Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.
Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Trump Says WHO is Gonna Buy US Grains?? + Corn Upside Reversal
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🌱 SOYBEANS & GRAINS RALLY: Soybean futures surged Thursday, with Nov26 closing at $11.57/bu — the highest since early June 📈. Corn and wheat also gained, lifted by soybean oil strength, firmer crude, a weaker dollar, and heat worries across the Corn Belt 🌡️🌽.
💰 FERTILIZER PRICES EASE: Retail fertilizer prices fell for a second straight week as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with urea down 12% and UAN32 down 7% 📉. DAP and potash ticked up slightly, but officials warn it could take months for supply chains to fully normalize ⏳.
📊 USDA REPORTS AHEAD: USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Tuesday morning 🗞️. Traders expect lower corn acreage, higher soybean acreage, steady wheat acreage, and higher year-over-year stocks across the board 🌾.
🌧️ DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE: Rain improved conditions in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and northwest Iowa, dropping Corn Belt drought coverage to just 13% (from 36% earlier this year) ☔. The High Plains saw some relief too, but widespread dryness still grips much of the region 🏜️.
🇮🇷 IRAN-US TENSIONS: Iran is pushing back on Trump's claim that unfrozen funds will be used to buy US ag goods, with the White House holding firm on its conditions 🚫. Tensions flared further after Iran allegedly attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about the fragile US-Iran agreement ⚠️.
🚢 EXPORT SALES MIXED: Corn export sales dropped sharply last week, down 36% from the prior week, with Mexico the top buyer 📦. Soybean sales jumped 50% above the four-week average on strong "unknown destination" demand, while wheat sales also rose nicely to start the new marketing year 🌍.
⚖️ BAYER WINS BIG AT SCOTUS: The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that Bayer can't be sued under state law for not putting a cancer warning on Roundup/glyphosate 🛡️. The decision could wipe out thousands of pending lawsuits and sent Bayer shares soaring as much as 20% 🚀.
Trump Grain Comments
SPEAKER_02Good morning, guys. It's Friday, June 26th, 5 24 a.m. Central Time. Grain Markets a little bit lower this morning. Uh welcome back to Green Markets and Other Stuff. My name is Joe. Mackenzie Johnston is my co-host. Mackenzie, say good morning to the people.
SPEAKER_00Good morning, everybody.
SPEAKER_02Brian Split is here. Brian, how are you doing this morning? Doing good, Joe. How are you? I'm great. We're going to start with the video clip and then we're going to discuss. This is the president at the Rose Garden talking to farmers yesterday.
SPEAKER_01They're having a hard time with food, and we're going to be taking some of their money and we'll spend it, and we're going to be buying wheat, soybeans, and corn, a lot of it. And that process is going to be starting pretty soon.
SPEAKER_02What am I supposed to make of that? We're going to be buying wheat, soybeans, and corn. Who who is we? Is it we on behalf of Iran?
SPEAKER_03Is that what he's saying? Uh it sounds like the um funds that would be unfrozen would be used uh uh uh at our uh uh discretion to buy U.S. grain for Iran. That's apparently what he's saying. I know um Iran does purchase about 12 million tons of corn a year, so they are a uh a large buyer. I think uh that that there is potential there that if we have the discretion to spend their money that that that might be an outcome, but uh I don't know. Uh just with a lot of the uh policy and the ongoing of who's gonna buy what, it's it's uh not very concrete. Okay, Mackenzie.
SPEAKER_02So Iran then responded.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and Iran's parliament speaker dismissed Trump's claim that the unfrozen uh funds would be used to buy U.S. agricultural goods to feed Iran's population. So in response, the White House said no frozen assets would be released unless Iran uh meets the conditions outlined in last week's memorandum of understanding. Iran officials have insisted that any agricultural imports uh will be based on price and quality, not conditions set by the U.S. And then also a little uh a little bit more, Iran attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
SPEAKER_02I think the big thing was the the last part, Brian, that there was an attack and crude rallied yesterday, but it's right back down this morning along with the grain markets. So what's it still seems kind of like a bearish input to me. I mean, crude's crude's basically back to where it was pre-conflict for the most part. Uh I'm not gonna say it's bearish, but it's not bullish anymore.
SPEAKER_03Um, no, it's uh definitely reset some valuations in the energy market. And and we discussed that uh at length on the premium video on Wednesday about heating oil and that's the proxy for diesel fuel. We have come down to some pretty major support levels where I could see the market trying to slow down the descent a little bit. Um, but uh the
Corn Upside Reversal, Charts
SPEAKER_03uh the story of Iran and and uh energy values being supportive to grains, that that story's definitely run its course for now. Let's go to grain price action.
SPEAKER_00Soybean futures were sharply higher yesterday with the November 26th contract gaining 22 cents to close at 1157 per bushel, its highest settlement since early June. The rally was fueled by strength in soybean oil, firmer crude oil prices, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Weather concerns also provided support as portions of the corn belt are expected to receive excessive heat next week. Corn futures benefited from the same supportive factors with the December 26th contract climbing roughly eight cents to close at 443 per bushel. Wheat futures also finished the day in positive territory.
SPEAKER_02We're gonna get to weather, among other things, in a minute here. Here's a dece corn chart, Brian. We did have an upside reversal on Thursday. This was not a key reversal because the open was not below the prior day's close. However, that's a good looking bar for one day.
SPEAKER_03It is a good looking bar. It was a definitely an engulfing candle. It was an outside reversal to your point. Yes, it was not a key reversal because we didn't open below Wednesday's low. We did close above Wednesday's high. And um, I think if we were to maybe adjust that downtrend a little bit to uh the next peak, uh and then just the sharp down angle that we've had. Uh, we did close above that. We closed above the 10-day moving average yesterday as well. Um, so I think for a little bit of back and fill today, um, we would like to see them support uh and be a buyer against Wednesday's high in December corn, which was 440, and uh continue to close above the 10-day moving average. That might be a signal short term that the funds are uh done uh pressing it. And um interestingly, a 50% retracement of the whole break takes you right back to that April low at 469 quarter.
SPEAKER_02Um, I wrote something about July basis contracts here, and I think that once those are out of the way, the market oftentimes you'll you'll see kind of like a bounce. And the the drop dead time frame for that would be I think like close of business Monday. But a lot of the grain buyers have already forced uh those contracts to be priced to roll. You think that has something to do with it? Absolutely.
SPEAKER_03Uh we have seen uh at least short-term lows. They may not be the low, but we've seen short-term lows made over the years, numerous periods uh during delivery or into delivery. So a lot of times when we send tend to bottom in August, it's as that September contract is going through delivery. That's that last bit of old crop bushels getting purged. Uh, you can very well see that uh on the July contract. And we often see some winter lows being made as the March contract goes into delivery. So this is definitely a period where once we clean that selling up uh and that and the natural sellers remove from the market, then uh you tend to get some bounces.
SPEAKER_02In addition, we've got a big report next week. We're gonna talk about it in a second, but pre-report position squaring, could that also be a uh factor here?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, absolutely. We're we're getting to the end of the quarter as well. Um, so if anybody got a little over their skis, if there's new some adjustments they need to be made into the end of the quarter, then uh that can happen as well. And and we do have the the report on Tuesday. Uh that's stocks, it's acres. So there's some definitely some moving parts on that report. And uh pre-report positioning is is definitely part of the uh the ongoing uh narrative here over the next couple days going into the report.
SPEAKER_02Here's no soybeans. Uh also a very good day outside up day yesterday. Uh you got that trend line that uh is is pretty obvious. It's about 1172 this morning.
SPEAKER_03What are your thoughts here? Uh very similar. It was not a uh uh new contract low being made yesterday, but it that low at 1130 was uh a reversal off of major support. So if we go back to the high that was made in November uh and in December of 2025, it was back at that 1130 zone. So uh, you know, we kind of used that as a springboard for a reversal higher yesterday, and much the same as corn, what we would like to see today is the buyers step in at Wednesday's highs of 1146 and support it there. And so if we could see, you know, the pullback overnight's not a concern. It's how do we finish the week? And if we can finish the week uh seeing a little pullback early in the day resolve itself into buying late in the session, then that's ultimately what we want to see.
SPEAKER_02Uh, we're also gonna talk about export sales in a second, of course. But I heard chatter that there's more Chinese business and China's gonna buy more uh new crop soybeans from the U.S., I would imagine.
SPEAKER_03Uh well, they're gonna have to if they're gonna meet the uh the 25 million tonight. They don't have to uh well right if they're going to meet the 25 million ton uh number, they're gonna have to start buying beans at some point. We saw a little bit of light buying last week, and that was a talk yesterday that they were sniffing around for more soybeans for uh for fall delivery. So uh that with the the bounce of crude oil and and uh uh the the talk of of what weather might look like in July was was uh all contributing to yesterday's buying. Here's HRW wheat.
SPEAKER_02Um the HRW wheat crop, Ryan, is projected to be down 38% in the United States this year. Yet the market appears to have discounted that last month and has really fallen apart since. What are your thoughts here?
SPEAKER_03Um, you know, part of the uh rally was obviously the reduction in in the crop size of the HRW. Um, but uh as we were making those highs, a lot of the uh talk about, you know, how are we looking globally and still big picture globally? We have enough wheat. So I think we had kind of the the market succumb to the seasonalities of what was going on, right? Uh the the whole ag market uh had made some highs in May, so corn, soybeans, and wheat. Uh and then you've got harvest pressure that eventually is part of the uh the uh mechanism of the downturn. So we've we've had a uh a structural high across all of ag uh and and this market definitely uh took a lot off in a short period of time. And generally the funds don't like to stick around long wheat uh as a a position that they sit in for a long time. Uh, you know, those long wheat positions generally are pretty short-lived. And so we definitely had uh a sharp spike, but uh, you know, as as the market came down across the board, uh the harvest pressure I think accelerated some of the selling in the wheat market. Why is spring wheat the worst actor here? Um, there's there's probably a uh uh, you know, what was the job of the market for spring wheat as we had everything else going up? And we were getting information that uh, you know, winter wheat acres were down, then we have, okay, well, the hard red wheat crop itself is not doing well and yields are going to be down. And I think part of that move that we had uh from April into May was in an effort to uh to try to garner some additional spring wheat acres because you can't put more winter wheat in the ground. Um so it'll be interesting to see if uh not only the the culmination of the general ag top in in the month of May, plus uh maybe a component
Fertilizer Prices Drop
SPEAKER_03of of seeing some additional spring wheat acres might be what's pressuring that contract the most. Plus, we've got a good looking spring wheat crop. Let's go to fertilizer.
SPEAKER_00Fertilizer prices continue to ease as the Strait of Hormuz reopens. As of the third week of June, retail fertilizer prices have declined for two consecutive weeks, with six of the eight major fertilizers costing less than a month ago. Urea led the declines, falling 12%, while UAN 32 dropped 7%. DAP and potash were the only fertilizers to post slight price increases. The reopening of the strait has improved the outlook for global fertilizer supplies. However, industry officials say it could take several months for supply chains and prices to fully recover.
SPEAKER_02Well, so the prices at the Gulf at least have fallen apart. Um, urea at the Gulf was 702 a ton at its peak in April, and now we're down to 393. So we've lost 44%. So massive decline if you're a you know wholesale wholesale buyer at the Gulf. But retail is gonna take a while. We're still well above 700 um in terms of of retail urea nationally, according to DTN. This is supposed to come down uh eventually, right, Brian?
SPEAKER_03Uh, you know, uh eventually, but boy, it just always seems that uh when uh the prices should be coming down, they just don't come down quite as fast as uh as what you'd like. And and you see that, you know, in in the energy market as well. Uh crude oil comes down quite a bit, the price of Arbob comes down, uh heating oil comes down yet. The the price at the pump, it comes down, but just not as fast as the futures too, that's for sure.
SPEAKER_02Well, hopefully by the time it's it's uh you know fall application time frame, we we are back down
USDA Report Preview
SPEAKER_02to more reasonable price levels and we can make 2027 uh margins for corn in particular look a little bit better. Uh we've got a USDA report on Tuesday next week.
SPEAKER_00We sure do. USDA will release its planted acreage and quarterly grain stocks report on Tuesday morning. Traders expect U.S. corn acreage will decline compared to March intentions. Well, soybean acreage is expected to exceed March estimates. Uh U.S. wheat acreage is projected to remain mostly unchanged. June 1st stocks of corn are forecast to increase by roughly 16% compared to last year. While soybeans are slated to rise about 4% year over year, wheat stocks are expected to increase 9% versus last year.
SPEAKER_02Do you have a hot take on the acreage numbers, Brian? Any predictions, anything you think that is wrong with the average trade guess?
SPEAKER_03Um, you know, our our internal number was right around the average guess, was slightly lower than that number. Uh that's boring, bro. I know, and but uh we just that's the number that we came up with, and and uh we didn't know what everyone else's guesses were gonna be, but um we were uh really looking all along over the last couple months, thinking that uh we would have seen a slight reduction in corn acres uh and an increase in soybean acres. And I think there's some uh you know different pockets where that happened geographically, and then I think there's also uh uh certain segments of the ag economy where there was maybe a little bit more aggressive shift to soybeans. I think there's a lot of maybe younger producers that don't have the cash flow as the more well-established producer that don't own the land, uh, but maybe didn't have their fertilizer locked in, um, and they were a little bit more susceptible to the increase in fertilizer values. So some of my younger guys that I talked to did go heavier on the soybeans. Uh and again, there's maybe some geographic areas that went heavier in soybeans. So I I think that's gonna be the um you know the the general story there. But the stocks are the ones where you know you get uh uh an increase or a decrease in stocks. Those are real bushels right here, right now, that either you know were found or or uh are less than expected. So that's a very immediate impact to the balance sheet if there's a surprise on stocks.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, either one of these numbers could be a big time market mover. Uh my personal thought on acres, just for fun, I don't advise marketing recs or anything based on my opinion of acres. I think the March corn acreage number was too low. And I think that if my personal thought is that if there's a surprise, it may be to the upside in corn acres. Like they might have been too low to start, and it might be it might be 96 and a half, Brian. That's what I think it might be.
SPEAKER_03I don't know. I hold on to that. I know we were talking about that back in January about how many corn acres were gonna still go in because of ECO and the crops uh subsidies, and that's still issues, yeah. Uh correct. Um, you know, so that is uh definitely a possibility. However, uh last year was a very heavy corn year, yeah. And uh generally there is a uh uh a decent shift year to year when you see such a large uh amount of corn acres planted last year. So I'm I would say that uh yes, it's a possibility, and and these quarterly reports are known for surprises. So uh if if there's a single number that is changing your whole marketing plan, you're
US Drought Monitor, Weather, Heat
SPEAKER_03you're doing it wrong, though, I think is the way to look at it. That is correct.
SPEAKER_02And I I hope this is a bullish report all around. I'd love to see it. Uh let's go to the drought monitor and weather.
SPEAKER_00So much of the corn belt received rainfall last week, improving drought conditions across Kentucky, northern Illinois, and northwest Iowa. Drier weather caused conditions to slightly worsen in southwest and southeast Minnesota. In the high plains, rainfall across central Nebraska and portions of western and central Kansas brought some relief. However, widespread dryness continues to plague the majority of the region. When we look at the percentage of U.S. areas experiencing drought, corn country currently stands at 22%, soybeans also 22%, winter wheat 57%, spring wheat 25%, and cattle country 50%.
SPEAKER_02There are some areas across the corn belt that can be marked as drought areas. The the bigger, biggest problem is like Nebraska, parts of South Dakota, maybe. Um here's a good graphic from our friends at Crop Profit. And I think this kind of uh explains to some extent what's going on in the corn market over the last 30 days with regard to uh corn production in the United States. We've ran a moisture surplus uh three-quarters of an inch above normal on average across U.S. corn areas, and rain makes grain, right, Brian?
SPEAKER_03That is a saying for a reason. And uh yes, we've had a very uh wet June, and uh that has been part of the uh the the removal of evaluations from the highs. Uh we we started the month of June with a pretty aggressive uh week lower uh that first week of June in corn was was pretty brutal. And uh I I definitely think that the amount of rain uh and the coverage of rain that we've had across the Midwest has been part of that story.
SPEAKER_02I'm not making any sort of crop prediction here. Like I think when I when I say things like this, rain makes grain, and here's the map, people think like, oh, Joe thinks it's a record crop. I don't know what the crop is. I mean, there were definitely some problem areas, and it it could turn into something well different than what the market is telling us it is right now at the end of the day. It's just when you have a lot of rain this time of year, no matter what the crop ultimately ends up being, it's gonna be tough to rally.
SPEAKER_03It it is. And um, I think the problems with the crop are things that um the market won't latch on to immediately, right? If there's hot and dry and it's there for a long period of time, the market's gonna react to that and it's gonna do it aggressively. Where, you know, you could find some nuances where you look at crop conditions, for example, week to week, and you could say, okay, well, some of these top-producing states are going backwards, but yet the national average uh was unchanged week over week. And, you know, where we are versus the five-year average is still good. So uh maybe some of this too wet is gonna have an impact longer term. And there's definitely a lot of producers that have expressed that concern that the top end of their yield potential has been removed. Uh, but the focus as it's raining is not, you know, who is is is losing production. There's a lot of areas that are gaining production because of that.
SPEAKER_02I could see um some sort of early harvest low this year, you know, July, August, getting the crop tour season, you know, people start getting out in the fields and figuring out what's there. And it's uh it's certainly possible. This is what the forecast looks like for the next seven days, haves and have nots in terms of rainfall. Um, there's some additional rain that's added in some of those drier areas during the eight to 10 day period. To quantify this based on Euromodel data, according to our friends at Crop Profit, U.S. corn areas are still going to see 93% of normal rainfall over the next seven days. The temperatures, though, could be a problem. I don't know. I've heard I'm hearing differing things. You guys tell me what you think in the comments. But uh U.S. corn areas expected to run 4.1 degrees above normal on average over the next seven days, eight to fourteen day period, 84% of normal rainfall for U.S. corn areas expected, and temperatures expected to be even warmer, uh, 5.6 degrees above normal on average. So uh what have you heard about the heat, Ryan, in particular? What are people saying?
SPEAKER_03There's definitely some areas that could use some heat. Um, you know, and this goes on with the nuance of well, if you've been very dry, um, yeah, you obviously would like some moisture and you'd really don't want the heat to crank up. But I think some areas that uh, you know, when you think about uh Illinois and Indiana and Ohio, and those are when you look at the drought monitor, there's no color there, it's just white. Um, and and those are areas that have gotten a pretty uh solid amount of precip that could probably use some some heat units and a little bit of a period of dry. So there's always that balance. Now you get dry for two weeks and you're gonna be asking for a rain again. So um, you know, if that hot and dry uh type of bias sticks around as we get uh into mid-July, and and I think coming out of this particular weekend and how that extended forecast looks is gonna be pretty important to the to the market, uh,
Export Sales, China Tracker
SPEAKER_03especially you know, if we get a uh a ho-hum type of a report next Tuesday, weather's gonna be really the main driver. Let's go to export sales.
SPEAKER_00U.S. corn export sales declined last week for the weekending June 18th. Net corn sales were reported at 29 million bushels. The print was down 36% from the previous week and down 27% from the prior four-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer for the week. Net soybean sales were near the upper end of pre-report expectations at 17 million bushels. The print was up 7% from the previous week and up 50% from the prior four-week average. Unknown destinations was the largest buyer for the week. And then wheat sales were near the upper end of expectations at 19 million bushels. The print was up 26% from the previous week, with Mexico as the largest buyer.
SPEAKER_02Okay, so corn export sales for the current marketing year are the best ever on record of all time. Brian, I have a question for you. This this is old news. Um, when you look at the new crop balance sheet, so USDA's got a record number pencil in for current marketing year, 3.3 billion bushels. For new crop, they've got a reduction penciled in, 3.15. That's still a very strong number. Is that a fair number to work with? I know it's very early. We don't know much about new crop corn export sales.
SPEAKER_03Um, I do think it's fair. And I I think the um, you know, the lower export number is mainly a product of a lower production number year to year. So um, you know, we're gonna have to see a strong pace continue. And with uh corn priced where it is, I don't see a reason for exports to necessarily slow down. So part of that is is yes, the crop will be smaller, but uh with with prices where they are, uh, if exports don't slow down because of price, then at some point down the road, we might be looking at a larger export number uh on the balance sheet. But there's a lot of time uh for on the calendar to elapse before we start talking about that.
SPEAKER_02I ask because I've heard a lot of people argue that number, and I'm like, what are you arguing? It's way too early to even have a strong opinion on it, I think. You know?
SPEAKER_03Um yeah, USGA just gave us that number about a month and a half ago. That's their very first assessment of new crop exports. So it's way too early. Yeah, it's way too early to start uh poo-pooing that number.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, okay. Uh soybean export sales, worst of the last 10 years because of the trade war with China, because China bought less than half of what they would normally buy. Here's an update on China's soybean purchases out of the United States. They basically hit the old crop uh target that the White House laid out, 12 million metric tons. And we're almost up to 1%, Brian, with regard to uh new crop soybean export sales to China. Does does this make you feel optimistic?
SPEAKER_03Uh it does. And and generally, the time of year that China will uh commence the buying program is probably, you know, 30 to 45 days in that in that window. Uh we've seen numerous times over the years, and and they used to have those signing ceremonies uh, you know, back in the day where they'd come in August and and have a whole ceremony and then they'd buy beans, right? Um, and so I do think that the timing of them looking uh more seriously at uh bigger, uh bigger volume agricultural purposes, uh purchases is around the corner. I think they're coming. I think they're gonna buy corn too. You think they're gonna buy corn? I do. Uh again, if they're gonna uh if there's any accuracy to an additional 17 million uh or billion dollars worth of agricultural products being bought by China on top of the soybean
SCOTUS Roundup Ruling
SPEAKER_03purchases, I don't see a world where that doesn't include corn and sorghum and and some other uh products as well. It's gotta include corn.
SPEAKER_02Okay, Supreme Court decision yesterday.
SPEAKER_00Yep, and a seven to two ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court found that Bayer cannot be sued under state law for failing to include a cancer warning on its weed killer roundup or its chemical glyphosate. The court ruled that because the EPA approved Roundups label without requiring a cancer warning, Bayer cannot be sued under state law for failing to include one. Bayer has already spent more than $10 billion defending and settling Roundup lawsuits. Shares of the company jumped as much as 20% following the decision.
SPEAKER_02Look at this up 24% this week if you're a Bayer stock owner or shareholder. Uh that's a pretty good looking chart. Yeah, I don't care. You don't care? I don't care. The people who use the stuff care. So we figured we'd throw it in today. Uh McKenzie, what are cattle yesterday?
SPEAKER_00Uh cattle futures were mostly higher yesterday. Live cattle were 10 cents lower to a buck 40 higher. Feeder saw gains ranging from 37 cents up to 85 cents.
SPEAKER_02Quick cattle market thoughts, Brian.
SPEAKER_03Um, cattle market, uh, you know, right now we're attached to the the cash market because June is going to be going off the board. Um, once we get that resolved and June expires, then the August contract is going to be the lead element. Uh, however, we're not going to be really tied to the cash until uh two months down the road. And so the period of July last year, um, the fund market, the funds were very uh uh plain about what their intention was. They started buying cattle right at the beginning of the quarter, and uh it was rather aggressive. There was multiple days in a row. So I think we're gonna have a pretty good idea of what the fund manager wants to do with the cattle market as we get to let's just say July 7th, 8th uh timeframe, uh out of the 4th of July holiday, we'll probably have already a little bit of a direction there. But um I there I think when you get out of the uh the cash market out of the way, we do become a little bit more susceptible to some of the outside market macroeconomic stuff going on. So if there's a large move in the equity trade, that might have uh some some uh uh involvement in the cattle market. Uh but uh I I you know again, the the uh the fundamental story and the inventory story, uh, that is has not changed. We still have a uh friendly big picture setup there. Uh, but uh again, I I'm more concerned about how the equity market in the next couple months is gonna influence cattle.
SPEAKER_02Stock markets off a little bit this morning. The SP is down about half a percentage point. Crude oil is now down two dollars and forty cents in the August WTI at 69.53. Guys, have a wonderful weekend. Brian, thanks for joining us back on Monday.