Sideways Market or Silent Recovery? Regional Booms + The AI Scam Alert

Is the New Zealand property market "stuck," or is it quietly preparing for the next big shift? While global headlines are heavy with oil shocks and geopolitical tension, the ground-level data shows a market holding its nerve—and in some regions, completely shattering expectations.

In this episode of The Week in Review, Debbie Roberts reveals why "sideways" is actually a strategic accumulation window, how to navigate the bizarre new world of AI scams at the Tenancy Tribunal, and which NZ regions have already fully recovered to their 2021 peaks.

Inside this week’s breakdown:

• The Global Ripple Effect: We look at the "Fuel Storm" and Middle East conflicts. Is the uncertainty creating a "buyer’s standoff," or is it the perfect time to negotiate?
• The Regional Leaders: While Auckland waits, Christchurch and Southland are already back at record 2021 levels. We unpack why these regions are the "canaries in the coal mine" for a national recovery.
• AI Hallucinations at the Tribunal: A major warning for landlords! We expose the surge in AI-generated scams and 100-page "hallucinated" claims causing chaos at the Tenancy Tribunal.
• The April 1st Wealth Shift: The 80% interest deductibility return is here, plus a 20% accelerated depreciation boost for businesses. We show you how to turn these tax changes into immediate cash flow.
• The KiwiSaver Hardship Reality: With a record $49 million withdrawn in March, we issue a critical warning for anyone on benefits: don't let a hardship withdrawal disqualify your entitlements.
• CEO Mindset: Why the most successful investors treat a sideways market as a "building phase." Learn how to act as the CEO of your own financial future.

Resource Links: 📅 Free Online Masterclass: Learn the mechanics of building a portfolio that works regardless of the headlines. Register here: https://www.propertyapprentice.co.nz/auckland-events/

💻 Website: www.propertyapprentice.co.nz

Transcript

 We are currently navigating a fascinating sideways market, a period where the headlines might feel heavy with global uncertainty, but the ground level data shows a market that's quietly holding its nerve. While many people are watching the fuel crisis and geopolitical shifts with caution, savvy investors are looking at how to restructure their debt and leverage new tax incentives to build long-term resilience. Hi everyone, and welcome to another episode of the Week in review. I'm Debbie Roberts, owner and financial adviser here at Property Apprentice. 📍 In today's episode, we are gonna cut through the noise. We'll look at how Kiwi families are adapting their property plans in the face of rising fuel costs and why some are choosing to hold tight to their assets for the next generation. We'll also unpack the record surge in KiwiSaver hardship withdrawals, and a critical warning for those on government benefits. Plus we'll explore a new trend at the Tenancy Tribunal involving AI generated claims, the latest 1st of April, tax and KiwiSaver changes that you need to know as an employer and the tough choices facing those who bought at the market's peak. It's all about making informed, calculated calls in a tricky market. So let's get stuck into the data. Marker Topic number one from 📍 Stuff on the 19th of April. Buyers and sellers push ahead as fuel storm looms over property market. So we begin this week with a look at how global events are hitting home. Property values saw a subtle national rise in March, but economists note that the market is largely tracking sideways with no clear direction in sales volumes or pricing. Currently national values remain 17.1% below the 2022 peak. Although, as I've said many times before, we're back to about the same national values as we were just two months before the peak of the market because the last two months before the peak were completely outta control with fear of missing out or FOMO. However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the resulting fuel price increases have introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty. Economists anticipate that sharply higher transport costs will weaken buyer activity in the coming months as households adjust their budget, and also as we head into the winter months, which tends to slow down the property market as well. Interestingly, this is driving a shift in mortgage strategy advisers report more clients are opting to split fix their loans across one, two, or three year terms, for example, to hedge against potential interest rate hikes. On the ground, real estate agents and regions like the Hut Valley are seeing high listing volumes driven by sellers looking to downsize, reduce debt, or move closer to work to offset commuting costs. We're also seeing a notable trend of relocation sellers moving to Australia, while other owners are choosing to keep their current homes as rentals to safeguard assets for their children's future. My thoughts on this are that it's completely natural to feel a little bit of that analysis paralysis when the headlines are full of global conflict and fuel price hikes. But notice what the smart people in these stories are actually doing. They're adapting, not . Whether it's moving closer to work to save on petrol, or working from home whenever possible, to split fixing their mortgage to buy some peace of mind. The key is to stay proactive. If you are a buyer, don't let the sideways market fool you into thinking that nothing's happening. The best deals are often made when everyone else is distracted by uncertainty, and if you're seeing more people move to Australia, keep an eye on those listings. A motivated seller who's already got their bags packed could be a buyer's best friend for negotiation opportunities. Marker Topic number two from 📍 RNZ on the 22nd of April. Benefit warning for KiwiSaver withdrawals. Our second topic covers a critical warning regarding KiwiSaver withdrawals. Financial hardship withdrawals reached record levels in March with 5,610 people withdrawing over $49 million. That's nearly three times pre pandemic rates. However, the Ministry of Social Development or MSD is warning that these withdrawals can have unintended consequences for benefit entitlements. While a one-off withdrawals not generally treated as income, periodic or regular withdrawals could be classified as income under the Social Security Act 2018, potentially reducing benefit payments. Furthermore, once funds have been moved into a personal bank account. They could be considered as cash assets, which could also impact eligibility for the accommodation supplement or for temporary additional support. MSD recommends anyone considering a KiwiSaver withdrawal, contact them first to explore alternative assistance. And my thoughts on this, this is a vital wake up call. Tapping into your KiwiSaver should always be the absolute last resort, not just because you're losing out on future compounding growth, but because of these hidden downstream impacts that you might potentially face. If you are on a benefit and you withdraw that money, the system could suddenly see you as having cash assets or even a regular income. So you could actually accidentally disqualify yourself from the very support that you are relying on. Before you touch that retirement fund, please speak to a mortgage adviser or someone at MSD 'cause there's often other levers that could potentially be pulled instead, like restructuring debt or accessing temporary support that don't involve raiding your future self's bank account. Marker Topic number three. From 📍 1News on the 21st of April, AI tells tenants she should ask for $40,000, tribunal hands her 80 bucks. In our third topic, we look at how technology's impacting the Tenancy Tribunal. Property managers are reporting a surge in applications written by artificial intelligence, ai. These claims are often excessively long, sometimes hundreds of pages, and feature complex formatted requests for exorbitant compensation, often in the $40,000 to $60,000 range. The problem is the bloat. These AI submissions often cite unverified information or they hallucinate overseas laws that don't even apply in New Zealand. This is significantly slowing down the tribunal pipeline and increasing wait times for genuine cases. Adjudicators are now having to sift through massive amounts of irrelevant text leading to frustration for both property owners and tenants whose unrealistic expectations are being skewed by their inaccurate AI advice. But my thoughts, I'm a huge fan of technology, but this is a classic example of more not being better. AI's great for drafting an email, but it doesn't know the New Zealand Residential Tenancies Act inside and out. When a tenant submits a 200 page AI generated report for something, which should just be an $80 repair, all they're doing is burning bridges and slowing down justice for everyone. For landlords and property managers, the best defense is still clear human communication and solid documentation. If you find yourself on the receiving end of one of these monster claims, don't panic. Adjudicators are already onto this trend and they value facts over word, salad. Stick to the evidence, keep it concise, and let the facts speak for themselves. You know, we are also seeing this popping up with people looking for help with property investing, where the information that AI spits out is often either incorrect or dangerously misleading and sometimes even unlawful in New Zealand. So as much as I love the fact that AI is helping a lot of people in so many ways. It's not financial advice. It's not the best place to go to for specific situations that are really important, you know, when we're talking about your money. So still highly recommend that you speak to a professional or an expert in that area. 📍 📍 If you are getting value out of this podcast, please open up your Apple Podcast or Spotify app right now and hit the follow button. It's the number one way to help us help more first time buyers and property investors gain access to quality content. 📍 📍 And if you wanna learn more about investing. Join me at one of our free online events called How to Succeed With Property Investing, where we focus entirely on helping you to build the right strategy and right mindset to achieve the financial results that you want for your future. As a financial adviser and experienced investor, I'll help you to navigate the current market with confidence and make smarter decisions. We are live, online and independent. We don't sell property. Go to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz to register for the next free event, and I'll see you there. Marker 📍 Fourth topic 📍 for this Week in Review tax changes Roundup. Moving to our fourth topic, there are several key financial and tax changes that came into effect on the 1st of April that all employers and business owners need to be aware of. The default KiwiSaver contribution rate for both employers and employees is now 3.5%, no longer 3%. Crucially, employers are now required to make these contributions for employees aged 16 and 17 as well. Previously, it was capped at 18 and above. Additionally, new Fringe benefit tax or FBT rules now offer more flexibility, allowing businesses to choose whether, whether to apply FBT or treat certain perks like gift cards as employment income with PAYE deducted. As we enter tax return season, don't forget about the investment boost. This incentive allows for a 20% accelerated depreciation deduction on new business assets such as machinery, technology, and work vehicles in the year that they're first used. Inland Revenues currently offering free introduction to business seminars to help owners navigate these changes. My thoughts are April's always a busy month for compliance and year end tax and all that sort of stuff, but there's some real silver linings here if you know where to look. The investment boost is a massive win for business owners and commercial property investors. Being able to claim 20% of the new assets cost upfront is a huge cash flow injector. But talk to your accountant before you go shopping to double check the rules around it. Whether it's a new work, laptop or an upgrade for your office, that's money staying in your business right when you need it. On the KiwiSaver side, yes, that's 0.5% increase is an extra cost for employers, but you could also look at it as an investment in your team's future. Just make sure you payroll's up to date so you don't end up with a compliance headache later. Marker Fifth topic for this week in review from 📍 RNZ on the 23rd of April, 2026. Property investors who drank the Kool-Aid are wondering whether to take a loss. Our final topic addresses the slow patch in sales, which fell 2% in March compared to last year. While values rose slightly this quarter, the market remains in a buyer's favor. This has left many people who bought at the peak of the market in 2021 in a difficult position. Particularly those with two bedroom townhouses, which have seen value drops of 20% to 30%. Many of these properties are massively cashflow negative costing owners 200 to $300 a week to maintain even with interest rates still currently sitting below the long term average. Economists suggest that owners should weigh the cost of holding against the potential to free up borrowing capacity for better opportunities. However, the recovery is uneven. While Auckland remains subdued. Markets like Christchurch and Southland have already seen prices fully recovered to peak levels, highlighting the importance of regional strategy. Look, I know a lot of you out there are feeling the weight of a property that is, that was bought at the peak of the market in 2021, and it's easy to look at a paper loss and feel like you've failed. But I wanna remind you of a fundamental truth in property, you only actually lose money if you sell it for less than it's cost. You. If you can hold on, if you could just wait for the market to catch up to the value that you already see in that home, you'll come out okay. In the end, property is a game of decades, not months. This isn't a permanent setback, it's just particularly a long winter before the next spring, the recovery might not be as far away as you think. The data's already showing us the future. Like some regions like Christchurch and Southland have already seen prices fully recover, and in some cases exceed their previous 2021 peaks. They're the canary in the coal mine for the rest of New Zealand. This proves that recovery isn't just a theory, it's already happening on our doorstep, and it's a sign of what we can look forward to in the rest of the country as the cycle continues to turn. If your property's costing you 200 or $300 a week to keep, maybe try not looking at that as dead money. Maybe it's an expensive lesson that you learned the hard way, but if it's not hurting you financially or preventing you from buying a better deal now, then I don't see a major issue in holding onto it until the market turns more in favor of the seller. If it is stopping you from moving forward, then it's definitely worth thinking about flicking it off if you're not already on interest only terms on your investment property, it's also worth having a chat with your mortgage adviser to see if that's an option for you to reduce your holding costs while you wait for the market to rise or while you wait for the property to. By lowering your overheads, now you are building a bridge that allows you to survive the current market so that you're still standing and ready to thrive when the next boom does hit. For some of you though, tearing off the bandaid and selling might actually be the best thing that you can do. That sale could actually be the first step towards your next success story, and if you purchased at the peak of the boom, you're probably already outside of the bright line tax period as well. Finally, let's remember that New Zealand property has survived every crisis the world has thrown at it. The eighties crash, the GFC, the global pandemic, just to name a few of the most recent ones. But every single time the market has bounced back and gone on to have further capital growth. So if you're feeling the pressure right now, take a breath and look at the big picture. Downturns generally don't last as long as recoveries and booms. Stay patient, stay strategic, and trust the cycle. So the final word for this week, the market might currently be tracking sideways in many parts of the country, but that doesn't mean your future's on hold, whether it's restructuring your mortgage for certainty or deciding to hold tight to an asset for the next generation. Success right now is about having the courage to look. Pass the noise and focus on the light at the end of the tunnel. Recovery's already happening in parts of the country, and it's only a matter of time before that momentum spreads. 📍 📍 If you are a property investor, you are the CEO of your own financial future, and every great CEO knows that the best foundations are often built during challenging times. If you are ready to stop worrying about the headlines and start building a roadmap to the next market peak, I'd love to see you at one of our free online master classes called How to Succeed With Property Investing. We'll show you how to navigate these sideways periods and turn them into the greatest opportunities of your life. We are 100% independent and Kiwi-owned, and we are here to help you win without trying to sell you a dodgy deal 'cause we don't sell property. So head on over to www.propertyapprentice.co.nz right now to secure your spot. 📍 📍 And if you found this episode helpful, please hit the follow button on Apple Podcast or Spotify. Stay hopeful, stay strategic, and I'll see you next week. Thanks for listening. 📍 📍 ​