Basket & Barometer March 2026

Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat
They break down why February 2026 turns into a tough month for UK retail, with record rain dragging down footfall and high street sales. They also zoom out to consumer confidence, inflation pressures, and the April policy changes that could reshape hiring and costs.

• Record wet weather and why it hits retail demand fast
• Footfall declines across high streets, centres and retail parks
• High street debit card sales tracking below last year
• Category performance across fashion, food and drink, general retail, grocery, health and beauty
• GfK Nielsen consumer confidence falling and what it signals for March
• Major purchases weakening and the savings index rising
• Inflation staying at 3% overall while essentials run hotter
• Discounting effects in clothing and muted inflation in big-ticket categories
• Average transaction value rising in food and drink and health and beauty
• National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage rises from 1 April
• Key headlines from the first phase of the UK Employment Rights Act

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Transcript

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Welcome And February Setup

SPEAKER_00 0:05

Welcome to the Productivity Podcast. This is our Basket and Barometer edition with our returning guest Day on World for February 2026. Hi Dae, how are you doing?

SPEAKER_01 0:15

Simon, how are you?

SPEAKER_00 0:16

Yep, good, thank you. So we're going to focus on February 26, the wettest February

Footfall Falls Across Every Channel

SPEAKER_00 0:23

since records began, just to give some context to the dark thunderclouds that may be forming.

SPEAKER_01 0:30

Yes, it wasn't great. And of course, rain is never good for retail. And that that um came through in the data for February, in both footfall and sales. So footfall is measured by Sensomatic, which is footfall into stores, dropped across all the three retail channels. So that's high streets, shopping centres, and retail parks. And actually in retail parts, it dropped by over three percent, which is the biggest drop since January last year. And in high streets it dropped by over 4%, over 5%. And across the three, it dropped by 4.7%. And though that that drop mirrors the decline in sales in the high street as measured by Beauclair, who trapped debit card sales in high streets, and they kept that February result came in at 4% below last year for February. So not a strong February at all. I mean, February last year wasn't strong in sales terms either, it was minus 5.1%. And amongst the five categories that account for the majority of spendings, that's over 80% of spending. Or sales in all of those five categories, which is fashion, food and drink, general retail grocery, and health and beauty, all declined, albeit that health and beauty only declined by 0.7%. So virtually flattened last year, health and beauty. But very, you know, challenging out there in the high street, definitely. And challenging across retail. Just to give, I think the the probably the most recent and the most current

Confidence Signals A Tough March

SPEAKER_01 2:01

data I've got is actually on consumer confidence from GFK Nielsen, who actually are they run their, they run a consumer survey asking people how they feel about things, the economy and their own finances, and they do that mid-month. So the results for March are actually in. So we're sort of a month ahead, but it it's really helpful because it gives us a first inkling of what March might be like for retail sales, and confidence inevitably has dropped. We're now at minus 21 as the overall index score versus minus 19 in February. And the last time it was as low as that was in April last year at minus 23. And all of that drop really is around people's pessimism about the economic situation of the next year or so. And that impacts their views around buying big products. So then the major purchase index has dropped from minus 14 last month to minus 18. And the savings index, which is how much people you know want to save, has gone up from 21 to 27. So people are definitely hoarding their money and saving and being cautious rather than spending.

SPEAKER_00 3:14

And inflation was relatively steady, I think, in February, wasn't it?

SPEAKER_01 3:18

Inflation stayed at 3%.

Inflation Hotspots And Where Prices Ease

SPEAKER_01 3:20

But of course, that's the basket of goods. You know, so housing and utilities were at 4.6%, restaurants and hotels at 4%, restaurants and cafes at 4.5%. There was some strong inflation in education because school fees have gone up of over 5%. So whilst you know, overall it's three in some of the categories, it's actually much higher than that. Interestingly, in furniture and household, which of course people aren't, you know, according to the GFK index, people aren't spending on large purchases, it's just 0.1%. And clothing and footwear, it's 0.9%. So I think that reflects some discounting in those sectors because people aren't spending as much.

SPEAKER_00 4:00

So I suppose the the big question comes then if February is just a cooling-off period, or as we enter March, we get all the geopolitical stuff that starts to kick in, and I'm sure we'll talk about that in the next episode. So people, well, they won't have seen that coming, but it might be a prelude to what's going to come.

SPEAKER_01 4:20

Absolutely. And I think that's why I particularly highlighted the GFK data for March this month's chat, because it gives an indication of how people are feeling about the impact of you know what's happening in the Middle East and you know the inevitability of increases in price and if and therefore inflation. So we've already seen petrol prices go up. You know, the mortgage lenders are very insecure around what's going to happen around interest rates, so they're pulling products. So it there's generally just some some jitters already, and that's gonna flow through straight into March as numbers.

SPEAKER_00 4:58

So when you might not have the figures exactly to hand, but the consumer GFK index is secure the consumer confidence, yeah. I mean, it it's been negative for well, it's gonna be years now rather than months. Um it

Ten Years Of Negative Sentiment

SPEAKER_00 5:11

almost tells back to lockdown, doesn't it? What yeah, what was what is the world like when it's positive? What what are the general traits that we see?

SPEAKER_01 5:20

Well, you know, it has been it has been negative for a long time. We did get down to minus 13 on an index score in 2024, but you know, then we had all the uncertainties around the government and lose trust and the budget and all that sort of impacted on it. So it's it's it's really struggled since then. It hasn't really I'm just checking because I do have some historic data that goes way back. And I think the best time we had, actually, interestingly, was re in recent times um was May 2021 when we came out of lockdown at minus nine. And before that, in 2018, here we go, 2016. If we want if we're searching for a positive number, we have to go back to 2016. March 2016 it was zero.

SPEAKER_00 6:15

Almost ten years by the next week.

SPEAKER_01 6:19

Yeah, ten years to get to zero. So, you know, but it was still it was essentially single-digit negativity all the way through to mid-17. Then it went to its last low double digits, then 18 it fell back to single digit negativity, and it was double low double digits for the next year or two. And then 2020, when COVID hit, it went to minus 34, would you believe? Wow. And then it fell back again, improved in May 2021 when we came out of lockdown too. And it was in July 2021 when everyone thought that the world is much better, it's minus seven. And in recent times, it's got to as low as minus 49 in February, in September 2022. So, you know, where we are at minus minus 17 or 21 is you know, compared to minus 49, it's looking reasonable, but it's not reasonable. It is pretty negative. Consumers feel you know, they lack confidence and have done for a long time.

SPEAKER_00 7:21

10 years, didn't realise that long.

SPEAKER_01 7:23

I know, it does.

SPEAKER_00 7:25

And February, obviously, we all know it's Valentine's Day, so one of the big calendar events in the year. Did

Valentine’s Day Spending Reality Check

SPEAKER_00 7:30

that give any positive flip on Valentine's Day, or was it just kind of smooth with everything else that was going on?

SPEAKER_01 7:36

Do you know? I I've never all the data I've looked at for years and years and years, you can't really see it in the data because you tend to look at the month as a whole, and you know, it's a spending time. People go out for a meal or they'll buy some flowers or a card. You know, they may trade down on Valentine's Day rather than buy the very expensive flowers or buy cheaper flowers, you know.

SPEAKER_00 7:56

Cheaper the day cheaper the day after folks, just for next year's reference.

SPEAKER_01 7:59

Oh, I bet that went down well, Simon. Oh, ever lovely, how nice. You know, so we never really see that impact, but of course, it is important for retail. It creates a point in the calendar, and you know, it creates a spending opportunity. So I would never decry it and say, you know, it it's it's a valuable place. And actually, food and drink spend, which you know plays it straight into it, whilst you know, customers declined, and as did transactions across the month, the average transaction value went up by 3.9%. So above inflation and above all all sectors as a whole, which went up by 1.8%. So people did spend more in February on drink than they did last year. And the biggest increase in the average transaction value was actually in Healthy Beauty, which encompasses gyms and wellness and all of those of those stuff, as well as beauty products, and that went up by 0.6, 6.3. So people were spending more, and that probably dovetails with price increases in gyms and things as well. So people end up spending more money on those to keep going. So there have been increases in spending in some areas, but generally spending as a whole has dropped.

SPEAKER_00 9:19

And there's some big things on the horizon. So without getting too far ahead, so 1st of April,

April Wage Rise And New Worker Rights

SPEAKER_00 9:24

which is odd because it's midweek, so good luck to all those payroll people out there. National living wage increases kick in. So over 21s will go from 1221 to 1271 an hour, which is 4.1% increase. And then national minimum wage for those 18 to 20 will go from £10 to 1085, which is an 8.5% increase. So some big cost wins, but this year that's coupled with the first part of the UK Employment Rights Act. I won't go into the detail, it's been well publicised and it's been slightly watered down from where it was. But the kind of highlights for those that don't know, you probably need to have a bit of a look because it's it's coming, it's almost here. Uh unfair dismissal. So previously it was a two-year qualifying period moves to six months. There's changes on statutory sick pay, earnings limits, and waiting periods, paternity, parental, and bereavement leave becomes a first aid right. There's whole a whole bunch of stuff around zero hours contract, trade union recognition, fair work agency, gender pay gap equality. So some really good things in there, but some really challenging things in terms of new recruits that are coming into the business. And some of those people will have already pre-qualified for those new rights in recent recruitment. So a really, really important piece of legislation. And this is just the first part of that bill because it goes beyond, and there's a whole bunch of stuff planned for 2027 which hasn't been finalised by the government yet. So two other big bits. Good news stuff. So we've

Retail Tech Show And New Benchmarking Report

SPEAKER_00 11:00

got the retail technology show 22nd, 23rd of April in itself. So we've we're there again. So if you're around, come and say hi, be good to see you. And we've also got our first benchmarking report, which is being launched at the retail technology search show on the 22nd of April. So Sue James and the team have have worked really hard on pulling together some data, looking at key trends and insights around lost and unproductive time, cost to put stop to the shelves, and we'll be releasing that on the 22nd available to download, and you'll see stuff on our socials about it. But that was that was something you recommended doing, Dye. So thanks for the thanks for the push. The team are delighted with all the hard work they inherited as well.

SPEAKER_01 11:42

Good. I'm pleased. I mean it'll be interesting. It is very timely, actually, very, very timely to get that out into the into the market and give more people more information and more trend information about what's happening because you need that context.

SPEAKER_00 11:55

Definitely, definitely. So we'll we'll pause there. We'll be back to talk about March next month, which I think is going to be

March Preview And Closing

SPEAKER_00 12:01

interesting because that's when all the geopolitical stuff really starts to kick in and uh and we'll see what's happened since. So thank you once again, Dai, and we will catch up next month.

SPEAKER_01 12:10

Absolutely. Looking forward to it, Simon.