1.3.23 Guild Mortgage's David Battany on Capital Markets Trends; Trading to Open 2023

Thanks to MCT and its Hedge Advisory. Comprehensive capital markets software and services that empower secondary marketing performance! 

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I am very happy that my life is perfect. Isn’t yours? When I order scrambled eggs at the diner, the waitress says, “Perfect.” When I pay with a credit card at the car wash, the attendant replies with, “Perfect.” I tell the dry cleaner I’d like my shirts not wrapped in plastic. “Perfect.” Watch out for those “perfects” out there. One thing that was definitely not perfect was the ending of 2022 for residential lenders and their vendors. Just because the calendar turned a day or two doesn’t mean rates have done much, nor margins, nor revenue. Ready for a repeat of the 4th quarter of 2022 in the 1st quarter of 2023? Have vendors and lenders made the necessary cuts, in sales and operations, to keep pace with industry volumes being down 50 percent from a few years ago? How’s your “tech spend” as you enter 2023? (Let’s ask Southwest Airlines how its low tech spend worked out. Speaking of Southwest, thinking about switching and using Spirit Airlines instead? This comedian has some thoughts on that!) Vendors and lenders are competing for the business and trying to stay positive, but some are throwing hands in the air and “hoping” to make it. “Hope” has never been a great strategy, and investors are seeing a number of their clients leave their delegated UW status, and become brokers or Non Delegated correspondents. Change is constant. (Today’s podcast is sponsored by MCT and its Hedge Advisory. Comprehensive capital markets software and services that empower secondary marketing performance! Today’s features an interview with David Battany of Guild Mortgage on current trends in the capital markets and some of the new programs his company has rolled out to drive origination.)

Employment, and an untimely death

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“#1 = STABLE ORIGINATION PLATFORM, nothing else matters for you or your customers unless you are supported by a stable origination platform. Realtors and borrowers are starting to ask more questions regarding this matter based on media headlines around recent mortgage company closures, mergers & acquisitions, lack of communication, etc. WATERSTONE MORTGAGE COMPANY offers the security of a Bank-owned organization with the flexibility of an independent mortgage banker. With the ability to lend in 48 States, along with offering Bank portfolio products and only through a retail lending channel, certainly qualifies for an intelligent conversation with us. Our current initiative at WATERSTONE MORTGAGE COMPANY of leaning into a market filled with adversity and identifying opportunities, will revive your energy and attitude to grow your market share in 2023! Call Richard Pierce, Area Manager Western Region (602)-620-6969. HAPPY NEW YEAR!”

Word went out yesterday that Regina Lowrie, CMB, has suddenly, tragically passed away. Regina had more than 30 years of experience in the financial services industry, was the Founder, President, and CEO of RML Investments Inc., d/b/a RML Advisors, the first woman Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the first woman to lead the MBA of Greater Philadelphia. I will miss seeing her smile at conferences and hearing about her mentoring new people in our biz.

Lender and broker software, products, and services

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In less than 60 days, the FHFA will require lenders to collect data about the borrower’s language preferences, as well as what they’ve done to educate themselves on homeownership. Click here to view the press release. “We’ve already seen a few industry giants launch Spanish-language homebuyer education tools in anticipation of this,” said Gibran Nicholas, CEO of Momentifi, a bi-lingual content marketing platform. “Why should smaller lenders and brokers get left behind?” Momentifi’s full content library contains over 150 personally branded bi-lingual resources that originators can use to market themselves and educate homebuyers. But wait, there’s more! Creating consistent content is the #1 challenge that social media marketers have according to Hubspot research. What if you could get done-for-you personally branded marketing content in two languages, and catch up with the industry giants in one smart move? Click here to learn more or sign up for Momentifi’s FREE 14-day trial.

“Happy New Year from the Axos Bank’s Warehouse Lending team! Kickoff the year by meeting with us at the Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference in Coronado, California, from Jan. 23-26. Our diverse array of Agency, Jumbo, and Non-QM products, expanded portfolio programs, and extended cutoff times (6:15 p.m. ET) give you the flexibility you need to be a top producer in today’s market. Schedule a meeting with us to discuss your business strategy and how a partnership with Axos Bank can help grow your business. Email Eric Nelepovitz to lock in a meeting time. You can also contact the Warehouse Lending team at 888-764-7080 to learn more about our program.”

NEW EBOOK: Launching Home Loans: How to Build a Profitable & Scalable Mortgage Operation. As pent-up mortgage market demand grows, the question becomes: Who will cater to the needs of up-and-coming borrowers? Now is an ideal time to capture market share in anticipation of the next inevitable upswing. By setting the infrastructure for mortgage operations now, entrants can successfully grab a piece of the pie as strong demand drives industry growth in coming years. If you’re considering taking a first step into mortgages, or introducing new loan options, your research has likely unearthed the substantial opportunities, as well as challenges, inherent to launching home loans. In this eBook, mortgage solutions provider Maxwell dives into the benefits mortgage operations offer and outlines the logistics, costs, and requirements you’ll want to consider. Click here to download Launching Home Loans: How to Build a Profitable & Scalable Mortgage Operation.

Events, webinars, and training

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Yes, things quiet down during the holidays, but January and beyond is busy, busy, busy. Let’s take a gander.

There’s the Mortgage Influencers Podcast every at 1:30 pm. Register here or watch on the Facebook group Mortgage Influencers.

This Friday at 3PM ET is the next edition of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown with Rich Swerbinsky, special guest Robbie Chrisman, and me. We’ll will be covering current events in the mortgage market for 30 minutes starting at noon PT in “The Rundown with Rich and Rob”!

The private mortgage insurance companies certainly offer a fine set of classes: National MI University, the Enact’s course catalog of on-demand webinars, MGIC, Essent, Radian, and ARCH MI.

Join Fairway Wholesale Lending for a New Webinar, “Using Social Media to Increase Leads,” Tuesday, January 10 at 1 pm CST. Learn how you can leverage social media to increase leads. From understanding your audience to content strategies, our VP of Digital Strategy, Ben Smidt, will show you how to use Instagram insights, build LinkedIn relationships, and explain why Facebook is still an opportunity.

Register for CRMLA’s January 12th Lunch and Learn-State of the Market, hear from Tiffany Johannes, President-Elec, Canopy Realtor® Association about the current real estate market in the Metrolina area.

Meet the MBA of St. Louis 2023 Board at the January 12, 11:30 - 1:30 pm Luncheon at Syberg's. Hear presenter Charles ("Chuck") S. Gascon, senior economist in the Research division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, discuss the future of the 2023 economy. Cost for MBA Members is $40.00, Non-MBA Members - $65.00.

There’s the upcoming MISMO Winter Summit, January 9 - 12, in Delray Beach, FL and learn what's hot in mortgage standards. Network and collaborate with your industry colleagues while learning the latest updates on mortgage industry standards.

GRCForte’s live webinar, Credit Risk Management: Principles and Practices, Tools and Techniques, is on Thursday, January 12 at 12:00 pm PST. Speaker Dev Strischek, principal of Devon Risk Advisory Group, will discuss elements and types of credit culture, framework for implementing desired credit culture, credit discipline tools to diagnose, maintain, and improve credit culture, managing transaction, intrinsic, and concentration credit risk, and credit policy and credit administration best practices.

Register for the CoAMP Real Estate Luncheon on January 13th from 12:30-2:30 at Comedy Works South. Elliot Eisenberg, PhD will present 2023 Housing Update. Attendance cost is

$69 for members and $99 for non-members.

Expand your competencies with a new training provided by Appraisal Institute. Register for General Appraiser Income Approach, Part 1 and gain a foundation in the application of direct capitalization using overall capitalization rates, band of investment, and residual techniques. January 17 – 27 | 10:00 AM - 1:30 PM CT | QE: 27 Hours.

Kick off 2023 with tips from Maryland's Top Loan Officers & Realtors. Join MMBBA for brunch, networking and 2 top producer panels on Wednesday January 18th. Learn from 3 of Maryland's top producers’ strategies to win more business, skills to navigate difficult markets, and ways to position yourself with realtors and potential borrowers.

After an unprecedented 2022, join me and Tabrasa's Bill Bodnar on Tuesday, Jan 17th at 2pm ET for the Tabrasa/MMG Industry Outlook 2023 where we discuss where we have been and where we are headed next.

Where is Non-QM Headed in 2023? Find out on Tuesday, January 24th, 1 PM EST, at the A&D Mortgage end-of-year webinar. Joined by leading industry experts, Rob Chrisman, Max Slyusarchuk, Alex Suslov, Billy Abrams and Derick Mildred will share their insights on what went down in 2022 and what we can expect in the coming year. From market analysis to regulatory changes to product innovation, this is one webinar you won't want to miss.

Registration is open for the largest industry event designed exclusively for MBA’s Independent Mortgage Banker executives and leadership of all sizes and business models. IMB23 Conference, scheduled for January 23-26 at Hotel Del Coronado in Coronado, CA., is the place to build your relationships, learn from other IMBs, and hear customized and curated programming focused on topical issues of the moment.

The new year is the ideal time for upskilling and earning your Real Estate Loan Compliance Certification will help you overcome the market downturn and fuel career growth. Register for BankersWeb training series, five sessions total beginning with Session 1 - The Lifecycle of a Mortgage Loan: Part One on Monday, February 6th at 12:00 PM Eastern; 9:00 AM Pacific.

Regulatory compliance counsel Michael Christians will explain the compliance requirements applicable to real estate loans. You will learn how to please borrowers while reducing liability for your institution. Can’t attend the live sessions? You can choose the self-paced certification option and get expert answers to your questions after the sessions.

This year TMBA's annual Southern Secondary Market Conference February 6th – 7th, will bring together hundreds of real estate finance leaders and decision makers. Held at the Westin Houston Memorial City Hotel, all conference attendees are eligible to play in a Poker Run event. No poker playing experience is needed, the cards speak for themselves. TMBA’s Warehouse Conclave will be held in conjunction with the Southern Secondary Market Conference on February 6th from 12:00-2:00 pm. *Separate registration required.

Fannie Mae’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan says housing will lead the economy through what he considers will be a mild recession in 2023. Join the Economic Forecast Series Webinar, Tuesday, February 14th @ 1 p.m. ET, to hear Doug expand on that and the outlook for the housing market.

MBA Servicing Solutions Conference and Expo is quickly approaching, February 21-24, 2023 in Orlando, FL. Take a look at what awaits you in Orlando so you can start making plans to attend MBA's Servicing Solutions Conference & Expo.

The 5th Annual SimpleNexus User Group (SNUG) conference is on March 13-16, 2023, at the Snowbird Mountain Resort with sessions focused on helping mortgage lenders optimize their incentive comp plans, maximize the advantages with eClose, deploy a unified business intelligence strategy, increase partner referrals, and fully embrace SimpleNexus' entire platform solution. Check out the full SNUG 2023 agenda and register now to lock in your early bird savings.

We have the Great River Conference from April 4-6 in Memphis, Tennessee.

And the Mortgage Bankers Association has several events planned for 2023, too many to list here.

Capital markets: lower rates to start 2023

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While central banks around the world ended 2022 gaining ground on inflation due to their rate increases, U.S. Treasury yields closed 2022 on a familiar note: higher across the curve. The risk-free 10-year U.S. Treasury was up 13-basis points for the week and 237-basis points for the year. There were thin trading conditions last week with people away from their desks, but most people are back for this holiday-shortened week to kick off 2023.

After the Treasury market was closed yesterday in observance of the New Year's Day holiday, this week’s economic calendar kicks off later today with the December S&P Global manufacturing PMI and November construction spending. The week’s economic calendar culminates with the December employment report on Friday, and also includes updates on PMIs, construction spending, ADP employment, job cuts, and trade figures. “Fedspeak” resumes with several Fed presidents scheduled to speak and the minutes from the December 13/14 Federal Open Market Committee meeting set for release tomorrow afternoon. December Agency MBS prepayments will be released after Friday’s close. We begin 2023 with Agency MBS prices better by .250-.375 and the 10-year yielding 3.76 after last closing at 3.88 percent based on some low inflation data from Germany. Are higher rates working?

I gave up drinking for the new year.

Sorry, that came out wrong…

I gave up.

Drinking for the new year.