Splash Considerations Ep. 29: Wheeling & Dealing (feat. Matthew Knauer)

In Episode 29, Justice is joined by Matthew Knauer (@matthewk36711 on Twitter) to discuss the Giants' flurry of deadline deals, the intriguing upside of Marcelo Mayer, the front office's ability to add pitching to the farm system over the last month and what will be worth watching over the last two months. Trade summaries:

TRADE 1: RHP Tyler Mahle --> RHP Anthony Molina

TRADE 2: 2B Luis Arraez --> RHP Ramon Marquez, RHP Marty Gair

TRADE 3: LHP Robbie Ray --> RHP Miguel Mendez, SS Joniel Hernandez

TRADE 4: OF Heliot Ramos --> LHP Henry LaLane, INF Kaeden Kent

TRADE 5: LHP Erik Miller, OF Carlos Gutierrez --> INF Marcelo Mayer

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:27

Welcome to another episode of Splash Considerations. My name is Justice Delosantos, San Francisco Giants P reporter for the Bay Area News Group, San Jose Mercury News, East Bay Times, whatever you want to call us, as long as you read, as long as you subscribe. And speaking of subscribe, subscribe to the YouTube channel. Follow us on Apple, follow us on Spotify. A lot of things in this world cost a lot of money, but subscribing and following, those things remain free. 99 in just a moment of your time. And I'm joined now by someone who I couldn't even fathom trading. We've been getting calls from other podcasts around the league. I said no. He's untouchable. Matthew Kenauer, how are we doing?

SPEAKER_01 1:04

I'm good. How are you?

SPEAKER_02 1:05

Thank you for having me on. Matthew, it's been one of the most hectic 24 hours. One of the most hectic days of my journalism career. I don't think uh I've had another day where I've written about seven stories in like a 27 hour span. It was crazy. And I made a joke to somebody in the press box. I say, with every trade that happens, those modellos that hit my hand at the end of at the end of this night are just gonna taste a little bit better and a little bit better. And I'm not gonna lie, they were. They were. It was a lot of it was six coffees, I think, in total, throughout the day, including the cappuccino. And I I I needed I needed something else by the end of the night. But Matthew, let's let's just jump out right into it. It was obviously a crazy deadline day. They made five trades. Uh they sent out six major league quality players. They got back eight guys in return. Only one of which you can confidently say is you know a true guy you can stick in the major league level for an extended period of time, uh, another kind of quad A guy just based on where his career is at. Um but before getting into the particulars, just what were your overall thoughts on you know the five trade flirt like Flurry? What were your overall thoughts on what they got back and just kind of where you know you see this team kind of going from here, especially the comment that Buster said that this isn't a true rebuild?

SPEAKER_01 2:28

Yeah, I mean he he can say that, but it it it was a fire sale. You know, they could have easily just traded Ray and Arias, their expiring deals, and you know, kept their foot off the gas there, got two nice prospects, but they went and you know continued to to trade off major league pieces. If they want to compete next year, Elliott Ramos would have been uh a big part of that, but they got you know uh a nice crop of young pitchers. Uh, you know, we'll we'll get into the details a little bit more, but I I like all three of those arms. And then Marcel Marcelo Mayer is uh you know a young, controllable middle infielder, and it's you know, it's not that often that you you trade for a 23-year-old top former top prospect, you know, number four overall pick. So the Giants got themselves a lot of upside at this deadline.

SPEAKER_02 3:15

Yeah, I think it's fair to say that you know, leading into the deadline, it was fair to wonder like what exactly were the Giants gonna get, because you started seeing reports on you know from Jeff Passon saying, you know, a rise probably wasn't gonna net that much. You know, Robbie Ray, he's had a good season from an ERA perspective. When you look at some of the peripherals, it's like, uh like how much is this actually gonna net, especially the money that he's owed. Still, Tyler Malley's been kind of up and down. Ramos was kind of the big guy going into this deadline where you wondered, you know, were they actually gonna pull the trigger on a trade for him if they found a deal that they liked? So they as you mentioned, some of the pitchers that they got back are super infatuating. I do want to get into I think Mayor might be the place that we start, but just before getting into the details, let's kind of go run through this chronologically, go through the trades uh individually, and then we'll get into our thoughts from there. So Sunday evening after the Giants uh lose to the San Diego Padres, they trade Tyler Malley to the Atlanta Braves for uh right-hander Anthony Molina, has had a couple of years in the majors, kind of been an up-down guy, spent, you know, the the chase uh chase rate strikeout rates better in AAA uh than in the major league level. But then that leads into uh deadline day, which was when the majority of his stuff kind of went down. So around I think 8.30 Pacific Standard Time, or maybe 6.30 Pacific Standard Time. I the times blur together, just because I'm in Arlington. Uh Luisa Rise is traded to Phillies or for Ramon Marquez and Marty Hare. Uh Robbie Reyes then traded to the San Diego Padres for Miguel Mendez and Yani L. Hernandez. That was pretty much all the extent until we get into kind of Monday afternoon. And the way that I led my story, uh, one of the one of the seven stories from yesterday, kind of the main one breaking down Buster Posey's comments, is that we saw Elliot in the locker room. He still had a locker, he he had his bat with him, he was ready to go. And, you know, a group of reporters kind of saw him and you know, we smiled and like, you know, happy to see you. To which he says, you know, there's still time. It was 3.45 ahead of the five o'clock deadline, and yes, there was still time because he gets traded to the Yankees for Henry Lalani and Caden Kent, son of just recently minted Hall of Famer Jeff Kent. And then the final trade of the day, Eric Miller to Boston for Marcelo Mayer, who, as you mentioned, you know, 23 years old, um, lots of years of control, former top prospects, so just this crazy flurry of moves that we made yesterday, one of the more hectic deadlines in recent memory. And so there's a lot of places that we can start with this, and I I think I just want to start with the mayor one because that was the one, like when I saw it pop up on my phone, I was like, What? Marcelo Mayer for Eric Miller? Like, like you can like there are a lot of quibbles that you can make about Marcelo Mare and where how his career has gone so far. But as you mentioned, he's 23 years old, he's a middle infielder, lots of years in team control, and from my vantage point, it felt like the Boston Red Sox were selling very low on Marcelo Mayer.

SPEAKER_01 6:13

Uh, we had gotten to that point in the day. The Ramos trade, in my opinion, felt like it was going to be the last. You know, that was what, by that point, the fifth trade? That was the fourth. Fourth, fourth. And so, you know, I thought Buster Posey's day was done. And I got a text from my one of my buddies, mayor, to SF. And I was actually thinking that was Bryce Mayer, Houston Astros pitching prospect, you know, because we've been trading for all these pitching prospects. No way, that's middle infielder, you know, former top prospect Marcelo Mayer. And I love the move for the Giants. You know, I put it out on my Twitter. If you are looking at it by war or surplus value, it is almost almost impossible for three and a half years of a reliever to add up to more value for a team than five and a half years for a young, controllable middle infielder. The way Marcelo Mayer, you know, he's not uh not going to be a shortstop really. You know, he can plug in there if you need, but he's a pretty solid defender at second base and a lot of potential at the plate. Um, just looking into some of the underlying data, it's been poor this year. You know, his battered ball quality is uh has taken a steep regression from last year, but he's been hurt. And uh, you know, I think the Giants are hoping that they can get him healthy, they can give him a long runway to playing time. You know, and there's never been a time in his career prior to this in the minor leagues where slug or impact has been an issue, you know, and he's making contact, he's not chasing a ton, he's swinging at the right pitches. The only thing he needs to start putting together is you know, barrels and start hitting with some more impact. And I think San Francisco's hopefully the place where he can get a runway to do that.

SPEAKER_02 7:49

Yeah, I think he hit the nail on the head there, just in the sense that you mentioned just like the years of control for a reliever for for a you know a middle infielder, like just a reliever for a middle infielder, period. Like you're talking about like there's a lot of surplus value there. But you know, Eric Miller was one of the kind of the few high octane arms that they had in that bullpen, but uh we've seen him pitch over parts of three years with the Giants, and while he's kind of flashed that stuff on a lot of occasions, you know, he just hasn't really been able to locate it consistently. And I think he ends his career as a giant with like six points something walks per nine. Like, yeah, the strikeouts are great, yeah, this stuff is great, but you know, just hasn't translated into that reliable like you see him pitch and you think like this should be like a late inning arm, if not a closer, and just kind of never got to that point just because like at a point, you know, the command it would just kind of was untenable. Now maybe the Red Sox get him and they can get him to start throwing strikes. Uh they got a Rawls Chapman to start throwing strikes, so we'll kind of see there. But you know, to the point about Mayor, it's you know, obviously with Casey Schmidt effectively being done. They haven't said he's done for sure, but you know, with the Tormenis and her going the surgery, uh, as well as the Luisa Rias trade, there's now a massive opening in second base. And you know, Mayor's currently on the injury list right now. We don't have a definitive timetable as to when he can return, but he can easily, you know, very f fathomably slide into that spot for the remainder of the season, get some decent runway and get the a decent opportunity to evaluate. And I did retweet a tweet right before we started recording that, you know, he was a little I don't think he liked the fact that he, in his opinion, didn't believe he got a ton of runway. And you know, part of that was due to injuries. He had the I think it was the right wrist sprain last July that effectively ended his season. He's been out for about a month now. But you know, it's it's kind of that that killer combo of injuries and inconsistency. But again, this is a guy that was uh a top prospect in baseball not too long ago, the Red Sox top prospect not too long ago, and you're getting an opportunity to be able to do it. He he's he's 23 years old, like he's a baby in baseball terms, and so you there's a lot of runway for him on this team in particular, and you know again, I can't I just keep going back to you know, you're trading a a a lefty reliever for a guy with five and a half years of control. Like that's a move you make every day.

SPEAKER_01 10:20

Yep, and you know, I I hope all the best for Eric Miller in Boston. I think he you know has a good shot to be a high-leverage postseason arm for them. But like you said, the walk rate this season was up above 16%, you know, zone rates, chase rates, just you know, in the in the gutter. But he has four pitches. I mean, the the sinker that he added this year is his best pitch by stuff. The slider and changeup are really good. You know, uh you hope he can be a part of boss season's postseason run, but you know, like you said, I'm sure the Giants are excited to get Mayer back here. And you know, I'm kind of reminded of the kind of two-part breakout that Casey Schmidt had, that Elliott Ramos had. You know, it's it's hard to succeed right when you get to the big league level. And a lot of these prospects, it takes a little bit of time. It takes, you know, maybe a send down to AAA again or you know, one to two years of facing major league pitching. So, you know, we'll see. Like you said, it's all about the runway for Marcella Mayer.

SPEAKER_02 11:18

Yeah, and speaking of Casey Schmidt, they actually went to the same high school, East Lake High School, yeah, in San Diego. And I think they've done a podcast together. I think they're really tight. So I think that's just fun on a personal level for you know, two West Coast kids being reunited on a West Coast team. And while we're on the subject of second base, you know, this is kind of one of gonna be one of the big questions for the remainder of the season, as far as, you know, you know, Mayor is obviously recovering from an injury right now. Again, we don't know definitively when he's gonna be back, but you know, that spot is it's pretty open, and there's no definitive uh guy that's gonna slot in there. Jesus Rodriguez just went on the injury list recently as well. He was a guy that's seen time over there. So the one guy I am curious to see gets a run at second base the remainder of the season when he gets back is Jonah Cox. Uh you know, there's gonna be some spots in the outfield as well with Elliott being gone, but I don't know. I just feel like he wants to be a super utility guy. He's made some really nice plays over there at second base. And in a season where you pretty much got like 49 games of playing out the string, like I I'm all for some weird and creative lineups and just giving guys some opportunities to do some things that they normally don't do.

SPEAKER_01 12:33

I'm ready to see Parks Harbor make an impact. I don't know if you've seen how he's been swinging it in triple.

SPEAKER_02 12:37

I've been seeing it. I've it I feel like it's just a matter of when at this point, not if.

SPEAKER_01 12:42

Yeah. I couldn't couldn't agree more.

SPEAKER_02 12:45

Even if it's at the even if it's in left field, even if it's regardless of where it is, even if even if it's in right field, uh I think that we, you know, I think there's a a non-zero chance that we could see some Parks Harbor. Although I've mentioned this before, he's not 40-man eligible until next year. So if you add him to the 40-man roster and the lockout happens, you not able to communicate with him. But that's another problem for another day. And I think Zach Manassinian was actually asked about that yesterday, and I think he said something to the effect of, you know, they try not to let it, you know, impact their decision making. So now that we've got the the mayor one out the way, again, that's gonna be the one trade um that probably has the most impact at the main well, not probably it is gonna be the one trade that has an instant impact at the major league level. The rest of the trades are about replenishing the farm system. I'll kind of lob this over to you. But between the trades that they made over the last two days, in conjunction with the draft, and we've talked about the guys like Flora and Bowman and Watchster, this farm system has gotten like a just this crazy surge of pitching talent compared to where it was a month ago. And when you see it in conjunction with a lot of the position player talent that we've talked about a lot, I think you're kind of looking at like a borderline, if not top five farm system in baseball.

SPEAKER_01 14:06

Oh, yeah. I mean, you have the young, the young position players, they have that core, and it goes beyond just you know the the Luis Hernandez and the Joe Zuar and the Johnny Level. They have a lot of depth. We were just talking about some guys, you know, Parks Harbor, Bo Davidson, but the pitching as well, they had their own group of like four younger guys, you know, the Luis Tela Torre, the Argenis Kayama, the Keener Martinez's, Carlos Telarosa, and they supplanted those, you know, in the draft, like we said, with Flora and Bullman and Wecter and some other really interesting arms, and then at the trade deadline with three really nice pieces, and now this becomes a 10 plus deep staff of what I would call you know 45 plus future value pitchers, and that gives you some serious depth in your system.

SPEAKER_02 14:56

Yeah, it's again, I I mentioned the Marquez one. Um, I I think that's the place where I want to start just because I think you know, of the non like mayor trades, I think that was the one that was like most shocking to me because I I mentioned this on Twitter yesterday. Like I reported that the Giants had a scout in attendance for one of Marquez's last start, and they weren't the only team, they had a couple other teams there as well. But I I mentioned his name in relation to like a possible Ramos trade. And you know, when I got that bit of intel, I started looking into Marquez, and I see he's 20 years old, just absolutely lights out so far this year. He actually skipped the DSL kind of like Luis Hernandez uh did as well. And I'm I'm looking at his profile, I see the change-up is nasty, and I'm thinking there's no way like the Phillies are gonna trade this guy, and especially when it was it for who it ended up being Luis Arries, and you know that you know how the Phillies are gonna have to, you know, change their whole defensive alignment for him, but you know, especially when I saw the Luisa Rias trade, like I was not expecting Marquez to be part of the return. I was not expecting Hare to be part or Gare to be part of the return either. And I think just to start there, like what were your impressions of you know the Giants being able to acquire two arms of that quality for a two-month rental in Luisa Rias?

SPEAKER_01 16:17

Yeah, I mean, I think some of the some of the talk that the Arias package wouldn't be wouldn't be all that plentiful. I'll I never believe that just because you know how desperate teams get at the trade deadline. I mean, these teams are looking to win a World Series, and a lot of value comes with a playoff run, a playoff push, and teams end up always overpaying. Um, and uh it is a rental, but you look at what a Rias has done, especially defensively this year, and I think that's why the Phillies pulled the trigger, is because of how confident you know they think he'll he'll play in the infield, plus he's gonna hit 320, 330, not strike out very much. So I I'm expect I was expecting the return. I was maybe more thinking it would be Tampa Bay. I was really interested in Michael Ferret um and a few other bats they have, but you know, I'm in love with the proc prospect package from Philadelphia. Ramon Marquez looks like a future ace. Um, I mean, you look just look at the domination this year, a 42% strikeout rate, just 9% walk rate between two levels, high A, low A, you know, no slowdown in high A, where strikeout rate has jumped up to 43%. You mentioned the changeup. Fangrafts had it as a 70 current value pitch, 80 future value, which is three standard deviations above the mean. The average is 50. You know, you don't just see 80 grade changeups all that often. Um, and the stuff backs it up. It's 13 miles an hour slower than his changeup, which is elite separation with pretty strong depth. Um, the whiff rate on it this year is 67% on 152 swings, 103 swing and misses. So, you know, the the numbers are pretty comical. He's had incredible success, and I'd like the Giants to push him to Richmond a little bit. Um, because I think you know, I think he can be tested. He's about to turn 21. Um, and the slider is really good too. So we'll need to see him kind of start to continue expanding the mix. But I'm really excited with with that arm. And then you mentioned Gare too. Um, Marty Gare, Philly's relief prospect, who has some electric stuff. The fastball's up to 99, 100, a cut ride shape, and then he has a really hard sweeper off of it.

SPEAKER_02 18:29

Yeah, and with with Gare in particular, you know, when trades like this happen, or when trades anything happen, you know, you instantly kind of go to you know, baseball America's top 30, you go to MLB Pipeline's top 30, and you just type in the name and see kind of where they rank. And Gare was, I think, the only guy that was aside from Molina and Mayer that were acquired on the prospect front that weren't ranked. But you know, you look at the numbers and you do see a very intriguing arm in the sense that, you know, this is a guy that dealt with an elbow issue. He was drafted in 2023 but missed all of 2024. But the strikeout rates have been insane up to this point. He's got some fascinating stuff. And the command issues have been, you know, a little shoddy, and I think that you know that's gonna be the big question uh with him going forward. I can't remember the numbers off the top of my head. I think he has like a four or five ERA and high A this year. But, you know, talking with someone in the Giants organization, they were very high on the upside that he has, especially if he's able to rein in that command. Uh moving over to the Robbie Ray trade, because again, this was actually, you know what, before we move to the Robbie Ray trade, let's let's take a moment, let's take a very brief moment. Let's appreciate what Luisa Rise did in the brief time that he was here, because I think we were kind of aligned on Arise when the signing happened. I think there was a lot of valid reasons to be skeptical, especially because the Giants made it known that they were gonna let him play second base, but what a joy he was to watch day in, day out. Like it's not hard to understand why he endeared himself to fans. It's not hard to understand why the Giants wanted or why Giants fans wanted to extend him, which we'll get into that in a second, actually. Um, just your thoughts on watching Luisa Rice play in a Giants uniform for the hundred or so games that he did.

SPEAKER_01 20:19

Yeah, I mean it was like you said, that style of baseball, the the the old heads, you know, they push it all the time, and sometimes it can get frustrating. But seeing dudes just put the ball and play and rack up hits is is really fun. And uh, you know, I was highly question questioning the defense coming into the season, you know, with how poor he was at first base last year. I thought he had no chance to stick in the middle infield. And you know, credit to Ron Ron Washington, Luis Arrias for for that, because it's like you said, I mean, the defense, the defense brought that return. You know, the if Luis Arries was playing his 2024 middle infield with the Padres, Phillies would not have pulled the trigger on that trade and sent Ramon Marquez. Um, so yeah, credit to Luis Arries. It was a blast watching him play all season. And you know, thanks for Ramon Marquez.

SPEAKER_02 21:09

I'm kind of surprised that the the Phillies didn't make a push for Ron Washington in that trade either. Again, make sure to get his guy to Philly as well.

SPEAKER_01 21:18

Yeah, yeah. But uh, you know, hopefully his principles can you know stay the same and sound, and I'm sure he'll be strong defensively over there.

SPEAKER_02 21:27

Yeah, it's it I mentioned this on Sunday. I it kind of struck me as like the last kind of you know, it does suck that, you know, given all the hits that he amassed, his last at Batten Giant was him flying out to end Sunday's ballgame. But the one play from his last game's gonna resonate. It's Gavin Sheets hits this like 109 mile an hour one hopper. And it's exactly the type of play that a ries struggled to make before coming to San Francisco, and he just picks it, spins against the grain, does that little shuffle that. He likes to do when he knows he has time and then like he doesn't throw it over, he like flings it over, throws some he has some flair on it. Just an incredibly fun guy to watch play. And again, it's the one the the numbers are one thing, but just watching him play the way per the way that he would take pitches, like he no one would do that, like no one else in baseball can do that. Like you could give you could have given him two strikes in every single at bat, and he would have been completely fine with it. And I mentioned the extension part of this. You know, I talked to Luis, he said he was open to an extension. Uh, but I had, you know, I've been told that there have never been any formal discussions as far as an extension, and it's kind of just a product of where the Giants are at with their contracts on the books between William Adamas, Matt Chapman, Rafael Debers, Jung Hu Lee. It just wasn't tenable to give someone like Arise another one of those contracts, even if it, you know, I kind of was wondering yesterday, like what would a Luis Arise extension even have looked like because his profile is so unique, even after kind of the Nico Horner deal. But there's obviously a very clear need for pitching. They went out and got a lot of pitching, even though it's at the minor league level, and it just wouldn't have made a ton of sense for a team that was on deadline day 18 games under 500 to say we're gonna kind of double down on this roster. Yeah, as fun as Luis Arries was to watch.

SPEAKER_01 23:22

Yeah, it didn't really make sense to uh increase the bloating of contracts, you know, like you said, with all the position players locked up for you know uh the next half decade, basically. And like a I'm thinking in my head what the Arrias deal would be. I'd assume he's asking for you know four years at least, and it's gonna be at least 20 million AAV, um, given the production that he's put up. So yeah, uh an extension didn't necessarily make sense. I mean, they could have maybe given him the qualifying offer, you know. If he doesn't sign, you take that pick next year. But the best, clearest move was definitely to trade him at the deadline.

SPEAKER_02 24:02

And if anybody's listening and is wondering, like, were Giants fans really wondering uh about an extension, just check my emails. I was getting there's this I'm gonna say this right now. There's this one guy, I'm not gonna say who it is, but I think he emailed me something to the effect of trade the frickin' writers like ever, like once a week for the last three weeks. And I haven't responded to him. I kind of want to respond to him and just be like, I have a no-trade clause. I'm sorry. I'm sorry, you can't trade me just like we can't trade you. So let's go to the Robbie Ray trade because again, this is another trade, you know, that you knew he was gonna get traded. It was only a matter, or it was only a question of what were the Giants going to like reasonably be able to get for a guy whose ERA was solid, but you know, his peripherals were kind of shaky, strikeout rate uh was down, walk rate was up, but you know, veteran that can give you innings, and it was another very fascinating haul because they get Miguel Mendez, who's the Padres number 10 prospect baseball America, as well as Yaniel Hernandez. He's their number 21. He signed for 1.3 million out of Cuba. He just finished up a season in the DSL. I think I did see that he struck out more than he walked. I think it was by one, um, which I just found very interesting because this was a very controversial trade on Padre's Twitter. Like I waited my toes into Padre's Twitter accidentally, and a lot of people were really mad that he got traded. But I think he had a 20, a 120 WRC plus there. I think his call and card is the athleticism. But again, you know, the Giants don't really have I think it's worth mentioning this, the Giants don't really have the leverage in these situations. Like these are guys that other teams know the Giants have to trade, or they're gonna get nothing for them. And so again, for the Giants to be able to get a pitcher like Mendez and you know, kind of take a flyer on a guy like Hernandez, it ju it was just another very impressive trade that Buster Posey and Zach Manassian were able to pull off given the circumstances.

SPEAKER_01 26:02

Yeah, I mean Hernandez, it's crazy. I open his fangraphs, and you see 2009, which is like that like oh my god, that almost impossible to even argue prospect. I mean, for me, that's two years younger than I am, then. Um, you know, he he clearly had a great season in the DSL. Um, but that level is very hard to evaluate talent at. You know, the average fastball is like 91 miles an hour, even less than that. And most pitchers, you know, are not throwing off speeds, breaking balls all that frequently, but you know, it's good to see success there. Um, you know, Mendez is really the the part of the package that I'm intrigued by um because it's an electric aren't you know, you look at the stuff he's now the Giants clearly high hardest uh hardest throwing starting pitching prospect, averaging 97.4 miles an hour on his basketball this year's reach back for 101. Um, you know, the relief risk is pretty alarmingly high. He's had a walk rate above 10% in each year in his minor league career. Um, and the mix is not very deep. It's just forcing changeup and slider. Um, and both the changeup and slider metrically are decent. They show potential, but he needs to throw the slider a lot harder and he needs more depth on the changeup, but his fastball is really strong. It's from a low slot with a you know ride-run profile, and you throw a 97, that's gonna play. So there's a lot of you know, a lot of upside in that arm. Worst case, it's a high leverage reliever, but you know, again, it's for a rental for half a season of Robbie Ray, you know, it's a nice bet for the Giants to take.

SPEAKER_02 27:42

Yeah, you hit the point right there. He has dealt with some of the command issues. I think he dealt with a shoulder uh issue as well. But you know, it's just uh when you're trying to restock a farm system, just when you can get a quantity of guys in the building, I think the more kind of you know, bites of the apple, so to say, just the more you know likely that you know one of these guys at some point is gonna hit. And you know, with Hernandez in particular, again, it it was just so fascinating just how mad the like the Padres Twitter was about you know trading away somebody like him. I think Emily Pipeline actually had him as their number nine guy, and I think they may have had Marquez or Mendez as their number four. Uh, but you know, there's a lot of risk with somebody like Hernandez, and risk I say risk in like the evaluation standpoint of you know, he's 17 years old. It it would be a long time uh before even being able to see him, but just another very talented middle infielder to kind of get into the system uh as well.

SPEAKER_01 28:37

And a quick point there, just you you had mentioned, I think that was baseball America's ranking where Mendez was four and Hernandez was nine, and I can't remember who it was. One of the baseball America writers put out just a testament to how strong this Giants prospect group is, as well as the Padres system, is very much lacking. Mendez now becomes I I think the Giants number 16, and Hernandez becomes their 21. So, you know, the the jump from four and nine to that is uh just a testament to how deep this this Giants farm has become.

SPEAKER_02 29:11

Yeah, and it's you know, it I think Buster Posey actually made this point yesterday as well, and it was kind of the way that I capped off yesterday's story is you know, it I think the way he said it was like, you know, it doesn't really matter until you get to the major league level. Like, yeah, it's nice to see all these names on paper, but at some point you are gonna, you know, what you actually tangibly do, and it's kind of like, yeah, this game isn't played. We're not playing the games on the baseball America, you know, ranking system. And it's like, and how many times have we seen somebody be a top prospect that doesn't turn to something or vice versa? But you know, the more again, the more guys you get on in the farm system, the more quality talents that you get in the farm system, uh, the better. And speaking of somebody that you know used to be a top prospect, at least in the Giants organization, we gotta move on to Elliott Ramos. And if I had a nickel for every time that the Giants traded a one-time All-Star with years of team control remaining to the New York Yankees in the last in the time that I've covered this team, I would have two nickels, which is not a lot, but it's odd that it's happened twice. Camilla Duvall obviously traded last year, and Elliott Ramos traded to the Yankees this year for Henry Lalani and Kaden Kent, as I mentioned, the son of recently minted Hall of Famer Jeff Kent. And I think when the Kent portion of it came out, I was like, of course it happened. I was like, of course they got Kent as well. And I made the joke to uh Tony Vitello, like, how do you feel about having a Bonds and a Kent in the organization as well? Obviously, the draft Giants drafted Peyton Bonds in the third round of the 2026 draft. But Henry Lelani, another guy that's just super fascinating, six foot seven. I think he's uh he is a lefty. Uh, just what do what really stood out to you about his profile?

SPEAKER_01 30:59

Yeah, I mean, well, first of all, the Giants. I just thought it was funny. They love their bloodline guys, they love dudes who had dads or uncles or they they've got a lot. Relatives who played in the show and succeeded for the Giants or other organizations.

SPEAKER_02 31:12

Yeah, they got Trott Nixon's kid as well. I think we mentioned uh Matt Kemp's nephew. I think is that it? I think I feel like there's got to be one more that I'm blanking at Bonds, um, obviously Peyton Bonds. I feel like there's like one more, but yeah, they they they've they've added a lot of those guys in like the last month.

SPEAKER_01 31:33

Yeah, and Kent is nice middle infield depth. Um, you know, the bat is supposed to be decent. We'll see how he comes along. Well, Lalani is really the centerpiece of this trade. Um, and to me, it just looks like a a very high percentage back-end big league starter. Um, you know, six seven obviously helps as a pitcher. He has great extension um and sits around 94 to 95, which from the left side, if you have that with his changeup, it's hard to not be successful in the lower levels. And you see the success that he's had. Um, the changeup really profiles as a strong pitch, and it's similar to Marquez, gotten elite swing and miss rates um at single and high A this season. Um for him, the big development will have to be the slider, which right now sits at 78 miles an hour, minus 16 velocity gap from the fastball does not play. You know, I was worried with Mendez, whose gyro slider is about minus 12. Um, and so both of those guys, you know, are what on the biomechanic side we would call a pronator. So guys who stay behind the baseball well, they get good carry on their fastball and they can throw changeups, but it's hard for them to get around the side of the baseball and get to spin. So both Mendez and Lilane, it'll be really important for the Giants to help them develop the slider and hopefully throw it a bit harder.

SPEAKER_02 32:56

Yeah, and in getting someone like you know, Lalani in in the building, you know, it was gonna have to trade it be a trade that the Giants it was gonna have to meet a certain threshold of expectations because again, Elliott has still three years of team control remaining after this season. You know, he is, you know, I wrote a story, I think it was last week, earlier this week, I don't know, the days kind of blend together, but I think there was a very compelling argument for trading him. I think there was a very compelling argument for keeping him as you mentioned. You know, if the Giants were, you know, it's not unfathomable to think he could be part of a competitive Giants team in 2027. And I think there's an argument to think that there's still more left in the tank given how hard he hits the ball. He has made some strides on defense this year. Still not, you know, a great defender, but compared to where it was last year and it was pretty rough last year, he's just from the eye test, has been a lot better. And I don't know how you feel about this, but I think he's gonna take advantage of that short porch in right at Yankee Stadium a lot. If he's hitting opposite field homers out in Oracle, just imagine when we get to some of those humid days in New York and start flipping some of those balls the opposite field.

SPEAKER_01 34:10

Yeah, I mean, like you said, it always just felt like there's a little bit more. Um, from Elliot, again, exactly what you said, how how hard he hits the ball, the impact, you know, the the opposite field, splash hit, home run. You know, he has incredible raw power. Um, but from a production standpoint, especially with how he played in left field, you know, if you you look at the overall numbers and they never amounted to much. It was pretty much a 1.5 to 2 war player, which is is valuable for a team. But um, you know, you you really hope that he turned into kind of a 800-plus OPS bat, you know, a 25 home run threat. And that never really came about. But, you know, in New York with that short porch, you know, they have a strong history of of developing hitters. Um, you know, and he always seemed like a great guy. So best of luck to Elliot Rongos there.

SPEAKER_02 35:01

Yeah, I think it's, you know, without question, this is probably the not even probably, it was the most emotional trade of the day because Elliott was obviously a guy. He was drafted in 2017, he was their first rounder. And, you know, the overall numbers, you know, are like it kind of left you wanting a little more in the sense that you could see how hard he impacted the ball. But it doesn't change the fact that he was their first homegrown outfielder since Chili Davis. He was he hit the first, you know, opposite well, first splash hit by a right-handed batter. He broke the infamous streak of 19 different left fielders in 19 different years from 2007 to 2025. So he kind of has like all these little bits and pieces in Giants lore. He was, you know, kind of just he also had the inside the park walk-off little league homer against the Rangers last year. So all of these just really memorable moments for Elliott. A great guy uh as well. And so, you know, he was the only guy that well, yeah, he was the only guy that was drafted, developed uh by the Giants from start to finish, and was upon being traded yesterday. Eric Miller was acquired in a trade yesterday. Which Eric, quick aside, it was funny that somebody said they basically turned Junior Marte, the other Junior Marte, not the one they acquired in the Mikey Shremsky trade, into Marcelo Mayer. But yeah, definitely an emotional one. And Elliot said he thinks he thinks he's gonna look good in pinstripes. I would like to think I agree, and I'm kind of I'm very curious to see like what a tandem of him and Stanton and Judge kind of or can I yeah, Stanton and Judge kind of looks like because those are three very strong dudes, and we're gonna get to see Elliot for the first time in his career play some meaningful, presumably postseason baseball, I assume.

SPEAKER_01 36:49

Well, that's gonna be a crowded outfield because they have Trent Christian and Cody Bellinger as well. Um and you know, the the initial reactions I saw some from saw from some Yankees fans was you know kind of dismayed that they had traded Lalani for a guy who seems to be right now, like I mean, there's not a spot for him to start every day. He'll probably platoon. Um, you know, which he had always you know with the Giants been incredible against left-handed pitching, you know, WRC plus above 130. Uh, but you know, if he if he doesn't hold his own every day against right-handed pitching, you know, he's probably not gonna get every day at bats. It'll be interesting. Um, but injuries happen and depth is paramount, and you know, I'm sure uh Elliott will rake over in uh in New York.

SPEAKER_02 37:38

I'm sure they will. And especially, you know, you mentioned the thing about you know some of his struggles again right-handed pitching that was kind of kind of played into that argument of you know, for him against for him trading him is that you know, with the arbitration process beginning for him this year, he was only going to get more expensive. And you know, you do kind of wonder, you know, for an everyday starting corner outfielder that you know he does break lefties. I think the OPS is like 863, if I remember the number correctly, in his career, but against righties, it's not awful, it's like you know, high 600s, but you know, for your starting outfielder, you could want uh a little more. There's obviously, you know, aside from the Giants trades that happened, there was a lot of wheeling and dealing around Major League Baseball. I think that there is one we should probably at least touch on very briefly that also happened in this division with a certain team in Southern California. And I'm not talking about the Padres, and I'm not talking about the Angels. Terek Skooble to the Dodgers. Actually, no, I'm talking about Chris Bubic to the Dodgers. That's what I'm talking about. No, I'm just playing. Tarek Skooble, it kind of felt like one of those things where especially with Shohay's kind of like that lingering knee injury. Before that, it was like, oh, you know, maybe the Dodgers do their thing. You know, the Brewers and the Rays theoretically could, you know, kind of take this big swing, and we all get that notification. Tarek Scoobyl the Dodgers, and I I've seen some nonsense on I'm just gonna say this. I've seen some nonsense on the timeline. Not not critical like evaluation, I've just seen some pure nonsense, which it's always funny when you know the the brain rot kind of infiltrates MLB Twitter. But I guess just thoughts on uh Mr. Tarek Scoobyl to the Los Angeles.

SPEAKER_01 39:27

The Dodgers have a wealth of riches and their prospects are you know somehow one of the top systems in baseball while also being able to outspend in free agency and develop their own talent. Um, so yeah, they're they're able to trade away River Ryan and Zaire hope. I I saw some people kind of questioning the package. I have no questions about it. River Ryan should be you know a really solid starting pitcher for the for the tigers for six seasons. He has a lot of team control. You know, I know he's 28, almost 28 years old, and some people were kind of clowning him, you know, because he's still technically a prospect. But you know, uh I'll tell them just look at the stuff plot. River Ryan's a really good pitcher, and you know, Zahir Ope has a lot of talent too. So I think the Tigers are probably pretty happy with the return. As for seeing Terek Scuble go to the Dodgers, you know, it's it's ridiculous, and they're hoarding talent over there. And I hope the next CBA can uh can kind of address this.

SPEAKER_02 40:26

It's it's funny when just last night I was they had ESPN Sports Center just kind of playing in the background where I was getting dinner after the game, and you know, they put the rotation, like what the all-healthy potential rotation, and it's Skoobo, Glasnow, Shohei, Yamamoto, uh Otani, and then you go into the quote unquote others, and it's Roboleschi, Bubic, and Sasaki. And I was like, damn, look at that. I forgot Snell. Like, Sasaki's like getting relegated to the uh the others category.

SPEAKER_00 40:58

I'm like, this is like a legit number two, number three starting pitcher.

SPEAKER_02 41:05

Yeah, just the the depth that the Dodgers have uh accumulated has just been absurd. And again, kind of you know, pulling back the curtain a little bit, when the trade happened on Saturday, it was right at the tail end of Giants Padres, and within a third, like a literally a 30-second span, the reports trickle out that Scooba's going to the Dodgers. And then like 30 seconds later, the uh Jake Cronenworth hits a hits a walk-off single. So it was just a brutal, like, singular minute for for the Giants, both in just losing that game and then having for Giants fans having to see Scooba go to the Los Angeles Dodgers. As we as we kind of wrap up here, we obviously still have 49 games remaining in the second half. It's a lot of baseball left to be played. It's kind of just playing out the string at this point. This is a team that's still headed for 90 something losses on the season, they're 48 and 65, with deadlight deadline day having come and gone. So, the one thing I want to throw over to you is just, you know, as we wrap up here, as we're watching the second half, what are some of the things that you want to see? You're curious about maybe questions that you have with this team going forward, and just kind of you know, like what are you curious curious about as far as you know, what can this Giants team show you aside from the wins and losses in the offseason?

SPEAKER_01 42:33

Clearly, for me, is what can play Blade Tidwell do as a starting pitcher? I've been a Blade Tidwell fan for a long time, and I think he has more than enough stuff to start, and he has you know a wide enough mix, his sweeper is uh probably double plus big league breaking ball. Um and to be honest, I think he has the command to start. I know some people question it, some people think you know it's a it's a reliever profile, but he's succeeded all throughout the minor leagues um and is having a really nice season right now in triple A, and he's on the 40 man. The Giants are in need of some innings. Um, so it looks like Blade Tidwell definitely will get some run in the second half, and I'm excited to see that. Kind of same thing in the bullpen is what what pieces start to formulate and show that they can be part of 2027. There's some minor league guys who might be part of that equation. Trent Harris is a guy that I'd love to see also get some run um in the major league bullpen. Um, so yeah, I mean that's kind of the main storyline post-deadline is who who's gonna be there for 2027 who can be long term pieces and and contribute.

SPEAKER_02 43:42

Yeah, Tidwell is gonna be getting the start today. It's gonna be his first start in a Giants uniform since the team acquired him at last year's deadline. We're gonna see a lot of Carson Wisenhunt uh as well, presumably down the stretch. And I think for both of them, it's gonna be an opportunity to prove that they can stick in the rotation uh and not be kind of r relegated. To bullpen arms. One quick note on Blade Tidwell is that he did shave his head. Tony Vitello did not share the details as to why. But he referred to him as kind of like a Skittle when talking about him. He's got a rough exterior but a soft interior. And I was like, oh, okay. That is certainly a description. And then to the point about, you know, the bullpen, it is, again, it's kind of fascinating with this bullpen in that you look at the individual pieces and you're like, yeah, these are some solid guys. And then you look at the unit as a whole. It's like, oh, that's not that great. But you start looking ahead to some of the guys that can come back for 2027. Obviously, Randy Rodriguez is going to be coming off Tommy John surgery. Same thing with Rowan Wick. And I would kind of temper expectations just because they're coming off of the surgeries. Jose Butto should presumably be healthy for 2027 as well. And you know, I think you start looking at guys like Jason Foley and Sam Henches and then Keaton Wynne, Dylan Smith, like you start seeing like the foundation of what could be a very solid bullpen, and obviously they'll have to supplement it with you know free agency trades, waiver claims, minor league contracts, etc. etc. But you do kind of see the vision of what a solid bullpen could look like next year. I think one thing that I I mentioned Jonah Cox, I think one thing that I'm very curious to see going down the stretch as well is whether Daniel Susak will just kind of be whether they'll just let him be the everyday catcher now. Because Susak has like quietly had a very good rookie season. I think it it just amidst everything else that's happened, it kind of goes under the radar. And yeah, it took him 44 games to hit his first home, and now he's hit three in his last three games or whatever it is. But you know, the defensive numbers have been better than Patrick Bailey's on the season. His field and run value is higher, his framing numbers have been higher. He's been having a really good season. He's despite being a taller catcher, he makes some very athletic plays. You know, that you know, those kind of the bunt or the ball hit right out in front. He's very adept at making that play, firing over the first. I've been very impressed with what I've seen in Susac. And I would like to uh imagine as this season goes along, and this is no shade to Drew Kavanaugh, but I would like to imagine as this season gets to its conclusion, we'll start seeing Daniel Susack kind of take the reins as that starting catcher.

SPEAKER_01 46:22

Yeah, and I mean, like you said, it's been incredibly impressive. The defensive numbers he put up. Um obviously, you know, Patrick Bailey has hit a little bit more in in Cleveland, but if if Susak is doing that kind of work defensively, then it makes the trade a whole lot more reasonable. And you know, again, they got Carson Bullman out of it, who is supposed to be one of their, you know, now premier pitching prospects. Um, and uh it should be interesting to see Susak get like, I mean, we keep talking about runway, but you know, he if he can get the rest of the season as a starting catcher and kind of start to feel really comfortable in that role, like it's his, you know, hopefully he can get some confidence and you know continue to swing at swing it at the plate because the last few weeks have been have been a lot more impressive. There's you know, he came up and was really hot, and then there was a stretch of at-bats where it was just ugly. Um, and he's starting to look a little bit more confident.

SPEAKER_02 47:20

A lot of runway for the remainder of this season. We have unfortunately run out of runway for today. It's a lot of fun talking about the trades today, and you know, we don't get to see these guys, you know, some of these prospects, you know, Marquez, Mendez, we don't get to watch them on a daily basis. It's gonna be very fun to watch them as well as the Jackson Flores, the Carson Bowman start to matriculate up the miners uh over the next couple months and over the next couple of years. Justice Delos Santos, Matthew Canower, Splash Considerations podcast. We will catch you in the next one.