Polls, Damn Polls, and the Governor's Race

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley Institute Of Governmental Studies poll, shares his thoughts on the state of polling and the governor's race.  Could California elect its first Republican governor in decades?

Transcript

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 0:05

Welcome To another episode of Inside Golden State Politics. I'm Bill Bosky, former city editor and columnist for the Los Angeles Times. And with me here is Nancy Bosky, our producer director.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 0:20

And I'm Sherry Bebitch, Jeffy political analyst and self-styled medium Maven coming to you from trying to navigate. The hot mess that is the California governor's election through the meager and often confusing coverage of this wild West worthy race. thinking of one of the most famous political observations by the early 20th century humorous. Will Rogers quote. I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat. End quote. That's a perfect description of the current chaos roiling, the California Democratic Party. I guess it's true. Some things never change. Over to you, bill.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 1:17

Our guest, today is Mark De Camille, who is director of the Berkeley IGS poll. The poll is conducted by the, Institute of Governmental Studies at, Berkeley. Which I can say is a very fine group. I've had a lot of contact with them. Gone over there, had coffee with the, scholars and it's really good. Now. Mark has been, since 1968, he's been polling, California and he started out with a very famous pollster, Mervin Field who was. The pollster Supreme, relied upon by all. mark worked with MER for a long time. Now he's taken over and he is expanding the poll, IGS Berkeley. And he is a recognized authority on. Polling in California. Mark, I know you don't like to comment on other polling and all that. I understand you have limitations of good sense, good ethics and all of that, but what's happened is, I see it polling has thrown the governor's race into an unexpected. State of confusion. I mean. Complicated polling by the USC sponsors of a debate, which was supposed to be this last week, led to candidates of color being banned from Tuesday's. Debate. That's crucial. One that's really hurts. It really hurts them. And could you, without

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 3:06

public too.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 3:07

be trying any confidence, could you. Tell us the story behind this. You know, it sounds to me like the polling tale is wagging the dog of the electorate. Polling has gone crazy.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 3:22

It is not only the polls though, but go ahead, mark. We'll get back to this.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 3:27

Well, there's been quite a few polls obviously in the governor's race up to this point. we hadn't done a poll since last October in the governor's race, so it was quite a while. And we did a poll last week, concluded on the 15th of March. And, we found, you know, the two Republicans in the lead at, Hilton at 17 and Bianco at 16. Democrats were trailing slightly behind. There were three of them that seemed to break the double digits, Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer, while of the others were in the single digits. with Javier Vara at five via at four. ma Matt Mayhan at. And, the other candidates literally yi and, Thurman at one. that's the status of the race as we know it. would comment that on the other polls that had been done prior to ours they did not include the job descriptions that voters will see when they go to the polls, which in a race like this, because. Voters really aren't that familiar. That was one of the findings in our poll, is that large proportions of voters have no opinion of the candidates. so they're looking for cues other than just party, as to who these candidates are and what they stand for. I, I would just comment that the polls that did not include the job performance or the job rating, or excuse me, the job description of each of the candidates, You know, it, it, it kind of makes it a little odd or different because we wanna give the same cues that voters will have, when they're voting. And, especially for somebody like Bianco, Riverside County Sheriff, I think that job description helps'em a bit.'cause when I compare our polls to others, he seems to be doing a bit. and he's almost tied with Hilton 1716, statistically equivalent. and I would say those two are in the lead. there was actually a poll done by the California Democratic Party, which concluded this, past weekend. and it found pretty much the same results we did, and they did include the same job descriptions that voters will see. They had the two Republicans ahead. They had, Hilton at 16, Bianca at 14. And the same three candidates in double digits that we had trailing of the Democrats are Swalwell, porter and Steyer each at 10% with all of the other candidates at 3% or less. So as I look at those two polls. which were done, you know, I think in a similar manner, in the sense that it exposed the voters to the job descriptions and the parties of each candidate. They seem comparable, and I think those are your best estimates of what's going on in the governor's race. So it's kind of an odd situation where here we are in a. democratic state and yet two Republicans are poised, to capture the top two primary if the election were today, which is a very odd thing and, you know, obviously could change as we move forward. But our poll actually, if you add the, all the support levels of the Democrats. it totals 49%, which would be the share. And if you add together the share of the two Republicans, it totals 33%. So you see the, really, the, the characteristics of the state's likely voters pretty much by party in those numbers. The problem for the Democrats is the 49%, It doesn't break out for any one candidate in a big way With, in our poll that the highest proportion was 13 in the Democratic party poll, the highest proportion was 10. So I think they should start worrying.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 7:17

Democrats

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 7:18

if they wanna get into the top two, they have to start getting into the lead. Yes. I, I wouldn't, you know, we still have 45 days or so to go. Things can change. Hopefully events will make the voters start to pay more attention. but nothing has captured their attention really all that much up to this point.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 7:38

And that's one of the things, one of the interesting findings I, I found your poll, how how. Unconnected, electorate is in the election. And I think you're right in the end, I think that may hurt Democrats'cause there's so many more of them than the Republicans. why are they so disengaged less than two months or so the election? can you, with what is it, eight Democrats running around, shift the dynamic.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 8:14

Well, I think, you know, for the Democratic segment, I don't think because there's such a large number of them, I don't think democratic voters are getting a real clear message about what this election is about from that side of the aisle, whereas the Republicans seem to have a clearer message. That, you know, the Democrats have kind of run the state for such a long time. It's a mess. And we're gonna shake things up and make things better. I mean, that's pretty clear. the democratic message that's coming through is muddled, I think. And, think that's

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 8:45

you, mark? Tell

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 8:46

what message is it? Sher? Yeah. I, I don't know what it is. So, other than, you know. We asked voters, you know, what the top issues they felt, the next governor should address. And, you know, not surprisingly reducing the cost of living was at the top of the list. But after that, the Democrats just. Offer a, just a wide pan, a variety of other issues, none of which gets a huge proportion. I mean, they wanna talk about building more affordable housing, protecting immigrant communities, protecting the environment. they want it. Promote education in the public schools. They wanna combat homelessness, they wanna reduce healthcare costs. All of those are mentioned to some degree, but none greater than 18%. And so it's, it's a huge muddle of different issues that are important to Democrats, but none of the candidates seem to have captured the attention of voters, to raise any of them to the top of the list other than the cost of living.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 9:48

Mark, you know, looking at your numbers, and trying to analyze them. What struck me was the fact that Latinos were so low in, in the polling,

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 10:01

Too

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 10:02

I would think that, and, and, and that is, that is, also one of the factors behind this, dis dispute over, over, the debate and who's gonna be on the stage. The Latinos, if you look at the figures, they're really low. some of the, you know, one of the Latinos was former speaker, he was the mayor of the city via osa. Javier Becerra was a distinguished, member of Congress. They're really low and, the non-Latinos, are really high. What do we have here? Do we have the myth of the Latino vote or what?

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 10:46

Well, we, we included Latinos in our poll, actually made up 22% of the likely voters in our sample, which is about what I would expect in a primary election. They don't show up to the same extent as their population proportion. Among all registered voters, they're about 28, 20 9%. But in a low turnout election, I would think something around 22% would be about right. So they were included. If you look at the preferences of Latinos in our sample, actually Becerra and VI Raso had a slight lead,

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 11:18

That's

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 11:19

it wasn't very much. Besser only got 11, via OSA was at eight. A large chunk of Latino voters were undecided. know, in my experience in polling Californians and Latinos for many, many years, Latinos come to the party late in the game. Usually, they are late deciders. they have enough going on, maybe more so than most other voters in terms of just. Living their life and their family situation and their finances and everything about their life, they don't pay as much attention to politics. That doesn't mean that they won't eventually come out and vote and, and participate, they will, but they usually are late deciders in an election like this. So it doesn't surprise me that so many are undecided, and a good chunk of them are voting for the Republicans.'cause not all Latinos are Democrats. So. You know, that's, you have to weigh that in and that's a reason why via OSA is only at 11%. So, you know, it is what it is. These are, in my opinion, as accurate a poll as we can do. and again, with the Democratic party's numbers coming out this weekend, pretty much confirming the same numbers that we got, two different samples. Theirs was. 2000 register or likely voters. Ours was almost 4,000. you know, I, I would defend our, the, the, the polls. and I wouldn't blame the whole mess on the polling organizations. It's just the fact of the matter is the ethnic candidates are doing less well, than the others.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 12:53

I wanna bring up one point and tell me if I'm sort of, breathing something, I shouldn't breathe, but it, it occurs to me that if Kamala Harris. Decided to run. If Senator Padilla decided to run, if De of Attorney General Bonta to run, could have well been the case is that at least one, if not all three of the better known, those three would be at the top of the list, and they are all people of color. I, I just think the whole thing has been. In some respects, positioned or dispositioned in a way. There are other explanations for why, these, the people of color are now, below the cutoff link. And I see this whole thing as, as kind of. Interfering with the ability of voters to take full advantage of I am not one that would, feel comfortable with just cutting off because one person says, I've got the, the secret on how to get'em come cut off.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 14:19

You know, this has, come.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 14:21

I wanted Mark to, I wanted Mark to gimme his opinion.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 14:28

Well, I can't comment on speculation of how Kamala would've done, or Padilla, obviously, they're the better known of the candidates. I'm sure that they would've had built-in name recognition and probably moved them to the top of the list in a preference measure. But we didn't do the any measure along those lines. So

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 14:45

I'm

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 14:46

it's speculation. Yeah, no, I understand.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 14:49

that nobody has. Articulated that as a possibility. And also there were two strong within the Latino community, candidates ER and VI osa. And they most likely, and tell me if I'm wrong, were really taking votes from particularly, swalwell. And perhaps, Steyer and Steyer and Porter, that could have been a problem too. And then here's the third possibility. not sure Latinos are comfortable these days, given everything that's been going on with regard to the Trump administration, policy on people of color, quite frankly, frankly, I'm not sure they, they really wanna get too involved in it. Period.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 15:44

Well, I don't, I don't agree with that, Sherry. I think that. One of the things that we've, we've spent a great deal of time, all of the pundits and posters, a great deal of time on the impact of the, ICE raids, in the various communities. You know, highlighted by the raid in MacArthur Park, a while back. From whatever you see, whatever, reporters find out on the ground people are really upset, afraid. they're,

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 16:14

my point,

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 16:15

They're afraid to drop their kids off at school. So I'm saying, there's gotta be some electoral. Or some polling impact on, on all this has to be reflected, you know?

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 16:30

mark.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 16:30

Right. Let, well, let me comment on that. When you look at our poll, and again, we had the issues that voters wanted the next governor to address included on the same poll. so we can actually look at Becerra and Villa OSA's supporters their top issue after the cost of living, which is everybody's top issue, we're protecting immigrant communities. So. Concerns that they had their voters, Becerra and vi OSA's voters. Th those were the top issues quite different than these, those of the top issues for the other candidates. But again, it's a muddle when you look at all of the various issues that are importance to the different Democratic candidates. but for those two Latino candidates, protecting the immigrant community was. The second highest ranking, issue that they wanted the next governor to address. So clearly they would vote that kind of, perspective.. If they weren't afraid to vote, they'll vote, in the sense that, you know, to the extent that we think that they'll make up 22% of the vote, that's pretty normal. Sherry, it's nothing unusual about the number of likely voters that we captured in our poll. I don't see anything in the poll that would suggest that there's a depression in the, an abnormal depression in the Latino vote.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 17:48

You don't think people will be frightened, away from the polls?

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 17:53

I do.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 17:53

quarters of the vote is cast by mail, not in person.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 17:57

so.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 17:57

I mean in, in California, the Fri, the people that might be frightened would be, I think those that go to the polls on election day. it's a very small proportion. It's only, I think, that proportion, I'm not sure, but I think it's only about 15% of the vote now that actually shows up on election day. To cast their ballot at their local precinct, so we're only talking about a point or two. Even if there was some lesser turnout of election day votes by Latinos, it might only affect the results by maybe one or 2% of the total.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 18:32

That's what the person who comes in second needs, don't forget that, you know,

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 18:38

Well, they need every but,

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 18:40

so tight.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 18:41

Right. It's, it is, but you know, to me, the fact that there are eight democrats against two Republicans, you know, do the statistics break down 49% to 33%, which is what the party preferences of voters are right now. the eight candidates dividing up the 49% is not a good thing for the Democratic party.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 19:03

hell no. I mean, we, we all know that, and it also, it's, it's not a good thing that there are Latino candidates that Latino can vote for the Latino candidate, but that more likely will draw votes away from other Democratic candidates. Not so much the Republicans. Yes.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 19:24

side. You're right. Yep. I agree with that. The Latino democrats, you know, not all Latinos are Democrats only about, I'd say registered Democrats might be 58% or so. So, you know, they're dividing up their vote and I agreed with you, Sherri, that they are, taking votes away from the other candidates just because at the current. In our current poll, they're more likely to decide with BE and Villa Osa, but they're not. Those two candidates are not drawing many much support from the, from the other segments of the California likely voter electric.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 19:56

That's true.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 19:57

So where is that segment going, right now as you see it? Looking ahead a little bit. I mean, where you've got.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 20:05

I can't look around the corner Bill. I can only look, I look at the world through a rear view mirror. I, I do a poll and I look at what happened just now in our poll and I compare it to what's happened in our prior polls. And, you know, interesting things can be found when I do that. you can see that Tom Steyer's ad campaign has had a big effect. he was only at one per, he was only at 1% in our October poll prior to any of his ad campaign. He's now at 10%, so he's moved up quite a bit. and Hilton has actually moved up quite a bit and I don't think that is a result so much of advertising. It just seems to be. That his message is getting across to many Republicans and that's affected their preferences. but you know, most of the other candidates have pretty much stayed where they were. They haven't really expanded their base of support since October. I don't see a clear leader among the Democrats other than I could say that the three, you know, Swalwell, Porter and Steyer seem to be, you know, the ones that are leading the pack out of the eight.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 21:11

Mark, I'm trying to look back, to past elections, and, the temptation, among, journalists that say, say, there's never been an election like this, or This is, it's very unusual and all that. Could you look back and tell us, is do you see a comparable election? you know that.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 21:30

the election. The election where Gray Davis won the nomination. 1998 might be somewhat comparable, but a big difference between that election and this one. And the reason that's the difference is so large that the other candidates that were running against Gray Davis at the time, you know, were both, Democrats. There was, I think it was Jane Harmon and, Al Cheque, right? So you had these alternatives and they, they were leading, and yet they were. Kind of firing at each other. It was a, murder suicide among those two candidates, which then led, gray Davis to kind of walk into the nomination. So there was, you know, late movement in that election, with Gray Davis at this point in time. Really not leading. He wasn't seen to be the favorite yet. He ended up winning. But the difference in this election, I have to say, and this is important. Is that the two Republicans being ahead would have vastly larger implications on the governance of this state than any of the other two candidates that were running against Gray Davis.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 22:39

true.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 22:40

have two Republicans square off in a November general election would be. Astounding and it would change the course of California politics because one of the Republicans would likely become the governor. in, in a state that's so solidly blue, it it, the implications of the two Republicans being ahead is just profound. And, I'm not giving it the highest of likelihood of happening, but all I can say is, again, if the election were held today, that's what it looks like.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 23:11

That's very interesting because, that's the unexpected result. You'd have a governor in there who was a, a, a conservative person. you'd have all of this laboring by the, Democrats going for nothing. And, sitting in the governor's executive mansion would be a, Republican. That would change. Everything, it would change what's presented to the legislature it would change everything.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 23:42

but.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 23:43

I would also make one other point that if there are two Republicans that come out of the primary election, I would think based on my experience on historical turnout in elections, the Democrats. Wouldn't be much less likely to turn out in the November election if there were not a Democrat at the top of the ticket. Usually the top of the ticket is the biggest motivator for anyone to vote in an election, and if there were need no Democrats running at the top of the ticket, I think you'd see a much lower turnout than you would normally expect among democratic voters, which would then have implications on everything up and down the ballot, whether it's the Millionaire tax or. You know, whatever else is on the ballot that qualifies it. Whether it's an initiative even, you know, the other legislative races, the Democrats are trying to, you know, expand their number of house Democrats that win, in California that would be in fact. So to me it's, it's astounding to think about the implications of two Republicans making it through the top two primary. And again, I'm not one to say this is the highest of probabilities because most. People, I've, I've read Paul Mitchell's account, you know, he's run simulation says this is only about a 20, 25% probability. He's, he may be right, that's looking around the corner. I, I don't, I can't have the, I don't have that ability to look around the corner. When we do our final pre-election poll, you can have me on again and I can tell you what just happened, as we look at the election one week before,'cause that's when we'll do our final poll, but you know, I can't really comment on what's gonna happen next week or next month.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 25:27

a deal, mark, you're coming back right after your poll is released. Now I would like to, at a point of personal privilege, when I ask you both actually about something I'm following, and that is prediction markets and their possible impact. American politics, therefore, on California politics. some people argue that the way things are going now, the prediction markets such as, cash lease such as Polly Market will replace polling because young people in particular are more likely to get out there and bet on event. Then to sit down and define their perception of an event. What do you think about, prediction markets where you could bet on anything in the entire universe, including who's gonna be president, including whether or not we're going to go to Iran, including the price of oil tomorrow on how we vote and what we think in terms of California politics.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 26:38

Well, I think as well as California politics goes, it means a bunch of crooked fixed sporting events. Because of the betting on sporting events, will corrupt, sports and then that will carry

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 26:52

I'm

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 26:52

over.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 26:52

about politics. There's

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 26:54

I'm,

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 26:54

dynamic

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 26:55

I wait a minute, and then I'm saying that it will carry over to, to politics too. Has a, corroding,

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 27:03

that's the

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 27:03

a corroding effect and, I'm very opposed to it.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 27:08

Mark I, let's talk about the process. Your term. do you

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 27:13

Okay, well, it's two different things. Obviously. the polls are measuring and talking to people who are actually voters. We're trying to get representative samples, so I would definitely say. As you follow the polls, you know, certainly they move over time and they're just snapshots. So, we'll take another snapshot very close to the election, and usually the final polls are very much in line with what the election actually turns out in the, you know, prop 50 campaign, for example, last year. If you look at the. Whole array of polls that were being done on Prop 50. We came out last, or one of the last, I think CBS news did a poll in California and as did we in the final week. and what those numbers showed was that the earlier polls, like PPIC and so on, were showing. Numbers in the mid fifties on the Yes side, but as you got to the final week, the final sets of polls were showing number in the low sixties between 60 and two 62%, and it eventually got to 64. So. To me, those were very good indicators of what was likely to happen. If you just line them up in a straight line and put'em on a graph, you can almost predict that it's likely to get more than 60% when these final polls are showing at above what the earlier polls were showing. So again, I thought the polling industry did a quite a good job on that. Now. You know, the betting markets may have been predicting that all along. I don't know, Sherry, I wasn't following the prediction markets, but I have happen to think that most of them were thinking that Prop 50 would likely pass. so there might have been, you know, a bet of 90% chance that the, the s side would win. well that's nice. but it's different than what a poll finds.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 29:05

good in terms of getting money. It's lucrative if you get it right.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 29:11

Well, I suppose so, but you know, I'm not in that market. But, you know, it's interesting to follow because it's kind of a, a bet on the future. the polls aren't right.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 29:21

that is my, in, in many ways, my concern. And that sort of goes to what, bill was saying. this

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 29:28

I.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 29:29

basically a sneak peek into which may influence voters. Coverage stuff that we have not been dealing with before, at least not in terms of prediction markets and their influence and their impact. It may change the way elections and polling are subjected to ansis, the way they're talked about the way media coverages is. And you know that if the media. Shapes the story. Shapes the words, and it's more fun to analyze prediction markets. They can well the story.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 30:17

yeah, that's true. But the fact is that, the prediction markets, are going to, determine, I guess they're just, they're just out there, right? I mean, there's no indication that, this short-term phenomenon is, is, is going to influence, votes any more than it influences. Starting pitchers, you know, at, at a ball game. it's,

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 30:44

different dynamic though.

host-4ha0_3_03-25-2026_150737 30:45

it's not a different dynamic because it's a game. You have the game of politics, and you have the game of sports. And, actually the dynamic is very much the same. Political writers, always use sports analogies to, illustrate their stories. And, my thought was that's because they're so illiterate. That's the only reference they have is to, is to sports. Anyway, mark, this has been a good discussion. Appreciate you.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 31:16

Great.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 31:17

another one. Mark.

mark-dicamillo_3_03-25-2026_150737 31:19

I enjoyed it. Thank you very much.

squadcaster-9h5f_4_03-25-2026_150737 31:21

Thank you very much everyone. Stay tuned. Bye-bye.