Hello and welcome to the property and lending show
Your host as always - KM
I will be starting a new segment once a month, where I unpack the latest CoreLogic monthly index report and go through what they have to say
These episodes will be pretty short and sharp, straight to the point.
Let us know your thoughts as always
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Hello and welcome to the Property and Lending Show. The show where we talk about all the latest trends and news in the real estate market. I'm your host Km, and this is a new segment which I'm going to start running once a month where we go through the monthly call logic had Donnie Home Value Index. So today I'm just running it by myself in the future fairy and Mark may join maybe not these episodes are going to be very short just five minute clips and it's just really we're just going to be running through that CoreLogic report that gets released once a month before we dive into the latest index. Let's really first understand what the CoreLogic hadonic Home Value Index is. So the CoreLogic index is a leading indicator of the Australian property market. It provides an estimate of the overall value of the residential real estate market by combining data from sales, transactions, valuations and other factors. So in January, the Home Value Index or the HBI, which you may hear me refer to this as during this episode and future episodes fell by a third 1%. But there is some good news to be found in this data. The rate of decline has slowed slightly with the smallest month on month decline since June of last year. This reduction is a rate of decline sorry. This reduction in the rate of decline was seen in most capital cities except for Adam laden Perth where housing values have held up much better since interest rates began rising in May. According to Tim Lawless, corlogic's research director, there are signs that the momentum of the housing downturn has eased. The quarterly trend in housing values is clearly pointing to a reduction in the pace of decline across most regions, Lawless said. However, national housing values are still falling quite rapidly compared to previous downturns in January. Sydney's median dwelling value dropped below$1 million for the first time since March 2021 falling by -1.2% in January and improvement on December's -1.4% decline the most notable or the most noticeable easing in values value Fours can be seen across the premium end of the housing market, where the country's most expensive properties have led both the recent upswing as well as the current downturn across the combined capitals. The rolling quarterly rate of decline in the Upper Quartile Values has improved from a Recent Low of -6.1% over September 22 quarter to -4% over the three months to January. So that's something that I've spoken about in quite a lot of podcast episodes is what these Core logic data numbers or the numbers that you hear in the news, they are without context. They are very broad very general Sydney Melbourne Brisbane which doesn't really mean much when you really delve into it, to be honest. Because as this statement is saying here from Cologic's own report, they're saying most of the easing and values is coming from the premium end of the housing markets and the opposite, when there is an upswing, it comes from that spot as well. So we're talking in Sydney, your walk lose point, pipe up, Bondi. These really expensive areas, when they hit, when they go down, they really push all the numbers down. When they go up, they really push all the numbers up. But kind of without context doesn't really mean too much because you really got to break it down. You've heard Mercedes before, markets with your markets, with your markets. Within Sydney, there are multiple markets and the big top premium areas, when they drop, they really push all the numbers with them. Mr Lawless stressed the importance of understanding this downturn in context. Record declines in home values follow a record upswing both in magnitude and speed. The national HBR was up a stunning 28.6% in the space of just 19 months. So despite the declines, every capital city is still recording home values above pre pandemic levels, with Melbourne Zenix the only one needing to fall off over 0.4% before equaling the March 2020 reading. While the trend towards improving conditions is not evident in all cities, it is most apparent in cities that touch housing market. So, again, we see it's not all doom and gloom, right? We are declining. We are in a declining market at the moment, but still above pre pandemic levels because we had such a huge upswing during about 1819 months of 28.6%. That's across pretty much the entire country. So people are not losing money at the moment. People are still ahead of where they were before the pandemic. One interesting trend to watch for is the difference between regional and capital city markets. Regional housing values have held up much better than capital city markets, even though they have also experienced a milder rate of decline. With more Australians willing to base themselves outside of the capital cities and remote working remaining a viable option across some sectors of the labor force, it is unlikely we'll see a mass exercise from regional markets. Markets. Finally, low advertised supply remains a feature of the housing market, with the flow of new listings holding well below average for this time of the year. This reflects an ongoing reluctance from prospective vendors to test the market. This trend of lower than normal levels of new listings has been persistent through spring and early summer and looks to continue throughout 2023. And we are seeing that ourselves on the floor every day when we're trying to purchase properties. There is very little supply out there, which means the markets are holding stable or with slight declines. And we're not getting those mass 1020 30, 40% declines that everyone in the news kind of in the wider media discusses about markets crashing and all that stuff. There is such little supply that even if there is a little bit of demand, it is going to hold pretty stable. So that's it for today's Housing Market update. Thank you so much for listening. Let us know if you like this kind of style episode only once for a few minutes. We'll do it once a month to go through this report and yeah, let us know your thoughts and if you like it, we'll keep doing it. If you don't, we'll stop. We are for the people. Thank you for listening. Tuning in next time for more news and analysis on the housing market. Tell a friend to listen to the podcast. If everyone just tells one more person, we will grow this podcast dramatically and very quickly because we are on between five and 10,000 downloads and five to 10,000 listeners. So if everyone just tells one or two people, we are going to blow this thing up. Also follow us on social media, instagram, LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok we are everywhere. Give us a follow so you can find we do cut up these episodes as well into Snippets so you can find these on our socials as well. Thanks for listening. Muchly appreciate it. Have a good week. Cheers you.