How The Iran War Shakes Oil Markets And US Politics

The Iran war isn’t just a battlefield story, it’s a chokepoint story. When the Strait of Hormuz is squeezed, the shock doesn’t stop at oil prices. It hits shipping lanes, airlines, fertilizer and food costs, supply chains, and the political patience of voters already stretched by inflation. We dig into why a ceasefire can look stable on TV while the underlying leverage remains dangerously intact, and why that makes any “clean” victory narrative hard to sustain. 

We’re joined by Professor John Mearsheimer to pressure-test the endgame: can the US and Iran negotiate anything durable when enrichment capability, sanctions, verification, proxies, and regional basing are all tied together? Then we pivot to the fiercest argument in American politics right now: Israel. Alan Dershowitz explains why he’s registering as a Republican for the first time, citing antisemitism and a Democratic break with Israel, while Joe Kent argues the GOP base is tired of foreign wars and wants a more balanced US-Israel relationship. Along the way we confront how rhetoric shapes the debate and why certain phrases carry historical baggage even when used casually. 

Ian Bremmer brings the global view, connecting Middle East conflict to recession risk, energy security, AI-era demand for cheap power, and the quiet ways supply disruptions spread. We also explore whether China is the ultimate beneficiary, how Taiwan could become part of Trump’s bargaining, and why Gulf states’ tourism and investment dreams look far more fragile under missile-range insecurity. Subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review, then tell us: what should the US demand as the real off ramp?

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:46

It's a question of who is pulling the springs.

SPEAKER_04 0:49

That's the oldest anti-Semitic trope in history that Israel's pulling out.

SPEAKER_00 0:55

Most people in America just don't care. They're hurting. The economy is on a bad footing. They've voted for President Trump. They've voted for MAGA, the America First Agenda.

SPEAKER_01 1:02

We're in danger of moving into a world that looks like the Great Depression of the 1930s.

SPEAKER_03 1:09

Xi Jinping is going to do his level best when he meets with Trump to say, hey, you need to tell me that you oppose Taiwanese independence. And Trump's own advisors will readily admit privately they don't know what Trump will say.

SPEAKER_06 1:26

Well, coming up shortly, I'll be joined by a lifelong liberal who's joining the Republican Party to defend Israel, and a Republican is fighting for his party to sever ties with Israel. We'll begin with the fragile ceasefire in the Iran War. President Trump threatened to resume the all-out assault on Iran, ended instead with an indefinite olive branch. Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. naval blockade continues. How on earth does this all end? But joining me with his perspective is international relations scholar, Professor John Mir Shamba. Professor Mir Sharma, welcome back to Uncensored.

SPEAKER_01 1:58

Thank you, Piers. I'm glad to be here. How does this all end? Well, hopefully we'll get some sort of negotiated settlement. Uh it's not clear we're going to get it, though. I mean, at this point in time, we don't even have a ceasefire. Uh it looked for a while like we had a ceasefire, uh, but that's broken down because the Americans decided they were going to continue to uh blockade the strait, which is in effect blockading Iran, and the Iranians who had uh over the strait for one day reclosed it. And now we have a situation where both sides are seizing cargo ships or oil tankers in a tit-for-tat war. And we haven't even gotten back to the negotiating table. Hopefully that will happen. But I would argue, Piers, even when we get back to the negotiating table, working at a deal is going to be extremely difficult because the two sides are so far apart.

SPEAKER_06 2:57

Right. And the and the crux of it is that after a number of different aspirations that were espoused by the Americans at the start of the war, um, including regime change and so on, they seem to have centered now the Trump administration on we have to stop Iran developing a nuclear weapon as the purpose for the war, which means that the victory can only be achieved if that is established. And you can only establish that, it seems to me, if you can be seen to have provably destroyed or have surrendered Iran's enriched uranium. If you don't get that result, I don't see how you can claim to have stopped them developing a nuclear weapon should they seek to do so.

SPEAKER_01 3:39

I think what you say is correct. There are two issues here, as you pointed out. One is eliminating nuclear enrichment capability altogether, and number two, getting the uh uranium that has been enriched up to 60% out of Iran. Uh, those are going to be two extremely difficult tasks to do. I think they may be able to cut a deal where that 60% enriched uranium is moved out of Iran. But Iran is not going to give up its nuclear enrichment capability. And just to take this a step further, Piers, it's very important to understand that the nuclear enrichment issue is only one issue on the table. There's the whole question of sanctions, the question of reparitions, the question of who's going to control the strait of Hormuz in the future, and whether the Iranians are going to be allowed to have a toll booth in the middle of it. There's the whole question of what is the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah, Iran and Hamas. There's the whole question of American military bases in the region. I could go on and on. There are just a lot of issues that have to be settled if you can settle uh the nuclear enrichment issue, which is a difficult issue by itself.

SPEAKER_06 4:56

Do you think this the Americans have underestimated in a massive way the Iranian ability to control the Strait of Hormoose and their willingness to attack the Gulf State neighbors? Because it seems to me the double-pronged way they've gone about both of those things has been a very effective response to the military attack, in which they clearly faced overwhelming military superiority from the Americans and Israelis.

SPEAKER_01 5:26

I think there's no question that President Trump and the Israelis, and here we're talking mainly about Prime Minister Netanyahu and the head of Mossad, David Bornea, who was uh a central figure in selling this strategy to both Netanyahu and Trump. As far as they're concerned, they completely misread the situation. They thought that the United States and Israel acting together could produce a quick and decisive victory. They thought that we could launch a shock and awe campaign, decapitate the regime, and we wouldn't even have to worry about the straits being shut down. Of course, that didn't happen. But it's very important to emphasize that if you look at what uh Trump's advisors were saying, people like Vance, people like Rubio, people like John Radcliffe, who's the head of the CIA, uh General Kane, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who was handpicked by President Trump, all four of those players, key players in the decision-making process, thought that this was not going to work. So it's really a case where President Trump and the Israelis on one side prevailed in the decision-making process, and we ended up in this disastrous war.

SPEAKER_06 6:47

In terms of the economic and political issues for President Trump now, which he'll be weighing up, they talk about the economic damage that the blockade, for example, is causing the Iranians, but it's also, of course, causing, the longer the strait of hormous remains pretty well closed, massive economic issues, not just for America, but for everyone that uses that strait. But the political damage of the rising gas prices, rising energy prices generally, also the more slow burning rise in food prices because the fertilizer couldn't get through either. All this is politically very toxic for Donald Trump, isn't it? I mean, the polling already shows his approval rating uh hitting new lows. The the number of Americans that oppose this war is rising. Those two numbers will only get worse for him as this goes on. And then he's got the midterms coming in November. What do you feel about the political fallout from this?

SPEAKER_01 7:41

I think you're absolutely right that the economy is of central importance here. And the economy, the international economy, is in deep trouble. Uh and uh if things get worse, uh President Trump will be in even more trouble. And I think this is the principal reason that he decided to extend the ceasefire yesterday instead of going back to bombing Iran. President Trump understands full well that if he bombs Iran, Iran will retaliate by completely closing the Strait of Hormuz and shutting down the Red Sea as well. And this will have even further devastating consequences on the international economy. In fact, lots of people are arguing that we're in danger of moving into a world that looks like the Great Depression of the 1930s. Uh so President Trump has a vested interest in settling this war as quickly as possible. In fact, if anything, he wanted to settle it yesterday. And that's why he extended the ceasefire. Uh but the problem is uh he has no military option. He can't solve the problem with military force.

SPEAKER_06 9:00

Yeah, that is what's so fascinating about how this war has played out. I also think that for all the bellicose rhetoric he has about we're gonna take out all the power plants in Iran and so on and so on. The the truth about that, the cold-hard reality, is that Iran still maintains a huge number of ballistic missiles, and they could easily attack, as they've already shown uh a propensity to do, the uh oil refineries of the Gulf State neighbors, and they could go further, and if their own desalination plants get taken out in Iran, they could do the same to the Middle Eastern uh Gulf state neighbors. And if they did that, they could basically stop water supply in some of those states. I mean, it could be really incredibly serious, almost borderline apocalyptic for the people in those countries.

SPEAKER_01 9:48

Absolutely. There's no question about it. They can basically destroy uh all six of the Gulf states uh because they have the missile capability to do that. And again, as I said, they can shut down the Red Sea. You want to understand that a lot of Saudi oil is still getting out because the Saudis have built the pipeline away from the Persian Gulf, toward the Red Sea. So Saudi oil is coming out through the Red Sea. If they shut down the Red Sea and that Saudi oil does not come out, and they shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and no oil, no fertilizer, no aluminum, no helium comes out of the Gulf, this will have devastating consequences for the international economy. And at the same time, you want to understand that if we do use military force against Iran, not only are they going to retaliate, but they're not gonna throw up their hands and surrender. The Iranians are nationalistic to the core, and furthermore, they view the United States and Israel as an existential threat. And that means they'll fight to the last person uh before they surrender. So uh we have no war-winning strategy, and we have a powerful imperative to just shut this one down as quickly as possible.

Nuclear Enrichment And Impossible Demands

SPEAKER_06 11:06

Yeah, I said the same thing on Fox uh last night on the five. I I just think Donald Trump should get out of this as best he can as fast as he possibly can. I see no longer term way that this doesn't get a lot worse. Professor Mirschheimer, great to have you back. Thank you very much. My pleasure, Piers. Well, popular support for Israel is plummeting in the US, a fact borne out by poll after poll. More Americans now sympathize with the Palestinians than they do with Israelis for the first time in history, and support is falling across all age groups and all political affiliations, even Republicans. Many people tend to blame Tucker Carlson for this, but voters tell surveys it has much more to do with the destruction of Gaza and the war in Iran. It's a profound shift in public opinion. And whoever wants to replace Donald Trump as president, well, how to take a position on it. Governor Josh Shapiro and Ron Emanuel are both Jewish politicians who want to be the next Democratic president. They both blame Netanyahu for dragging the US into the Iran war. Emmanuel says it's time to stop spending American taxes on the Israeli military altogether. All of this was too much for legal scholar and longtime Democrat Alan Dershowitz. He announced this week that he's registering as a Republican for the first time in his life, calling Democrats the most anti-Israel party in the history of the United States. He may find that the Republicans are asking themselves many of the same questions. Joe Kent, a gold star husband of retired Green Baret, resigned as director of the National Counter-terrorism center over Israel's influence on the Iran War. And both Alan Dershowitz and Joe Kent join me now. Welcome to both of you. Alan, I never thought I'd have the uh uh uh the potential to introduce you as a Republican, but here we are. Why do you feel so strongly about this that you have renounced your democratic faith and gone to the other side?

SPEAKER_04 12:55

Well, the polls show that the vast majority of uh Democrats of every age oppose uh Israel. They have uh elected a congresswoman from New Jersey who is virily anti-Israel. They may be nominating a Senate candidate from Michigan who campaigns with a neo-Nazi uh who basically is a Hitler uh supporter. And as you say, even Rahim Manuel has now said that the Democrats should stop and the United States government should uh reorganize its relationship with Israel and treat it like any other um ally. And in light of what's going on on university campuses, uh the uptick of anti-Semitism around the world, I just can't be associated with a political party that has become part of the anti-Israel, anti-Jewish trend around the world and in the United States. So although I support many of the Democratic domestic policies, uh I will vote and work hard to make sure that the Republicans maintain control over the House, the Senate, and the Presidency to avoid the United States from uh moving the way most, many European countries have moved away from Israel, away from support for Western values, and in support for uh radical left-wing values. Look, if I could have registered as a Republican with a little asterisk, saying I'm basically a foreign policy Republican, I'm still a domestic Democrat, I I would do that, but that choice is not available to me. And so uh consistent with my values, I want to quote Ronald Reagan. I haven't left the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party has left me, and I believe is quickly leaving uh America, and that's why I am going to work against the Democratic Party, particularly uh at a time when anti-Semitism and anti-Israelism is increasing around the world. You mentioned, by the way, that uh so many Americans are pro-Palestinian. Let's be very clear. Very few people really are pro-Palestinian. They're anti-Israel. If they were pro-Palestinian, they would also be uh uh supporting the Kurds, the Uyghurs, they would be supporting the Sudanese, they would be supporting the Ukrainians. You don't have demonstrations on university campuses in favor of these other oppressed groups, only uh uh for the Palestinians, not because of who they are, but because who of who allegedly oppresses them, namely the nation-state of the Jewish people. So it's another manifestation of the increasing worldwide anti-Semitism, and I'm gonna fight against that.

SPEAKER_06 15:34

But what many people say to me, I've spoken to many Jews and Israelis in the last few weeks, and the common theme is that they think the current Israeli government has moved from any form of mainstream government into an extremist government, driven by the agendas of people like Ben Gavir and Smodrinch, that Netanyahu has followed their lead now, and that it's for that reason that there is so much rising sentiment against Israel as a country. Uh, and it's why Jewish people worldwide feel increasingly unsafe. Uh, a lot of them actually blame the Netanyahu government for this with their actions. What do you say to that?

Strait Of Hormuz Leverage And Economic Shock

SPEAKER_04 16:18

Well, I had uh did it with Bill Clinton when he was president, and he once said something very interesting to me. He said, the real problem with Israel is that it's a democracy, damn it. He said, they actually get to vote and decide who their leaders are, and they get to decide what their policies are. When I want Jordan to do something, Clinton said, I just snap my fingers and they do it. I want Egypt to do it, they do it. Uh if I want Saudi Arabia to do it, they do it. But if I want Israel to do it, well, we'll have to poll this. We have to get the small cabinet, the big cabinet, we'll have elections. Israel has had more elections in the last 10 years than any other democracy. It's a vibrant democracy. And tragically, people like Ben Gavir and Smutrich, who I despise and wish weren't in the government, are required by Netanyahu to form a government. I hope you're right. I wish you're right, that the anti-Israelism and the anti-Semitism that's developing around the world is simply a function of Netanyahu being a leader. I don't believe that. I think that's become the latest excuse and cover for anti-Semitism. Anti-Zionism has become a cover. And remember, much of the opposition is anti-Zionist. They're anti-the concept of the existence of a nation-state, an independent nation-state for the Jewish people. And as long as there is an independent nation-state, we will see increasing anti-Zionism. And I'm going to fight that regardless of who the Israeli electorate vote to be their prime minister.

SPEAKER_06 19:41

Okay, Joe Kim, welcome back to Uncensored. What's your response to Alan Derschwitz?

SPEAKER_00 19:47

I think just in general, Americans, especially the Americans who voted for Donald Trump, who represent the majority of Republicans, are sick and tired of having these discussions about foreign countries, whether it's Israel or anyone else. But Israel right now has a outsized influence on our foreign policy in the Middle East, which has catapulted us into this current conflict with Iran, which helped drive us into the tragic Iraq war. So look, I think Americans want our government to focus on our problems here in America. Drive around any American city, you're going to see poverty, despair. Those are the issues that people want to focus on. They don't want to focus on, you know, who's running the Israeli cabinet or what the foreign policy preferences are of the Israeli government to drive us into the next series of conflicts. So I think that's why you're seeing so many people who came out and voted for President Trump when he campaigned on putting American interests first. I don't think we need to get rid of any kind of, you know, relationship that we have with Israel. I don't think this is an Israeli versus Palestinian issue. I think what happens between the Israelis and the Palestinians is quite frankly their business. I think most Americans would agree. I think we just need to have normal relations with Israel, like we would with any other country. But right now, our relationship with Israel is so off-balanced that you are seeing a lot of people putting this issue front and center because the war in Iran and the wars in the Middle East for the last two decades plus have consumed so much blood, so much treasure, and just so much attention from our leaders that many people, especially on the Republican side, are saying this is out of whack. We need our leaders to prioritize us. And I think that's what you're going to see in the next election cycle, not just the midterms, but especially as we have an open primary in 2028 for the presidency.

SPEAKER_04 21:28

Let me make one correction. Let me make one correction voice just, and that is Israel was opposed to the United States getting into the Iraq war. I know that. I was in the office of Prime Minister Sharon when he personally told me that he had spoken to President uh Bush and had urged him not to send American troops uh into Iraq. Israel was opposed to the Iraq War. It is in favor of trying to get regime change in Iran, because Iran is existentially threatening the existence of Israel. But uh uh when it comes to Iraq, that's very, very different. And and you know, Israel has been a great ally of the United States, and uh over the years, uh it's been one of the few people that the United States can count on uh for everything. And the major function that the United States has had recently is to stop Israel. It stopped Israel when it bombed the uh nuclear reactors, it told Israel it has to stop, Israel wanted to continue. Uh when it had it ceasefire recently, it urged, it demanded that Israel stop its war in Lebanon. So uh the United States has been a break on Israel, and so Israel hasn't really influenced the United States. The United States has much more influenced the activities, even the self-defense activities of Israel.

SPEAKER_06 22:50

But I but Alan, I would say I Alan, I I just don't think that's right when it comes to the Iran war, because we know from the big New York Times deep dive last week that Benjamin Netanyahu, on a seventh or eighth trip to the White House in a matter of months, sat in the situation room at the White House with the head of Mossad joining on the big screen and and sold Donald Trump the idea that it there was a chance to decapitate the leadership in Iran, and that as a result, the IRGC would collapse from within, the people would rise up, and they'd all be too distracted to even think about the straight of Hormous. Well, the first bit happened, uh, and there's no doubt the Americans, I think, joined in at the behest of Netanyahu because we heard it come out of Marco Rubio's mouth. He said the reason American forces preemptively changed, then he then he withdrew that. Yeah, but yeah, but I tend I I tend to believe what the Secretary of State in America says publicly when he's first asked, rather than what he's told what he should be saying. But Marco Marco Rubio is not a stupid man. He's probably the most competent person in that entire cabinet. He's brilliant. I think he's a very good thing. He made it right, right. So we're all agreed he's brilliant. So a brilliant man does not say the opposite of what he actually believes. And he said to us clearly on camera that America preemptively struck in Iran because Israel had told them that they were going to attack Iran, and they knew that if that happened, Iran would attack American interests. So they got in first.

SPEAKER_04 24:33

I agree with you the timing was determined. It's a question of who's Well, it's also about who's putting it. That's the oldest anti-Semitic trope in history that Israel is pulling that the Jews are pulling the strings. Nobody tells Trump what to do. Trump decides what to do. What Israel said, and what the United States together said is we have intelligence that all these people are meeting in the same place, so this is the time to do it. But the United States and Donald Trump did not start a war based on Israel's interests. They started a war based on American interests. Jews comprise 2% of the American population, half of whom don't even support Israel. Muslims and Arabs are 1.3 percent. Trump complains, and to me he complains. Why don't Jews vote for me? I'm so good. Why don't they vote for me? Trump doesn't go to war in order to satisfy Israel's legitimate interest rather than the legitimate interest of the United States. Of course, it's part of Nataneu's job to persuade President Trump that it's in Israel's interest and the United States' interest to try to decapitate and to destroy Iran. They are an existential threat to America's interests and to America's allies. There was miscalculation. They are stronger and more determined than anybody thought. And the Gulf of Harmuz, by the way, the answer to the Gulf of Harmuz is that it has to be, there have to be ways of circumventing the Gulf of Harmuz and of having an oil supply. We cannot end this war, allowing Iran to maintain control over what is now an important waterway. It should cease to be an important waterway, which is why I have urged right from the beginning that the United States must control the straits and say to Iran, look, either everybody goes through or no one goes through. That was the message I sent in my appear. That's to what I told people in the White House. That Iran can't be in control. And the end of this war may be that the Gulf of Hormuz will be closed to everybody and we'll have to figure out other ways of getting the oil to Asia. That will be a good thing.

SPEAKER_06 26:48

Well, that will be a total disaster for everybody. But I'd also make a wider point, Alan, which is the first time. No, I don't think so. One of the reasons. One of the reasons I think that Israel's been getting increasingly unpopular is because anyone that dares to criticize the Israeli government, and I stand by my suggestion that Benjamin Netanyahu has been pulling some strings with Trump because he managed to persuade the fourth American president. Well, let me finish my point. And I think I should be allowed to use that phrase. I shouldn't be allowed to use that phrase without you calling me anti-Semitic. I don't think so. I think you know I'm not anti-Semitic.

SPEAKER_04 27:22

No, no, I'm not, by the way, I would never call you anti-Semitic. You're a friend of the Jews, you're a friend of Israel. What I'm telling you is something historical, that the phrase pulling the strings is a trope and it shouldn't be used. And I wish you would use other terms. Put pressure, that's fine. If you're pulling the strings, you know, having a puppy that's that should not be permitted. And I I look, I like you very much, and I support you all the time, but I criticize you for using that term. Please don't use that term. It's historical. It depends if other people say.

US Support For Israel Starts Sliding

SPEAKER_06 28:00

Alan, it actually depends if people are actually pulling strings. And I do think Netanyahu has been doing that. Let me bring in Joe Kent. I mean, Joe Kent, this is one of the terms. Well, I'll use the term I feel is appropriate. Joe Kent, I mean, this idea phrases terms.

SPEAKER_04 28:17

And then I'll criticize you. You can say what you want, and I can say what I want. That's what the open marketplace is all about.

SPEAKER_06 28:26

A hundred percent. We are, and especially on a show like Anson said, you're entitled to your opinion. We agree to this. The use of a phrase, I'm entitled to it too. Yeah. Joe Kent, uh you know, I do believe that there's been enormous, enormous pressure, Joe Kent, from Benjamin Netanyahu uh to literally try and dictate what America would do. And I think they he see he did it, he tried to do it with uh Obama, he tried to do it with uh with Joe Biden, and he failed. We know that from uh Anthony Blinken, who told us that he tried, and both times the American president said, I'm not coming with you if you attack Iran, and Israel did not attack Iran in either eventuality. So we we know that here he found a president that would go along with it. Um and it's turned into, I think, a bit of a disaster here. What is your reading of that?

SPEAKER_00 29:15

Yeah, I would more accurately describe it as an echo chamber that was created around President Trump. So what the Israelis do a very effective job of is they do punch way above their weight class. The Israelis, and this is on us, this is on the U.S. government's uh, this is our fault, we give them more access than they should have, than any foreign country should have. So what I witnessed over the last year was official engagements from members of Benjamin Netanyahu's government, the Israeli government, come and have official engagements with members of our government and say things like Iran can't have any enrichment. The policy has to be zero enrichment. When in fact, President Trump had just said the policy was no nuclear weapon. And you'll see President Trump echo that in his talking points now. And the former Supreme Leader, before we killed him, agreed with that. And that got both President Trump and the Supreme Leader to the negotiating table. And so for almost a year, we saw constructive negotiations between us and the Iranian government. This was a direct threat to the Israelis. The Israelis told us this much. The uh uh Mossad director David Brnaya specifically said that their goal was regime change in Iran. They weren't very shy about that whatsoever. And so they used their access to official channels, to official through official channels to circumvent the intelligence community because anytime that the Israelis said the Iranians are two weeks away from a nuclear weapon, they're making a nuclear weapon, the U.S. intelligence community, we would go, we would do our due diligence, we would check that, and we would find that the Iranian internal prohibition on developing a nuclear weapon was still holding. As a matter of fact, the Iranians were also withholding their proxies from attacking us as well. That's what the U.S. intelligence community agreed on. D and I Gabbard testified that to that publicly twice in front of Congress. The Israelis, though, used their influence to circumvent the intelligence channels, and then they also had their surrogates within the media come and echo to President Trump via Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, and say, hey, the red line is zero enrichment. And they said it enough, they made it repetitive enough through multiple avenues that President Trump was led to believe that his red line has to be zero enrichment. To take the issue off the table, we conducted Midnight Hammer, which totally obliterated their ability to enhance and enrich uranium. But then the Israelis came right back and said, hey, no, there's still more uranium there. You have to go in and physically get it, you have to control it, because the goal for the Iranian the Israelis at that point was still regime change. And so they used their outsized influence on our government to drive this war. And when they thought they weren't going to get the war, they then said, We're going to go in and we're going to conduct attacks against the Iranians. We're going to target their supreme leader, which we knew from studying the intelligence and Iranian doctrine over the last several decades would result in the Iranians then attacking our bases in the region. So Marku Rubio is 100% accurate when he said there was no imminent attack against us being planned by the Iranians. The only thing that was imminent was the Israelis conducting that attack. That drove us into this conflict. And that should make every American take pause and think, what is our relationship with this country of Israel? Why are we letting them drive us into yet another war in the Middle East? How vital is it that we have control over the Straits Behornes?

SPEAKER_06 32:22

Alan, hang on one second. Sure. Hang on, but before you respond, I want to play, I think it's a good time to play the Rahm Emanuel comments on the Bill Maher show uh on Friday, which were very interesting about why he believes uh America should no longer subsidize Israel uh militarily. Let's take a look at this.

SPEAKER_02 32:40

We don't subsidize Great Britain buying weapons, we don't supply supply or financial assistance to Japan. Israel's a very wealthy nation. There should be no more taxpayer support for what they want to do. And they get the same deal that any one of our allies do. They have to abide by the laws of the United States if they're gonna buy X weapons, and that's how it should be constructed. Jake's point, and I agree with this, is the Prime Minister went to this president like he's gone to four other presidents. And every one of the other presidents said, not a chance are we doing that because the equities are not worth it. This president bought it. He has responsibilities of commander-in-chief, and I think he made a big mistake for it. Do you disagree with Rahm Emanuel?

SPEAKER_04 33:18

Not greatly. Not greatly. Uh the United States told Menachem Bagan not to attack the Iraq nuclear reactor. They told uh Eyot Omer not to attack the Syrian nuclear reactor. In both cases, Israel decided what was best for its own interest. As Omer told Bush, I am the president, I am the Prime Minister of Israel, you're the President of the United States, you do its best for your country, I do what's best for my country. In both cases, they destroyed nuclear reactors. Uh if Iran had if Iraq had had nuclear weapons at the time of the Iraq war, it would have been devastating. So, you know, Israel has acted very independently. As far as Israel getting aid, remember, it's a two-way street. Israel gets military aid, which it must spend on American companies, helping them to develop both American and Israeli weapons. Let's remember some of the most important weapons used both in uh in Israel and the Middle East and used by Ukraine were developed jointly between Israel and the United States. The relationship, the military and intelligence relationship between Israel and the United States is a two-way street. Yes, Israel is a small country, the United States is a large country, and Israel punches above its weight, to quote your guests, when it comes to providing intelligence, when it comes to providing military aid, helping to develop Iron Dome and other kinds of information. So it's an incredibly mutually productive alliance that should continue. Now, should Israel get special treatment? Every country is treated differently. Israel gets military aid, but it must spend that aid in the United States on American companies, which it then uses to help to develop materials that are beneficial to both countries. So it's complicated and it's nuanced, and it shouldn't go back to the notion of somehow Israel is pulling all the strings, Israel is making all the decisions. The United States makes decisions that are essential to its survival. That was true of President Reagan, that was true of President Bush, that's true of President Trump, it was true of President uh Clinton. And and and no Israeli ever tells America what to do. America does tell Israel what to do. Oftentimes Israel would like to go further, and America says it can't. Sometimes Israel disobeys, as it did with Syria and Iraq, to the benefit of the United States. But most often it complies with American demands, as it has in Lebanon and as it did in Iran.

Dershowitz Switches Parties Over Israel

SPEAKER_06 35:57

I mean, what was clear from the New York Times speech, whichever phraseology you want to use, the reality is that the Israelis in that meeting in the Waiha situation were presented a series of events to Trump, which many of Trump's own people highly disputed. In fact, some of them found it ridiculous. But they presented with a sequence of events which simply hasn't materialized. So however we want to categorize it or describe what happened, Adam, the truth is that Trump went all in on the Israeli playbook for what would happen if they attacked the leadership in Iran and what would then follow. And what has followed has been nothing like what they said. And in fact, what has happened is Iran could come out of this. It could come, well, sure, but Iran could come out of this more radicalized, more battle-hardened, more emboldened because they now know they can control the Strade Formous in a way that paralyzes the global economy, and they can put all the Gulf states on notice that they can destroy their business model in a heartbeat if they want to. These are things that were not as a reality before this. Yeah, but this was not this was not. Of course they were.

SPEAKER_04 37:11

Of course they were there as a reality. They were always there as a reality. They just hadn't happened yet. They were there as a reality. I think of 1935, Nazi Germany, if her if if if if Churchill had done what Trump did to uh Iran, if he had destroyed their rocket capacities, destroyed much of their military, the Second World War might have been avoided, even if Germany wasn't completely destroyed. Setting back Iran the way the United States and Israel did may have prevented responses. As was said by Mayo Tse Tung once about the French Revolution. It's too early to tell. I'm not suggesting it takes 200 years. I am suggesting it's going to take some months and some years before we see the benefits to the world of what the United States and Israel did in destroying the facilities to send rockets, Israel's destruction of Hezbollah, Israel's destruction of Hamas. This will, I think, tend toward a greater peace in the Middle East and in the world. No, it didn't get regime change. That's too bad, because as Mr. Mirschimer and others have said and shown, Iran will never give up. The only answer, the ultimate answer to what's going on in the Middle East and the world is regime change. There must be a democratic regime installed in Iran over time. It will take time, but it's a goal that should never be given up. We should not ever give up on changing what is the most dangerous regime in the world since the end of World War II.

SPEAKER_06 38:50

Okay, Jack and just finally, on uh democracy, uh the polymarket, prediction market says about the Republican presidential nominee to 2028. So this is life after Trump. They've got uh$575 million in this market. J.D. Vance remains the front runner on 39%, but his lead is dropping. Marco Rubio just behind him on 20%. Tucker Carlson is on the list at 5%, third on there, then Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. Um it's been quite interesting to watch J.D. Vance and Rubio kind of try to sit out this war in terms of any too much public pronouncements about it. Almost like they know this could become a real sword of Damocles for the Republican candidate in 2028. Is that your sense about what's going on here?

SPEAKER_00 39:43

Yeah, this is gonna be a major issue. I mean, with voters, I think, under the age of 50 and the polling showing that that margins moving even more. Look, people don't want to hear these fiery debates anymore about why it's you know the eve of World War II and we need to go spread democracy and do regime change in yet another country in the Middle East. Again, most people in America just don't care. They're hurting, the economy is on a bad footing. They voted for President Trump, they voted for MAGA, the America First Agenda, to do just that, to actually put America first. And now we have a lot of that base that is furious right now because they feel like they were they were lied to, and our country, once again, is prioritizing foreign policy and foreign wars that aren't directly in the American people's interest. I think it's it's very interesting and important for those of us that are deeply steeped in counterterrorism and foreign policy to discuss was Iran an imminent threat. However, most Americans know that Iran was not an imminent threat, and they're not they're not dealing with that in their daily lives. What they're dealing with is the cost of living, how unsafe and unclean our cities have become. That's what they're worried about. And so this is going to be a major issue for anybody in 2028. They're gonna have to show how they'll actually prioritize the security and the progress and just the uh I think affordability and quality of life for the American people.

SPEAKER_04 40:56

I agree. Yeah, and the reality is that putting America first is very important. Yeah.

SPEAKER_06 41:02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 41:03

The reality is that alliance with Israel puts it first.

SPEAKER_06 41:08

Yeah, that's your position. I think the problem is that the polling is so bad. That's why uh for Trump personally, the approval rating is is is crashing. And the the We have to change that.

SPEAKER_04 41:19

That's why I joined the Republican Party to help that.

SPEAKER_06 41:23

Well, maybe they'll see you as the unlikely savior, the Republican Party, Alan, which would be most entertaining.

SPEAKER_04 41:28

Not a savior, but somebody who at least wants to put a little bit of his thumb on the scale.

SPEAKER_06 41:33

Yeah, but I would like a bit of a thumb on scale of this Israeli government too, which I think is a lot of the problem in the perception of Israel around the world. And I feel that not just because I think it, but because many Israelis have told me that, and they're incensed about what Netanyahu Ben Given's.

SPEAKER_04 41:50

If enough Israelis think that they will change because Israel's a democracy. So let's see if the Israelis can agree with that. And if they do, there will be a new election. That's the nature of democracy. That won't happen in Iran, but it will happen in Israel.

SPEAKER_06 42:04

Yeah. On that note, uh, we can all salute democracy. Thank you both very much indeed. Thank you. Well, joining me now is the president of the Eurasia Group, Ian Bremler. Ian, welcome back to Uncensored. Um, you've got a very formidable analytical brain when it comes to complex foreign affairs. Can you get your head around what is actually happening in Iran right now with this war?

SPEAKER_03 42:32

Well, uh in Iran is a little more challenging, Pierce, since there's asymmetric information out there. The Iranians have a much better sense of the pressure that Trump is under uh to get out of this war than the Americans do about the Iranian position, and that is a problem, right? To try to try to have a war uh end and also get an agreement done. I I think the two sides have been talking to each other uh through Pakistan consistently, uh, including today. Uh so I think that there's still very much a possibility that these uh second round of talks uh do come together in Islamabad relatively soon. There has been progress uh between uh the two countries on the nuclear file, on getting uh the enriched uranium stockpiles out, and on preventing the Iranians verifiably uh from engaging in any enrichment going forward for an unspecified, as of now, period of time. The Americans have also given up on a few things, like the ballistic missiles. Uh Trump is saying that that's something that the regional states have to discuss and negotiate with Iran. That's not America's issue, as well as Iran's support for proxies across the region, which is uh frankly less urgent than it was uh a year ago, given all the damage that has been done by Israel and by others uh against uh the Iranian proxies uh in the region. But I mean, the reality is that this strait is still uh blocked. Uh the Iranians still have leverage over it, and even though it would be a lot worse if there was active fighting, every day this continues is a matter of weeks, frankly, that we're gonna have the all living with the economic damage. Uh, and it is really piling up.

SPEAKER_06 44:23

And and do we really know how damaging this already has been? Or is there, as you say, is there like a delayed response here to the global economy? And many people writing quite, you know, really quite intense pieces now about we could be on the verge of a massive recession, if not a depression, because of all this, because the real fallout from it hasn't been properly factored in yet. And the markets have been actually remarkably resilient so far, but that that may not continue.

SPEAKER_03 44:55

So I was in Washington a lot of last week uh with the IMF World Bank meetings, and and this is where all of the world's finance ministers, central bank governors are coming to DC and they're having conversations in the midst of uh one of the most overconfident groups of folks in the world today, uh, inside Washington. Um, and look, some of this is because people don't want to criticize Trump publicly inside Washington, um, and especially not in the administration uh among Republicans, among uh financial supporters, CEOs, that kind of thing. Part of it is that the American economy is much better insulated from these challenges directly and indirectly than many other countries are. I mean, I spoke with some of the Indian senior officials last week. Uh there they already have like restaurants across the country that have closed down because they can't get fuel. Uh, they can't get gas. You've got the Europeans. Lufthansa today um is uh cutting back on uh 10,000 flights. They're just canceling them because they're not gonna have enough fuel. Um, and you know, the potential that some of these airlines are gonna have to shut down um in Europe and Asia is very real in the coming weeks. You could see a financial crisis uh in some of the poorer countries in sub-Saharan Africa because they're just not gonna have the fiscal space to get through all of the supply chain shortages, shocks, and inflation that comes on the back of it. You know, even AI. AI requires inexpensive energy and lots of it. That's going to be a problem. You need semiconductors, which require helium in part, that's coming from Qatar, coming from through the straits. Which is now South Korea, Taiwan, as of June, they're going to be out. And those boats, you know, it takes weeks and weeks for them to get over there. So soon that's going to be a problem. So I I think that even if you were to get a ceasefire agreement that was um that led to a breakthrough this week, which is very unlikely, and then it was actually implemented, which is very unlikely, um, the damage would still be much greater than I think most of the market participants are presently estimating.

SPEAKER_05 47:15

Is the ultimate beneficiary from all this likely to be China? Yes. And why is that for those who are not as savvy about that as you are?

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SPEAKER_03 47:28

Well, I just I didn't know exactly where you wanted to go with that, but but clearly, um, in the near term, China does take a hit. Um, I mean, they have far more energy stockpiles, commodity stockpiles than other countries. Their oil stockpiles are greater than the US and Japan and Europe all put together, right? And so, I mean, they can they can handle it for a longer period of time. The inflation does hurt them. Their economy is not doing well. The part of their economy that's doing particularly well is exporting cheap manufacturers to other countries around the world that feels like dumping. So there's backlash that's occurring against China as well. So this is not a trivial environment for China. But but long term, uh, this is a war that America is fighting, that Israel supports, and that almost no other country in the world does. And the anger that those countries are feeling towards the Americans and the lack of reliability that they're feeling for the United States is making them want to reduce their exposure to the U.S., even as the market does very well. Um, they're worried about the security alignment, the diplomatic alignment, the intelligence alignment, the alignment in multilateral institutions. And for all of those places, the Chinese are doing well. Further, um, the Chinese have already shown Trump that they have the ability to hit back. And that's why Trump is so excited about coming to Beijing in May. And there, China has the upper hand, not only because Trump really wants a stable relationship, that's why the U.S. is announcing this Board of Trade, Board of Investment with the Chinese. Um, but also uh the Chinese know, and Xi Jinping knows that President Trump doesn't care very much about Taiwan, uh, like Ukraine, thousands of miles away, not really America's problem. Shouldn't they be doing more for themselves? Shouldn't they pay more for defense? And Trump wants to be the peacemaker. So I assure you, Xi Jinping is gonna do his level best when he meets with Trump to say, hey, I'm willing to give you a lot. I'll buy a lot more Boeings, buy a lot more soybeans, I'll I'll cut deals that are gonna make you look like a big winner. I already gave you TikTok, let you buy it. Um, but you need to tell me that you oppose Taiwanese independence. And and Trump's own advisors on China who would oppose this will readily admit privately that when Xi Jinping asks Trump that question, they don't know what Trump will say. Um and especially in the backdrop of this, like, you know, they're gonna show him an incredible time. They are gonna put on a show for President Trump like they have never done for any other president. They're gonna show him so much deference, so much respect the way that he doesn't feel from the Europeans, he doesn't feel from the Canadians, that the Chinese are gonna show that. And and all Xi Jinping is asking is hey, you don't you don't want to war over Taiwan. We don't want to war over Taiwan. This president is causing so much trouble. He wants independence. Us adults, we we can we can create peace, right? Right, Mr. President? And who you you know Trump a lot better than I do, Pierce. Uh I mean, I I'm very interested in how Donald Trump is going to respond to that.

SPEAKER_06 50:58

Yeah, me too. It's a great question. Just finally in, uh the Gulf states have had a really awful six, seven weeks. I spent a lot of time there in the last few years in Saudi Arabia, in Qatar, in UA, and so on. And it's they've all made it crystal clear that all the drive, the dynamism, the money, the resource, the willpower, and so on has all been directed at finding a long-term future revenue to replace the oil. And they had decided it was going to be around tourism, opening up, selling safety and sunshine, and sport and entertainment and leisure and travel, you know, the holiday resorts and so on. And everything to do with that has been really dismantled in a sharp and awful way by what's happened because people don't feel safe. Uh, they've probably been made aware of how close they are to Iran and how dangerous that potentially is and so on. How do they come through this, do you think? And how damaging has it been for the Gulf states?

SPEAKER_03 52:02

So, what you just described, Pierce, does does really apply to pretty much the entire Gulf. They've all taken it on the chin, they're all facing insecurity. It turns out that a$110 trillion global economy can really be upset by a very small amount uh of resource uh set against it. And the Gulf is maximally vulnerable to that. The idea that they're gonna be the Switzerland of the Middle East, these Gulf states, sounds very quaint when you can't get through the strait and when you've got missiles uh that are hitting Dubai airport, right? Um having said that, uh there the impact on these countries and their responses are very different. They're very different. Saudi Arabia can get 7 million barrels a day of oil, and they are out through their east-west pipeline, through the Red Sea. They don't need the strait. If you combine that with um the uh higher prices that they're receiving, this year Saudi Arabia's budget is actually gonna look pretty good. Um, they've got other problems, as you just mentioned. They're gonna be pulling out of it, looks like the live golf tournament Formula One, they weren't able to do as same with Bahrain. Um, and and the sovereign wealth funds in Saudi Arabia will be tilting much more towards critical infrastructure, security buildup, you know, things that they really need to ensure that if this ever happens again, they're in a better position. But the Saudis are not existentially threatened as of right now by this war. Um the uh the Emiratis are. Uh 90% of the UAE's population of 10 million are expats. And they it is essential that they act as a hub for Gulf transit, um as a hub for advanced health care, for education, um, for great tourism, and and all of that is is deeply impacted not only by the last six plus weeks of war, but also by an Iranian regime that has the capability and wherewithal to threaten that going forward. Saudi Arabia has their own labor. You know, 35 million people, they're investing heavily in making that labor uh more effective, more productive, bringing women into the workforce, diversifying that labor base. The UAE needs to attract that labor and keep that labor when they could go to Singapore or Europe or the UK, right? It's much, much harder for them. And another point that I just want to make here, Pierce, um, is that these countries, they're all aligned with the United States in terms of security and intelligence. But if they can't rely on the United States to protect them ongoing with Iran, if the Americans, if Trump is saying, okay, not my problem, you guys are gonna have to handle this trade, you guys have to handle ballistic missiles, their responses are radically different. The UAE will tell you that over the last weeks, the one country in the region that they really have been able to rely on is Israel. And the Israelis can't live with the Iranian regime, neither can the Amiratis going forward. That's what they're saying privately to Trump. The Saudis are much closer to Pakistan and the nuclear weapons program Pakistan has, which the Saudis have helped fund. The last couple weeks, the UAE pulled a$3 billion credit line to Pakistan. Saudi Arabia immediately backfilled it. And if the Americans pull out and declare this war over, Saudi Arabia is going to use their Pakistan relationship with China to try to rebuild some form of stable relations with the Iranians. And so the Gulf Cooperation Council, the loose formation, regional formation of Gulf countries that has been aligned on political and security and some economic and infrastructure measures, I fear is fragmenting because of this war. It's one of the most important geopolitical um developments that you and I have seen globally because of this war.

SPEAKER_06 56:24

Yeah, a hundred percent. Ian Bremer, always great to have you on the center. Thank you very much. Thanks, Pierce goes here. Fitzboggals Center is proudly independent. The only boss around here is me who enjoy our show, and offer only one simple thing subscribe on YouTube and follow Fitzmog on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. And in return, we will continue our mission to hold, irritate, and entertain. And do it all for Twitter. Independent on sensor media has never been more critical than do it for that.