The NZ Property Market Podcast
Brought to you by Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL
This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
The NZ Property Market Podcast
Pain and gain metrics and the case against a July OCR hike
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The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live, revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector.
This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the stark reality of the 4-year median hold period for loss-makers compared to the 10-year safety net for profitable sales. We also look at the April Selected Price Indexes data, discuss Nick’s onstage debate with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr regarding the necessity of a July OCR hike, and track the quiet turnaround in net migration figures.
This week we discuss:
- Q1 Pain and Gain Report: Why gross profits have fallen from a peak of $440,000 down to a median of $285,000.
- The hold period reality: The mathematical proof that buying at the 2021 peak and selling in 2026 guarantees a tough result.
- Apartment vulnerability: Why 41% of apartments resold at a loss during the quarter.
- April price indexes: Understanding why domestic price segments are softening even as diesel and petrol spike.
- The July OCR debate: Nick outlines the demand destruction argument that suggests the RBNZ should hold fire.
- Migration & rents: Net migration climbs back to almost 25,000, adding steady structural demand to a highly volatile rental market.
- Investor anxiety: Anecdotal feedback from Auckland on interest deductibility and long-term cash flow fears.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com
This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
