7.29.25 Trading Trade Deals; RatePlug's Jeff and Brad Springer on Home Search; Auction Supply

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we review the market impact from Trump's trade deals. Plus, Robbie sits down with RatePlug’s Brad and Jeff Springer for a discussion on how the home property search process is evolving to include accurate, real-time home affordability information. And we close by looking ahead to this week's Fed decision.

Today's podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products -- nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics -- unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. See how nCino can support a homeownership journey that your borrowers and your team will love at nCino.com.

Transcript

Yesterday, Tampa set a record for its all-time high temperature (at least since man began keeping track, for you sticklers) while rain caused flooding in Reno, NV. It’s good to own an HVAC company. The people there and throughout much of the nation can use some… ice. For ice news of a different type, LOs took note when ICE Mortgage Technology estimated that, heading into the second quarter of 2025, U.S. mortgage borrowers held $11.5 trillion in “tappable” home equity, or equity available for borrowing while maintaining at least a 20 percent cushion. Forty percent of applications are for refis, per the MBA, so owners are certainly tapping into it. And the inventory of homes available for sale has increased. Of course, people don’t want more neighbors, more traffic, more congestion, more kids in the schools, more strain on the water system. The construction industry never fully recovered from the 2008 recession: fewer homes were built in the U.S. in the following ten years than in any decade since the 1960s, even as the population continued to grow. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products - nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics - unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with RatePlug’s Brad and Jeff Springer on how the home property search process is evolving to include accurate, real-time home affordability information.)

Jobs & transitions

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Deephaven offers a proprietary suite of non-QM products, second lien programs, residential transition loans, strong pricing, quick turn times, webinar support, best-in-class scenario desk, fully integrated platform, superior customer service, great benefits, and unmatched company culture. Contact Tom Davis or (954)-871-9299 for a confidential conversation or apply today by visiting here.

“Why choose between Banker, Correspondent, or Broker when you can have all three? At MortgageRight, you don’t have to pick a side. We give you access to all channels, so you can close more loans and serve more clients. As a Banker, you offer speed and control with in-house processing and funding. As a Correspondent, you gain access to aggressive pricing and flexible loan options. As a Broker, you stay competitive in even the tightest markets with niche products and rate shopping across multiple lenders. This hybrid model gives you a strategic edge: higher margins, faster closings, and more solutions for every borrower scenario. That means more approvals, more referrals, and faster business growth. Ready to win in every market condition? Call Alvaro or Mike at (866) 228-7703 or visit BranchRight.com to learn how MortgageRight’s all-channel platform helps top producers scale with confidence.”

Friday Harbor just expanded its leadership team with the addition of Chris Simms as head of strategic partnerships and Gregory Buehler as founding product engineer. “Gregory has more than 10 years of experience leading product development at early-stage B2B startups. Chris, who's also the current president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis, has 25 years of mortgage industry experience with lenders.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for lenders and brokers

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Earlier this July, Tijuana, Mexico, set a new Guinness World Record for the largest margarita at more than 9,000 gallons as part of its 136th-anniversary celebrations. Our good friends at Down Payment Resource, who’ve been tracking down payment assistance (DPA) by their own measurements since 2008, also have new record to share: According to DPR’s Q2 Homeownership Program Index (HPI) report, as of July 3 there were 2,554 programs available nationwide, at least one in every U.S. county, offering an average benefit of $18,000 and potentially lowering a borrower’s LTV ratio by 6 percent. While that may not be as entertaining for the masses as a 9,000-gallon tequila-infused beverage, it does represent thousands of opportunities for lenders to operationalize DPA as part of their purchase strategy. See how DPA can lift your spirits. Salud!

“While no one is quite ready to start thinking about back-to-school, we’re just 33 days away from the first day of class at Panoramic Capital Academy! Coming this fall, Panoramic is excited to announce that we’ve expanded our offering, launching an 8-week Executive course to accompany our 14-week Masterclass. Designed as a math-light alternative to our in-depth mortgage capital markets curriculum, the Executive course is perfect for those interested in strategy and execution but who may not want to deep dive into the more advanced analytics covered in the Masterclass. This new class is an ideal fit for everyone from branch managers to C-suite leaders. The Masterclass course begins on 8/31/25 and the Executive course will begin on 9/14/25. For more details about our comprehensive mortgage capital markets courses covering rate sheet pricing, hedging, servicing valuation and more, reach out to Rob Kessel at Rob Kessel, visit www.panoramiccap.com, and enroll now.”

“Why Brokers Choose Kind for Home Equity: Flexibility Meets Funding Power! At Kind Lending, we don’t just offer home equity solutions, we empower brokers with flexibility and speed that win deals. Our Flex HELOCs and Closed-End Seconds (CES) are purpose-built for today’s borrowers. Whether your client wants to keep their low first mortgage rate or access equity without a full refi, we’ve got the tools to make it happen. Choose from fixed or variable terms, support for primary, second home, and investment properties, and loan amounts up to $500K. Our broker portal, Kwikie, makes it simple. Our submission process is lightning-fast, and you’ll get hands-on support from a team that’s broker-first, every step of the way. Stay competitive. Close faster. Give your borrowers options that move with the market. Contact your Kind AE about our HELOC and CES options today! Not an approved partner yet? Click here to get started!”

Design something. Print it. Hold it in your hands within hours. The speed and control of 3D printing has democratized the way we create. Just watch as this guy 3D prints a pair of Crocs and slides his feet right in. How would you like to have that same power and control over the digital mortgage experience you present to borrowers? With its drag-and-drop builder, Tropos lets lenders spin up the borrower portal of their dreams in seconds… no coding or support tickets required. It’s as easy as pushing “print.” Build a better borrower experience with Tropos.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

How LOs Deal with AI, and Should Also Control Their Funnel

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On today's episode of Mortgages with Millennials at 10AM PT, Robbie is joined by Larry Bailey and Matt VanFossen for a deep dive into how technology is redefining the mortgage point-of-sale experience. They share their journeys into the mortgage tech space and discuss how LOs can cut through the AI hype to deliver real value and performance.

Over the weekend I received an “MLO VieauxPoint” from Brian Vieaux, CMB, President & COO of FinLocker & Founding ‘Expert’ of MLO Live, suggesting that LOs need to “control their funnel before someone else does.”

“Most loan officers say they want more leads. But very few have the systems, or staying power, to nurture leads that don’t convert immediately. That’s where the real opportunity lies.

“On last week’s Loan Officer Life podcast, I sat down with Andrew Pawlak, CEO of Rebel IQ, to unpack what it really takes to build a sustainable, organic lead funnel. Andrew has studied how the biggest marketing engines in mortgages, like Zillow and Bankrate, generate and convert leads. And he’s helped build similar playbooks for individual loan officers who want to own their funnel instead of renting it.

“Here’s the short version. Today’s buyers are using AI tools like ChatGPT to research lenders before they ever talk to you. If your digital footprint is weak, or nonexistent, you’re getting ghosted without even knowing it. Organic lead gen isn’t about hacks or gimmicks, it’s about showing up early, consistently, and with value. Consumers aren’t just comparing rates... They’re comparing you. And if your online presence doesn’t build trust, someone else’s will.

Read the full article on Chrisman Commentary: "Control the Top of Your Funnel. Or Compete with Those Who Do". Thank you, Brian! #VieauxPoint”

Capital markets: are traders tired of tariff volatility?

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“What makes innovative technology even more powerful? The people behind it. At Optimal Blue, our seasoned experts don’t just understand hedging and trading, they’ve lived it. From pre-market prep to post-close execution, they’re in your corner, helping you navigate risk, act decisively, and stay ahead of market shifts. Pair that expertise with CompassEdge, our hedging and loan trading platform, and the value multiplies. You get real-time insights, faster execution, and a strategy that flexes with the market, backed by a team that knows how to make it work for you. Whether you need full-service support or just another set of eyes, Optimal Blue delivers a high-performance engine built on people, powered by technology, and focused on your bottom line. Reserve your spot for “Maximize Profitability With a Smarter Hedging & Trading Strategy” on August 20 at noon CT to see how people and platform combine to drive measurable performance.”

Turning to the bond market & rates, yesterday was uneventful. Market reaction to the announcement of a trade deal with the EU over the weekend was subdued (similarities with the Japan deal must mean that it was roughly in-line with investor expectations?). At this stage, President Trump has reached bilateral trade agreements with many of our major trading partners, making for diminished prospects of Friday’s self-imposed August 1 deal deadline to be a market event.

The ongoing talks between China and the U.S. on extending the trade truce have similarly deemphasized the August 1 date, implying flexibility on timing. In general, the relevance of the deal making headlines has passed, and now the key uncertainties are how the new tariff structures will influence inflation, consumption, and growth. Investors in the U.S. rate market should shift further into a wait-and-see trading mode.

More compelling, at least in my opinion, is that the data has already demonstrated some pass-through of tariffs to consumer inflation, suggesting that the influence of the data should be on the upswing. Prevailing wisdom holds that we won’t have a complete picture of the tariff fallout for the real economy until this fall, making for the potential that this summer’s goods inflation is the new norm as opposed to a one-time price adjustment. There’s also an argument to be made that we’ve long since passed the peak of "trading the trade war." That’s certainly the case regarding the initial concerns that it would trigger a near-term global recession. Even the reflationary angst appears to have already peaked. Hopefully, the relevance of the topic will be exhausted in the next couple of weeks, or so I can only assume given the dynamics that have unfolded thus far.

Data released over the last week underscored the continued challenges facing home buyers and sellers as both new and existing home sales came in below market expectations. Heightened economic uncertainty and affordability issues due to both high prices and high interest rates weighed on sales and new construction. Existing homes sales declined to a ten-month low (3.93-million-unit annualized pace) while the average sale price climbed to $435,000. One bright side is that inventory has increased 15.5 percent over the last year as those who’ve purchased over the last two years erode the “lock-in” effect and a portion of owners relocate for various reasons. New home sales, which have been resilient over the last two years due to low resale supply, have started to soften. New home inventory rose to 511k units, which is the highest since September 2007. While the increase in inventory has been widespread across all geographies, the South has accounted for 44 percent and now has more new homes for sale than its pre-recession peak in August 2006. Anecdotally, chatter abounds about artificial intelligence taking jobs and tariffs tanking the economy is feeding into buyer indecision.

Tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting is expected to reveal that the Fed is content to retain its current wait-and-see stance despite the President’s ongoing pressure on Powell to lower rates, and a trade deal agreed to with the EU, the market will be wont for other tradable events this week. Well, wish granted: The timing of month-end has brought forward and condensed the auction schedule, meaning that our U.S. Treasury is in the market with $213 billion in total sales this week that are front loaded to get ahead of the Fed's rate decision tomorrow. Yesterday we saw $139 billion in two- and five-year notes and today we’ll see $74 billion in two-year floaters and seven-year notes (more on that in a second); All else being equal, we’d expect this to cheapen the front-end of the curve. Yesterday's two-year note auction met decent demand, but the five-year note sale was a bit worse, and both auctions saw below-average foreign demand. While further clarity on the trade war is encouraging for the forward economic outlook, the crosscurrents of risks facing the market over the course of this week may serve as an offset to aggressive bidding.

Today’s economic calendar kicks it up a notch with home prices, inventories, and JOLTS. We’ve already received advanced indicators for June: the goods trade deficit (-$86 billion), imports were -4.2 percent month over month, and retail inventories (+.3 percent). Later today brings Redbook same store sales for the week ending July 26, Case-Shiller and FHFA home prices for May, consumer confidence for July, JOLTS job openings, Dallas Fed Texas services, and Treasury activity that will be headlined by $44 billion seven-year notes (which rounds out July’s coupon supply series).

Trend-wise, investors have tended to pay up for new seven-year notes in the primary market in recent quarters. Here’s some inside baseball for you: Since the beginning of 2024, nearly 75 percent of auctions have stopped-through, and by an average of 1.0-basis point. It will be interesting to see if the apparent rotation from indirect to direct buyers in July’s coupon auction series is upheld today, even as it hasn’t appeared to be indicative of a shift in the domestic versus foreign breakdown within the investor class data. Earnings also continue from Wall Street. We begin Tuesday with Agency MBS prices slightly better than Monday’s close, the two-year yielding 3.90, and the 10-year yielding 4.38 after closing yesterday at 4.42 percent.

Ed and his wife moved to North Carolina several years ago to escape the heat in Texas.

He woke up yesterday and saw the headlines about the massive heat wave.

As Ed stepped out of the shower, he complained to his wife, saying, “It’s just too hot to wear any clothes on a day like this. What would the neighbors think if I mowed the lawn with no clothes.”

“That I married you only for your money.”

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)