Splash Considerations Ep. 21: Hindsight is 20/20 (feat. Matthew Knauer)

On Episode 21 of Splash Considerations, Justice is joined by prominent member of Giants Twitter Matthew Knauer (@matthewk36711) to discuss the one-year anniversary of the Rafael Devers trade. Justice and Matthew discuss how Devers has performed as a whole, how he's performed this season and the team's direction since the trade. 

Additional Reading

One year later, how have SF Giants’ fared since acquiring Rafael Devers in shocking blockbuster?

Reliever Winn hits SF Giants’ injured list with elbow strain after heavy use

SF Giants’ Roupp explains why he wrote Bible verse on Pride Night cap

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:28

Welcome to another episode of Splash Considerations. My name is Justice Del Santo, San Francisco Giants B reporter for the Bay Area News Group, San Jose Mercury News, East Bay Times, whatever you want to call us, as long as you read, as long as you subscribe. And speaking of subscribe, subscribe to the YouTube channel, follow us on Apple, follow us on Spotify. A lot of things in this world cost a lot of money, but subscribe and the following, those things remain free 99 in just a moment of your time. And in this episode, I'm going to be joined by friend of the program, Matthew Canower, to discuss the one-year anniversary of the Raphael Devers trade. We talk about Devers' performance as a giant as a whole. We talk about his performance this season. We talk about some of the things that we're going to be looking for with Devers as he continues to age, as this contract continues to age, uh, the team as a whole, of course, and just kind of touch upon this trade from all angles. Of course, talk about the Kyle Harrison element of this trade as well. And I think the one thing that me and Matthew both wanted to emphasize that obviously hindsight with this trade is 50-50. I think you're not really going to find a lot of people if you go back that maybe weren't, you know, fans of the trade. I think there were concerns with the trade. But, you know, I think that's the one thing we want to emphasize is that yes, we can sit here right now and say that the trade has not aged well and probably will not continue to age well given how things have trended. Uh, but there is a lot of time left. And again, hindsight is 50-50. But uh, before getting into that conversation, which was a lot of fun, um I obviously have to talk about the story of the weekend, one that hasn't just, you know, kind of broken containment here in the Bay Area, it's become a national story. And that was how things unfolded uh when the Giants hosted their annual Pride Night. And if you're listening, you probably know how that's unfolded up to this point. But to provide uh a summary for you, for those of you who may be out of the loop, uh the Giants hosted their annual Pride Night on Friday. And for Pride Night, they had these special caps that had all the elements, all the colors of the Pride Progress flag, that being the color of the trans flag, as well as uh the regular Pride Rainbow Flag. So all of them, it kind of they were stacked in place of where the traditional orange SF would be. And there were three pitchers, those being Landon Roop, JT Brewbaker, and Ryan Walker, who all wrote Bible verses on their caps. They were all versions of Genesis uh chapter 9, verses 12 through 16. I think maybe Brewbaker's was 12 through 15, uh, talking about, and uh the way that they describe it, it talks about God's covenant, Noah's Ark, things of that nature. And then uh there was one pitcher entirely who just did not wear the cap entirely, that being Sam Hench's. And uh in the days, you know, the day of, and then the subsequent next day, uh, had an opportunity to talk with Rube about it, and as well as Walker, uh and Brewbaker and Henches, and they all provided their explanations. They all said that the decision did not come from a place of hate. They were expressing that this is what they believe. And I think the one quote of all the quotes uh that stuck out the most was uh when we asked Henches about his decision to not wear it. Uh he said, and I don't have the quote right in front of me, but it was something to the to the effect of, you know, as a Christian, it's just something uh I morally, you know, don't support. It doesn't come from a place of hate, but you know, that's that's kind of his rationale. Um the one thing I do want to note is that there was a good amount of beanies that were worn, you know, in the Giants dugout on Friday night as well. And, you know, you you can you know could say you know it was a cold night in San Francisco, but there were not a lot of, and I'm not gonna single out anyone in the dugout, but there were there were a decent amount of players who were not wearing the pride caps in uh the dugout as well. So, you know, this kind of goes beyond just the four players that are kind of highlighted here. But you know, this is gonna be something that, you know, going forward, if the Giants don't want this to be a distraction, while they still do want to have a Pride Night or a Pride Day and celebrate the LGBTQIA plus community, um, this is gonna have to be something they figure out. Uh and I know that's a really crude way of saying it, but you know, if they want to celebrate, you know, the community without this being a distraction, it is something that there are going to be have to be conversations had uh within the organization. And Major League Baseball actually did release a statement today uh effectively saying, you know, that you know you're not allowed to write anything on your caps at all, in particular. They um I think there was an initial statement, but basically they were affirming or confirming rather that you know you can't write anything at all. Like that's they were warned because that's against the uniform bylaws. But again, to kind of put a bow on this conversation before diving into the conversation that I had with Matthew, uh, I obviously have a lot of friends who are of the community. I have a lot of family that is of the community, and just in the conversations that I've had with them, uh, it has been a lot of disappointment. You can say what you want about a Pride Night, a Pride Day, and how, you know, is this I think the way that Cole Kuyper actually mentioned on Giants Talk, it's kind of like rainbow capitalism in a sense. Um, but there was just a general sense of disappointment within, you know, people in my circle that I have talked with, um, people that I've seen on Twitter, you know, that's kind of where things are at with uh the Giants uh in regards to how things unfolded with uh Pride Knight. And, you know, it's you know, again, very unfortunate in that the Giants have become a national headline, albeit for the wrong reasons. So uh that's kind of that as far as you know everything that happened over the past weekend. Uh, but let's talk, let's transition now to the conversation that I had with Matthew about the one-year anniversary of the Rafael Devers trade. I'm now joined once again by friend of the program, rising sophomore at UCLA, and a must-follow on Giants Twitter, Matthew Kenauer. Matthew, how are you doing?

SPEAKER_01 6:34

Good. Thanks for having me, Justice. How are you?

SPEAKER_00 6:36

Doing well, doing well. Glad to have you on again. And I do have to ask, you know, the last time we talked, you were ramping up the throw-in progression. So I guess first off, how did the first year at UCLA go and just where are you at on throwing?

SPEAKER_01 6:48

Uh, it was awesome. So cool. I wrote from the Daily Bro and got to cover what was the first uh wire-to-wire number one national seed college baseball. UCLA had an awesome year. Unfortunately, got out in the first round against St. Mary's in the uh college playoffs, but it was overall an awesome season throwing wise. Uh, rehab has been really good from Tommy John and uh hoping to throw my first bullpen actually later this week. There we go. There we go.

SPEAKER_00 7:15

Are you gonna try to walk on as you think that's a possibility?

SPEAKER_01 7:18

We'll see. It's such a tough school. Baseball team is so good. But um, I'm interning this summer for the Walnut Creek Cradads over in the California Collegiate League and uh hoping I can get a few innings for them.

SPEAKER_00 7:30

Shout out if you happen to be free this summer, go go check out Friend of the Program, Matthew Kenauer. Uh, how did Rock Chelowski look uh since you had an opportunity to watch him, you know, as you mentioned, wire to wire with number UCLA being the number one seed?

SPEAKER_01 7:42

It's a pretty special player. Um, I mean, the first thing that kind of stands out is just the general kind of charisma, and he is just such a baseball player. He's such a leader on the team. He's an incredible defender. He runs hard, he does every kind of little thing that you want your shortstop, your captain of the team to be doing. And on top of that, he's a really good hitter, made a ton of contact, hit the ball really hard. Um, I know some other guys are kind of rising up the ranks and questioning whether Rock will be the one-one. Um, and you know, the hitting output was pretty similar to his sophomore year. I know scouts are, you know, kind of looking to see a little bit of improvements, but overall, just uh a really good baseball player who unfortunately will have just about zero chance to fall with the Giants at number four.

SPEAKER_00 8:30

I know that I know that's been floating around a little bit, and it would it would take a lot of things, it would take a lot of things happening in order for Mr. Rock Chalowski to drop from you know the potential number one overall pick to number four. But we're not here to talk about Rock today. Maybe once we get uh into July, maybe we'll talk about him uh a little more and some of the other shortstop prospects for the 2026 draft. But today we're gonna talk about the Rafael Devers trade. It's been one year since the trade happened, one of the craziest days among a lot of crazy days that I've had since being uh on this Giants beat, since the Giants traded Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, James Tibbs the third, and Jose Bayo to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for Rafael Devers, and things haven't gone great in the year that the Giants uh have had Devers as a player. They've been 69-93. They sold it last year's trade deadline, they fired Bob Melvin, they brought in Tony Vitello. They're currently 29-43, they're careening towards one of the worst seasons in recent memory. Devers has been fine, but he hasn't been the same guy that we've seen at the peak of his powers uh in Boston. As our columnister Kurtenbach said, uh I think it was either earlier today or yesterday. There isn't a living soul that wouldn't have made that trade at the time, even with some of the you know potential for you know that contract to not look great down the stretch, but there aren't a lot of people that wouldn't take that trade back right now. And obviously, we can't redo time. This is the timeline that we live in, as Tony LeVitel likes to say. So one year in, and you can go whichever direction you want to go with this, Matthew. What are your thoughts on this trade?

SPEAKER_01 10:03

I mean, you said it, hindsight's 2020. Uh it's pretty tough. You know, we have the you know vision right now that unfortunately looks pretty ugly. What stood out to me as pretty glaring is how kind of stuck they are from a roster construction standpoint, given that you know their top prospect, Bryce Eldridge, is a first-base DH type, and so is Rafael Devers. And ideally, Eldridge is around for the next decade. And you know, given given Devers' contract, he will likely be two. Um, and there's been a movement around baseball to really remove the traditional everyday DH. Teams like to kind of rotate guys, whether it's you know, a lefty's on the mound and they want to platoon a right-handed hitter, or use the DH spot as you know a place to rotate guys, give days of rest. Um, so it really kind of locks up the Giants. And we've seen with Casey Schmidt, you know, now he's had to move to the outfield. He was playing DH earlier in the season, um, but Eldridge is kind of rotated in there. And so it just kind of gives them, puts them in a spot where they lack a lot of flexibility. Um, the other thing with Devers is that's just been apparent is he cannot hit the fastball. He is consistently, consistently late. Um, 189 right now against the fastball with a 42% whiff rate. Um, and it's really hard to do damage and you know, do what he's supposed to do, hit the ball into McCovey Cove if you're consistently that late. The bat speed has started to decline, which you know worries me a little bit. Um, and you know, with eight years still left on the deal, it's it's not looking too pretty.

SPEAKER_00 11:45

And a lot of deferred money too. Well, not a lot of deferred money, but it's gonna be a while until that contract is paid off. I think it's like 2042, which I don't know, I don't know if we're still gonna be doing podcasts again in 2042. I don't know if podcasts are gonna be a thing in 2042 or whatever year uh that that ends. But let I I do want to kind of zoom in on you know the fastball issues in particular, the bat speed, some of the under the metro, under the hood stuff. But let's uh let's provide a little context. Let's provide some numbers as to just where Rafi is. I've been in particular since joining the Giants. He's played exactly 162 games, kind of a perfect you know, 162 full season with the Giants. 235 batting average as a whole, 323 on base, 438 slug, 29 homers, 117 OPS plus, 113 WRC plus. Among 140 qualified hitters, 83rd and on base, 68th in slugging, 75th in WOBA, 80 68th in WRC plus, 114th uh in war, and to zoom into this season in particular because he's been roughly a league average hitter, depending on which you whether you go OPS plus or WRC plus 235 banning average, 293 on base, not even getting on base a third of the time. Uh-huh. 413 slugging nine homers. MLB leading 21 doubles. Don't forget that Matthew leads the league, leads all the baseball in doubles. Uh 101 OPS plus 95 WRC plus. He's still hitting the ball hard, but the walk rate has been something that's just cratered. Uh, and then you mentioned it, the four scene fastballs uh in particular. So when you look at Rafi as in his first full year as a whole, or if you want to just kind of isolate to his first full season this season, just what are the things that really jump out to you? And I know you mentioned the fastballs, just that are maybe an area of concern, maybe something that you that you thought he was going to excel in that he just hasn't so far.

SPEAKER_01 13:34

Yeah, so baseball savant just came out with a new statistic, um, some bat tracking metrics um and missed distance. And essentially what it's saying is, you know, when the ball crosses the plate and the hitter is swinging, how much do they miss the how much does their bat miss the ball by? And it also has timing and it says how late is the bat in relation to the ball. And Rafael Devers against for seam fastballs, uh, he's late 37% of the time, which ranks uh 42nd worst among 391 hitters. So he's consistently late against fastballs, which is, you know, really, you know, you want him to be on time to the pull side, um, you know, and doing damage into McCovey Cove. And when he's, you know, fouling these pitches off late or swinging and missing over fastballs, you know, over the heart of the plate, that's kind of an issue. And right now his zone contact percentage is 71%. At times in his career earlier, he's been able to live with that because he's been patient, but the chase rate now is up to 30%. Um, and so it's kind of this combination of a few different factors. Um, you know, his ground ball rate is still around league average, so it's not like you know, he's not pulling the ball in the air spectacularly. Um, so all these kind of different factors are combining to where, you know, the the production is just not close to where the peak was two or three years ago. And it's not that it's not in there. We've seen it at times. We've seen some of the mammoth swings and the power that he has, we've seen stretches. We saw it at the end of last season, but he's not really able to do it consistently right now.

SPEAKER_00 15:10

Yeah, and we saw it in May as well. I don't have the the numbers from May pulled up, but I think the OPS was close to a thousand. If not, it was in the high to mid 900s, and it was coming after a very bad kind of March April when you mash that together. And we all kind of knew like this is you know, that March April that wasn't gonna be the ever's that we saw consistently. Um but to your point, like we just haven't seen you know one of those extended stretches where he's really carried an offense for not just a month, but you know, two or even three months. Like we've seen it in spurts, but it hasn't been uh a prolonged amount of time. And to the you know, to the element of the swings, like we saw it a lot that first month of the season and started to see a little more. Like the swings are still very competitive. Like when you just watch him, like you can tell like he's putting a lot into these swings, and you could tell early on, like he was just uh missing them. And then he, you know, in May he started to you know make contact with some of those pitches, started to send balls out of the ballpark, but just hasn't been there as much in June. He's been solid in June, but just hasn't been there as much to the degree that it was uh in May. And to kind of provide some numbers into what you were saying is in regards to the forcing fastballs, you know, this year he has a negative four run value on forcing fastballs, and for comparison, the last three years it was 13, uh 13 and 10. And you know, this has been a point that was made a lot, and and I made it in the kind of one-year anniversary story is the pitchers are just attacking him more, right? And when you look at the amount of pitches that he's seeing in zone, it's the most that he's seen since he was a rookie. And to the point that you made, you know, previous years when they would attack him in the zone, he would make them pay. And he's not making them pay as much. And I can only imagine that if this trend kind of continues where you know they're pounding the zone and he's still missing them, I think we're just gonna continue to see more stuff in the zone, especially for scene fastballs as those struggles continue, or if they continue.

SPEAKER_01 16:58

And I think what's important to note is how high the threshold has to be for him to succeed as a you know slow first base DH type. Now, he really has to hit to be a valuable baseball player, especially with that money, you know, that that he's been allocated. He has to be a pretty much an 850 plus OPS player to bring any kind of value. And like you said, floating around league average right now, you know, he still has that natural talent to to float and survive as a hitter, even though the kind of underlying process right now is really poor. Um, but that has that underlying process really has to improve um because there's not much room for error in this game.

SPEAKER_00 17:41

Yeah, and you alluded to it too, and this is a good chance to get into like the roster flexibility of it all or like the roster composition of it all, and kind of just looking outward, is that Devers is currently 29. He's gonna be 30 in October. We actually share the same birthday, although I'm not sending him any happy birthday text messages. And 30 is a big number when it comes to the aging curve in regards to baseball. And like you mentioned, like the bass speed has been down, you know, this season. Well, it has been down over the last couple seasons. I think in 24 it was like 73 miles an hour, 25, or not 2023, it was uh 73, 2024 was 72. This year, and last year it's been like 71. So it's not gonna continue to go up, but like this is just kind of the reality of that aging curve. And you know, you've got uh Bryce Eldridge to consider it as well, and it's kind of a very inflexible roster when you consider there's Adamus is kind of locked in at short, Chapman's locked in at third, Zhung Hu's locked into one of those corner outfield positions. And so so what do you kind of envision? Is it just you know what how they go about this? Like how this dynamic between Eldridge and Devers works. You know, it seems at some point that Eldridge is gonna have to just be the first baseman primarily, and they're gonna have to transition Devers into that DH spot as much as Devers likes to play the field, but it's a very it's an imperfect marriage, and you know, this is kind of just the reality that the Giants are facing right now.

SPEAKER_01 19:05

Yeah, it's tough. I mean, uh I mentioned earlier you really do not want to have you know your your first base and DH clogged up, both of them, because that that you you lack the flex flexibility. If Adamez, Chapman, Lee, any of these guys want a day off, they can't play. They can't DH. Um, and I I think you said it, Eldridge needs to be playing a lot of first base. He's a young player who can't be just pigeonholed into a DH role. It's important for young players to play the field um because you know, just taking three or four at bats every day and watching the rest of the game is a tough task. So, like you said, then that kind of puts Devers in a not everyday DH role, but a very often DH role. Um, and that that really hinders the Giants. And you know, the the news came out yesterday that they're potentially shopping these guys. Who knows how many suitors they'll have and what kind of money they'd have to you know take on to be able to ship any of the the squad away. But it's tough. This is the situation you put yourself into when you don't develop your homegrown talent, and then you have to, you know, make up for it and overpay on the free agent market consistently. Um, and we've seen it, you know, the the Chapman Adama's lead deals, they look good at times, but you know, these long-term free agent deals, they really kind of pigeonhole you, and and now you have you know six or seven positions that are solidified for the next five years and you have a lot of money locked down.

SPEAKER_00 20:36

Yeah, and so the point about Devers and you know the possibility of trading in, because I know a lot of fans have you know that that you know, you just go to Twitter, search trade and devers, you're gonna see a lot of fans that that want him dealt. And you know, I don't have every single you know $300 million deal pulled up right in front of me, but the amount of times that somebody that signed on to that amount of money has been traded twice, not just once, twice. I'm pretty sure it's zero. Like, like think about the guys that have made that much, like Harper, Machado, Trout. Like especially as you get older and those contracts, because this is kind of just the cost of doing business. Like, in order to get these guys at the pre the rate that they're gonna command, you gotta get deal that money. And no, it's different with the Giants because they traded for him. But it's a fact of the matter that once you start getting up there, or once these players start getting up there in age, you know, those contracts aren't gonna look as great. Like maybe there's a return on investment early, but you know, once you get later in their career, and we're seeing it with like Machado right now. Like there maybe three years ago, would someone have wanted to trade for Machado take on that contract? Sure. But right now, uh no one would take that money.

SPEAKER_01 21:46

And we've we've seen in free agency in recent years, teams are kind of straying away from these, you know, it was really popular in the kind of early 2020s was this long term mega extension, you know, 10 plus years, 300 plus million, and teams. Do not seem to be as prone to just toss out these long-term extensions because, you know, they saw, you know, Xander Bogartz is kind of an example that stood out to me as this dude is locked up for a decade and so he's almost 40 playing shortstop for the Padres. Um, and so, you know, these long term, sorry, my dog is going crazy. I don't know if you can hear that.

SPEAKER_00 22:22

The dog got takes. The dog got takes.

SPEAKER_01 22:25

But yeah, these long-term deals in free agency are becoming less popular, and the Giants are are stuck with an unfortunate one right now.

SPEAKER_00 22:33

Yeah, I mean, we just saw it with Danzby Swanson with the Chicago Cubs, both at Wrigley and you know, Oracle Park. Danzby Swanson's he signed a big one of those big deals. I think it was like maybe $10 million less than what Adam is got, maybe 20. And he's batting ninth for the Cubs. And you know, that's kind of it is the cost of doing business. Like in order to get a player like that, you're you are gonna have to make some uncomfortable decisions as far as the years, as far as the money, but you also have to kind of live with the back end of it of you know that this is kind of the the risk they run. And this is kind of why you while you're seeing fewer of these big long-term contracts, while you're seeing a lot more teams like I think Colt Emmer. Who's the the was a Cooper Pratt? Is that the yeah, Brewers? And he just got called up, it looks like. Yeah, they that's why I think we're just you're seeing a lot more of like teams that are willing to you know lock guys up early despite not even playing in the majors, because yeah, it can be a sunk cost, and we're kind of seeing that with Rafaela, or not Rafaela, who is the Kristen Campbell in Boston, where like, yeah, there's there's a risk there if that guy doesn't pan out, but if he does, the return on investment is a lot more than what you would get with like a 10, like something that Devers got.

SPEAKER_01 23:42

And I I think that's a great point you bring up because it kind of shows what teams are the strategy teams are will willing to play is you know, their top prospect who comes up at 20, 21 years old, they're willing to extend them through the six years of arbitration or three years are min, three years arbitration and a few years of free agency. So maybe, you know, the eight to nine year extension that takes them close to 30 years old, but they don't want to pay the post 30 years in free agency. And you know, that price has been 30 plus million AAV, and teams have typically been forced to pay guys until they're 36, 37, 38 years old, and they'd rather pay the upfront years. And you know, even though, like you said, might be a sunk cost early. Um, I think it's a worthy investment.

SPEAKER_00 24:27

Yeah, and for every Evan White, John Singleton that you get, you also get someone like a Connor Griffin's looking pretty good right now for whatever the return on investment's gonna be for him, or Jackson.

SPEAKER_01 24:39

Or Ronald Acuna or Ozzie Albies.

SPEAKER_00 24:42

Like there was a point when Luis Robert Jr., like that looked really good, even though if some of the back end of it didn't look good. So and that's gonna be something. Obviously, there's not really anyone on the Giants right now that you can point to as a potential pre-debu extension guy. Like, there was some talks about whether you know Bright the Giants would consider that with Eldridge and Buster Posey said no, they they haven't considered that. But you know, maybe we're looking really down the line now. But like if Joshua and Luis Hernandez and Johnny Level, if they turn out to be the guys that you know that this organization hopes they can be, like maybe that's something that is considered with them. But that we're talking way down the line now, and I think that would take a because the Giants have never, at least to my knowledge, have haven't doled out one of these contracts.

SPEAKER_01 25:24

Yeah, I don't, not to my recollection.

SPEAKER_00 25:26

Yeah, so we'll we'll come on, we'll we'll hop on a podcast in three years and see if that's something uh that's considered, but kind of coming back to you know, the devers of it all, and I remember this is a point uh that Ken Rosenthal made when we were talking, friend of the program, Ken Rosenthal, um, earlier in the season, and I think he's made it a couple times on foul territory, is that you know, the Devers trade in a bubble in and of itself in acquiring Devers, you know, he hasn't been like awful. He's been 117 OPS plus, like he's still been, you know, somewhere in the range of you know, when he's really good, uh, an above average hitter, even if it's uh hasn't been great this season, even if it might not age well. But one of the central things that has really stuck out when evaluating this trade is what uh came after it, which was this past offseason. And there were some very glaring holes that this Giants team had in the offseason that was on the pitching staff. Um, whether it was starting pitching, they had two rotation spots to fill. The bullpen, me and you talked about this uh in the offseason. There were the we had the we had the lost episode because they signed like two guys like a day after we recorded. But they signed nine guys to Major League contracts this offseason. And for some fans, they might be like, well, nine? Nine? I'm gonna list you off the the nine guys, and we we talked about this pre- or before the pod, but I'm gonna list off these nine guys. Wilbrenn and Ryan Barucki, they've been DFA'd. Luisa Rice, he's been great. Although in the moment we talked about this, there was a lot that had to go right for that to look like a great signing. And it is exceeded our expectations. Uh Harrison Bader, he's been injured twice now, and you know, the injury that he has right now, not really a good timeline as to when he's gonna be back. Uh Jason Foley is still recovering from the right shoulder surgery he underwent last year.

SPEAKER_01 27:16

And he had a setback.

SPEAKER_00 27:17

And he had a setback as well. Uh Rowan Wick. Rowan Wick was signed as well during spring training. We're not gonna see him until 2027 because he underwent TJ. Uh Tyler Malley, currently on the injured list, and at the time of him going on the injured list was uh by ERA the worst qualified pitcher in the majors. Adrian Hauser, uh not been great. And that we might see an opener with him at some point soon. And uh Sam Henches making national headlines for not great reasons, but he's been performance-wise, he's been fine. He's been fine. So those were the nine guys that the Giants signed in the offseason. And you know, again, the Arise one has worked out fantastic, although you can, you know, quibble over whether you know they could have just had Casey Schmidt at second, and you know, again, I got going back to some of the uh the roster to flexibility stuff, but I think we said it in the moment, and you know, this isn't to do a victory lap, but you know, as of right now, it is kind of affirming what we said. It didn't seem like in the moment the Giants made enough substantial moves, especially after making a move of uh the caliber of Devers. It with Devers was a we're a win-now move, and because of where he and Adamus and Chapman and Lee and Webb were. And there wasn't it didn't feel like there was enough done to substantiate that. And especially as we're sitting here right now, it is clear that it hasn't been enough to substantiate a move of that magnitude.

SPEAKER_01 28:43

I mean, every every move they've made in you know, free agency the previous three years, plus that Devers move has signaled like this is our period, we're gonna win now. Teams don't spend all that in free agency unless they think they're gonna win, they're gonna get revenue back in fan sales and hopefully postseason. Um and so why why make the Devers trade? Why take on you know massive, you know, nine-figure contract if you're not then gonna supplement that roster? And it was pretty clear. I mean, we talked about it. This starting rotation coming into the season was not gonna be, you know, up to par. And there were options on the free agent and trade market that they you know could could have sought after very, very feasibly. Um, so yeah, it just doesn't make sense. They're towing a weird middle ground of we're gonna go in, we're gonna make this massive diverse trade, we're gonna trade this young left-handed pitcher. You know, we haven't talked about Kyle Harrison yet. We're gonna get there. We're gonna get there. You know, and Ace and Milwaukee. Um, so you you know, you you invest massive capital in this move and then don't supplement it at all. It's very confusing to me.

SPEAKER_00 29:51

Yeah, and to that point, it's you know, I'm not one of the you know, gonna come on here and say like a pay the Giants' payroll has to be 300 million. Like, I don't think they necessarily need to do something crazy like sign Frommer, sign Dylan Sees. They didn't need to sign like a Kyle Tucker, but you know, when you you know, at the moment, and I kind of highlighted this both when they signed Tyler Malley and Adrian Hauser, but you know, yeah, there was some upside there with Hauser. He had had a great two months in Chicago, the velocity ticked up with Tyler Malley. When he was healthy, he looked good. But you know, to the point about free agency, like when you do you know sign guys that are aren't letting a little more expensive, you know, you are kind of paying for you know a baseliner performance or at least an ex like there is a history performance and paying paying for fewer questions, if you want to say it like that, uh fewer question marks, and yeah, to the point, like there were you know some premium guys available if they were willing to dip into their some of their prospect capital. And it just you know came into the season with a bunch of question marks, question marks are still there, and yeah, like we've seen Trevor McDonald a little bit, you know, have some flashes. We still haven't seen Carson Wisenhunt this year. Maybe we see Blade Tidwell get a run at the at starting at some point, but you know, just the fact of the matter is aside from Logan Webb, and I know you want to get into Logan Webb uh as well and what he's done recently, it's just it's kind of been Webb and four question marks. And that was what I said in the beginning of the season, and that's just kind of what it still remains to be.

SPEAKER_01 31:17

And yeah, the the Roop and Ray starts have been, you know, all also a little bit peeving in that you know, those are supposed to be two guys who are solid, you know, number two and number three starting pitcher behind behind Logan Webb. I mean, they you know, the past they've had a track record of success the past two to three seasons. Um, and and so that's been unfortunate, especially given the Molly and and Howard and Hauser struggles. And in my eyes, I mean, you know, by ERA, McDonald's been decent, but overall, you know, the underlying metrics and the way that I've seen him pitch, I think has been really strong. And I I I'm about as big of a Blade Tidwell fan as there is. Um, and when you have two young starting pitchers who have flashed, your starting rotation in general has struggled, and you have two aging guys especially who have struggled, you know, I think it's all the more reason to give these young guys a chance.

SPEAKER_00 32:13

You mentioned giving young guys a chance. And if we're talking about the Devers trade, there is a team in Milwaukee that has given a young guy a chance. That's Kyle Harrison. And his his ERA is kind of inflated right now because he allowed like eight runs and two innings. I I forgot who he pitched against.

SPEAKER_01 32:30

Um that was in that was in Las Vegas.

SPEAKER_00 32:33

Okay, we're not counting okay. Do you want do you want 30 seconds to talk about what's happening in Vegas? Because good lord.

SPEAKER_01 32:41

Colorado game, what they scored 23 to runs.

SPEAKER_00 32:43

23 to 9. Oh my, it was a launching. That that makes course that that series made course park look like the polo grounds. It was unreal. It's just unreal.

SPEAKER_01 32:54

Uh and they yeah, they they expect to play baseball there in what 2029, I think.

SPEAKER_00 32:59

Yeah, 2020, whatever year it is.

SPEAKER_01 33:03

We're gonna we're gonna have a second just like massive course field with crazy park effects, I guess.

SPEAKER_00 33:11

Yeah, but you know, to the point of bringing it bringing it back to Harrison, again, we're gonna kind of throw that start at the window, but it's basically been a sub-2 RA. He's gonna be an all-star. Him and Jacob Mizarowski have formed one of the best one-two punches in baseball. And you know, I think it is easy to look at this trade in retrospect and say, like, why would the Giants give up Harrison? And the Giants knew his potential, like he was a third-round pick, but he got first-round money to lure him away from I think it was UCLA. That was his commitment. And you you saw it in flashes, like his home debut in 2024, like that was Linsa Kamask. Like, I I rewatched that like before he started against the Giants. That was one of like the most just dominant pitching strike like performances this team has had in in a long time. And you know, he was played by the shoulder stuff, the VLO wasn't there. And so the one thing I want to emphasize is that in order for the Devers trade to happen, the Giants had to give up something of substance. Like they couldn't just give, like, it couldn't just be Tibbs and Hicks and Bayo. Like as much as Boston may have wanted to get off Devers' salary, like the B the Red Sox had to get something of substance in return, which is kind of ironic considering that Harrison pitched like 10 innings for them. But it it is easy to forget that at the time the Giants did have a you know very fair amount of young pitching depth that they can kind of dip into to make this happen. This was before Hayden Birdsong struggles, and obviously before Hayden Birdsong underwent TJ. This is also when they had uh Carson Wisenhunt in the minors, and the kind of as Andrew Bagley mentioned, the luster of it hadn't worn off. He had Carson Seymour had yet to debut. There was also Kai Wei Tang, who's you know had some success in in Houston. It's been a little up and down recently. But they had to they had to trade someone, right? Like they had to dip into their pool of young players, and they picked Harrison, and it was a defensible choice, and you know, this isn't to say that they didn't think that he would be good, but but again, they had to trade someone, and it is easy to look at it now and say that was the wrong guy to trade, and maybe they should trade Birdsong, but you know, just looking at the Harrison element of this, this couldn't have worked out any better for him, and I guess by the proxy of the Brewers.

SPEAKER_01 35:27

Yeah, I mean, they've completely optimized the arsenal. I mean, he's Kyle Harrison has always had frontline starter potential. He has the traits, I mean, the the low release from the left side, you know, uh consistently sub-four vertical approach angle. That is ridiculously hard to hit. And, you know, with the Giants, he would just throw that pitch over and over and over. And he's done that a lot with with you know, he's still relying on the pitch in Milwaukee, but they've really improved his changeup. Um, you know, and even Boston, who's you know, supposed to be at the forefront of kind of the analytical pitching movement, um, they couldn't figure it out with him. And so, you know, it's not necessarily an indictment on the Giants. It's hard to figure out young pitchers. Um, but Milwaukee added this kick changeup to Harrison with now negative 3.8 inches of vertical break. That just you know creates a killer combination between his foreseam and his changeup. And he's still throwing his force 59% of the time, 36% chase rate, 31% whiff rate, just pounding the top of the zone with it, and guys cannot hit it. Um, and it's unfortunate. I mean, a Bay Area kid, he was my guy. I loved, you know, as he was coming through the system. I was so excited for it. Um, and I I always am kind of a sucker for the flat fastball. Um, so it's been unfortunate to see, it's unfortunate for the Giants to see a starting pitcher of that caliber get away. But like you said, it's you know, hindsight's 2020, and they, you know, you got to pay up if you want impact pieces. And you know, people have been asking for the Giants to go and acquire superstars for years. Um, and so yeah, it's kind of a nature of of making trades.

SPEAKER_00 37:07

Yeah, and again, I I just want to emphasize like a lot of this is hindsight is 2020. Like, yes, we can on June 16th, 2026, we can look back and say the trade a year in has not been great. And you know, I think a natural question that a lot of people has that this has floated around is you know, if the Giants don't make this trade, they keep Harrison, they just allow Eldridge if he just goes on like the very same developmental path that he's gone on and look like the same guy, because again, like he's I don't I don't know the the Eldridge numbers right in front of me, but like since he came up, he's just been one of the best hitters in baseball. And it is easy to say, like, what if they never made this trade? They just let Eldridge be the first base guy, they figure everything else out and all the other dominoes. It's e again, it's easy it's very easy to say that right now, but we have the benefit of hindsight. And I I do want to emphasize that it it's not like in the moment when this trade happened, everyone's like, Oh my god, why would the Giants do that? They are like think about the future. Like the the Giants haven't had a guy that you could say is gonna hit 30 homers and drive in 100 runs into Barry Bonds. But yeah, there were some downsides to the trade, yes, like there's some things you could point at, but it made sense in the moment. And they were like 10 or 11 games above 500 at the time. And you know, you supplement that with the pitching staff that they had, the bullpen that they had too last year. And yeah, I think a really kind of random thing kind of in all of this, too, is Randy Rodriguez going down. I think it's kind of a small thing that's easy to forget. Just like what would this bullpen look like if Randy was healthy? So I I think to kind of pin a bow on the on the Devers trade, and if you have any final thoughts, feel free to provide them. It it is easy to say, like, why did why would they do this? Especially when you see Harrison and James Tibbs is looking like he could be a guy with the Dodgers as well. Maybe two years from now we look at on a two-year anniversary, like Tibbs is like the starting left fielder and he replaces Tay Oscar, but I think it's it's easy to understand why they made the trade the time, and it's also easy to understand why it hasn't aged well.

SPEAKER_01 39:05

Yeah, and I think yeah, the thing that yeah, and you've emphasized it, hindsight is 2020. I think the thing that the lesson I've learned is it's very, very tough to generate value as a guy who's stuck as a first place DH type. And Devers really, really has to hit to for the Giants to kind of gain any value in this in this trade. And so paying that premium, paying you know, $250 million, whatever, plus in contract, plus the Harrison Tibbs prospect package for a guy who will, you know, in the span of his Giants career, probably not play the field all that often, is you know, just a tricky, tricky move. And you know, I think the importance we've seen it with Milwaukee. This is how they've become one of the best teams in baseball, is they emphasize speed and defense at every position. You know, they are they are above average and it helps their pitching staff. And you know, these guys are able to gain value kind of in the margins, whereas you know, uh a Devers type just has to mash to you know surpass, you know, the two plus war. So again, you know, we we have the the the hindsight of seeing you know Devers is swing and miss in the zone and the bat speed is starting to decline and what Harrison has done, but it's tough to make investments in these guys who don't really generate value from the field.

SPEAKER_00 40:41

Yeah, we still have a lot of time left on this this Devers trade. We're gonna be seeing a lot more Rafael Devers in in a Giants uniform before the before this contract is over, and we don't know how it's gonna end. We don't have the we we know how the first year has gone, we don't know how the next year is gonna go. Uh, but that's just kind of the nature of doing business. Matthew, this is really fun as always. Where can we find your work and you know where can we see you pitch?

SPEAKER_01 41:04

Uh yeah, I mean, always on Twitter. You can uh Matt Matthew can I think it's Matthew K36711. Um I like I said, I was writing for the Daily Bruin this year. Um, I'll be working through for the Walnut Creek Crawd's the rest of the summer, and then next year I'll be joining UCLA baseball as a student manager and helping with some analytics stuff. So that's where I'll be. You can always reach out to me on Twitter. Feel free to shoot me a DM, ask me any kind of questions. I'm open and uh always love talking to Giants. This is fun as always, Matthew. Thank you for coming on. Yeah, thanks for having me.