The Causey Consulting Podcast

Saturday Broadcast 6

July 09, 2022
The Causey Consulting Podcast
Saturday Broadcast 6
Show Notes Transcript

Saturday broadcast, 7/2 - 7/8.

Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news.
✔️Jobs are plentiful - 2 for every 1 unemployed person! Gas prices are down! No recession at all! Inflation is transitory! Suuuuurrreeeee. Does your personal economy feel like it's rip-roarin' and doing awesome?
✔️Zuck says if you wanna leave, go right ahead. "Self select" out the door. 😳
✔️Based on the 4th of July sales that I saw, it kinda seems like Big Retail thinks you're either not gonna have much disposable income soon and/or you're not gonna be WFH anymore.


Links I discuss in this episode:

https://nypost.com/2022/07/01/mark-zuckerberg-meta-wants-to-oust-workers-who-shouldnt-be-here/

https://fortune.com/2022/06/23/zombie-companies-stocks-to-zero-david-trainer-new-constructs-peloton-carvana-freshpet/

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/amazon-cancels-or-delays-plans-for-at-least-16-warehouses-this-year

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/luxury-car-buyers-pay-more-than-ever-as-prices-and-loan-costs-rise.html

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a40341556/monthly-car-payments-average-rising/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/remote-jobs-have-strings-attached-5370268/

https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2022/05/27/playing-the-rto-game/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bosses-offer-midyear-raises-to-retain-employees-as-inflation-takes-toll-11657013401

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/job-market-stays-hot-as-economy-cools-5370308/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/jobless-claims-edge-up-to-highest-since-january-trade-deficit-hits-2022-low.html

https://medium.com/@sara_causey/they-changed-their-tune-8c22fbf04101

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/look-both-ways-before-quitting-5365660/

https://fairmontpost.com/should-job-hoppers-leap-one-more-time/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/08/business/economy/jobs-report-june-2022.html

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/10898050


Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
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Siren courtesy of Pixabay

Hello, Hello, thanks for tuning in. So I'm recording this portion of the broadcast on the afternoon of Saturday, July the second. There's a headline that I saw and I knew this was something important that needed to be talked about not only just from a general economic perspective but also more specifically from an HR and staffing perspective. If you go over to the New York Post, you will find Mark Zuckerberg were turning up the heat at meta so employees will quit. Yikes. Allow me to read a few paragraphs now. Facebook parent meta wants to cut ties with workers who can't meet newly raised performance expectations as the company prepares for an economic downturn. CEO Mark Zuckerberg bluntly revealed this week. Zuckerberg frank admission came during a q&a session with employees in which he warned that a recent slump in the markets might be one of the worst downturns that we've seen in recent history. Realistically, there are probably a bunch of people at the company who shouldn't be here. ZuckerBerg said during the meeting, according to Reuters, part of my goal by raising expectations and having more aggressive goals. And just kind of turning up the heat a little bit is that I think some of you might decide that this place isn't for you, and that self selection is okay with me. Zuckerberg added. Zuckerberg indicated that Meta plans to slow its hiring plans for engineers by at least 30% This year, adding roughly six or 7000 workers rather than the 10,000. And initially expected to hire some roles that are currently empty will stay unfilled, as metadata is a pressure on current employees and quote, yeah, so in my opinion, this is definitely not a good sign. And in fact, it may be an omen of other things yet to come not only in the tech sector, but potentially in other markets as well. standard boilerplate goes here, I am not an economist, I don't sit on the World Economic Forum, and I'm not a power broker. I'm also not a professional financial planner or advisor. The comments that I make in any of these episodes, including this one, are not to be construed as advice of any kind, I'm just giving you my opinion, a private individual, giving you her opinion for your entertainment purposes only. From an HR and staffing perspective, sometimes companies will do this for a number of reasons. As I've told you, before, these companies don't answer to us. They don't answer to the random person out on the street, they answer to people like shareholders, investors and a board of directors, but they don't answer to me and you, of course they don't. And they're in business to make money. So in spite of whatever veneer they might put on, especially on social media, or through their marketing department about how big of a heart they have, and how much they care. Now, they care about the profits, and they care about the bottom line. I'm sorry about you if that hurts your feelings, but I'm trying to tell you the way that the world actually works. And here we have it staring us back in the face. Hey, if you decide that this place is not for you, then that's okay with me, you can hit the bricks pile, and I won't feel sad about it. Companies will do this. Sometimes if they don't want to have a mass firing or a mass layoff because they think it would look bad for optics or the investors, the shareholders have already told them, we don't need bad publicity of having a mass firing. If we need to call the herd then we need to do it kind of quietly and surreptitiously, as opposed to getting a bunch of bad PR out in the media. Sometimes companies will also do this sort of thing, because they don't want to be on the hook for benefits. You know, sometimes when you terminate an employee or you lay them off, you're on the hook, you know, depending on the laws in the state, depending on the kind of contract that was signed between employee and employer, that company might owe some kind of severance pay, they may have to cover benefits for a certain period of time or make Cobra available to the employee so that they can continue on with their benefits for a period of time. Whereas if somebody just says take this job and shove it and they walk out on their own, it's really a different ballgame. And some companies will also do it if they feel like they don't want to open themselves up for the liability of a wrongful termination lawsuit. Well, if you leave on your own, if we raise the standards, and you decide that you're just not up for the challenge, and you leave on your own, well, sorry, we'll, we'll see you some other time. And that'll be that and we'll part ways. I hate to be sort of pulling the curtain back and being the bearer of bad news, but this is reality. Now just to be clear, I'm gonna do some cya here. I'm not saying that that's what Facebook or meta is doing. I'm just telling you that some companies in this world choose to behave in that way. And you will see it in sales and marketing departments as well. You ever heard of the PIP the performance improvement plan? A lot of times that comes out when somebody either legitimately is not trying, they're just showing up, they're not trying to produce anything, or some person is struggling and the manager really wants to get rid of them without having a big fu for all about it. So you get pulled to the side and put on a pip. You're either going to meet these absurdly high sales goals or there's the door and then After the period of time passes, whether it's a 30 day plan 60 Day or 90 day, you get pulled into a conference room and told, Hey, listen, I'm really sorry. You know, we tried, we tried to work with you by giving you a goal that not even Jesus Himself could meet, and you just didn't do it. So we're gonna have to let you go. But no hard feelings, right? These things happen. And one of the things that concerns me about meta, you know, being on major news outlets for this, Hey, then there's the door if you want to use it, other companies may follow suit. I hope that I am wrong on that. I really do. But it concerns me that it could be opening the door wider for other companies to do the same thing. And I feel that way about Elon Musk and Tesla as well. Hey, you go pretend to work somewhere else. If you think work from home is so fabulous. That's fine, but you're gonna have to go do it somewhere else. Well, that kicked the door open. Even before official stirrings of recession, or official stirrings of 1970 stagflation. We're out there. I mean, anybody who's awake with some brain cells already knew that crap was going on. But my point is, he kicked the door open wider of like, yeah, pretend to work somewhere else work from home revolution zone with guys sign up, come on back. Well, now we're here with meta, we've raised our standards, we're hoping that some employees will just find their way out the door. And so that'll be that and everybody's problem will be solved? Well, it's not going to solve your problem, if you're the one that's having to figure out how you're going to make rent, how you're going to pay the bills, how you're going to keep that car in the driveway, how you're gonna keep your babies spent. So these are things to think about not to get paranoid and hyper vigilant, but it's some food for thought, in my opinion. Another point that I want to make is that a lot of the Fourth of July sales that I'm seeing this weekend, don't have anything to do with necessity items, things like food, water, toiletries, and so on. It's mostly from what I'm seeing things like consumer electronics, housewares, and small appliances, tchotchkes, doodads, breadmakers tablets, computers, giant TVs, video games, and so on. Now, maybe it's different in some other parts of the country, I don't know. But in the Midwest, I'm mostly just seeing the housewares the consumer electronics and the small appliances as being the things that are actually on sale. And I've talked to employees at different stores, and a lot of them have all said the same thing. What you see on the shelf right now is stuff that got ordered last year. And the supply chain issues, I'm sure you've already heard about all of the supply chain and logistic issues in the news, there are items and shipping containers stuck at ports for months on end, things are not moving quickly in the US supply chain. And I'm just thinking out loud here. I'm just kind of spitballing theories around. Nothing that I say should be taken as fact or gospel truth. I don't know, I literally am just sitting here opining and thinking out loud. And I'm just sort of wondering, okay, if these items, let's say were ordered last year, and now the stores are finally getting them in. And there's a glut of things like TVs and headphones and headsets and tablets and breadmakers and things of that nature. Just kind of wondering, because back in 2020, when we all had to go home, we were told two weeks to flatten the curve, just keep your button house, a lot of people decided to do home improvement projects, places like Lowe's and Home Depot were covered up I mean, so much for really staying at home. A lot of people went to the stores and then went back to the house and planted flower beds where they planted a garden where they got around to the honey do list, they finally fix that leaky faucet in the bathroom, things like that. And people also were focused on cooking. Remember, there was a period of time where everybody wanted to make their own bread, even people that were not very interested in cooking decided that they wanted to cook meals from scratch for a couple of weeks. They wanted to bake their own bread. Oh, this is quaint. This is just like a little vacay. And then we'll go back to life as normal. Because people at that point in time didn't realize like, okay, but not really like there's this sort of made an indelible impression on everybody. And it's not just going to be two weeks to flatten the curve. So I'm wondering, just wondering out loud here if the stores have a glut of these electronics and housewares and small appliances and tchotchkes and doodads for the house because they thought, Okay, kids are still gonna be doing distance learning, adults are still going to be working remotely, there's still going to be a lot of emphasis around being comfortable at home. So these people are going to want devices in every room, they're going to want the breadmaker they're going to want the doodads and the tchotchkes for the house, they're still going to be making sure that their house looks good, there may still be a lot of heat in the real estate market. So people might need to stage their house, their house may need to look a certain way for real estate photographs or for showings. So I'm just wondering if maybe now they're kind of catching on to the pulse of what's actually happening in 2022. And they're like we need to get rid of this stuff. Because people are getting ready to go back to the cube farm. You're getting ready to go back to the digital pan. Opticon are not going to be at home as much anymore. They're I mean needing that workout equipment. They're not going to be needing the bread machine they're going to be back buttons Eat in a cubicle. This also made me think of an article that I referenced in last Saturday's broadcast from fortune.com peloton and two other major zombie companies could soon go to zero. Leading stock research firm CEO says some of these companies that were pandemic darlings like Netflix when everybody was binge watching Tiger king or peloton when everybody needed to work out at home, all of a sudden, we're seeing stock drops for companies that were very hot during the pandemic. And I'm just sort of wondering, again, I'm just wondering out loud here, if maybe the retailers are catching on to this and saying, You know what, maybe people are not going to be at home all the time anymore. The kids are going to be back in a classroom, the adults are going to be back in a cube farm, they're not going to need at home workout equipment, because if they want to exercise, they'll go back to a gym. And if they need to use technology, they'll be doing it more so at the office or at the school than they will be at home. So we kind of need to get rid of this stuff because we're not going to have need of it anymore. The other thing is, it's possible I hope not. But it's possible that they are reading the tea leaves about recession or 70s era stagflation. And they're wondering if people are going to have the money down the road, we need to offload this stuff now, while people have some money in their pockets, and they might be willing to buy a TV or a tablet at half price because oh six months from now might not be an issue. If they're choosing between keeping food on the table or keeping the lights turned on. They're not going to come here and buy this TV, so we better get rid of it while the getting's good, I hope I'm wrong, just opining thinking out loud, have no idea but those are kind of theories that I find troubling. So to give you kind of a bird's eye view of what I am seeing at my local Walmart here in the Midwest, some of the same sections that have been dicey the past few weeks still are and some others have actually improved. So like the sports drink aisle was restocked again, you could get the like multipacks of Gatorade or Powerade, so that that was great. I'm also starting to notice what I've heard from people in other parts of the country about just random stuff, pallets and cardboard boxes of just stuff all out in the aisles. And it was to the point in certain places where it was actually difficult to get through. To give you an example, there was like a big pallet randomly of baby diapers right across from the dog and cat food section. So I had to go way down the aisle, make a loop and turn back around just to go down the dog food aisle. And it's like, that's kind of odd. Why is there just like a boatload of baby diapers here. There were a few bottles of the cheaper shampoo and conditioner. The feminine hygiene aisle is still pretty dicey. There were some pads, very few tampons, I needed to get some IKEA solution, and they were completely out of it. So I wound up having to go to CVS to actually pick some of that up. So that's another thing to be thinking about. You know, if you use things like saline solution, or the hydrogen peroxide cleanser for your soft lenses, you might want to make sure that you have some extra put back. The potatoes were in better condition, it look like they had gotten in a shipment of russet potatoes where you could actually choose some really good potatoes, the fresh produce like the section where they have things like squash and zucchini, asparagus, heads of lettuce, heads of cabbage, that was really empty. And I'm not sure if that section got picked over for people doing things for the Fourth of July or if it has just been that way over this past week. I'm not sure but there wasn't a lot to choose from in that section. When I went down the aisle where they have the dishwashing liquid and dishwashing powders. On the other side of that aisle is where they have things like air fresheners, scented candles, and Febreeze that sort of thing. And there was a lady who I thought at first that she was stocking the shelves but then when I kind of turned around and took a closer look, she was actually just fronting so she was taking certain items and moving them to the front of the shelf so that it would look like there was more there than there actually was. But I did not see any open boxes where she was actually taking things out of a box and putting them on the store shelf. I've also heard some stories of other people who farm and who garden having difficulty with their seeds. Either the seeds just didn't sprout or they might have put a little bit of a plant up in the plant died. I am seeing some of the same issues I'm having some of the same issues. My garden this year is pretty iffy. Some of the plants that look good look look good. And then some of the other plants are kind of ho hum and I'm skeptical that they're going to make it. We have also in this part of the country been experiencing that flash drought. So it rained and it rained and it rained during the springtime months and the ground stayed soft and muddy for quite some time. But then it was like someone flipped a switch and kaboom. It got really dry. Now I've heard there's some kind of solar flare or sunspot ought some solar type event that only happens I think once every four or 500 years. I'm not a meteorologist. So that's not my forte. I don't I don't really completely understand it. But it definitely seems to be crappy timing. You know, given that we're hearing news about potential food shortage given that we're hearing about the Ukraine's wheat production is not going to happen. There's a fertilizer shortage. It's certainly not pleasant news to think about your home garden that could have potentially been feeding yourself and your family it could have given you the opportunity to canned or pickle some things. You know, if you have a lousy garden this year, it's probably not your fault it very well could be crappy seeds. It could be a flash drought, but it does mean that you may have to make other preparations you may need to get some additional produce at the store that you can can or you may need to get something that's already can that you can put back. So no pun intended. This is just some food for thought. On Sunday. If you are on Yahoo Finance, you would have seen headlines such as jobs jolts and the Fed. Want to know this week, June's all important jobs report and minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy setting meeting are expected to highlight a holiday shortened trading week ahead. unconvincing price moves as the economy cools. contract expires for West Coast dockworkers negotiations continue. Delta offers passengers $10,000 for seats on an overbooked flight. Will mortgage rates hit 7% In the near future? Here's what the chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS says about that. home sellers are realizing it's no longer their housing market, an estimated 6.1% of homes for sale during the four weeks leading to June 19. Okay, there is no more retirement inflation pushes seniors back into the workforce. Not everyone can afford to live on fixed incomes as prices rise. Yep. Further down, there's an article that I want to highlight. And it reads how quickly the tables have turned. Falling mortgage rates of homebuyers so emboldened that they're asking sellers for cash. Yeah, people get ready. There's, there's a lot brewing up out there. And I felt so passionately about this. And I actually wanted to just go ahead and make a bonus episode that will air on Monday, July 4, because I want to get the message out, I felt like it was too important to wait to get digested into my Saturday broadcast. People need to understand that these changes happening in the housing market are also rippling over to the job market. I understand that may not be welcome news, I'm just trying to be honest with you. So in the same way that we had this red hot, intense seller's market, and buyers were the ones at such a huge disadvantage, and there was FOMO. And there was yellow and there was crazy low interest rates last summer. And sellers acted like if you didn't show up and grovel to them, if you didn't offer them insane amounts of money and do everything you could to sweeten the deal. They wouldn't even give you the time of day. Now it's changing some of the houses that would have flown off the market. I mean, they would have been available to purchase for maybe an hour at most last summer when there was this fever pitch of FOMO and Yolo. They're just sitting there and buyers are saying thanks. but no thanks. You know, you can keep your grossly overpriced junk house and I think we'll pass on that. The same kind of phenomenon is happening now out in the job market. Things are not moving quickly. A lot of companies are reining it in. They are taking a look at their pay bands and deciding that what they thought they could offer during the Great resignation to stay competitive is not feasible in the long run. And I think that some people who came of age and maybe they had their first real taste of corporate America during the Great resignation, and they thought that they could hippity hop all over the job market forever and continuously ask for more money each time. They're going to be in for a really tough surprise, especially if they're out there listening to social media panderers and people that are telling them well, everything's fine, the economy's fine. Inflation is transitory, you don't have anything to worry about or while the world owes you a living you should be able to hippity hop you should be able to demand more and more money each time. You should be able to get a $20,000 pay raise every three months. That's completely sustainable, right. I have said this before. I hate to sound like a broken record. But I do think we're in for a long hot summer followed by a winter of discontent. I hope I am wrong on that. But I worry that I'm not. Well, we've made it to Monday. It's the fourth of July holiday here in the US so I hope that you are staying safe and cool. It's very hot where I am in the Midwest. on CNBC this morning, you saw headlines such as Americans hoping for European vacations this summer should prepare for one thing chaos. High us gas prices weigh on demand risk analysts says, Well yeah, more than 12,000 flights delayed hundreds canceled over July 4 weekend. And the picture they have that goes with this new story just shows like I guess a European airport with people crammed jammed inside it trying to get through. Frankly, it looks like introvert Hill. Just a giant mob of people pushing and shoving and trying to get through a queue is not my cup of tea at all. Another crypto lender vault pauses withdrawals as market crash takes its toll. Here's something I want to say. Even if you have no involvement in cryptocurrency at all, you never invested in it thought it was a crazy idea. Just just the notion that a bank or a financial institution of some kind that's holding your money for you could say you're not allowed to take it out. We're gonna pause withdrawals. So you're just gonna have to sit here. How would you feel about that? And how would you handle that? I mean, that that's, that's a scary thing. In my opinion. Bezos slams Biden's call for gasoline stations to cut prices. Top Wall Street strategists see the stock market recouping most of its losses into year end. Well, I hope so I myself would not bet the farm on that happening. But maybe they're right. rent prices are starting to cool down the five cities with the most significant decreases. I also hope that that's true as well. That would be good news for the people in those cities. If that's the case. Recession fears flare and June jobs report looms as jittery markets headed into third quarter. Over on Yahoo Finance, we have home sellers are realizing that the market has turned. I think that depends on what part of the country you're in. Because here where I am in the Midwest, a lot of people are still overpricing their junk. I'm still seeing the burned out house trailers that people think they can get half a million dollars for, et cetera. So I think that may depend on where you live. And it may also depend on the awareness of realtors and brokers in your area. If you're in a part of the country where a whole bunch of people jumped on the bandwagon and decided to become Realtors because they thought they could make a quick buck in a hot economy, but they really don't know their eyeball from their elbow. Then they may still be telling greedy sellers. Yeah, pump up the price. So I think that kind of depends on where you're at housing, we're in for a little bit more pain. Housing correction is dead ahead warns Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi. Here's how He sees things playing out. Stock market faces earnings shock as the economy falters. So we have a couple of different narratives going here. And if you go over to CNBC, then you're going to learn that some experts somewhere thinks that the market is going to rebound before the year is out, and rent prices are down in certain cities. I'm not hearing that from literally anyone else. But hey, if that's true, then that's good news. Then we go over Yahoo Finance, and it's gloom and doom, and it's mostly focused on how the housing market is getting ready to take a big poop. So I think it kind of depends on who you're listening to on what kind of spin they're putting on the news. A friend of mine who is in logistics sent me a news article from a publication I've never even heard of, I think the publication itself is called Modern shipper. And you can find this article at freight waves.com. Naturally, I will drop a link to it so you can check it out for yourself. The headline reads, Amazon cancels or delays plans for at least 16 warehouses this year. The company is scaling back warehouse footprint amid e commerce slowdown and this was published yesterday July 3. The opening sentence reads after spending billions doubling the size of its fulfillment network during the pandemic, Amazon finds itself in a perilous position. In the first quarter of 2022, the E commerce giant reported a 3.8 billion net loss after raking in an 8.1 billion profit in q1 of 2021. That includes 6 billion and added cost the bulk of which can be traced back to that same fulfillment network and quote, if you scroll down they offer some analysis here that I think is interesting common sense but interesting. The slowdown can be attributed to a few different factors. Many pointed inflation as the main culprit with less disposable income shoppers are trying to save by spending less online putting their money into things like travel and fuel. subsiding pandemic fears are also driving a departure from E commerce and to return to in person shopping in quote. If you are a big fan of Amazon Prime, then you probably already know they're gonna have their Amazon Prime Day later this month. But then they're going to have another one called I think like fall prime in the fourth quarter. So naturally, yes, I'm sure they do have a glut of certain types of inventories or items they may have ordered last year or thought that people were going to need this year and now they need to get rid of them. Some money is better than no money. I feel like a lot of people are looking at things from a broader economic perspective and investment perspective, a political perspective. And all of that's great. I'm looking at it from an HR perspective and a staffing perspective. And I'm sitting here thinking, I wonder if they're planning for layoffs, having these distribution facilities either cancelled or delayed trying to get rid of all of this extra merchandise? Are they trying to do this to avoid a layoff? Are they doing this because they think a layoff is coming? I don't know. I'm just making conjectures and just spitballing here, I don't know. But based on the tea leaves that I'm reading, and in my opinion, only not to be taken as advice of any kind, in my opinion only. I feel like corporate America is feeling more and more confident that you're not going to be at home, you're going to be butts in seats in an office, you're not going to be watching Netflix, you're not going to be riding a peloton bike, you're not going to need gadgets and doodads and every room in the house because everyone's home, the kids are doing distance learning. So they need appropriate equipment. And they also need things to be entertained with. So they'll leave you alone when you're on your 58 Zoom calls for the day. And you need devices and technology to do the job. They're really planning as best as I can tell that people are going to be back but in seat in the cube farm. I could be wrong, I don't know. But I think if you're the type of person that has a really strong commitment to work from home, and you don't want to be back in an office every day or you don't want to do some kind of weird worst of both worlds hybrid model. This is the time to pay attention not to go into a state of denial but to pay attention and to figure out your options. So it's Tuesday now and if you check the news, you will definitely see a strange mixed bag. on CNBC we have headlines such as dow trims losses, tech stocks rise as investors way slowing economy and falling interest rates. The second half is not looking good strategists on how to weather the market storm. Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again. Oil tumbles as much as 10% breaks below 100 A barrel as recession fears mount Euro slides to 20 year low against the dollar amid recession worries Bitcoin prices slip crypto winters latest victim and the hype over polygon. luxury car buyers shell out more than ever with car payments that look more like mortgage payments. Fourth of July weekend marred by violent shootings across the US why driving Big Rig trucks is a job fewer Americans dream about doing. Oil could plummet to the $60 meaning like the 60s per barrel. If a recession hits city speculates Ford posts increase in sales but misses analysts expectations. Bank of England's Bailey warns global economic outlook has deteriorated materially Oh, but now remember, there's been plenty of people out there who have told you this is nothing like 2007 and 2008. Sure. Now I want to click on this article about luxury car buyers. And I want to read a few parts of it for you now naturally, I will drop a link to it and in the write up for this episode so you can see it for yourself. If you can't even find a new car to buy actually purchasing it is going to cost you limited inventory due to a persistent shortage of computer chips along with other supply chain challenges help propel new car prices up 12.6% from a year ago and used car prices 16.1% Higher according to the latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for new cars, the average transaction price is expected to reach an all time high of $45,844 in June, according to a separate JD Power slash LMC automotive forecast and quote, holy poop. So one thing to note, when they're talking about the average transaction price, they're not talking about luxury vehicles and that statistic, they're talking about the average across the board. So for something more economical than a quote, luxury car, the average transaction price is expected to be almost $46,000 That is unfathomable to me. Now I'm going to scroll down a little further into the article and read again. For the first time just over 12% of consumers who financed a new car in June committed to a monthly payment of $1,000 or more. The highest level on record compared with 7.3%. One year ago Edmonds found and quote wow, I mean Just wow, that is so mind blowing for me. If you go over to car and driver.com, they have an article, I will drop a link to it, talking about the average monthly payment. So again, we're not talking specifically about these individuals who are going and trying to finance luxury vehicles, which let's, let's think about that for just a second. Okay, let's let's do a little head scratching here and really contemplate if someone were independently wealthy. If they had won the lottery, if Great Aunt Harriet died and left them with a $5 million windfall. Why would they need to finance a luxury vehicle, and if somebody's independently wealthy, they have a huge pot of money from winning the lottery, I would think that they would just go and pay cash for the vehicle rather than financing it out. And having an interest rate, it would be cheaper, I mean, cars are going to depreciate anyway, the value of them will go down immediately as soon as you drive them off the lot. But you know, I would think an independently wealthy person in order to avoid paying interest and being on the hook for an unnecessary payment over the course of time, we just walk into a dealership or they would send their people I guess, to do it for them, and pay cash for the vehicle. And that would be that. So who is it that's financing these luxury vehicles and paying more than $1,000 a month, I have to believe on some level. And this is just my opinion. And I could be wrong. I have to believe on some level that it's probably people who aren't really very affluent, but they are trying to keep up with the Joneses and project, some kind of image of wealth they're trying to look nouveau riche. They're trying to look flashy and parvenu. And I just, oh, what are they going to do when the band stops playing? Alright, so when we get over to Car and Driver, we learned that depending on who you ask, the average car buyer in the US is paying 657, which comes from edmunds.com research, or $712 a month, which comes from Moody's research. So either way, let's let's just split the difference. Let's say give or take a little in either direction. It's more like about 685 bucks a month for the average new car payment. That still is mind boggling to me. The last time that I bought and financed out a new car. The payment was a little less than $400 a month. And I felt like that was highway robbery. I was so pissed off at having to pay that amount of money. It's like almost $400 for a car when When did this happen? That's absurd. So looking at it now, especially here in recession mode because I'll tell you guys, you know I'm very good about pulling the curtain back and being transparent with you. When I go into recession mode, I can do it quickly and I can get real cheapskate real fast when I need to. The idea of paying $685 a month for a brand new car is physically painful like it it makes my stomach hurt to even contemplate doing something like that. If we go over to Yahoo Finance likewise, we see a strange mixed bag. Stocks off lows while recession concerns linger. Oil slides below $100 per barrel. Investor jitters over the potential for a deeper economic downturn persisted hmm wonder why that would be only one thing we'll send gas back below $4 A gallon analysts says travel slowing as consumers see a no win situation. Why Wall Street glue is a good sign for the Stock Market Strategist says home sellers realizing it's no longer their market. I guess that headline is going to stay up for a while. Our markets under estimating how far the Fed must go to tame inflation. Morgan Stanley says US growth slowdown worse than expected. Imagine that. If you hop over to the side panel on LinkedIn news, you will see oil prices skid on recession worries remote jobs have strings attached who wants suburban office life now? hopping around Europe lever like dry cleaning profit washes up millennial boom times may be over? liquidators, Baskin oversupply if we click on this article titled remote jobs have strings attached and we read the blurb we find remote work is in demand but job seekers are reporting a frustrating roadblock. The Wall Street Journal writes, companies may list a job is fully remote only to require a hybrid work schedule or occasional in person meetings. I've warned you guys about that before prospective employees say they feel led on especially after their deep into the application or or interview process. Employers say job search platforms sometimes force them to oversimplify location requirements. Hmm while others will still advertise a position as remote as long as most of the job can be done from home and quote, yep, I, if you check out my blog if you're a frequent tuner enter of this podcast then you already know what time it is. And you already know that I have been warning you about this exact phenomenon. Read the fine print, ask good questions. And don't be afraid to be probative either be direct, is this job 100% remote 100% of the time, would I ever be expected to attend something in person. And if at all possible, in your in the job description that you sign or in an employment contract that you sign that's an actual written document. Don't in my opinion, in my opinion, it is not a wise idea to just trust a verbal comment that's made to you in passing, especially if there aren't any witnesses around where it would be your word against somebody else's. If at all possible, try to get something put in writing, which plainly articulates this job is 100% remote 100% of the time, you'll never be expected to be on site for any reason. If you don't do that, you could potentially be leaving yourself open for exactly what's being talked about in this article. Back on May 27, I published a blog post titled playing the RTO game. And in the final paragraph of that blog post I write if you are negotiating for a completely remote only role, you should consider these fine print situations is it remote only except for four weeks out of the year when you have to make travel arrangements and go somewhere for team building BS. These are important questions to ask for me remote only means exactly that 100% remote 100% of the time zero exceptions. I try as best as I can to be out on the leading edge of this information and to get it out to people as quickly as possible. Not because I'm out here trying to chase social media clout or be the first one to break some news. I'm too old for that. I don't even really understand what social media cloud is to be right honest with you. Okay, I'm trying to get the word out so that people don't get caught off guard, especially in the job market. Because if you think that corporate America doesn't have a huge advantage over the majority of people right now who live paycheck to paycheck, or some of these goofballs that are going out and financing a luxury vehicle for more than $1,000 a month. I don't know what else to tell you. Okay, we've made it to Wednesday. Over on CNBC. headlines such as dow slips 100 points as investors watch recession signals and oil prices plunging euro to cause serious earnings trouble for some US stocks. Treasury yields jumped in choppy trading yield curve remains inverted. peloton sweetens employee pay incentives as it fights to boost morale and stage a turnaround. Biden administration plans to make sweeping changes to the broken student loan system. Over on Yahoo Finance stocks mostly flat amid choppy day. The risk of a recession remain top of mind for investors. Oil prices. Experts predict how low they could go in a recession. US oil plunges under $96 A barrel as recession fears mount gas prices set to tumble. I hope so. Or they could stand to tumble a little bit. They're pretty high. Will that happen? I don't know. Meanwhile, a news alert popped up this afternoon on my phone from Business Insider and the headline reads new hires are getting salary raises after just weeks on the job as companies give in to cost of living based pay increases report says the little TLDR bullet points read. Companies are offering multiple salary increases per year to stem worker attrition Wall Street Journal reported some employers are factoring in inflation which hit a 40 year high in the US in June into pay rises 70% of companies implemented larger salary increases this year versus 2021 According to a study. Now the article that this article references I feel like we're already in the metaverse or like Inception this article to get that one to get that one. The article that that one references on the Wall Street Journal reads bosses offer mid year raises to retain employees as inflation takes toll. T Rowe Price Exxon and others say higher pay is needed to keep up with rivals or to reflect that staffers are paying more for gasoline and groceries. Now it looks like you do have to be a subscriber to read the full article which I am not going to do so we will only get a snippet of it which I will read for you here. It's a summary of pay increases at many big US companies to address inflation and to retain workers and what many executives say remains a tough labor market. Some large employers, some large employers, some large employers are raising salaries or doling out special bonuses. Exxon Mobil gave us employees a one time payment in June, equivalent to 3% of their salaries. Price Waterhouse Coopers LLP says it will hand out raises in July to reflect its performance in its fiscal year that just ended note, its fiscal year that just ended. Microsoft told employees the spring it plan to nearly double its global budget. And that's about all we can see without subscribing which again, I'm in cheapskate mode. So I'm not going to do that. But I think you get what I'm saying some large employers are raising salaries and Price Waterhouse Coopers is going to hand out arrays to reflect the performance it had last year. I really think that 2023 is going to be a difficult ballgame. I hope I am wrong. I really do. But I worry that I'm not never an outlet to miss out on a chance to jump on the bandwagon. If you go over to LinkedIn news, you'll see a headline job market stays hot as economy cools. If you read the blurb, you will find companies were hunting for new hires at near record levels and may even as the economic outlook grew increasingly gloomy, there were 11 point 3 million available positions in May, According to the Labor Department's job openings and labor turnover survey, aka jolts. That's a slight drop from the 11 point 7 million in April, but above the 11 million forecast by many economists, there are now two jobs available for every unemployed person. Federal Reserve officials have cited that figure as proof the economy is strong enough to weather more aggressive interest rate hikes and quote, yeah, people get ready. I feel like this is another example of Nothing to see here. People move along, the economy is doing great. People have a ton of money and savings. They're not racking up credit card debt, the Fed can just keep hiking those interest rates, and we're going to be doing fine. Okay. And if you believe that, do I personally think that there are two open jobs available for every one unemployed person? No, I don't. Do I think that there are still 11 point 3 million truly open truly available positions right now? No, I don't. Sorry, I don't. That information does not match what I'm seeing in real time out in the market. And it does not reflect what I am being told by candidates, people who tell me in earnest I have applied all over the place. And I can't even hardly get callbacks. Or I went to this restaurant with a help wanted sign in the window and was told by the manager well actually, we can't fill that position right now. Sorry, you're out of luck. Or I applied at every retail store in town. Only one place actually called me back and they were the winner by default because I had to have a job. You know, there's definitely something fishy about all of this. And I don't subscribe to some of the truly weird conspiracy theories that are going around the interwebs right now about what supposedly happened to all of these workers. And believe me, there are some doozies out there. Everything from these people blipped like the fan owes finger snap. These people got abducted by aliens, these people are still somehow living off of stimulus money in grandma's basement. These people are living in tents. They're off the grid, everybody just sold out during the economic real estate boom last year, they're flush with cash. So they decided to go live in a tent out by the river and they're just counting their money and waiting to make their next move. And I'm like, these theories are getting crazier and crazier. In my experience, a lot of people job hopped, they spent the great resignation, job hopping. And in some cases, it was more like quantum leaping all over the job market today on here and next month, I'm there and then I'll give that job a couple of months and the first time that my boss looks at me sideways and I'll quit and then I'll go over here. There were a lot of people that spent the great resignation job hopping hither hither and yon. They did not disappear. They didn't move off grid. They didn't get abducted by alien life forces. They're still here and they're still wanting a lot of in a lot of cases to continue job hopping. And I feel like these articles that are a bit misleading in my opinion, okay, these huge global conglomerates are giving out pay raises to their employees based on how flushed they were with cash last year, to say nothing about what's going on in this fiscal year and what ramifications we may see by this time in 2023. Oh no. Don't think about that don't use any kind of critical thinking. Don't question what you're being told in the media that the job market is red hot, you just keep on job hopping. You keep spending your money and Yolo and FOMO. And we are doing great. Do you think that that's true? Because in my opinion, I don't think that it is just like, I don't think that millions of workers are hanging out in grandma's basement. That would be a lot of individuals in a lot of Grandma's basements, making that stimulus money work for them. I would love to know, if somebody got like a 1200 or $1,400 stimulus check. And they've been able to live off of that. For this span of time. I would love to know how they parlayed that. Even even if they were just hanging out in in Nana's basement this whole time like How have you been able to live a good life on that small amount of money for this length of time? So there yes, there are tons of crazy bizarro theories floating around on the interwebs. And I don't pay much attention to those because I'm in the job market every single day, just as I have been for over a decade now. And in the same way that I don't believe huge amounts of workers just vanish and blipped out of the system. Not everybody is lazy. Not everybody's in grandma's basement. Not everybody's out in a tent, counting their real estate Hoard. Not everybody became a cryptocurrency millionaire, and they're living on a beach giving everybody the bird now, I don't believe that I think a lot of people have just simply job hopped. I also think that the rate of unemployment is higher than what we're being told. And I think that there are less open jobs that companies are actually serious about hiring for them what we're being told, I don't think that the average John Q Public out on the street is going to get some big pay raise from a global conglomerate. And I think unfortunately, that reading articles such as that if you are just a random person, out on the street that doesn't know much about the job market doesn't know much about HR, staffing and recruiting and you see that headline or you read that snippet or that blurb, then you think, oh, everything's great. These people that are talking about we're already in a recession, they must be full of it. This lady on her podcast saying all that glitters is not gold, she must be full of it, too. I'm just gonna keep job hopping. I'm gonna keep spending my money. I'll be the grasshopper that's saying all summer. And it'll be fine. Because hey, there's still two open jobs for every one unemployed person. Who, Lord have mercy. You know, believe that at your own risk. Do your own due diligence, do your own research, talk to professionals, this is not advice. This is simply me opining for your entertainment only. And for your entertainment only. I think it would be a great idea to do some research and some due diligence. And definitely if you're thinking about making a job change, look before you late. So we've made it to Thursday now. And before I get into today's news that you can use, there is something that I wanted to talk about quickly. When I published my episode about job market predictions for your entertainment only back on June 30. One of the predictions that I made was that I would not be surprised to see an influx of HR or staffing or recruiting folks turning to coaching without understanding how saturated that market already is and how insane that the industry can be. Well, lo and behold, we can see evidence of that prediction already coming to pass. I was on LinkedIn yesterday evening, I had a project that got kicked off kind of later in the day on Wednesday. So I wound up being online later than I would normally like to be. But one of the funny side effects of that is that in my LinkedIn feed, I saw three separate people, all from the HR and staffing realm that were putting shingles out making their official announcements on LinkedIn that they are now coaches and I thought well ding ding Here we go. So if we head over to CNBC and take a look at the headlines we find UK Prime Minister Johnson resigns. So our old friend Bo Jo, who says if you work from home, you drink too much coffee and you eat too much cheese he goes so I guess you'll have all the time he wants to now to drink too much coffee and eat too much cheese. Dow climbs 200 points as Wall Street looks to build on recent gains. 26% of concert goers plan to take on debt to attend shows the summer. But remember, everyone is doing great. They've got plenty of money and savings. They're not racking up credit card debt. Everything is great. Goldman slashes GDP forecast for the second quarter to just barely above water. Russia says the West risks wrath of God if it punishes Moscow over the war. One particular headline I want to focus on is jobless claims edge up to highest since January. Planned layoffs soar trade deficit hits 2022 low. Now it's interesting because this headline has been revised earlier this morning. It said unexpected apparent least someone has taken that out of the headline title. I sort of laughed at myself because I thought, well, if you have been tuning into this podcast, especially the Saturday broadcast, if you've been dipping in and reading my blog, it's not unexpected to you. But think about just random people out in the public who believe whatever they hear on the news, they don't fact check it against what they're actually seeing in real time out in the market. They just listened to the talking heads, labor shortage, labor shortage, like a bad parent or market is tight market is tight. And so they think, Okay, well, you know, just yesterday, we were told that there are still two open jobs for every one unemployed person. So I imagine this would be like getting slapped across the face with a frying pan. Oh, oh, whoa, layoffs are coming. Whoa. But thankfully, if you're here, then you're already aware you already know what time it is. So I'll read now from a little key points, which is their sort of TLDR blurb. Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 235,000 for the week ended July 2, a gain of 4000. From the previous period, the US imbalance for goods and services declined to 85 point 5 billion from 86 point 7 billion in April. And this is the one I want to really hone in on. Another report indicated that companies announced 32,517 layoffs in June, a 57% jump from a month ago, and the highest total since February of 2021. I feel like this is another reason why the unemployment rate is considered a lagging indicator. It has the tendency to jump up quickly, but it's slow to abate. I feel like a broken record. But I'm gonna say it again, in my opinion, by the time that some political pundit or some talking head gets on TV and tells you we are officially in a recession, we are officially dealing with high unemployment, it's too late. Okay. If you are waiting around for official proclamations, you're not trying to get your house in order. You're not trying to take a look at whether your job and your industry is stable, and you feel good about it. You're waiting too late, in my opinion. This past Sunday, I published an article on medium.com called they changed their tune. And it really is about the sort of headline manipulation that we see going on in the media. And I'll read from that article for you now, not long ago perusing CNBC would make you feel pretty bullish. I talked about this many times on my podcast, nothing to see here. People everything's fine. Except was everything fine? I don't think so. Here's one example. And the headline reads recruiters say the tech job market is still red hot, despite isolated layoffs and cautious words from execs. A red hot market. How about that? Well, not so fast. That article has now been reframed, tech hiring, slowdown, not happening. Recruiters say, I guess we'll just ride into the recession with a battle of semantics. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find stocks rise again, jobless claims data surprises slightly. Mm hmm. The retail stock route may only just be starting. And I'm hearing again, this is not my industry. It's not my niche. But I am hearing from people for whom retail is their niche. It is their stock and trade. that retail is in trouble. People I guess are stealing meat and cheese and there are certain stores that are having to put those anti theft devices on grocery items. So it sounds like it could be getting pretty hairy out there. The biggest Ponzi scheme in history this CEO warns that the feds strategy has created a giant bubble in housing. Should we still trust the Fed this big week has serious concerns. But remember, there are plenty of realtors and mortgage brokers who are happy to tell you that this is not 2007 or 2008. It is not a housing bubble. These are not the drones you're looking for. We could never go through something like that. Again. All of the loans that are being handed out are financially stable and sound. We could just never go through a situation where you might be upside down on a mortgage. You just keep buying those overpriced poopoo houses and nothing to see here. People move along, move along. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn news. There's an article today called look both ways before quitting. In the blurb we read wanting to put in your two weeks notice or hoping to transition into a new role. The Wall Street Journal suggests monitoring layoffs, unemployment and quit rates pay increases and labor demand. Economists say that decreased wage growth and a steady rise in jobless claims, possibly due to the latest layoffs in industries such as tech retail In real estate, show labor demand may already be slowing in quote. Okay, sometimes all you can do is laugh rather than cry, but it's like, yeah, this is another example another classic example of by the time some talking head tells you, hey, let me give you a little poke in the ribs and tell you what's going on. It's too late. It's too late. Maybe it's too late. At the risk of sounding like I'm tooting my own horn, I will tu tu tu tu tu tu. Back in May. So there's an article published on May 11. I was interviewed by the Fairmont post, to answer this question of should job hoppers leap one more time. So I feel like I was trying my best to get the word out back then. So here we are. It's almost two months later. And LinkedIn is kind of like, Hey, you should probably check things out. Look before you leap. And it's like, Well, do you think do you think part of what I say in that interview is weigh the pros and cons. In many layoff situations, the last one hired as the first one to receive a pink slip. This is not always the case to be clear, but it does happen. So another factor to consider is the value of your tenure at your current job. Always do your research. Do your own due diligence and don't get happy IRS about a large paycheck or corporate perks. Take a look at the company's reputation as well as its financial profile. If that information is publicly available, did they recently have a layoff? Is their stock price going down? Are employees leaving terrible reviews online? Talented recruiters can be like talented salespeople part of their job is to sell you on working at their company. So be sure you do your own independent research. Earlier today, there were I don't know maybe 1500 2000 people that had all sealed clapped some nonsense posed by a so called LinkedIn influencer about how no salary or no amount of money is worth staying in a bad job. And I thought, okay, cool. Cool. Cool. Cool. Cool. So if that person quits a bad job without having something else lined up immediately that feels safe and stable to them? Are you going to pay their bills? Are you going to show up and buy their groceries and help them out after they read your inspirational post and seal clapped on it on LinkedIn? I mean, are you are you going to do that for them or not? Again, broken record, really great time to get strategic and intentional about who you're listening to and where you're getting your advice. Hmm. All right. So we made it to Friday, I am really glad because as per usual, I am spent. I was really busy today with various and sundry things, including just normal run of the mill work and farm chores. So it was late in the evening. Bonus points to you. If you remember that Paul Simon song, it was late in the evening before I could get a few errands run. Same thing that I've noticed before empty spaces on the shelves, some products were moved to the front to make it look like there was more product, their overhead lights being kind of turned off in random places and the air conditioner not feeling like it was on all the way and it was brutal. Today, there were places in Oklahoma where the heat index was like 117 where I'm at it was like 112. So it was it was pretty gnarly outside. Today's headlines were absolutely all over the place. So I guess it kind of turned out to be a good thing from a recording standpoint that I was so busy, because all throughout the day, it would just seem to be one thing after another. So yesterday, we learned that Boris Johnson, our old friend Bo Joe thinks you drink too much coffee too much cheese he resigned. We also learned that on July 5, apparently the OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo died at the age of 63. So it wasn't like he was 95 100 years old. He died at 63, the former Prime Minister of Japan Ave was assassinated. Vladimir Putin has said that there would be a catastrophic energy crisis if the West decides to bolster its sanctions. And he has also said that from the Russian perspective, they haven't even gotten started yet. Meaning if the Western world America I guess in particular threatens him we ain't seen nothing yet is essentially what he's saying. So I don't know what is going on. I don't know what's in the air geopolitically, but none of this is sounding good. Meanwhile, back at the ranch here in America, we're told that the jobs report is great. It is fan tabulous If you're surprised by that, you probably shouldn't be because I I certainly didn't think they were gonna say anything different. So apparently employers added 372,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remains unchanged from May it is still at a very low 3.6%. And if you believe that as CNBC says big payroll gains push recession fears into the corner for now, Yahoo Finance takes it a step further by saying that the jobs data make a mockery of recession fears. Honestly, the first thing that I thought of was that episode of SNL from the 80s, where John Malkovich does this sketch where he thinks everyone is mocking him all the time, the insolence and bold affrontare. It makes, it makes a mockery of any of you out there who think we're in a recession all. Before I start covering the other general headlines of the day, I just I the only thing that I can do is tell the truth as I see it, and speak on what I am seeing in real time in the job market every single day. And I still feel bearish, I personally still feel that we are in a recession, I personally still do not believe that unemployment is truly at 3.6%. And that there is currently two open jobs to open and legitimate jobs that someone actually wants to hire for. For every one unemployed person who's out there looking. I don't believe that I'm so sorry. But I don't, it just doesn't match up. It doesn't sync up with what I am seeing in real time. And one of the reasons why it was kind of late in the day before I could get to my errands and my whatnots is because I was able to finally sit down with a job seeker and conduct an interview that I will broadcast now, it's probably going to take me some time, because I'm going to have to be really, really careful about protecting his privacy. So I'm gonna have to run everything through this voice disorder. And I haven't found anything that sounds natural, which I guess is okay. Because since I have to camouflage his identity and camouflage his voice, it may sound more like me sitting down with a robot man. But in any event, he talks about what he has seen as a job seeker. So I talked about what I see as a staffing and recruiting expert, interfacing with clients interfacing with candidates giving you my side of the story. And then he John Doe is obviously what I'll call him. John Doe is going to tell you what he is seeing in real time as someone who has been a job seeker. And he also is not seeing Oh, there's this plethora of jobs and these companies are super desperate to hire and everyone's super motivated, like, all I can do is tell you what I'm seeing from my perspective, and I personally do not see evidence that unemployment is three 3.6%. There's two open jobs sincerely for every one person that's unemployed. And we're still in this hot, super hot labor shortage, super hot job market. It's just not what I'm seeing. So if we go over to the LinkedIn side panel, and we see stories such as Musk informs Twitter, the deal is off. Right after that. We also see layoffs hit Twitter's recruiters, tech workers in for a reality check. Russian Minister slams West at g 20. mortgage rate relief may not last Do you think jobless claims up amid hiring spree? Pom Pom Pom Pom Pom Pom Pom? Well, how could that be? How could that be? If there are two open jobs for every one person who's actually unemployed? If unemployment is 3.6%? Well, how could jobless claims be up amid a hiring spree? Something seems rotten in the state of Denmark. Over on CNBC, we see Elon Musk notifies Twitter, he is terminating the deal. And then we also read Elon Musk has been expressing buyer's remorse over Twitter for months, Musk faces legal war with Twitter, which has the upper hand as he abandoned steel. So that sounds like it's gonna turn into a lawsuit happy situation. The NASDAQ rises for fifth straight day after strong jobs report as Wall Street notches winning weak, the US to send another 400 million in military aid to the Ukraine, Russia hits out at West at g 20. Bitcoin heads towards best week since October as crypto collapse stabilizes. Wow. So somehow, in the midst of all of this upheaval, in the midst of the threat of world war three, which I can't imagine, I hope and pray that war does not breakout. I don't want war to break out anywhere. But when you think about the catastrophic situation that would occur nuclear warfare in this century and how awful that would be. I mean, I don't even want to fathom it. I don't even I want to allow my mind to go there. I'm just thinking from a Slavic perspective, I have Slavic ancestry. I need to practice. I'm rusty, but I speak some Russian and I also have some proficiency in Croatian and Serbian, a little bit in Polish. If you think Russian is a difficult language, you know, God help you with Polish. It's, it's a very difficult language. But one of the things that you begin to understand when you dive into a language and you're having language exchanges and lessons is you you also begin to understand the mindset and the culture and the lens through which different people from other cultures other nations how they see the world. And you know, Slavic people are tough. They are tough. We here in America, we're spoiled. We are so spoiled ocean is fortune. We're spoiled, and we're pampered. We've had a lot of things given to us easy. You know, that's like when McDonald's said that they were leaving Russia, the Russians were gonna like okay, bye bye. Don't speed on. Yeah, we, we don't care because they're not over there eating by and large. They're not over there eating fast food joints every day. You know, you think about the the riots that would take place in America, if someone said no more soda pop, no more fast food, people would be mega pissed. But over there, it's just different. Several years back, I remember seeing a news story about this Belarusian man who was flying like one of those para trike things. And he I don't know, if he lost control of it, something happened. And he crashed into a forest and he was impaled by a tree. And there are pictures of him with this tree, a tree sticking out of his arm. And he was like posing for pictures. And I just thought like, you know that that kind of says it right there. Like there's, there's a certain amount of grit, a certain amount of toughness that comes with with having some of these people lived through communist rule. They live through the Soviet Union. I have a Russian friend who is in her late 50s. And she has told me many stories about what it was like in the Soviet era, and what it took to survive. And I just think like, Okay, we've got McDonald's, and Coca Cola and central air conditioning, and TV and everything on demand. And so my point in saying this is I am scared to think about what would happen in the event of some full scale, terrible, horrible war. And I hope and pray that that does not happen, I hope that there can be some resolution. I and I don't know where that's going. And in the same way, I'm quite frankly, skeptical that there's nothing to see here. People move along, move along, unemployment is low. Hahaha, all of you bears are wrong. And we're not going to have a recession. And everything's peaches and cream. I kind of feel like this is one of those situations where all of these supposedly good news reports are being used to paper over the complete and utter poop storm that's actually brewing up. Maybe we will find out after the midterms are over with in this country. Oh, ha, JK everyone's unemployed. You know, like, there'll be some sudden report really saying like, the unemployment rate is actually much higher. And we actually are in a recession and we're teetering on the brink of war. Who knows? Who knows I'm politically agnostic. On this podcast, I'm not going to get into anything of a political nature like that, trying to pick sides. Just huge. No thanks on that. I think it's important to stay alert, stay prepared. Do your gut checks, you know, if you're spiritual pray, meditate. Get in contact with your higher power or your higher self and just really think about what you're seeing. Do you feel that your personal economy is doing great? Do you feel that gas prices are will just continue to go down? Do you feel that grocery prices are gonna go down? I mean, what do you think at the end of the day, that's what really matters because you have to take care of yourself and your family. So when the dust settles, how do you think that all of this will play out? That's not a question that I can answer. It's a question that only you can answer for yourself. In the meantime, stay safe, stay healthy, and I'll see you in the next episode.