South of 2 Degrees - The Science Behind Climate Change

The Story

Brian Barnes Season 3 Episode 1

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A look at three stories underlying the importance Climate Change, biodiversity loss, and the natural systems around us as South of 2 Degrees kicks off it's 3rd season.

This is So2D and I am your host Brian Barnes. It is so good to have you with us today on the only podcast dedicated to bringing unfiltered scientific research to the forefront of the climate conversation. We’ve got a wonderful season opener for you today as we look at the underlying stories of climate change, biodiversity loss, and natural systems - so my friends, once more into the fray.


I can’t express how excited I am to finally be welcoming you back as we officially kick off the 3rd season at South of 2 Degrees. Between staff moves, a brand new studio - where we may just expand into video this season - some tech refreshes, and a slight reimagining of the show, it has been delayed for well… more than we would have liked, but are happy to be back. 


Now, before we kick this off today, for all the new listeners - here’s a bit of a taste of the show regarding where we are going and where we’ve been with guest like His Excellency the President of Palau, President Whipps, Bill Weir of CNN, Dr. Sylvia Earle, and many others :


Audio Clip (you can find the video of this clip at www.southof2degrees.org)


Sound good? Well, on top of that, let’s hit on some highlights of what we do. Here at South of 2 Degrees we work to bring you the latest responsibly published scientific research on Climate Change and all the intricate systems it touches. This is not a show on lifestyle changes - if that’s your thing be sure to check out The Guilty Greenie out of the UK by Sara Ferris & Cait Bagby - incredible ladies, a fun show, and not as sciencey as we are here. Now to prevent your eyes from glazing over when we hit on the technical jargon, we bring in the latest techniques from the social sciences to help you better utilize the latest research. Outside of this podcast, we work with scientists, policy makers, and individuals on how to effectively communicate their research and the science behind anthropogenic Climate Change. And that is our commitment to you - to empower you with knowledge & equip you with the methods to communicate Climate Change, so you can go out and change the world.


Lofty enough? OK, here’s the basic version - we read scientific papers so you don’t have to fall asleep just during the abstract and then I ramble about it while taking a few tangents and making fun of myself. How’s that for truth in advertising for you? Either way, let’s get this party rolling.


So in the time off, the team has been doing a bunch of research and from that spawned the idea of today’s show. You see… simply put, the most effective way to communicate is through stories. That is ingrained in our universal cultural identity. We consume them, find them relatable, easier to understand, and effective in helping us make decisions. From a scientific standpoint, I often suggest you look back to a paper written by Fischer in 1987 called “Human communication as narration” where he discusses how humans are preprogrammed to tell stories. But today isn’t about HOW to tell the Climate Change story - for that check out episode 6 of season 2 for an in-depth breakdown. Rather today I want to talk about the actual stories underlying Climate Change, biodiversity loss, and natural systems. 


You see, when you stare at a scientific paper, most of us see a lot of big words, complicated formulas, and a good remedy in not being able to sleep. Yet these are all describing the natural world. I know you are probably going “Really Brian, I don’t need you to tell me that” - well, fair point but let me take it another step. The last time you were outside did you think of all the stories around you? Not the human ones, but the natural ones… Let’s go deeper… the last time you took a walk through an old forest, snorkeled a reef, observed animals interact with their environment, or even just sat outside and watched a late summer storm blow in as I used to do as a kid in rural Oklahoma. Did you just “see” or did you think about the story happening around you. …and no I’m not talking about how you are going to tell people about what you did on Instagram or TikTok, I’m talking about nature’s own story that you were bearing witness to. Chances are you didn’t. But that is where I want to spend today. The reason I want to go there is because as we go further into the season, I want you to think about today’s episode. I want you to go beyond just listening to me ramble. Think beyond the research papers and my own words and open your eyes and mind to story. 


Now why do we need to do this? What’s the point Brian… Right? The point is that teaching ourselves to see and understand these stories makes us more effective communicators as Fischer argued 35 years ago. And we need to be more effective because look at where we are at today? According to Yale’s program on climate change communication. Their latest global survey found that the VAST majority of people in 108 out of 110 countries surveyed were worried about the real and or perceived risks associated with Climate Change. I’m not talking about if people understand it is in fact anthropogenic in nature, rather just if they are worried about the associated risks. More than 9 out of ten people in Mexico, Portugal, Chile, Puerto Rico, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Panama, Peru and Columbia all said they are worried. Here in the US almost 7 out of every 10 people are worried about the risks associated with Climate Change - yet here we are. The largest climate spending package in US history just got signed into law and there was not a single Republican vote for it. I’m not trying to be political here - we are a science show - NOT a political one, but you need to think about this disconnect. Representatives in the US, the largest historical emitter of CO₂ and the 3rd largest currently, were all duly elected by their various districts and states… all 535 of them. Their job is to represent their constituents. Yet while 65% of Americans are worried about Climate Change, 77% think we should fund renewables, and 72% believe we should regulate CO₂ as a pollutant - not a single Republican voted for the bill. It passed perfectly along party lines. So what gives? Well, while science has become politicized here - don’t get me started as I try to keep my opinions out of this show, but politicizing science is no different than making math a political issue - but partial fault - partial - lies with us… the communicators, scientists, and activists. 


How is this the communicators fault you may ask? The fault lies with us because we didn’t play to our audience - think of standing up and giving the St. Crispin’s Day speech from Henry the 5th to an audience at a Sponge Bob convention. Sure there might be one or two that like it, but for the most part - even if you do it in Sponge Bob’s voice (god help me if I get a video of someone doing that) - you are missing the mark. For those of us involved in the climate fight, we need to be better at discussing what we do with others. People aren’t evolved to make decisions beyond their own lifetimes rather we evolved to be cautious about the sound in the bush over there. That is why, while all parents care about their children, most make sacrifices & decisions that benefit them today, not 20, 30, 50 years from now. That’s just not how we are wired genetically. What then can sway people if speaking of their children’s health and well being doesn’t work?… well my friend, you’ve tuned in to the right place because I’ll tell you. What moves the dial is stories. Recently I sat down for an exclusive interview with Bill Weir - widely viewed as THE most knowledgable news correspondent on Climate Change out there. When I asked him my opening question, he answered it not with a direct answer, but with a story. I was suddenly intrigued… interested… invested in what was coming next. 


So how do we do that with Climate Change, biodiversity loss, and natural systems such that folks can truly understand the need to address the most existential threat humanity has ever faced. Well we start by teaching ourselves to see the stories happening around us and to understand the complexity of the systems that surround us. Politics by nature is divisive, but stories… stories can bridge divides, stories can teach, and stories are MUCH easier to communicate than legislative actions - I mean seriously while scientific papers can be dry to many, have you ever tried readying an actual bill from the US congress? But I digress, so today I’m going to tell you three stories. They aren’t my stories - rather they are nature’s stories and through them we can not only see how disturbances in those systems can have massive implications, but also how you can spark something in someone else’s mind when you share them (which, I have a feeling you will).


Let’s start with one you may or may not already know.   Let’s start with the wolves of Yellowstone.


What if I told you that wolves can change the course of rivers and INCREASE bear populations. Hard to believe? Well let me tell you the story of how this is true. Yellowstone, while established as the WORLD’s first national park in 1872, it lay in the way of westward expansion in the US - especially of ranchers. In order to protect livestock, predator controls were pretty widespread - in other words, hunting, poisoning, and trapping. While this included cougars and other top predators, wolves were the main target. Even within the park boundaries this occurred. Just between 1914 and 1926, 136 wolves were killed inside Yellowstone National Park. By the end of 1926, the wolf packs were gone. During this time deer and elk were considered “desirable species” and incredibly enough were even fed by park rangers during harsh winters. As you can imagine, populations exploded. Without predatory pressure, the elk could graze lazily on berries, grasses and especially young trees like poplars & willows growing along the banks of the many creeks streams and rivers that flow through the area. Without the vegetation, the animals & birds dependent on them left. Creeks washed away increasing amounts of soil and started to meander. All because one species had been removed. But what started to happen once wolves were reintroduced in 1995 - some 70 years after being exterminated within the park? Well, the predatory pressure on the elk increased and they no longer hung out by the water’s edge. This allowed the poplars and willows to grow (which they do rapidly - up to ~3 feet a season) along with grasses and other vegetation at the rivers edge. This stabilized the riverbanks and tree dependent species returned - this included the beaver (which love poplars & willow btw) and they built damns creating pools where fish and amphibians thrived - in turn even bringing back bird populations. Pretty incredible huh? But what about the bears Brian? You said the wolves coming back actually increased their populations. How the hell does that work? Interestingly enough, the elk spent less time grazing in the open meadows and in turn spent less time overgrazing on wild berries that bears depend on in the fall. As a result of the wolf reintroduction - bear populations increased in the park & overall became healthier. Amazing isn’t it. The simple removal of one species and the entire ecosystem can change. This is what science calls a… trophic cascade. Specifically a top down trophic cascade. You can see this all over - not just in Yellowstone. Its the same process by which sea otter hunting actually REDUCES kelp forests & coral reefs are destroyed when sharks are removed. Basically, anywhere we humans said “I want or don’t want that” we screwed things up.


So the next time you speak on biodiversity loss - don’t think of the technical aspects when you communicate - tell the story I just told you and people will find it much easier to support policies that preserve biodiversity instead of ones that threaten it. 


Now for another story - this time about trees themselves. Instead of calmly walking through a forest, did you ever think about all the interactions around you? What if I told you that trees can can communicate, feed each other and that you can even find traces of salmon… yeah the fish within them. Call shenanigans? Understandably so, but alas it’s true so let me open your mind to that tree out of your window or the forest around the path you walked last weekend. 


Let’s start with communication. We have known for a while now that trees can communicate over distances through the release of chemicals. Should you ever have the chance to watch a giraffe eating leaves on the open savanna, you can be assured they will only graze on a tree for a few minutes and then will always move upwind. Why? Well when the tree “feels” - yes feels the giraffe eating it’s leaves, it releases compounds that make its leaves taste bitter - specifically by increasing tannin as well as giving off ethylene into the air to warn other trees.. Any tree that receives this message will in turn start to produce these bitter compounds preemptively. So to avoid this, giraffes will almost always walk upwind. However, as I mentioned, that story is not new… but what is just on the cutting edge of science is understanding the mycelium or fungal formations within a forest that connect directly to the roots of trees and other plants. This amazing system is called the mycorrhizal network. This network can transfer water, carbon, nitrogen, nutrients, and minerals between any connected plants and allow those in favorable conditions can actually support other connected plants growing in areas with less favorable conditions. Gives a whole new perspective to the giving tree doesn’t it? Now the most incredible part of this network is when you sketch it out, it looks near identical to our own neural networks. Now you might be thinking, “Sure Brian it may look like a brain, but its just plants - they can’t think… right?” Well my friend, this is where it gets really weird. According to the world’s leading ecologist on plant communication, Dr Suzanne Simard, they have actually found neurotransmitters flowing through this network. You heard me, they have found glutamate moving from tree to tree and glutamate is one of our own neurotransmitters. So do they think as we think… that’s an incredible question that we are just starting to unfold. So the next time you walk through the woods and contemplate the trees around you, know just under your boot there is a communication network that just may be contemplating you. 


Have I creeped you out enough? Well one more snippet in this story (and actually I think we’ll have to do a full show own this later in the season), but while the the last knowledge bomb may have given you a chill, now I’m gonna blow your mind. In the Pacific Northwest of North America, most of us are familiar with the iconic salmon runs as they race upriver to spawn and then die. This annual run is a feast for the local fauna. Black and brown bears line the streams catching the salmon to build up their own fat reserves for winter. In the midst of this feast, many a salmon head or bones are left laying along the riverbanks and streams. Within the discarded carcass, is a far from insignificant amount of nitrogen - a wonderful natural fertilizer. This is consumed (in a way) by trees as the carcass breaks down and is absorbed through the roots with the help of the mycelium we just discussed. But here is the incredible part - according to a molecular analysis by Dr. Scott Gende & Dr. Thomas Quinn upwards of 70% of the nitrogen in vegetation growing along those streams is from salmon… 70%! You are likely thinking, “Yeah Brian, that makes sense, but we can’t actually KNOW it comes from salmon”. Here’s the great bit - we can & we do. You see the isotope nitrogen-15 is found almost exclusively in the ocean and thus in fish that have spent time there. So when researchers look at the nitrogen molecules within trees and find nitrogen-15 in them, they can easily trace it back to the salmon that have been consumed by the trees. So that makes us need to rethink my earlier statement that the local fauna benefit from the annual salmon runs, because the flora benefits directly as well. Considering that the salmon already comes with a dose of sea salt, it just needs a little rosemary and its not to different from your own meal.


So there is your second story, that will likely make you rethink natural systems & that tree out of your window as it has a structure similar to your own neural network firing the exact same neurotransmitters, and it enjoys the nutrients of the same seafood you enjoy as well. So ask yourself this. Knowing that… how are they so different?


Ok, I promised you a third story & this one directly about Climate Change. More specifically it’s about the delicate balance our climate plays and the catastrophic effects upsetting that balance can have on our beautiful planet. This story takes place in the northeast corner of Tanzania just south of the Kenyan border. It’s here, in the shadow of one of Africa’s most active volcanoes, Ol Doinyo Lengai or mountain of god in the Maasai language that lays Lake Natron. This lake is over 1,250 km² or nearly 500 miles² and just happens to be the most corrosive body of water in the world. With a ph of 12 it is not far off from bleach and oven cleaner and the waters of the lake can easily burn bare skin. Here temperatures are routinely above 40°C and it’s not uncommon to see temperatures spike over 55°C or 131°C. Further, because of the volcanism nearby, over 20 hot springs feed the lake along with the Southern Ewaso Ng'iro River. With a depth usually no more than 3 meters, water temperatures can push 60°C. Sound like hell? You aren’t far off, but there is something special here that is vital to the survival of a species. In east Africa there are approximately 2 and a half million lesser flamingos… and they all come to this one lake - this caustic hell. To breed. Some travel thousands of miles just to be here. You see, the lake doesn’t drain to any other body of water, so it loses its volume mainly to evaporation. It is during the most intense evaporation that the middle of the lakebed is exposed as salt islands with a moat of caustic soda water surrounding them. Here on these islands, the whole of the East African lesser flamingo population breeds and lays their eggs. Why, well because of the extremely caustic nature of the lake, it forms a natural barrier to predators and the lake itself blooms red with hosts of Cyanobacteria that the flamingo eat turning not only their feathers their trademark pink, but also their eyes a blood red. Here is the perfect place for the birds to feed and hatch their young, but the conditions that make it so balance on a razors edge. You see one of the hallmarks of anthropogenic Climate Change is that of instability of and at times erratic weather conditions. At lake Nantron, that could spell disaster for the lesser flamingo. Too much rain and the lake level is not only too high for the salt islands to form but the ph changes thus reducing the food stocks for them. Too little rain and the ph gets too high and land bridges open up to the islands allowing predators to easily take advantage of the helpless chicks. Further, when you consider some fly thousands of miles to be at lake Natron at the right time each year, a simple shift in the annual weather patterns and the conditions the flamingos need no longer match up with the breeding season. 


Does this affect you… no, not directly. But what I love about this story is that it conveys the delicate balance of the choreographed play that takes place every day around us. Just the tiniest shift and the incredible natural order at lake nantron falls apart. While this story doesn’t specifically drive people to action, I find it’s a great way to get folks I speak with to think about the forces at play at a special place to them which will drive action. 


So there are your three stories. I want you to think about them, use them, or develop your own based on your own experiences and tell them. So the next time you find yourself in a conversation on the climate crisis - don’t talk about how we are at 1.2 and want to avoid hitting 1.5. Tell a story. Tell your story. Be honest and open about it and I guarantee you will change minds.


…And that wraps up another episode of South of 2 Degrees.. I know we left you with a cliff hanger last season only publishing the first half of Dr. Sylvia Earle’s interview but know we will release both parts 1 & 2 next week before we continue on with the incredible research the team has put together for you. Also this season, you can now find show notes on the website, southof2degrees.org in case you missed something and want to revisit it at your own pace. Now aside from checking out the latest information on the website, blog, Meta, linkedin, twitter, & instagram - do this for me. Tell one other person about this show in the next week, Have at least one conversation about climate change with someone else and above all, keep it south of 2 degrees.