1.26.26 Rent Versus Own; Middle Housing Partner's Jared Jones on Building; Refinance Activity

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

In today’s episode, we look at some trends seen across the mortgage industry as well as what is on the economic calendar this week. Plus, Robbie sits down with Middle Housing Partner's Jared Jones for a discussion on how housing policy actually becomes delivered homes, and how permitting workflows and local regulatory interpretation shape real-world project feasibility. And we close by looking at the refinance activity index.

Thank you to Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage.

Transcript

“I am getting so sick of millennials and their attitude. Always walkin’ around like they rent the place.” When thinking about things like politics or housing, or many things, there’s the adage, “Follow the money.” For example, did you know that Ozempic was created thanks to research on Gila monsters, the only venomous lizard in the US? Their venom slows digestion and curbs cravings for hours. Ozempic, as it turns out, is not manufactured in the U.S. but is made by Novo Nordisk, a Danish pharmaceutical company specializing in diabetes and obesity care. Denmark is also the owner of Greenland. Mess with Greenland and see what happens to your Ozempic? What about where and how we live? Here is a nifty chart on the U.S. population by age group. The newest LendingTree report shows U.S. homeowners with a mortgage now pay 37 percent more per month than renters, underscoring how sharply monthly housing costs have climbed. Don’t look for lower mortgage rates: Despite President Trump demanding lower rates, not much is happening there, and the Fed’s interest rate decision midweek is expected to be the macro centerpiece, with investors parsing Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the timing and pace of future easing. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Middle Housing Partner's Jared Jones on how housing policy actually becomes delivered homes, and how permitting workflows and local regulatory interpretation shape real-world project feasibility.)

Employment

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On Wednesday, January 28th, at 3pm est/2cst join Fairway Home Mortgage for an inside look at its Reverse products, platforms, training, and coaching. You’ll hear directly from David Lazowski, President of Growth, and Dan Ventura, President of Reverse, along with other top execs. Learn how Fairway equips you with everything you need to grow your business and close more deals: The support you need with the independence you love. January Reverse Fairway Day registration link.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for brokers and lenders

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New detailed analysis on borrower retention suggests that recapture performance varies far more by execution than by market conditions. An analysis of lenders with $100M+ in annual loan volume and 10+ loan officers shows retention rates ranging from under 10% to more than 70%. Banks and credit unions consistently outperform other models, while most IMBs cluster in the 20–40% range, indicating borrower loss is systemic rather than isolated. A small group of lenders across all channels break out by maintaining consistent, borrower-relevant engagement after closing. RETR recently published a detailed breakdown of retention winners and losers by cohort, including insights from executives at top-performing institutions on how they stay connected with past borrowers. Lenders interested in understanding where they stand and how retention can be improved can learn more at www.LoanLossReport.com or contact sales@retr.app.

Approve loans faster, with confidence, Gateless Smart Underwrite®! Built for modern lending, our AI-driven platform transforms the underwriting process by reading and understanding borrower documents, verifying credit & assets against trusted sources, calculating income, and clearing conditions automatically. No more bottlenecks. No more stare and compare. No rekeying of data. Smart Underwrite helps deliver accurate, consistent decisions in hours, not weeks, so lenders can approve more loans, reduce risk, and give borrowers a smoother, faster path to “yes.” Scale your operation BEFORE you need to and future proof your business! This is underwriting without the wait. See it in action: book your demo today. 

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Company-sponsored webinars and podcasts in coming weeks

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What does the future hold for servicers? Join LoanCare on February 5 at 2 p.m. ET for an insight-packed webinar that tackles today’s servicing realities head-on. This one-hour live event, “2026 Servicing Outlook: What's Coming Next?” features blue-chip panelists Kyle Enright, President, Achieve; Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist, MBA; Gwen Muse-Evans, President, GME Enterprises; Dave Vida, CRO, LoanCare and Dave Worrall, President, LoanCare. This session will explore how economic headwinds, rising regulatory complexity and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the servicing landscape. Hear what leading organizations are doing differently and walk away with insights that will inform your decisions in 2026. Reserve your seat today and stay ahead of what’s next in mortgage servicing.

When a mortgage operation starts to feel like a cluttered garage, productivity slows, focus disappears, and nothing runs smoothly. That’s where KeyBank found itself, and what it decided to fix. On a recent The Spotlight: Backstage podcast episode hosted by Dark Matter Technologies’ Craig Rebmann, Dale Baker, President and Head of Mortgage and Consumer Lending, walks you through how his team cleared out “hobby” products, streamlined a bloated rate sheet, and rebuilt underwriting workflows to keep deals moving in the consumer bank using best practices from mortgage. The payoff: a 14-page rate sheet cut to four pages and the highest application volume in the bank’s history. If you’re staring at complexity and wondering what actually moves the needle, this conversation offers a blueprint worth studying.

Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the way people everywhere do business, and mortgage servicing is no exception. While AI solutions continue to emerge with a promise to streamline operations, we're just starting to understand the potential positive impact on servicers and borrowers. In the latest episode of the Fintech Hunting Podcast, Trina Forbess, senior director of servicing product strategy at ICE Mortgage Technology, talks with host Michael Hammond on how applying AI to support borrower interactions can enhance customer service and streamline operational workflows. Listen to the podcast to understand the real-world application of AI in mortgage servicing and how ICE’s innovations are driving improved call handling times and building stronger borrower relationships.

For lender executives still sorting through the growing number of “AI powered” mortgage technology solutions, an on-demand webinar may be worth a listen. The Executive’s Guide to Evaluating AI in Mortgage Technology features Brooke Anderson-Tompkins, Founder and CEO of Bridge AIvisory, in conversation with Patrick O’Brien, CEO of LenderLogix, for a practical discussion on how leaders can evaluate AI beyond marketing claims. The session covers how to think about transparency, accountability, data usage, and long-term risk and value, without needing to be AI experts. The full webinar recording is now available on demand for those looking to cut through the AI noise and ask better questions when evaluating technology. Access the recording here.

Optimal Blue’s Hedging 101 webinar is back by popular demand. Hosted by Jim Glennon (Senior Vice President, Hedging & Trading Operations) and Brad Eskridge (Team Lead Capital Markets Solutions Specialists). Whether you’re considering a transition to mandatory or you’re already hedging, you won’t want to miss this engaging webinar, Tuesday, January 27, 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM PST.

Help your borrowers create a home that fits their lifestyle. Join Fannie Mae on January 28, 1:00–2:00 p.m. ET for a live webinar exploring recent enhancements to HomeStyle® Renovation and the all new HomeStyle® Refresh, making financing home improvements, renovations, and repairs simple, flexible, and affordable.

Credit unions are well-positioned to serve their communities but identifying where to focus mortgage lending efforts is not always clear using traditional market data alone. Join ACUMA on February 3, 2:00 pm - 3:00 for an Inside Track Webinar, sponsored by iEmergent, featuring a practical and repeatable playbook built for credit union mortgage leaders focused on responsible growth and community impact.

In 2026, cyber risk isn’t just an IT issue, it’s a business survival issue. AI-driven attacks are bypassing traditional defenses in minutes, not days. On Wednesday, February 4th, 1 CT | 2 EST., join Kevin Robinson, Head of Commonwealth Group Cybersecurity, for a webinar about how AI is making phishing more realistic and harder to detect, what new state, federal, and global regulations mean for U.S. businesses, and how strong security becomes a competitive advantage, not a cost.

As the mortgage industry evolves, servicers face a different landscape than what many predicted. From underwhelming rate movement to evolving regulations and market consolidation, the servicing playbook is being rewritten. Join LoanCare for a one-hour webinar on February 5, at 11:00 AM, to hear from a panel of leaders (an originator, servicer, regulatory expert, and industry economist) who will examine what to expect in 2026 and how outcomes will shape, or reshape, servicing. 

During October Research’s Countdown to Compliance series, attendees asked for a step-by-step look at the new Real Estate Report and on Feb. 5, the Countdown to Compliance: A Demo of FinCEN’s Real Estate Report webinar we’re delivering. This practical walkthrough helps title and settlement professionals build confidence ahead of the March 1 reporting deadline, with Florida Agency Network President Amy Gregory and FincenRealEstateReport.com CEO Charles Wismer guiding you through the form, explaining how it is structured, what information will be required and what to expect when reporting begins. Ample time for Q&A ensures you leave with clarity and preparedness as the new compliance requirements take effect.

As part of the Foundation Fridays broker education series, join Foundation Mortgage Corp. on February 6 at 2 PM ET for Turning Challenges into Closings: Non-QM Opportunities in Today’s Market. Featuring Sam Bjelac, Alexander Inda, and Joseph Inda, this session is built for brokers navigating tighter underwriting and more complex borrower profiles. The team will walk through real-world case studies, highlight high-demand programs such as DSCR, Bank Statement, and Foreign National loans, and share practical, compliance-friendly talking points you can use immediately. Designed for today’s market, this webinar shows how to turn stalled files into funded deals using a common-sense approach.

Capital markets: flight to quality = gold & silver, not bonds

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Gold has moved about $5,000 per ounce, silver above $100 an ounce, as the dollar has sunk to levels not seen since September. Technical factors, political headline risk, and fresh uncertainty around Fed leadership have all kept volatility and uncertainty elevated even as yields remain range-bound for now. It was a relatively uneventful close to the week last week, with ongoing foreign demand appearing to cushion Treasuries even as concerns about U.S. deficits and de-dollarization linger. While recent data has pressured the front end of the yield curve by trimming rate-cut expectations, signs of household strain and ongoing manufacturing weakness could support some dip-buying in the case of Treasuries. 

Recent economic data continues to show consumer resilience, with spending increasing 0.3 percent in both October and November. Spending gains were evenly split between goods and services as consumption patterns normalized, but income growth lagged. Inflation cooled to 0.2 percent in October and November but is expected to reaccelerate in December, ending 2025 near a 3 percent annualized pace. At the same time, cracks in the consumer backdrop are becoming more visible, with the personal saving rate falling to multi-year lows and real disposable income growth slowing, raising doubts about consumption’s ability to carry growth into 2026. 

ICE Mortgage Technology’s December 2025 First Look report shows that lower interest rates reignited refinance activity, pushing mortgage prepayments close to 3.5-year highs, while credit performance sent mixed signals across the market. Early-stage delinquencies improved meaningfully, with the national delinquency rate falling to 3.68 percent, below both last year’s level and pre-pandemic benchmarks, but late-stage delinquencies climbed to near multi-year highs, signaling growing stress among a smaller subset of borrowers. At the same time, foreclosure activity continued to rise, driven largely by FHA and VA loans, with foreclosure starts, inventory, and sales all posting sizable year-over-year increases, underscoring a widening divergence between improving near-term borrower performance and mounting pressure in the government-insured segment.

This week’s highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s press conference following the latest FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon. Odds of greater than 50 percent for a cut are not seen until the June meeting, so the Fed this week is expected to keep rates steady while maintaining a data dependency regarding future actions. I say Powell’s press conference will be the highlight because it will be interesting to hear his reaction to recent attacks on the Fed (and it’s a dull slate of economic data this week). Prior to the Fed, the Bank of Canada and Sweden’s Riksbank will be out with their latest rate decisions; both are expected to keep rates on hold. Data this week is of the lower tier variety including Fed surveys, housing data, consumer confidence, and Chicago PMI. A government shutdown could occur again at the end of the week should a funding agreement not be reached. 

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with the previously delayed Chicago Fed National Activity Index and durable goods orders, both for November… old news. Later today brings Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing for January, and Treasury activity that will be headlined by $69 billion 2-year notes. Earnings also continue from Wall Street. It’s Monday morning of a full 5-day workweek and we start with Agency MBS prices better than Friday afternoon by about .125, the 2-year yielding 3.59, and the 10-year yielding 4.21 after closing last week at 4.24 percent.

(Thank you to Gayle Z. for this one.)

Two priests decided they needed a break from the cold in Detroit, so they booked a vacation to sunny Florida. Wanting to fully relax and go incognito, they made a pact: no collars, no black suits, nothing that screams "clergy."

As soon as they landed, they hit a local shop and stocked up on the wildest tourist gear they could find: think neon shirts, loud floral shorts, flip-flops, oversized sunglasses, and straw hats. They looked like walking Florida postcards.

The next morning, they strolled down to the beach, drinks in hand, soaking up the sun and enjoying the freedom of anonymity.

That’s when a gorgeous blonde in a tiny bikini walked by, gave them a sweet smile, and said,

“Good morning, Father. Good morning, Father.”

She nodded at each of them and kept walking, calm as can be.

The priests stared at each other, stunned. How did she know?!

Determined to be unrecognizable, they doubled down. The next day, they returned to the store and bought even wilder outfits: mismatched patterns, tourist hats with dangling beads, socks with sandals… the works.

Feeling completely undercover, they headed back to the beach, confident no one would suspect a thing.

Right on cue, the same blonde appeared — this time in an even skimpier bikini. She walked right up, smiled again, and said, “Good morning, Father. Good morning, Father.”

One of the priests jumped up.

“Alright, young lady. We give up. Yes, we’re priests. But how on earth did you know?”

She laughed, leaned in, and replied, “Oh, come on, Father. It’s me, Sister Angela!”

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Helping Borrowers in a Market Defined by Complexity and Change.” The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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