4.10.26 Mailbag Friday; CIC Credit’s Don Clement on Scoring Models; CPI Hot Hot Hot

In today’s episode, we go through the latest mailbag questions hitting my inbox. Plus, Robbie sits down with CIC Credit’s Don Clement for a discussion on how changing regulations, credit scoring models, and data strategies are reshaping borrower acquisition, risk assessment, and cost management. And we close by looking at the latest CPI figures and how transitory they are.

Thank you to JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs.

The Chrisman Commentary is your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

Transcript

Let’s take a look at the mail bag. “Rob, with the war in the Middle East pushing gas prices higher, and transportation costs impacting everything, are you seeing a shift in what lender sales managers are telling their staff?” Absolutely. We are constantly reminded that interest rates are out of our control, and lenders are focusing on how to grow in a tough market, and training and encouraging MLOs to use the tools they have to help borrowers and “play the long game.” Having humans involved in a home purchase is important. And stay away from saying things like, “The underwriter is making me…” You’re part of a team. “Rob, AI is all the rage. Are different channels rolling AI out or using it in different ways?” Yes, and STRATMOR’s Sue Woodard and Garth Graham are seeing it as well. They noted that independent mortgage banks are quicker and faster. One could say that they’re not afraid of failing fast. Any vendor offering AI-related products should make a point of presenting a “tangible use case” and provide actual examples of what a product does and how it can help a lender. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with CIC Credit’s Don Clement on how changing regulations, credit scoring models, and data strategies are reshaping borrower acquisition, risk assessment, and cost management.)

Employment

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“Evergreen Home Loans™ is proud to celebrate Crystal Adair, VP of Loan Fulfillment, as one of National Mortgage Professional’s 2026 Women of Inspiration. This recognition reflects the strength of our leadership and the culture we are building every day as we continue to expand across the country. With over 25 years of experience in mortgage operations, Adair leads by empowering her team and exemplifies how the strongest leaders create space for others to think, grow, and succeed. At Evergreen, we invest in our people, support growth, and create opportunities to make a real impact for homebuyers. If you are looking for a place where your work matters and your career can thrive alongside inspiring leaders, then visit discoverehl.com or contact Todd Miles, EVP of Production Growth.”

Click n’ Close is seeking a Consumer Direct Manager to lead a high-performing call center sales team and its supporting operations. This hands-on role is responsible for driving production, improving conversion, and ensuring a seamless borrower experience. Responsibilities include recruiting, onboarding and coaching loan officers, processors, and support staff; managing inbound/outbound lead flow; improving speed-to-lead, contact rates and pull-through; overseeing the full loan lifecycle; aligning sales and operations for efficient execution; tracking KPIs; and maintaining compliance with company policies and mortgage regulations. Candidates should bring 5-10+ years of mortgage lending experience, including experience in a consumer direct or call center environment, along with strong sales leadership, pipeline management, and coaching skills. In operation since 1959, Click n’ Close has built a strong reputation for stability, innovation, and tech-forward mortgage lending. If you’re ready to join a company built for what’s next, click here to learn more and apply.

The Chrisman Job Board is the go-to platform for employment opportunities across the mortgage industry. For employers, adding a job listing is easy. Simply create an account and drop in your existing application link, or forward the details to our team and we’ll take care of it for you. For job seekers, joining our Talent Community is completely free. Upload your resume to be visible to hiring companies across the industry and stay connected to new opportunities as they go live.

Products, services, and software for brokers and lenders

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Yesterday this Commentary mentioned a guide titled, “AI in the Workplace: Acceptable Use Policies, Data Risk, and the Discovery Trap.” Many wrote for the piece, which is now posted on the internet!

Spring EQ (NMLS# 1464945) is hosting a webinar next week (Tuesday, April 14 at 2:00 p.m. ET) to help brokers capitalize on today’s home equity opportunity. With homeowners sitting on near-record levels of equity, including $34 trillion in total U.S. home equity, an average of $295,000 per homeowner, and 50% holding first mortgage rates under 4%, the market is primed for growth. In Why Home Equity? Why Now? Unlocking Opportunities in Today’s Market, attendees will gain insights into current trends and strategies to turn today’s conditions into new business. The opportunity is already translating into results, with Spring EQ partners earning an average of $3,574 per loan in 2025. Register today! Visit EMMA to price, process, and manage your loans today. Not a partner? Join here: Wholesale or Correspondent.

New cash-specified payups from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now live. Vice Capital Markets clients can already incorporate both into their execution strategies. With new low loan balance categories and expanded commitment grids for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, lenders now have more precise pricing options across both agencies. Acting quickly on these updates can make a meaningful difference in best execution and secondary market performance. Vice Capital ensures clients are ready on day one. Through ViceEx, lenders can seamlessly integrate new agency payups, compare executions and refine delivery strategies without disruption. In a market where timing and precision matter, immediate access to both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae updates helps lenders stay competitive and capture new opportunities as they emerge. See how Vice Capital helps lenders optimize execution strategy at ViceCapitalMarkets.com.

Lenders that still think UAD 3.6 is “just an appraisal update,” should think again … and take action now. UAD 3.6 is a fundamental shift in how appraisal data is structured, delivered, and reviewed, and it’s going to expose inefficiencies you may have been working around for years. “The way we’ve always done it” won’t translate cleanly into a more data-driven environment. When volume returns, those gaps will show up quickly in longer turn times, heavier pipelines and missed opportunities. The good news? There’s still time to prepare. Forward-thinking lenders are already auditing workflows, setting expectations internally and getting comfortable with a more flexible approach to appraisal review. Class Valuation helps lenders get ahead of the transition with practical guidance, webinars, and links to GSE resources. Explore Class Valuation’s UAD 3.6 resource center here.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

Who knew credit could be so… controversial?

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As noted in yesterday’s Commentary, rumors swirl of the FHFA, overseer of Freddie and Fannie, “operationalizing” VantageScore any day now via a press conference scheduled, then cancelled/postponed. Rumors are also swirling of lenders already registered for testing, and the industry hopes for a logical and extensive testing of VantageScore results versus FICO Score 10T. Speaking of which…

FICO points out that, “Momentum continues to build around FICO Score 10T, and as Julie May highlighted in a recent MBA Newslink article, the industry is moving from interest to action. Through FICO Score 10T Adopter Program, launched at the end of 2024, lenders already accessing FICO Score Classic for non-GSE loans are being offered FICO 10T at no additional charge, creating a true side-by-side evaluation environment.

“With more than 50 lenders participating, the program removes cost as a barrier and allows institutions to directly assess how trended credit data enhances risk precision, supports expanded access to credit, and informs smarter lending decisions across the lifecycle. It’s a pragmatic approach: put the most predictive model in lenders’ hands, let the data speak, and give the market confidence before broader adoption. Contact Devin Norales’s team.”

Trends for LOs to watch in order to best help clients

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Matt Schulz observed that the most important shift in housing right now is not rates or inventory, it is that buying no longer clearly beats renting and that changes borrower behavior in ways the industry has not fully absorbed. When owning costs materially more each month, the decision becomes analytical, not aspirational, which extends renter timelines, compresses first-time buyer demand, and reshapes where volume shows up geographically. This feels different from past cycles because the pressure is not cyclical alone, it is structural, tied to taxes, insurance, and supply constraints. For lenders, the implication is clear: demand is becoming more conditional, more mobile, and more selective. That recalibration is already underway in how borrowers think.

Travis Hodges of Viu has some thoughts on affordability. Namely, the real affordability squeeze is no longer just rates, it is the parts of the payment lenders still treat as someone else’s problem. As insurance premiums and escrow volatility accelerate, lenders are facing a structural decision: continue optimizing the loan in isolation or take ownership of the full cost of homeownership. What feels different now is that fragmentation is no longer just inefficient, it is distorting borrower decisions and eroding trust after closing. Embedding insurance is not a feature discussion, it is a shift in accountability and experience design that could redefine where value sits in the transaction. The implications are bigger than they appear at first glance.

Capital markets: prepayments impact supply & demand

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The vast majority of FHA & VA loans (mostly originated by IMBs) are placed into Ginnie Mae securities. Ginnie Mae's mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio outstanding grew to $2.909 trillion as of February 2026. In addition, Ginnie Mae issued $39 billion in total MBS, resulting in net portfolio growth of $4.5 billion. Ginnie Mae facilitated the pooling and securitization of more than 101,000 loans for first-time homebuyers year to date. Key highlights from the February issuance include $38.4 billion in Ginnie Mae II MBS, $1.1 billion in Ginnie Mae I MBS (including $1 billion for multifamily housing loans), and the pooling and securitization of loans for more than 113,000 American households, including over 43,000 first-time homebuyers.

Some days, there is a lot of hullabaloo and volatility, just for bonds to end the day where they began; yesterday was one of those days due to the fluid nature of the Iran conflict. Renewed worries that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire might not hold due to Israel's continued attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon pushed prices in one direction at one point, while reports that Israel will start negotiations with Lebanon pulled in the other subsequently. The ongoing focus on the conflict overshadowed the release of a Personal Income/Outlays report for February, which showed an unexpected drop in Personal Income (-0.1 percent month-over-month when it was expected to register 0.5 percent) and a slight deceleration in the Core PCE Price Index to 3.0 percent year-over-year from 3.1 percent previously. Crude oil settled near $100/bbl. The day's $22 billion 30-yr bond reopening was met with decent, but unimpressive demand. 

March’s prepayment report showed a sharp but likely short-lived acceleration, with Fannie Mae 30-year speeds jumping 22 percent month-over-month to 11.0 CPR (the fastest since April 2022) and running 67 percent above year-ago levels, aided in part by a longer day count and lingering refinance momentum. However, that strength is already under pressure as rising mortgage rates have sharply reduced borrower refinance incentive and seasonal trends turn less favorable heading into spring, pointing to slower speeds ahead.

Beneath the surface, performance continues to be heavily shaped by servicer behavior, with firms like Freedom Mortgage and Union Home driving faster prepayments across multiple coupon and loan-age segments, while others such as Citigroup, Carrington, and Bank of America lag, highlighting how operational strategy (not just borrower characteristics) remains a key determinant of MBS performance. While gains were broad across coupon stacks and especially strong in certain lower and mid coupons, and even faster in Ginnie Mae securities, the outlook is turning more cautious: seasonal factors, diminished rate incentive, and slowing refi demand are expected to push speeds modestly lower in the near term, underscoring how sensitive mortgage behavior remains to even small shifts in interest rates.

Does the CPI (Consumer Price Index) matter less than usual since the war pushed inflation higher in March? Today’s economic calendar kicked off with March CPI (+.9 percent, the highest in four years; +3.3 percent y-o-y) versus 0.7 percent expectations and a prior reading of 0.3 percent, and Core CPI (+.2 percent, +2.6 percent y-o-y) versus 0.3 percent expectations (from a rise in airfare) and a prior reading of 0.2 percent. The report is perhaps “transitory” if a perceived resolution is in the works to bring oil prices back down. However, the measure reveals just how much inflation is working its way into the consumer psyche, and ultimately, demand destruction. Future reports should reveal the contagion of cost increases driven by the spike in oil prices.

Later today brings February Factory Orders, preliminary April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the March Treasury Budget. After the CPI came in about as expected, Agency MBS prices are roughly unchanged from Thursday’s close, the 2-year yielding 3.76, and the 10-year is yielding 4.28 after closing yesterday at 4.29 percent.

(Thank you to Terry R. for this one.)

Charlie's wife, Lucy, had been after him for several weeks to paint the seat on their commode. Finally, he got around to doing it while Lucy was out.

After finishing, he left to take care of another matter before she returned.

She came in and undressed to take a shower. Before getting in the shower, she sat on the commode.

As she tried to stand up, she realized that the not-quite-dry epoxy paint had glued her to the commode seat.

About that time, Charlie got home and realized her predicament. They both pushed and pulled without any success whatsoever.

Finally, in desperation, Charlie undid the commode seat bolts. Lucy wrapped a sheet around herself, and Charlie drove her to the hospital’s emergency room.

The ER doctor got her into a position where he could study how to free her. Lucy tried to lighten the embarrassment of it all by saying, "Well, Doctor, I'll bet you've never seen anything like this before."

The doctor replied, "Actually, I've seen lots of them. I just never saw one 'mounted and framed' before."

Visit www.ChrismanCommentary.com for more information on our industry partners, access archived commentaries, or subscribe to the Daily Mortgage News and Commentary. You can also explore the Chrisman Marketplace, a centralized hub connecting mortgage professionals with trusted vendors and solutions. If you’re interested, check out my periodic blog on the STRATMOR Group website. This month’s piece is titled, “Mortgage Rates Are Not Random.”  The Commentary’s podcast is available on all major platforms, including Apple and Spotify.

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(Market data provided in partnership with MBS Live. For free job postings and to view candidate resumes, visit the Chrisman Job Board. This newsletter is intended for sophisticated mortgage professionals only. There are no paid endorsements by me. For the latest mortgage news, visit Mortgage News Daily. For archived commentaries, or to subscribe, go to www.ChrismanCommentary.com. Copyright 2026 Chrisman LLC. All rights reserved. Paid job & product listings do appear. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Rob Chrisman. The views and opinions in this newsletter are mine alone unless otherwise specifically stated herein.)