Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.
Grain Markets and Other Stuff
TERRIBLE US HRW Wheat Ratings + Slow Iowa Corn Planting
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🌾 US winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate last week, with only 30% of the crop rated good-excellent — the lowest reading for this week since 2023 and third lowest in a decade. 📉 The situation is even more dire in top HRW-producing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where just 14.6% of the crop is rated good-excellent and nearly half sits in poor-very poor condition.
🌽 Corn planting surged to 11% complete, outpacing the 9% historical average, while soybeans rocketed to 12% planted — more than double the 5% average. 🌱 Spring wheat planting also matched its historical average at 12%, signaling strong early-season momentum across the board.
💰 The Trump administration is eyeing tariff revenue as a tool to boost domestic fertilizer production, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlining plans to expand capacity within 12–18 months. 🏭 In the meantime, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is pressing fertilizer companies for concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than open-ended talks.
🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly in the books at 92% complete, right in line with last year's pace, while favorable weather is supporting the developing safrinha corn crop. ☁️ However, CropProphet's Euro model data suggest Brazil's second corn areas could see just 47% of normal rainfall over both the 1–7 and 8–14 day forecast windows.
🇨🇳 China's agriculture ministry is projecting a 6.1% drop in soybean imports this year, with declines reaching 26% by 2035 as Beijing pushes hard for greater food self-sufficiency. 🥩 Pork, beef, and dairy imports are also expected to fall year-over-year, while total grain production is forecast to climb 5.3% by 2035.
🚢 US corn export inspections came in at 1.7 MMT for the week ending April 16, near the top of pre-report estimates, while soybean shipments hit 748,678 MT — up 34% versus the same week last year. 🌾 Wheat stole the show with inspections of 518,141 MT, a jaw-dropping 90% jump from the prior week, with China accounting for roughly 60% of total weekly inspections across all commodities.
HRW Wheat / Corn / Soybeans
SPEAKER_00Good morning, everybody. It's Tuesday, April 21st, 5 23 a.m. Central Time. Grain markets are mixed this morning. Pretty quiet overnight trade. May corn futures down a quarter cent at 4.51 and three quarters. December corn down a half cent at 479. May soybeans up five and a half at 11.71 and a quarter. November beans up four at 11.61 and three quarters. May Chicago wheat up one and a quarter at 598 and a quarter. May Kansas City wheat up two and a half at 637 and a half. May spring wheat up two and a half cents at 657 and three quarters. USDA had its weekly crop progress report out yesterday. Why don't we start there?
SPEAKER_01So according to yesterday's report, U.S. winter wheat conditions continue to worsen through Sunday. The crop was rated 30% good to excellent, down from 34% the previous week. The rating is the lowest for the week since 2023 and the third lowest in the past 10 years. U.S. corn planting was 11% complete through Sunday, up from 5% the prior week, and ahead of the 9% average. Soybean planting reached 12%, up from 6% the prior week, and well above 5% on average. And then the U.S. spring wheat crop was 12% planted compared to 6% last week and 12% on average.
SPEAKER_00Okay, let's look at the corn planting pace first. 11% nationally versus nine on average. Mackenzie, do they grow any corn in Iowa?
SPEAKER_01I think they grow a little bit.
Tariff Money for Fertilizer Relief?
SPEAKER_00Iowa is the country's top corn producing state. They were only 2% planted as of Sunday versus 8% on average, and they weren't any better in soybeans, 1% in beans versus 4% on average. So there have been some rains, especially in the eastern part of the state. I know that we've got a ton of viewers and listeners in the state of Iowa. So uh drop us a comment, let us know what's going on. But things are slow. Um, Missouri's slow and everywhere else is like pretty much normal-ish. As a matter of fact, in the uh southern corn growing areas, you look at Tennessee, 64% planted versus 24 on average. It's because it's been so damn dry in those areas, uh, but the crop's going in pretty quickly. Soybeans, uh, nothing really to see here. We're ahead of average, and a lot of that has to do with changing uh agronomic practices. A lot of row crop producers are planting soybeans ahead of corn for agronomic reasons. Uh things just turn out and yield better that way. Okay, spring wheat, pretty much normal ish. Here's where we'll spend some time is winter wheat. The winter wheat crop, what was the what was the rating? 30% good to excellent. Okay, the winter wheat rating is being skewed because the SRW areas in the Midwest are rated uh pretty strong. But here's the deal with the HRW crop, and this is where the problem is. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Nebraska are the top five HRW wheat producers. These states have an average good to excellent rating of just 14.6% good to excellent. The uh average poor to very poor rating across those five states is 47% poor to very poor. So I think we've got a real problem here as it relates to the HRW wheat crop. There's not really any rain on tap during the next five days for these uh western HRW wheat areas, western Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Panhandle area, eastern Colorado, uh, southern Nebraska. Maybe you get something during the five to 10 day period, but these um extended forecasts just continue to fail. It almost makes me wonder like why is the Kansas City wheat market not acting better? We are hovering near the previous highs. Are is the trade waiting on the rains if they come or they don't come? A lot of people out of those areas are telling me, Joe, it's it's too late. Like wheat's got nine lives, we're we're through all nine of them. And um, you know, we're just trying to see what the losses are gonna be now. USDA will put out its first 26-27 balance sheet uh next month, and I'll be curious to see how they quantify what's going on in the southern plains. The one issue is that of course in the in the US, at least through the current marketing year, USDA will tell you that we're oversupplied. Hey, the ending stocks to use ratio domestically is gonna be 46%. That's the highest in uh what, five, six, seven years. Um, so yeah, you've got the oversupply issue, but I think that this crop uh problem in the southern plains is is the real deal. Here's a corn chart. Figured we'd run some charts uh along with the story. So December corn looks a little bit better. You found some footing um around this 469, 470 area, and we've been able to bounce out of that. There is a uh seasonal tendency to move a little bit higher. We had an absolutely fantastic premium video with Dave Whitcomb that was out last week. Must-know seasonal info for grain marketers. I've never seen anybody explain seasonals as well and as in as detailed a manner as Dave did last week. Uh, if you guys want to see that video, sign up for the premium deal. If you're already a premium sub and you missed it, just email me and I'll send it over to you. Here is November soybeans, sideways to higher. If you could push this November bean contract out above 1164 today, I think that would look really good. And I think you'd probably go up and have a chance to test those highs at 1174 and a quarter. The bean markets acted uh very, very well. Well, um, the corn market really not so much, I guess.
SPEAKER_01According to U.S. Ag Secretary Brick Rollins, the Trump administration is planning to use tariff revenue and funds generated from trade deal renegotiations to expand domestic fertilizer production. The new infrastructure is expected to come online within 12 to 18 months. A formal plan for the for the expanded capacity is slated to be announced next week. In the near term, the administration is working directly with fertilizer companies to address elevated costs. According to USDA Deputy Secretary Steven Baden, the agency is pressing companies to put forward concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than just continuing discussions without measurable progress.
Brazil 2nd Corn Update
SPEAKER_00This was all kind of vague. So does the tariff funds mean they're going to do like another direct payment and say this is your fertilizer payment? That's maybe one possibility. I was hoping for the big DOJ investigation, but what's happening now seems to be in contrast with that idea. Brooke Rollins is having fertilizer executives to the White House to talk to talk about it. That seems to be the exact opposite of a DOJ investigation, doesn't it? I don't know. I don't know if this is moving the way that I would like to see it move. I'd love to see, and and and I I guess this is the optimist in me. I'd love to see the DOJ investigation and see what they actually find, but it doesn't look like it's going to go that way because these companies are too powerful. They got too much money. And now they're visiting Brooke Rollins or the White House. So I don't, I don't know this is going to go the way that I'd like it to go. It could go the way of more uh direct payments or some sort of fertilizer subsidy to the farmer, which um I'm not I'd I'd rather see it go a different way, put it that way.
SPEAKER_01Uh the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearly complete, according to well-followed private group Ag Rural. As of last Thursday, 92% of the crop had been harvested, up from 87% the prior week and steady with the same week last year. Meanwhile, Brazil's second corn crop areas are expected to be drier than normal during the next two weeks.
SPEAKER_00All right, let's take a look at some maps. Here's some good stuff from our friends at Crop Profit. If you are sitting on like a commercial grain desk or you're a fun desk or whatever, you should buy Crop Profit. It's absolutely fantastic. It makes my job a hell of a lot easier. Anyways, over the last 30 days, Brazil's second corn areas have seen 83% of normal rainfall. And I think a lot of that's been more recent. So they've they've caught some rains recently that have been helpful. However, the forecast doesn't look great. Over the next seven days, Brazil's second corn areas expected to see 47%, less than half of normal rainfall over the next week, based on uh Euromodel data. And exact same number for the um would be the eight to 14 day period, I believe. They're supposed to see again 47% of normal rainfall. So I don't think anybody's like sounding the alarm on that yet. But if this forecast comes to fruition, you could run into some issues, I guess, with that second corn crop. U.S. corn still very much competitive on the export market, and uh, we should continue to sell corn on the export market.
SPEAKER_01If you guys have not checked out our premium content, you sure need to do so. Joe, can you tell our viewers about some of our recent premium videos?
SPEAKER_00Absolutely fantastic stuff from our friend Ryan Bennis at Elite Ag Insurance yesterday. Better safety net calculating insurance payments. Ryan put together a beautiful uh calculator that will uh take all of your info. You're gonna punch in your uh APH, your yield prospects, uh crop insurance prices, and it'll spit you out basically like protection levels and um revenue guarantees as it relates to revenue protection. And he's also got uh ECO and SEO in this thing, and it had some really cool visuals and he made this thing available. This is like a super high ROI item. Like if you know this information, it will absolutely help to improve your grain marketing. And this was a follow-up to some recent videos that that we did about the new crop insurance safety nets and how big of a game changer that it was. I'm telling you guys, this this crop insurance thing has changed drastically. And if you don't understand it, you've got to watch these videos because it it will and should affect the way that you market grain uh this summer. I did a video on July 27th, corn, it's five bucks. It's actually, I think, 504 this morning. Why not sell? Uh I ran through some uh carry type stuff. Like, is there enough carry here? And we're gonna have a follow-up to that today with our friend Chris Barron from AgBee Solutions. We're gonna talk about cost of storage. What does it actually cost you to store grain? And does it make sense to uh sell versus a higher price deferred contract or take your HTAs and roll it forward? Guys, our premium subscription is 50 bucks a month. Oh, Joe, it's so expensive. It's not 50 bucks a month for you guys is a rounding error and a very, very tiny rounding error in your uh cost of production and the ROI here is fantastic. I know things are tight right now, but um, this is the one thing you can do to uh help support independent ag media. There is no independent ag media except for us, and um I think that what we're doing here is is worth doing. And you guys are here watching and listening. So help support what we're doing, guys. Um, the info is fantastic. Um, just the videos alone from from Ryan and the stuff we're gonna have with Chris today, it'll pay for the whole thing for probably several years if you pay attention to what we're saying about carries and storage and all that stuff. Uh, give that deal a shot this morning, guys. You can sign up on your phone, it takes 30 seconds. Um, all the emails are easily accessible on your phone. You just click to play the videos on your phone. There's no login instructions, it's super, super easy to do. Uh, don't be pennywise and pound foolish. 50 bucks is nothing for you guys. I know it is, and I know times are tight, but again, you you take that 50 bucks, punch it into your uh cost of production, and it's like it's basically nothing. So give that deal a shot. Oh, um, the other thing I was gonna mention, Mackenzie, you know, that there's this there's no inflation here at all. My price has been the same since 2017.
SPEAKER_01Right, that's wild.
China "News"
SPEAKER_00So, where in the world are you gonna find something that is the same price that it was in 2017? You won't right here. This is it. This is the only place. This and uh TVs, maybe. Yeah, TVs have gotten cheaper. Okay, what's next?
SPEAKER_01Alrighty. So China's agriculture ministry is forecasting soybean imports will decline 6.1% this year compared to 2025. By 2035, imports are slated to decline by 26 percent. Meanwhile, China's total grain production is projected to increase by 2.5% by 2030 and 5.3 percent by 2035. The ministry is also projecting a year-over-year decline in pork, beef, and dairy imports.
Grain Shipments
SPEAKER_00Wow, this is the the monthly China story about hey, we don't need soybeans, we don't need nothing. We're gonna uh we're gonna be totally fine all by ourselves. And maybe they're right. I don't know. Here's how China soybean imports look the last uh 25 years. They continue to increase. So 112 million metric tons this year is equal to the number two years ago. Are they flatlining? Uh possibly, but I think that the Chinese government, and this is a story directly from the Chinese government, basically, I think that they are overstating their own ability to be self-sufficient with regard to soybeans and corn. I threw this chart in as well, and this this is more concerning to me than anything coming out of China, is that you go back 10 years and um China imports were much, much larger than Brazilian soybean exports. And that's why the US was shipping a lot of beans. So 10 years ago, 1617 marketing year, um, China imports were 93 million, Brazil exports were only 63 million. Uh, they needed to get a lot more beans from the United States. Now you're in a situation where Brazil's gonna export 115 million metric tons of beans this year, China's gonna import only 112. So it's like the the US is uh undoubtedly being kind of uh pushed out of this Chinese soybean thing, which leads me to Trump and G and this meeting that's gonna happen supposedly in mid-May. Is is China really gonna buy 25 million metric tons of US soybeans next year, despite the fact that Brazil's got more than ever to export Chinese demand, maybe falling off a little bit. I don't know. It's uh it's a hot topic and a good question.
SPEAKER_01U.S. corn shipments were near the upper end of pre-report expectations last week. USDA reported that 66 million bushels of corn were inspected for export during the weekending April 16th. The print was up 2.9% compared to the prior week, but down 3.3% versus the same week last year. Soybean shipments were also near the upper end of expectations at 28 million bushels. The print was up 1.3% compared to the previous week and up 34% versus the same week last year. Wheat shipments, they were strong, coming in above expectations at 19 million bushels. The print was up a whopping 90% from the previous week and up one and a half percent versus the same week last year.
SPEAKER_00Here's soybeans. Uh we're we're moving lower as we typically do this time of year. We've actually shipped, I don't know the number in front of me, but we've shipped the vast majority of what we've sold to China. It was like 11 and a half million. Maybe we're above that now. Uh, but we we've shipped the majority of that to China, which is is good. I don't think China's coming for any more old crop US beans. I'd be shocked if they did. I'd be pleasantly surprised if they did put it that way. Um, corn shipments and sales have been very good. We're uh not at a record pace, but pretty damn close to it. And uh just for this week, but we are at a record pace, all things considered. I think USDA might need to come up a little bit with its current marketing, your export projection. Uh cattle were lower yesterday.
SPEAKER_01They sure were. Live cattle were 32 cents to a buck 27 lower. Feeders really took a hit with losses ranging from 245 down to 437. Box beef prices were higher. Choice was up 250 at 383.56, and select was up an impressive$7.01 at$383.61.
SPEAKER_00We didn't even talk about Iran today. Isn't that great?
SPEAKER_01Oh, it's so nice.
SPEAKER_00It's I wish I didn't have to talk about it ever. Um, so the stock market's basically trading record highs this morning. The SP's up 24 points. It's three tenths of a percentage point. Backed off a little bit yesterday, I think. Uh the Dow's up 300, treasuries are flat, crude oil down a buck 25, and the May WTI, which expires today, 88 to 36 last trade. Have a great day, guys. Back on Wednesday.