The NZ Property Market Podcast
Brought to you by Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL
This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
The NZ Property Market Podcast
The Mortgage Repricing Wall and the 90,000 Sales Floor
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The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates. Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of falling rates straight into a rising rate wall.
This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse the macroeconomic consequences of this lag in monetary policy. We break down the newly updated Cotality Sales Volume Forecast Model, which officially strips 10,000 transactions out of our original 2026 projections.
Plus, we dissect the internal vs. external board divide at the RBNZ, unpack the Government's council "consent bonus" budget initiative, and preview Thursday's upcoming May Home Value Index (HVI) results.
This week we discuss:
- The Repricing Shock: Why 31% of fixed debt and 10% of floating debt are running directly into higher rates over the next six months.
- The 2-Year Fix Pivot: Why the mathematical reality of moving from a short-term fix to a 2-year runway means a 0.3% to 0.4% immediate lift in debt-servicing costs.
- Slashing the 2026 Model: Recalibrating the official housing metrics down to a flat 90,000 transaction ceiling for this year, with a potential slide below 90k in 2027.
- The Internal vs. External Divide: Analysing Cam Bagrie’s take on why external MPC members are voting for rate hikes while internal RBNZ staff cling to optimistic GDP models.
- April Mortgage Lending Slowdown: Dissecting the $8 billion lending block and why bank switching and aggressive cashback windows are shutting.
- Council "Consent Bonuses": Reviewing the Government’s infrastructure financial incentives for councils hitting high density targets.
Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com
This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
