08
Janos Pasztor
Terms of the overall scheme of things.
00:29:09:11 - 00:29:15:15
Janos Pasztor
But I think it's fair to say that, Europe has been a leader on.
00:29:15:17 - 00:29:16:15
Janos Pasztor
On.
00:29:16:17 - 00:29:28:20
Janos Pasztor
Translating these overall ideas into practical things to reach net zero emissions, to set up a carbon market, and to have, targets and achieving.
00:29:28:20 - 00:29:30:11
Janos Pasztor
Those targets for renewable.
00:29:30:16 - 00:29:32:23
Janos Pasztor
Energy use.
00:29:33:00 - 00:29:33:23
Janos Pasztor
And things like that.
00:29:33:23 - 00:29:38:09
Janos Pasztor
So, I, it's, it's there may be other places.
00:29:38:09 - 00:29:43:24
Janos Pasztor
Which can produce, you know, smart phones and.
00:29:44:01 - 00:29:47:01
Janos Pasztor
Artificial intelligence and this there's a lot of that.
00:29:47:01 - 00:29:48:00
Janos Pasztor
Stuff happening in the.
00:29:48:00 - 00:29:51:04
Janos Pasztor
World, but I think it's been it's fair to.
00:29:51:04 - 00:30:04:23
Janos Pasztor
Say that Europe has been, a fairly good student. If I can put it this way, when it comes to addressing, the, the climate impacts and the solutions to the, the climate crisis.
00:30:05:00 - 00:30:05:19
Janos Pasztor
How that will.
00:30:05:19 - 00:30:06:23
Janos Pasztor
Proceed in the future.
00:30:06:23 - 00:30:07:21
Janos Pasztor
We will have we.
00:30:07:21 - 00:30:08:12
Janos Pasztor
Will have to see.
00:30:08:12 - 00:30:09:08
Janos Pasztor
But I agree.
00:30:09:08 - 00:30:10:17
Janos Pasztor
With you that.
00:30:10:19 - 00:30:12:15
Janos Pasztor
The crucial.
00:30:12:17 - 00:30:19:15
Janos Pasztor
Point here is that governments come together and they make their discuss and they come up with either general.
00:30:19:15 - 00:30:21:08
Janos Pasztor
Guidelines or sometimes.
00:30:21:08 - 00:30:24:03
Janos Pasztor
Specific requirements, like the Kyoto Protocol had.
00:30:24:03 - 00:30:25:01
Janos Pasztor
Specific.
00:30:25:01 - 00:30:26:09
Janos Pasztor
Emission reduction.
00:30:26:09 - 00:30:27:16
Janos Pasztor
Requirements.
00:30:27:18 - 00:30:29:23
Janos Pasztor
For the developed country parties.
00:30:29:23 - 00:30:31:11
Janos Pasztor
To the protocol.
00:30:31:13 - 00:30:32:15
Janos Pasztor
Which then countries have.
00:30:32:15 - 00:30:39:14
Janos Pasztor
To achieve, but they have to convert these into national laws. And then, legislation and market.
00:30:39:14 - 00:30:44:22
Janos Pasztor
Signals and all of that. And then it can be successful.
00:30:44:24 - 00:31:02:04
Christian Soschner
So climate change, Germany needs to do something about it. And it's good that people, have this forum to discuss. And, Europe is pressing for that. But, when it comes from the economic side and I would just say buttons, I play the, the devil's advocate and people, please correct me if I'm very wrong Italian.
00:31:02:06 - 00:31:18:23
Christian Soschner
But but when I just think about diplomacy, okay? If we are the only ones implementing, the measures and move forward, of course, it has an impact on the economy. I mean, when we look at the energy prices for several reasons. But one is climate change, the energy price will be higher. I mean, the cost will be higher.
00:31:19:00 - 00:31:43:17
Christian Soschner
And then another region that say, like the US says, okay, let's create returns to that. We are in an economic disadvantage, which means economic advantage, disadvantage, and our waste will not have so much impact in future. What can we do? What practical measures can be set? That's the nations move, in sync forward. And not one place is for by test negative sides and the other side, benefit from not doing it.
00:31:43:19 - 00:31:44:15
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. So so
00:31:44:15 - 00:31:46:01
Janos Pasztor
you you raised a really important.
00:31:46:01 - 00:31:49:10
Janos Pasztor
Point, and.
00:31:49:12 - 00:31:51:12
Janos Pasztor
If you start, if your starting.
00:31:51:12 - 00:31:53:00
Janos Pasztor
Point is different.
00:31:53:02 - 00:31:54:14
Janos Pasztor
It's very difficult to move.
00:31:54:20 - 00:31:57:15
Janos Pasztor
In a synchronized way. Right?
00:31:57:17 - 00:32:09:10
Janos Pasztor
Because some people have to catch up and some people are already way ahead for in a good or bad way. Okay. So, this is the the, the what makes the intergovernmental.
00:32:09:10 - 00:32:11:03
Janos Pasztor
Discussions and negotiations.
00:32:11:03 - 00:32:12:15
Janos Pasztor
Both beautiful.
00:32:12:17 - 00:32:14:12
Janos Pasztor
And very difficult.
00:32:14:14 - 00:32:17:13
Janos Pasztor
Because it's beautiful in the sense that you recognize.
00:32:17:13 - 00:32:19:04
Janos Pasztor
That countries had different.
00:32:19:04 - 00:32:20:15
Janos Pasztor
Starting points.
00:32:20:17 - 00:32:21:03
Janos Pasztor
Different.
00:32:21:03 - 00:32:41:17
Janos Pasztor
Economic development, also different, natural givens. I mean, you know, if you're in Saudi Arabia, you put your finger in the sand and you get oil and they have lots of it. Okay. There are countries where you put your finger in the ground and there's nothing there. Okay. So these are these are the realities of the world.
00:32:41:17 - 00:32:43:23
Janos Pasztor
So what has been happening in.
00:32:43:23 - 00:32:45:17
Janos Pasztor
The intergovernmental discussions.
00:32:45:17 - 00:33:07:11
Janos Pasztor
Is to find a way, an acceptable way, acceptable to a 194 parties, to the treaty to to have an acceptable way to say, okay, we're not starting at the same place, but ultimately, in the long term, we have the same long term objective. How do you create a path that path that eventually gets.
00:33:07:11 - 00:33:09:24
Janos Pasztor
Us to the climate objectives.
00:33:10:03 - 00:33:21:23
Janos Pasztor
But does it in a just way and in a way that keeps everybody engaged and keeps people moving forward? Now, this agreement is in place. It's not perfect by any means.
00:33:22:00 - 00:33:23:12
Janos Pasztor
Don't misunderstand me.
00:33:23:12 - 00:33:24:21
Janos Pasztor
It needs a lot of work.
00:33:24:21 - 00:33:25:23
Janos Pasztor
And a lot of.
00:33:26:00 - 00:33:35:06
Janos Pasztor
Improvements and so on. But it's there. There. That was the fundamental part of the original treaty signed in 19 to, to to in 1992, in.
00:33:35:06 - 00:33:35:14
Janos Pasztor
Rio de.
00:33:35:14 - 00:33:36:14
Janos Pasztor
Janeiro, the.
00:33:36:14 - 00:33:38:07
Janos Pasztor
UN Framework Convention on Climate.
00:33:38:07 - 00:33:42:23
Janos Pasztor
Change, a broad, if you say if you you could think of this as a North-South.
00:33:42:23 - 00:33:44:13
Janos Pasztor
Bargain.
00:33:44:15 - 00:33:46:08
Janos Pasztor
That the North would.
00:33:46:08 - 00:33:47:21
Janos Pasztor
Provide resources and.
00:33:47:21 - 00:33:49:08
Janos Pasztor
Technology and start.
00:33:49:08 - 00:33:51:09
Janos Pasztor
Reducing emissions.
00:33:51:11 - 00:34:02:23
Janos Pasztor
To allow the global South to catch up, to provide technologies for them, to also eventually reduce emissions. That that was the basic deal. The problem is, of course, that in the meantime.
00:34:03:00 - 00:34:07:07
Janos Pasztor
Things haven't happened fast enough. So there's a lot more impacts now. There are.
00:34:07:10 - 00:34:08:22
Janos Pasztor
Already damages to those.
00:34:08:22 - 00:34:11:08
Janos Pasztor
Countries. How do you compensate for that?
00:34:11:12 - 00:34:12:12
Janos Pasztor
So there needs there.
00:34:12:13 - 00:34:13:01
Janos Pasztor
Is a need for.
00:34:13:01 - 00:34:19:01
Janos Pasztor
Resources. So it gets a bit more complicated. Right. But that is the fundamental deal at.
00:34:19:01 - 00:34:21:00
Janos Pasztor
The international level is to, to.
00:34:21:00 - 00:34:24:08
Janos Pasztor
Find this just path forward.
00:34:24:10 - 00:34:28:14
Janos Pasztor
That keeps, people, moving toward the goal.
00:34:28:16 - 00:34:40:23
Janos Pasztor
And, it's not easy. And then in the meantime, the position of countries on this path changes. And China is a perfect example. When, the UN.
00:34:41:00 - 00:34:43:13
Janos Pasztor
Negotiations started or when the.
00:34:43:16 - 00:34:44:13
Janos Pasztor
At the beginning.
00:34:44:13 - 00:34:46:11
Janos Pasztor
Just after the entry into.
00:34:46:11 - 00:34:48:21
Janos Pasztor
Force, China was clearly,
00:34:48:23 - 00:34:55:14
Janos Pasztor
Developing country. It's hard to say that China today is a developing country.
00:34:55:16 - 00:35:05:13
Janos Pasztor
Okay. So, so, things change and, and and also, the there, there were groups of countries that where, part of the.
00:35:05:15 - 00:35:07:10
Janos Pasztor
The Warsaw Pact, the Eastern.
00:35:07:10 - 00:35:09:01
Janos Pasztor
Bloc, and so on, and all of that has.
00:35:09:01 - 00:35:12:08
Janos Pasztor
Disappeared. Some of them are now members of the EU.
00:35:12:10 - 00:35:18:03
Janos Pasztor
You know, that the geopolitics have has changed. And therefore, the path has.
00:35:18:03 - 00:35:20:14
Janos Pasztor
Become a little bit more complicated.
00:35:20:21 - 00:35:40:20
Christian Soschner
Yeah. It was just melting up in a, in the 90s we had in school, just this practice to practice speaking in front of an audience and just, what you read in the newspaper and making small speech around it. And I found this article about China and the economic opportunity in China. It was, I think, an article of 1992, 1993.
00:35:40:20 - 00:36:06:00
Christian Soschner
So the assumption of this journalist was, China is a developing country, but they will catch up soon. So you have this huge economic opportunity. I presented this to the class. Some people were laughing and said to me, looking into developing country, when you growth euro percent, it's still 0%. So this will not have an impact. When I look at China, I mean it's mostly perceptions of kids, with 16, 17 years old back then.
00:36:06:02 - 00:36:25:02
Christian Soschner
And kids are pretty honest and and look at China today in 2025, I would say it's the biggest economic power. And I think in some areas it might already outpace the United States. And it's probably to tension between these two regions. It's, it's in three decades, a lot changes.
00:36:25:04 - 00:36:25:16
Janos Pasztor
But
00:36:25:16 - 00:36:28:13
Janos Pasztor
but I think it's also important that we don't just.
00:36:28:13 - 00:36:30:11
Janos Pasztor
Focus on China.
00:36:30:13 - 00:36:31:18
Janos Pasztor
There are many other.
00:36:31:18 - 00:36:36:10
Janos Pasztor
Countries that are not as big, or some as big. I mean, look at India.
00:36:36:14 - 00:36:38:19
Janos Pasztor
It's also, it's a much poorer.
00:36:38:19 - 00:36:39:24
Janos Pasztor
Country still.
00:36:40:05 - 00:36:44:06
Janos Pasztor
But the kinds of things that they are working on in a very different political.
00:36:44:12 - 00:36:47:21
Janos Pasztor
Environment than, let's say, China. And I'm not saying which is better or.
00:36:47:21 - 00:36:52:23
Janos Pasztor
Worse, but it is different. And, and they are moving forward, massive.
00:36:52:23 - 00:36:54:04
Janos Pasztor
Investments in solar.
00:36:54:04 - 00:36:54:18
Janos Pasztor
Energy and.
00:36:54:18 - 00:36:55:06
Janos Pasztor
Nuclear.
00:36:55:06 - 00:36:56:18
Janos Pasztor
By the way, and.
00:36:56:18 - 00:36:57:06
Janos Pasztor
And so.
00:36:57:06 - 00:37:10:23
Janos Pasztor
On. And then you have the malaysias the Indonesias Indonesia is pretty soon going to be the fourth largest economy. Oh, really? Yes. So, you know, it's you're talking about big, big numbers and, and and then there.
00:37:10:23 - 00:37:13:08
Janos Pasztor
Is the Thailand and Vietnam and so on.
00:37:13:08 - 00:37:22:03
Janos Pasztor
And so there's just so much change. And, that's part of the the path that makes this, both interesting.
00:37:22:03 - 00:37:23:21
Janos Pasztor
And challenging.
00:37:23:23 - 00:37:37:00
Christian Soschner
So it's this whole region, China, South South Korea, North Korea, China, Southeast Asia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, India. This is really advancing. So this whole.
00:37:37:02 - 00:37:37:09
Janos Pasztor
Area,
00:37:37:09 - 00:37:39:04
Janos Pasztor
well, that's there
00:37:39:04 - 00:37:44:07
Janos Pasztor
I think the Asian region is particularly important because of the total numbers involved.
00:37:44:09 - 00:37:45:04
Janos Pasztor
You know, when you add the.
00:37:45:04 - 00:37:46:13
Janos Pasztor
India, China,
00:37:46:15 - 00:37:52:16
Janos Pasztor
Indonesia together, you got, you know, I don't know, half of America and not not quite, but it's.
00:37:52:16 - 00:37:57:15
Janos Pasztor
Huge. And but but you know, look at some of the countries in the Middle.
00:37:57:15 - 00:38:02:18
Janos Pasztor
East, again, it's not a question of saying it's good or bad approach, but.
00:38:02:18 - 00:38:04:23
Janos Pasztor
Look at what's happening in UAE.
00:38:04:24 - 00:38:09:13
Janos Pasztor
I'm heading to Qatar next week, and, look at what's happening in.
00:38:09:13 - 00:38:18:20
Janos Pasztor
Doha and the levels of investment and the change. It's incredible. So the world is moving and this, this whole.
00:38:18:20 - 00:38:20:16
Janos Pasztor
Picture of Third World and.
00:38:20:18 - 00:38:24:05
Janos Pasztor
Developing countries and all of that is, is is.
00:38:24:22 - 00:38:27:00
Janos Pasztor
It's not completely gone.
00:38:27:00 - 00:38:32:12
Janos Pasztor
There are still a lot of very poor countries. And we need to think about that because their capacities are lower.
00:38:32:14 - 00:38:39:09
Janos Pasztor
But it's still, even even those poor countries like, some, in some, let's say.
00:38:39:09 - 00:38:40:24
Janos Pasztor
Africa is an interesting case.
00:38:40:24 - 00:39:01:00
Janos Pasztor
Where you can look at it and say, well, there's still a lot of poverty. Yes, it's true, but it's also a tremendous economic growth potential with all the young people coming on the market. And if just countries can find good ways to move forward, that is that can be a tremendous, growth potential.
00:39:01:00 - 00:39:02:11
Janos Pasztor
In that whole area.
00:39:02:11 - 00:39:10:19
Janos Pasztor
So again, I'm not an economist, but but what I see is, is just huge changes in the world. And all of those have impacts.
00:39:10:19 - 00:39:18:18
Janos Pasztor
On the climate, first of all, negative in the sense that it is growth in energy consumption. And a lot of it has.
00:39:18:18 - 00:39:32:07
Janos Pasztor
Been also fuel based. So now what we need to make sure is that as much of that new growth is not fossil, but renewable energy based. And then hopefully.
00:39:32:09 - 00:39:33:19
Janos Pasztor
Some of the existing.
00:39:33:19 - 00:39:34:19
Janos Pasztor
Fossil is.
00:39:34:19 - 00:39:41:08
Janos Pasztor
Over time, replaced, by the low and zero carbon technologies,
00:39:41:08 - 00:39:42:18
Janos Pasztor
economic growth.
00:39:42:18 - 00:39:57:18
Christian Soschner
I mean, you could see that the opposite is that, we reduce poverty globally. And from what you said, it seems that we did as a, as a human race, a pretty good job to advance the poorest regions in the world. But the downside is, climate change. So, so.
00:39:57:20 - 00:39:58:00
Janos Pasztor
The
00:39:58:00 - 00:40:00:15
Janos Pasztor
cost has been and tremendous improvement.
00:40:00:15 - 00:40:03:11
Janos Pasztor
In economic well-being of people everywhere.
00:40:03:11 - 00:40:07:19
Janos Pasztor
In the world. There are exceptions, of course, but I'm talking about broadly average.
00:40:07:21 - 00:40:18:16
Janos Pasztor
But the cost is it's not just climate. Actually, there are a few others. There is the biodiversity, crisis. The species losses.
00:40:18:21 - 00:40:19:22
Janos Pasztor
Land use.
00:40:19:24 - 00:40:26:01
Janos Pasztor
Challenge, very big issues with land use and land degradation, freshwater oceans, I mean.
00:40:26:01 - 00:40:28:13
Janos Pasztor
You name it, they, some call it the.
00:40:28:13 - 00:40:35:00
Janos Pasztor
Poly crisis. Where there are all these interacting crises that are taking place and.
00:40:35:02 - 00:40:39:24
Janos Pasztor
And it, it the solutions to any one of these issues cannot be looked at in.
00:40:39:24 - 00:40:40:23
Janos Pasztor
Isolation because.
00:40:40:23 - 00:40:43:22
Janos Pasztor
It's actually linked. So there are the.
00:40:43:22 - 00:40:45:24
Janos Pasztor
Costs to the economic development has.
00:40:45:24 - 00:40:47:01
Janos Pasztor
Been.
00:40:47:03 - 00:40:49:01
Janos Pasztor
This, so-called polar
00:40:49:01 - 00:40:50:12
Janos Pasztor
crisis.
00:40:50:14 - 00:41:10:00
Christian Soschner
I mean, our our value chains. When I look from the economic side, the Western value chains. So basically the value chains that we work with today, evolved in the 50s or 60 of the last centuries after World War two. And the job back then was, feed the people, especially here in Europe. And between people starve, have nothing to eat, have no houses.
00:41:10:05 - 00:41:33:06
Christian Soschner
Can't pay the rent. No electricity, especially in Switzerland or in Austria or in Hungary in winter. Not being able to heat the house, people are very unhappy. And when they are happy to do stupid things like starting wars, it's optimized the thing for a population of two, three, 4 billion people in the world. And now we're eight, eight, 9 billion people.
00:41:33:08 - 00:41:53:21
Christian Soschner
Do you think that, our technology and technology advancement can make up that we optimize for a better chance in a way that we don't drain the resources of our planet in terms of our climate change, because, as I said, it's it's a huge crisis. And I think one one of the elements, just eight, nine, 10 billion people.
00:41:53:21 - 00:42:03:11
Janos Pasztor
First of all, if I didn't believe that it's possible to do that, I wouldn't be here talking about these issues. Right. So I do believe that it's possible. And,
00:42:03:13 - 00:42:06:02
Janos Pasztor
I think the problem is not the.
00:42:06:04 - 00:42:13:22
Janos Pasztor
Eight or soon nine, 10 billion people that we will have. First of all, let's be clear that it's actually plateauing off. So.
00:42:13:24 - 00:42:16:13
Janos Pasztor
Not in not such a distant future.
00:42:16:13 - 00:42:18:22
Janos Pasztor
Our problem, again, at the global level.
00:42:18:22 - 00:42:22:02
Janos Pasztor
Is going to be, the reduction.
00:42:22:04 - 00:42:29:14
Janos Pasztor
In not just the growth, but even in the absolute number of people and how societies will deal with that demographic change.
00:42:29:14 - 00:42:33:22
Janos Pasztor
So, but but for now, it's still growth. And, but the old mind.
00:42:33:22 - 00:42:39:09
Janos Pasztor
You only in Africa, all the other regions of the world have now essentially stopped growing.
00:42:39:09 - 00:42:40:09
Janos Pasztor
So we know that we.
00:42:40:09 - 00:42:43:04
Janos Pasztor
Will plateau, relatively soon.
00:42:43:09 - 00:42:47:00
Janos Pasztor
But the problem is not the number of people. The problem is how they.
00:42:47:00 - 00:42:54:05
Janos Pasztor
Interact with nature and resources. And, you know, the, the, the, a newborn in the United.
00:42:54:05 - 00:43:01:05
Janos Pasztor
States and will use a lot more resources than a newborn in, Chad.
00:43:01:07 - 00:43:05:16
Janos Pasztor
You know, that's the reality for our our world today. And, so.
00:43:05:16 - 00:43:08:09
Janos Pasztor
The challenge is how to make.
00:43:08:09 - 00:43:13:07
Janos Pasztor
Sure that processes that are needed for societies, for people to.
00:43:13:07 - 00:43:19:10
Janos Pasztor
Live, to eat, to produce goods, are as much as possible, reducing.
00:43:19:16 - 00:43:20:13
Janos Pasztor
Their,
00:43:20:15 - 00:43:21:04
Janos Pasztor
Resource.
00:43:21:04 - 00:43:24:20
Janos Pasztor
Requirements, their energy requirements, and so on.
00:43:24:20 - 00:43:31:05
Janos Pasztor
And that, that that's the challenge that we face. So it's not the actual numbers of the people, but how.
00:43:31:07 - 00:43:36:14
Janos Pasztor
Much the resources they use and how one can adjust, that.
00:43:36:14 - 00:43:58:01
Christian Soschner
And I definitely think that when, when I look at my life seven I was born in 74 and, we had no computers in the house back then. So I believe that the resource consumption of an Austrian in the 70s, average person was much lower than today. When I look at my house today, we have a zoom call.
00:43:58:03 - 00:44:22:04
Christian Soschner
Telephone. I have, iPads, iPhone, smartphones, AirPods. I have a computer, not a laptop. So the resource consumption is much higher. I'm aware that this is negative for the climate in total, but when you start asking me, okay, how much do we want to reduce that? It was a nothing. Nothing.
00:44:22:06 - 00:44:22:16
Janos Pasztor
Okay.
00:44:22:16 - 00:44:37:07
Janos Pasztor
But but let's be careful here. So, do you care about the total energy you use? No you don't. It's. You don't care for the energy. What you want is comfort. Heat. In the winter, maybe some cool in the summer. You want to make.
00:44:37:07 - 00:44:39:04
Janos Pasztor
Sure that your iPad.
00:44:39:06 - 00:44:46:11
Janos Pasztor
Can operate. So what you want is services, right? So if if we can find ways in which we provide.
00:44:46:11 - 00:44:47:07
Janos Pasztor
Those services.
00:44:47:12 - 00:44:47:24
Janos Pasztor
With less.
00:44:47:24 - 00:44:48:12
Janos Pasztor
Energy.
00:44:48:16 - 00:44:59:17
Janos Pasztor
With less water, with less resources, you're just as happy, right? So I think that is the challenge that we face is how can we convert our entire.
00:44:59:17 - 00:45:01:04
Janos Pasztor
Economies, industrial.
00:45:01:04 - 00:45:02:20
Janos Pasztor
Processes, agricultural.
00:45:02:20 - 00:45:04:17
Janos Pasztor
Processes, food systems.
00:45:04:19 - 00:45:07:13
Janos Pasztor
To to provide the same.
00:45:07:13 - 00:45:08:09
Janos Pasztor
Services, the.
00:45:08:09 - 00:45:13:08
Janos Pasztor
Same goods, to people, and it's still.
00:45:13:13 - 00:45:15:06
Janos Pasztor
Growing population in the world.
00:45:15:08 - 00:45:37:19
Janos Pasztor
How can we do that while, reducing the, the inputs, the, the resource and energy inputs. And, you know, the one simple one is, is food. Food waste is is unbelievable the amount of food that is wasted. So if you can find waste not to waste that food, we can. We don't have to produce that much more energy.
00:45:37:19 - 00:45:49:18
Janos Pasztor
Waste is another one. I mean, we've been talking I mean, this is my I when I finished university, I focused on energy and environment. And of course we talked about energy efficiency. That was the big deal. After the oil.
00:45:49:18 - 00:45:51:18
Janos Pasztor
Crisis in the 70s, remember.
00:45:51:23 - 00:45:53:23
Janos Pasztor
And and we still have a.
00:45:53:23 - 00:45:55:20
Janos Pasztor
Problem of energy efficiency.
00:45:55:22 - 00:46:30:20
Janos Pasztor
Even in the countries which have done a lot, but in countries which have not done a lot, it's just unbelievable how in countries which are cold, you still have single pane windows. A lot of it. And, and and so, you know, I can go on the, the list. But the point is that, we have to do better at, not wasting things and at, reducing consumption, going in toward a circular economy where we, you reuse recycle materials, and, and, and then we can cover those.
00:46:30:20 - 00:46:36:17
Janos Pasztor
Services and, and the goods that are needed without, all, the inputs.
00:46:36:17 - 00:46:38:13
Janos Pasztor
I mean, there are there are examples.
00:46:38:13 - 00:46:40:19
Janos Pasztor
Of countries where you look at their GNP.
00:46:40:19 - 00:46:42:12
Janos Pasztor
Growth and their.
00:46:42:14 - 00:46:44:04
Janos Pasztor
Energy consumption.
00:46:44:06 - 00:46:46:13
Janos Pasztor
And, Denmark is one of them.
00:46:46:13 - 00:46:48:07
Janos Pasztor
And there I'm sure you can pull off many.
00:46:48:07 - 00:46:52:23
Janos Pasztor
From the list where you can do considerable increase in your GDP.
00:46:53:00 - 00:47:04:00
Janos Pasztor
Mind you, I don't believe that GDP is the best measure of of, and certainly not a sustainability nor, I think, of human well-being.
00:47:04:00 - 00:47:07:04
Janos Pasztor
But it is a measure that we have. And you can manage.
00:47:07:04 - 00:47:12:11
Janos Pasztor
That even, with much reduced energy, consumption.
00:47:12:11 - 00:47:31:19
Christian Soschner
Now, no key figure is perfect, and no key figure can explain everything in the world. It's just that the right figure for the right purpose. But. So, from what you said, it's not about taking comfort away from people. The question is, I know Elon Musk is a controversial figure these days with, with the Trump production and there's a lot of discussion on social media.
00:47:31:19 - 00:47:57:08
Christian Soschner
But basically what we need is the mindset that he expressed with SpaceX to drive down the cost but increase the quality of our products. And when we talk about climate change, we want to have products that consume less resources but are more convenient for people. And we also increase the availability for the poorer regions. Which means when it comes from the economic side, it's a huge opportunity for startups.
00:47:57:08 - 00:48:02:04
Christian Soschner
In the end of the day, there is a lot of optimization needed. Then in future.
00:48:02:06 - 00:48:02:15
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. And
00:48:02:15 - 00:48:11:08
Janos Pasztor
and it's happening. I mean, startups are coming up with fantastic ideas, everywhere in the world. And, and and that's great. So that's.
00:48:11:21 - 00:48:13:22
Janos Pasztor
That's the, the kind of economy.
00:48:13:22 - 00:48:19:01
Janos Pasztor
That we live in. And whether you like it or not, it gets another discussion, another broadcast.
00:48:19:01 - 00:48:20:09
Janos Pasztor
But but the fact.
00:48:20:09 - 00:48:21:21
Janos Pasztor
Is that,
00:48:21:23 - 00:48:23:18
Janos Pasztor
That's the essentially.
00:48:23:18 - 00:48:28:17
Janos Pasztor
The global economy. And in that global economy, the startups have a very important.
00:48:28:17 - 00:48:29:10
Janos Pasztor
Role to play.
00:48:29:15 - 00:48:39:03
Janos Pasztor
And they come up with fantastic ideas, some which are extremely helpful, to do exactly the kinds of things we talked about earlier.
00:48:39:03 - 00:48:53:02
Christian Soschner
So we need a lot of more investment capital then into space co going moving in this direction and, encourage more people to, contribute to the questions that we have, to improving our value chains.
00:48:53:04 - 00:48:54:07
Janos Pasztor
Yes,
00:48:54:07 - 00:48:56:06
Janos Pasztor
yes. But, but, but it's important.
00:48:56:06 - 00:49:15:20
Janos Pasztor
That the investment goes to the right place. And and the right place in this sense is to drive things towards sustainability, drive things to a circular economy. You know, we there is something called ESG and, and, those are important for.
00:49:15:20 - 00:49:16:18
Janos Pasztor
Companies and.
00:49:16:18 - 00:49:18:03
Janos Pasztor
Financiers to.
00:49:18:05 - 00:49:19:15
Janos Pasztor
To, to direct.
00:49:19:15 - 00:49:23:18
Janos Pasztor
These, this kind of investment strategies toward things.
00:49:23:18 - 00:49:24:05
Janos Pasztor
That help.
00:49:24:05 - 00:49:25:19
Janos Pasztor
For sustainability as opposed.
00:49:25:19 - 00:49:27:08
Janos Pasztor
To things that don't helps.
00:49:27:08 - 00:49:28:21
Janos Pasztor
Sustainability.
00:49:29:04 - 00:49:42:21
Christian Soschner
Yeah. I don't think it must be a contradiction to, have a capitalist system which is not, which is ignoring sustainability. I think this can go hand in hand. What's the best practice that you have seen in this area? Investments in sustainability.
00:49:42:23 - 00:49:43:24
Janos Pasztor
Well,
00:49:43:24 - 00:50:03:24
Janos Pasztor
Well, first of all, before I answer that question there, there are some real discussions and different views, whether capitalism, the way it's set up, really the way it has evolved, can actually handle sustainability in the long term. I, I don't want to go into that in detail, but I just don't want to be.
00:50:04:01 - 00:50:05:17
Janos Pasztor
Don't want to take it as.
00:50:05:17 - 00:50:12:17
Janos Pasztor
Granted that capitalism can. But I am sure. Is that our current system of capitalism.
00:50:12:17 - 00:50:13:22
Janos Pasztor
Can be improved.
00:50:14:02 - 00:50:20:13
Janos Pasztor
Towards sustainability. And at the moment that's the focus, I think, of our discussion. Okay. So,
00:50:20:15 - 00:50:23:15
Janos Pasztor
I, I mean, look at look at two.
00:50:23:15 - 00:50:24:05
Janos Pasztor
Countries.
00:50:24:05 - 00:50:26:12
Janos Pasztor
Look at Germany.
00:50:26:14 - 00:50:27:17
Janos Pasztor
Some years ago.
00:50:27:23 - 00:50:28:04
Janos Pasztor
When.
00:50:28:04 - 00:50:29:16
Janos Pasztor
They started their energy and.
00:50:29:16 - 00:50:33:04
Janos Pasztor
Their, their, and they put massive amounts.
00:50:33:04 - 00:50:41:05
Janos Pasztor
Of investments into renewable energy. Everybody thought they were crazy. Well, not everybody, but a lot of people thought they were crazy.
00:50:41:09 - 00:50:45:08
Janos Pasztor
But in the end, what happened was that it began the process.
00:50:45:08 - 00:50:48:06
Janos Pasztor
Of driving down the price of solar panels.
00:50:48:08 - 00:50:51:15
Janos Pasztor
And then that was essentially taken over.
00:50:51:15 - 00:50:55:13
Janos Pasztor
By China in a order of magnitude larger way.
00:50:55:13 - 00:51:00:24
Janos Pasztor
And they did exactly the same massive investment in, not a single.
00:51:00:24 - 00:51:06:14
Janos Pasztor
Technology necessarily, but in, in, in an approach in a family of technologies.
00:51:06:16 - 00:51:11:24
Janos Pasztor
And you could say that it was risky, perhaps, but I think it has paid off. And now.
00:51:11:24 - 00:51:13:02
Janos Pasztor
We have a situation.
00:51:13:02 - 00:51:13:20
Janos Pasztor
Where.
00:51:13:22 - 00:51:16:01
Janos Pasztor
Solar electricity is something that.
00:51:16:01 - 00:51:17:19
Janos Pasztor
Is totally.
00:51:17:21 - 00:51:24:02
Janos Pasztor
Competitive, with just about any other electricity, in most places in the world.
00:51:24:02 - 00:51:26:01
Janos Pasztor
Thanks to these kinds of.
00:51:26:03 - 00:51:30:10
Janos Pasztor
Investment strategies by two significant countries.
00:51:30:17 - 00:51:51:18
Christian Soschner
Yeah. Solar is a good example of economies of scale. So the more you produce from something, usually it's, the costs, the kind like with, with the increase of the volume. And also people learn to improve the production processes, improve the products, and it becomes also more resource efficient. I think. So this an excellent example of that.
00:51:51:18 - 00:52:14:17
Christian Soschner
Elon Musk once said that, you just need a small space of the United States to power the entire United States. But, we need more more investments generally. Intellect, research, equities. As far as he understands that, do you think solar alone is enough? When we look at, the impact of energy on climate change, what other technologies, do we need?
00:52:14:19 - 00:52:15:05
Janos Pasztor
Look at
00:52:15:05 - 00:52:33:05
Janos Pasztor
I there, there there have been studies, which which showed that an all solar world is possible and others which have said that. No, that's not possible. You you still need some other, energy systems and.
00:52:33:09 - 00:52:34:02
Janos Pasztor
At the end.
00:52:34:02 - 00:52:36:07
Janos Pasztor
I am one of those who.
00:52:36:09 - 00:52:37:13
Janos Pasztor
I don't like to.
00:52:37:13 - 00:52:41:04
Janos Pasztor
Think that is a single, easiest single solution. So you.
00:52:41:09 - 00:52:42:06
Janos Pasztor
You need.
00:52:42:08 - 00:52:44:13
Janos Pasztor
Different energy systems.
00:52:44:15 - 00:52:46:04
Janos Pasztor
That together will.
00:52:46:04 - 00:52:47:22
Janos Pasztor
Take us where we need to go.
00:52:47:24 - 00:52:51:22
Janos Pasztor
And, you know, if solar.
00:52:51:23 - 00:52:52:14
Janos Pasztor
Is is.
00:52:52:14 - 00:52:54:02
Janos Pasztor
Fantastic, but solar.
00:52:54:02 - 00:52:59:12
Janos Pasztor
Only works when there is some, it's pretty much, you know.
00:52:59:14 - 00:53:05:12
Janos Pasztor
And, wind is great. When there is wind, and hydro is really.
00:53:05:12 - 00:53:06:19
Janos Pasztor
Great when there is enough.
00:53:06:19 - 00:53:11:13
Janos Pasztor
Water. And, nuclear is.
00:53:11:15 - 00:53:14:00
Janos Pasztor
Again, for some people, it's not a great,
00:53:14:03 - 00:53:15:08
Janos Pasztor
Technique, but it is certainly.
00:53:15:08 - 00:53:17:04
Janos Pasztor
Look, a zero low carbon.
00:53:17:06 - 00:53:27:18
Janos Pasztor
And but it doesn't work if there isn't enough water to cool the, the planet. So, you know, at the end of the day, I think the world needs,
00:53:27:20 - 00:53:31:17
Janos Pasztor
All of these different things and,
00:53:31:19 - 00:53:34:22
Janos Pasztor
And, there is a lot more renewable energy.
00:53:34:22 - 00:53:35:18
Janos Pasztor
Investment than that.
00:53:35:18 - 00:53:37:07
Janos Pasztor
We need to do, because that's.
00:53:37:07 - 00:53:41:02
Janos Pasztor
In many ways is probably, the best overall.
00:53:41:02 - 00:53:48:20
Janos Pasztor
But at the same time, you know, we still need electric, electric, electricity at night. And whether you achieve.
00:53:48:20 - 00:53:50:18
Janos Pasztor
That through storage or a baseline.
00:53:50:18 - 00:54:02:03
Janos Pasztor
Nuclear plant. Well, it depends on the economic, technological, social situation in the country where you are, so, you know, trying to sell a new nuclear plant in.
00:54:02:03 - 00:54:02:15
Janos Pasztor
Germany.
00:54:02:15 - 00:54:07:23
Janos Pasztor
Today. I think it will be difficult. There there is plenty of,
00:54:08:00 - 00:54:09:14
Janos Pasztor
Nuclear growth in China and.
00:54:09:14 - 00:54:27:03
Janos Pasztor
India. Finland. You know, it's it's possible. So I'm, I'm just saying that I think we need, we don't need a silver bullet. We need a silver buckshot of lots of different things that together will take.
00:54:27:03 - 00:54:28:16
Janos Pasztor
Us where we need to go.
00:54:28:24 - 00:54:40:10
Christian Soschner
And I, I totally agree with that. I think I also think we need, and every government has to find their own mix, local mix. But I think the one thing, one thing is clear. We need to move away from oil and gas and coal and coal.
00:54:40:16 - 00:54:42:15
Janos Pasztor
And cool, cool.
00:54:42:17 - 00:54:44:01
Christian Soschner
Forget about that.
00:54:44:03 - 00:54:44:14
Janos Pasztor
Not forget.
00:54:44:14 - 00:54:45:07
Janos Pasztor
About coal. Yeah.
00:54:45:12 - 00:54:46:18
Janos Pasztor
And, you know, I mean, think
00:54:46:18 - 00:55:07:02
Janos Pasztor
of a country like Kenya. They sit on there a lot of relatively easily. Reachable geothermal energy. So, I mean, let them focus on geothermal energy. That's great. You know, there are other places where you have lots of wind in the North Sea, you know, lots of wind there. Offshore and onshore and you name it.
00:55:07:04 - 00:55:09:24
Janos Pasztor
That's great. You know, they said, I.
00:55:09:24 - 00:55:12:23
Janos Pasztor
Know if you've been to Copenhagen in the winters.
00:55:12:23 - 00:55:17:20
Janos Pasztor
A lot of cold winters there. And so, you know, there are opportunities in different.
00:55:17:20 - 00:55:20:16
Janos Pasztor
Parts of the world for different energy systems.
00:55:20:18 - 00:55:25:23
Christian Soschner
And a lot of sun in Saudi Arabia and also in Dubai. So solar most perfect solution for them.
00:55:26:00 - 00:55:28:15
Janos Pasztor
And and I was in
00:55:28:17 - 00:55:38:09
Janos Pasztor
Dubai, last year and we visited, a solar plant that was already 3.5GW. And by now I think it's five, you know.
00:55:38:09 - 00:55:41:20
Janos Pasztor
That's that's what they're doing.
00:55:41:23 - 00:56:03:22
Christian Soschner
Yeah. I changed my picture completely about Saudi Arabia in the last few years. They always have as of 80s, 90s, they always had this picture. Saudi Arabia is just into oil and, petrochemical industry and that's it. And now they're investing heavily in oil technology, technological areas. This is pretty impressive. Also how this, rich now move small to sustainability.
00:56:03:22 - 00:56:06:21
Janos Pasztor
Well, it's it's, I hope it's.
00:56:06:21 - 00:56:07:22
Janos Pasztor
Sustainability.
00:56:07:22 - 00:56:09:02
Janos Pasztor
But if, if nothing.
00:56:09:02 - 00:56:12:18
Janos Pasztor
Else, it's economic diversification. They.
00:56:12:18 - 00:56:14:20
Janos Pasztor
Understand very well that
00:56:14:20 - 00:56:17:10
Janos Pasztor
there is, the transition.
00:56:17:10 - 00:56:22:07
Janos Pasztor
Away from fossil fuels and, whether it's going to take five years or.
00:56:22:07 - 00:56:24:01
Janos Pasztor
50, that's part of the.
00:56:24:01 - 00:56:25:17
Janos Pasztor
Challenge that we're facing in the world.
00:56:25:17 - 00:56:27:10
Janos Pasztor
But there is a transition.
00:56:27:12 - 00:56:29:02
Janos Pasztor
And
00:56:29:04 - 00:56:34:17
Janos Pasztor
The the question is, if as, as as we move forward.
00:56:34:17 - 00:56:35:17
Janos Pasztor
In that transition.
00:56:35:17 - 00:56:39:12
Janos Pasztor
Path, what else is there for those.
00:56:39:12 - 00:56:44:07
Janos Pasztor
Countries that are highly dependent on the export of, oil and gas?
00:56:44:09 - 00:56:52:08
Janos Pasztor
They have to they have to do something else, and it doesn't happen overnight. And and so this is, economic.
00:56:52:08 - 00:57:01:11
Janos Pasztor
Diversification into financing to transported to tourism and to being at an airport, an air hub, you know, and, and, and.
00:57:01:13 - 00:57:06:05
Janos Pasztor
And whatever else. So, and again, whether that's actually,
00:57:06:07 - 00:57:13:20
Janos Pasztor
Sustainable in, in the sense of the sustainable development goals of environment, economic, social together.
00:57:13:22 - 00:57:16:23
Janos Pasztor
That's something one can one can debate and discuss.
00:57:16:23 - 00:57:27:04
Janos Pasztor
But it is definitely economic diversification. Moving away from oil and gas being your only, source of national wealth.
00:57:27:04 - 00:57:40:22
Christian Soschner
But we have what don't we have the problem anyways? That, at one point in time we for without climate change, there will be an end to fossil fuels. So it's not an endless resource as far as I understand it. So we have.
00:57:40:24 - 00:57:41:14
Janos Pasztor
Yeah.
00:57:41:14 - 00:57:45:01
Janos Pasztor
But you know, there's there's so much of it that I wouldn't.
00:57:45:03 - 00:57:47:03
Janos Pasztor
I think we will we will cook.
00:57:47:03 - 00:57:53:09
Janos Pasztor
Ourselves for the climate change before we run out of oil. Okay, okay. Good to know there is so much of it.
00:57:53:14 - 00:57:55:13
Janos Pasztor
And, and countries are finding more
00:57:55:13 - 00:57:58:21
Janos Pasztor
and so, you know, Brazil
00:57:58:21 - 00:58:06:20
Janos Pasztor
is becoming a major exporter of, of of oil. Oh, yes. Was it two days ago Brazil
00:58:06:20 - 00:58:13:04
Janos Pasztor
joined OPEC plus and and you know, this is there and there are other.
00:58:13:04 - 00:58:17:10
Janos Pasztor
Countries and there are other finds and there is the the Arctic region. And,
00:58:17:12 - 00:58:19:04
Janos Pasztor
You can ask, the.
00:58:19:04 - 00:58:23:12
Janos Pasztor
Russians how much oil and gas is there, why are they so interested in that.
00:58:23:12 - 00:58:29:03
Janos Pasztor
Region? You know, that's, there's a lot I wouldn't, you know, when I.
00:58:29:03 - 00:58:37:22
Janos Pasztor
Studied, in the university, which is now my it's in the 70s. Right. So it's a very long time ago.
00:58:38:01 - 00:58:40:16
Janos Pasztor
But, in the energy course we
00:58:40:16 - 00:58:41:14
Janos Pasztor
took, they were.
00:58:41:14 - 00:58:44:05
Janos Pasztor
Talking about the end of oil.
00:58:44:07 - 00:58:46:17
Janos Pasztor
And, you know, it's. We didn't
00:58:46:17 - 00:58:46:22
Janos Pasztor
reach.
00:58:46:22 - 00:58:48:08
Janos Pasztor
The end of oil. No.
00:58:48:10 - 00:58:50:13
Christian Soschner
Okay. So this is never going to happen. The.
00:58:50:15 - 00:58:52:03
Janos Pasztor
I don't think that's the.
00:58:52:09 - 00:58:54:18
Janos Pasztor
As I said, I think we will literally.
00:58:54:23 - 00:59:09:01
Janos Pasztor
Poke ourselves, before we reach and oil and gas, so. And I and I didn't even talk about coal. There is just so much of that. So, no, no, I think it's not a good way to.
00:59:09:05 - 00:59:10:10
Janos Pasztor
And, and, somebody.
00:59:10:17 - 00:59:14:02
Janos Pasztor
Said this that.
00:59:14:04 - 00:59:18:15
Janos Pasztor
The, the world, moved to coal, not because.
00:59:18:15 - 00:59:22:14
Janos Pasztor
You ran out of wood.
00:59:22:16 - 00:59:23:09
Janos Pasztor
Right. That's true.
00:59:23:11 - 00:59:26:09
Christian Soschner
That's true, that's true. That's there's some good left.
00:59:26:11 - 00:59:35:11
Janos Pasztor
In fact, there's more wood use now than back then. Yeah. So it's it's it's not that, it's it's, there are other factors.
00:59:35:11 - 00:59:40:17
Janos Pasztor
That make us move into different systems. I mean, electric cars.
00:59:40:19 - 00:59:45:08
Janos Pasztor
You know, we're still at the beginning, but they are much, much better than.
00:59:45:10 - 00:59:51:23
Janos Pasztor
Petrol cars. Okay. If you don't have enough charging stations and they are not fast enough chargers, then.
00:59:51:23 - 00:59:57:10
Janos Pasztor
There is that inconvenience. But that is evolving and changing. But the the fact is that an.
00:59:57:10 - 00:59:58:13
Janos Pasztor
Electric car has less.
00:59:58:13 - 01:00:08:24
Janos Pasztor
Moving parts, less servicing. They are much faster, they're quieter and so on and so forth. So, that there is there are.
01:00:08:24 - 01:00:18:18
Janos Pasztor
Reasons why electric cars are good, not just because they don't emit a greenhouse gases at the point of use.
01:00:18:21 - 01:00:30:18
Christian Soschner
That's interesting. I'm just preparing for another podcast episode into it myself, into batteries. And I was not aware that electric cars were basically developed in parallel of combustion engine, 150 years ago.
01:00:30:19 - 01:00:33:03
Janos Pasztor
Oh yeah. Oh, yes. Absolutely.
01:00:33:05 - 01:00:36:17
Christian Soschner
And then nothing happened. Nothing happened until I think. Not. Yeah.
01:00:36:18 - 01:00:38:12
Janos Pasztor
Not nothing. Not nothing. Mr.
01:00:38:12 - 01:00:43:16
Janos Pasztor
Rockefeller came and had lots of oil and make sure that it really petrol.
01:00:43:16 - 01:00:48:11
Janos Pasztor
Cars that I I'm just using him as an example. But him and others.
01:00:48:11 - 01:00:49:01
Janos Pasztor
At that time,
01:00:49:01 - 01:00:53:09
Janos Pasztor
and you know, that was a, there was a.
01:00:53:09 - 01:00:58:14
Janos Pasztor
Fight there, so to speak. You know, there was a, a competition. And of course, at that.
01:00:58:14 - 01:00:59:00
Janos Pasztor
Time, the.
01:00:59:00 - 01:01:03:00
Janos Pasztor
Lead batteries were not that great. LED acid batteries.
01:01:03:02 - 01:01:05:17
Janos Pasztor
But they could have been developed better.
01:01:05:19 - 01:01:13:13
Janos Pasztor
At that time. But they weren't because it was cheap oil, thanks to, Mr. Rockefeller and others.
01:01:13:13 - 01:01:20:22
Janos Pasztor
So here we go. So. But it's true. It's true. And there were the electric cars in Texas and.
01:01:20:24 - 01:01:22:07
Janos Pasztor
And, and so on.
01:01:22:07 - 01:01:25:00
Janos Pasztor
So you can imagine what would.
01:01:25:00 - 01:01:31:05
Janos Pasztor
Have been the case had the things developed differently at the, at the beginning of last century.
01:01:31:08 - 01:01:54:10
Christian Soschner
That's interesting. So it was the guys with the oil who pushed the combustion engine forward and invested heavily into that. And, they had some probably also some advantages over electric vehicles back in 1910, 1920, 50s technology. But, basically we can say or we could say that the electric vehicle is somewhere in the 20s of the last century stuck.
01:01:54:10 - 01:02:02:05
Christian Soschner
And now we need to catch up and, make them better. So there is 100 years we can catch up in development, and they will be better in future.
01:02:02:05 - 01:02:05:13
Janos Pasztor
And just to add one more, the guys.
01:02:05:15 - 01:02:09:02
Janos Pasztor
As to use your words, who were against, the electric.
01:02:09:02 - 01:02:09:09
Janos Pasztor
They are.
01:02:09:09 - 01:02:11:21
Janos Pasztor
Still against the electric today.
01:02:11:23 - 01:02:15:01
Janos Pasztor
It's the same group. The the fossil fuel.
01:02:15:01 - 01:02:19:24
Janos Pasztor
Economy is a huge part of most nations economies, and.
01:02:19:24 - 01:02:20:18
Janos Pasztor
They're.
01:02:20:20 - 01:02:23:09
Janos Pasztor
Clearly, exercising.
01:02:23:09 - 01:02:26:06
Janos Pasztor
Pressure to to try to make that.
01:02:26:06 - 01:02:27:02
Janos Pasztor
Live as long as.
01:02:27:02 - 01:02:28:01
Janos Pasztor
Possible.
01:02:28:01 - 01:02:32:11
Janos Pasztor
Okay, okay. Okay.
01:02:32:13 - 01:02:52:23
Christian Soschner
Well, humans, humans. So we need to develop anyways. So what should we do? Before we talk about the talk about solutions, let's talk about your time. It's, it's a UN assistant secretary general on climate change. What was the most defining moment from that time.
01:02:53:00 - 01:02:54:13
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. So this
01:02:54:13 - 01:03:01:08
Janos Pasztor
was this was the time when, we were.
01:03:01:08 - 01:03:05:22
Janos Pasztor
Preparing for the Paris Agreement and,
01:03:05:24 - 01:03:13:02
Janos Pasztor
You know, it was, it was defining in the sense that, we, there was, there was pressure to.
01:03:13:02 - 01:03:27:12
Janos Pasztor
Come to a new agreement, after the Kyoto Protocol, which, I, I, I don't want to call it a failure, even though it didn't quite go the way it was planned. But,
01:03:27:14 - 01:03:32:14
Janos Pasztor
It was defining in the sense that the world there was so much.
01:03:32:14 - 01:03:35:12
Janos Pasztor
Pressure to come to an agreement and and.
01:03:35:12 - 01:03:36:00
Janos Pasztor
We did.
01:03:36:00 - 01:03:37:14
Janos Pasztor
Come to an agreement.
01:03:37:16 - 01:03:40:14
Janos Pasztor
It was, quite a weak.
01:03:40:14 - 01:03:43:18
Janos Pasztor
Agreement when you think about it.
01:03:43:20 - 01:03:46:11
Janos Pasztor
Because it removed any constraint.
01:03:46:11 - 01:03:51:03
Janos Pasztor
On the amount of emissions countries are prepared to do.
01:03:51:05 - 01:03:52:01
Janos Pasztor
If you go back to the.
01:03:52:01 - 01:03:55:13
Janos Pasztor
Kyoto Protocol for the developed country.
01:03:55:13 - 01:04:02:10
Janos Pasztor
Parties, what happened there was they negotiated the amount of emissions they would.
01:04:02:12 - 01:04:07:05
Janos Pasztor
Be prepared to reduce. Each country said, this is what I can do.
01:04:07:05 - 01:04:08:03
Janos Pasztor
And then there was some.
01:04:08:03 - 01:04:15:05
Janos Pasztor
Level of negotiations, one country pushing the other, and at the end came out a list that this is what they will do.
01:04:15:05 - 01:04:16:14
Janos Pasztor
And that was then a legally.
01:04:16:14 - 01:04:20:17
Janos Pasztor
Binding requirement in Paris. There was no such thing.
01:04:20:21 - 01:04:25:07
Janos Pasztor
The the only thing that is legally binding is to actually do,
01:04:26:17 - 01:04:26:24
Janos Pasztor
And.
01:04:27:02 - 01:04:39:09
Janos Pasztor
Report a set of plans of what you plan to do in these nationally determined contributions, as they're called NDCs. That is a requirement that is a legally binding requirement.
01:04:39:11 - 01:04:41:11
Janos Pasztor
But what do you do? How much.
01:04:41:11 - 01:04:46:09
Janos Pasztor
You do? It's not part of the requirement. So.
01:04:46:11 - 01:04:52:20
Janos Pasztor
That's a big change. And it's a big change. And, I think it, it weakened the.
01:04:52:22 - 01:04:58:09
Janos Pasztor
Into national process quite a bit. And unfortunately, what we see is that the.
01:04:58:11 - 01:04:59:15
Janos Pasztor
The real criteria.
01:04:59:15 - 01:05:02:05
Janos Pasztor
For success for Paris was.
01:05:02:07 - 01:05:07:01
Janos Pasztor
That, you would the each time you come around a new.
01:05:07:01 - 01:05:13:10
Janos Pasztor
National, they determined contributions. The new plans would become more ambitious. They used.
01:05:13:10 - 01:05:13:22
Janos Pasztor
The word no.
01:05:13:22 - 01:05:15:22
Janos Pasztor
Backsliding. Okay.
01:05:16:01 - 01:05:17:05
Janos Pasztor
But what we haven't.
01:05:17:05 - 01:05:17:15
Janos Pasztor
Seen.
01:05:17:15 - 01:05:19:19
Janos Pasztor
Is any sort of substantial.
01:05:19:19 - 01:05:28:24
Janos Pasztor
Increases in ambition. It's sort of there, you know, and, and the result is that global emissions are still rising. So.
01:05:29:01 - 01:05:31:01
Janos Pasztor
This is this to me was the.
01:05:31:01 - 01:05:33:05
Janos Pasztor
Determining, situation.
01:05:33:05 - 01:05:34:09
Janos Pasztor
And I think it's fair.
01:05:34:09 - 01:05:35:22
Janos Pasztor
To say that.
01:05:35:24 - 01:05:36:23
Janos Pasztor
An important.
01:05:36:23 - 01:05:42:09
Janos Pasztor
Factor in this was, the US pressure to
01:05:42:09 - 01:05:44:13
Janos Pasztor
keep.
01:05:44:15 - 01:05:45:17
Janos Pasztor
To keep away from.
01:05:45:17 - 01:05:56:08
Janos Pasztor
Legally binding emission reductions because the US felt that politically, they would not be able to have that ratified by the Senate. And, and, and.
01:05:56:10 - 01:05:56:24
Janos Pasztor
You know, that's a.
01:05:56:24 - 01:05:58:04
Janos Pasztor
Significant,
01:05:58:04 - 01:06:00:13
Janos Pasztor
01:06:00:15 - 01:06:02:12
Janos Pasztor
That's a significant challenge.
01:06:02:12 - 01:06:05:13
Janos Pasztor
Political challenge that, that we had at that time.
01:06:05:13 - 01:06:13:12
Janos Pasztor
So, so, you know, in that sense, you could say that, the the agreement that.
01:06:13:12 - 01:06:19:19
Janos Pasztor
Was developed, the Paris Agreement was there. It was weaker than would have been useful.
01:06:19:19 - 01:06:23:22
Janos Pasztor
But it was still an agreement. There was not sufficient.
01:06:23:22 - 01:06:28:16
Janos Pasztor
Leadership from the biggest emitter at that time, which was the United.
01:06:28:16 - 01:06:36:02
Janos Pasztor
States, because of what I just described. And then I think it was really the.
01:06:36:02 - 01:06:46:01
Janos Pasztor
Negotiations leading up to Paris that that began to seriously change China's, position vis-a-vis the international process. And,
01:06:46:03 - 01:06:47:09
Janos Pasztor
They may have had.
01:06:47:11 - 01:06:55:05
Janos Pasztor
Internal, you know, internal plans and strategies and so on, but it was really the negotiations for Paris, where.
01:06:55:07 - 01:06:57:11
Janos Pasztor
And I could see, even with my own eyes.
01:06:57:11 - 01:07:08:04
Janos Pasztor
During the preparatory negotiations and then the final discussions, how, the Chinese position was evolving, toward,
01:07:08:06 - 01:07:10:10
Janos Pasztor
Accommodating within.
01:07:10:10 - 01:07:10:19
Janos Pasztor
The
01:07:10:19 - 01:07:11:17
Janos Pasztor
global process.
01:07:11:17 - 01:07:12:17
Janos Pasztor
And that's that was a.
01:07:12:17 - 01:07:18:02
Janos Pasztor
Good, part of this defining moment, if I can put it this way.
01:07:18:04 - 01:07:22:21
Christian Soschner
Authentic touted China's position evolve over time.
01:07:22:23 - 01:07:24:03
Janos Pasztor
Well, you know,
01:07:24:03 - 01:07:32:10
Janos Pasztor
over time, you know, China's position historically has been, we were a developing country.
01:07:32:10 - 01:07:36:16
Janos Pasztor
You guys in the north, you have to do what you have to do. I'm simplifying, but.
01:07:36:22 - 01:07:37:19
Janos Pasztor
But that's the.
01:07:37:19 - 01:07:39:18
Janos Pasztor
Sense. Okay? And and.
01:07:39:20 - 01:07:42:09
Janos Pasztor
And over by the time we got.
01:07:42:09 - 01:07:48:20
Janos Pasztor
To Paris, it was very clear that China had its responsibility in this international process.
01:07:48:20 - 01:07:50:18
Janos Pasztor
Of course, still within the so-called.
01:07:50:21 - 01:08:01:20
Janos Pasztor
Common but differentiated responsibilities, which is the internationally agreed jargon to say the developed countries go first and the developing countries go next. Right?
01:08:01:22 - 01:08:02:19
Janos Pasztor
So,
01:08:02:21 - 01:08:04:09
Janos Pasztor
And, and
01:08:04:11 - 01:08:07:22
Janos Pasztor
But still, the by the time.
01:08:07:24 - 01:08:21:00
Janos Pasztor
Paris was done, it was very clear that China had its responsibility. They had set it their goal. And now they also had a net zero goal. It's a bit later than the developed countries, which is fair enough.
01:08:21:00 - 01:08:23:22
Janos Pasztor
You know, you can say, it's not as.
01:08:23:22 - 01:08:36:17
Janos Pasztor
Far down the road as India is. It's, Chinese 2060, India's 2070. Most of their global north is 2050. So that's that's the way it goes.
01:08:36:17 - 01:08:39:11
Janos Pasztor
But it's well, we have it. And that in a.
01:08:39:11 - 01:08:46:20
Janos Pasztor
Sense, is the, the positive part of the Paris Agreement that everybody's on board. Everybody is part of the train.
01:08:46:22 - 01:08:48:08
Janos Pasztor
It's just that the train.
01:08:48:09 - 01:08:52:01
Janos Pasztor
Has no measurement to see how fast each wagon is going forward.
01:08:52:22 - 01:09:12:00
Christian Soschner
Yeah. So there is hope. There's hope. At the end of the day, I'm still thinking about this path that you were saying, about capitalism, coming from the side. And I was just thinking, what what's the problem that we have with climate change is a given, so we need to do something. And when I look at humans, I think humans, we always have self-interest, in mind.
01:09:12:02 - 01:09:38:15
Christian Soschner
We want something that is, less fixed. It causes less friction. It's more comfortable and convenient to use it. Or and it's cheaper. And we just add another dimension and it must be more environmental friendly. And this was always, when I think back to my time in the industry, for example, it was always, the mindset where say, you can can't have both, you can't increase the quality and drive down prices.
01:09:38:17 - 01:09:59:13
Christian Soschner
When you look at many Silicon Valley startups, it's exactly what they did. And I think to to get to this point, make a product more sustainable, cheaper and more convenient is the classic startup problem. I think this is, there's so much potential in just improvement, in my opinion. How do you see this?
01:09:59:15 - 01:10:00:19
Janos Pasztor
I mean, I
01:10:00:19 - 01:10:07:02
Janos Pasztor
agree, but I think there has to be careful here that, that the climate change issue cannot.
01:10:07:02 - 01:10:15:02
Janos Pasztor
Be solved in a silo looking at only the climate part, of the problem, that is to say, the carbon part.
01:10:15:06 - 01:10:21:15
Janos Pasztor
Okay. It's it's linked to so many different issues and startups are not very good at looking at.
01:10:21:15 - 01:10:22:18
Janos Pasztor
The big picture.
01:10:22:18 - 01:10:26:14
Janos Pasztor
They will be very good at looking at a slice, and they can do really well.
01:10:26:14 - 01:10:26:22
Janos Pasztor
In that.
01:10:26:22 - 01:10:36:07
Janos Pasztor
Slice. And we need them to look at that. But we need others to look at the bigger picture. And I think one of the and that's why I mentioned.
01:10:36:07 - 01:10:39:00
Janos Pasztor
This thing about capitalism earlier is that.
01:10:39:02 - 01:10:40:00
Janos Pasztor
Fundamentally.
01:10:40:00 - 01:10:43:07
Janos Pasztor
The capitalist economy.
01:10:43:09 - 01:10:47:10
Janos Pasztor
Is essentially dependent on resource extraction.
01:10:47:12 - 01:10:55:11
Janos Pasztor
That is the the fundamental basis. And, some have questioned whether the capitalist system can.
01:10:55:11 - 01:10:57:22
Janos Pasztor
Actually evolve into a.
01:10:57:22 - 01:11:00:15
Janos Pasztor
Different kind of system, which does not.
01:11:00:16 - 01:11:01:09
Janos Pasztor
Depend.
01:11:01:15 - 01:11:11:24
Janos Pasztor
On resource extraction, but depends on other ways of moving forward. And we'll always need resources to have bathtubs and, you know, iPads and so on. So that's not the point.
01:11:12:01 - 01:11:14:21
Janos Pasztor
But it is. The whole system.
01:11:14:21 - 01:11:20:19
Janos Pasztor
Is really built on resource extraction. And, and you see that in.
01:11:20:21 - 01:11:24:06
Janos Pasztor
Even the way the, the, today, the geopolitical.
01:11:24:06 - 01:11:25:21
Janos Pasztor
Thinking we have to.
01:11:25:23 - 01:11:27:03
Janos Pasztor
Do to, to get.
01:11:27:03 - 01:11:40:22
Janos Pasztor
The resources of Greenland, we have to ensure that, the, the resources in the Middle East, the oil and the gas, are can be controlled by us, whatever the US is, you know.
01:11:40:24 - 01:11:45:05
Janos Pasztor
It's the same thing. So, this is this is a real challenge.
01:11:45:05 - 01:11:46:10
Janos Pasztor
And and this needs.
01:11:46:10 - 01:11:48:01
Janos Pasztor
Some, some more.
01:11:48:01 - 01:11:50:19
Janos Pasztor
Thinking and a and I think a separate podcast as
01:11:50:19 - 01:11:51:10
Janos Pasztor
well.
01:11:51:12 - 01:12:09:15
Christian Soschner
Yeah. Yeah. No, I agree to that. It's an interesting point. I never thought about it this way, but I let's go back to the political scene. So politician sets the framework and you had a lot of discussions with politicians in the last decades. What was the craziest thing a world leader has said to you about climate change?
01:12:29:14 - 01:12:30:23
Janos Pasztor
I think there are lots.
01:12:30:23 - 01:12:43:07
Janos Pasztor
Of crazy things that were said by, by leaders, you know, it was whether, you know, they, they, they thought that, the UN process was helpful or not. But I give.
01:12:43:07 - 01:12:43:17
Janos Pasztor
You one.
01:12:43:17 - 01:13:09:00
Janos Pasztor
One interesting one. So I, as often at that time, I accompanied the UN Secretary-General for his, his, meetings as missions to different countries. And we went to a country that does not need to be identified, and had, the typical working dinner with the prime minister, and did that's the way it works is you have the Secretary-General, that's his advisors on one side.
01:13:09:00 - 01:13:18:00
Janos Pasztor
And the Prime Minister gives his ministers and other advisors on the other. And, we're chatting about climate change and the upcoming conference of the parties.
01:13:18:00 - 01:13:19:03
Janos Pasztor
And then the.
01:13:19:03 - 01:13:20:21
Janos Pasztor
Prime minister makes,
01:13:20:23 - 01:13:22:21
Janos Pasztor
A really weird.
01:13:22:23 - 01:13:33:19
Janos Pasztor
Proposal in how to manage, the conference of the parties. And I was sitting there said, wondering, how is the Secretary-General going to
01:13:33:19 - 01:13:36:08
Janos Pasztor
respond to this?
01:13:36:10 - 01:13:40:08
Janos Pasztor
And you know what he did? He says, well, I think maybe Mr..
01:13:40:08 - 01:13:43:21
Janos Pasztor
Pastore should respond to.
01:13:43:23 - 01:13:44:14
Janos Pasztor
So I had to.
01:13:44:14 - 01:13:45:08
Janos Pasztor
Invent something,
01:13:45:08 - 01:13:54:19
Janos Pasztor
you know, that that wouldn't cause any diplomatic, problems and so on. But, at the end, none of that proposal happened.
01:13:54:19 - 01:13:58:05
Janos Pasztor
But these things come up and, and and one had to.
01:13:58:07 - 01:14:03:01
Janos Pasztor
Has to find ways to, to deal with that. But anyway, there you go. Mr..
01:14:03:03 - 01:14:06:10
Christian Soschner
So he clearly trusted in your ability.
01:14:06:12 - 01:14:08:21
Janos Pasztor
What to do to to to make sure.
01:14:08:21 - 01:14:12:20
Janos Pasztor
That nothing happens.
01:14:12:23 - 01:14:30:00
Christian Soschner
But I found what I found interesting in the preparation material. You wrote that, spaghetti bolognese led to a Swiss UN resolution on geoengineering, and this was a part that I was thinking for a whole week about how spaghetti bolognese linked together on engineering.
01:14:30:02 - 01:14:31:05
Janos Pasztor
Well, it's,
01:14:31:05 - 01:14:48:10
Janos Pasztor
it's not, except that, the to the extent that, I knew some a senior official in the Swiss government, from before and when I started work on, the governance of geoengineering, in 2016.
01:14:49:03 - 01:15:02:13
Janos Pasztor
I decided to visit him to talk about these issues. So we, we met in a nice, Italian restaurant and had spaghetti bolognese, which was very good. And by the time we finished the spaghetti.
01:15:02:14 - 01:15:03:14
Janos Pasztor
The what came.
01:15:03:14 - 01:15:04:00
Janos Pasztor
Out of our.
01:15:04:00 - 01:15:07:16
Janos Pasztor
Discussion was that it was really important to do.
01:15:07:16 - 01:15:10:09
Janos Pasztor
Something about this governance issue.
01:15:10:11 - 01:15:11:07
Janos Pasztor
In.
01:15:11:09 - 01:15:13:15
Janos Pasztor
The appropriate intergovernmental forum.
01:15:13:15 - 01:15:15:03
Janos Pasztor
And, what came out of.
01:15:15:03 - 01:15:21:22
Janos Pasztor
That meeting was that the UN Environment Assembly should, in fact, address this issue one way or another. And so.
01:15:21:22 - 01:15:22:08
Janos Pasztor
What came.
01:15:22:08 - 01:15:26:22
Janos Pasztor
Out of that, after some consultations and discussions?
01:15:26:24 - 01:15:27:21
Janos Pasztor
Was that the Swiss.
01:15:27:21 - 01:15:44:01
Janos Pasztor
Government actually put in a draft resolution, in 2019 to the UN Environment Assembly on the governance of geo engineering. And, this is something we, catalyzed at my previous job that that, kindly climate governance.
01:15:44:01 - 01:15:45:06
Janos Pasztor
Initiative.
01:15:45:08 - 01:15:49:23
Janos Pasztor
And, we felt quite proud of this, that it happened and.
01:15:50:00 - 01:15:52:04
Janos Pasztor
It, it generated the first.
01:15:52:04 - 01:15:56:10
Janos Pasztor
Inter-Governmental consideration of this issue in a major way.
01:15:56:12 - 01:15:57:11
Janos Pasztor
It was not the.
01:15:57:11 - 01:16:05:07
Janos Pasztor
Resolution was not successful. It was withdrawn, for lack of consensus, but and, from our perspective at that.
01:16:05:07 - 01:16:06:05
Janos Pasztor
Time, it was really.
01:16:06:05 - 01:16:26:17
Janos Pasztor
The most important first step to actually start the conversation, at the intergovernmental level of, this issue. And then again, they it came back in, last year, by again, Switzerland, trying a different resolution. It was still not successful for different reasons.
01:16:26:19 - 01:16:31:09
Janos Pasztor
But the fact is that it's on the agenda. It's not going to go away.
01:16:31:11 - 01:16:33:15
Janos Pasztor
And that's the important part.
01:16:33:17 - 01:16:35:20
Janos Pasztor
And when governments are ready, they will they.
01:16:35:20 - 01:16:36:10
Janos Pasztor
Will come to a
01:16:36:10 - 01:16:37:14
Janos Pasztor
conclusion.
01:16:37:16 - 01:17:04:09
Christian Soschner
Kids love spaghetti bolognese away. Know with your story to motivate them to think about climate change and to your engineering. I love playing science fiction games since since I was a kid. And there was always this idea of of terraforming. So you just, populate space and you find the planet that is basically dead, uninhabited, you terraform it and you send in the settlers and boom, you have expanded your civilization.
01:17:04:11 - 01:17:15:24
Christian Soschner
When we talk about geo engineering, engineering, it gave engineering. I think it's threats to him, engineering in terms of climate change, what's the role of engineering in reality? Okay, so it's kind of terraforming.
01:17:16:01 - 01:17:16:06
Janos Pasztor
So
01:17:16:06 - 01:17:21:03
Janos Pasztor
geoengineering and terraforming are different, but they can of some part.
01:17:21:03 - 01:17:22:14
Janos Pasztor
Of it can overlap. So geo.
01:17:22:14 - 01:17:25:07
Janos Pasztor
Engineering is basically large scale.
01:17:25:07 - 01:17:30:03
Janos Pasztor
Intervention in the climate system to make it better.
01:17:30:05 - 01:17:32:18
Janos Pasztor
And there are essentially two groups.
01:17:32:18 - 01:17:44:22
Janos Pasztor
Of techniques that one thinks of as geoengineering. One is large scale removal of excess carbon from the atmosphere, carbon dioxide removal, or Cd-R or the short term.
01:17:44:24 - 01:17:48:08
Janos Pasztor
And we already have too much carbon. So there are.
01:17:48:09 - 01:17:52:23
Janos Pasztor
Developments on how to remove that carbon from the atmosphere. The other.
01:17:52:23 - 01:17:53:07
Janos Pasztor
One.
01:17:53:12 - 01:17:59:16
Janos Pasztor
Is solar radiation modification or some people call it solar geoengineering.
01:17:59:18 - 01:18:02:11
Janos Pasztor
It's essentially to cool the planet.
01:18:02:11 - 01:18:08:18
Janos Pasztor
To change the reflectivity, the albedo of the Earth, so that some of the incoming sunlight goes right back into.
01:18:08:18 - 01:18:09:05
Janos Pasztor
Space.
01:18:09:10 - 01:18:14:12
Janos Pasztor
And therefore, forced the planet. There are different techniques of, both.
01:18:14:12 - 01:18:15:10
Janos Pasztor
Carbon removal.
01:18:15:10 - 01:18:25:14
Janos Pasztor
And solar radiation modification. They're quite different. They have different governance challenges. They have different costs, different, engagement of of private sector.
01:18:25:16 - 01:18:31:09
Janos Pasztor
So we have to think about these two as quite different. In fact, they're so different that, many have stopped.
01:18:31:09 - 01:18:34:07
Janos Pasztor
Using the term geoengineering altogether because.
01:18:34:07 - 01:18:36:22
Janos Pasztor
It's not helpful to to put them all.
01:18:37:01 - 01:18:37:17
Janos Pasztor
Together.
01:18:37:17 - 01:18:39:04
Janos Pasztor
So it is better to.
01:18:39:06 - 01:18:40:06
Janos Pasztor
Talk about carbon.
01:18:40:06 - 01:18:41:08
Janos Pasztor
Removal on the one hand.
01:18:41:13 - 01:18:55:07
Janos Pasztor
And solar radiation modification on, the other. And, in terms of carbon removal, there are nature based solutions like planting trees, increasing the carbon content of the soils.
01:18:55:09 - 01:18:58:24
Janos Pasztor
Or using machines that literally use.
01:18:59:02 - 01:19:17:08
Janos Pasztor
Using chemical reactions to absorb the atmospheric carbon dioxide. And then once it's absorbed, then you can do all kinds of chemical things to, to, to, to, fix it. And then you can store it underground under the sea or in different ways. So that's the carbon removal.
01:19:17:08 - 01:19:18:05
Janos Pasztor
Solar radiation.
01:19:18:05 - 01:19:19:10
Janos Pasztor
Modification.
01:19:19:12 - 01:19:22:12
Janos Pasztor
Do you can start at the ground level.
01:19:22:14 - 01:19:27:23
Janos Pasztor
By painting your roof white or covering a glacier with a plastic.
01:19:27:23 - 01:19:29:00
Janos Pasztor
Sheet.
01:19:29:02 - 01:19:32:17
Janos Pasztor
Or covering some of the Arctic ice with, silica balls.
01:19:32:22 - 01:19:33:20
Janos Pasztor
Those are all.
01:19:33:23 - 01:19:38:04
Janos Pasztor
Ground level based, solar radiation modification.
01:19:38:06 - 01:19:40:15
Janos Pasztor
And they only relate to a.
01:19:40:17 - 01:19:42:19
Janos Pasztor
Particular local area.
01:19:42:21 - 01:19:45:10
Janos Pasztor
Then you can go to the regional level.
01:19:45:12 - 01:19:59:12
Janos Pasztor
There's still something called marine cloud brightening. As you know, if you're under a cloud, it's cooler than being directly in the sun. So the Australian government, for example, has been experimenting with marine cloud brightening for some time to.
01:19:59:14 - 01:20:00:12
Janos Pasztor
Cool the whole.
01:20:00:12 - 01:20:11:00
Janos Pasztor
Region of the Great Barrier Reef. And, whether that's going to work or not, that still remains to be seen. But it's it's a promising, method, but the.
01:20:11:00 - 01:20:12:06
Janos Pasztor
One that is most.
01:20:12:08 - 01:20:17:08
Janos Pasztor
Controversial and most challenging is the so-called stratospheric aerosol injection.
01:20:17:10 - 01:20:18:14
Janos Pasztor
Which is like.
01:20:18:14 - 01:20:22:02
Janos Pasztor
A volcanic eruption. You put aerosols into the.
01:20:22:04 - 01:20:23:07
Janos Pasztor
Stratosphere.
01:20:23:09 - 01:20:27:03
Janos Pasztor
Usually from airplanes or maybe balloons.
01:20:27:05 - 01:20:29:04
Janos Pasztor
It spreads out. And the little.
01:20:29:04 - 01:20:36:14
Janos Pasztor
Particles, these aerosols reflect more of the sunlight back into space and thereby cools the planet. It's quite.
01:20:36:14 - 01:20:38:17
Janos Pasztor
Controversial, but it's the only.
01:20:38:17 - 01:21:00:23
Janos Pasztor
Technology that is out there that can, potentially reduce global temperatures in a short enough time to avoid some of the impacts. We were talking about earlier on the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and, the increasing emissions. That's the only potential technology that is available.
01:21:01:02 - 01:21:02:14
Janos Pasztor
But it's controversial.
01:21:02:16 - 01:21:05:16
Janos Pasztor
Very challenging. Not enough is known in terms of the science.
01:21:05:16 - 01:21:06:18
Janos Pasztor
We don't have.
01:21:06:18 - 01:21:12:16
Janos Pasztor
Enough knowledge of the risks and benefits to either reject or to accept, this
01:21:12:16 - 01:21:14:01
Janos Pasztor
technology.
01:21:14:03 - 01:21:34:16
Christian Soschner
So these are real technologies. It's not a conspiracy theory because I've never read something about it on Facebook or on Xcom. I can't this is history of people working on that. Or is this just something that someone made up from a science fiction movie? So these are real technologies, but people are working on it with the intent, to do something against climate change.
01:21:34:18 - 01:21:36:16
Janos Pasztor
So the let
01:21:36:16 - 01:21:37:07
Janos Pasztor
me try to.
01:21:37:07 - 01:21:39:03
Janos Pasztor
To address the 4 or 5 points here.
01:21:39:03 - 01:21:41:09
Janos Pasztor
First of all, there are people.
01:21:41:09 - 01:21:46:02
Janos Pasztor
Working on all of these technologies in terms of research and development.
01:21:46:04 - 01:21:50:19
Janos Pasztor
Nobody is doing actually.
01:21:50:21 - 01:21:54:14
Janos Pasztor
Climate modification through solar radiation modification.
01:21:54:14 - 01:21:56:01
Janos Pasztor
Other than some of the.
01:21:56:01 - 01:22:07:12
Janos Pasztor
Traditional ground based methods of white houses and things like that. Nobody's doing any of that. It's only at a research and development, phase.
01:22:07:14 - 01:22:13:24
Janos Pasztor
But people are working on these and, at the moment, no government, no.
01:22:13:24 - 01:22:19:00
Janos Pasztor
Society has decided that, there is social license for this, that we want.
01:22:19:00 - 01:22:19:13
Janos Pasztor
To do it.
01:22:19:13 - 01:22:25:11
Janos Pasztor
So whatever developments are taking place, they're happening in a vacuum of, of of.
01:22:25:11 - 01:22:26:12
Janos Pasztor
Social goals.
01:22:26:12 - 01:22:30:01
Janos Pasztor
And objectives. Now.
01:22:30:03 - 01:22:34:11
Janos Pasztor
The conspiracy there is something called.
01:22:34:13 - 01:22:40:12
Janos Pasztor
Contrails. You know, the airplanes that they leave the, the, the vapor trails.
01:22:40:12 - 01:22:41:22
Janos Pasztor
Now, many.
01:22:41:24 - 01:22:44:08
Janos Pasztor
Believe in the conspiracy world that.
01:22:44:08 - 01:22:50:18
Janos Pasztor
That is solar geoengineering, solar radiation modification, and, that governments.
01:22:50:18 - 01:22:50:21
Janos Pasztor
Are.
01:22:50:21 - 01:22:57:06
Janos Pasztor
Secretly doing this not so much to cool the planet, but to, reduce population.
01:22:57:06 - 01:22:57:12
Janos Pasztor
And.
01:22:57:12 - 01:23:10:08
Janos Pasztor
Increase manhood, whatever. You know, it's there's all kinds of stories. Of course, none of that is true. But there are a lot of people who think about that. And if you type,
01:23:10:10 - 01:23:12:05
Janos Pasztor
Things like solar geoengineering into.
01:23:12:05 - 01:23:13:04
Janos Pasztor
Google, you get a lot of.
01:23:13:04 - 01:23:15:08
Janos Pasztor
This, conspiracy theories.
01:23:15:08 - 01:23:21:03
Janos Pasztor
And then the two can often interact. You have, I think at least one, if.
01:23:21:03 - 01:23:23:04
Janos Pasztor
Not more states in the United States that.
01:23:23:04 - 01:23:31:09
Janos Pasztor
Have said that we are, we will not allow, this kind of geoengineering activity.
01:23:31:11 - 01:23:32:03
Janos Pasztor
To take place.
01:23:32:03 - 01:23:34:02
Janos Pasztor
But in fact, what they meant is the other.
01:23:34:02 - 01:23:36:20
Janos Pasztor
Kind that is in the conspiracy theories.
01:23:36:20 - 01:23:39:02
Janos Pasztor
So it gets confusing. And one needs to.
01:23:39:02 - 01:23:40:04
Janos Pasztor
Be very clear. But in.
01:23:40:04 - 01:23:41:18
Janos Pasztor
Terms of climate.
01:23:41:18 - 01:23:45:09
Janos Pasztor
Modification, at the large scale, it is not happening.
01:23:45:15 - 01:23:49:10
Janos Pasztor
In as as actual activities. They are happening.
01:23:49:10 - 01:23:53:06
Janos Pasztor
In terms of researching and developing technologies that one.
01:23:53:06 - 01:23:55:18
Janos Pasztor
Day, could be used.
01:23:55:18 - 01:23:58:14
Janos Pasztor
If governments decided to go ahead and do that.
01:23:59:09 - 01:24:15:19
Christian Soschner
You mentioned a lot of technologies. Can we walk through each one separately and just discussed briefly what's the potential and what's the risk in the development stage so that they have a good understanding of, yeah, yeah. Let's start. Yeah. Please go ahead.
01:24:15:21 - 01:24:17:02
Janos Pasztor
Where do you want to start?
01:24:17:04 - 01:24:35:00
Christian Soschner
Yeah. No, I, let's start with carbon. Carbon dioxide removal. I grew up in Styria, and, Styria has a lot of woods, and I love trees. And that I've watched. And my best childhood memories are with my grandparents on the farm. And they had a lot of, what's surrounding the farm. And it was so, so much fun playing with that.
01:24:35:02 - 01:24:56:13
Christian Soschner
But I think about carbon dioxide removal. I always the first thoughts that pops up in my mind is trees. Why not plants? Trees? Isn't that enough to handle these problems? Let's just plant globally more trees, and then we don't need technology. Why does it not work? And why do we still need technology to address this problem?
01:24:56:13 - 01:25:01:08
Janos Pasztor
Okay, because the challenge is not just to absorb the.
01:25:01:08 - 01:25:01:16
Janos Pasztor
Carbon
01:25:01:16 - 01:25:02:15
Janos Pasztor
dioxide into.
01:25:02:15 - 01:25:27:05
Janos Pasztor
Something, but then what happens to that once you absorb it? If you grow a tree, it's true. It absorbs carbon dioxide, but then you take the tree and burn it, and the CO2 goes right back into the atmosphere. If the tree rots, the CO2 goes right back into the atmosphere. So one has to be very careful about what happens once the absorption takes place.
01:25:27:11 - 01:25:30:19
Janos Pasztor
And we have examples.
01:25:30:21 - 01:25:33:21
Janos Pasztor
Of, for example, the state of California planted a whole.
01:25:33:21 - 01:25:37:21
Janos Pasztor
Forest to offset its future emissions. And guess what.
01:25:37:21 - 01:25:38:18
Janos Pasztor
Happened in one of the.
01:25:38:18 - 01:25:43:01
Janos Pasztor
Wildfires? That forest burned down, so there was no offsetting.
01:25:43:01 - 01:25:44:22
Janos Pasztor
Of the future emissions.
01:25:44:24 - 01:26:10:11
Janos Pasztor
That's this is this is the challenge with some of the nature based solutions. I think many of the nature based solutions are very important, very useful for their many environmental social considerations. And in some cases, they can also help in the carbon management. But most of the time, if you really want carbon removal and storage and isolation.
01:26:10:11 - 01:26:11:19
Janos Pasztor
From the atmosphere.
01:26:11:21 - 01:26:14:17
Janos Pasztor
Then the nature based solutions are less.
01:26:14:17 - 01:26:25:06
Janos Pasztor
Important. And then you really have to think of the technology, based, solutions. And, and that's, that's the reality now.
01:26:25:08 - 01:26:26:06
Janos Pasztor
Private sector is.
01:26:26:06 - 01:26:40:05
Janos Pasztor
Working on these issues. There is, a thousand flowers are blooming and, it's a it will be $1 trillion business. And so there's a lot happening there. And that's fine. And that's the way it needs to be.
01:26:40:07 - 01:26:41:00
Janos Pasztor
There are many.
01:26:41:00 - 01:26:49:23
Janos Pasztor
Governance challenges that are open. For example, who's going to pay for all this? Who is responsible and therefore who will pay?
01:26:50:00 - 01:26:53:20
Janos Pasztor
How do you make sure that whatever a.
01:26:53:20 - 01:26:54:20
Janos Pasztor
Company says.
01:26:54:20 - 01:26:56:04
Janos Pasztor
Is removed?
01:26:56:04 - 01:26:57:05
Janos Pasztor
Is it actually.
01:26:57:05 - 01:26:57:24
Janos Pasztor
True?
01:26:58:01 - 01:27:03:08
Janos Pasztor
You know, the whole MRV measure, report, verify. How will that happen, especially.
01:27:03:14 - 01:27:05:02
Janos Pasztor
If the carbon moves from one.
01:27:05:02 - 01:27:06:09
Janos Pasztor
Country to another, which.
01:27:06:09 - 01:27:06:24
Janos Pasztor
Already.
01:27:06:24 - 01:27:10:23
Janos Pasztor
Is happening, by in, for example, in Europe.
01:27:10:23 - 01:27:12:07
Janos Pasztor
So there's many, many.
01:27:12:07 - 01:27:13:09
Janos Pasztor
Questions like that.
01:27:13:09 - 01:27:15:06
Janos Pasztor
And then very importantly.
01:27:15:06 - 01:27:16:16
Janos Pasztor
As, as many would say.
01:27:16:16 - 01:27:18:12
Janos Pasztor
That even talking.
01:27:18:17 - 01:27:20:12
Janos Pasztor
About these new techniques, let.
01:27:20:12 - 01:27:21:03
Janos Pasztor
Alone doing.
01:27:21:03 - 01:27:21:12
Janos Pasztor
Them.
01:27:21:17 - 01:27:32:00
Janos Pasztor
Might take away the interest from actually removing, fossil fuel use to start with because you say, oh, well, we just continue fossil fuels and then we.
01:27:32:00 - 01:27:35:08
Janos Pasztor
Can remove it later. And, that's called the moral hazard.
01:27:35:08 - 01:27:39:06
Janos Pasztor
And that's a real issue. And that means that important governance decisions.
01:27:39:06 - 01:27:41:24
Janos Pasztor
Need to be in place to make sure that it doesn't happen.
01:27:42:01 - 01:27:42:16
Janos Pasztor
So that's on.
01:27:42:16 - 01:27:44:24
Janos Pasztor
The carbon removal side.
01:27:45:01 - 01:27:52:17
Janos Pasztor
On the solar radiation modification side, I think the, the, the, the two big challenges are.
01:27:52:19 - 01:27:57:21
Janos Pasztor
The marine cloud brightening and, stratospheric aerosol injection.
01:27:57:21 - 01:27:58:14
Janos Pasztor
And both are.
01:27:58:14 - 01:28:01:17
Janos Pasztor
Being experimented with in various.
01:28:01:17 - 01:28:02:16
Janos Pasztor
Contexts.
01:28:02:18 - 01:28:19:07
Janos Pasztor
And neither of them have clear decision by governments, to actually go ahead and do it. And, it requires, more research in terms of the science to, to, to understand the risks and the benefits.
01:28:19:13 - 01:28:22:21
Janos Pasztor
And it gets very complex because there's only one global atmosphere.
01:28:22:21 - 01:28:27:00
Janos Pasztor
Right? So you in terms of stratospheric aerosol injection in particular, you.
01:28:27:00 - 01:28:27:17
Janos Pasztor
Would be.
01:28:27:19 - 01:28:29:20
Janos Pasztor
Manipulating that one global.
01:28:29:20 - 01:28:31:24
Janos Pasztor
Atmosphere. We only have one. You can't mess it
01:28:31:24 - 01:28:32:19
Janos Pasztor
up.
01:28:32:21 - 01:28:55:14
Christian Soschner
So you can do a B testing. Let's bit carbon carbon carbon dioxide. Let's let's move on to it twice to SRM. So for my understanding, just to repeat what I heard and to make sure that they got the right understanding. So basically the problem with, CO2 emissions is because, nature has stored CO2 in oil and gas.
01:28:55:16 - 01:29:13:09
Christian Soschner
Over millions of years, and now is a human race, with the growing population, we burn oil and gas at scale and put back into the atmosphere. Both were stored over millions of years, but in more or less 100 years. And this is not this is far too much and has a warming effect on, on on the atmosphere.
01:29:13:09 - 01:29:26:20
Christian Soschner
In total, the natural solutions are not strong enough to counter this effect. So just planting more trees is not sufficient. We need technology to just pull out more CO2 emissions from the atmosphere.
01:29:26:22 - 01:29:27:19
Janos Pasztor
Yeah, to
01:29:27:19 - 01:29:29:19
Janos Pasztor
reach our climate goals.
01:29:29:19 - 01:29:35:23
Janos Pasztor
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, by the middle of this century.
01:29:36:00 - 01:29:39:23
Janos Pasztor
The world needs to be removing off the order of ten to.
01:29:39:23 - 01:29:42:14
Janos Pasztor
20 gigatons per annum.
01:29:42:16 - 01:29:52:20
Janos Pasztor
It's huge number. It's it's just a very, very large number. Now, some of the nature based solutions can help. They can they can perhaps.
01:29:52:22 - 01:29:54:11
Janos Pasztor
Do 1 or 2 gigatons.
01:29:54:11 - 01:30:02:24
Janos Pasztor
And, you know, sometimes isolating it for a few years is still good because right now we're racing against time. There are so-called tipping points.
01:30:02:24 - 01:30:05:19
Janos Pasztor
I don't know whether we have time to discuss that, but.
01:30:05:21 - 01:30:13:07
Janos Pasztor
It's it's, it's, you know, we we are already reaching the the climate goal of the.
01:30:13:07 - 01:30:15:21
Janos Pasztor
Paris Agreement, a 1.5 degree.
01:30:15:23 - 01:30:20:23
Janos Pasztor
And, many believe that we have started the so-called tipping points.
01:30:20:23 - 01:30:21:16
Janos Pasztor
Where.
01:30:21:18 - 01:30:22:19
Janos Pasztor
Something happens.
01:30:22:19 - 01:30:27:23
Janos Pasztor
To ecosystems which cannot be undone. So if the Arctic ice melts.
01:30:28:00 - 01:30:29:24
Janos Pasztor
Or if the,
01:30:30:01 - 01:30:32:21
Janos Pasztor
Amazon turns into a savannah.
01:30:32:23 - 01:30:37:15
Janos Pasztor
Or if the, the Atlantic circulation.
01:30:37:17 - 01:30:43:18
Janos Pasztor
That takes warm water from the tropics up to the cold north stops or slows down.
01:30:43:21 - 01:30:58:02
Janos Pasztor
Those are things that we cannot undo. And then the the impacts on the environment, on people, on the ecosystems will be huge. Those are these tipping points. And these tipping points will not happen over, you know, like midnight.
01:30:58:04 - 01:31:01:04
Janos Pasztor
At the end of August 31st or something like.
01:31:01:04 - 01:31:08:13
Janos Pasztor
That. It's over a period of time. But many believe that we are already in and we have already started some of these.
01:31:08:13 - 01:31:10:18
Janos Pasztor
Tipping points and others.
01:31:10:20 - 01:31:20:21
Janos Pasztor
To come. So we don't want to go above the 1.5 degrees, because that can result in, in uncharted territory. We don't quite.
01:31:20:21 - 01:31:22:00
Janos Pasztor
Know what will happen.
01:31:22:00 - 01:31:24:04
Janos Pasztor
Some call it the the hothouse.
01:31:24:04 - 01:31:27:08
Janos Pasztor
Earth that we might be heading toward, and we want to avoid.
01:31:27:08 - 01:31:39:05
Janos Pasztor
That. So coming back to carbon removal, even if you you can isolate some of the carbon for a few years, you're gaining some time. So it's not bad to do. Don't misunderstand the nature based.
01:31:39:05 - 01:31:40:16
Janos Pasztor
Solutions are very important.
01:31:40:21 - 01:31:46:01
Janos Pasztor
But to go for the big stuff, you know, there are many gigatons per annum there.
01:31:46:03 - 01:31:53:00
Janos Pasztor
You will have to, rely on, on, on and technology based carbon removal.
01:31:53:00 - 01:32:05:17
Christian Soschner
now, if I understood it, but in principle, we need to we need a mix of, natural. So the oceans, we need to drive down the, the emissions of carbon dioxide, and also remove it to have a lasting effect on the climate.
01:32:05:20 - 01:32:06:17
Janos Pasztor
Yeah.
01:32:06:19 - 01:32:10:02
Janos Pasztor
So, yes, but let me just maybe go back to this. So.
01:32:12:06 - 01:32:12:22
Janos Pasztor
The problem.
01:32:12:22 - 01:32:16:24
Janos Pasztor
Is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. So the.
01:32:16:24 - 01:32:20:16
Janos Pasztor
First thing to do is to reduce the quantity we put.
01:32:20:16 - 01:32:25:03
Janos Pasztor
In. I reduce our emissions. Okay. That's the number one, the.
01:32:25:03 - 01:32:25:18
Janos Pasztor
Absolute.
01:32:25:18 - 01:32:27:05
Janos Pasztor
Number one priority.
01:32:27:07 - 01:32:30:01
Janos Pasztor
Because whatever else we do, if we continue to.
01:32:30:01 - 01:32:32:07
Janos Pasztor
Increase the emissions.
01:32:32:09 - 01:32:33:06
Janos Pasztor
Then, you know, we're.
01:32:33:06 - 01:32:34:12
Janos Pasztor
Running around in a circle.
01:32:34:12 - 01:32:38:17
Janos Pasztor
So reduce emissions. Secondly, we already have too.
01:32:38:17 - 01:32:40:00
Janos Pasztor
Much carbon in the atmosphere.
01:32:40:00 - 01:32:46:19
Janos Pasztor
In fact, I thought experiment one can run is what happens if tomorrow all the emissions stop.
01:32:46:21 - 01:32:51:01
Janos Pasztor
Which of course is not possible. That's why it's a thought experiment. But.
01:32:51:03 - 01:32:55:03
Janos Pasztor
If all emissions stopped, then there will be still a little bit of.
01:32:55:03 - 01:32:57:05
Janos Pasztor
Increase because of the inertia of the.
01:32:57:05 - 01:33:05:06
Janos Pasztor
System. But essentially at that point, there, the global average temperature remain. Where it is.
01:33:05:08 - 01:33:14:16
Janos Pasztor
Right now, it's it's around it's hitting 1.5. Then in terms of the, the average. Right. Soon, it's still officially 1.3.
01:33:14:16 - 01:33:16:11
Janos Pasztor
But
01:33:16:13 - 01:33:24:09
Janos Pasztor
But the last few years have been very hot and always the hottest. So the, the average, the 20 year average will soon, go to the 1.5.
01:33:24:12 - 01:33:27:22
Janos Pasztor
And then it will stay like that for hundreds of years to come, hundreds of.
01:33:27:22 - 01:33:28:06
Janos Pasztor
Years to.
01:33:28:06 - 01:33:40:22
Janos Pasztor
Come. Which means that the impacts we are facing today will remain with us for hundreds of years to come. And that's why, we have to remove some of the excess carbon that is there already.
01:33:40:24 - 01:33:43:14
Janos Pasztor
Whatever we do with emission reductions.
01:33:43:16 - 01:33:46:21
Janos Pasztor
Of course, the worse we do with emission reductions, the more.
01:33:46:21 - 01:33:49:08
Janos Pasztor
Carbon we have to remove. Later on.
01:33:49:08 - 01:33:58:15
Janos Pasztor
So that's the that's the challenge. So yes, reduce emissions, bring them down to zero initially net zero because we will.
01:33:58:15 - 01:34:00:10
Janos Pasztor
Do some emissions and some.
01:34:00:10 - 01:34:04:24
Janos Pasztor
Offsets. Yeah. Then absolute zero and then negative emissions and.
01:34:04:24 - 01:34:10:10
Janos Pasztor
Negative emissions are the carbon removal. So that we end up with the.
01:34:10:12 - 01:34:11:05
Janos Pasztor
Greenhouse.
01:34:11:05 - 01:34:17:18
Janos Pasztor
Gas concentration that is acceptable in terms of the overall heat balance of the Earth.
01:34:17:20 - 01:34:19:15
Janos Pasztor
Right now we're at last. I looked.
01:34:19:15 - 01:34:21:06
Janos Pasztor
At it. I think it's.
01:34:21:08 - 01:34:22:22
Janos Pasztor
420.
01:34:22:22 - 01:34:27:10
Janos Pasztor
Something for 27 parts per million, CO2.
01:34:30:04 - 01:34:32:15
Janos Pasztor
And.
01:34:32:17 - 01:34:37:23
Janos Pasztor
Base pre-industrial was to 80 and it was three something.
01:34:37:23 - 01:34:40:15
Janos Pasztor
When we started measuring it in the 50s.
01:34:40:15 - 01:34:42:01
Janos Pasztor
So, you know, we are way above.
01:34:42:01 - 01:34:43:00
Janos Pasztor
Where we, we ought to.
01:34:43:00 - 01:34:45:13
Janos Pasztor
Be. So the question is, what is the.
01:34:45:13 - 01:34:50:00
Janos Pasztor
Acceptable level of greenhouse gas concentrations? And
01:34:50:02 - 01:34:50:10
Janos Pasztor
Many.
01:34:50:10 - 01:34:57:20
Janos Pasztor
People believe that. 350 something that is probably okay, you know, let's see. But we are way above that.
01:34:57:22 - 01:35:03:01
Christian Soschner
Okay, okay, okay. This is not a problem. That goes away pretty soon and by itself.
01:35:03:03 - 01:35:05:17
Janos Pasztor
And maybe that's a good way to to go.
01:35:05:17 - 01:35:09:03
Janos Pasztor
Into the solar radiation modification part, is that.
01:35:09:05 - 01:35:11:05
Janos Pasztor
It's pretty clear from.
01:35:11:08 - 01:35:12:13
Janos Pasztor
The experience so.
01:35:12:13 - 01:35:17:23
Janos Pasztor
Far that the emission reductions and the this new technique.
01:35:17:23 - 01:35:23:02
Janos Pasztor
Of reducing, carbon, removing carbon from the atmosphere.
01:35:23:06 - 01:35:31:04
Janos Pasztor
Is taking a long time. It's, by the time, for example, we really. Well, then net zero will.
01:35:31:04 - 01:35:32:22
Janos Pasztor
Be hopefully reached by
01:35:32:22 - 01:35:40:01
Janos Pasztor
mid-century. Okay. Which is still a long way, and the temperatures will keep rising in the meantime.
01:35:40:03 - 01:35:42:21
Janos Pasztor
And, then to go net.
01:35:42:21 - 01:35:45:00
Janos Pasztor
Negative, the new techniques, it will.
01:35:45:00 - 01:35:48:00
Janos Pasztor
Take some, some many, many years to reach.
01:35:48:00 - 01:35:49:17
Janos Pasztor
That 10 to 20 gigaton.
01:35:49:22 - 01:35:51:20
Janos Pasztor
Level or higher, depending on how.
01:35:51:24 - 01:35:52:16
Janos Pasztor
Successful.
01:35:52:16 - 01:35:53:13
Janos Pasztor
We are with.
01:35:53:13 - 01:35:57:08
Janos Pasztor
Our emission reductions. So,
01:35:57:10 - 01:36:00:13
Janos Pasztor
It's taking a long time. And in the meantime, the temperatures.
01:36:00:13 - 01:36:01:08
Janos Pasztor
Are rising
01:36:01:08 - 01:36:02:22
Janos Pasztor
and some are saying.
01:36:02:22 - 01:36:04:15
Janos Pasztor
That we need to then.
01:36:04:17 - 01:36:07:18
Janos Pasztor
Cool the planet, perhaps as a temporary.
01:36:07:24 - 01:36:08:23
Janos Pasztor
Emergency.
01:36:08:23 - 01:36:10:06
Janos Pasztor
Measure.
01:36:10:08 - 01:36:11:20
Janos Pasztor
Until we complete.
01:36:11:21 - 01:36:25:12
Janos Pasztor
The decarbonization process of the world. And that's why the the other part, the solar radiation modification or SRM discussions come into place or could come into place.
01:36:25:14 - 01:36:29:19
Janos Pasztor
To, to to cool the planet directly because.
01:36:29:19 - 01:36:30:10
Janos Pasztor
It's getting to.
01:36:30:10 - 01:36:42:01
Janos Pasztor
Warm and, and it's, you know, both of both the carbon removal and the solar radiation modification are kind of corrective actions. Then they are not part of what I.
01:36:42:01 - 01:36:53:12
Janos Pasztor
Would call the sustainable development. That's where the world needs to go. The sustainable development path being emission reductions. New food systems, circular.
01:36:53:12 - 01:36:54:10
Janos Pasztor
Economy.
01:36:54:10 - 01:36:58:23
Janos Pasztor
Different urban planning lifestyles, consumption patterns, all of that together.
01:36:59:03 - 01:36:59:13
Janos Pasztor
Is.
01:36:59:17 - 01:37:01:15
Janos Pasztor
The sustainable path.
01:37:01:17 - 01:37:10:00
Janos Pasztor
But we need to correct, it's not mistakes, but the the the inaction of the past. We have produced too.
01:37:10:00 - 01:37:13:15
Janos Pasztor
Much greenhouse gases. It's like too much garbage in the city.
01:37:13:15 - 01:37:21:03
Janos Pasztor
And you can have a clean, city policy. But before you have to, to, to implement a clean city, but you have to actually clean.
01:37:21:03 - 01:37:22:15
Janos Pasztor
Up the city.
01:37:22:17 - 01:37:31:08
Janos Pasztor
And the same is here with the atmosphere. So, we need to remove, some of this excess carbon, and we may actually need to.
01:37:31:10 - 01:37:34:00
Janos Pasztor
Pull the planet while doing all this.
01:37:34:00 - 01:37:36:02
Janos Pasztor
But that cooling the planet.
01:37:36:02 - 01:37:41:05
Janos Pasztor
Is seems to be very controversial. It is challenging. As I said, we don't know enough.
01:37:41:05 - 01:37:42:22
Janos Pasztor
Yet to decide.
01:37:42:22 - 01:37:44:20
Janos Pasztor
Or to reject. There's a lot of.
01:37:44:20 - 01:37:45:10
Janos Pasztor
Discussion.
01:37:45:10 - 01:37:52:20
Janos Pasztor
About it. Some of it is quite polarized, but nevertheless the the world is getting warm and the impacts are going to be increasingly
01:37:52:20 - 01:37:54:11
Janos Pasztor
catastrophic.
01:37:54:13 - 01:38:13:17
Christian Soschner
Okay. So our consumption basically leads to the effects of the planet heats up. And if we extrapolate that in the future, at one point in time, there will be extinction level, temperatures basically that, we ruin our possibility to live on the planet. And yes, pretty much a problem.
01:38:13:19 - 01:38:14:05
Janos Pasztor
Yeah.
01:38:14:05 - 01:38:40:21
Janos Pasztor
And you know that that temperature is we're getting close to that side. While scientific analysis has shown that, 1.5 is is a kind of a, you think of it as a scientific limit and up to a 1.5 degrees. Yeah. Even if we reached a 1.5 and steady like that, there will be lots of, negative impacts, some catastrophic.
01:38:40:21 - 01:38:41:19
Janos Pasztor
That big floods.
01:38:41:19 - 01:38:43:12
Janos Pasztor
And fires, thousands.
01:38:43:12 - 01:38:53:14
Janos Pasztor
And tens of thousands of people will die because of excess heat. Mind you already are. Tens of thousands are dying because of excess heat. So, countries will disappear in the Pacific.
01:38:53:14 - 01:39:08:11
Janos Pasztor
All of that will be happening. But the Earth system as a whole will be maintained, right? So 1.5 we can manage. It's we can adapt to some of these changes. We can find ways to, to.
01:39:08:13 - 01:39:11:11
Janos Pasztor
To compensate those who are really worse off and things like.
01:39:11:11 - 01:39:19:08
Janos Pasztor
That. When we go beyond the 1.5, then one begins to see increasingly impacts. And it's not just.
01:39:19:08 - 01:39:20:13
Janos Pasztor
The after, it's.
01:39:20:14 - 01:39:22:11
Janos Pasztor
Every one tenth of a degree matters.
01:39:22:11 - 01:39:24:00
Janos Pasztor
Right? It's it's continuous.
01:39:24:00 - 01:39:28:23
Janos Pasztor
But when you leave the 1.5, then you get into these.
01:39:29:00 - 01:39:29:20
Janos Pasztor
Scenarios.
01:39:29:20 - 01:39:33:04
Janos Pasztor
Where we don't really know how the totality.
01:39:33:04 - 01:39:35:09
Janos Pasztor
Of the Earth system will be impacted, and.
01:39:35:09 - 01:39:36:03
Janos Pasztor
Then it could.
01:39:36:09 - 01:39:43:23
Janos Pasztor
Result in, in, in impacts that we don't really understand the interactions with the biodiversity, with.
01:39:43:23 - 01:39:49:13
Janos Pasztor
The land, with the oceans. And, scientists believe that that's where.
01:39:49:13 - 01:39:49:20
Janos Pasztor
The.
01:39:49:20 - 01:39:50:20
Janos Pasztor
The sticking points.
01:39:50:20 - 01:39:53:05
Janos Pasztor
Will occur, which we just talked about briefly.
01:39:53:11 - 01:40:00:00
Janos Pasztor
So, you really want to avoid that? But that fact is that based on current.
01:40:00:02 - 01:40:01:15
Janos Pasztor
Policies of countries.
01:40:01:15 - 01:40:03:20
Janos Pasztor
We will be reaching two point.
01:40:03:20 - 01:40:06:16
Janos Pasztor
6 to 3 point one degrees centigrade by the end.
01:40:06:16 - 01:40:16:02
Janos Pasztor
Of this century, which is twice this limit. So, this is this is quite worrying. And this is, an analysis.
01:40:16:02 - 01:40:17:16
Janos Pasztor
By the UN Environment program.
01:40:17:21 - 01:40:20:14
Janos Pasztor
And honestly, it was done before, the.
01:40:20:14 - 01:40:30:03
Janos Pasztor
Recent elections in the United States. And the fact is that the impact of, the this, presidency on.
01:40:30:03 - 01:40:31:19
Janos Pasztor
Climate is a lot.
01:40:31:19 - 01:40:37:19
Janos Pasztor
Worse than as anybody, said would be the case.
01:40:37:21 - 01:40:41:17
Janos Pasztor
Both the direct effects and the indirect effects.
01:40:41:19 - 01:40:53:22
Janos Pasztor
On the totality of the climate situation in the world, direct meaning that, in the United States, the the efforts of the Biden administration will be slowed down.
01:40:53:24 - 01:40:55:00
Janos Pasztor
I think you can't get rid.
01:40:55:00 - 01:40:56:10
Janos Pasztor
Of it, but you can slow it.
01:40:56:10 - 01:41:00:17
Janos Pasztor
Down. And, there and under the best.
01:41:00:19 - 01:41:02:02
Janos Pasztor
Case scenario, there.
01:41:02:02 - 01:41:05:02
Janos Pasztor
Will be, slower move toward.
01:41:05:02 - 01:41:17:15
Janos Pasztor
Emission reductions in the United States than necessary, because even the Biden plan wouldn't have reached the Paris compatible goal. Okay, so even then, the US was below what was.
01:41:17:15 - 01:41:20:13
Janos Pasztor
Actually needed, but it was already at least moving.
01:41:20:13 - 01:41:21:05
Janos Pasztor
Forward.
01:41:21:07 - 01:41:22:21
Janos Pasztor
So and on the best case.
01:41:22:21 - 01:41:39:03
Janos Pasztor
Scenario on climate will be, a slower, a slowing down. The worst case could actually, increase emissions quite a bit in the United States. Did correctly. Now that's, that's these are the direct impacts.
01:41:39:05 - 01:41:40:15
Janos Pasztor
But then there are indirect.
01:41:40:15 - 01:41:47:19
Janos Pasztor
Impacts on the rest of the world. There are countries that are, sort of sitting on the fence, you know, they're.
01:41:47:19 - 01:41:49:02
Janos Pasztor
Not so sure they are.
01:41:49:02 - 01:41:52:07
Janos Pasztor
They're still part of the Paris Agreement.
01:41:52:09 - 01:41:53:12
Janos Pasztor
But who knows.
01:41:53:12 - 01:41:56:04
Janos Pasztor
Where where they might be. They look at the United States.
01:41:56:06 - 01:41:58:12
Janos Pasztor
Well, if they can do that, why don't.
01:41:58:12 - 01:42:03:22
Janos Pasztor
We also do something like that? And, and and.
01:42:03:22 - 01:42:04:18
Janos Pasztor
Then there are.
01:42:04:20 - 01:42:16:11
Janos Pasztor
The other indirect impacts, U.S financial aid disappearing. A lot of that was actually, going to be used in for, for climate purposes.
01:42:16:11 - 01:42:18:21
Janos Pasztor
So, all of that together.
01:42:18:21 - 01:42:25:13
Janos Pasztor
The indirect impacts can have very substantial impacts on achieving the currently set goals.
01:42:25:13 - 01:42:32:07
Janos Pasztor
So the 2.6 to 3.1 would actually be, we might see the the.
01:42:32:07 - 01:42:35:10
Janos Pasztor
New report, because this is an annual report by the UN Environment.
01:42:35:14 - 01:42:41:11
Janos Pasztor
Program. Maybe it will be, even higher. Who knows. But right now the situation.
01:42:41:11 - 01:42:42:07
Janos Pasztor
Does not look.
01:42:42:07 - 01:42:43:19
Janos Pasztor
Good. So given this.
01:42:43:19 - 01:42:45:23
Janos Pasztor
Sort of context,
01:42:46:00 - 01:42:49:02
Janos Pasztor
The, the the issue does arise.
01:42:49:02 - 01:42:49:10
Janos Pasztor
Does.
01:42:49:10 - 01:42:52:05
Janos Pasztor
One, should one.
01:42:52:07 - 01:42:54:20
Janos Pasztor
Good one do something about.
01:42:54:21 - 01:42:56:10
Janos Pasztor
Cooling the planet?
01:42:56:12 - 01:43:00:20
Janos Pasztor
And some scientists say, yes, we can and we should. And others are
01:43:00:20 - 01:43:08:16
Janos Pasztor
saying, oh no, not we shouldn't do that. This is we don't know enough to risk the benefits. You know, it doesn't quite work out.
01:43:08:18 - 01:43:17:07
Janos Pasztor
And then there are others, which is not sort of scientific, but important. Nevertheless, some people feel we should not do something like that.
01:43:17:07 - 01:43:18:21
Janos Pasztor
We should not act.
01:43:18:21 - 01:43:20:05
Janos Pasztor
Like gods
01:43:20:05 - 01:43:26:18
Janos Pasztor
who can manage the one global atmosphere, but we just simply shouldn't go there.
01:43:26:20 - 01:43:34:23
Janos Pasztor
And these are valid concerns of people. So one has to address that. And and right now we haven't had the proper conversation.
01:43:35:04 - 01:43:36:07
Janos Pasztor
About this at.
01:43:36:07 - 01:43:37:18
Janos Pasztor
National levels.
01:43:37:20 - 01:43:49:07
Janos Pasztor
And CERT and at international levels. To to to to get somewhere. Yet as especially something like stratospheric aerosol injection.
01:43:49:09 - 01:43:50:12
Janos Pasztor
It doesn't matter which.
01:43:50:12 - 01:43:57:17
Janos Pasztor
Scenario you use for that. It will have global impacts. So everybody will be impacted one way or another.
01:43:57:23 - 01:43:59:04
Janos Pasztor
And therefore everybody.
01:43:59:04 - 01:43:59:11
Janos Pasztor
Should.
01:43:59:11 - 01:44:01:06
Janos Pasztor
Be somehow part of the.
01:44:01:06 - 01:44:03:05
Janos Pasztor
Conversation one way or
01:44:03:05 - 01:44:04:16
Janos Pasztor
another.
01:44:04:18 - 01:44:41:15
Christian Soschner
And I it's definitely a controversial topic. Before, we agreed on the podcast, I read, an interesting post on social media, which I thought was a conspiracy theory, and it was something like, that, when the Industrial Revolution started, human rights started emitting, basically, let's just simplified dirt into the atmosphere, which, just south of roads, which had a cooling effect on the planet, which explains why, for example, in Central Europe, we had, this harsh winters and you see a lot of, old pictures where people were skiing in regions where it's not possible today.
01:44:41:17 - 01:45:05:24
Christian Soschner
And then he brought up the argument, and the hypothesis and said, okay, look, in the 80s and 90s, human race starting carrying, started carrying about the climate against the environment and starting removing pollution from the atmosphere, which now has a warming effect, which if okay, it's complete nonsense. But what you said about solar radiation, would you be careful?
01:45:05:24 - 01:45:06:05
Janos Pasztor
It
01:45:06:05 - 01:45:06:13
Janos Pasztor
is not.
01:45:06:13 - 01:45:15:08
Janos Pasztor
Nonsense. And this is where of tucked behind other events to be careful. So behind many controversy.
01:45:15:10 - 01:45:18:05
Janos Pasztor
Controversial issues and conspiracy theories, there.
01:45:18:05 - 01:45:19:05
Janos Pasztor
Is a grain.
01:45:19:05 - 01:45:20:15
Janos Pasztor
Of truth, right.
01:45:20:17 - 01:45:25:03
Janos Pasztor
And that's the. So every human activity that.
01:45:25:05 - 01:45:32:09
Janos Pasztor
Burns fossil fuels results in aerosols that rise up in the atmosphere and.
01:45:32:09 - 01:45:41:10
Janos Pasztor
Have a cooling effect. Really? Yes. And so, in the, in the 60s and the 70s, when.
01:45:41:10 - 01:45:52:18
Janos Pasztor
Europe was faced with, well, not just Europe, many of the industrialized regions of the global north were facing acid rain. Remember that we put scrubbers,
01:45:52:18 - 01:45:56:02
Janos Pasztor
on the power plants, catalytic converters on the cars.
01:45:56:05 - 01:45:57:21
Janos Pasztor
Which actually removed a.
01:45:57:21 - 01:46:07:07
Janos Pasztor
Lot of this, aerosols, directly. So it doesn't end up going so much into the atmosphere. And that's what stopped the acid rain.
01:46:07:09 - 01:46:08:20
Janos Pasztor
But there is still.
01:46:08:20 - 01:46:10:06
Janos Pasztor
Aerosol production.
01:46:10:10 - 01:46:10:22
Janos Pasztor
Even.
01:46:10:22 - 01:46:13:19
Janos Pasztor
In those places, which had done a pretty good job of.
01:46:13:19 - 01:46:16:09
Janos Pasztor
Scrubbing. And it's not yet true.
01:46:16:09 - 01:46:17:23
Janos Pasztor
Everywhere else in the world.
01:46:18:03 - 01:46:20:19
Janos Pasztor
It's happening. And the local air.
01:46:20:19 - 01:46:26:19
Janos Pasztor
Pollution has to be fixed because people are dying. Millions of people are dying, literally.
01:46:26:19 - 01:46:34:07
Janos Pasztor
So it has to be done, and it will be done. It is being done. But this, all this, the totality.
01:46:34:07 - 01:46:35:08
Janos Pasztor
Of this fossil fuel.
01:46:35:08 - 01:46:38:18
Janos Pasztor
Consumption is actually masking.
01:46:38:20 - 01:46:39:20
Janos Pasztor
The situation.
01:46:39:20 - 01:46:45:19
Janos Pasztor
And there is a certain level of cooling through solar radiation.
01:46:45:19 - 01:46:47:01
Janos Pasztor
Modification.
01:46:47:03 - 01:46:52:18
Janos Pasztor
Of this process. The big difference is that it is not intentional.
01:46:52:18 - 01:47:01:01
Janos Pasztor
Deck the definition of the original term geoengineering was not just large scale, interaction with the human and with the climate.
01:47:01:01 - 01:47:03:01
Janos Pasztor
System, but intentional.
01:47:03:03 - 01:47:04:05
Janos Pasztor
Large scale.
01:47:04:07 - 01:47:12:07
Janos Pasztor
And so that's perhaps an important difference. But it is happening. And we saw a very interesting concrete.
01:47:12:07 - 01:47:14:03
Janos Pasztor
Example of this.
01:47:14:05 - 01:47:21:03
Janos Pasztor
The last, two years, where hotter than scientists expected.
01:47:21:05 - 01:47:25:10
Janos Pasztor
And one of the reasons was that.
01:47:25:12 - 01:47:32:07
Janos Pasztor
The global shipping industry has been relying on very dirty ISO for fuels.
01:47:32:09 - 01:47:34:11
Janos Pasztor
Because cheaper and whatever else.
01:47:34:17 - 01:47:39:08
Janos Pasztor
And there was an international agreement to stop doing that and use.
01:47:39:10 - 01:47:41:05
Janos Pasztor
Higher quality fuels.
01:47:41:07 - 01:47:43:03
Janos Pasztor
What it meant was that the global.
01:47:43:03 - 01:47:45:16
Janos Pasztor
Shipping, which is a lot of ships.
01:47:45:18 - 01:47:53:09
Janos Pasztor
Have emitted less aerosols and that means that their world was not being cooled as much.
01:47:53:11 - 01:47:55:09
Janos Pasztor
By these aerosols, and therefore.
01:47:55:09 - 01:47:56:15
Janos Pasztor
It was warmer.
01:47:56:17 - 01:47:57:00
Janos Pasztor
Okay.
01:47:57:01 - 01:47:58:21
Janos Pasztor
Now, should we.
01:47:58:21 - 01:48:01:07
Janos Pasztor
Stop and go back to high sulfur.
01:48:01:07 - 01:48:12:02
Janos Pasztor
Fuels? You know, that's that's a different issue because that is also increasing local air pollution. If you want to do something like that, then you probably want to do a proper.
01:48:12:04 - 01:48:15:10
Janos Pasztor
Stratospheric aerosol injection, scenario.
01:48:15:10 - 01:48:17:13
Janos Pasztor
Which is a, you know, it's effective.
01:48:17:17 - 01:48:22:02
Janos Pasztor
The same physics, the same science, but but it would be different.
01:48:22:02 - 01:48:31:18
Janos Pasztor
So to, to come back to this, human use of fossil fuels worldwide is currently masking.
01:48:31:20 - 01:48:32:11
Janos Pasztor
Warming.
01:48:32:16 - 01:48:37:18
Janos Pasztor
And it's all of that disappeared. Something like a half to one degree.
01:48:37:20 - 01:48:40:08
Janos Pasztor
Is added to the warming that we're not.
01:48:40:08 - 01:48:41:14
Janos Pasztor
Seeing and that we haven't.
01:48:41:14 - 01:48:46:18
Janos Pasztor
Been seeing for some time. That's the reality of our world.
01:48:46:22 - 01:48:54:12
Christian Soschner
So there is some truth in, in this story that I read on the internet, and it's well studied and understood by scientists.
01:48:54:14 - 01:48:56:05
Janos Pasztor
It's it's pretty well studied.
01:48:56:05 - 01:48:56:19
Janos Pasztor
And it's pretty
01:48:56:19 - 01:49:06:10
Janos Pasztor
well understood. Like everything else in, in the atmospheric science, it's it's, it's not perfect and not everything is known in all the details.
01:49:06:10 - 01:49:07:24
Janos Pasztor
But it is pretty well known and it.
01:49:07:24 - 01:49:09:04
Janos Pasztor
Is pretty well accepted.
01:49:09:10 - 01:49:11:10
Janos Pasztor
And if you put it this way, you.
01:49:11:10 - 01:49:20:12
Janos Pasztor
Look at the IPCC reports, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and you find, assessment of this situation in those reports.
01:49:20:20 - 01:49:37:03
Christian Soschner
Okay, okay. That's very interesting. It's very interesting. And now the question with solar radiation modification is, can we do it in a more controlled way and not just, serendipity, or randomly like, with the shipping industry to say, okay, how do we have a cooling effect? But more on a control.
01:49:37:03 - 01:49:39:13
Janos Pasztor
Clever or or for that.
01:49:39:13 - 01:49:40:01
Janos Pasztor
Matter,
01:49:40:01 - 01:50:04:09
Janos Pasztor
like a volcanic eruption? Because that's that's also, a way for sulfur aerosols to get into the stratosphere. And, scientists even measured, there was a 1981 eruption of a volcano in the Philippines. And, scientists measured that after that eruption, the global temperature went down by about half a degree for about a year and a half.
01:50:04:15 - 01:50:10:22
Janos Pasztor
So, you know, that's, that's the same, same process. So.
01:50:10:24 - 01:50:15:00
Janos Pasztor
Well, this is where, there is science.
01:50:15:00 - 01:50:30:23
Janos Pasztor
Science and research has been taking place over the last, few decades on this issue. And, scientists are pretty sure that it would work, that it could be done in a controlled way. By controlled way.
01:50:31:00 - 01:50:32:06
Janos Pasztor
I mean.
01:50:32:08 - 01:50:47:01
Janos Pasztor
To to developed methods to this distribute, these aerosols, in the stratosphere, the the weight would be the ideal. This, diffusion method.
01:50:47:03 - 01:50:52:09
Janos Pasztor
Where the problem starts is that we don't know enough.
01:50:52:15 - 01:50:54:16
Janos Pasztor
About, the the.
01:50:54:17 - 01:50:56:24
Janos Pasztor
Specific way.
01:50:57:01 - 01:50:59:21
Janos Pasztor
The, the global temperature reduction.
01:50:59:23 - 01:51:01:03
Janos Pasztor
Will impact.
01:51:01:03 - 01:51:04:16
Janos Pasztor
The climate in different situations.
01:51:04:18 - 01:51:06:04
Janos Pasztor
What scientists are pretty.
01:51:06:04 - 01:51:07:18
Janos Pasztor
Sure is that you can.
01:51:07:20 - 01:51:09:11
Janos Pasztor
Reduce the global temperature.
01:51:09:11 - 01:51:13:13
Janos Pasztor
By a certain amount or slow slow down the growth of temperature.
01:51:13:13 - 01:51:16:22
Janos Pasztor
Right. But what you cannot do is you cannot.
01:51:16:22 - 01:51:21:23
Janos Pasztor
Bring back the old climate. Let's be absolutely clear about that. So.
01:51:22:00 - 01:51:32:11
Janos Pasztor
And the climate means wind, rain, precipitation, seasons, all of that, which is already changing with, with,
01:51:32:13 - 01:51:34:04
Janos Pasztor
With climate change for the the.
01:51:34:04 - 01:51:36:10
Janos Pasztor
Monsoons are impacted.
01:51:36:10 - 01:51:37:00
Janos Pasztor
The, the.
01:51:37:00 - 01:51:37:15
Janos Pasztor
Rainfall.
01:51:37:15 - 01:51:38:08
Janos Pasztor
Patterns, the.
01:51:38:08 - 01:51:44:06
Janos Pasztor
Hurricanes, it's already changing. And, by applying.
01:51:44:06 - 01:51:46:06
Janos Pasztor
Stratospheric cancel injection, you.
01:51:46:06 - 01:51:48:08
Janos Pasztor
Could reduce the temperature.
01:51:48:13 - 01:51:51:07
Janos Pasztor
But you cannot bring back the old climate.
01:51:51:12 - 01:52:02:05
Janos Pasztor
Not only that, but the average temperature, globally, will not necessarily be the same temperature reduction in every.
01:52:02:05 - 01:52:03:04
Janos Pasztor
Part of the world.
01:52:03:10 - 01:52:15:04
Janos Pasztor
There will be places which will get even warmer than before, and there will be other places that will get colder. So the question then is how does one take care.
01:52:15:04 - 01:52:17:13
Janos Pasztor
Of the places that will end up.
01:52:17:13 - 01:52:23:01
Janos Pasztor
Being worse off? And even if it's a small percentage and we don't really have a number, but.
01:52:23:03 - 01:52:29:11
Janos Pasztor
Let's say it's 5%, who will be worse off, but 5% of 10 billion people is a lot of people.
01:52:29:17 - 01:52:34:22
Janos Pasztor
So you have to you have to find and this is part of the governance challenges.
01:52:34:22 - 01:52:35:16
Janos Pasztor
And that and.
01:52:35:16 - 01:52:36:13
Janos Pasztor
And I would.
01:52:36:13 - 01:52:37:04
Janos Pasztor
Like to say.
01:52:37:04 - 01:52:39:13
Janos Pasztor
That yes, we don't.
01:52:39:13 - 01:52:43:02
Janos Pasztor
Have enough science yet to reject or accept.
01:52:43:04 - 01:52:44:20
Janos Pasztor
But for me the science.
01:52:44:20 - 01:52:47:15
Janos Pasztor
Is the less difficult part.
01:52:47:17 - 01:52:48:04
Janos Pasztor
Given.
01:52:48:06 - 01:52:56:03
Janos Pasztor
A certain amount of research and focused mission oriented research, we can figure out the science. It's not. It's and it's happening. I mean.
01:52:56:03 - 01:52:57:00
Janos Pasztor
It's more and more.
01:52:57:00 - 01:53:08:15
Janos Pasztor
Papers are coming every day I see my inbox, new articles, peer reviewed articles on this impact, that impact. So it's coming. But what is more difficult is these governance questions, first of all.
01:53:08:17 - 01:53:09:04
Janos Pasztor
Who is going.
01:53:09:04 - 01:53:14:07
Janos Pasztor
To decide whether or not we should do so or radiation modification?
01:53:14:12 - 01:53:19:06
Janos Pasztor
And then once, even if we do decide who is going to set the global.
01:53:19:12 - 01:53:21:17
Janos Pasztor
Thermostat, maybe your country
01:53:21:17 - 01:53:25:03
Janos Pasztor
wants, reduction of half a degree. The other country.
01:53:25:03 - 01:53:25:11
Janos Pasztor
Wants
01:53:25:11 - 01:53:29:14
Janos Pasztor
two degrees. How do you agree to that?
01:53:29:14 - 01:53:31:05
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. But eventually. Right.
01:53:31:09 - 01:53:55:06
Christian Soschner
Yeah, but but from what you say, this is not possible. Saying I understood that, in principle, there is, technology out there says some research around technology, which where you have the possibility to cool down the planet, in general. And, people understand how they can do it. And there's a lot of research going on, but you cannot promise a result locally.
01:53:55:08 - 01:54:08:06
Christian Soschner
So what you can't do is cool down the planet and say, here in Vienna, I can guarantee you you will have four seasons, you will have snow in winter and you will have moderate summers. It can be something.
01:54:08:08 - 01:54:08:18
Janos Pasztor
That is
01:54:08:18 - 01:54:12:08
Janos Pasztor
correct. So the the the models, the scientific.
01:54:12:08 - 01:54:15:03
Janos Pasztor
Models are pretty sure that.
01:54:15:05 - 01:54:16:23
Janos Pasztor
How much global average.
01:54:16:23 - 01:54:20:19
Janos Pasztor
Temperature will be reduced or not by using.
01:54:20:19 - 01:54:25:11
Janos Pasztor
This technique. And there are even indications, increasingly better.
01:54:25:11 - 01:54:27:04
Janos Pasztor
Indications.
01:54:27:06 - 01:54:27:17
Janos Pasztor
Because the.
01:54:27:17 - 01:54:37:20
Janos Pasztor
Modeling is improving and, computer systems are improving. And some hope that through AI, the interpretation is going to improve as well.
01:54:37:22 - 01:54:42:12
Janos Pasztor
That there is increasingly more and more information of how these changes.
01:54:42:12 - 01:54:46:02
Janos Pasztor
Will occur in different parts of the world.
01:54:46:04 - 01:54:47:10
Janos Pasztor
Whether we ever.
01:54:47:10 - 01:54:53:22
Janos Pasztor
Get to the point where we can say that in Vienna, you can guarantee to be between 1.5 to 1 point.
01:54:53:22 - 01:54:54:21
Janos Pasztor
Seven,
01:54:54:21 - 01:54:55:12
Janos Pasztor
I don't.
01:54:55:12 - 01:54:57:08
Janos Pasztor
Think it will ever happen. Okay.
01:54:57:08 - 01:55:12:06
Janos Pasztor
And so we need to find ways. But then we don't know that either with, with the current system. I mean, we are emitting greenhouse gases and we cannot tell for sure what the temperature in Vienna will be in,
01:55:12:06 - 01:55:17:09
Janos Pasztor
2035. We have a rough idea how in that part of the world.
01:55:17:11 - 01:55:24:22
Janos Pasztor
The the climate will evolve based on the currently, assumed, concentration of greenhouse gases.
01:55:24:22 - 01:55:30:11
Janos Pasztor
But it's it's a rough idea. And that's the same if.
01:55:30:13 - 01:55:35:16
Janos Pasztor
The, stratospheric aerosol injection is going to be used.
01:55:35:18 - 01:55:38:07
Christian Soschner
So you can spin a lot of scenarios around that. You
01:55:38:07 - 01:55:54:15
Christian Soschner
can have the, the, the, the best case scenario, we fix the climate problem, and, we have a wonderfully cooled planet with an intact, environment for all, human beings. Or you come to this real random research where you say, now you have a perfect, habitat in Greenland.
01:55:54:16 - 01:55:59:08
Christian Soschner
Everybody can could potentially live there, but you can't live anymore in China.
01:55:59:10 - 01:55:59:19
Janos Pasztor
It's like,
01:55:59:19 - 01:56:02:05
Janos Pasztor
look, look, the present.
01:56:02:05 - 01:56:04:13
Janos Pasztor
Studies that have been done.
01:56:04:15 - 01:56:05:16
Janos Pasztor
Are not showing.
01:56:05:16 - 01:56:07:13
Janos Pasztor
This kind of extremes. Okay.
01:56:07:15 - 01:56:10:17
Janos Pasztor
So so I think that from a scientific.
01:56:10:17 - 01:56:16:09
Janos Pasztor
Point of view, the, the and the modeling that is available to us today.
01:56:16:14 - 01:56:18:12
Janos Pasztor
Seems to indicate that.
01:56:18:14 - 01:56:22:14
Janos Pasztor
Broadly speaking, there will be, a fairly.
01:56:22:16 - 01:56:23:02
Janos Pasztor
Good.
01:56:23:05 - 01:56:30:09
Janos Pasztor
General reduction of the global average temperature, recognizing that this will.
01:56:30:09 - 01:56:32:13
Janos Pasztor
Be not completely equal.
01:56:32:19 - 01:56:35:13
Janos Pasztor
Across all regions and all parts of the world.
01:56:35:17 - 01:56:37:01
Janos Pasztor
And some.
01:56:37:03 - 01:56:37:14
Janos Pasztor
Studies.
01:56:37:14 - 01:56:38:02
Janos Pasztor
Indicate.
01:56:38:02 - 01:56:40:14
Janos Pasztor
Specific areas where the temperature will.
01:56:40:18 - 01:56:41:19
Janos Pasztor
Not go down.
01:56:41:23 - 01:56:46:21
Janos Pasztor
And other places where, it will, go down more or less.
01:56:46:21 - 01:56:54:00
Janos Pasztor
So that that information exists and is getting better every day. So I think we will be able to get,
01:56:54:02 - 01:57:07:16
Janos Pasztor
I would say, fairly robust, information again at the broad level of generalization, but not in terms of cities or specific areas of countries. And predict what that,
01:57:07:16 - 01:57:09:11
Janos Pasztor
that, they're.
01:57:09:13 - 01:57:10:20
Janos Pasztor
Not even the temperature.
01:57:10:20 - 01:57:14:17
Janos Pasztor
Let alone the climate will look like, in the.
01:57:14:17 - 01:57:18:07
Janos Pasztor
Future. And that's part of the challenge. And, that's part of the.
01:57:18:07 - 01:57:19:14
Janos Pasztor
Difficulty of decision.
01:57:19:14 - 01:57:21:09
Janos Pasztor
Making that it is uncertain.
01:57:21:15 - 01:57:26:20
Janos Pasztor
It's, but there are many other areas where we have to take decisions with uncertainty
01:57:26:20 - 01:57:33:00
Janos Pasztor
in mind. It's, stratospheric aerosol injection is not, the only one.
01:57:33:02 - 01:57:35:04
Janos Pasztor
But before leaving the governance.
01:57:35:04 - 01:57:42:19
Janos Pasztor
So I mentioned that we need, to figure out how to decide. And then once we decide who did and if it's.
01:57:42:19 - 01:57:44:24
Janos Pasztor
Yes, then how to make it.
01:57:44:24 - 01:57:47:00
Janos Pasztor
Work in terms of setting the global.
01:57:47:00 - 01:57:54:02
Janos Pasztor
Temperature, how do you set up the whole system? To, to make this work and make it work for a long time? Because
01:57:54:02 - 01:57:54:24
Janos Pasztor
if you do.
01:57:55:04 - 01:57:57:03
Janos Pasztor
Stratospheric aerosol injection.
01:57:57:04 - 01:57:58:22
Janos Pasztor
And it's not for six months.
01:57:58:24 - 01:58:00:13
Janos Pasztor
You're going to have to do it for one.
01:58:00:13 - 01:58:04:04
Janos Pasztor
Or two, generate shoots. That's the kind of length
01:58:04:04 - 01:58:05:15
Janos Pasztor
and you have to make sure
01:58:05:15 - 01:58:10:09
Janos Pasztor
that, you know, before you start, how do you start and how you will start.
01:58:10:09 - 01:58:14:23
Janos Pasztor
Not just when but how. And you know for example.
01:58:15:01 - 01:58:18:17
Janos Pasztor
Carbon large scale carbon removal could be part of.
01:58:18:17 - 01:58:21:16
Janos Pasztor
The exit strategy from solar radiation.
01:58:21:16 - 01:58:30:22
Janos Pasztor
Modification, but it has to be clear from the beginning. Otherwise you just start solar radiation modification. You can be, in this for, long.
01:58:31:03 - 01:58:32:21
Janos Pasztor
Time to come.
01:58:33:04 - 01:58:57:16
Christian Soschner
So the I think the basic idea everybody agrees on that. We need to keep, our planet habitable for the human race. And this is not is an is a no brainer. Governance is one problem. So one day it will be solved and people will have discussed it. The question for me then is, do we really have the systems today to put it into practice?
01:58:57:16 - 01:59:21:22
Christian Soschner
I mean, when I think about the solutions that we can use, it's a governmental solutions. But when you think about Europe, when we involve a lot of governments, processes become bureaucratic, they become long, they become slow. And at the end of the day, when you think about, I think this, cloud service from Europe, Gaia, it was shut down because it just, didn't really move forward, which was a joint effort of many governments here in Europe.
01:59:22:02 - 01:59:39:04
Christian Soschner
It didn't work at the end of the day, when I think about private solutions like space X, for example, or, Starbucks, when you put it into a company, the likelihood that something comes out of it, is maybe a little bit higher. It can be faster, people can work hard. You just have to pour money into that.
01:59:39:04 - 02:00:02:01
Christian Soschner
You can set up a lot of startups when we go the US way. And, you just let them compete against each other, and the best solution wins and the fastest. But then you just have one company set up for generations that has the power in hand, to modify the, the climate, how how do we what are the thought processes behind putting it into practice?
02:00:02:03 - 02:00:03:14
Janos Pasztor
Well, a
02:00:03:14 - 02:00:03:20
Janos Pasztor
part.
02:00:03:20 - 02:00:04:21
Janos Pasztor
Of the problem is that.
02:00:04:21 - 02:00:06:22
Janos Pasztor
Societies haven't started.
02:00:06:24 - 02:00:08:15
Janos Pasztor
The thought process.
02:00:08:17 - 02:00:09:19
Janos Pasztor
Of wanting to put.
02:00:09:19 - 02:00:10:23
Janos Pasztor
This into practice.
02:00:10:23 - 02:00:15:15
Janos Pasztor
And, that's, that's the so, you know, the to develop a technology,
02:00:15:15 - 02:00:17:19
Janos Pasztor
it's easy. I mean, we, you.
02:00:17:19 - 02:00:18:21
Janos Pasztor
Know, I mean, I.
02:00:18:22 - 02:00:20:09
Janos Pasztor
Don't want to make it too.
02:00:20:09 - 02:00:21:19
Janos Pasztor
Easy. It's not that easy.
02:00:21:19 - 02:00:23:21
Janos Pasztor
Okay. But but it's not an.
02:00:23:21 - 02:00:25:17
Janos Pasztor
Insurmountable problem.
02:00:25:19 - 02:00:27:02
Janos Pasztor
To modify.
02:00:27:02 - 02:00:31:03
Janos Pasztor
An aircraft and build many of such aircraft to.
02:00:31:03 - 02:00:32:20
Janos Pasztor
Spray different.
02:00:32:20 - 02:00:46:07
Janos Pasztor
Kinds of aerosols into the stratosphere on an ongoing basis, and set up a monitoring system to make sure that you don't do too much, you don't do too little, and you keep the temperate, the average global temperature, in check.
02:00:46:09 - 02:00:47:04
Janos Pasztor
It's not that.
02:00:47:04 - 02:00:49:08
Janos Pasztor
Complicated. What is complicated is.
02:00:49:08 - 02:00:53:01
Janos Pasztor
To, first of all, accept or not
02:00:53:01 - 02:00:58:09
Janos Pasztor
the fact that you want to kill the planet. And that requires.
02:00:58:09 - 02:00:59:05
Janos Pasztor
A societal.
02:00:59:05 - 02:00:59:15
Janos Pasztor
Discussion.
02:00:59:15 - 02:01:05:08
Janos Pasztor
Now, you can have a private company do something that maybe, kickstarts.
02:01:05:08 - 02:01:08:18
Janos Pasztor
Such discussion because something is happening out there.
02:01:08:20 - 02:01:16:07
Janos Pasztor
But a private company cannot solve this problem. It can only be solved by societies, through some kind of.
02:01:16:07 - 02:01:17:11
Janos Pasztor
Societal action.
02:01:17:11 - 02:01:22:14
Janos Pasztor
And indeed, eventually some kind of government action, and in different ways in.
02:01:22:14 - 02:01:23:19
Janos Pasztor
Different societies.
02:01:23:19 - 02:01:25:06
Janos Pasztor
So the the first challenge.
02:01:25:06 - 02:01:27:07
Janos Pasztor
That we face in terms of governance, and.
02:01:27:10 - 02:01:29:05
Janos Pasztor
Let's just remember, governance is not.
02:01:29:05 - 02:01:43:04
Janos Pasztor
Just governments regulating governance is a broader concept of different parts of society working towards some kind of objective, or against but it's still part of governance. Right. And it can be.
02:01:43:04 - 02:01:48:10
Janos Pasztor
NGOs, private sector, academia, local governments, city governments, national.
02:01:48:10 - 02:01:50:11
Janos Pasztor
Governments and so on. So.
02:01:50:13 - 02:01:53:07
Janos Pasztor
So the first step is to have some kind of.
02:01:53:07 - 02:01:56:12
Janos Pasztor
Societal process which requires conversation.
02:01:56:14 - 02:02:18:23
Janos Pasztor
To, to, to see whether we want to go there, you know, and then to, to figure out what kind of decision making process we need to get there. One thing we know is we don't know enough science yet which will be needed for that decision making process. So we need more research. But even for that, we need research.
02:02:18:23 - 02:02:19:23
Janos Pasztor
Governance.
02:02:20:00 - 02:02:22:24
Janos Pasztor
Because we don't know. We don't have enough.
02:02:23:02 - 02:02:23:19
Janos Pasztor
Governance.
02:02:23:19 - 02:02:30:12
Janos Pasztor
To, to, to to either encourage research or to keep research within certain.
02:02:30:12 - 02:02:33:17
Janos Pasztor
Guardrails to make sure that whatever is done is done in a safe.
02:02:33:17 - 02:02:36:20
Janos Pasztor
Manner. And broadly speaking,
02:02:36:22 - 02:02:38:17
Janos Pasztor
Follow societal procedures.
02:02:38:17 - 02:02:40:18
Janos Pasztor
So even before we can think.
02:02:40:18 - 02:02:42:10
Janos Pasztor
Of governance to decide.
02:02:42:10 - 02:02:46:09
Janos Pasztor
Or not, we have to have some kind of governance to allow more.
02:02:46:09 - 02:02:51:22
Janos Pasztor
Research to take place, within, guardrails and, and boundaries.
02:02:51:22 - 02:03:01:24
Janos Pasztor
So all these things need to happen. And and once they happen, then you can have private sector come in and come up with fantastic.
02:03:01:24 - 02:03:04:05
Janos Pasztor
Solutions for specific areas.
02:03:04:05 - 02:03:10:03
Janos Pasztor
I mean, we have for carbon removal. That's basically what we have already, governments.
02:03:10:03 - 02:03:13:06
Janos Pasztor
Have been discussing. There has been societal discussions.
02:03:13:06 - 02:03:16:01
Janos Pasztor
And while not everybody agrees, but broadly.
02:03:16:01 - 02:03:19:22
Janos Pasztor
Speaking, societies have agreed that carbon removal is part of.
02:03:19:24 - 02:03:25:07
Janos Pasztor
Their climate response. And so, what we have now is we have hundreds.
02:03:25:07 - 02:03:27:22
Janos Pasztor
And of, of different, private sector.
02:03:27:22 - 02:03:29:03
Janos Pasztor
Companies,
02:03:29:05 - 02:03:33:13
Janos Pasztor
Working on new initiatives, new ideas, new technologies. Some are better than.
02:03:33:13 - 02:03:34:22
Janos Pasztor
Others, you know, but let a.
02:03:34:22 - 02:03:36:06
Janos Pasztor
Thousand flowers bloom.
02:03:36:06 - 02:03:45:15
Janos Pasztor
And eventually out of that will come. Not one, but a number of solutions of did the best for removing, carbon fantastic.
02:03:45:17 - 02:03:51:14
Janos Pasztor
Or solar radiation modification. We don't have that kind of societal situation yet.
02:03:51:14 - 02:03:54:15
Janos Pasztor
We have some work companies, some.
02:03:54:15 - 02:03:55:04
Janos Pasztor
Both.
02:03:55:06 - 02:03:56:01
Janos Pasztor
For profit and.
02:03:56:01 - 02:03:57:02
Janos Pasztor
Non-Profits who.
02:03:57:02 - 02:03:57:15
Janos Pasztor
Are beginning.
02:03:57:15 - 02:03:59:05
Janos Pasztor
To develop these techniques, these.
02:03:59:05 - 02:04:08:15
Janos Pasztor
Technologies, in, in a vacuum, in a social, social license.
02:04:08:17 - 02:04:09:21
Janos Pasztor
Vacuum.
02:04:09:21 - 02:04:30:10
Christian Soschner
Let let me. I think, when you think back to the 1870s, I think this is to what it described, perfectly fine. And, was perfectly fine up until mid 90s. Basically, government sets the regulations and then the private sector is doing something, and nothing happens before that intersection. And I think about, the space race in the 60s and 70s between Russia and the United States.
02:04:30:15 - 02:04:52:01
Christian Soschner
It was basically driven by the governments and, of course, the contracted private companies. But no private company was in a position to shoot something into space without the support of governments. Governments put tax money behind it to make it happen. And I think this was true for Russia and the United States. China didn't play a role. Europe didn't play much role back in the 60s, 70s.
02:04:52:03 - 02:05:22:17
Christian Soschner
Then in the 2000s came people like Elon Musk. Jeff Bezos, I think also a virgin, Richard Branson, who said we can do it better, which better? And everyone thought they are stupid. I mean, one person thinks they can outwork the government. It's impossible. Now, in 2025, SpaceX proved that they can produce cheaper and better rockets then the governmental processes.
02:05:22:19 - 02:05:42:19
Christian Soschner
Jeff Bezos did pretty much the same with, Blue Origin. I think it's his company. And, Richard Branson, they didn't study much about it, but I think also Virgin Galactic is doing a great job in that space. And they cracked basically this, this economic conundrum. You can't make something cheaper and better at the same time. SpaceX did it.
02:05:42:21 - 02:06:10:16
Christian Soschner
It was I think it was, a huge moment in history when they caught a rocket and can reuse it immediately right after, reusable rockets, when they think about the technology that you presented. Now with, stratospheric aerosol injection, I think entrepreneurs can do it without government support. So when we can shoot rockets.
02:06:10:18 - 02:06:11:08
Janos Pasztor
Yes,
02:06:11:08 - 02:06:32:08
Janos Pasztor
what I wanted to say is that, yes, they can develop the technology, of course, but, what they cannot do is if even the space-x, you know, or for that matter, the iPhone. These were fantastic, but they were based on.
02:06:32:14 - 02:06:33:11
Janos Pasztor
Developments.
02:06:33:11 - 02:06:43:18
Janos Pasztor
Of basic science and basic, understanding of these things that were financed by governments. And so, the role of government is.
02:06:43:18 - 02:06:44:23
Janos Pasztor
Always there, and it's.
02:06:44:23 - 02:06:51:11
Janos Pasztor
Always very important not necessarily to do things, but to create the conditions where these.
02:06:51:11 - 02:06:51:22
Janos Pasztor
Things can.
02:06:51:22 - 02:06:57:23
Janos Pasztor
Be done. It doesn't mean that governments cannot do things well. I mean, the, the TGV.
02:06:57:23 - 02:06:58:07
Janos Pasztor
In.
02:06:58:08 - 02:07:01:12
Janos Pasztor
France, you know, it happened.
02:07:01:12 - 02:07:01:23
Janos Pasztor
Because.
02:07:01:23 - 02:07:05:00
Janos Pasztor
The governments wanted to make that happen. And
02:07:05:02 - 02:07:07:13
Janos Pasztor
The Shinkansen in Japan.
02:07:07:15 - 02:07:16:08
Janos Pasztor
Is also, government involvement in the same in China. So these things are important. But it's true that focusing on specific issues, the.
02:07:16:08 - 02:07:20:10
Janos Pasztor
Private sector can do well now in terms of solar radiation modification.
02:07:20:16 - 02:07:33:04
Janos Pasztor
As I tried to say earlier, the technology is not the issue. It's actually very cheap to cheap. In fact, it's part of the problem that it would be too cheap to do. There are different.
02:07:33:04 - 02:07:33:21
Janos Pasztor
Analysis.
02:07:33:21 - 02:07:37:01
Janos Pasztor
But, it seems that, you can do.
02:07:37:02 - 02:07:38:04
Janos Pasztor
A global.
02:07:38:04 - 02:07:39:03
Janos Pasztor
Stratospheric.
02:07:39:03 - 02:07:41:14
Janos Pasztor
Aerosol injection program.
02:07:41:16 - 02:07:42:13
Janos Pasztor
Of the order.
02:07:42:13 - 02:07:45:17
Janos Pasztor
Of removing, you know, reducing the global temperature by a.
02:07:45:17 - 02:07:49:12
Janos Pasztor
Degree or something of the order of the direct.
02:07:49:12 - 02:07:52:11
Janos Pasztor
Cost of about $20 billion annually, you.
02:07:52:11 - 02:08:01:11
Janos Pasztor
Know, 20 billions annually. It's very cheap. And in terms of global things, you know, it's peanuts. And so, in fact, many say that one.
02:08:01:11 - 02:08:03:18
Janos Pasztor
Of the problems of, stratosphere gave us an.
02:08:03:18 - 02:08:06:24
Janos Pasztor
Injection is that it is so cheap that.
02:08:06:24 - 02:08:07:23
Janos Pasztor
Governments might.
02:08:07:23 - 02:08:08:09
Janos Pasztor
Be too.
02:08:08:09 - 02:08:09:24
Janos Pasztor
Tempted to do it.
02:08:09:24 - 02:08:12:16
Janos Pasztor
Without thinking through all the risks.
02:08:12:16 - 02:08:15:16
Janos Pasztor
Benefits, and governance challenges.
02:08:15:16 - 02:08:25:22
Janos Pasztor
So, so the cost is not an issue. Technology is not an issue in in fact, I frankly, in the long term, I don't see much.
02:08:25:24 - 02:08:29:03
Janos Pasztor
Private sector interest in this technology as.
02:08:29:03 - 02:08:32:09
Janos Pasztor
Opposed to carbon removal where there is which is a.
02:08:32:09 - 02:08:33:18
Janos Pasztor
Trillion dollar business.
02:08:33:21 - 02:08:35:22
Janos Pasztor
Here. It's,
02:08:35:24 - 02:08:37:16
Janos Pasztor
The total amount is smaller.
02:08:37:16 - 02:08:39:00
Janos Pasztor
There will be a company or.
02:08:39:00 - 02:08:41:13
Janos Pasztor
1 or 2 companies who will have to develop.
02:08:41:17 - 02:08:42:12
Janos Pasztor
Who would have to.
02:08:42:12 - 02:08:44:13
Janos Pasztor
Develop the appropriate aircraft.
02:08:44:15 - 02:08:45:11
Janos Pasztor
But that will be a.
02:08:45:11 - 02:08:52:02
Janos Pasztor
Few billion dollars. And then a Boeing or Airbus or whoever does it, you know.
02:08:52:02 - 02:08:52:20
Janos Pasztor
Will.
02:08:52:22 - 02:08:59:03
Janos Pasztor
Be interested in that, surely, and there will be some monitoring issues and some other things.
02:08:59:03 - 02:09:10:20
Janos Pasztor
But then, you know, it's, it's not, there's not much business to be made. So, so, I in solar radiation modification, this is really the.
02:09:10:20 - 02:09:18:09
Janos Pasztor
Perfect, government job. You know, where there is a global common good, the one global atmosphere that is.
02:09:18:09 - 02:09:21:06
Janos Pasztor
Overheating because of the totality of.
02:09:21:06 - 02:09:22:23
Janos Pasztor
The action by 8 billion.
02:09:22:23 - 02:09:23:19
Janos Pasztor
People.
02:09:23:21 - 02:09:25:11
Janos Pasztor
Okay, some more responsible.
02:09:25:13 - 02:09:33:03
Janos Pasztor
Than others, but still is the totality. And something has to be done. And, and this is the perfect.
02:09:33:03 - 02:09:36:21
Janos Pasztor
Situation where governments need to get together and say they will do it.
02:09:36:21 - 02:09:40:18
Janos Pasztor
Now, the challenge that we face is that,
02:09:40:20 - 02:09:48:09
Janos Pasztor
World governments come together in a civilized way. And as you said, when they come together in this kind.
02:09:48:12 - 02:10:02:15
Janos Pasztor
For it takes time. It's slow, it's difficult. It's very difficult to do these things at the level of the, the US of Europe. And yet in the world we have 193 member states.
02:10:02:15 - 02:10:03:08
Janos Pasztor
So the United.
02:10:03:08 - 02:10:08:06
Janos Pasztor
Nations, it would take a long time. And it's very challenging.
02:10:08:06 - 02:10:13:21
Janos Pasztor
So some countries might be tempted to do things unilaterally. And,
02:10:13:23 - 02:10:21:00
Janos Pasztor
This is where the challenge comes that how many countries could actually do this unilaterally. And the reality.
02:10:21:00 - 02:10:23:10
Janos Pasztor
Is that there are not too many.
02:10:23:12 - 02:10:25:23
Janos Pasztor
There are they tend to be the.
02:10:25:23 - 02:10:30:11
Janos Pasztor
Sort of the, the five permanent members of the, Security.
02:10:30:11 - 02:10:33:09
Janos Pasztor
Council who would have the.
02:10:33:09 - 02:10:48:17
Janos Pasztor
Capacity to do this, globally, maybe a few others who are not, you know, you, the US, China, Russia. Yes. And then there are countries like India, Brazil that might, come to.
02:10:48:19 - 02:10:49:23
Janos Pasztor
Who might be able.
02:10:49:23 - 02:10:51:14
Janos Pasztor
To develop, the technique.
02:10:51:14 - 02:10:54:06
Janos Pasztor
But fundamentally, only.
02:10:54:06 - 02:11:00:02
Janos Pasztor
A handful of countries have, the capacity to actually go ahead and do this.
02:11:00:04 - 02:11:01:24
Janos Pasztor
And in reality, actually, I.
02:11:01:24 - 02:11:02:13
Janos Pasztor
Would say.
02:11:02:13 - 02:11:03:12
Janos Pasztor
Currently only.
02:11:03:12 - 02:11:08:15
Janos Pasztor
One country has the capacity, and that's the United States, because.
02:11:08:17 - 02:11:09:21
Janos Pasztor
One thing is to, to.
02:11:09:21 - 02:11:31:00
Janos Pasztor
Have the airplanes which, which one can develop and so on, but, the, the, the only country that has such broad access to airfield is across the world, because ideally, you want to to spread this material, around the, the globe so that then the winds spread it out equally.
02:11:31:02 - 02:11:34:02
Janos Pasztor
That you need to have access to airfields in many different.
02:11:34:02 - 02:11:39:17
Janos Pasztor
Parts of the world, and currently only the United States, who has that sort of capacity.
02:11:39:17 - 02:11:43:19
Janos Pasztor
So, so unilateral action by one.
02:11:43:24 - 02:11:46:11
Janos Pasztor
Country or even 1 or 2 countries.
02:11:46:11 - 02:11:47:05
Janos Pasztor
Could be quite.
02:11:47:05 - 02:11:52:09
Janos Pasztor
Challenging. And,
02:11:52:11 - 02:12:04:17
Janos Pasztor
Then even if it happens, it could happen in many different ways. Imagine unilateral action by a country saying, we're going to do it and they announce it, and they just go ahead and.
02:12:04:17 - 02:12:06:03
Janos Pasztor
It will take some time to.
02:12:06:09 - 02:12:09:14
Janos Pasztor
Put it in place and do it. And they don't care what.
02:12:09:16 - 02:12:16:06
Janos Pasztor
Anybody else thinks. Now, of course, this can only be done by one of the larger countries in the world.
02:12:16:08 - 02:12:17:09
Janos Pasztor
But you could also.
02:12:17:09 - 02:12:18:18
Janos Pasztor
Envisage a situation.
02:12:18:18 - 02:12:19:23
Janos Pasztor
Where, a.
02:12:19:23 - 02:12:25:16
Janos Pasztor
Country unilaterally starts but then says, or rather announces that they will do it and they're.
02:12:25:16 - 02:12:28:17
Janos Pasztor
Putting in place, but at the same time, they open.
02:12:28:17 - 02:12:31:14
Janos Pasztor
A discussion in the UN General Assembly, the UN Security.
02:12:31:14 - 02:12:33:14
Janos Pasztor
Council, and try to bring in.
02:12:33:14 - 02:12:37:08
Janos Pasztor
The rest of the world along a different approach. Okay.
02:12:37:08 - 02:12:43:05
Janos Pasztor
So there are, there is the ideal, starting with 193.
02:12:43:05 - 02:12:47:12
Janos Pasztor
Member states of the United Nations. And then there are others.
02:12:47:12 - 02:12:51:02
Janos Pasztor
But at the end of the day, not too many.
02:12:51:02 - 02:13:01:03
Janos Pasztor
Actors can do this. And, whatever you do, it will have a global impact. Now, there's one thing I should mention here, because there's been a lot of talk about.
02:13:02:09 - 02:13:12:24
Janos Pasztor
The, the what they call the green finger scenario that, a billionaire, can just do this since it's only cost $20 billion a year.
02:13:13:05 - 02:13:15:20
Janos Pasztor
A billionaire could actually get this going and do.
02:13:15:20 - 02:13:17:02
Janos Pasztor
This for a few years.
02:13:17:02 - 02:13:18:13
Janos Pasztor
If he or she.
02:13:18:13 - 02:13:39:16
Janos Pasztor
Is really convinced about doing it, it won't be that simple, because, governments can decide to literally shoot it down, right? I mean, you know, if if governments, especially bigger countries are not convinced that this should be done, they can find a way to stop this. Okay.
02:13:39:16 - 02:13:42:08
Janos Pasztor
So I think it would be hard, for.
02:13:42:08 - 02:13:46:08
Janos Pasztor
Simply a billionaire, a non-state actor, to, to.
02:13:46:08 - 02:13:49:06
Janos Pasztor
Do this, but, where I see.
02:13:49:06 - 02:13:53:05
Janos Pasztor
Some dangers, like in today's world is where you could have.
02:13:54:04 - 02:13:57:10
Janos Pasztor
A billionaire or some billionaires.
02:13:57:12 - 02:14:00:22
Janos Pasztor
In overt or overt.
02:14:00:24 - 02:14:07:15
Janos Pasztor
Corporations with one or more governments do the job. That's a different scenario.
02:14:07:17 - 02:14:13:03
Janos Pasztor
And, you know, when you look at the world of today.
02:14:13:05 - 02:14:21:00
Janos Pasztor
For example, in the collusion between some private sector actors and the government in the United States.
02:14:22:05 - 02:14:28:12
Janos Pasztor
You cannot exclude such scenarios. And I think one needs to look at that also more seriously.
02:14:28:19 - 02:14:47:00
Christian Soschner
Now, definitely complex topic having, I had a lot of thoughts in my mind while you were speaking. First thing was I thought it's $1 trillion project. So it cost for one year, not for for 500 years. I thought they cost a really expensive. And I was surprised when I said, no, it's 20 billion per year.
02:14:47:02 - 02:15:15:02
Christian Soschner
So because, then you have China, you have probably India. In future you have the United States that can financially do that. Even when I think, the Musk, his contested bonus for 60 billion. So he could finance it for three years, Bill gates with Microsoft or with his fund has potential. And then it was just thinking about, the recent elections of the, presidential elections in the United States.
02:15:15:02 - 02:15:33:21
Christian Soschner
And they just thought, I mean, even China does it, why not the US and when China calls the planet for 1.5 degrees, and the US, one says we can do it much better, and we call it for, two degrees. There's a lot of I think there must be a lot of discussions around the globe. It's it's really a tough, tough cookie at the end of the day.
02:15:33:21 - 02:15:38:07
Christian Soschner
How to do it. When you do it, who does it?
02:15:38:09 - 02:15:38:13
Janos Pasztor
You
02:15:38:13 - 02:15:39:24
Janos Pasztor
know, there ought to.
02:15:39:24 - 02:15:43:03
Janos Pasztor
Be a lot of discussions, but not enough. There are.
02:15:43:05 - 02:15:47:09
Janos Pasztor
These discussions at the moment are taking place in very limited.
02:15:47:09 - 02:15:48:12
Janos Pasztor
Circles.
02:15:48:14 - 02:15:51:00
Janos Pasztor
Some would say that it's just,
02:15:51:02 - 02:16:03:10
Janos Pasztor
A group of scientists who want us to make happen to, to make this happen and that they are talking between themselves. There are some non-state actors that are getting organized to discuss it.
02:16:03:10 - 02:16:07:18
Janos Pasztor
So there is evolution. I mean, in my in this Carnegie.
02:16:07:18 - 02:16:14:20
Janos Pasztor
Climate Governance Initiative, when we started the work in 2016 to look at these governance questions.
02:16:14:22 - 02:16:17:07
Janos Pasztor
There was, there was practically.
02:16:17:07 - 02:16:31:08
Janos Pasztor
Nothing happening at the societal level other than a few scientists now, six, seven, eight years later, there is a lot going on. There are intergovernmental processes that are looking at this. They are.
02:16:32:06 - 02:16:39:03
Janos Pasztor
Major, civil society organizations looking at it. There is the Intergovernmental Panel looking at it.
02:16:39:03 - 02:16:40:17
Janos Pasztor
So there is.
02:16:40:19 - 02:16:45:23
Janos Pasztor
There are developments. And and as we said earlier, there are actors.
02:16:46:00 - 02:16:46:20
Janos Pasztor
Non-state.
02:16:46:20 - 02:16:49:14
Janos Pasztor
Actors and state actors.
02:16:49:16 - 02:16:51:06
Janos Pasztor
That are actually doing.
02:16:51:06 - 02:16:54:19
Janos Pasztor
Things that the United States, for example.
02:16:54:19 - 02:16:56:03
Janos Pasztor
Is has.
02:16:56:03 - 02:17:02:05
Janos Pasztor
Started to look at the baseline concentration of aerosol in the, atmosphere.
02:17:02:07 - 02:17:07:21
Janos Pasztor
Which, you need to do in order to detect if somebody else.
02:17:07:23 - 02:17:31:09
Janos Pasztor
Were to do any kind of un regulated, dispersal of aerosols. Others are saying that they also need to do that in order to have a baseline. If the United States wanted to decide to go, and, and, eventually one day deploy stratospheric aerosol injection.
02:17:31:09 - 02:17:37:03
Janos Pasztor
So that's a state actor. You have, for profit startups.
02:17:37:05 - 02:17:42:13
Janos Pasztor
Engaged in this activity. We have nonprofit startups engaged in this activity.
02:17:42:13 - 02:17:46:15
Janos Pasztor
They have universities doing very substantial research.
02:17:46:17 - 02:17:47:06
Janos Pasztor
On this.
02:17:47:10 - 02:17:47:19
Janos Pasztor
In.
02:17:47:19 - 02:17:49:08
Janos Pasztor
North America and elsewhere in.
02:17:49:08 - 02:17:53:10
Janos Pasztor
The world. So things are happening and, and, and, the.
02:17:53:10 - 02:17:55:23
Janos Pasztor
Media has been quite active on this issue.
02:17:56:02 - 02:17:57:00
Janos Pasztor
What we haven't.
02:17:57:00 - 02:17:57:09
Janos Pasztor
Seen.
02:17:57:09 - 02:17:58:21
Janos Pasztor
Yet is enough.
02:17:58:21 - 02:18:00:03
Janos Pasztor
Action by governments.
02:18:00:03 - 02:18:01:12
Janos Pasztor
But even there.
02:18:01:14 - 02:18:18:14
Janos Pasztor
There are developments. I mean, they had, for example, the European Commission convened, the expert group, and they produced a very interesting report just last month, about this issue. I think it was last month, about this issue.
02:18:18:19 - 02:18:21:03
Janos Pasztor
It's not yet, an EU report.
02:18:21:03 - 02:18:22:02
Janos Pasztor
It's an expert.
02:18:22:02 - 02:18:22:10
Janos Pasztor
Group.
02:18:22:15 - 02:18:32:17
Janos Pasztor
Similar to what the United Nations Environment Program did a year ago. A year and a half ago. They also convened an expert group, and then they published a report of the expert group.
02:18:32:19 - 02:18:35:11
Janos Pasztor
But these are political.
02:18:35:13 - 02:18:36:15
Janos Pasztor
Processes that.
02:18:36:15 - 02:18:40:02
Janos Pasztor
Are advancing the.
02:18:40:04 - 02:18:43:16
Janos Pasztor
Outcomes of experts on this topic. Okay.
02:18:43:16 - 02:18:46:05
Janos Pasztor
So one day it will become.
02:18:46:05 - 02:18:49:10
Janos Pasztor
Part of the political process. Not yet.
02:18:49:12 - 02:19:13:19
Christian Soschner
And I think we need also new systems of the systems that we have currently, designed over centuries for local problems, up to the 80s. I think every problem was more or less a local problem, except to what was now with this, solar radiation modification. I mean, it's, you need to unite all the governments behind this idea and the problems that we face today.
02:19:13:19 - 02:19:37:21
Christian Soschner
I mean, this is just one. But I think also the other problems will have more global effects, like the internet. Now we have a lot of discussions around spreading information and media via the internet, which was not a problem that we had, in the past. And I think more and more of these problems will appear that needs to align the governments globally to we have the systems in place, to, to make such decisions, decisions today.
02:19:37:23 - 02:19:40:24
Janos Pasztor
We have the system. We have I mean, if you just.
02:19:41:03 - 02:19:45:08
Christian Soschner
Effective systems so that you can really make fast decisions.
02:19:45:10 - 02:19:48:08
Janos Pasztor
Fast decisions intergovernmental that's an oxymoron.
02:19:48:11 - 02:19:53:00
Janos Pasztor
You know, it's it's, no, it always takes a longer time, but it's possible.
02:19:53:03 - 02:19:53:20
Janos Pasztor
And.
02:19:53:21 - 02:20:00:02
Janos Pasztor
You know, the lately, there has been, you know, it's more challenging these days to.
02:20:00:02 - 02:20:03:12
Janos Pasztor
Do things at a multilateral level than it was maybe a few years.
02:20:03:12 - 02:20:38:24
Janos Pasztor
Ago. But it's not impossible. It's not impossible. And I think we are coming to a situation where the the situation demands that something of this nature happens because, you know, it is getting warmer and the impacts are going to get increasingly catastrophic, and there is very little one can do about it. Even if, as we discussed earlier, I mean, we must reduce our emissions, but it will be very difficult to see the, you know, if we if we, reduce emissions much faster, the temperature will still rise.
02:20:39:01 - 02:21:08:04
Janos Pasztor
It's just that that the distance, the the time period for the so-called temperature overshoot will be shorter, but it will still go up. That's the reality. And, and so, governments may just come to their senses at some point and realize that something must be done. And, and something needs to be done together because the, the consequences of not doing it together could be very substantial.
02:21:08:04 - 02:21:08:18
Janos Pasztor
Imagine a.
02:21:08:18 - 02:21:09:09
Janos Pasztor
Scenario.
02:21:09:09 - 02:21:12:05
Janos Pasztor
Where one country decides to.
02:21:12:05 - 02:21:15:13
Janos Pasztor
Unilaterally start stratospheric aerosol injection.
02:21:15:17 - 02:21:23:22
Janos Pasztor
And another country, let's say equally large, doesn't want that. Okay, so then you could do counter.
02:21:23:24 - 02:21:25:15
Janos Pasztor
Geoengineering as it's called.
02:21:25:15 - 02:21:38:05
Janos Pasztor
You can spray materials into the stratosphere that do the opposite. Is this the kind of world we want to to get into? So, there there could be many reasons why governments may be forced,
02:21:38:07 - 02:21:42:07
Janos Pasztor
To, to do things, that today maybe they are not ready.
02:21:42:07 - 02:21:47:10
Janos Pasztor
But we have, you know, we have international processes where these.
02:21:47:10 - 02:21:48:19
Janos Pasztor
Discussions can take.
02:21:48:19 - 02:21:50:04
Janos Pasztor
Place. We.
02:21:50:04 - 02:21:53:16
Janos Pasztor
Have a U.N. General Assembly, we have the OECD.
02:21:53:18 - 02:21:55:17
Janos Pasztor
We have other regional bodies where these.
02:21:55:17 - 02:21:56:09
Janos Pasztor
Discussions.
02:21:56:09 - 02:22:00:22
Janos Pasztor
Can happen. So, you know, we we have international scientific.
02:22:00:22 - 02:22:02:20
Janos Pasztor
Cooperation through different.
02:22:02:22 - 02:22:19:24
Janos Pasztor
Governmental and non-governmental bodies. So we we do have institutions where one can start working and one can start working toward research governance, and one can start working toward an eventual.
02:22:20:01 - 02:22:23:15
Janos Pasztor
Decision making process, whether or not.
02:22:23:17 - 02:22:31:14
Janos Pasztor
Then whether then new institutions need to be put in place to see how it.
02:22:31:14 - 02:22:34:13
Janos Pasztor
Will be done. If the decision is yes.
02:22:34:15 - 02:22:43:02
Janos Pasztor
Because it could be no. Let's face it. I mean, it's, this is not inevitable that the world will have to use.
02:22:43:04 - 02:22:48:05
Janos Pasztor
Solar radiation modification or more specifically, stratospheric aerosol injection.
02:22:48:07 - 02:23:13:12
Janos Pasztor
It's not a given. And, it could be decided. No. No way. But then the world also has to figure out what to do. What are the implications of the no. Because the the temperatures are still rising. So, you know, you can adapt to a certain level of, of, of, temperature increase, but to adapt to a three degree warming.
02:23:13:14 - 02:23:18:01
Janos Pasztor
Is cuckoo land, to put it very simply, scientific terms.
02:23:18:03 - 02:23:33:19
Janos Pasztor
It just cannot happen. There are limits to adaptation there. First of all, financial limits, technological limits, cultural limits, and so on and so forth. So, that's the that's the so but we have institutions. We just have to make.
02:23:33:19 - 02:23:34:23
Janos Pasztor
Use of them to.
02:23:34:23 - 02:23:35:12
Janos Pasztor
Get
02:23:35:12 - 02:23:36:24
Janos Pasztor
going.
02:23:37:01 - 02:23:55:23
Christian Soschner
And I think what we need is global collaboration. And, I'm a huge advocate for capable collaboration. And to continue that despite some, some news that I read on the, on the internet these days that some people don't want that, I think the it was the time that I grew up, it was post code, World War I, cold, cold, cold War.
02:23:55:23 - 02:24:32:06
Christian Soschner
And in the 90s, it was all about collaborating internationally, identifying the the prosperity that we had in the last few decades and the peace that we had mostly, I mean, we had didn't have a huge world was a result of global collaboration. And, I think we should continue that. The question that I have to you is, you led the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative from 2016 to 2023, and I always wondered what role plays such an initiative in the decision making process globally.
02:24:32:06 - 02:24:36:11
Christian Soschner
When we think about, climate interventions.
02:24:36:13 - 02:24:37:11
Janos Pasztor
So,
02:24:37:11 - 02:24:42:07
Janos Pasztor
this initiative, it was set up in 2016.
02:24:42:09 - 02:24:46:05
Janos Pasztor
Officially in February 2017, but in practice.
02:24:46:05 - 02:24:49:01
Janos Pasztor
And 216 and our mission was.
02:24:49:01 - 02:24:50:16
Janos Pasztor
Quite simple.
02:24:50:18 - 02:24:51:15
Janos Pasztor
Is to bring to the.
02:24:51:15 - 02:24:53:07
Janos Pasztor
Attention of governments.
02:24:53:09 - 02:24:53:14
Janos Pasztor
The.
02:24:53:14 - 02:25:01:10
Janos Pasztor
Governance challenges related to these new emerging techniques, both on carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation modification.
02:25:01:12 - 02:25:03:17
Janos Pasztor
And, you know, after a few.
02:25:03:17 - 02:25:08:07
Janos Pasztor
Years, we decided to focus all our attention on solar radiation modification.
02:25:08:07 - 02:25:10:11
Janos Pasztor
Because by the time the net zero.
02:25:10:11 - 02:25:13:08
Janos Pasztor
Goals of countries became clear.
02:25:13:10 - 02:25:14:19
Janos Pasztor
Then it was also clear that.
02:25:14:19 - 02:25:17:00
Janos Pasztor
Carbon dioxide removal will have to be a part of it.
02:25:17:00 - 02:25:20:15
Janos Pasztor
So it was no longer, for carbon removal.
02:25:20:15 - 02:25:32:17
Janos Pasztor
It's no longer, whether or not the issue was may be which technology or based in all of those questions. Right. But we felt that the focus would need to be more on the solar radiation modification.
02:25:32:17 - 02:25:35:03
Janos Pasztor
So our our focus was simply to bring to the.
02:25:35:03 - 02:25:36:24
Janos Pasztor
Attention of governments.
02:25:37:01 - 02:25:37:07
Janos Pasztor
What.
02:25:37:07 - 02:25:40:24
Janos Pasztor
These challenges are. And,
02:25:41:01 - 02:25:44:04
Janos Pasztor
I think it was, I think we did pretty.
02:25:44:04 - 02:25:47:20
Janos Pasztor
Okay in doing that. And,
02:25:47:22 - 02:26:00:02
Janos Pasztor
We we talked to many governments, directly, over 80 countries. We the, addressed directly, either bilateral.
02:26:00:02 - 02:26:00:21
Janos Pasztor
Meetings in.
02:26:00:21 - 02:26:01:16
Janos Pasztor
Capitals.
02:26:01:21 - 02:26:02:09
Janos Pasztor
And.
02:26:02:09 - 02:26:02:21
Janos Pasztor
Or.
02:26:03:01 - 02:26:08:07
Janos Pasztor
Meeting their permanent representatives to the United Nations in New York at the ambassador.
02:26:08:07 - 02:26:08:19
Janos Pasztor
Level.
02:26:08:19 - 02:26:10:07
Janos Pasztor
So and we also had.
02:26:10:07 - 02:26:11:00
Janos Pasztor
Briefings.
02:26:11:00 - 02:26:27:21
Janos Pasztor
To groups of countries, G77 and China. That's the big group of developing countries in the United Nations, the African negotiators. We briefed, the UN Secretary-General, we briefed, senior officials in the European Commission.
02:26:28:01 - 02:26:28:12
Janos Pasztor
And so.
02:26:28:12 - 02:26:29:05
Janos Pasztor
On and so forth.
02:26:29:05 - 02:26:39:17
Janos Pasztor
So in terms of getting this knowledge through, I think we we did pretty well. Then, you can ask the question, what were some of the key.
02:26:39:17 - 02:26:47:10
Janos Pasztor
Outcomes of this? And, other than general knowledge and, and maybe some, some breakthroughs.
02:26:47:10 - 02:26:50:11
Janos Pasztor
And I think it's fair to say that.
02:26:50:13 - 02:26:51:03
Janos Pasztor
Our most.
02:26:51:03 - 02:26:58:00
Janos Pasztor
Important, concrete outcome was, that that we catalyze this first.
02:26:58:02 - 02:27:03:00
Janos Pasztor
Draft resolution at the UN Environment Assembly back in 2019 because.
02:27:03:00 - 02:27:10:08
Janos Pasztor
That was really significant. And from our perspective, see, to G's perspective, the focus was not on the actual outcome, although the.
02:27:10:08 - 02:27:11:22
Janos Pasztor
Actual outcome would have been nice.
02:27:11:22 - 02:27:17:14
Janos Pasztor
But the focus was on getting the conversation going. And we did that.
02:27:17:15 - 02:27:25:20
Janos Pasztor
We got the conversation going and and there were people who were totally not ready. And there are others who wanted this, others who wanted that.
02:27:25:22 - 02:27:27:21
Janos Pasztor
It showed that it requires.
02:27:27:21 - 02:27:35:09
Janos Pasztor
A lot more diplomatic work and a lot more, research results to have, that kind of discussion.
02:27:35:12 - 02:27:36:12
Janos Pasztor
But we, we were.
02:27:36:12 - 02:27:40:11
Janos Pasztor
Able to, to, to bring this, to, to the.
02:27:40:11 - 02:27:43:12
Janos Pasztor
Countries. And even though the resolution.
02:27:43:12 - 02:27:43:17
Janos Pasztor
Was.
02:27:43:17 - 02:27:46:13
Janos Pasztor
Not successful, it was attempted.
02:27:46:13 - 02:27:51:13
Janos Pasztor
Again a few years later, last year, still not successful for different reasons.
02:27:51:15 - 02:27:58:18
Janos Pasztor
But it's not going away. The issue is there on the agenda. And while the UN Environment.
02:27:58:18 - 02:28:00:00
Janos Pasztor
Assembly is struggling with.
02:28:00:00 - 02:28:05:20
Janos Pasztor
This, other intergovernmental processes have also picked this up. Unesco did a major.
02:28:06:00 - 02:28:11:14
Janos Pasztor
Assessment of the ethical considerations of these emerging techniques.
02:28:11:15 - 02:28:12:18
Janos Pasztor
The UN Human Rights.
02:28:12:18 - 02:28:14:04
Janos Pasztor
Commission has looked at the human.
02:28:14:04 - 02:28:21:04
Janos Pasztor
Rights aspects of of these techniques. The OECD has had the expert meetings on the.
02:28:21:04 - 02:28:23:21
Janos Pasztor
Different components, different aspects.
02:28:23:21 - 02:28:26:00
Janos Pasztor
Of this. So, National Academies of.
02:28:26:00 - 02:28:26:20
Janos Pasztor
Sciences in.
02:28:26:20 - 02:28:37:22
Janos Pasztor
The United States in particular, have had some very substantial studies done on this issue. So things are happening as a result of this. And I think we can see at the minimum.
02:28:37:22 - 02:28:39:06
Janos Pasztor
In C2G that we.
02:28:39:06 - 02:28:46:07
Janos Pasztor
Have certainly contributed to these. And in some cases we actually did, catalyzed.
02:28:46:07 - 02:28:47:21
Janos Pasztor
I mean, in a, in a major way.
02:28:47:23 - 02:28:52:10
Janos Pasztor
So, there is a, a summary of, of, of what we think we've achieved.
02:28:52:10 - 02:29:04:18
Janos Pasztor
On our on CO2 use website that is still there. And, for those who are interested in the details, C2G2 dot net, it's there. And you can read the details, of
02:29:04:18 - 02:29:05:14
Janos Pasztor
this.
02:29:05:16 - 02:29:08:21
Christian Soschner
C 23. net the website b2.
02:29:08:21 - 02:29:09:13
Janos Pasztor
G2.
02:29:09:15 - 02:29:10:16
Janos Pasztor
Dot net.
02:29:10:18 - 02:29:13:15
Christian Soschner
C 232. net.
02:29:13:17 - 02:29:13:23
Janos Pasztor
Yeah.
02:29:13:23 - 02:29:21:05
Janos Pasztor
There is a difference between the address, the URL and the name. And the reason is actually it goes back to.
02:29:21:05 - 02:29:22:23
Janos Pasztor
Something we discussed earlier.
02:29:23:00 - 02:29:29:04
Janos Pasztor
When we started this in 2016, it was called the Carnegie Climate Geoengineering.
02:29:29:04 - 02:29:30:22
Janos Pasztor
Governance Initiative C.
02:29:30:22 - 02:29:33:02
Janos Pasztor
2G2.
02:29:33:04 - 02:29:33:17
Janos Pasztor
That's how we.
02:29:33:17 - 02:29:35:17
Janos Pasztor
Started. But after a
02:29:35:17 - 02:29:36:08
Janos Pasztor
few years.
02:29:36:08 - 02:29:37:07
Janos Pasztor
We realized that.
02:29:37:07 - 02:29:39:04
Janos Pasztor
The word geoengineering just.
02:29:39:04 - 02:29:40:04
Janos Pasztor
Complicated our.
02:29:40:04 - 02:29:41:06
Janos Pasztor
Lives. It was.
02:29:41:06 - 02:29:44:16
Janos Pasztor
Something that, as I said, even the IPCC has stopped.
02:29:44:16 - 02:29:51:09
Janos Pasztor
Using, and we said it was better that we thought clearly CDR carbon removal here or.
02:29:51:09 - 02:29:53:03
Janos Pasztor
Solar radiation modification.
02:29:53:03 - 02:29:59:14
Janos Pasztor
So we actually stopped, using the word geoengineering and we removed it from our name.
02:29:59:16 - 02:30:01:01
Christian Soschner
So not from the website.
02:30:01:05 - 02:30:03:15
Janos Pasztor
No. It was it would have been too complicated for it.
02:30:03:15 - 02:30:09:19
Janos Pasztor
You know, we were not an organization that we wanted. We were we had always envisaged C to G as.
02:30:09:19 - 02:30:11:23
Janos Pasztor
An initiative for a few years.
02:30:12:00 - 02:30:14:00
Janos Pasztor
Okay. So it was it would have been too.
02:30:14:00 - 02:30:17:10
Janos Pasztor
Complicated to change the URL, the website, everything else.
02:30:17:10 - 02:30:18:03
Janos Pasztor
So we.
02:30:18:03 - 02:30:19:05
Janos Pasztor
Decided to leave it.
02:30:19:05 - 02:30:22:18
Janos Pasztor
That. So it is C2G2 dot net.
02:30:22:20 - 02:30:24:24
Janos Pasztor
The, the website address.
02:30:25:03 - 02:30:45:13
Christian Soschner
So basically the purpose from such an initiative is within a limited time to raise awareness for an issue, start a discussion, bring it into the intergovernmental negotiation processes and raise awareness for an issue. This is, the defined goal. And after some years, it is automatically shut down. So this is not planned to last forever.
02:30:45:15 - 02:30:46:06
Janos Pasztor
Well,
02:30:46:06 - 02:30:52:19
Janos Pasztor
you know, once you bring it to the attention of governments, then you have met your mission. Then you can do.
02:30:52:20 - 02:30:54:04
Janos Pasztor
Mission creep and say, well,
02:30:54:04 - 02:30:55:08
Janos Pasztor
now we do something else.
02:30:55:08 - 02:30:57:08
Janos Pasztor
But we decided we did not want to.
02:30:57:08 - 02:30:58:12
Janos Pasztor
Do mission creep.
02:30:58:14 - 02:31:18:10
Janos Pasztor
Our mission was clear. We met our mission objectives, and then we said, okay, now we follow and let others take, not take over, but do the new things that are necessary and the infections that time new organizations have appeared, including some elements of our work, but doing things differently
02:31:18:10 - 02:31:21:16
Janos Pasztor
because now things have changed and different.
02:31:21:18 - 02:31:24:10
Janos Pasztor
Tasks are needed.
02:31:24:12 - 02:31:35:06
Christian Soschner
Okay, okay. So it it needs a lot of initiative. I mean, the the advantages. You have a new team, you have a new mission, you have a new team, and, can of the right team for the next mission.
02:31:35:08 - 02:31:36:00
Janos Pasztor
Yeah.
02:31:36:02 - 02:32:01:05
Christian Soschner
Yeah, this is great. Let's, let's come to the final part of our conversation. Let's tap into the future. And what's next for the planet. You wrote in the preparation material, you have four grand kids. So when you look into the future, how does the future look like in 50 years? What words do you want to see?
02:32:01:07 - 02:32:04:01
Janos Pasztor
Well, if if, if we continue.
02:32:04:01 - 02:32:04:10
Janos Pasztor
On the
02:32:04:10 - 02:32:16:02
Janos Pasztor
present path, then, I think the future for the, the until the end of this century, so to speak, that that period which, by.
02:32:16:02 - 02:32:16:24
Janos Pasztor
The way.
02:32:17:01 - 02:32:29:06
Janos Pasztor
This is the time when my grandchildren will grow up and eventually, die toward the end of the century, or maybe even a little bit beyond. So.
02:32:29:08 - 02:32:33:12
Janos Pasztor
So that's quite important. But then when I look at the.
02:32:33:12 - 02:32:34:24
Janos Pasztor
Future, then.
02:32:34:24 - 02:32:37:09
Janos Pasztor
I must say that.
02:32:37:11 - 02:32:49:04
Janos Pasztor
It does not look good because it's going to get a lot warmer, and there will be increasingly significant and catastrophic impacts of that warming.
02:32:49:06 - 02:32:50:16
Janos Pasztor
There will be an increasing.
02:32:50:16 - 02:32:54:21
Janos Pasztor
Isolation of the rich and the poor, or separation of the rich and the poor, because.
02:32:54:21 - 02:32:55:17
Janos Pasztor
The rich, at.
02:32:55:17 - 02:33:06:13
Janos Pasztor
Least for some time, will be able to adapt to some of these changes because they have the resources, whether they can do that for a long time, that's that's another story. But
02:33:06:13 - 02:33:09:05
Janos Pasztor
anyway, I see this.
02:33:09:05 - 02:33:14:20
Janos Pasztor
And so I see the, the future. I it couldn't be more dystopic than.
02:33:14:22 - 02:33:17:11
Janos Pasztor
Than than that. And
02:33:17:13 - 02:33:20:02
Janos Pasztor
And because it's so bad, I don't believe that.
02:33:20:02 - 02:33:22:00
Janos Pasztor
We will actually get there.
02:33:22:02 - 02:33:23:00
Janos Pasztor
That we will.
02:33:23:00 - 02:33:23:20
Janos Pasztor
Have to act.
02:33:23:20 - 02:33:29:16
Janos Pasztor
Before the same way as remember the acid rain. It was terrible. I remember traveling through.
02:33:29:18 - 02:33:35:05
Janos Pasztor
Eastern, Czechoslovakia. In those days, there was a country called Czechoslovakia, and it was terrible.
02:33:35:05 - 02:33:48:18
Janos Pasztor
The forests were all dying, you know, it was it was really bad. But we changed, right. And and I think it's the same here. I don't think the world will accept to go there. And then the question is.
02:33:48:20 - 02:33:57:12
Janos Pasztor
What, are we going to do to make it less this topic? But, but honestly.
02:33:57:12 - 02:33:59:22
Janos Pasztor
If if we continue to do the emissions.
02:33:59:22 - 02:34:02:20
Janos Pasztor
The way we're doing and if we're not removing enough carbon.
02:34:02:20 - 02:34:05:12
Janos Pasztor
Then really only cooling.
02:34:05:14 - 02:34:07:21
Janos Pasztor
Planetary cooling can.
02:34:07:23 - 02:34:10:18
Janos Pasztor
Create the conditions in which we can.
02:34:10:18 - 02:34:16:10
Janos Pasztor
Actually achieve our sustainable development goals. It's terrible to have to say that, but,
02:34:16:12 - 02:34:18:10
Janos Pasztor
That's really where.
02:34:18:12 - 02:34:21:03
Janos Pasztor
Where I see this, going.
02:34:21:03 - 02:34:24:15
Janos Pasztor
Every, every day of insufficient.
02:34:24:15 - 02:34:31:21
Janos Pasztor
Action or non-action is taking us closer to the dead end street where the only option left is planetary cooling.
02:34:32:00 - 02:34:33:13
Janos Pasztor
And that's terrible.
02:34:33:15 - 02:34:37:21
Janos Pasztor
To have to, say that. So,
02:34:37:23 - 02:34:42:13
Janos Pasztor
Yeah. So that's the that's if we don't do anything.
02:34:42:15 - 02:34:43:15
Janos Pasztor
Now.
02:34:43:17 - 02:34:45:07
Janos Pasztor
If I look at the future.
02:34:45:07 - 02:34:46:05
Janos Pasztor
And you say, well, if we.
02:34:46:05 - 02:34:46:18
Janos Pasztor
Start.
02:34:46:24 - 02:34:50:08
Janos Pasztor
Serious, being serious about.
02:34:50:10 - 02:34:51:20
Janos Pasztor
Doing much more.
02:34:51:20 - 02:34:56:23
Janos Pasztor
Intensive emission reductions, beginning carbon removal and so on.
02:34:57:00 - 02:35:01:23
Janos Pasztor
You know, it's interesting because in some ways, the more immediate.
02:35:01:23 - 02:35:04:14
Janos Pasztor
Future, let's say the next, 20.
02:35:04:14 - 02:35:23:07
Janos Pasztor
Years may not look very different because the temperatures will still increase. That's part of the problem. And it's hard to grasp that even if we massively reduce our emissions much more than what we're doing now, the planet is still going to get warmer. Maybe not as warm as.
02:35:23:07 - 02:35:26:05
Janos Pasztor
Otherwise it would have become.
02:35:26:07 - 02:35:32:19
Janos Pasztor
But it will so in some ways, the scenario of no action.
02:35:32:19 - 02:35:33:24
Janos Pasztor
Versus action.
02:35:33:24 - 02:35:36:20
Janos Pasztor
In the initial years might actually look quite.
02:35:36:20 - 02:35:39:17
Janos Pasztor
Similar. The initial decade or two decades.
02:35:39:19 - 02:35:52:08
Janos Pasztor
But what will be different? What will be different is that there will be, where the conditions will be created for a much faster return.
02:35:52:10 - 02:35:53:07
Janos Pasztor
Eventually.
02:35:53:10 - 02:35:55:12
Janos Pasztor
To, the goal.
02:35:55:14 - 02:35:58:08
Janos Pasztor
Of 1.5 degrees. And.
02:35:58:08 - 02:36:01:09
Janos Pasztor
And, a much better ability.
02:36:01:09 - 02:36:03:03
Janos Pasztor
Of the Earth system to be a.
02:36:03:03 - 02:36:13:13
Janos Pasztor
Resilient, for the future. So by, by 15, 20 years from now, if, if we're taking those actions, then the outlook will.
02:36:13:13 - 02:36:20:00
Janos Pasztor
Suddenly become much better for, the rest of the century. And, and I.
02:36:20:00 - 02:36:24:14
Janos Pasztor
Think that's important that right now, the outlook let's be honest, it's not about.
02:36:24:14 - 02:36:26:13
Janos Pasztor
Being pessimist or optimist. You look at the.
02:36:26:13 - 02:36:35:18
Janos Pasztor
Numbers and frankly, it doesn't look good. It doesn't look good. And and and not just it doesn't look good, but even the the current.
02:36:35:18 - 02:36:41:15
Janos Pasztor
Actions are not only not enough, but in some cases, again, going back to recent elections in certain.
02:36:41:15 - 02:36:44:11
Janos Pasztor
Countries, it's actually looking worse.
02:36:44:11 - 02:36:45:16
Janos Pasztor
Than it did a year.
02:36:45:16 - 02:36:55:21
Janos Pasztor
Ago. So, we're not it doesn't look good. But if we can really do this massive improvement in emission reductions, beginning to.
02:36:55:23 - 02:37:00:07
Janos Pasztor
Start removing carbon in a serious way.
02:37:00:09 - 02:37:10:03
Janos Pasztor
Maybe we don't need. And we can do much more adaptation. Maybe we can actually get away from doing planetary cooling altogether. And that would be.
02:37:10:03 - 02:37:11:12
Janos Pasztor
Really nice if we could do
02:37:11:12 - 02:37:12:06
Janos Pasztor
that.
02:37:12:08 - 02:37:23:22
Christian Soschner
That's true, that's true. I think science fiction has a lot of visions for the future. Like, mathematics. I don't know if you have, seen the movie of with, you know, China in the 80s, 90s. Now we.
02:37:23:22 - 02:37:24:01
Janos Pasztor
Have
02:37:24:01 - 02:37:26:11
Janos Pasztor
science. I've, I've seen them.
02:37:26:11 - 02:37:27:22
Janos Pasztor
And, I, I'm.
02:37:27:22 - 02:37:38:14
Janos Pasztor
I'm very much hoping that we can avoid that kind of a future. My, my favorite science fiction is the Ministry for the Future of Kim Stanley Robinson.
02:37:38:16 - 02:37:39:06
Janos Pasztor
Which.
02:37:39:12 - 02:38:07:10
Janos Pasztor
Starts in a very dystopian future, of, millions of people dying. And in a country unilaterally starting stratospheric aerosol injection, and then lots of things to, to and eventually, it giving hope, for the future. So, what I particularly liked in that book is that it's as all good science fiction is actually quite close to reality.
02:38:07:12 - 02:38:16:19
Janos Pasztor
And, but anyway, it's it's, science fiction is an important source of ideas. And, and and.
02:38:16:19 - 02:38:18:08
Janos Pasztor
It's really about the narrative.
02:38:18:09 - 02:38:18:16
Janos Pasztor
There are.
02:38:18:16 - 02:38:19:02
Janos Pasztor
Different.
02:38:19:02 - 02:38:20:03
Janos Pasztor
Narratives.
02:38:20:05 - 02:38:20:18
Janos Pasztor
You know, you.
02:38:20:18 - 02:38:23:14
Janos Pasztor
Ask me briefly about how I see the the futures.
02:38:23:14 - 02:38:32:06
Janos Pasztor
I think this this needs much more, stories to tell. What the what the future will look like.
02:38:32:08 - 02:38:34:17
Janos Pasztor
Under these different scenarios.
02:38:34:19 - 02:38:36:09
Janos Pasztor
So, and in a.
02:38:36:09 - 02:38:37:21
Janos Pasztor
Way that the people can.
02:38:37:21 - 02:38:42:01
Janos Pasztor
Understand it because I don't think people,
02:38:42:03 - 02:38:49:06
Janos Pasztor
Even people who have been thinking about these issues, they don't see very clearly the story of how this is going to look like.
02:38:49:08 - 02:38:59:09
Janos Pasztor
Like this idea that even if you do all these things, the next few decades actually may not change very much right away. It will take a bit longer.
02:38:59:11 - 02:39:02:00
Janos Pasztor
For those, changes to come into effect.
02:39:02:01 - 02:39:04:23
Janos Pasztor
Since things take a long time not just intergovernmental.
02:39:04:23 - 02:39:11:07
Janos Pasztor
Negotiations, but interaction with the atmosphere and the ocean. And all.
02:39:11:07 - 02:39:13:02
Janos Pasztor
These things take a long time, and there's a lot of.
02:39:13:02 - 02:39:13:14
Janos Pasztor
Inertia.
02:39:13:14 - 02:39:15:10
Janos Pasztor
So these things can happen.
02:39:15:10 - 02:39:17:20
Janos Pasztor
Over time, over overnight.
02:39:17:22 - 02:39:28:21
Christian Soschner
But it compounds at the end of the day. So when you start today and then you have a little bit every year, it compounds and then it accelerates the book. So your recommendation is to ministry to me is to have.
02:39:28:21 - 02:39:29:24
Janos Pasztor
Ministry for the future.
02:39:29:24 - 02:39:31:14
Christian Soschner
But if you good it's a good book.
02:39:31:20 - 02:39:36:01
Janos Pasztor
It's there behind me. They have it every day.
02:39:36:03 - 02:39:37:01
Christian Soschner
I have it on both sides.
02:39:37:03 - 02:39:40:00
Janos Pasztor
I can do it. I can do a little.
02:39:40:02 - 02:39:43:07
Christian Soschner
Yeah, yeah, I have it on the bookshelf, but it's far further away from.
02:39:43:08 - 02:39:46:02
Janos Pasztor
And so this is a this is a good strategy.
02:39:46:08 - 02:39:48:05
Christian Soschner
I haven't tried it yet. So to, to you
02:39:48:05 - 02:40:07:05
Christian Soschner
see, I mean, we have all these dystopian futures where we say mad Max and also the that the, the book that you presented starts with a dystopian future. Do you see the possibility that it would go in a completely different direction and create Paradise with a lot of biodiversity, a healthy planet where everybody can be fed on this planet?
02:40:07:05 - 02:40:17:05
Christian Soschner
No poverty to? You see, with our technology and with the intergovernmental relations today, do you see the possibility that we go into a bright future as humanity?
02:40:17:21 - 02:40:22:13
Janos Pasztor
I absolutely think that is possible. Again, it's the same
02:40:22:13 - 02:40:30:00
Janos Pasztor
as I said before, I wouldn't be here talking about these issues if I didn't think this was possible. Then I would just give up right now.
02:40:30:02 - 02:40:35:13
Janos Pasztor
But I am convinced that it's possible. It's it's difficult. It's not easy.
02:40:35:13 - 02:40:45:22
Janos Pasztor
But I, I think it's technologically, it's possible. Scientifically it's possible politically it's more difficult, but it is still possible. So let's make sure we.
02:40:45:22 - 02:40:48:19
Janos Pasztor
Find ways to get the job done.
02:40:48:21 - 02:40:55:17
Janos Pasztor
And, there is no reason why. I mean, I don't think we'll ever, achieve.
02:40:55:17 - 02:41:03:08
Janos Pasztor
A kind of perfect society where there's never there's no problems and there are no issues and everything.
02:41:03:10 - 02:41:05:22
Janos Pasztor
Well, it would be boring, but, you know, frankly, I.
02:41:05:22 - 02:41:06:12
Janos Pasztor
Would prefer.
02:41:06:12 - 02:41:08:01
Janos Pasztor
The boring one than.
02:41:08:03 - 02:41:09:11
Janos Pasztor
Getting cooked or something.
02:41:09:11 - 02:41:19:24
Janos Pasztor
But, but, but but I think it's possible. And I think it is possible to have a future where humanity lives within.
02:41:20:01 - 02:41:26:00
Janos Pasztor
The boundaries of the Earth system that are real.
02:41:26:02 - 02:41:33:22
Janos Pasztor
And within that, to be able to provide, for the needs of society.
02:41:33:22 - 02:41:42:12
Janos Pasztor
I was careful not to use the word basic needs, because that gets into definitional problems, but needs, okay, of, of.
02:41:42:12 - 02:41:51:06
Janos Pasztor
Society and, we we just have to find a way to increase the transition. We are actually.
02:41:51:06 - 02:41:54:22
Janos Pasztor
Going in the right direction, broadly speaking.
02:41:54:24 - 02:41:57:18
Janos Pasztor
But not fast enough. And that's where the problem.
02:41:57:18 - 02:41:58:02
Janos Pasztor
Is that.
02:41:58:02 - 02:42:05:15
Janos Pasztor
It's the transition is taking too long. And even if I look at the incredible changing, let's say, the photovoltaics.
02:42:05:15 - 02:42:07:07
Janos Pasztor
Which we discussed earlier.
02:42:07:09 - 02:42:08:04
Janos Pasztor
What has happened.
02:42:08:04 - 02:42:09:22
Janos Pasztor
In the last 20, 30 years on.
02:42:09:22 - 02:42:11:11
Janos Pasztor
Photovoltaics is absolutely.
02:42:11:11 - 02:42:13:07
Janos Pasztor
Remarkable.
02:42:13:09 - 02:42:23:04
Janos Pasztor
But even that is not fast enough. And that's just a small part, small slice of the pie. We need this a much bigger.
02:42:23:06 - 02:42:26:00
Janos Pasztor
Much bigger change. And it requires.
02:42:26:02 - 02:42:28:21
Janos Pasztor
Technological solutions where the private.
02:42:28:21 - 02:42:30:22
Janos Pasztor
Sector can have a very serious.
02:42:30:22 - 02:42:37:00
Janos Pasztor
Impact. But it requires, a societal change. And some of that societal.
02:42:37:00 - 02:42:39:17
Janos Pasztor
Change can be triggered by technology.
02:42:39:19 - 02:42:49:15
Janos Pasztor
And some of it requires other things. And we need to work on all those things. But I think it's possible. And I, I still have a.
02:42:49:15 - 02:42:52:20
Janos Pasztor
Few more years left after my retirement, and I.
02:42:52:21 - 02:42:55:02
Janos Pasztor
Hope to continue to look.
02:42:55:02 - 02:42:59:08
Janos Pasztor
At these issues and contribute, to the extent possible.
02:42:59:10 - 02:43:00:13
Janos Pasztor
To actually get in.
02:43:00:13 - 02:43:01:24
Janos Pasztor
That direction.
02:43:02:01 - 02:43:07:15
Christian Soschner
Jeff Bezos is working on longevity. So we will also have a solution for that. I think it's possible.
02:43:07:17 - 02:43:08:24
Janos Pasztor
I actually I'm not sure that.
02:43:08:24 - 02:43:16:01
Janos Pasztor
Longevity is that is is part of that solution. But anyway, that's another that's another discussion, another podcast,
02:43:16:01 - 02:43:16:14
Janos Pasztor
isn't it?
02:43:16:20 - 02:43:36:13
Christian Soschner
I think yeah, I think I think our goal must be to create a bright future. When I look at the last three decades, at least in the West, but also in China and in India, I think the advancements you used to go back remind you about. Remarkable. They are really, indeed remarkable. We have a global communication these days that wasn't there in the 80s.
02:43:36:15 - 02:43:59:20
Christian Soschner
We have advancements in all areas, food value chains. We have enough to eat for a vast majority of the population. We have still a lot of problems to fix. But I think the the trajectory and the path is upwards, it's towards a better future with all the problems that come with that. I think we have the possibility to fix the planet and to fix the problems.
02:43:59:20 - 02:44:12:03
Christian Soschner
We just need to do it and not end in some stupid war or something like, we destroy ourselves. It's in our hands, but I think we are moving in the right direction long term.
02:44:12:05 - 02:44:13:10
Janos Pasztor
Kind of things are, too. I mean,
02:44:13:10 - 02:44:29:08
Janos Pasztor
it's in our hands is a good way to say it. It was the the, major statement in 1992, Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in our hands. And, it's,
02:44:29:10 - 02:44:35:11
Janos Pasztor
Our hands are a bit wobbly these days. So we need to make sure that the hands.
02:44:35:11 - 02:44:38:00
Janos Pasztor
Are clear and firm, and they're.
02:44:38:00 - 02:44:38:11
Janos Pasztor
Going.
02:44:38:11 - 02:44:56:05
Janos Pasztor
In the direction that was so well outlined in Rio. Back in 92, where we need to go. And then reconfirmed in the Sustainable Development Goals of 2015. And and and so on. So I think we can do it. I'm, I'm convinced.
02:44:56:07 - 02:45:27:10
Christian Soschner
Let's let's you let's assume that, tomorrow, fairy comes to your place and gives you the possibility to enforce free actions to move towards a better future. Free actions for 2025. Which free actions would you choose of which you know, when we do this today, we will have a better future in 50 years.
02:45:27:12 - 02:45:29:21
Janos Pasztor
Well, it's.
02:45:29:23 - 02:45:31:03
Janos Pasztor
This is a difficult one, but.
02:45:31:03 - 02:45:37:01
Janos Pasztor
I would say that, I mean, we are focusing on, on the climate part.
02:45:37:01 - 02:45:40:15
Janos Pasztor
Of a bigger picture. Right? And,
02:45:40:17 - 02:45:44:09
Janos Pasztor
But I do think that climate is perhaps in some ways more.
02:45:44:09 - 02:45:46:02
Janos Pasztor
Important than some of the others, because.
02:45:46:02 - 02:45:48:04
Janos Pasztor
It impacts everything, and everything.
02:45:48:04 - 02:45:49:07
Janos Pasztor
Impacts the climate.
02:45:49:07 - 02:45:56:07
Janos Pasztor
So within that, I would say that, I'd like to, get the fairy.
02:45:56:07 - 02:45:59:17
Janos Pasztor
To ensure with me that we can.
02:45:59:19 - 02:46:00:06
Janos Pasztor
Change.
02:46:00:06 - 02:46:02:12
Janos Pasztor
The thinking. First of all, that.
02:46:02:12 - 02:46:04:18
Janos Pasztor
Climate policy is not just.
02:46:04:18 - 02:46:06:06
Janos Pasztor
About climate policy in.
02:46:06:06 - 02:46:09:04
Janos Pasztor
A silo, but it's about the totality.
02:46:09:04 - 02:46:10:24
Janos Pasztor
Of the Sustainable Development.
02:46:10:24 - 02:46:18:08
Janos Pasztor
Goals. And in fact, even beyond. And this also implies that we have to think of a transition.
02:46:18:08 - 02:46:21:16
Janos Pasztor
Between now and the sustainable development future.
02:46:21:21 - 02:46:23:16
Janos Pasztor
In a just manner.
02:46:23:18 - 02:46:26:06
Janos Pasztor
There is North-South days East and West.
02:46:26:06 - 02:46:27:06
Janos Pasztor
There are poor people.
02:46:27:06 - 02:46:27:15
Janos Pasztor
In San.
02:46:27:15 - 02:46:41:22
Janos Pasztor
Francisco. There are rich people in San Francisco. We need to think of that just transition. So that's one. The other one is that we have an economic system, that actually fundamentally encourages.
02:46:41:22 - 02:46:45:07
Janos Pasztor
The waste and the extraction that we have.
02:46:45:09 - 02:46:53:11
Janos Pasztor
Now without going into the the real fundamentals. But we have a problem that we measure progress by GDP.
02:46:53:13 - 02:46:55:18
Janos Pasztor
Gross domestic domestic product, and.
02:46:55:18 - 02:47:07:04
Janos Pasztor
It's too narrow. It does not really measure progress. We need to go beyond GDP in order to be able to reach these sustainable Development goals and.
02:47:07:04 - 02:47:09:00
Janos Pasztor
The climate goals. Within.
02:47:09:00 - 02:47:14:19
Janos Pasztor
That, and then a couple of, the important.
02:47:14:19 - 02:47:15:17
Janos Pasztor
Elements of this.
02:47:15:17 - 02:47:18:21
Janos Pasztor
Again, it's to help to to the climate goals.
02:47:18:21 - 02:47:21:01
Janos Pasztor
But thinking of the broader picture.
02:47:21:03 - 02:47:22:11
Janos Pasztor
One of the biggest problems.
02:47:22:11 - 02:47:24:13
Janos Pasztor
We're facing is the food system.
02:47:24:15 - 02:47:26:03
Janos Pasztor
The food system is terribly.
02:47:26:03 - 02:47:28:02
Janos Pasztor
Carbon intensive.
02:47:28:04 - 02:47:31:03
Janos Pasztor
Especially the meat based food.
02:47:31:03 - 02:47:32:22
Janos Pasztor
System. And let's face it, the.
02:47:32:22 - 02:47:36:14
Janos Pasztor
Richer countries get, the more meat they eat.
02:47:36:16 - 02:47:38:03
Janos Pasztor
That's the reality.
02:47:38:03 - 02:47:39:08
Janos Pasztor
So we need to.
02:47:39:08 - 02:47:43:17
Janos Pasztor
Think of the non-meat based food systems, for the future.
02:47:43:17 - 02:47:47:01
Janos Pasztor
Again, it's doable, but it's something that needs to be.
02:47:47:01 - 02:47:48:16
Janos Pasztor
Put in place.
02:47:48:18 - 02:47:50:01
Janos Pasztor
And
02:47:50:03 - 02:47:55:11
Janos Pasztor
And I add one more is a question of solidarity, which I sort of alluded to because.
02:47:55:13 - 02:47:56:18
Janos Pasztor
You cannot achieve.
02:47:56:18 - 02:48:00:14
Janos Pasztor
Any of this stuff by just thinking about yourself.
02:48:00:16 - 02:48:05:04
Janos Pasztor
It it doesn't work because you can think of your own.
02:48:05:04 - 02:48:11:04
Janos Pasztor
Country and say, we're just going to think of ourselves and forget the rest of the world.
02:48:11:07 - 02:48:15:09
Janos Pasztor
But, you know, if the rest of the world continues to, emit carbon.
02:48:15:09 - 02:48:16:02
Janos Pasztor
Dioxide.
02:48:16:03 - 02:48:28:02
Janos Pasztor
The whole world is going to get warmer. And if the rest of the world continues to produce plastics and throw them away, you will still be swamped by plastic waste.
02:48:28:04 - 02:48:29:24
Janos Pasztor
In the Gulf or whatever you call it.
02:48:30:05 - 02:48:34:20
Janos Pasztor
So, you know, it's it's these are the realities.
02:48:34:20 - 02:48:35:17
Janos Pasztor
Of our world. So.
02:48:35:21 - 02:48:39:02
Janos Pasztor
Which means that you have to have solidarity.
02:48:39:02 - 02:48:42:05
Janos Pasztor
To kind of.
02:48:42:07 - 02:48:53:24
Janos Pasztor
Enlightened self-interest that, yes, it is it is not just in our own interest, but it's actually it's to help the others is in the.
02:48:53:24 - 02:48:55:15
Janos Pasztor
Interest of the totality.
02:48:55:20 - 02:48:56:19
Janos Pasztor
Of society.
02:48:56:23 - 02:48:57:09
Janos Pasztor
And,
02:48:57:15 - 02:49:01:07
Janos Pasztor
So in that context, you know, again, to look at some of the.
02:49:01:07 - 02:49:02:16
Janos Pasztor
Practical realities.
02:49:02:19 - 02:49:05:05
Janos Pasztor
Of shutting down an operation.
02:49:05:05 - 02:49:07:23
Janos Pasztor
Like USA from one day to another. I'm sorry.
02:49:07:23 - 02:49:16:02
Janos Pasztor
That's a wrong signal to the world. That's not going to help us. So, this is the kind of.
02:49:16:02 - 02:49:19:19
Janos Pasztor
Things that I'd like to ferry, to, to help.
02:49:19:19 - 02:49:21:09
Janos Pasztor
But then, there's one.
02:49:21:09 - 02:49:22:09
Janos Pasztor
More thing, which is.
02:49:22:13 - 02:49:38:16
Janos Pasztor
How to make this happen. And this is where the role of the politicians is so important. The politicians have to lead to bring society around to these issues, because at the end, whether you live in the so-called.
02:49:38:16 - 02:49:39:03
Janos Pasztor
Western.
02:49:39:03 - 02:49:40:02
Janos Pasztor
Democracies.
02:49:40:02 - 02:49:42:13
Janos Pasztor
Or you live in countries with different.
02:49:42:13 - 02:49:54:21
Janos Pasztor
Systems, you need to bring the people around one way or another. And, and that's a political that's the work of politics. And so.
02:49:54:21 - 02:49:58:17
Janos Pasztor
If, if this theory could help the politicians to, to.
02:49:58:22 - 02:50:08:05
Janos Pasztor
To to bring the society around with them, because otherwise we'll be stuck with the short term,
02:50:08:07 - 02:50:10:09
Janos Pasztor
You know, the, the election.
02:50:10:11 - 02:50:10:20
Janos Pasztor
For.
02:50:10:20 - 02:50:12:22
Janos Pasztor
Your election cycles, for the.
02:50:12:24 - 02:50:14:09
Janos Pasztor
Politicians,
02:50:14:09 - 02:50:16:16
Janos Pasztor
the, short term.
02:50:16:20 - 02:50:20:22
Janos Pasztor
Financial reports of the private sector and all of that.
02:50:21:01 - 02:50:22:14
Janos Pasztor
So we need we need.
02:50:22:16 - 02:50:27:22
Janos Pasztor
Society to come around. And only the political process can do that.
02:50:27:24 - 02:51:00:19
Christian Soschner
Yeah. That's true. We need visionaries. Visionaries. That leads people into a better future together and not, separated and, divided. When I look at, the young from a building on what you said when you when you look at the young population, I mean, many of these of many of them are frustrated these days. And what they do sometimes is, civil disobedience and protests and, destroying things to raise awareness for the problems we have with the climate change.
02:51:00:21 - 02:51:17:01
Christian Soschner
In my opinion, it's not the best way to move forward. How do you see this, this topic of, civil disobedience to get people going. What's your advice to a young population? This is the best way to handle things, or is there a better way?
02:51:17:03 - 02:51:18:07
Janos Pasztor
Look, first
02:51:18:07 - 02:51:31:14
Janos Pasztor
of all, I don't think it's my job as, pretty soon, over 70 years old person to give that advice to the young people after we've messed up the world for them. So I think.
02:51:31:14 - 02:51:32:04
Janos Pasztor
Young people.
02:51:32:04 - 02:51:34:09
Janos Pasztor
Need to figure out for themselves
02:51:34:09 - 02:51:41:00
Janos Pasztor
what is the best way for them to to move forward. But I do think that civil disobedience.
02:51:41:02 - 02:51:41:14
Janos Pasztor
And.
02:51:41:18 - 02:51:43:06
Janos Pasztor
Mass movements.
02:51:43:08 - 02:51:47:13
Janos Pasztor
Can help, and they do help. Now, whether you want to glue.
02:51:47:13 - 02:51:48:22
Janos Pasztor
Yourselves to the Autobahn
02:51:48:22 - 02:51:55:17
Janos Pasztor
or whether you you, just walk out and keep repeating slogans or use stuff envelopes.
02:51:55:17 - 02:51:58:01
Janos Pasztor
Or whatever you do. They're different. People are.
02:51:58:01 - 02:51:58:15
Janos Pasztor
Prepared to.
02:51:58:15 - 02:52:01:00
Janos Pasztor
Do different things and in different societies.
02:52:01:00 - 02:52:02:03
Janos Pasztor
Different things will work.
02:52:02:07 - 02:52:33:13
Janos Pasztor
But in the end, what is happening globally is having an impact. I know it's happening in Switzerland. There were some court cases. Young people did all kinds of things to the banks and, and, at the end of the day, it does raise awareness. It does raise the importance, look at what Greta Thunberg did, with her and her, Friday for schools, you know, as schools for, you know, it's just amazing.
02:52:33:13 - 02:52:46:24
Janos Pasztor
So, yes, different things, can be done, but without those, we're not going to move forward. Now, they those movements will not necessarily change the world.
02:52:47:01 - 02:52:49:19
Janos Pasztor
The political process will change the world.
02:52:50:00 - 02:52:51:09
Janos Pasztor
But part of what the.
02:52:51:09 - 02:52:51:24
Janos Pasztor
Political.
02:52:51:24 - 02:52:55:08
Janos Pasztor
Process listens to is precisely these.
02:52:55:13 - 02:52:57:20
Janos Pasztor
Activities by young people.
02:52:57:21 - 02:53:04:00
Janos Pasztor
And not just young people. We have the grandmothers for climate, grandparents for climate change in Switzerland, and the.
02:53:04:00 - 02:53:08:09
Janos Pasztor
Grandmothers who took the, the, the government to the European Court.
02:53:08:13 - 02:53:13:14
Janos Pasztor
So you know, the different people do different things. And there were some old people who glued.
02:53:13:14 - 02:53:15:01
Janos Pasztor
Themselves to the Autobahn as.
02:53:15:02 - 02:53:17:17
Janos Pasztor
Well.
02:53:17:19 - 02:53:47:23
Christian Soschner
As I think and, you mentioned that we messed up, developed them over 50 and, I don't think that anybody intentionally messed up the world for the next generation. I think the problem is that every generation has to solve the problems in their, in their time. When you think back to the 50s and 60s, when my grandparents were basically teenagers, 40s, 5060s, I mean, it was in Europe, it was post-World War Two, and their job was to rebuild Europe.
02:53:47:23 - 02:54:16:02
Christian Soschner
And the biggest problems, they had from our conversations, what I got is no food, nothing to eat, no shelter, no heating. So they solved the primary problems for their kids. Have a house, get it warm, have enough to eat. And then we have you mentioned before with, the the effects in a complex system. So when you inject aerosols in the atmosphere, in the stratosphere, you have some probably unknown effects and, some new problems appear.
02:54:16:02 - 02:54:36:24
Christian Soschner
And I think it's the same with with the generation of migrant parents, that they were not thinking of the downstream problems and say, okay, we have these problems to solve now because otherwise we are dead. And our children and our kids and our grandkids are that hopefully they have enough to eat. And then my generation has to deal with, the aftermath and say, okay, now we have the systems in place.
02:54:36:24 - 02:54:50:14
Christian Soschner
They are not perfect. Now we need to fix them. And the kids that are now in their teens and early 20s have then to solve the next downstream problems. And I don't think this will ever end. It's a permanent process.
02:54:50:16 - 02:54:53:14
Janos Pasztor
So I, I agree with you, but there is there are some.
02:54:53:14 - 02:54:55:10
Janos Pasztor
Things that one needs to say.
02:54:55:12 - 02:54:57:23
Janos Pasztor
On climate we've known.
02:54:57:23 - 02:54:58:05
Janos Pasztor
Now.
02:54:58:05 - 02:55:00:11
Janos Pasztor
For over four.
02:55:00:13 - 02:55:06:00
Janos Pasztor
Five decades what the problem is and what the solutions are.
02:55:06:02 - 02:55:13:20
Janos Pasztor
In 1992 we developed a pretty forward looking, pretty interesting and pretty well crafted international.
02:55:13:20 - 02:55:15:14
Janos Pasztor
Treaty on what to do about.
02:55:15:14 - 02:55:19:24
Janos Pasztor
It. So, yes. It's not intentional.
02:55:19:24 - 02:55:21:09
Janos Pasztor
That we messed up the world.
02:55:21:09 - 02:55:28:20
Janos Pasztor
But I think it's fair to say that for the last 30 years, we knew exactly.
02:55:29:01 - 02:55:30:04
Janos Pasztor
What had to be done.
02:55:30:06 - 02:55:45:12
Janos Pasztor
And we didn't do enough. And it's really our generation. Okay. That is something we can say. And that's what Greta Thunberg is say. And, and I think that's, that's, you know, it's it's not like the individuals in my.
02:55:45:12 - 02:55:52:14
Janos Pasztor
Generation that we said, okay, we're going to screw up the world. We don't care. We just want to buy this Ferrari and we'll be all happy. And then.
02:55:52:16 - 02:55:59:13
Janos Pasztor
You know, that's not the way it's worked. But the collectively, that is the way it.
02:55:59:13 - 02:56:02:08
Janos Pasztor
Is that we have known, governments had.
02:56:02:08 - 02:56:06:09
Janos Pasztor
Known and, you know, individuals on the whole have.
02:56:06:09 - 02:56:07:05
Janos Pasztor
Also known.
02:56:07:09 - 02:56:08:22
Janos Pasztor
For decades what.
02:56:08:22 - 02:56:11:08
Janos Pasztor
Needs to be done. And we hadn't done it.
02:56:11:10 - 02:56:23:11
Christian Soschner
Okay, okay. So we need to move a little bit faster. Yes. It's the road to action, not just the next generation, but our generation.
02:56:23:13 - 02:56:24:10
Janos Pasztor
Yeah indeed.
02:56:24:12 - 02:56:49:00
Christian Soschner
Yeah. It's really great talking to you. Just check the time. We are now three hours in our conversation and I should, I should head to the next meeting and we have, I think I counted 2 or 3 ideas for, for new podcasts. I really enjoyed listening to your stories and get much more information, and you helped me understand the problem better and also the solutions that people are working on.
02:56:49:02 - 02:57:13:07
Christian Soschner
And I also like to especially like the last part, where you raised this, my awareness of that we are really moving too slow and we can move faster, and we have it in our hands and should focus more on keeping our planet intact for the kids and the grandkids. And those focus on other things like, having stupid balls somewhere in the world, but really fix the problems to have a brighter future for humanity, you know?
02:57:13:10 - 02:57:15:19
Christian Soschner
Thank you very much for your time.
02:57:15:21 - 02:57:26:01
Janos Pasztor
Thank you very much. I appreciated our discussion. And, let's hope that this contributes a little bit, to the broader discussions we need to having society. Thank you.
02:57:26:03 - 02:57:31:09
Christian Soschner
I totally agree, Janusz. Have a great weekend and let's catch up soon, okay.
02:57:31:10 - 02:57:32:10
Janos Pasztor
Take care.
02:57:32:12 - 02:57:36:05
Christian Soschner
You too. Bye bye.
02:57:36:05 - 02:57:54:22
Christian Soschner
climate action isn't just a policy choice, it's a moral and strategic imperative. The clock is ticking, and what we do next that matters for centuries. Today, pastor helped me see why a solar radiation modification and carbon removal were armed fringe ideas.
02:57:54:24 - 02:58:30:00
Christian Soschner
They're part of a growing toolbox. We may need if we want a habitable planet, but they also race deep ethically and governments. But they also raise deep ethical and governance questions that demand global attention. Technology alone won't save us. We need societal consent, smart governance and political courage. The big question is can we act fast enough and together enough before the consequences choose for us?
02:58:30:02 - 02:58:58:04
Christian Soschner
If this episode sparked something like a new idea, a concern, a challenge to your assumptions. Help us keep this conversation alive. Follow the show. Leave a comment. Share it with a leader you respect. Every listen, every comment and every share helps the team grow the show. It brings in deeper dialog, working voices, and the kind of thinking that drives meaningful change.
02:58:58:06 - 02:59:21:00
Christian Soschner
Your support shapes the future of these conversations. The future of this planet depends on leadership. We can and the willingness to rethink everything. Stay brave, stay informed, and keep asking the questions that truly matter. Until next time, step out and hit that subscribe button.
