Choosing Change?

We continue our analysis of what the primaries are telling us about the Democrats intraparty fighting.  We look at Trump's continued drop in the polls and his shaky record in primary endorsements.  

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host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 0:01

Welcome to another episode of Inside Golden State Politics. I'm Bill Boyarsky, former city editor and columnist for the Los Angeles Times, and with me is our producer director, Nancy Boyarsky

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 0:17

And I'm Sheri Bebitch Jeffe, political analyst and self-styled media maven, coming to you from the realization that I'm tired, I mean really tired, of watching our country spinning apart. The political divisions put it, at us are way wider than the 350-yard gash that nearly destroyed the Lincoln Reflecting Pool. My guess is that Trump's, quote, vandals, end quote, more responsible for our fraying democracy than any is blame for the near destruction the Reflecting Pool. This glass half empty gal will be watching how the general election campaigns play out. Will the faint buzz of kumbaya floating through this week's primaries begin to change things? hope so, but I'm not naive. The late House Speaker Tip O'Neill was right, quote, politics is local," end quote. Voters' choices will reflect the needs and concerns and desires of voters in each individual race. I think that's an important takeaway from the recent primaries. Over to you, Bill

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 1:49

Well, one thing, Sheri, is if the president offers me a ride on Air Force One I will refuse to take it. And if he asked me "Why don't you sit back here with everybody else," my aides, the press especially, I would refuse that too. It's hard to criticize anyone taking steps to protect the president

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 2:10

what it was. You're talking about his in and out of Air Force One. This has happened. Other presidents have done simil- similar things because there's been a threat or because Secret Service want them flying in the plane at that particular time. The difference is Trump totally, and his staff, or those of his staff who knew what was happening, just refused to bring into the situation press and the other members, including members of Trump's cabinet, who were in what is now being called the decoy plane, real old Air Force plane. listen, here's the thing. What the difference was between how the Trump administration handled it and how others, including Obama and Clinton handled it, was that at least a few members of the media were brought in and briefed on what was about to happen and why. There is tape of Donald Trump saying if I go, you go." Not even facing the reality

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 3:31

That's really very true, and I thought it shows what sacrifice he asks of his loyal staff when he even put his immigration hatchet man, Stephen Miller, on

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 3:46

the decoy plane?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 3:47

The decoy or death plane

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 3:52

I wonder if Stephen Miller knew what was going on. It would be a delight to watch him if he had no idea was happening. That's somewhat of a message. There were, I gather, two lower level staff people who went on the catering truck the president. I don't know where they fit them in. The whole thing is, shall we say, a bit bizarre, and it is not anything that he needed to have happen on a day when a- another has been released, which indicates his approval rating is down to about 33, and is not getting any air on any of the issues which were so important to him. Right now it seems to me that the media and I guess also Americans are treating him like a caricature, like a laughing stock, if you will. Is... I've never seen a president being treated way Donald Trump is being today. I'm not saying I'm crying about it, but I'm just absolutely gobsmacked.

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 5:15

Yeah,

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 5:15

lost the it's no longer that high, prominent, important office

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 5:24

One thing about the week's primary elections that I was very pleased with was the resounding vote for Thanksgiving despite the efforts of of state Rep.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 5:38

Hong

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 5:39

Francesca Hong to downplay my favorite holiday, or at least it's one of my favorite holidays. It's some days, some years, this really is my favorite holiday. But I def- her efforts to downplay that, she lost. And the person who won David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, who was a state rep and who also was a long time, elected official was a, won the election. And that was quite a surprise. It was a surprise to everybody, including our dear friends, the pollsters, who

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 6:19

Well, yeah. I was about to ask you what the hell happened? The pollsters had Francesca Hong pretty well ahead up until the last week or two of the election. I'm thinking of a couple of things, but I know what you're gonna say. You just think all polls are BS anyway, right?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 6:40

I think that they do tend to have a heavy BS factor in them. And I'm getting to think that of of prediction markets also. I look at those with a little bit of skepticism especially when

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 6:53

all should

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 6:55

people bring up the possibilities that, arsonists could be setting fires and then betting on the pro- probability of a fire occurring. So let's wait till the election results come in. What about the old-fashioned way?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 7:11

Which is what? Use your fingers to count? What is the old-fashioned way?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 7:17

The old-fashioned way was to ca- was to wait until the votes came in. And all the old experts said, "Wait till the votes come in. Wait till the votes come in." And because of our insane desire for speed and quick results we're now in a situation where we're governed by polls and we're governed by the prediction markets. Do those two factors have any impact on the results of an election?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 7:48

Well, there are some indications that people look at them and use them in making their decision. A couple of interviews that I've read seem to indicate... in one case it was an interview with a woman who really wanted to vote for Hong, like many Democrats I gather in Wisconsin, she was a little shy about Hong's ability to be elected the general election. And she said "I wanted to vote my heart," she voted for Crowley she perceived him as more electable. There's a new buzzphrase, phrase talking about that's making the rounds all of a sudden and all over, and it's called quality, which is, I think, a euphemism for electability. And that was one of the reasons, one of the reasons that in the end Hong couldn't make up that very very narrow margin. That margin was so thin that I have to believe that what may have cost Hong the election was her remarks about defunding the police and canceling Thanksgiving. The perception was that didn't to dumb too

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:19

electability is another word for being a lousy candidate. Now, for instance,

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:25

An unallowed again

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:26

Electability doesn't have anything to do with what a former candidate in Maine had a Nazi symbol on his chest. That doesn't really have anything... It has more to do with common sense.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:39

That's part of what makes someone perceived as electable. That is

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:44

Whether they are,

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:45

I think it hurt Hong

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:47

whether they have any brains or they're just plain old stupid

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:53

Well, the point?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 9:55

the point is that the reason elections are so interesting and exciting to people like us is you really don't know what's gonna happen until it happens. And the exciting part is following the changes and the twists and the turns and if if you have the opportunity to go out with the candidates, walking the neighborhoods, getting a sense of talking to people who run the campaigns, talking to people in markets, doing all of the old traditional boring things, and from that you get an idea of who's ahead and who's gonna win and all, that

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 10:37

Maybe. Maybe. On where you do your walking to some extent, doesn't it like prediction markets

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 10:44

It depends on where you do your walking. Your research tells the neighborhoods that are crucial to this particular election. When I used to do that kind of work before the old legs gave out and walked up those and down those valley hills I didn't just get out of my car and start walking. I knew where I was gonna go. I talked to people who ran the campaigns on both sides. I talked to people who were involved in politics. I got an idea of where the likely target neighborhoods would be, the neighborhoods that they were gonna concentrate for their campaigning, and and those were the neighborhoods that I would go on. It's not really going out there blind. It's using common sense, and it's also using your knowledge of the area. For instance, it's extremely important that a journalist... following these campaigns knows the area, has been there before knows the c-candidates and the characters involved. All of those things go into a mix of where you go to find out what's going on

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 11:59

Yeah I hear you saying, and tell me if I'm wrong, that, are better at predicting winners than pollsters are

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 12:08

No, they're not because jour- a journalist doesn't go in for predictions. I never predicted who would win. That was one thing I stayed away from.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 12:20

But did you predict it was stronger?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 12:21

I think any good reporter would stay away from predicting who would win. That's not really relevant. You don't think of who's gonna win. You think about who's doing what, where are they going, what are they saying, what kind of literature are they handing out, what are they saying on television? The, all those things are what you think of, but you don't don't predict the winner of a campaign unless you're, really foolish

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 12:51

If your editor insists, huh?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 12:53

No, my editor would never insist on that either. I don't think so

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 13:00

But let me go back just a real quick minute to the question about the polls, all of whom in both Michigan Wisconsin had the Democratic Socialist candidates running away with the election until the election, when they didn't run away from it. Part of the problem is the structure and the mechanism the debate, of the polling instrument it- itself. Apparently, this was particularly true in and also in Michigan. The pollsters themselves, when, you know, that you weigh the sample, and they believed that there would be a far larger turnout of young voters, and that those voters would go to the younger Democratic Socialists, and it didn't happen. And that, that kind of tweeted a problem for the pollsters. Interestingly, and I don't know if anybody even talked about this and what it might mean, but both Michigan and Wisconsin have open primaries, not at all in terms of the vote ours, if you will. Voters don't even register a political party, so I don't know how you get your sample. you hold your finger up to the wind. But that's certainly gonna skew something at some point. So much... I've always said and will always say that polls are simply snapshots in time, by time this second, the next minute, the next day, the next month, and things can change and change dramatically, and they did

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 14:52

I think that's very true and very evident. And somebody who's in the political business or business of m-managing campaigns or just being a fan knows that the polls could change in a minute or five minutes, or more likely in a couple of days. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. That it's a moment in time. It's a snapshot in time. And that's all it is. And I think they're of value. Any information you get is of value. And so polling information is part of the mix.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 15:26

Even if it's wrong

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 15:27

You study the polls, and you go deeply into the polls, who they talk to and all of that. The past record of certain polls. And from that you draw a conclusion. It's the same with the betting markets. That's very valuable information. Everybody knows, p- a s- there's a storm of people rushing to the betting booth to put their money on a certain candidate in a moment of hysteria. Now they may be driven by all kinds of things like at the races. They may be driven by having three or four beers too many. Who knows?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 16:06

Yeah,

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 16:06

it's not reliable. It's part of the information mix, but not

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 16:10

Without question. And you have to look at it that way. But I also think that part of the reason these campaigns were s- were so focused upon by media and picked apart, if you will, was because made better viewing, it made better reading, and it all hung on is, are Democratic socialists taking over American politics? No. As I, I said in the beginning, every race has to look at every race. Sure, you can find trends, you can find themes. It's clear to me that the Democratic Party is debating about the establishment, the old guys spending too much time in charge and they gotta leave. Change, a big one, a big issue. And, the demand of young voters in particular of moving into leadership positions, think we saw that. wasn't real- it was, of course, something to do with labels and ideological labels. the only common thing I saw in that dynamic was that there was a whole lot of yelling for change, whether it's progressive or establishment, old or new in the political arena. One thing I did see was that very interestingly, it was not a good time to be an older Democratic incumbent running for re-election. They got booted. Did you know that there are House incumbents defeated in their primary this year, and that's a high, that's a high number, and seven of them were Democrats. Now, that to me deserves to be put into the equation of what have we learned? What does it mean?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 18:26

What does it mean? What is where are we going with this demand cry for change? Where do you think it's taking us? Is it taking us to a smaller government Is it taking us to government healthcare? Is it gonna make our lives better, worse?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 18:44

Who the hell knows?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 18:45

Isn't that the big question though?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 18:47

That's theoretically one of the questions voters ask before they vote. But it, as you pointed out earlier, we're not gonna know what government even looks like until the votes are in. That's the bottom line

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 19:05

The race for mayor of Los Angeles, by the way, is getting to Very tight and very close and very interesting. We have two... We have the mayor, Karen Bass, and we have Council Member Lamon. And they're fairly close in the polls.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 19:30

There's a, a poll out today apparently. There is a poll. I just got a, a copy of a Karen Bass campaign fundraising email, which indicated that a Politico poll has the breakdown Bass 41%, Raman 35%. It's a six-point Bass is ahead. The question is it ahead enough or is it too close? It's not yet looking like, and it doesn't mean a thing, the very close elections that we saw in Michigan and Wisconsin

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 20:12

Bass suddenly, unexpectedly arranged for her opponent to be booted off the chairmanship of two of important committees that deal with homelessness, a major issue in this election.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 20:25

We know that for a fact?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 20:27

We know that Marquise Dawson her colleague and and member of the council said that "Yes, we are changing." She's n- she's no longer gonna hold those posts. She acted surprised, too. That was a sort of surprising thing for Mayor Bass to do, 'cause she's usually very quiet and soft-spoken, and here she are, is she gives her rival the boot.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 20:51

pointing out that it was she who initiated it. I'm not defending her, I'm just saying that I'm not g- it looks to me, and perception in politics is reality, that there was some little fiddling going on there that had to do with the mayor's race. But I'm not gonna be as firm as you are in your interpretation of the dynamic. It's not gonna help Bass, I don't think, that the perception may well be that she's been playing the political boss and is, as Ramin put it, the the avatar of the establishment of the status quo. I just think the whole thing is very dumb. As chair of the Housing and Homelessness Committee of the city council, has part of the responsibility for the uptick of homelessness this year Although, of course, she is only talking about the fact that in her district homelessness is down 49%. seems to me if you wanna her on her stance on homelessness, you connect her to what's going on citywide. already is connected with the fact that citywide homelessness has risen in the last year or so. Almost, they're not thinking ahead. That's what Trump's Guilty of

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 22:29

I think the mayor's thinking ahead. I think the mayor probably said, "Get rid of her." I don't,

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 22:34

let's do it

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 22:35

I don't need her on the city council. She had a lot of criticisms of Ramont. I don't need her on the city council, not attending meetings, holding up legislation,

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 22:48

Yeah.

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 22:48

Not taking

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 22:49

you've been calling me.

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 22:50

stance on that. I would say that, I'd say that there's... If I were the mayor, I'd say, "The hell with her. Out." That's-

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 22:58

think it's stupid, I'm sorry, a whole lot of reasons at this point in time. Why in the middle of a very hot political campaign? Why didn't hap- that happen earlier? I just think, politics perception is reality, and it's what's... I think now that I'm thinking about it, it's the, the public response to Boyle Heights is taking it in the ear on Boyle Heights. was a difference between the way she approached Heights and the way she approached the Palisades fire. But because of the Boyle Heights fire, people are now hearing once again, reading once again, about a really bad time in Karen Bass's first, maybe only, mayoral term. That's it. I... You can't in a bell jar if you're running for office, but you can try not to do s- things that make you be perceived negatively, unevenly, if you will. And I think Francesca Hahn understands that now, when six... remarks that she made six years ago on social media about defunding the police and about canceling Thanksgiving wound up having, I think, a very dramatic impact on the election, on her losing that election

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 24:34

Sherry, you used to work for a guy who was speaker of the state assembly. His name was Jesse Unruh. Now tell me how Jesse Unruh would've reacted to Roman's continued attacks on him if he were running for office.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 24:53

Well but Robin is the opponent. What is she gonna do?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 24:55

What would he, what, what would we have, what would he have done? What crummy office, what cr-

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 24:59

Raven

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:00

what crummy office would he have given her?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:03

Oh, he did that

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:05

how would he have exiled her? How would he have made her life miserable?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:09

Yeah. Thor Wakefield,

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:10

How-

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:10

hard right Republican member of the assembly, himself given an office on the sixth floor of the state capitol right next the cafeteria, and it was about the size of a postage stamp. That's what he did. And he said, "Yeah, I did it." They all knew that it was, the speaker's choice. So I don't understand what that

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:39

Do

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:39

to do. It's apples

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:40

you think, oh, do you think Jess would've put up with what Ramon's handing out?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:46

With romance what?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:49

Her criticism of the mayor

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:51

how have you not

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:52

Oh, she, oh, you're not-- She's not cr-

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:54

an election?

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 25:55

she's not criticizing the mayor? Oh, she's praising the mayor? No, she's criticizing the mayor, and I'm just asking you what your old boss, if he w- if he would've tolerated that.

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 26:07

he was running against

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 26:09

I would've said, I would've said, "No, put her out on her ass." That's what he would've done

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 26:15

He did. telling you that's what he did. And I'm telling you that s- at least a bit matter of timing and a bit of handling or not handling it. I don't, And he may well have decided if he was in the middle of a, a nasty race to either have someone in the Democratic caucus play that game just simply use it and throw it back at opponent. Sorry, I may be totally wrong, but I don't see what Bass is gaining, if indeed she's the motivation, the demand, behind a re- removing Rahman from her chairmanship

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 27:09

We got believe it or not, Hilton running for governor of California and Becerra running for governor of California. We got them on the same stage a few days ago in Sacramento, and we looked for differences between them. Now I was looking at the transcript of their meeting up in Sacramento at a political forum and I could see Becerra opposes denying medical care to poor immigrants. He absolutely denies that. Hilton wants to eliminate medical care for poor immigrants. Is there a difference? Are we seeing a difference come out as the campaign goes on between the two?

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 27:59

I gotta say, I haven't seen anything about the campaign. You found the transcript, I didn't. But of course we are. Becerra's not been endorsed by President Trump. Steve Hilton takes a much harder line on policy, on crime, on other MAGA-type conservative Republican-type issues than Becerra does. He takes a harder line on immigration Becerra does. Remember, one is a Democrat and one is a Trump-endorsed Republican. That's the big difference, and that's a... That's really something that's hard for Steve Hilton in California. It's it, that endorsement is, at best, a double-edged s- sword. It may bring Republicans out, all four of them, but it may also bring Democrats out, and independents who don't appear to like Donald Trump either. That's the difference, and in California it is an ideological difference, but it is more than that. And this is a state where it could well be that Trump's thumb on the scale, it could be damaging from Hilton. And don't forget, the numbers are such that Hilton has a heavy load to carry, if at all, anyway

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 29:34

Sherry, this is this has been a tough one

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 29:38

Yeah. I just wanna make one other point since we are, we're both, we were talking about both the primary elections and the mayor's race. If you look at what's going on, if you look at the dynamics of both races, I see the LA mayor's race as basically a microcosm the debate within the Democratic Party in particular, nationwide, in states, in localities, in congressional districts, and in the campaign for LA mayor, youth age, establishment versus newbie. It's not... and after all, it's not all that much ideological it is about change, not so much about ideology, about candidate quality, about electability. And that's why it's, there's nobody winning, not the Democratic socialists, not the old guys in the establishment, and we won't know the results, as you said, until the votes are counted.

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 30:51

Yeah. Maybe the good part of this past week has been to shake out Becerra and and Hilton out of their hiding caves and get them out in the open and and s- and see what they believe. I don't know. Certainly

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 31:05

This is unique. It truly is. And as I've said before, I don't think it's such a bad move by Viscera. He can only trip up, and he didn't wanna risk that

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 31:19

okay. Hey, talk to you next week

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 31:22

Right on. We'll continue this debate.

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 31:24

Okay

squadcaster-8e0i_2_08-12-2026_151145 31:25

Cheers everybody.

host-4ha0_2_08-12-2026_151145 31:27

Bye bye.