COP28 & 2023 - a Year in Review

Join host Brian Barnes as we kick off a new season, diving straight into the climate challenges and breakthroughs of 2023 and what to expect in 2024. From COP28 to the underlying causes and research of the most impactful aspects of climate change - this episode hits it all.

So2D isn’t just talk; it’s about bringing unfiltered science into the spotlight and making sense of what it means for our planet. This season, think of us as your climate compass, guiding you through the noise with facts, insights, and a bit of fun. Tune into “S4E1 COP28” for a no-nonsense take on the climate conversation that’s as engaging as it is enlightening. Ready to get informed and inspired?

Transcript

This is So2D and I am your host Brian Barnes. It is so good to have you with us today on the only podcast dedicated to bringing unfiltered scientific research to the forefront of the climate conversation. We’ve got a wonderful season opener for you today as we look back at 2023 and forward into 2024 for both the planet and the show - so my friends, once more into the fray.

Yes Yes Yes, we are finally back after a long break and I am so excited for this season. While we have done some great things this far, I’m confident this season is gonna be a HUGE step forward. To put it another way, take everything we’ve done in the first three seasons and think of it kinda like a simple graham cracker, a bit of chocolate and a big ol marshmallow. All tasty in their own right, but add a bit of heat & but put them all together and wha-la you have that magical creation we all know as S’mores. Well, that’s what this season is going to be like - not the sticky messy bit of course, rather the magical part when you sit back and go “wow, I’m really enjoying this”. But enough about food. Let’s do a recap of 2023 and take a look at what the 2024 South of 2 Degrees season holds.

When we ended last season there was one major thing we left off with - heat and the exacerbating causes. Fascinating bit is what we discussed in May compiled directly from the scientists that studied it, got picked up by many newspapers and media centers later in the summer - one paper in Arizona basically used our show verbatim. Did they cite us, no… but that’s fine - it broadens the climate conversation which is one of our main goals. As we look back, 2023 hit researchers predictions of being the hottest year in human record, so let’s take a look back at the most notable events - including an analysis of the good, bad and ugly of COP28.

Let’s start with those forces briefly that we discussed last spring since it’s been a hot minute. For one El Niño has had a big impact and our show on it is coming in the next couple weeks so for now we’ll leave it at that. Second was the Tonga volcano. While the eruption happened on Jan 15th of 2022, the effects will be lasting for several more years. This has been an especially fun one to discuss as I’ve had a fair amount of people question this as volcanoes are often thought to ultimately have a cooling effect due to the dust and ash, not a heating one. What made this volcano unique in modern history was the fact that it was an underwater volcano that erupted with explosive force about 150 meters below the ocean surface. This sent a 300 mile wide plume of water vapor 25 miles straight up into the stratosphere according to measurements take from NASA’s Aura satellite - How much water you ask? It’s roughly equivalent to 10% of the total water volume normally in the atmosphere. Put another way, imagine the entire world population standing within a 300 mile circle and every woman, man and child tossing 18.35 liters (or 4.85 gallons) of water into the air. Now, we know from previous episodes, water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas but while it is typically short lived and regionally impactful, because of the injection into the stratosphere, it is predicted to have a global impact for several years. In fact, according to a paper published in Jan of 2023 by Jenkins et al, it had roughly a 0.035°C impact on global temperature.

Further warming came last year from the coming peak of the ~11 year solar cycle but before the climate deniers latch onto this, the impact is small and is in line with 20th century averages. Third, is the lasting impacts from cleaning up our act and by that I mean the positive/negative impact of the 2020 rule from the International Maritime organization that reduced the sulphur content in fuel by 86%. While this reduced pollution, it also reduced particulate matter (or PMs) that had been reflecting solar radiation. With the reduction we have seen an impact on temps of a few hundredths of a degree with the Carbon Brief estimating a global impact of approximately 0.05°C by 2050. So keep that in mind next time you order something that has bits made in a couple countries, assembled in a third, and then shipped to you all shiny and new in your home country. How’s that for a little climate guilt for ya? Fourth was dust clouds off of Africa - which I’ll just point you to our season closer for an explanation here as it’s super fascinating and 5th a significant reduction in sea ice temps. 

To understand why sea temperatures matter, here’s a little experiment folks can try in a region that is currently getting snow. Scrape one spot clear of snow on the blacktop, your driveway, or a road first thing in the morning (and for goodness sakes don’t do this if cars are around) and leave another bit covered. Come back just before things start to cool in the evening. The exposed bit will be warmer and will have expanded in size. Now I know you are saying “Yeah Brian, I learned that in preschool”, but here’s my point. While you learned that at a young age, I doubt you thought of it in terms of sea ice. As sea ice lessens, more ocean is exposed to direct sunlight. With the water being darker, it warms quicker and thus prevents sea ice from forming for longer. See the reinforcing feedback loop? Cool! - well not cool, but you get what I mean.

Now in addition to the afore mentioned items, 2023 in all it’s glory is summed up best by Berkeley Earth in their annual report where the note other significant points: 

• New national record high annual averages were set for an estimated 77 countries, including Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Germany, Japan, and Mexico
• Record annual average warmth occurred for both the land-average and ocean-average 
• Record warmth occurred in most ocean basins, including once-in-a-century level of warmth in the North Atlantic

In effect, 29% of the global population or 2.3 billion people experienced record high temps in 2023. Not a pretty picture is it. Well guess what folks, 2024 is likely to smash 2023, but before we dive into the future, let’s look back at COP28 and take a quick look as it was rife with both positives and negatives.

For those just getting into the climate space, COP28 stands for the 28th annual conference of parties. This is where the Paris accord was agreed to back in 2016 - you know the one that world governments continue to hold up in speeches but basically ignore with their actions… that one. Anyway, the big issue going into COP28 was three-fold and it all centered squarely around fossil fuels. First it was held in the United Arab Emirates. Why does it matter who hosts? Well the UAE is a petro state or one that derives a significant portion of its revenue from fossil fuels. That said, tracking down an exact percent is tricky. According to the UAE’s U.S. Embassy, 30% of its revenue is derived from hydrocarbons while the International Monetary Fund estimated it to be roughly 60% in its 2023 report. Either way - its hard to talk about reducing the impacts of climate change from such a stage - I mean imagine if you spoke on reducing forest fires in an old growth forest and then after you spoke tossed a lit cigarette into the dry underbrush. Kinda kills your message and makes you look full of it doesn’t it?

The second issue was the number of fossil fuel lobbyists that had access to the conference. At COP27 there was a huge uproar because 636 fossil fuel representatives were present. Well at COP28 that increased by nearly three fold to 2,456. And those were just the ones that were known. Sad right? Unfortunately it proved a bit difficult to find out which countries those lobbyists were from (thats not a phone call or email folks like to answer LOL). However, let me pose this to you. The reason they are “officially” permitted to attend by the UNFCCC is to allow for an inclusive approach and provide a platform for all voices. What do you think? I believe we are naive if we think putting negotiations on addressing anthropogenic climate change in the hands of these folks will benefit anything but their own bottom lines. …and why should they care, they’ll be dead before the worst of it and will have made their money - ahh humanity - we truly struggle to see beyond our own life and think generationally. 

Finally, and most significantly the chair of the conference was Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber - the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company or ADNOC. While he spoke about a transition to clean energy, his true colors came out during the conference when he said 

“Please, help me, show me a road map for a phaseout of fossil fuels that will allow for sustainable socioeconomic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves”

And 

That there was “no science” that supported the need to phase out fossil fuels in order to achieve the Paris goal of limiting warming to no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.

Now, while I disagree vehemently with this and it is completely infuriating, take his perspective (as hard as that is) for a moment. Before the commercial production of oil in the 1960’s Dubai was a small and fairly insignificant trading hub outside of a small regional economy primarily known for pearl diving and fishing. The transition to a petro state has allowed it to transform from those humble aspects into a city of wealth - playing a global role in finance, technology and real estate which also gives rise to tourism. So from Al Jaber’s limited personal perspective, sure moving away from fossil fuels means a significant regression from the thriving metropolis that Dubai is today without drastic changes. Does that make it right for the world? Hell no. But from a man thinking purely of himself and his country - well I kinda get it. A person who feels cornered will always fight - even if they are blatantly in the wrong as Al Jaber is.

So on to the actual conference - Let’s start with the good. It actually began with a bang and a significant one at that. On the very first day of the conference a historic agreement was made on the operationalization of a loss and damage fund, effectively a slush fund to assist developing countries cope with the effects of climate change caused by wealthier nations. While this is an important step we have been long fighting for, it’s only a piece and is treating the symptoms, not the cause. What makes this fascinating is that it happened so quickly on day one. When was the last time you had a conference that decided something critical in the first 5% of the time. Seriously, it takes a far from insignificant time for just my wife and I to agree on schedules of who is picking up kids when in what car and at what time. …and thats two of us that are damn near aligned in lock step. Now try that but add in three quarters of a billion dollars and 200 plus people all from diverse backgrounds. Don’t get me wrong, its a huge step if countries that pledged money actually follow through but there was and still is concern that it was a pre-negotiated agreement solely to be able to give Al Jaber and the UAE a “win” so to speak and stifle criticism of their hosting.

Another big aspect was a move by Columbia. Really? You ask… actually yes. Columbia became the first Latin American country calling for a Fossil Fuel Non-proliferation treaty. It’s a significant move that will set the stage & precedence for other nations to follow. 

Further, this was the first COP to include a Food Day that resulted in 154 nations signing a declaration for Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action. This is significant because it marked the first move to formally integrate agriculture and food systems into a country’s NDC’s or nationally determined contributions.

Now let’s go rapid fire on some of the pledges that weren’t as broadly reported on but were still important nonetheless.

1. Boost to renewables and nuclear: This set a new target to tripple installed capacity to at least 11 terawatts by 2030, boost global energy efficiency and 22 nations endorsed an agreement to triple nuclear.
2. Brazil helped launch a new fund called Tropical Forests Forever. This has a goal of ~$250B to provide finance to help maintain trees in 80 tropical countries
3. After a landmark deal at another COP (yeah there are a bunch of different ones but thats not the point so I won’t confuse you) agreed to a nature deal to protect the rich biodiversity of our planet, COP28 - the climate one - formally recognized climate change posed a threat to biodiversity protection (I know I know - you are probably saying “well of course” but remember these are governments - they are not nearly as quick thinking as you are). In the statement they said “continued loss and degradation of nature increases climate vulnerability”. Again amazing its taken 28 years to get to this moment.
4. There was the first ever “health” day at COP28 where an agreement was made by 123 signatories to formally recognize the connection between climate change, green house gases and global health.
5. Finally there were agreements to cut emissions from both heavy industry and refrigerators and air conditioners. Seriously these aren’t worth diving into here and I doubt you want to know more anyway.

Now for those who followed the conference closely you are probably thinking I left out two of the biggest things - well I didn’t, I was just saving them for now as while they are highlights for sure, they also kick off the bad of the conference.

First is the global methane pledge. This was an amazing agreement (started at COP26) at least on the surface, to cut methane emissions (before this almost all focus had been on carbon dioxide). As you know from several past episodes of South of 2 Degrees, methane or the greenwashed name ‘natural gas” is a powerful albeit short lived GHG. 155 countries signed up to commit to reduce methane emissions by 30% in the next 6 years to include a reduction flaring - that’s the giant flame you see at natural gas facilities when you drive by. However, why this is seen as leaking into the bad of the conference though (see what I did there) is its economically beneficial to cut leaks as they reduce profits and by most measures, the 30% reduction could easily be achieved by just stopping those leaks …so it in truth does NOT require any reduction in production. 

Now circling back to the beginning of our conversation, the crux of the conference and what could set the stage for COP28 to be looked back on as a turning point was a global agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. Amazing right? Well, the optimist in me (yes you can still be an optimist after years of dealing with anthropogenic climate change and humanity’s underwhelming response) anyway, the optimist wants to sing in the rain about this. It’s absolutely amazing we have finally crossed this bridge. The researcher in me though has some concerns. The reason why I say that is while the agreement was the first ever at a COP to recognize the role of fossil fuels - again yeah, it took nearly three decades for this to be agreed upon - it was rife with loopholes that could potentially undermine the entire thing. The main bit is that the text failed to include the term phaseout and instead said “transition”. This suggests that fossil fuels still have a significant role to play over the next decades and allows for workarounds and political posturing without real action. Yes the goal is still net zero by 2050, but if you think thats a good idea, be sure to check out the Net Zero episode from last season.

So there you have it, a fast look back at 2023 and COP28. What about 2024 you ask? Well, thats a great question and let’s dive into it. From a global perspective 2024 will be hot. Big surprise right? Now I’m saying 2024 is gonna make us wish for 2023 temps. Could I be wrong, sure, but if you look at data from NOAA on global sea surface temperatures you’ll see a disturbing trend. For context here, beginning on March 14, of last year, SST’s started to surpass all recorded temps. This trend continued throughout the rest of the year, never coming back below the hottest year on record. In fact on August 25th 2023 it was 0.3°C hotter than the highest august temperature. So how does that compare to 2024? Well, this far we have been bouncing between 0.4° and 0.5°C HOTTER than 2023. Yeah, and it’s only mid February. What about air temps? Well, when you use 1979-2000 as a baseline, last year at this time a global air temp anomaly was sitting at 0.6°C. This year, that’s 1.2°C - so yeah - this year is gonna be hot.

Now what about the show? What does the 2024 season hold for us? Well, we have a lot of great content coming your way. This season we’ll look at El Niño (as promised), break down how shared resources work, deep dive into how AI is being used in the science communication space and talk to one of the leading minds in it’s research, bring you another collaboration interview with Cait Bagby over on the Guilty Greenie podcast, and dive into what we teased at the end of last season - an original literature review and interpretation of how climate communication can actually drive action - something I have been working on for the last 7 months. Oh… and a lot more. 

Now I want to end with a quote from from the Strangest Loop that I read over the break and have since adopted it as a motto. No matter if you are thinking of environmental work, struggling to write a book, have a hard workout or a life - changing event that needs doing, I think you’ll find this as helpful as I did.

Preparing to do the thing isn't doing the thing.

Scheduling time to do the thing isn't doing the thing.

Making a to-do list for the thing isn't doing the thing.

Telling people you're going to do the thing isn't doing the thing.

Messaging friends who may or may not be doing the thing isn't doing the thing.

Writing a banger tweet about how you're going to do the thing isn't doing the thing.

Hating on yourself for not doing the thing isn't doing the thing. Hating on other people who have done the thing isn't doing the thing. Hating on the obstacles in the way of doing the thing isn't doing the thing.

Fantasizing about all of the adoration you'll receive once you do the thing isn't doing the thing.

Reading about how to do the thing isn't doing the thing. Reading about how other people did the thing isn't doing the thing. Reading this essay isn't doing the thing.

The only thing that is doing the thing is doing the thing.

Now whatever it is sitting there waiting for you to do it in life, just get out and do the thing. As for me, well, the next episode will drop in two weeks, But for now,

That wraps up another episode of South of 2 Degrees… To each of you listening in the nearly 100 countries where we have active listeners, thank you - you continue to inspire us here at South of 2 Degrees with your emails and all the work you are doing to personally fight anthropogenic climate change. Keep those emails coming as we always welcome your feedback and remember you can find show notes and direct links to all the papers we talk about on the show over on the website at Southof2Degrees.org. Now aside from checking out the latest information on the website, blog, Meta, linkedin, X, & instagram - do this for me. Tell one other person about this show in the next week, Have at least one conversation about climate change with someone else and above all, keep it south of 2 degrees.