Grain Markets and Other Stuff

End-of-War Hopes Send Oil and Grains Lower

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🇺🇸🪖 War signals easing: Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could be short-lived and nearing an end. He is also considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets cooled, with crude dropping below $90 after earlier surging above $119. 🌍⛽

🛢️🤝 Global response: Group of Seven energy ministers will meet to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves, and the U.S. may ease oil sanctions on Russia to help stabilize energy prices.

🌽📉 Grain markets pull back: Profit-taking pushed futures lower.

  • Corn fell ~7¢ to $4.54/bu (after hitting the highest level since May 2025 earlier in the session).
  • Soybeans dropped ~5¢ to $11.96/bu.
  • Wheat declined ~14¢ to about $6.03/bu.
    The sell-off came as crude oil retreated from overnight highs.

📊📅 USDA report day: United States Department of Agriculture will release the Crop Production and WASDE report (11am CST). Expectations:

  • Slight increase in U.S. corn ending stocks 🌽
  • Slight decline in soybean & wheat stocks 🌱🌾
  • Global stocks mostly unchanged
    Traders are more focused on the upcoming Prospective Plantings report later this month.

🚢🌽 Export shipments:

  • Corn: 1.5 mmt, down week-to-week but still strong.
  • Soybeans: 879k mt, near expectations; China bought ~47% 🇨🇳
  • Wheat: 496k mt, well above expectations.

🇧🇷🌱 Brazil harvest update: Soybean harvest is 51% complete, the slowest pace in five years, though still near the average. Dry weather in March has helped progress. Second-crop corn planting is 82% complete.

🥩⚠️ Beef plant strike: Workers at a major JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado (capacity 6,000 cattle/day) plan to strike. Impact may be limited because the industry currently has more slaughter capacity than available cattle, allowing feedlots to shift animals to other plants.

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