6.3.26 Pulte Promotion; Experian’s Sophia Cheung on Verifications; MBS Performance

Today's episode includes reaction to FHFA Director Bill Pulte being named the acting director of national intelligence. Plus, Robbie sits down for an interview with Experian’s Sophia Cheung on simplifying and modernizing the verification process by consolidating multiple systems into a single platform, further streamlining workflows and increasing value. The episode closes with a look at MBS volume and performance across the month of May.

Thank you to Experian Verify, a comprehensive income and employment verification solution for mortgage lenders. By uniting instant payroll data, permissioned access, and research verification in one seamless experience, Experian Verify helps lenders reduce friction, accelerate decisions, and confidently verify every U.S. worker.

The Chrisman Commentary is your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

Transcript

Who says that you have to have the latest & greatest? What about… balsa wood airplanes? The same company has had no competition and has been manufacturing them in Massachusetts for 100 years! The latest and greatest with FHFA Director Bill Pulte (happy 38th birthday last week!) is that President Trump tapped him (more below), to be the acting director of national intelligence. At this point he is still running Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The President cited Pulte’s work at the FHFA and his role as chair of Fannie & Freddie, saying Pulte “has deep experience managing the most sensitive matters in America, the safety and soundness of the Markets, and over 10 trillion dollars at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, a substantial increase from where it was just 12 months ago.” For now, our industry and consumers wait on F&F to make a firm decision and move forward with “credit modernization” (aka credit score wars). VantageScore, FICO Direct, tri-merge, and single score models all have their proponents and opponents. Meanwhile, the number of lenders charging borrowers up-front for credit costs continues to limp along, meaning that the company eats the costs for loans that don’t actually fund. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian and the Experian Verify Hub. The platform brings manual submissions in-house and consolidates post-submission activities into a single environment, aiming to provide more streamlined access, faster insights, and a more cohesive user experience. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Sophia Cheung on simplifying and modernizing the verification process by consolidating multiple systems into a single platform, further streamlining workflows, and increasing value.)

Capital Markets: Agency stock prices continue to fall

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Fannie slipped nearly 6 percent in price and Freddie dropped over 5 percent on Tuesday (both have tumbled more than 30 percent this year) after Director Pulte was named acting director of national intelligence, but I digress. April JOLTS data surprised to the upside yesterday, with job openings rising to their highest level in almost two years and the job openings-to-unemployed ratio moving back above 1.0 for the first time since mid-2025, signaling renewed firmness in labor demand. Layoffs remained low, despite spiking energy costs tied to the US-Israel war with Iran. While hiring and quits rates softened modestly, and all key labor market indicators stayed within their recent ranges, suggesting stabilization rather than deterioration. Your takeaway? It reinforced the view that the Fed can remain patient on policy, which prompted a modest selloff in front-end Treasuries as markets further embraced a neutral rates outlook ahead of today’s ADP and upcoming payrolls data.

Over the past several sessions, the 10-year Treasury yield has repeatedly tested the 4.45 percent level, a technically significant area that previously acted as resistance during the selloff and is now functioning as support. Despite multiple attempts, yields have yet to decisively break below that threshold, suggesting buyers remain reluctant to extend the rally without a stronger catalyst. From a technical perspective, a confirmed close below 4.45 percent would be needed to signal a meaningful shift in momentum rather than another failed test of support. Simultaneously, the Relative Strength Index has moved back (read: normalized) into neutral territory after reaching oversold conditions when yields approached 4.70 percent, suggesting much of the near-term downside in yields has already been realized, leaving the market with ample room to retrace higher if incoming data or geopolitical developments challenge the recent rally.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA, which declined 2.5 percent during the holiday-shortened week as both purchase and refinance demand eased modestly from the prior week. Refinance applications are up 20 percent year-over-year, and purchase activity is running 7 percent above year-earlier levels, evidence that housing demand remains resilient even in this higher-rate environment.

Ahead of Friday’s May payrolls report, we’ve also received May ADP Employment (private sector employment increased by 122,000 jobs in May and annual pay was up 4.4 percent versus 110k expectations and 109k previously). Later today brings Final May S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, April Factory Orders, May ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, and the Fed's Beige Book, which is expected to highlight a widening gap between spending by affluent households and middle- and lower-income households (the “K-shaped economy”) as higher energy prices squeeze the cost of living. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices worse about .125 from Tuesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 4.07, and the 10-year yielding 4.48 after closing yesterday at 4.45 percent.

I've just finished reading a book about the world's greatest basement . . . It was a best cellar.

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