9.12.25 Stagflation Fears; Polunsky Beitel Green's Peter Idziak on Trigger Leads; Long Bond Auction

The Chrisman Commentary Daily Mortgage News Podcast delivers timely insights for mortgage lenders, loan officers, capital markets professionals, and anyone curious about the mortgage and housing industry. Hosted by industry expert Robbie Chrisman, each weekday episode breaks down mortgage rates, lending news, housing market trends, capital markets activity, and regulatory updates with insightful analysis, expert perspectives, and conversations with top professionals from across the mortgage industry. Stay informed, gain actionable insights, and keep up with developments in mortgage banking and housing finance. Learn more at www.chrismancommentary.com.

In today’s episode, we go through the the poor combination of labor and inflation data from this week. Plus, Robbie sits down with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Peter Idziak for a discussion on takeaways from the bipartisan Home Buyers Privacy Protection Act (trigger leads bill), which amends the Fair Credit Reporting Act by shifting trigger leads to an opt-in system, mandates a study on text-based solicitations, and raises concerns about its impact on credit bureau revenue and market competition. And we close by looking at the demand at long-bond auctions over the past couple of days.

Sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions.

Transcript

“Rob, we’ve said ‘no’ to more expansion possibilities than ever before. Are you hearing other lenders doing deep dives on LOs and branches and also not seeing a profitable path?” Yes indeedy. Here in Jackson, MS, at the Mississippi Mortgage Banker’s Fall Conference, lenders are not only discussing expansion but also early payoff penalties and strategies to avoid them. (Of course, they are explaining to newer entrants why few investors would ever pay 102 or 104 for a loan that may pay off soon at 100.) One topic is why companies service, or sell service, and this month’s STRATMOR piece is titled, “Servicing: What’s All the Fuss About?” Another topic on lenders’ minds are demographics, income, and reasons for moving, and now we have government news that income inequality has dipped and fewer people moved, per the largest survey of U.S. life. Talk to any solid loan originator, and they’ll tell you that the top three attributes of their brethren are focus, leadership, and consistency. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Peter Idziak on takeaways from the bipartisan Home Buyers Privacy Protection Act (trigger leads bill), which amends the Fair Credit Reporting Act by shifting trigger leads to an opt-in system, mandates a study on text-based solicitations, and raises concerns about its impact on credit bureau revenue and market competition.)

Employment transitions

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Mutual of Omaha Mortgage is hiring! Those interested in joining a growing lender with a strong legacy are invited to explore career opportunities with Mutual of Omaha Mortgage.

Northpointe Bank is pleased to announce the addition of industry veteran David Bergstrom as Regional Vice President where he will spearhead the development of a new regional sales team, expanding Northpointe’s footprint, and reinforcing its commitment to innovative, client-focused mortgage solutions. With over 30 years of leadership experience, Bergstrom has held senior roles at several companies and is widely recognized for building high-performing teams, driving growth, and cultivating strong cultures rooted in accountability and operational excellence. “We are beyond excited to welcome Dave to Northpointe,” said Amy Butler, EVP of National Sales. “His proven track record and people-first leadership perfectly align with our mission and values.” In his new role, Bergstrom will focus on recruiting, managing, and growing top mortgage professionals and establishing a high-performance team dedicated to long-term client success.

Mortgage Investors Group (MIG), Tennessee’s #1 THDA and Knoxville lender, proudly announces the addition of Tonya Strobel as Chief Growth & Affiliated Partnerships Officer. Tonya brings over 36 years of mortgage leadership experience, including executive roles at national lenders where she built national joint ventures, grew retail teams across multiple states, and ensured profitability through challenging market cycles. Her appointment strengthens MIG’s momentum as the 35-year-old company continues to expand its reach, building on the recent hire of 30-year industry veteran Kristin Abouelata as National Sales Leader. With a reputation for forging game-changing partnerships and a deep commitment to Tennessee communities, Tonya’s leadership positions MIG for its next chapter of growth. For more information, please contact Anna Beltran, CEO/President.

Evergreen Home Loans™ continues its momentum by expanding into new states across the country, creating exciting opportunities for loan officers and branch managers nationwide. As more families seek reliable financing solutions, Evergreen stands out with its On Time and As Promised® commitment, ensuring transactions close smoothly and on schedule. With competitive loan programs, innovative technology, and strong operational support, Evergreen equips its associates to thrive in today’s evolving market. The company’s growth means more than opening branches, it means building relationships, strengthening communities, and offering loan officers the tools they need to achieve success. As Evergreen continues to grow, it’s seeking experienced professionals who want to be part of a lender that values people as much as performance. Join a culture where wins are celebrated, service is delivered with heart, and your career can flourish. Learn more about career opportunities here.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Services, software, and tools for lenders and brokers

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GridBase® is the Universal API for lender and title collaboration. Trusted as the leading order management solution, it stands out as the only system-agnostic API available. Our innovative technology empowers lenders to maintain a competitive edge and allows them to never leave their Loan Origination System (LOS) again. Experience the API that is revolutionizing teamwork in the title industry, facilitating efficient communication and streamlined processes for enhanced productivity and collaboration among all stakeholders.

Are fragmented processes and manual tasks holding your construction lending business back? Join Land Gorilla, with special guest ICE Mortgage Technology, for an exclusive webinar, "Solving the Digital Divide for Construction Loans," on September 18 at 11am PT. You'll discover how a seamless integration of Land Gorilla and Encompass® by ICE Mortgage Technology® can automate your construction loan operations and give you a powerful competitive edge. Unlock a digital-first approach for a more profitable construction lending business. Register to secure your spot today!

“Why Isn’t the Innovative Housing Showcase Making Bigger Waves? As our nation grapples with a housing crisis, it’s time to rethink what the American Dream looks like, and it doesn’t always mean a conventional property. The Innovative Housing Showcase in DC this week deserves far more attention. Events like this are critical for spotlighting alternative housing solutions that can reshape affordability and accessibility. One such solution is manufactured housing, a thriving sector championed by the Manufactured Housing Institute. At MortgageFlex, we’ve supported this space for over a decade, offering a true life-of-loan platform tailored to the unique needs of MH lending. We’re proud to welcome Common Sense Lending as our newest MH partner, the first to simultaneously implement our new cloud LOS, cloud servicing, and default solution. This marks a major milestone: the MortgageFlexOne platform is the first to unify all solutions on a single tech stack, powered by a common, normalized database. For more information, contact John McCrea.”

"Find me borrowers who are in the best position to refi their mortgage and remove PMI in Phoenix AZ." Model Match's Borrower Insights breaks down the walls, giving loan officers unprecedented access to our complete loan transaction database from 2017 forward. ​​​It's never been this easy and affordable to identify any borrower, in any market, and reveal deep intel like interest rate, equity position, home valuation, borrower contact information and real estate agent info completely on-demand. From reconnecting with past borrowers to building a fresh pipeline of new opportunities, Borrower Insights changes everything. Hundreds of Loan Officers are already leveraging AI to connect with ready to refinance borrowers in their market. Ready to transform your business? Model Match is the most affordable market intelligence platform starting at $29/month with a 14-day free trial. Start your free trial, and then jump on the Borrower Insights early access list here. 

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Wholesale & correspondent products

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“We’re knocking on the doorstep of fall. Cooler temps, crisp air, football, and conference season are here. And U.S. Bank is here for it all. We’re NOLA-bound October 4-7 for the NCSHA Annual Conference and Showplace where we will showcase our continued commitment to affordable housing via our treasured coast-to-coast HFA partnerships. Join us for a beignet by contacting a U. S. Bank HFA client sales executive today. Then we’re Vegas-bound for the 2025 MBA Annual Convention and Expo October 19-22 where comfortable shoes will win the day so lace them up and connect with a U. S. Bank account executive, today. Through our shared commitment to helping borrowers across the country with a frictionless mortgage process, we will empower sustainable homeownership. Let’s learn how we can do more, together, this fall.”

On a California porch, a retired couple sits surrounded by memories their home has brought them. But now, as expenses pile up, they’re unsure if they can help their children buy their first home and create memories of their own. You can help ease their minds. Finance of America’s HomeSafe Second gives homeowners a lump sum to cover expenses, so they can support the next generation of homeowners. Let’s see who in your database is eligible. The borrower must meet all loan obligations, including meeting all loan obligations under the first lien mortgage, living in the property as the principal residence, and paying property charges, including property taxes, fees, hazard insurance. The borrower must maintain the home. If the homeowner does not meet these loan obligations, then the loan will need to be repaid. Finance of America | NMLS #2285

Capital markets: The job market, not inflation, is the focus

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The Consumer Price Index for August came in slightly higher than expected at 0.4 percent month-over-month versus expectations of a 0.3 percent month-over-month increase and after a 0.2 percent month-over-month rise in July. Though the annual number increased (total CPI was up 2.9 percent year-over-year, versus 2.7 percent in July) to register in line with expectations, August’s reading is the highest since January. Core-CPI was 0.3 percent month-over-month, in line with expectations, while year-over-year core-CPI was unchanged at 3.1 percent, still well above the Fed's 2.0 percent inflation target, though that figure is specifically for PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation. Food prices rose drastically in August (0.5 percent), as did shelter (0.4 percent), and transportation services (1.0 percent). Your takeaway: the increase isn't enough to keep the Fed from cutting rates next week, and 50-basis points is still on the table, though unlikely.

There was also a sharp 27k jump in weekly jobless claims from 236k to 263k for the week ending September 6, lifting the series to its highest level since October 2021. It’s yet another weakening labor market signal, this time showing that employers are firing more workers than expected, as expectations were for a figure of around 235k. Continuing claims printed at 1.939 million for the week ending August 30, unchanged from the prior week. The figures reinforce labor market worries and the quickening drumbeat of worsening news on the economic front, from jobs, to manufacturing, and inflation. Your takeaway: October and December rate cuts are also squarely on the table.

The combination of reports (a weaker labor market and persistent inflation) had “stagflationary” implications with both presenting a stiffening headwind to growth. Accordingly, the 10-year Treasury note yield dipped to touch 4.00 percent, the long bond held around post-data highs into the early afternoon, while 2-year Treasuries briefly found 3.50 percent. 10-year Treasury notes have now dropped 27-basis points in yield in September alone while the 2s10s curve is 10-basis points flatter than just 11 days ago. Yes, we have seen longer duration mortgages that trade at a discount drop in rate, but coupons with ample liquidity haven’t followed suit, largely due to servicer recapture strategies. Your takeaway: it appears that a recession is yet to be fully priced in.

Yesterday's $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond reopening offered a barometer of the demand for duration at a moment when the long-end has proven to be a continuous underperformer on the curve. Though Wednesday's 10-year auction was remarkably well received, we received only a fair result at yesterday's supply event. The bid/cover ratio came in at 2.38x, just under the 2.42x average, reflecting steady demand. Non-dealer participation was solid at 90.0 percent, above average. Direct bidders were notably stronger than usual, taking 28.0 percent versus a 23.2 percent norm, while indirect bidders were awarded 62.0 percent, slightly below the average of 63.4 percent.

Heading into the auction, bonds were rallying on strong volumes, with 30-year yields approaching session lows; however, yields edged higher in the post-auction follow-through. Since 2017, 30-year auctions tailed 79 percent of the time when the preceding 10-year auction stopped-through by at least a basis point. A Fed focused on the employment mandate over inflation would put upward pressure on longer-dated securities, with long bond rates trading at some of the lowest levels since early May.

30-year mortgages don’t follow 30-year Treasury bonds, but mortgage rates (yet again) hit new year-to-date lows, and are the lowest since last October, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 11. The 30-year mortgage fell 15-basis points to 6.35 percent, and the 15-year rate slid 10 basis points to 5.50 percent, respectively. Those levels are at their respective lowest since 6.32 percent and 5.41 percent on October 4, 2024.

Both 30-year and 15-year rates remain higher by 15-basis points and 23-basis points from a year ago, just don’t tell your borrowers that! You should tell them that mortgage credit availability improved in the MBA’s Credit Availability Index in August, increasing 0.1 percent month-over-month. However it remains below the May reading, which was the highest since August 2022.

Preliminary September Michigan sentiment is today’s lone data point, but it probably won’t move rates. Of note, in the prior report, 1- and 5-year inflation expectations were 4.8 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. We begin Friday with Agency MBS prices a shade worse than Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.55, and the 10-year yielding 4.03 after closing yesterday at 4.01 percent.

(Thank you to Kris W. for this one.)

A man and woman had been married for more than 60 years. They had shared everything. They had talked about everything. They had kept no secrets from each other except that the little old woman had a shoe box in the top of her closet that she had cautioned her husband never to open or ask her about.

For all of these years, he had never thought about the box, but one day the little old woman got very sick, and the doctor said she would not recover.

In trying to sort out their affairs, she agreed that it was time that he should know what was in the box. The little old man took down the shoe box and took it to his wife's bedside. When he opened it, he found two crocheted dolls and a stack of money totaling $95,000.

He asked her about the contents.

“When we were to be married,” she answered, “my grandmother told me the secret of a happy marriage was to never argue. She told me that if I ever got angry with you, I should just keep quiet and crochet a doll.”

The little old man was so moved, he had to fight back tears. Only two precious dolls were in the box. She had only been angry with him two times in all those years of living and loving. He almost burst with happiness.

“Honey,” he said, “that explains the dolls, but what about all of this money? Where did it come from?”

“Oh,” she replied, “that's the money I made from selling the dolls."

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Servicing: What’s All the Fuss About?” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)