Behind the Breakthrough

Panel: COVID-19's Impact on Housing & the Economy w/ Dr. Michael Roizen, MD

March 24, 2020 Industry Syndicate Episode 8
Behind the Breakthrough
Panel: COVID-19's Impact on Housing & the Economy w/ Dr. Michael Roizen, MD
Chapters
Behind the Breakthrough
Panel: COVID-19's Impact on Housing & the Economy w/ Dr. Michael Roizen, MD
Mar 24, 2020 Episode 8
Industry Syndicate

This week we're doing something a little different. Megan oversaw a panel discussion with our industry's best and brightest economic minds, and the Director of THE Cleveland Clinic, Dr. Mike Roizen earlier this week. We thought it's much more important for you all to hear it this week, and we'll get back to our normal interviews again next week. 

With our world changing at such an incredibly fast rate, it's imperative that we approach each day with the proper perspective. For this, we wanted to hear from THE BEST in the field of medicine, and the best minds and greatest thinkers in housing. 

Join host Megan Anderson and these mortgage and real estate industry leaders for a special update on the financial markets and COVID-19's unprecedented impact on it.

  • Barry Habib, MBS Highway
  • Frank Garay & Brian Stevens, National Real Estate Post
  • Ryan Hills, The REsource.TV
  • Clayton Collins, HousingWire
  • Andrew Berman, Mortgage News Network
  • PLUS Dr. Mike Roizen, Director of the Cleveland Clinic

Stay safe out there everyone. Take care of yourself, your family, your community, as well as your business!

*Behind the Breakthrough is an Industry Syndicate Original podcast

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Want more of the best podcasts for Real Estate Agents and Mortgage Loan Officers?

Download the new Industry Syndicate mobile app:
iPhone: http://bit.ly/SyndicateApple
Android: http://bit.ly/SyndicateGoogle

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Connect w/ Megan Anderson on social media:
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 Follow the Industry Syndicate on social media:
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ⓒ 2020 Industry Syndicate podcast network

Show Notes Transcript

This week we're doing something a little different. Megan oversaw a panel discussion with our industry's best and brightest economic minds, and the Director of THE Cleveland Clinic, Dr. Mike Roizen earlier this week. We thought it's much more important for you all to hear it this week, and we'll get back to our normal interviews again next week. 

With our world changing at such an incredibly fast rate, it's imperative that we approach each day with the proper perspective. For this, we wanted to hear from THE BEST in the field of medicine, and the best minds and greatest thinkers in housing. 

Join host Megan Anderson and these mortgage and real estate industry leaders for a special update on the financial markets and COVID-19's unprecedented impact on it.

  • Barry Habib, MBS Highway
  • Frank Garay & Brian Stevens, National Real Estate Post
  • Ryan Hills, The REsource.TV
  • Clayton Collins, HousingWire
  • Andrew Berman, Mortgage News Network
  • PLUS Dr. Mike Roizen, Director of the Cleveland Clinic

Stay safe out there everyone. Take care of yourself, your family, your community, as well as your business!

*Behind the Breakthrough is an Industry Syndicate Original podcast

--
Want more of the best podcasts for Real Estate Agents and Mortgage Loan Officers?

Download the new Industry Syndicate mobile app:
iPhone: http://bit.ly/SyndicateApple
Android: http://bit.ly/SyndicateGoogle

--
Connect w/ Megan Anderson on social media:
Instagram
Facebook
LinkedIn 

--
 Follow the Industry Syndicate on social media:
 Instagram
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn

ⓒ 2020 Industry Syndicate podcast network

spk_1:   0:03
welcome to behind the breakthrough with your host, Megan Anderson, the podcast where we tell the stories of today's leaders before they were leaders. The struggles doubts, fears and insecurities they had to overcome in order to reach their current level of success. Let's go ahead. Let's break through. Behind The breakthrough is an industry syndicate. Original podcast industry syndicate is the first podcast network for the real estate in mortgage industry. Go get the completely free industry syndicate podcast app right now from the APP Store or Google play, Welcome to another episode of Behind the Breakthrough. I'm your host, Megan Anderson, and this week is a really special week. We're gonna be talking about everything you need to know about Corona virus when it comes to your health and also how it is affecting the housing market. This is a Facebook live we did earlier this week that I wanted to make sure everyone that is a podcast listener listens to. We have special guests on this break. Ray Brian Stevens, Clayton Collins, Ryan Hill, Andrew Berman Berry hubby on and a very special guest, an expert, the head of the Cleveland Clinic, Dr Michael Rosen. Again, you do not want to, Mrs. We dive into everything that you need to know supplements that you can take to help you with this. What to eat, what not to eat and how this is all affecting the housing market. Let's go ahead and let's break through.

spk_0:   2:04
Well, hello, everyone. We are so glad to have you on here. Um, I am thrilled today that we're bringing you this Facebook live with this very, very important breakdown of of what we're seeing with the Corona virus. Questions that you might have certainly questions that we have before this even started with panel that you see of leaders within the industry were kind of asking the famous micro rise and Dr Migros and some of these things more on a personal level. And and Mike was giving us some amazing information that you just can't get. So I think this is gonna be an incredible call. And then once mike gives us some information, we will then try to break it down between all of us on on this call to tell you what we think this means for housing. What this means for interest rates. What this means for the stock market what it means for the overall economy and try to explain to you why you're seeing some of the things you're seeing. The Fed cuts, rates the point. Mortgage rates go up a point. We will break all of that down and more. First Ah, my teammate Meghan Anderson, who is? Ah, a real trouper. Meghan. Dr. Mike, you might have to talk to Megan after the show. Maybe kind of find out. Megan's been under the weather. We don't know she hasn't taken a test, but

spk_1:   3:22
no, it's hard to get testing. It's crazy. Which is one of the things that I really want to ask Mike about on this call as well. But I'm coming in from the sick person's perspective, and I'm happy to be here.

spk_0:   3:35
Yes, so she could might be ableto give us some chronology on what to expect, Dr. Mike and we have on the call with us. You know, all dear friends and leaders in the industry we see there, Brian Stevens and somewhere behind him is Frank. A race is going to be going to be showing up a CZ. Well, you've got Andrew Berman is on the call. You've got Ryan. Stacy Hills. There's Frank. You've got Clayton Collins. But the star of this show today is someone you've heard the name mentioned his name many times. And ah, I say this to Dr Mike Rise and is that I consider him a gift to the world. He is certainly a someone to me. Who Ah, who was a gift to me personally, I am so lucky and blessed Mike to call you my friend. His resume is extensive. You've seen him do work with Dr Oz. He is the foremost authority on longevity. And maybe we'll get some tips on longevity from Dr Michael what he sees. But, uh, he is a sigh opposite gets at the Cleveland Clinic and on the cutting edge. And, uh, just in absolute prints of a human being. So thank you for joining us, Dr Mae.

spk_2:   4:46
Thank you. I feel the lucky one to know you bury so thank you.

spk_0:   4:51
Thank you, brother. Thank you. So, Doc, Well worried about this Corona virus? You know, it shut down the economy. And while that presents a whole host of problems, please help us understand from a personal level for all of us. How worried should we be? And what can we best do to help prevented and help us deal with it and cope with it if we come into contact with

spk_2:   5:16
it? Well, the phrase was, if you don't have a chronic disease, you're not immuno compromised. Meaning taking things that suppress your immune system. You're you don't have diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, cancer, known diseases, um, arthritis. Then you're probably not at a great risk. The problem with that is that now those under 40 are If you look in the Ford or videos or partying on the beach, they're actually getting fairly sick and going in the i C u um and we're losing some of them. So in fact, the point is you want social distancing for all of us. Now, if you have a plaque, the thing that kills people with the with the usual fool, if they have heart disease, stroke there over the age of 50 is in fact you break these plaques off when you get severe fu. So if you get the wonderful thing about the flu shot, influence and be shot, which we get is a standard track is that if you get 10 years in a row from 50 to 60. The data are you decrease your risk of hospitalization by 50% over that 10 year period, mainly from heart attacks, and decrease your risk of a heart attack killing you by 25%. So the real benefit of getting the flu suppressed by vaccines is you don't have a large inflammatory response which causes plaques to break off. It also causes over the long term you two have us a damage to your lung, which allows the secondary pneumonias and the Newman itis that we're now seeing. So should you be worried. Yeah, and you want to As the question came up, I think you asked the question very beforehand. Do you want to suppress the fever? Do you want to suppress the rigors, or do you wanna let it go and get rid of this by the heat of the of your body? Killing the bacteria? No. You want to suppress it because of the vulnerable plaques that you could break off and cause heart attacks, strokes, memory loss that worry something with the heart attack. The reason people die quickly is they have a arrhythmias and those abnormal heartbeats kill you. So, yeah, You want the people over the age of 50 you want to suppress it as much as possible. So that's where aspirin and Tylenol come in. Big, big time.

spk_1:   8:00
One important question. I want to ask. If there's been a lot circulating around that you should avoid. I profit.

spk_2:   8:07
Yes. So what? I be pro Finn does. Theoretically, we don't know Inhumans. There's some anecdotal reports from France, apparently, but I when we've tried to investigate and we can't find out good they are, um so the the Doctor Eyes Medical team. We've tried to look at it, and what I'd be pro Finn does is it stimulates growth of or presence of one of the receptors that the virus can dock on. So it's a small increase. You know, in the in the test tube studies, it's about a 30% in Greece. Um, conversely, if you will, um, the, uh, one of the the therapies cork when decreases if, um, these receptors by 30 to 16%. So that's why core Quinn in vitro studies is now being tested by the World Health Organization in large scale in in the, um, studies in the Italian. I see youse were told 100 patients. Randomized study 50. Get the cork Winter. Actually, they're getting plaque when l witches hydroxy core Quinn, which is more, uh, which has less side effects than cork when So they're getting that in 50 of them. 50 year or not, that's at least what the study we were told. Waas and we should have. And I was wondering, did the president, when he approved or was rushed, was pushing the FDA to approve core Quinn for this use. Did he have the data? And apparently the Italians have not released the date. If they have it, yes, s o there about a week into that study as we understand it in two weeks. If you if if 40% of the people in the I c u are dying in two weeks, you should have a pretty good indication whether that's effective at least as a treatment against the, um, pneumonia. So the pneumonia is what's killing the younger people. And some of the people who are older have emphysema or lung disease. Um, what? What's killing the majority of people? 60 80 is still the classic break off the plaque cause heart disease and they have any with me and die so different mechanisms. But at least the key point is keep your inoculate him as low as possible in fact, zero by keeping away from people.

spk_0:   10:43
So, Doc, let's just break down those things just so we make sure we get our arms around them. So first sticking with the breaking off the plaque. And that happens if you have that the the flu like symptoms, like the chills and things like that because of a fever. So what would would it? Would it help if you're you're saying it would help if it would reduce the fever and you mentioned aspirin, Tylenol? Would you suggest an ibuprofen as a way to suppress the people? Would you first reach for aspirin and Tylenol,

spk_2:   11:12
assuming that you're don't do extreme sports, so you want to check with the In this case, you want to make sure you can take aspirin safely. You don't have some clotting disorder. You don't do extreme sports like motor motorcycle racing or skiing without a helmet. It's that assuming you don't do those than aspirin is a very useful thing to take the decrease fever, as is Tylenol. And because of the worry about insides and the increased receptor a docking for the virus, you'd say, Okay, I'm gonna take aspirin or Tylenol and not take a nonsteroidal like ibuprofen.

spk_0:   11:53
That's very important. Everybody to listen to that. And is there any kind of prophylactic response? Should you should you just as a prophylactic response kind of, you know, maybe if you don't have any symptoms if you don't have anything, but you are over 50. What I'm taking is that many people over 50 have some plaque that they've developed, that you may want to take some aspirin as a prophylactic or some Tylenol is a pro tactic.

spk_2:   12:17
Oh, I take as you as I think I've told you. I take baby. I think almost every patient of mine over the age of 50 should be on twice a day. Baby aspirin with 1/2 a glass of warm water before and after. Why the warm water before and after? Because 70% of the side effects of the aspirin landing on your stomach lining causing bleeding. You reduced us almost zero if it lands in the warm water and dissolves that way. Why twice a day? Because 34% of us have have aspirin resistance genetically to once a day aspirin in its cancer prevention. Not it's quieting prevention. Everyone, Almost everyone will get a decrease in clouding with it, Which is why you don't want to do it if you do extreme sports. So I believe almost everyone should be on twice a day, morning and evening. Um, baby aspirin landing in a glass of warm water. You're

spk_0:   13:14
very good advice. So now, Doc, if we were to take it to the next level, which you already went into. But Meg Anon, I know that this is something you had on your list of questions. That's something that we've been talking about here because as it's come out, is it an old drug? It's a malaria drug, and I believe that the purpose of this drug is to suppress the immuno response. And that is what you talked about earlier. So can you tell us your thoughts? I know you went through it. Basically, you covered it a little bit in general. What are your thoughts? Is this something we should have hopes on? Is this something that is going to be a panacea. What do you think about this course? Win

spk_2:   13:50
or hydrochloric? Lee? We don't know in the test, too, Where it's been studied it the and you want to goto and you know I'm I'm telling it to you as a group will probably run out of it. But plaque window is hydroxy core Quinn much safer, many fewer side effects than than the core quint itself. Core Quinn itself when you get to a certain level, causes retinal disease and Wyness. So if you can get to hydroxy core Quinn now it's taken in during malaria season. 200 milligrams a day just is a routine to prevent it, and then you go up on the dose 400 milligrams twice a day for treatment. And that looks like in the studies that look at blocking this long receptor. So will it stop every problem? We don't think so, because most of the problems in muscle, the shaking chills, et cetera, are a receptor and muscle different than this. But maybe it stops thes immune cells from docking as well, and stops some of the severity. That's the hope. There are anecdotal reports from China and Korea, where they gave this to people in the I C. U. And they thought they survive better. No riel study on it. Just a few reports. So what's happened now is there is a way in and the test tube date Israel. The test tube date is this is pretty darn good. 60% decrease in the docking stations on the lung cells, so that date is pretty good. So that's why the World Health Organization is now doing a real study. With this, I'm at the right dosage. They picked that 400 milligram twice a day dosage. They give it ivy to get the same level. Um, in the Italian I see youse. So if it works because of the way we will know whether it's a treatment or not for the most severe cases, what we do know is that mode is a treatment. I'll come back to in a second, cause the immune serum, and you might even find an easy way of getting it, which I'll talk to you in a few seconds. So I'm teasing, if you will, of had a strengthen your immune system. But well, we'll come back to that But in fact, the, um we will know we should know in two weeks if the Italians have done the study right to be able to answer it. Um, you know, the Italian medical system in in Milan is now in air in that area is now in a real crisis, and and it's hard to understand why other than, um, it was it wasn't in. They didn't have emergency preparedness there either. And, uh, people must associate. So what's the mechanism? Transmission? It is definitely droplet. So you sneeze. You get droplets on other people, those people, if they get him inside, that's a mechanism. Second is it was worried that it was a row saw that it was worried what it was hoped that it wasn't. It looks like aerosol transmission does occur. That is, the virus lives in air for a period of time. Why's that important? Because in systems like an apartment building or an office building that were, you recycle air from here to the next room. Then, if one person gets that, your recycling it to them unless you've got filters that have ultraviolet light in them, or some way of killing the virus as well. Um, the, uh The third way is one that Paul Offit, who's a real expert from the University of Pennsylvania, worries about. And he said most of the people when he's looked at the case, reports from China and Korea and Japan. These people have gastrointestinal symptoms. That is, they have diarrhea or other symptoms with it. Megan, I I shouldn't ask you medical quick, but did you have any g i symptoms with?

spk_1:   18:15
I didn't have exactly what you're talking about. There

spk_2:   18:21
s so what? That's common with the flu. And it's common with Corona viruses. That means there is what we call fecal oral transmission transmission through food through people touching food that have it or the viruses being breathed on the food. Which probably means, um and you hate to say this, but at least Paul Offit would probably say we shouldn't be eating food, that we don't cook ourselves to kill the viruses. That is takeout food. If you don't heat it up real high, isn't it? Probably a good idea. You want to make sure you're cooking the food yourself, So I guess it's those be strong boola boo Whatever it's called, um, in the service is that provide you raw food that you cook yourself That's OK because you're cooking it yourself and your kill the virus is but the food that you get, as you know, delivered by uber or dash or whatever they are. Maybe not. Unless you re heat it to a very high degree of temperature 165 to kill the virus is in it. So the point is, we don't know whether it's vehicle laurel. We worry about that. How long will it stay in your iPhone or other things? It looks like up to three days. Um, so that's the that in cardboard that you get on the on the blue, whatever it is in the bistro etcetera one day. So that's the problem. So, um, if you e I would say that, um, people were in the supply chain. Don't get anything airship from trying a get it ground ships because it takes long enough to kill the virus on the way

spk_1:   20:12
you get packages. Should they be spraying those down? Lie solve for the touch, Sam.

spk_2:   20:18
No, because I know if you sprayed down with Lexa, what's a good you're still touch it you're gonna go inside it, right? So just wash your, you know, wash your hands well before you touch yourself with your hands.

spk_1:   20:30
Okay, Sorry.

spk_0:   20:33
What? I just want to talk bigger picture here for just for a second here. And I know there's no way of knowing this, but I guess what I'd like to understand is, what percentage of the U. S. Population do you think we'll wind up having this at one point?

spk_2:   20:47
We don't know how this is go, how it's going to pass from, if you will. So if you look at the Korea and China data, there were no cases in China today. If you believe that data and I'm hoping I can believe it, that it's possible that social distancing will make it rare enough so that the warmer way don't know why. Warm weather has viruses go away. Take a vacation in the summer months. But they do they It's not that they're totally gone, but they're really at low levels. We don't know whether it's the sun, has more energy to kill the virus or whether it's peoples, whatever it is. But, um, if you think that it's gonna go away as I do. 80% chance it goes away. Five of the six core for the five prior court. Violent Rhona viruses go away in April. We should start to see a decrease in the number of cases in the deaths in late April. Midday, bro. We should see a decrease in the in the cases. But we haven't been testing, so you don't know what that's gonna do. I mean, we talk about the testing problems. One of the most interesting testing problems Berry I think I told you about last night. Um, it is we've run out of swamps. The long swabs, they're only made one place. They're made by two factories, both here in Milan, and they're both on lock down, so we can't get the damn long, sterile swabs. There will be some others made, obviously, but we haven't been able to get those, But in any case, the point is, we haven't tested widely enough to know what it's gonna be. You know, my I got asked by ah ah a another famous real estate guru. Um, how many cases? And I said some place between grand 500,000 to 5 million in the U. S. And we'll have between 55,000 deaths. And then hopefully it will go away in April. Hopefully, we will get a vaccine made and they're wonderful cos now four companies competing on it, You know who did then? Foulke was brilliant. January 3rd and I h had enough budget. He let four contracts. CDC didn't have enough budget. They didn't let the contracts for the testing because of the budget and emergency preparedness cutbacks. But in any case, the couch he did and four companies air competing, I guess one. Someone's in Seattle there. And are you there? Megan? I can't remember. You're there, Ryan.

spk_4:   23:25
I'm in Seattle, guys.

spk_2:   23:26
Yeah, and one of the companies is already started The safety tests in Seattle. I know another one has started them in Philadelphia, so they're at least 22 of the company's heir in human safety testing already.

spk_0:   23:39
So my first of all, I think I speak for everybody and we really appreciate this, and I know we've got a great panel here, and I know everybody is chomping at the bit, so I apologize for kind of just trying to get some of this stuff initially framed out first with with you and I because we talked about these things. And I want you to just share with everybody what you shared with me, which is Ah, concern is to two points. One is what's my chances of getting it if I come into contact with somebody? Because we know measles was terrible, right? Everybody, you come into contact with you get the measles. So a If I come in proximity or come into contact or even if let's just say they do sneeze on me and my guaranteed I'm gonna get it or can I fight it off before I get it? And then the other thing is, can we talk about incubation? Because so many people that are listening to this are worried. This is goodness I was in an airplane or I was in a big crowd where there was somebody that was sick. That was near me. What are my chances were Maybe I even know somebody that has it. How long do I have to wait beforehand before I could cross off? That is a possibility. So could you address those two things from us?

spk_2:   24:41
Yes, or the average? The problem with this Corona virus, and it's a real problem with it is you could be a symptomatic and transmit it very rare in In Full and virus Lang lands. Um, and consequently, the average incubation time is 5.1 days, which means three times that, we say, is the time you could be asymptomatic and transmitting it 15 days. Which is why we have the quarantine of 14 days. Um, the S 0 15 days, you could be transmitting it. It's probably 90% of transmitted within 10 days, and probably I think it's 68% within five days. So that's the point now. How transmissible is it? Well, we have a phrase where are not which is the calculation of one person spreads that measles is 18. So one person with measles will spread it on. Averaged 18 people. It's pretty darn spreadable. Um, the average fool. I think it's a around, too. We think this is a little more spreadable than the average will. But no place in your measles, though in the 2 to 3 range. How easy is it together? You're if Megan was a natural. Um, if Mike Yeah, I'm hearing an echo Now, I don't know what

spk_0:   26:11
an actual there could. Somebody just you please guys just viewed. Unless he's

spk_2:   26:15
so probably, uh, to, uh, you know, it's one in 10 if you're in the room, Um, with Megan and not sneezing. If she sneezes on you and she's got it's probably, you know, um, 20% or something like that. A 30%.

spk_0:   26:31
Well, that's very encouraging, right? Because it doesn't mean that somebody Steve's on your guarantee to get it.

spk_2:   26:36
No. Especially if you wash frequently and you wash before you eat. If if If it is right and the fecal or root is that is a major source, then washing is really, really important. In addition to social distancing, I

spk_0:   26:53
got it. Okay, Meghan. But before we got everybody else, could you just There's a few questions I know that you compiled. And, you know, Meghan kind of could be a little bit of our case study, Doc, Maybe you can kind of ask Meghan and she could kind of walk through. So everybody knows because Megan was feeling yell you You thought that you might have actually been in contact with this and had it? Megan, based upon it, so I'll let you ask the questions that are common. And then maybe you guys could talk

spk_4:   27:16
about it in a little bit. It's everybody else, you

spk_1:   27:19
know. So I want to start off with some questions that we got from our users and subscribers. And the 1st 1 is, Does your blood type alter your chances of getting Corona?

spk_2:   27:31
I read that today that blood type O is less likely. We do have his where called History compatibility and certain blood types might have more receptors than others. I have not. I didn't I didn't have time to read the article to see whether it's ah, if you will a true scientific, uh, report or whether it's part of the Internet war. Um, so I don't know the answer to that.

spk_1:   28:01
So here's another question. Let's say that I do have corrupt and I start to feel better. How long after not signed period? Can I feel comfortable and safe was going out in public?

spk_2:   28:15
Um, that data e mean the Cleveland Clinic data on that is asymptomatic plus seven days.

spk_1:   28:25
Okay, Okay. Perfect. And another question we got now from

spk_2:   28:32
other places. Air saying asymptomatic and two days and then re testing.

spk_1:   28:40
Talk about testing a little bit, too. You know, we talked about the fact that we're out of what once

spk_2:   28:45
you once you get it, they will be a test. They will reach us because there is one guy you know. He's been on every TV show who, after getting asymptomatic, he had it. He got asymptomatic. He's still shedding virus 22 days later. So we are testing people when they get asymptomatic to make sure they aren't shedding virus Still,

spk_1:   29:08
So there's been a few ways that doing my research, trying to get tested here, It seems like one you call your health care provider and they work with, you know, the Florida health in this case to get you a test. Well, that's a challenge for some people, I imagine, especially for me and just, you know, tear. You know, I don't have a local health care provider are intact, and then the only other option would be to check myself into a hospital per se. And I'm curious. Do you advise that two people where they're having a hard time getting tested to go to something like a hospital or is that more, They're going to be spreading it more.

spk_2:   29:45
Yeah, we're worried about that. So we have We have right outside here is a, uh there's windows here. Don't worry. Um, way we have a ah drive through testing center, which is a literally It's a We have three of them now in Cleveland. But we're running out of tests, so we're only tests and believe or not, we're running out of Schwab swabs. So we're only testing healthcare providers and people over the age of 60 or who are really symptomatic and need hospitalization. So there's ah, you go through a screening process answer questionnaire. You get R S V and food tested. Those if those air negative, we get those in eight minutes. If those air negative than you can get the Carina test. If you're over the age of 60 or health care provider in your position, we go through. And in fact they did. It did one this morning. You these air people who are who physician is written in the Cleveland Clinic system. Anyone wearing Ford, are you?

spk_1:   30:53
I'm in West Palm Beach.

spk_2:   30:55
Okay, so you're close enough to the Cleveland Clinic system that you could actually, um, sign up there and get a Ah, you just go is an urgent care. But you do it by a, um, video. And then somebody like me and the Cleveland Clinic system ask calls you up, asks your series of questions if they if it you trigger it. And in Clean and Ford away have a more liberal selection process than here. So they must have better testing set up there than we haven't at the main site so far. Or moped, maybe more swabs. You can then get tested there and through the drive thru system. It literally is is a drive thru system, Um, and then you in 1 to 5 days. Now, why is it wonder five days? Because we're doing these in patches of 40 by hand batches of 40 cause no one provided the automated system that they have in the rest of the darn world. We're getting that this weekend. So we've been able to do about, um, we're able to do about 1000 tests a day Now. The demand is much greater than that, even in Cleveland. So we're doing now this weekend. I understand. I don't have it Officially, we'll be able to 10,000 tests a week on automate. It says 10,000 tests day with her

spk_0:   32:19
symptoms back. What's the first symptoms? So

spk_2:   32:21
you know the first symptoms air cough or sore throat if you believe that. But the data office is having says maybe G. I symptoms at first, and then you get sore throat and cough and then you get fever. But remember, you can. You can literally have no symptoms for five days and be shutting it.

spk_1:   32:44
Yeah, it's crazy. I've been watching people's experience, my experience firsthand. If anyone wants to know, it started off with just a sore throat on. And then I started to get a little more congested up here. And then I just started dry coughing, and then so much new kiss was happening that it came out and I started coughing up things. Um, now I'm on the way up. I really feel like I'm on the way up and you're just so tired like your energy is very, very low during all of this. So just listen to your body. And even if you're not shown symptoms, I think that it's really important for us to keep our distance away from me.

spk_2:   33:23
Did you get the flu shot this year?

spk_1:   33:25
I did not.

spk_2:   33:27
Yes. So it sounds like you have a regular food, not the corona virus. Wait a second. Wait a

spk_1:   33:36
second. Yeah, I just

spk_2:   33:38
gotta tell you, you're stupid for not getting the flu shot. Okay? But nice that you re sperm. In fact, that's what's happening in our the paint people were testing with symptoms that like that 97% of the tests of the Cleveland Clinic at the 1st 1400 I don't have today's results. 97% were negative and were negative for Corona virus. So it sounds like you've just got an end. In fact, of the people being screen, it is something like 50% of showing up with regular flu. That is testing positive for influenza R S V. So I want to tell all those people Do not do what you did. Please wait to get the flu shot. Now, the good news about this is, um, if you will they're the and Barry. I just wanted to get this in. I've got ah, I'm supposed to be on NBC TV in Portland, Oregon in 10 minutes or so, So I'm gonna break away. Um, but their cup, they're things you can do to strengthen your immune system. And what the immune system is important in the people who recover from this In China, they have taken their serum processed it. They volunteered quote unquote process there to donate their serum process, that cotton, the antibodies cleaned them up, sterilize them, given them back. And they had 10 out of 10 people in the I. C. You were given this recover, not randomized study, not the gold standard. That's what we're doing in Cleveland. That's what they're doing in other places. And I guess in New York as well to treat people with severe illness. And we don't know because we haven't done a randomized study. We don't have enough people, thank God to do it in in Cleveland. But it appears this is a fact that other things that give this believe it or not, there there is something called bovie In classroom cows get Corona viruses commonly, and apparently this is one of them the bovie, Inco, Ostrom. Maybe something that works on this is well, we don't know, but that's another approach people are using for And in fact, you can take these moving classroom tablets and maybe avoid the G I. The first entry

spk_0:   36:06
that's available. Botvin classroom tablets.

spk_2:   36:09
Yeah, like over the counter. Yeah. Wow,

spk_1:   36:13
Doc. Doctor, I'm gonna

spk_4:   36:14
ask you what? What

spk_2:   36:15
about all that? Let me go. Let me go and say so. Strengthening. And I'll be right back to you, Andrew. Strengthening our immune systems, the things that do it. Sleep stress management. Really good now for financial people, right? Strict sleep stress management. I'm doing the right amount of exercise. Meaning your usual amount going. Maybe a little more, but certainly not marathons. Those people do marathons to mourn two hours of exercise of a suppressed immune response and get more flu, Um, and cold, um, eating the right foods. So we go through with this and you told me to come on because of the book. So in what to eat when we go through how your immune system works and what foods you conduce Ooh, on to suppress it. So that's in what eat when there's a chapter on immune. But it is it's stress management, sleep, getting a multivitamin, believe or not, that helps twice if you get half of it twice a day. Um and, uh, as I said, a little exercise

spk_0:   37:16
and that baby aspirin twice a day to. So before we before we I know you have to go, but I know they Andrew's got a question. Think millions got some more on the other guys. Hey, we do like a real lightning round with very quick questions responses. But before we do anything, if you're watching this and you're gaining knowledge and you want to show your appreciation Dr Reisen, he could command all kinds of money and whatever. What? I mean, just he's a prince. If you want to say thank you, just buy his book, please. Just everyone who's watching

spk_1:   37:44
the book in the comments and also put it in the top where the video is this. Well, please

spk_0:   37:50
do that. That's your way of saying thank you. That is how you can say you appreciate what this man is doing for you and your family right now. That's what you could D'oh! So, Andrew, I know you had a question. Maybe you might have some other ones from viewers.

spk_4:   38:02
Yeah, and, uh, Doctor, thank you. So much for sharing this with us. Let me just, uh And you answered most of my questions in your response. You just said I wanted to know. What should we be eating and what vitamins she should we be taking? If you had any little you know on. Obviously I am gonna be buying your book as soon as we get off here. But if you can give us ex CEO a couple of couple of

spk_0:   38:25
days to do a light name because he's got to go,

spk_2:   38:27
it's avoid sugar. Added Serbs, Simple carbohydrates. The more fruits and vegetables, especially vegetables you have on your plate, the better. Um, and cruciferous vegetables stimulate immune system responses. Cruciferous vegetables, brussels sprouts, broccoli, cauliflower, cabbage, watercraft. They brought a rule. Goa. Um, the the coffee is great. Blueberries are sensational. Um, and so Berries and coffee are regular coffee without sugar and without the cream in it, um, other things. Ah, that's really the gist of it. And then, um, we can, sometime later, we'll do something on longevity And why you want to do, um, fast thing for 18 or 16 or 18 hours and eating over a six or eight hour period.

spk_0:   39:20
Yeah, We have to do another call on that. Because I know when you taught me all those things to try and keep me going for a long time, Doc, that was so enlightening. We'd love to do that with you. But, Megan, is there any viewer questions that we need to get to our questions? You out?

spk_1:   39:33
Yes. Someone asked two quick questions. What about elderberry?

spk_2:   39:37
Um, if you can find elderberry that isn't fake right now, you're really good. Because, uh, the internet supply of toilet paper and elderberry have both been bought up in excess. I'm so elderberry. Elderberry works when you first get it with colds, just like chicken soup, zinc lozenges and high doses of vitamin C. We don't have data that it works on the flu, but if you don't know what you got, it's worth trying. There's not a harm in it for short term. You don't want to take elderberry every day. There is toxicity from zinc lozenges and elderberry taken too long. So if you want to do something routine, they have chicken soup every day.

spk_1:   40:23
One more question to smoking marijuana or nicotine. Increase your chances of getting Colin, 19

spk_2:   40:30
that we don't think it increases your chances of getting it, but it certainly increases your chance of dying with it if you do get it. So it is vaping, um, smoking anything, um, E cigarettes and regular cigarettes of the common things or smoke. But it's smoking. Anything hinders your lungs. What we call your brooms. You've got things in your broom. The first part of your immune system is your skin, and then the silly of brushes. They get all the junk out of your lung much better, and it hinders those tremendously. And it makes the surface of lung cells more vulnerable for grown up by respecting and entering and causing severe problems. So, yeah, cigarettes are any kind of tobacco. Any kind of smoking is bad for you,

spk_4:   41:25
Dr Rosen. This is Clayton Collins and housing wire. I want to jump in a little bit and tied to some industry perspective. Here we have real estate agents that are still out doing open houses and showings in interacting with with homeowners and home sellers, and we have loan originators who are trying to close loans and touching closing docks and application files. Can you give us a little advice for the nationals that are still out there in the field working with homeowners and consumers as well as those who are touching physical paper and how long the virus may live on those documents and how people should be thinking about safety in that interaction.

spk_2:   42:00
Physical paper. It looks like three days it can live on it. So the key point is you're gonna have it on your hands. You're not gonna breathe it in or get it so wash and it's really tough. So, um, you know, how do you how do you do this? It could put gloves on. You will tend not to then touch your face and food with the gloves on. So wear gloves. If you from the mortgage origination Agent Prospect. Um, now, from the agents standpoint and sewing, I would try and do video sales. I don't know howto, you know, I don't know your business, obviously. But in ours, you know, we've gone 100% unless you've gotta have to have an in person meeting. Cleveland Clinic has gone 100% to tele visits from, and so this is this is the closest we tend to get to people if you're Wells or the the computer.

spk_0:   42:54
Brian. Frank. Ryan. You guys have a question for Doc?

spk_3:   42:58
Yeah, I'm 48 years old. I have pneumonia 10 years ago. Does that put me at a higher risk?

spk_2:   43:04
Um, probably not. Unless the pneumonia caused chronic lung disease. So if your pneumonia eat was so severe, is it? He ratted. Is it damaged your long Permanently. And they will. You can see that on X ray. If it did that, um, or it started because you smoked. Um, then, yes. But most times that walking pneumonia, the pneumonia is that young people get, um, usually, ah, no problem. And no and no increased risk.

spk_3:   43:35
So you're saying this Lysol here is not helping anything? I'm spraying everything in my office, literally spraying us. I'm spraying everybody with these license. I got a whole bunch of cans of these a couple of weeks ago. Is this not help? You know what? I spray all the handles and, you know, the bathroom and there is that we can make

spk_2:   43:51
it to go office other than you.

spk_3:   43:53
Yeah, well, I mean, you know, here. Well, here's the thing. Is You know the kids who work in our office, They're coming in contact with their friends.

spk_2:   44:00
Enya E. So what you want to do is keep that that as clean as possible. So, yes, it may be out full.

spk_4:   44:07
Send him home. All of our employees of housing wire home the only one here in the office today. So I'm spraying myself down.

spk_3:   44:14
We're out here in Solano County. So we just We were just told today Thio, um you know, to stay home. So yeah, I think this is gonna be the last time in the office for us. So

spk_0:   44:26
get Ryan. Any questions from you, my friend?

spk_4:   44:30
Yeah. I mean, we probably don't have time for my question, which is OK, but this has been so good. So

spk_1:   44:34
ahead I got I got six

spk_2:   44:36
more minutes before I have to go.

spk_1:   44:38
I just

spk_4:   44:38
want to unpack the statement that I wrote down, which is we should know in two weeks if the Italians got it right. I think the hope is that we have a treatment ready to go here. But if I'm hearing you right, we still got a way to see if Italy, which surpass China and desk today. Got it right. Is that accurate?

spk_2:   44:54
Yeah, Well, it's not Italy. The World Health Organization is doing a randomized controlled trial using Italian. I see you patients 100 of them. And so it is. Does this treatment work? Half of the people in out of the 100 will get the treatment. Half will not. Not your hand. We will. And there may be a dosage regimen, but it wasn't stated in the study out of the World Health Organization. If they did get it right, we will know in two weeks that this treatment works or doesn't. What we think works now is, um in fact, the for the sickest is taking the antibodies from the bone tears who have recovered in giving it to them.

spk_0:   45:44
I got your doctor. So I We appreciate this so much. And I know you have just a few more minutes, and then we're gonna kind of talk about this amongst ourselves and how it affects the people watching from a business standpoint, but this has been beyond beyond what we can even put into into any kind of quantitative value. It's so beyond that. So we're all grateful, but Doc, before you leave and you're such a prince to even want to give us the last few minutes, Could you tell us your thoughts on time and your thoughts on when this starts to get better, when we might be able to see a treatment that helps people And then most importantly, when there might be a vaccine that eradicates this thing?

spk_2:   46:22
So therefore, cos they're they're pushing on the vaccine. Two of them are in human safety testing. Both of those companies have said, um Moderna and in over and over here, I think of the two. And they have said that if they did three months safety testing rather in six months, they could have it in quantity by October. I don't know how valid those statements are, but those of the statements that they made publicly, I think at the press conference is I think it's only a week, a week and a day ago that the president had the vaccine manufacturers in, um the So that's that treatment. We just got to see what works. We're going to do some experiments. Obviously hydroxy core Quinn is going into air at rapid FDA testing. Um, the president said that today at the press conference, and we know the, uh that, uh, it is in the it it is in trial in, ah, by the World Health Organization. We know that, um, the immune serum look, So I get a work will have If we in New York, we should get out of New York. A randomized trial on that and maybe a month. Um, they've got enough cases to do that. Um, as far as pro full access, that is, what should we take and what should we do until then? And what? What's the time course? As they said, 80% of the Corona viruses go away starting about April 1st. If that happens, you should see the absolute case numbers. I don't know because of the testing parameters weirdness, but we should see cases drop in the United States. Death start to drop off by mid April, and you'll be able to resume somewhat normal life in the northern Hemisphere. Um, by May 1st or late April in the Southern hemisphere, they're supposed to get it now. Meaning until we get a vaccine, it is places below the equator that normally get what we had, um, as a viral infection. So from a world standpoint, um, e u I'm I'm worried that all those countries have you Look on the half gins map or the CDC map. It is places below the equator that don't have it. You know, you don't see it in Africa, you see very little and South last in America, usually very little in Australia. It's going toe. I'm afraid it'll bounce up in the Southern Hemisphere countries, But in the Northern Hemisphere, if we're lucky, and I and the projection is we should be lucky. Because of what Corona virus history is 80% chance. Will, um, we be able to resume more or less normal life by mid to late April.

spk_0:   49:29
That would be amazing. And doctor told me that if you this is unlike a like a chicken pox virus, where it lives on the nerve endings and it comes back like shingles this if you get it, God willing, it should be over. But then also, if you get it, are you then somewhat immune to getting it from somebody who has

spk_2:   49:44
that? There are a few people of recurrent in the, um yeah, I think It's the Japanese or Korean studies, but very few. So we think your immunity is the The antibodies you produce to it helps stave it off forever. Or at least for a while.

spk_0:   50:04
Doc, I don't even know how to thank you. Just a CZ, my dear friend, for doing this for you Just

spk_2:   50:09
getting into my privilege. Thank you.

spk_0:   50:11
People who don't know you don't know that size, the giant size of your heart and how genuine and wonderful of a man you are. But I think they've kind of gotten to feel for for the type of person you are, Doc. God bless you. Thank you. Please, Please, Please. You stay safe because the world's a better place with you in it. And we need you to be healthy and safe so you can help all of us. Thank you.

spk_2:   50:33
You're way too nice. Thank you.

spk_0:   50:36
Thank you, dog. And, please, everybody gotta buy his book and we'll let Doc go. Um, we're gonna We're gonna kind of keep talking to you now and tell you what we think this means for everyone else. So thank you, Doc. Bye. So, guys, here we are. We're all together and those were still watching. I'm just blown away by all the information that we just got. Probably more than we've ever been able. T even imagine a research. But I'll turn over to you guys now for for where You, uh what? You what? Your thoughts are first from Doc and also what you think the next stop. But we should We should start Thio work on with people here.

spk_3:   51:18
I'm hearing a lot of rumors about non Q M taking place right now that that markets being hit. Real artists, we speak right now. I don't know how much of it is rumor, Mills, but my phone's been blown up. Can we talk about that? What's the immediate future in on Q M?

spk_0:   51:33
So So here's you bring up such a great point and as normal, you guys were right on the pulse of the market. You're hitting dead on on. One of very important topic is so this has to do with why have rates gone up? This is something everybody's going crazy because you're the Fed cuts rates by a point. Your customer wants a point lower, but mortgage rates went up by a point, so why Is that happening? Well, here we go. So number one, we have to understand the Fed funds rate is not your mortgage rate. And what I'm going to do right now is I'm gonna show you. I'm gonna pull up a chart here just to show you very quickly what the difference is. And you know, Megan, maybe we could take this and we could post this chart so people could use it. So what we see here is we see, first of all, that the red line is mortgage rates. And this goes way, way back here to like in the 19 seventies. And the blue line is the Fed funds rate. Now notice the Fed could jack rates up. Mortgage rates come down. The Fed Jack's rates up. Mortgage rates come down. The Fed lowers rates dramatically. Mortgage rates barely budged. Fed raises rates. Mortgage rates come down. Take a look. The Fed takes and way down mortgage rates barely moved. The Fed Jack's rates up, mortgage rates barely move. Bed takes it to zero after the great recession, where he trades, just trickle lower over time. And here's the latest move. So bottom line team is that We have a situation where we should know that mortgage rates and the Fed funds rate of two different things that fed funds rate what banks charge each other overnight. Mortgage rates are going to be out there for 30 years, so there's a different thought process to them. Why do I bring this up? Because rates went up. First of all in the face of this, because why? Because when Secretary of Treasury Mnuchin came on, he said two things he said.

spk_1:   53:16
We need a huge stimulus

spk_0:   53:17
package. We need a huge stimulus package. Otherwise, you know what? Their economy, the economy is gonna be in big trouble and listen. You can understand that we want to help people, but $1000 for every person bailing out business is giving these. Given these programs and grants, this costs a lot of money. The Fed The government doesn't have money. The way they get money is they borrow it by issuing Treasuries. This shock to the system of trillion or trillions of dollars. It's just a supply and demand issue, much more supply than the market is prepared to absorb. And while it can observe it all at these levels at higher interest rates, there becomes more appetite to absorb it. That's why you saw interest rates rise. But the second thing, Mnuchin said, answers your question. Brian, so sorry for the long answer, but I wanted to give the background of it. So when Secretary Mnuchin said, If we don't do this, we will have unemployment reached 20%. Now, please put this in perspective 20% during the great recession, the depths of it, the financial crisis, Lehman Brothers, housing bubble, all the problems. Unemployment was 10% during the Depression, it was 20 to 25%. And that's why rates went up. Because when rates go up when you look a TTE other market conditions, that's one thing. But a new risk now is presented itself. If we hit 20% unemployment, I'm not saying we get there. But if we did, then what would happen is that people's ability to repay their mortgage becomes a new risk. And for that additional risk rates go up. Now, think about your cue em products they tend to, but not always be a bit more of a for lack of a better term, a riskier transaction. So if we get higher levels of unemployment. If we get a prolonged downturn in the economy, Q. M transactions become the first domino to fall. And maybe that's the That's the problem is that it's added rest

spk_4:   55:15
bride you need. Do you mean you mean AKI Lamb, right?

spk_0:   55:18
Not cute. I'm Swiss. That's it yet. Forgive me. Forgive me. Forgive me. I'm trying to speak a little bit too quickly. So forgive me and thank you for

spk_4:   55:26
clarifying. Yes, I talked Thio. Bob broke Smith the MBA about that this morning and we talked about me housing. Why? We've seen no less than than three paws letters today from non Cuban lenders. I'm here from a few other folks in the market that there's no more than three non que, um, lenders active in the in the market right now. And that's all kind of pointing back thio toe warehouse lines and people getting that that margin call and squeeze last week as rates moves so quickly. Is that in line with what you guys are here, Brian?

spk_3:   55:59
Yeah, that's exactly what we're hearing right now. And so, you know, this is this Reminds me of 2008 but it seems to be coming in a much more vigorous pace. Now it's just fasted periods. And, you know, I'm not sure what the rumor mill is. Um, Marcus taking place. I did call a couple of our non Cuban sources, and they did. They did verify that they're starting to have liquidity issues, that they're going to change their underwriting guidelines that the rates are going to increase. And they're going to, um, by design, be pushing less volume through if they're even pushing it all right, now and again because it's a rumor mill. I don't want to get into the names of the company's, um but I heard, you know, one of the non Cuban puppies was fairly big out there is not honoring their existing blocks right now.

spk_4:   56:43
And so I saw that as well. So So, Barry, you talk about the risk associate ID there mean, a lot of the non Cuban loans are goingto entrepreneurs and kind of riskier borrowers and maybe have a higher impact from from a recessionary risk. Maybe not your typical w two employees. Um, how are you advising loan officers to think about that right now? And they have Ah, those bars that might be might be coming in. And, ah, in looking for a low rate on purchase or if I, um what do you What? What should they be advising Ryan to be interesting here. Your view there, too.

spk_0:   57:15
Well, Clayton, you hit the nail on the head. I mean, these are the exact type of borrowers that will have, ah, more difficult time If non Q m continues to tighten up. What I would be advising loan originators is, too. Listen to the words from Dr Mike Rising again because, quite frankly, he painted a picture that suggests that while this is not going to immediately get better, there is light at the end of the tunnel and based upon what he was talking about timetables. April may. Let's just see even that that tends to be optimistic. June or July. It's an inconvenience, but it's not devastating, right? So if you have to wait a couple of months to get transactions done on a purchase or even on a refinance, I think that's probably something that we all at this point in time, I think we don't sign up for that, right. So if that's the prognosis. That's the advice I give is patients. At this point in time, let's take care of one thing at a time.

spk_4:   58:16
It buried two things that I'd love for you to clear up. Because this is you're so good at this. This show's crossing over into mainstream. We have a lot of consumers watching so at 1/5 grade level, because this is what you're great at. Can you explain what Clayton and Brian talked about margin calls and then also non q m. I want them to stick around and listen to this, and I don't want it to be over their heads.

spk_0:   58:35
So here's the thing when we try to explain why mortgage rates have gone up in the face of the Fed lowering rates, the Fed lowered rates because what's so important to them is to protect our banking system. And this is really critical, and this is where it can get scary for us. So let's just understand how our banking system works and we'll try and do this quickly. When you deposit money in a bank, you're lending them money, and they often times will what will keep what will have money available if you need it, but they don't have all your money available. They're required to have 10% of it available. The other 90% is in the open market that they're making investments to get a greater rate of return than what they have to pay you. And that's how banks make money. It's a wonderful system, but from time to time or people want to take money out, then the bank house handy. Our system contemplates that is called a repo system, a repo market where one bank, bank a Congar to bank B and borrow money from bank be temporarily till this washes out. Now, the feds said, we're gonna make it easier for bank beetle and money. We're gonna drop rates were gonna make it easier for you to borrow money. We're also going to eliminate some of the restrictions that tied up money. According to the stress test, they did all those beautiful things, which was great. What what Bank B doesn't have the money because bank, these customers are looking for it. That's when the Fed came in and injected liquidity by saying, Listen, don't worry, send us tow us will buy. We won't lend it to you. We'll just buy your assets. So you have liquidity. And this is what the Fed is panicked about right now because the reason why they're throwing these trillions of dollars out there is imagine this worst case scenario team, and this is where it gets scary people that are out there right now. These poor people that are not working, maybe some of them are listening right now and you're out of a job and maybe your employers nice enough to pay you for a period of time, But we know that that's temporary. And even if the federal government comes and gives you some money temporarily, you know that that goes pretty quick. So maybe you have to go to the bank and access your savings. The worst devastating thing that could happen in this country is you go to the bank and the bank can't give you your money. That's what the Fed is trying to do to try and help us right now to make sure that our banking system is working. So that is the first thing that the feds trying to do with these actions. So when you hear these trillions of dollars. When you hear all this stuff, that's what the Fed is trying to do now to answer your question more specifically. Now that we know that the feds trying to do what does this mean for people in our industry and for people working with mortgage companies? You know, when rates dropped, everybody thinks it's a big party. It's not such a big party on the other side of things, which when you service loans means you're maintaining that loan like a superintendent apartment building. You pay to be able to do that, and you get paid a feat. But it takes a few years to break even on that. So as loans refinance, you lose money. That's a problem as we're trying to get loans done and processed, and now people working at home, which means less efficient, it's more taxing on the system. So when we see all of these things occur, lenders are losing a lot of money there. Now here's the other thing is margin calls happen now. Rates going up, believe it or not, was one of the best things for the mortgage industry because of this, because of margin calls. Now here's what happens when you when you lock alone in with your lender, It's not like it gets magically locked. The customer goes to a lender, Lender says, Okay, you're locked in it three and 1/2 percent or 4% it doesn't magically lock. That loan will only lock when it's closed. So in the time that you locked in with the lender through the time that it closes, that lender is making a promise to you. And that loan could go up or down an interest rate, and the lender will have to buy that rate are closing for you. So how did they protect themselves from losing money? The in essence, they buy kind of an insurance policy. And if you've ever shorted the stock, you know that what will happen is if the stock gets worse, you will make money. So if rates get worse, this instrument allows them to make money so that if rates were locked at three and 1/2 with the customer, but by the time you close, it's four. This instrument gives him enough profitability so they could buy the rate from 4 to 3 and 1/2 and keep their promise this works beautifully, but when rates come down, the opposite happens. You're making more money on the loan, but your insurance policy loses money, so therefore it typically works out, except when rates come down so fast. The insurance policy is way upside down, but you haven't closed the loan yet. So what happens is that insurance policy says we're going to do what's called a margin call, meaning I know, on paper, you've got the profits. Never Javan clothes alone yet. And I'm not gonna wait and I'm not gonna risk it. I want my money and I want it now. And lenders have to write a check for that, Which is why you saw some lenders say we don't take any more loans. We can't do any more locks. It's because of this margin call mechanism, Clayton, that very few people understand. This is why, when rates have gone up, it actually alleviated this potential problem. So in a way, it was a blessing and longer term. If we don't see too much that the government gets us in debt too quickly, we should see rates settle down.

spk_4:   1:3:42
And we have to recognize that that that margin call that that exist isn't just because of business practices. Also regulatory practices. And the regulators are watching watching ratios, which puts pressure on lenders to make that margin call. Call in squeezes warehouse lines and and that's something that's it's kind of been impressive to me to see a small group of leaders in the industry come together to get with regulators and hopefully loosen that up a little bit. So we don't see this squeeze, and I think that one of the things that's really exciting the one exciting thing going on right now is that the housing industry has the potential to be a real bright spot in this recession versus being the darkest spot in the last one. And, ah, the industry coming together to support putting capital back into the economy. And I'm helping homeowners refi that that cash can going to other parts of the economy is something that I think this community, that the folks that are on this call have a big ability to impact.

spk_0:   1:4:42
Clayton, you are so right and mark my words on this. I promise you that this will happen. I'm highly confident. The first thing that will turn up is the housing market. It will take a bit of a hit right now because, as we did, we talked about it will slow things down. It won't be terrible, but the housing market was super healthy, more demand than supply. And it'll be harder for businesses to get re ramped up and openings for large companies and restaurants to get restarted again. The first thing that will turn up is this thing starts to calm down and go away. People get back to buying houses, and that will lead us out of it. People reading more refinances This is what's gonna lead us out. And if you're doing somebody's refinance, or if you're thinking of doing a re finance, don't just look for a lower rate look to reduce your debts. Look to take a shorter term. This is a golden opportunity for you to build for your future. And like you said, this is a time for us as an industry to help the general public by accessing money that's in their home to help them get through this by reducing their monthly payments. This is what we could do for the further to do good in the world right now.

spk_4:   1:5:43
I'm very yes, I know this is a question that that is even something that we would have any answers to this. But I can't oppose this to the entire panel s O. Today. I spoke to three people, one major ho cellar and get a two major retail guys. Um, and all three of them said that they had in one week they did more business than they they've done in some of their best months. His turns of taking applications in, um, those Luke's gonna be able to close, you know? I mean, even even with, you know, 90 day locks. Ah. You know, um, it's It's an ugly situation out there between actually the physical appraisals that need to get done when a drive by isn't isn't just, um you know, call for, uh, What do you guys say? Yeah. I mean, um, injuries. Ryan, you're on the front lines. That's a great question. Is a really good question. Theirs. I think if if you could take a poll, lenders would tell you there hundreds of people short. And when it comes to capacity to help close these loans, which is you know, why we're seeing. Regardless of the NBS, AC activity rates aren't necessarily dropping because they just already have too much business. Almost everybody has in their pipeline right now more than they do in 1/4 to your point. And so we've got to get through that business right now. And if we have any sort of like self quarantine for 30 days, that's gonna throw another monkey wrench into this. We're really waiting for Fanny to come out with some direction on possible drive by appraisals. And how we handle view is this is very, very fluid. Anybody tells you they have the answer and says they can close 100% of their portfolio. I'm sorry. I'm not sure that they're being with us. We're just doing our best. Brian. I know there's two things out there right now that we have 23 states that are approved for ah, remote online notarization. And there's ah, Bill, um, in front of the in the White House right now in the house that that would have a federal approval for all 50 states toe have immediate access remote online notarization, which would be one small part of that. Like clearly There's a big implementation, um, time when there doesn't happen immediately. But like it, the pressure is there, and I've also been I think this is already out there in the public, but I know the GSC they're working on Fannie and Freddie are gsc the gsc ah, approval for appraisal waivers or lightened load drive by appraisals on reef eyes. Yes. See, the GSC trophy loosens up some of that refined market. Yeah, sorry, I'm just excited about I think that's gonna be one of the many things that we learned through this. Is that online? Notary? Um, I think lenders are scrambling to implement that. And I can't see is really going backwards once we have that that efficiency in place. So it's one of the things that's actually gonna increase our efficiencies through this tough time.

spk_0:   1:8:41
Yeah, I know, Frank. I think you had a question. And Megan, I know you've been monitoring what's going on. They're so frank. Tell us and then make it. Maybe you could monitor what people are asking.

spk_3:   1:8:49
Yeah, my My whole thing was Is this First of all, the sly was phenomenal. Thanks for getting it together. Very appreciate it. And having, Uh uh, Dr. Royston on was fantastic. And and and obviously, in the first part of the show here, the live, you know, a lot of it was, you know, very it applied to everybody. If you're in the industry or not, right, you know? And now we're spending a little bit of time definitely looking at the mortgage side of things and how things were gonna be impacted. More Detroit. We can really talk about the real estate agent's yet, so I kind of want to touch base on that. Just just a little bit here, because we're definitely seeing a lot of things happen in that In that in that world, you know, we're seeing sellers potential sellers go. I'm gonna wait this one out a little bit, you know? And also, what we recently have been seeing is, um, we're like, for example, my local board of Realtors just sent a email out everything like an urgent email saying, Hey, absolutely no open houses, no broker tours whatsoever. Yeah, that's gonna take kind of a big toll on the real estate entry. No, we talked about this on our last live on site, but I think I think for the realtors that are watching, they may want to hear a little bit from you again just on what? Your thoughts on all this. Because the Board of Realtors is actually saying, Hey, use technology, use things like listening, booster key, boom or whatever. You know where it's like they can preview properties without actually having to go into the product into the property itself. But I just wonder if we could just talk a little bit about the Realtor side of this thing. Um, you know, from your perspective,

spk_0:   1:10:10
such a good point that you bring up. And if you're looking for a home or if you're looking to sell a home, there will be a slowdown. This all of these experts have told you, and and and you're right and great tools like e boom and listing booster really help. The thing that we have to understand is that what are the fundamentals? You know, whenever you have a panic situation, if you put on your Warren Buffett hat or your Sir John Templeton hat or you think about the great investors of all time, if you try and think like that, you know I know that most important thing here is the health situation. I get 100% onboard, but you're asking a question. That's a business question. I would think that to some degree there is going to be a very good opportunity here. And I think that if you are looking to purchase a home, if you think about where you were a month and 1/2 ago, you were being outbid, you'll be having a tough time finding inventory. So now, to the extent that you could do this safely and use technology, and I understand that this is not a perfect world. But this may actually be an opportunity for you right now, because here's what's going to happen is pray to God that it's quick. But at some point in time, this is going to level out. So you always want to look at when there's a crisis. Where were we before things got crazy before things that before the world turned around, we had an environment where real estate guys, we're going up where there are more buyers than there were sellers, whether interest rates are very low and where our economy was doing good. So while it may take some time. We will get back there and you will see values rise. So this could be an opportunity to purchase a home It If you're a homeowner, don't worry. If there's a little bit of a dip here, it will come back.

spk_3:   1:11:52
You know, you wonder what do home construction? I mean, how much of that is gonna get put up for the next couple of months? Said the ability to increase their inventory? Um, we're hearing a lot about GPO's increasing early payoffs, you know, lenders going out there and moving them from, you know, one month to know months to three months to 12 months and again without naming cos it's ah, you know, one of the big ones was, ah, wholesaler who apparently missed a few margin calls again. I'm sure a lot of this stuff is happening out there. Is this connected? Is it going to hurt? Uh, your retail over wholesale? Is there any different there?

spk_0:   1:12:31
Brian, the first thing you said was brilliant as well. It's a great question that you talk about the abuse, but you mentioned in passing a very, very important point. Now I'm dear friends as you know, with Ivy Zelman and I talked to Ivy now almost every day about what's going on now, zing. And she's the number one housing analyst in the world. Okay, So Zelman researches is the number one of the most respected housing Alice in the world. And she is telling me exactly what you said. So you, now that you you are correct, because builders are definitely slowing down. So she looks at it from their profitability standpoint to But yes, certainly that means less supply on the market in a already depleted environment. That, in a strange way, bodes well for home values going forward now, to get back to your question, we always seem to be fighting the last war. So yes, early payoffs, definitely our concern. So when you take a look at it at an early payoff, no, typically six months from now that you have to wait before you know you can refinance that loan and paid off. That's something that was causing lenders to lose money. But when interest rates go up, that becomes less of a problem. What I think might happen is that as we look back at the last war and we say OK, we were having a very tough time losing servicing. I think that those early payoff thresholds increase to more closely approximate the time it takes to break even on servicing. I think so, just one man's opinion.

spk_1:   1:14:02
So Linda brought up something, you know, she said, I think we she said, Do you think that we should make a weekly Facebook live update during this crazy time? And for anyone that's watching, I think that this pandemic is giving us a great opportunity to step in and be an adviser in the way that we can be without actually touching people. It's through the use of social media. So yes, I encourage you to get on talk about the market, update your clients, you know, give those testimonials. Try connect with people while we are in quarantine and you can't connect with them. And the same goes with real estate agents. Do you guys have anything that you want to say about? You know, how we can engage and build those relationships where we can be whatever

spk_4:   1:14:46
and I got something to kind of piggyback on that because I I agree, like we should be out leading the way. Loan officers, originator CEOs. But you know, Barry is kind of an educator of the educators. He's teaching the teachers, and I couldn't imagine doing my job without NBS Highway. True story. Very. Don't don't blush, but I wake up and I get the techs from NBS Highway because you're on the East Coast on the West Coast, and I already know what's happening. The second thing I do after I wake up is that watch the update and so just a little Shout out, man, if if you're an originator, I hope that you've had NBS highway if you haven't an optional you've done your job lately. But I would tell Realtors and the consumers watching like it is worth its weight in gold. Like subscribe now because I don't know if you're gonna go out there and do it. Megan just said, which is an amazing idea. You have to be educated first, and so I'm thankful, and I just regurgitate almost everything I hear from Mary. He's really the smart one, but I'm able to share that with the world. So just a shout out kind of Ah, just I'm begging and pleading the originator, Realtors and consumers. It's it's describe,

spk_0:   1:15:49
Well, Ryan, that's awfully kind of you. Before anybody subscribes by Mike's book first, because I think we all owe him instead of thank you. And you know, Ryan, what you do, what Frank and Brian do what Clayton does, what Andrew does. Megan. The stuff you do, every all of you on this panel. I am your biggest fans. And I am so grateful and appreciate that I think everybody is because I think what all of us are really trying to do is we're trying to do good here, and we're trying to help people and get the word out. And as Megan said, you know those of you watching this use social media to get that word out to get that education out, your it's up to you, and I know that we're coming within 15 minutes of the college. I would like to say this, and I just really want to say this from the heart that this is an easy time wherever you are to be frustrated. This is an easy time for you to, um, to be worried and to be concerned. And that means maybe your your temperature. Our tempers are a little bit more easily to get flared up. Please, please, Please, please. This is the most important time to be compassionate and kind and understanding. And I know that you're if you're listening to this is a customer. You're more usual. Hundreds just trying. Just trying to make it through this time, okay? Because we need the longevity of that industry. You know, your real estate agent has had so many issues and troubles. And if you're because of this virus, if you're a real estate agent, understand? The mortgage company that's out there is doing everything that they possibly count it to. Facilitate this in these crazy times. And if you are in the mortgage industry, please, I know that your company, the people that are working there, they're doing their best and the leadership in your company they're challenged. Right now, they are seeing things change rapidly. They're losing money on different ends, trying to make it up on one end. This is not the time, Thio. I think that anybody is trying to do something wrong. This is a time to be loyal, to be kind to be understanding. Once we get through this will all be so much happier. So I just want to say that before we go forward and I want I want to thank all you for taking your valuable time. Nobody gets compensated paid for this. You guys are all top level, super busy people, and you're all here just to do good for others.

spk_3:   1:17:59
Well, me and Frank are breaking the law by being down here right now. We're together right now. It's like, this is not good for the only thing I want to say. I'll add here and well, I think I think this is going to change fundamentally how people communicate with each other. I think you're gonna see a lot of more lenders and realtors start to use different means communication that, you know a lot of especially our younger buyers and sellers are using. But here's the point. I want to bring up this real quickly. When the doctor said that he believes Bobo ankle Ostrom might be the solution. And Barry said, What can you just, like, get it over the counter? And he goes, Yeah. So when we went looked it up earlier, they do not have it at your Walgreens, your G and sees or excuse me, your Walgreens or the CBS, but you might be able to find it sprouts the vitamin shops in your GNC. So those air open and you want to get the Boban classroom that the doctor was talking about those

spk_1:   1:18:48
comments and you could find it. The tractor supply stores.

spk_3:   1:18:55
There you go. There's gonna be other

spk_1:   1:18:57
daddies be. It's what's for dinner.

spk_0:   1:19:02
Meghan. Any other questions that we should try to answer from people that are that are watching and that want us to try and see if we can. We can be of help to them.

spk_1:   1:19:13
Well, a lot of people kind of, you know, you talked about a calm down in the market, but can you give kind of a time frame on No, no, no. You said you to go back and look at before we got into all this what was happening in the market. But as far as you know, short term in longer term clients under 30 days out, whatever the case may be, what is this suddenly down going? Take,

spk_0:   1:19:34
please. So you know a lot depends on what Dr Mike was saying. He gave a very aggressive timetable towards a return towards normalcy. So that's very encouraging. That's encouraging for two things. The number one is help, but number two that means less federal aid. Less federal aid means less supply of Treasuries, which means less impact on Treasuries having to go up, which will grant which will sort of pull mortgage rates higher, too. So Treasuries would rise, mortgage rates would write, so less aid means less supply less impact. If you would ask me for the next couple of weeks in this time of uncertainty, I think that we can expect elevated interest rates because of the fear of unemployment going up and the fear of the Fed getting on the need for a lot more borrowing, the longer it lasts, the worst that it would be parades. The sooner we get something that happens, then we could see much better, longer term rates and a much better recovery for interest rates. I think that a three week timeframe to me that sounds too aggressive. I think that for the next couple of months we're going to have a little bit of choppiness and probably a grab a sort of higher rate. That should be more of, ah, of a feeling that rates would be a little bit on the rise as we go through this period. Hopefully not too much.

spk_1:   1:20:54
Great in a question. You know, I've been credits hearing around ISS with these unemployment rates rising, you know, after this whole virus goes away and settles down, do you see those numbers coming back down relatively quickly? Or do you see this kind of escalating us into a recession? If we're not already in one and passed a recession of her? People talk about this becoming a global depression. What are your thoughts?

spk_0:   1:21:20
Well, definitely in the recession would definitely the global recession. We're in it right now. We were headed there anyway. You know, my forecast for in 17 2020 20 looks like a recession year. And I kept it that forecast. I think we would have hit their anyway by the end of this year because everything you know, you we were on Meghan. You're on with Dr Lacy Hunt. He is the number one authority. In my opinion, he's one of my idols for understand the economy. And he was telling us that he felt that all of the indicators he shared world trade and everything else pointed to a global recession. So, yes, that would have happened. Yes, were in it. And now, because of growing a virus, but the recovery from it usually is pretty. If you don't stay in a very, very long maybe within a year, and then you see a very nice recovery overtime out of it. I think that we follow that pattern, Meg, and I think that you will see you will see good times ahead. We just have to get through this period of time here. First, let's put the virus behind us. Then there'll be a period of slow down restructuring, get back on our feet and will probably do it in better ways because the reset that will happen will be more efficient. And it will be a way that we could see actually better times in the future.

spk_1:   1:22:32
Yeah, sorry. Yeah,

spk_4:   1:22:36
And one of the things they're just gonna say is like what? This model? What we're going through right now is allowing put the lenders that are best prepared, um, that are fully digital, that are the most efficient. That, um had people working from home without it without actually any any kind of hiccups. Those lenders that is going to survive this and that's just the new way of doing business. If you look a tw 22,008 we went from an industry that was focused on managing risk for the maximum profitability to an industry that's focused on customer experience. Um, this is I think there's gonna be something is gonna force us into being the most efficient a way we could do this in the least amount of contacts

spk_0:   1:23:30
and and one of the things that I think Megan Up. Do you have any other questions there?

spk_1:   1:23:37
I wanted to ask you about the stock market. I know that you've made some pretty crazy calls. I want to ask you about it.

spk_0:   1:23:44
Yeah, I did. When the S and P, who's at 3200? After peaking at 3400 I said that the stock market was gonna go to 23 50 and I know everybody thought it was nuts and I talked about it on Fox's said if it closes below 319 we did 23 50. Look out below yesterday we had 23 50 on the S and P, and a lot of people are asking me What do you think? I am sorry to say, but I do think there's room for it to go lower. And if you want to know how much lower on the S and P, My next level is 18 10 on the S and P, and that isn't very different than what we've seen in recessionary times. Maybe you talked about a recession. So how does it impact the stock market? It's quite it's quite feasible and quite common to see a 50% decline during a recession from the peak of the stock market has to be at 3400. Half of that would be 1700. Given the severity of what's going on, I think 18 10 is a reasonable target for the S and P. So listen, don't panic. It'll come back over time. If you have time, be patient viewed as a buying opportunity.

spk_1:   1:24:50
Yeah, that's really what I want to leave us with us and only bar over on this call. But I think it's important because he talked a lot about a lot of scary things that are leaving. People have more stress, more anxiety. Let's end on a positive note here and talk a little bit about you know, where people should be investing right now to come out on top of all of this and just give some optimistic hope on what people should be focusing on and what they should be doing during these times to stay ahead of this.

spk_0:   1:25:19
Well, I'm sure everyone's got got some some ideas here, so let's open it up to them. I will. I will tell you mine after everybody kind of gets a chance to give their views after a

spk_4:   1:25:30
couple days of, ah, working at home and investing in a house with a nice home office feels like a pretty good idea. I'm

spk_0:   1:25:39
gonna stay in my lane and know my role and defer

spk_3:   1:25:46
you. This is an opportunity to go get to know your kids. Yeah, I'm sorry. We've been through some really tough times before, you know? And, um, if you just buckle down and you just get through it, you know, and for those who get through it, you typically come out the other end looking pretty good.

spk_4:   1:26:08
And I'll come back in a little more. A little more serious recommendation. I mean, I think we're seeing the the lenders and the realistic professionals who have invested in technology and heeded the advice of the industry that's been innovating and working on solutions Empower them to be more impactful remotely, digitally mobile e are gonna fare better during this period and on the back end of this period. And it was it was mentioned earlier. Um, this pressure on the economy, this pressure on our profession, professions, is if there's gonna be a positive impact, the impact's gonna be We adopted the technology that that people have been working on. And, ah, the industry has been pushing out there. And I I think, um, for better for worse is gonna be a bifurcation between the folks and the organizations who are ready digitally and ah, and ready with technology.

spk_3:   1:27:02
Yeah, you know, just duck tail up that I agree that I think this is going to permanently transform, as I said before, how people communicate and it's gonna be for the better. You know, I always tell real truce and lenders when I do events, I say you got to speak the language, Um, of of those whose business you covet. And it's not French or English. It is technology. People are communicating in just such drastically different ways. That's changing right before our eyes. And I think this is really gonna give a moment of pause for a lot of people in our industry to really start reaching out looking at all the different forms of communication that we have. And I think that's gonna be for the better

spk_1:   1:27:40
s sorry for all of you that we're not comfortable doing video.

spk_4:   1:27:47
Listen, what? One of the things kind of pile onto Clayton's point. Um, but so too, the lenders I spoke to today, um, have they looked at, you know, technology not it's something to add on to your business, wasn't it? Wasn't a tool. It was part of your business. There was a core part of your business operations, wasn't separated from technology. And

spk_1:   1:28:09
those two lenders,

spk_4:   1:28:10
um, they were cops. They like, you know, they eye you could hear in their voice level of confidence. Um, whether they're gonna be able to close their all the loans are in the pipeline is a whole nother thing, But there's no question about it. They're confident in their in their system. Those that are embracing technology are gonna win up. This is the time we need leaders, you know? Don't hide. Get your message out there. Take some of the things that were taking that that were presented in this. Think. Thank you, Barry, for bringing your personal doctor to share it. Theis wisdom on here. I mean, we're just blessed. I'm I'm excited. Students. I get done with this. I'm gonna go buy his book. I'm gonna read about the chapter, actually, on what I should be eating. Um, but I think this is the time to lead. This is the time to actually show that were leaders in our organizations, our communities and even in our family's well,

spk_0:   1:29:03
you know, thanks, Andrew. And, uh, all of you guys are such amazing leaders in this video communication. And certainly Megan, I mean, you you are a great leader in our industry and helping people know that and understand that. So if you're watching this, you know, you're getting an eye into the future, So just be in touch with any of these wonderful people that you are seeing on this panel that are so generous, and they will definitely help you master your expertise there. No, Frank. Brian, You guys have been doing that for such a long time. And teaching people probably before anybody I know. And you guys have been great and great leaders there. And you know, Meghan, you asked a question of what you should be investing in, so I don't want to give anybody financial advice, But I would tell you what I'm looking out from a personal level one. I think real estate is a great investment, and I believe there to be an opportunity right now in real estate. Of course, time will get you two, I think incredibly profitable levels there. So I'm not saying to trade it. Don't buy a home and sell it two months from now. It's not what I'm suggesting, but this a great time to buy a home because over the next few years, however long it is, you will do extremely well stocks, to the extent you can afford to be dust in the stock market. Do so with some advice. And I will tell you what I would look at doing. I think that any level below 2000 the S and P While it might still go lower, it's very hard to time the exact bottom. But I would say that if you were to invest it that level over time for me, if I invested that level over time, I think that it will be a very good move for the long haul in my humble opinion. But what I really want to tell you is this is investing yourself, invest in yourself because really just continue to be educated, continue to be pushing yourself to be the very best person that you could be right now, in these times, when you need it the most. And I know you've got issues, I know that you've got fears, but all your problems that you have is probably about seven billion plus people out there who would beg to have your problems. Even more importantly, if you're worried about, is this loan gonna close? I'm talking to my brothers and sisters that are in the mortgage business right now. If you're worried about, is the rate higher? Will I meet this deadline? All of these things, with my customer be able to close because maybe they lost their job because of you. I get that. I know that that's stressing you out. But there are a lot of people that would beg to have your work problems because they have no work right now. And just be thankful for that. Be grateful every day. Be grateful for these people that gave their time. And please say thank you to Dr Michael. Reason for being such a prince buys Brooklyn. Show him our appreciation. And this way, maybe you'd be kind enough to come back and do this. Forget for us again when we really need him to give us an update on this print a virus.