10.24.25 Affordability Check; Blue Sage's Carmine Cacciavillani on Partnerships; CPI as Hoped

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at the latest home affordability metrics and anecdotes. Plus, Robbie sits down with Blue Sage Solutions’ Carmine Cacciavillani for a discussion on modified workflows versus true artificial intelligence and how their partnership with Movement Mortgage is where the mortgage industry is headed. And we close by examining how the September CPI figures came in just as some people would have hoped, hmmm.

Today's podcast is brought to you by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products -- nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics -- unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. See how nCino can support a homeownership journey that your borrowers and your team will love at nCino.com.

Transcript

As shown in this video clip, don’t ever underestimate your opponent, or competitor. There were plenty of opponents and competitors (most friendly) at this week’s MBA Annual, and today on Last Word at 1PM ET, Brian Vieaux, Kevin Peranio, and Courtney Thompson discuss highlights from the conference, how the ongoing government shutdown could affect borrowers’ ability to pay and broader market stability, and what “shutdown economics” means for lenders, policymakers, and the housing industry heading into year-end. Affordability, or lack thereof, has been a major topic for the last few years, what with rising insurance costs, HOA fees, rates in the 6’s, and increasing property taxes. FHFA Director Bill Pulte announced a review of loan-level price adjustments, which are created by looking at the historical performance of loans with certain attributes, to potentially reduce fees for homeowners and buyers. The review could impact conventional mortgage fees, offering relief amid past controversies over fee structures. Anything helps, right? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's three core products nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics, unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into a seamless end-to-end solution embedded with data-driven insights and intelligent automation. Hear an interview with Blue Sage Solutions’ Carmine Cacciavillani on modified workflows versus true artificial intelligence and how their partnership with Movement Mortgage is where the mortgage industry is headed.)

Employment, recruiting, personnel moves

_________________________________________________

Simmons Bank’s Mortgage Warehouse Lending (Warehouse Lending, Simmons Bank) continues strong in its fifteenth year of relationship banking. In that spirit, Simmons Bank is pleased to announce Jodie Cochran has joined as National Sales and Production Manager. She will be responsible for client management, department marketing and training, and will be instrumental in shaping the platform’s future expansion. “Jodie brings an exceptional depth of expertise and leadership to our mortgage and warehouse lending business,” said David Frase, President of Simmons Bank’s Warehouse Division. “Her nearly 25 years of experience combined with her industry recognition, make Jodie a tremendous asset as we continue to expand our offerings and client relationships.” We provide a tailored approach to mortgage finance with a keen understanding of both delegated and non-delegated lending. Please contact us for more information on how we can assist with your growth trajectory in our current mortgage landscape!

“Don’t Be the Nail: If you’ve been hunted by recruiters, you know the pattern: bait-and-switch calls, the hard sell, and being pushed toward one outcome: their company. That’s not representation, that’s pressure. To a hammer, everything looks like a nail. But you’re not a nail. You’re a pro who deserves better. That’s why I work as an agent, not a recruiter. Independent, aligned, focused on your goals. No quotas. No corporate master. Just advocacy. That’s the difference between another bad recruiter story and a career move that actually works. Agent > Recruiter. ZTalent.org.”

CMG Home Loans is keeping the momentum strong with another standout hire. Scott Cummins, a 20-year mortgage veteran and proven leader, has joined as Sales Manager, bringing trusted teammates Stephanie Sills and Adam Chambers along with him. Known for his “Unreasonable Hospitality” approach and customer-first mindset, Scott has built his reputation on creating meaningful relationships and delivering exceptional client experiences. Throughout his career, he’s been recognized by Scotsman Guide, Five Star Professional, and honored as TDHCA Lender of the Quarter for West Texas. After 17 years with Cornerstone Home Lending, Scott is excited to bring his expertise, integrity, and passion for service to CMG, helping expand the company’s growing presence across Texas while empowering loan officers to reach new heights. Read the full press release here. Want to join a team that’s growing with purpose? Explore opportunities here.

“At Evergreen Home Loans™, we know that even the best loan officers need the right tools to stand out. That’s why we provide marketing resources that help our associates win in competitive markets. From professionally designed flyers and polished presentations to social media graphics, customizable campaigns, and email templates in Total Expert, Evergreen marketing goes beyond the basics. Our team supports you with the kind of material that builds your brand, drives engagement, and keeps you in front of your clients and partners. We invest in your success by making sure you never have to go it alone. You’ll have everything you need to look sharp, sound confident, and deliver messages that convert. If you’re ready to stop chasing leads and start attracting them with powerful marketing at your fingertips, Evergreen is ready for you. See how we can help you grow at discoverehl.com. Contact: Todd Miles, EVP of Production Growth.”

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Services, products, software, and tools for lenders and brokers

_________________________________________________

This isn’t CLICKBAIT — it’s Real Talk. On October 29, Finance of America is hosting Real Talk: Reverse Mortgages Are the Future, a free live webinar designed to challenge the misconceptions about reverse mortgages. The truth is simple. They're just a home equity loan with a few unique features. Hear directly from our field experts as they explain why this product has worked for so many homeowners and why brokers across the country are adding it to their lineup. With $13.95 trillion in senior home equity available, the opportunity is too big to ignore. Click here to register today. For business and professional use only. Not for consumer distribution. Finance of America | NMLS #2285.

Western Alliance Bank's Specialized Mortgage Services Group will be attending MBA’s Accounting and Financial Management Conference, November 19-21, at the JW Marriott Phoenix Desert Ridge. Mark Short, national sales manager of mortgage warehouse lending said: “We’re thrilled the MBA has chosen Phoenix, the home city of Western Alliance’s headquarters, to host this conference for the second year in a row. Whether you’re a current client or you’ve heard about Western Alliance Bank and want to learn more, we’d very much welcome the opportunity to meet in person. Our whole team would like to express our gratitude to Marina Walsh and Fran Mordi of the Mortgage Bankers Association for their hard work and dedication to the industry. See you in Phoenix!” Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC. 

“Worried about switching property tax service providers? LERETA makes onboarding fast, thorough, and disruption-free. We kick off implementation within 48 hours of signing, map your business rules in as little as a day, resolve missed loans, and set up 100% of your tax lines, quickly and accurately. With rapid, on-site implementation and no-cost MSP IP installation or Sagent integration, your team is up and running fast, often less than three months. And with no upgrade or transfer fees, ever, you get a seamless transition without the headaches. Ready for a smoother switch? Learn more here.”

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

In-person events to wrap up 2025 and head into 2026

_________________________________________________

Every conference has an LTV ratio: the percent of “Lenders to Vendors.” Cutting edge mortgage stats aside, a good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here for in-person events in the future; and organizers can post their event!

CE Fest Southern California is coming to Irvine on Thursday, October 30th. Teaming with MaxClass, the nation’s leading live CE provider, you’ll experience a full-day, high-energy continuing education class combined with exclusive vendor networking. Whether you need to finish your electives or complete all 8 hours, this is the event built for busy originators like you.

Industry veteran Alan Fowler, CMB, Director of Client Success at Garris Horn, LLP, is offering a last-minute version of his popular in-person NMLS 8-Hour CE classes in Oklahoma City on October 30. The class is offered in conjunction with Mortgage Bankers Association - Oklahoma City. To register or get more details, email Alan here.

The Texas Women Mortgage Bankers will host their annual fall event on November 3rd at the Cathedral in Austin, Texas, bringing together professionals from across the industry for an evening of connection and inspiration. The Texas Women Mortgage Bankers was founded in 2019 as a sub-set of the Texas MBA and has grown since its inception by over 80 percent, highlighting the clear importance of this community. For this event, The TWMB is honored to welcome Faith Schwartz, Founder and CEO of Housing Finance Strategies, as its guest speaker. Faith will lead a thoughtful conversation on “There Are Enough Seats at the Table,” a message about leadership, inclusion, and elevating the next generation of voices in mortgage banking. TWMB events are known for their authentic energy and sense of community, and this year’s gathering promises to be no exception. Registration is open.

The next day, Tuesday, November 4, the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association is partnering with the Lyndon B. Johnson Foundation to co-host a housing summit at the LBJ Library (in the Lady Bird Johnson Auditorium), in honor of the “60th Anniversary of the Housing and Urban Development Act.” From mortgage bankers to home builders, we are bringing the country’s brightest thought-leaders to Austin for a full-day of discussions around the future of housing in the United States. Register here, and/or email info@texasmba.org if you need assistance with your MyTMBA login)

STRATMOR Group’s Consumer Direct Workshop is back, live in Charlotte, NC, November 5–6. Designed specifically for lending executives in the Consumer Direct channel, this workshop goes beyond theory with peer-to-peer discussions, benchmarking, and practical strategies you can implement right away. Learn from peers and STRATMOR experts about what’s working now in sales execution, comp structures, marketing channel allocation, technology adoption, and more. The format is interactive, candid, and collaborative, a rare opportunity to learn directly from industry peers and STRATMOR experts. Registration is open now, and seats are limited. Learn more and secure your spot here.

If CRA tickles your fancy, the CRA & Fair Lending Colloquium is November 16-19 in Los Angeles, California. “Join us for the 29th CRA & Fair Lending Colloquium, the ultimate event for compliance professionals and regulators.”

On November 19th the Mortgage Bankers Association of St. Louis will have a fine luncheon with a discussion of industry trends.

November 19-21, in Phoenix, Arizona, the MBA is having its Accounting and Financial Management Conference, the premier annual gathering for accountants and financial managers in single-family and commercial/multifamily real estate finance.

On November 20th, the Mortgage Bankers Association of Kansas City will have its annual BBQ/Thanksgiving event! Watch for sign-ups.

The MBA is putting on the Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference on Amelia Island, Florida February 2-4. “An intimate gathering designed exclusively for IMB leaders from companies of all sizes and business models.”

The Optimal Blue Summit is taking place February 23 – 25 at Talking Stick Resort and Conference Center in Scottsdale, Arizona. From expert-led sessions and hands-on tech showcases to curated networking with capital markets leaders, every element of the Summit is designed to give attendees a competitive edge and help them maximize profitability. Early bird registration is available for just $199. Secure your ticket today and be first to experience an event where proven mortgage expertise meets modern innovation to shape what's next.

OPSCON 2026, launching under NAMMBA, is the only conference built specifically for underwriting and operations professionals in the mortgage industry. In Dallas, Irvine, and Orlando, the event delivers 1.5 days of high-impact keynotes, interactive breakout sessions, and live technology demonstrations. The agenda focuses on operational excellence, workflow automation, compliance, and leadership strategies. Designed to bring together leaders, innovators, and practitioners, O PSCON 2026 is where mortgage operations teams connect, collaborate, and shape the future of efficiency in housing finance.

Registration for ICE Experience 2026 is now open for ICE clients, and we can’t wait to see you in Las Vegas! Join thousands of mortgage professionals for three days of learning, networking and innovation at the Wynn Las Vegas, March 16–18, 2026. Register now to take advantage of the lowest rates of the year: super early bird pricing is just $995, and if you bring a team of four or more, the rate drops to $745 per person. This year features a new format for pre-conference training with smaller classes and more hands-on learning, plus four focused session tracks designed around ICE solutions and the same high-quality networking events you love. ICE Experience is where ideas spark, connections grow and innovation happens here. Secure your spot today and be part of the event that’s shaping the future of the mortgage industry. Register now.

Capital markets: will CPI data change Fed rate cut next week?

_________________________________________________

Since we can’t seem to have any discussions without the mention of “AI” anymore, I asked the computers that be, what in market trading parlance would the opposite of a “dead cat bounce,” which is a brief, false recovery during a larger downtrend. It replied that it would be something like a “bear trap,” which we saw yesterday.

Why? Well, there was a generally positive showing from global equities and a sharp rally in the price of oil after the U.S. Treasury sanctioned two major Russian energy companies. Additionally, it was announced that President Trump will meet with Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi on Tuesday and China's President Xi next Thursday, both positive developments for global trade (potentially).

We also learned yesterday that U.S. existing-home sales rose 1.5 percent in September to an annual rate of 4.06 million, their highest level since February. while inventory grew slightly to 1.55 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Year-over-year, sales were up 4.1 percent and the median home price increased 2.1 percent to $415,200, marking the 27th straight month of price gains.

While rates may ease slightly as the Fed cuts interest rates, they’re expected to stay around 6.2 percent to 6.4 percent over the next two years, likely keeping many homeowners from selling and capping further housing market recovery. Mortgage rates fell to new or near YTD lows in the latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey: For the week ending October 23, the 30- and 15-year mortgage rates both fell 8-basis points to 6.19 percent and 5.44 percent, with the former the lowest since last October and the latter just 3-basis points off the YTD low. From a year ago, rates are 35-basis points and 27-basis points lower.

We’re just a couple of days away from the Fed’s next meeting, and next week’s expected quarter-point Fed rate cut will be viewed as dovish or hawkish largely depending on the September CPI report. While two more 25-basis point cuts are widely anticipated, a stronger-than-expected core CPI could prompt the Fed to pause rate reductions early next year, though a modest upside surprise would still align with continued easing. Persistent inflation in core services could limit how low rates ultimately go in 2026, despite market expectations for a 3 percent bottom. For now, uncertainty (exacerbated by the potential for a prolonged government shutdown and limited new economic data) supports a more dovish stance, as investors and policymakers remain cautious about committing to major moves amid an uneven post-shock recovery and fading economic resilience.

Today’s economic calendar started with that aforementioned, and previously delayed, September CPI report. The headline (+.3 percent, +3.0 percent year-over-year) versus expectations it would increase 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.0 percent year-over-year versus 0.4 percent and 2.9 percent previously, with the core (+.2 percent) versus expectations of increasing 0.3 percent month-over-month, but 3.0 percent year-over-year versus +3.1 percent expected, same as in August. Later today brings preliminary October S&P Global PMIs, final October Michigan sentiment, and though no Fed speakers are scheduled, the Fed will hold an open meeting to discuss the proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Fed’s stress testing framework and scenarios. Earnings also continue from Wall Street. After the consumer price data, Agency MBS prices are slightly improved from Thursday’s close, the 2-year is yielding 3.45, and the 10-year yielding is 3.97 after closing yesterday at 3.99 percent.

I went to the cemetery yesterday to lay some flowers on a grave.

As I was standing there, I noticed 4 grave diggers walking around with a coffin. Three hours later and they’re still walking around with it.

I thought to myself, they’ve lost the plot!!

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Rates Drop, Pipelines Pop: Don’t Let Fulfillment Flop.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

qoɹ

(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2025 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)