Ford plus Carney equals more housing across Ontario?

Joining us on tonight’s Closer Look podcast is Aidan Chamandy, a reporter at TorontoToday who covered Monday's announcement by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Premier Doug Ford and Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow.

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SPEAKER_02 0:00

He said, Oh, I hope I don't turn myself into a liberal if I drink this.

SPEAKER_01 0:02

This isn't gonna turn me into a liberal, is it?

SPEAKER_02 0:05

And then off camera, um, there was a very funny quit from a reporter at the star saying, I think it's too late.

SPEAKER_01 0:10

I've already been accused of being a liberal. Okay, sir. Well, they they do accuse me. But anyways, here we go. Sorry, folks.

SPEAKER_04 0:48

A lot of S's, yeah. It is a lot of S's.

SPEAKER_03 0:50

I know. It's like full of things. Like a clothespin is right here. That's what it sounds like. Trevor Burrus, Jr. You haven't infected the rest of us yet, so that's good. Not yet. I wipe all the surfaces down, spray, we are safe in here. I should wear a mask to tomorrow's tomorrow's episode. You'd probably find a couple of N95s around here.

SPEAKER_04 1:07

I'm sure you could. Did anybody even come in here during the pandemic? That was before my time.

SPEAKER_03 1:11

Was anyone in the office? I think at one point when we uh started coming back, there was four or five of us in here. And it's like we each had our own wing of the building. You know, you you you you'd be yelling to you know talk to somebody. Trevor Burrus, Jr.: All right, I don't want to talk about the pandemic.

SPEAKER_04 1:25

Let's not move on. Did you see that headline, the headlines yesterday about the bread class action settlement? Yes. And people are getting scammed. Of course they are. There's a nine or ten people, the Canadian Anti-Fraud Center, friend of the show, confirmed that it was uh that it was uh people were victimized by this. Jay Strasberg, who was on the show back in the day, he's the lead lawyer in the class action lawsuit, was uh warning people hey, this is there it's actually closed, and you can't sign up for the settlement anymore. But if you did sign up, if you listen to our show and you did sign up, apparently the payments could start coming as soon as next month. Wow. Whether it's fifty bucks or a gift card, I don't know how it's gonna work. We'll find out. But if you took the time to put in your email, it's too late now, so if you didn't do it, too bad. All right. But it could be fifty bucks. A lot of bread. You can get your slice of the settlements.

unknown 2:14

Oh my God.

SPEAKER_03 2:15

Okay, let's uh segue to tonight's uh program. Uh the Prime Minister and uh Premier Ford spending some quality time together yesterday in Toronto.

SPEAKER_04 2:24

Yes, announcing billions more in funding to help. They even shared a beverage. Yeah, to help build houses and share a glass of water. You know, I've kind of lost track on on the housing announcements. There's just so many, right? And and you know, everyone has a different idea of what how we get the housing crisis under control and build more houses. But the one thing is for certain, in Ontario especially, housing starts are way down. There's a lot of a lot less housing being built. Uh the Prime Minister and the Premier uh announced uh almost $9 billion in funding to help kickstart it. Uh and the best guy to help us understand all the ins and outs is Aiden Shamandi. He's one of our reporters at Toronto Today, covers City Hall. He was at the announcement. And this guy understands as beat as anyone as well as anyone in the country. So I'm excited to hear uh his take on everything.

SPEAKER_03 3:09

Governments don't usually agree on housing policy this easily or this quickly. But yesterday, Prime Minister Mark Kearney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford stood side by side to announce billions in new spending aimed at one thing. Getting more homes built at the center of it is a significant cut to development charges. A move they say will unlock stalled projects and get construction moving again alongside tax relief for buyers and new commitments on transit. It's a sweeping plan and an ambitious one, but it also raises some fundamental questions about who pays for growth and whether this is enough to meaningfully change the pace of building. Aidan Chamandy from Toronto Today was at the announcement, and he joins us tonight from Toronto. Aiden, welcome back to the show. Always good to see you. Thanks for having me again, fellas. All right, uh Aiden, 8.8 billion. It's a big number. Uh, is this a genuine turning point for housing supply or more of a uh short-term stimulus to unfreeze the market?

SPEAKER_02 4:09

It genuinely could be long-term if the dollar figure grows and if the timeline on which funds are committed is sustained, because right now it is it is definitely geared towards a kind of short-term let's get the market, particularly the condo market, unfrozen in the GTA, which you know is the kind of locus of Canada's housing crisis. Um, and I will just note that the federal and provincial governments have put up $8.8 billion, but it's still up to the cities to then cut their development charges to then get that money backfilled. So it's not like, oh, today the development charges are cut. There still needs to be work done at the city level to kind of realize these changes.

SPEAKER_04 4:55

That's such a controversial term that we hear in all of our communities across Ontario that we cover development charges. Can you just give us a background for people who are listening have no idea what that is or why it's so impactful to the cost of housing?

SPEAKER_02 5:05

Yeah. So basically development charges are taxes charged on home building. The idea is that a developer will, you know, fund growth-related infrastructure, such as transit, uh, new roads, parks, recreation facilities. But these charges have been in place for decades and they've really grown to encompass things that might not necessarily the average person count as like growth-related infrastructure. And the kind of central premise is that you're shifting the tax burden off of the property tax base on to new growth. But people who pay existing property taxes also benefit from things like new fire halls, new transit line, better roads. But it is it, I mean, cities don't have a lot of tools to raise revenue. Raising property taxes is really controversial. Property taxes don't scale with the economy like sales taxes do at the provincial level. So this really was a way for municipalities to be like, we don't have to charge our existing voters more property taxes to pay for this, like various forms of infrastructure and services. We can shift that burden on to home builders. And the result, you know, decades later we have seen is that these are a significant burden on home building and we get a lot less homes built.

SPEAKER_04 6:24

Yes. And is it is it my right, Eden, that what happens is they get charged these development charges and they just pass those on to the consumer who's buying the house, it just raises the val the cost of the house?

SPEAKER_02 6:33

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's basically like it's an input cost in the same way that labor construction materials are. It raises the floor for which a developer can profitably sell a home.

SPEAKER_04 6:42

And it's controversial because of some of our communities, I think Burlington's one, where the city council's voted to lower development charge, and it's extremely controversial. Not everyone agrees with it. That's happening in a lot of communities right now.

SPEAKER_02 6:53

Yeah, it's really become a talking point, especially since uh, like, you know, coming out like before the pandemic, but really coming out of the pandemic when the uh when the provincial government came out with this big housing affordability task force, um, you know, that really got a lot of people kind of zoned in on development charges. And there was a really, really controversial bill um uh from the province in 2022 that that uh slashed the uh ability of municipalities to charge uh development charges. And there was like a two, a two-year, you know, five alarm fire. And then uh in 2024, the province was tired of taking flack on this and they completely reversed it. Um just one quick note on what Burlington did, which I think is profoundly interesting and is not something that I have seen replicated at any other municipality really across Ontario, um, is like, you know, development charges, it doesn't come out the the fee doesn't come out of nowhere. It's like, okay, you know, we have X, Y, and Z new infrastructure project. Uh, you know, we're gonna attach, you know, uh a $10 fee to project Y, $20 fee to Project X kind of thing. And then they come up with an overall figure. But what Burlington did was they went through their kind of study of all of the new infrastructure projects that they want to push forward and say, okay, this one has been on our books for 30 years. There's no way we can build it on our own. We need federal and provincial funding. The feds in the province have never said they're gonna fund it, but we just slapped it on here and have been charging uh developers for this for God knows how long. So the mayor said, these projects that aren't likely to ever get built, we're gonna take them out. And so it, you know, it it created a sustain a sus substantial reduction in development charges. And if that's a process that's replicated across Ontario, because there are a ton of these phantom projects in every city, then that that is something that could see a substantial reduction. But that's kind of a side note.

SPEAKER_04 8:47

That's a great space. For the record, we find you profoundly interesting, which is why we have you on the show all the time because because you know what you're talking about. Explain it is fascinating. And because so basically, this $8.8 billion plan is going to say we're not gonna let the developers won't have to pay that fee. We're gonna pay that fee and make up the difference.

SPEAKER_02 9:04

Yeah, because I mean, again, it gets back to the question of municipalities have an incredibly limited amount of tools to raise revenue. Sales taxes, income taxes grow with the economy. So the federal government doesn't need to raise taxes to raise more revenue because, you know, through inflation and people making more, they get more tax revenue. Doesn't happen with property taxes. It's a static figure.

SPEAKER_03 9:26

Aiden, there is a uh HST relief component uh as well. Can you speak to that for us?

SPEAKER_02 9:30

Yeah, so that has been something that has kind of been that's been an iterative process at both the federal and provincial level for a long time. Uh you know, HST 13% charged on home building. There was a proposal I I can't remember how long ago, but it's basically started at, you know, new new homes for first-time home buyers under 1 million. And that's like, well, how many new homes are there under 1 million? You know, first-time home buyers is not a lot of people. So it's just been the federal, the federal government and the province have kind of been engaging in like a tit for tat where if you take your portion of the HST off for a slightly expanded pool of buyers, we will take our portion off. And so it's gotten to the point now where I can't remember the exact figures, but total HST, so all the federal and provincial is taken off for homes, I believe under one million. Uh, doesn't matter if you're a first-time home buyer or not. And then it kind of like scales up uh the like the the rebate is lower as you get to like 1.5 million. I believe it caps out at 1.85 million.

SPEAKER_04 10:27

I I think uh underneath all this that that's going on is we keep hearing about how we're just not building enough houses, especially in Ontario. At least that's what I keep hearing, keep reading. How bad is it, Aiden? Where what were we supposed to be at and where are we?

SPEAKER_02 10:39

Uh well, I mean, supposed to be at is kind of like a one of those kind of like let the market decide thing, right? It's like, you know, if you have X amount of people, uh, you should, I guess, have X amount of homes depending on family formation. Um, but uh to put a figure on the number of homes that were short is like, I mean, it got hundreds of thousands. Yeah. Hundreds of thousands. It actually has gotten better since the um uh immigration cuts to federal level because immigration was obviously uh a huge kind of demand side pressure that came in uh really since you know 2015 and accelerating during the pandemic when when we saw record levels of immigration growth. Um, but the the sign I would say of kind of a healthy market isn't necessarily how many homes are there relative to people. It's kind of what are homes and rents priced out relative to people's incomes. The general figure is about 30% of someone's income. So if your rent or your mortgage is not kind of taking up an exorbitant amount of your monthly take-home pay, I would say I would consider that a healthy market.

SPEAKER_04 11:37

Because that's where I think some people who don't understand all the issues and all the things at play here, they wonder, well, we keep hearing about how there's so many empty condos, for example, in Toronto, yet we're helping to fund the development of more construction. Uh how do you drive, how does that all that drive?

SPEAKER_02 11:52

Well, yeah, I mean, like the the kind of main reason that there are all these unsold condos is getting back to that, you know, there's a floor at which developers can sell for because land costs a lot, labor costs a lot, uh, materials, construction, all that stuff, and then development charges and like these kind of like planning application fees that you have to go through to get your housing project approved. Let's say that sets a floor of like $800,000. Like that's what it actually costs to build a home. A developer can't take a hit on that because it's a business. Businesses are, you know, they're not charities, right? So if a developer cannot sell a unit for a profit and no one is in a financial position or wants to buy, you know, a house for uh a price that would earn the developer a profit, then we're not going to get anywhere. Developers can't get financing to build new stuff. Uh, no one moves, freeing up new units, and yeah, people just really can't afford it.

SPEAKER_03 12:46

Aiden, there's also a three-year window on some of these measures. Is that enough time to meaningfully boost supply given how long some of these projects take to get built?

SPEAKER_02 12:56

Um so this is the there's a particularly interesting thing here that I want to note about kind of before getting into the larger conversation about this. So, you know, Toronto is the epicenter of Ontario's housing crisis in the same way that Vancouver is the epicenter of BC's housing crisis. And there's this phenomenon called drive till you qualify. So, you know, the vast majority of people want to live in Toronto, want to work in Toronto because it's the economic engine, but they keep moving further and further out until they can afford rent or qualify for a mortgage. And so Toronto is essentially exporting its housing crisis out into further and further reaches of Ontario, which is why we see places like St. Thomas, Ontario have rents for like over $1,000, which no offense to St. Thomas, Ontario, but it's like that's a rural area. Why are rents you know exorbitantly high relative to incomes? And so for the Toronto specific uh issue in this three-year window, is there's a construction moratorium uh in the downtown core, which is the most in-demand area during the FIFA World Cup. So this is a really important construction season when really important measures are being put forward. And we're not exactly going to be able to build as much as we can because FIFA, you know, the the FIFA, the soccer body, demands, oh, you know, we need to have this pristine city uh when the World Cup is on and you know, you can't do other kind of city-building activities. I would say, on the general point, given how far we are behind in terms of uh the housing supply meeting the demand that there is, three years will probably not be enough. Uh, I mean, you know, housing affordability has been a top concern for people in Toronto, Ontario, Canada for like what, 10 years now? You're not really going to solve it in three years. There's only so much construction capacity in the city, in the province, in the country. And if this does really stimulate supply, you will end up likely kind of getting to a cap where every construction worker in the province is already working on a housing thing. So even if we uh even if we have a lot of capital flowing around, if there aren't, you know, hammers to strike the nails, then houses aren't going to get built. It's a fascinating screen. That's an ideal scenario.

SPEAKER_04 15:01

Yeah, yeah. It's fascinating. I appreciate all your insight on this, Aiden. Let's get to the more important news of the day, which is this drinking water incident with uh Doug Ford and Mark Carney. This has gone viral, obviously. Tell us what happened and what you saw being right in the front row.

SPEAKER_02 15:16

Cheers. Yeah, cheers, guys. Cheers, guys. Yeah. What's in that?

SPEAKER_04 15:19

What's in that glass?

SPEAKER_02 15:21

Uh this is uh uh 20 proof 20-proof water. Uh so you know, um Doug Ford's uh skill as a retail politician in front of a microphone, kind of like uh I guess knows no equal. Um, and he has a great relationship with the prime minister, has a great, like, truly great relationship with the mayor of Toronto, Olivia Chow, despite you know, some some choice comments during the mayoral by-election when I think he called her a crazy communist or like, you know, God help Toronto uh if she gets elected. But he's he's really effective at having good interpersonal relationships. And so there's been uh a kind of like meme going around for, I don't know, like five years that you know Doug Ford isn't really a conservative because he, you know, he he essentially operates like a liberal. Um and I guess some of those comments have gotten to him to an extent. So he took a sip of water uh from the podium that Carney was at previously, said, Oh, I hope I don't turn myself into a liberal if I drink this.

SPEAKER_01 16:24

Almost drank your water. Did you have a sip of the water? Okay, I'll take a sip. This isn't gonna turn me into a liberal, is it? I've already been accused of being a liberal. Okay, so they do accuse me. But anyways, here we go. Sorry, folks.

SPEAKER_02 16:46

And then off camera, um, there was a very funny quip from a reporter at the star saying, I think it's too late. Uh so that got the uh that got the kind of uh associated uh press gaggle, uh you know, howling. And uh it didn't seem to distract anyone uh at the podium, but um because you know there are professionals in front of the camera and we are professionals behind the camera. Um, but yeah, that was uh a good moment of levity in uh uh in what otherwise was a fairly weighty press conference, just in terms of like not weighty in terms of emotional weight, but oh my god, there's so much here, and this is like a truly consequential policy announcement.

SPEAKER_04 17:22

That's a great story, thank you. Last question for me, Aiden, is about the Toronto Island Airport, which we've talked about before on this show. Uh the prime minister was asked about it. What was what did he say?

SPEAKER_02 17:31

He said uh it's a very interesting vision and there are lots of big possibilities there. Um so the federal government, the old federal liberals under Trudeau, when this was kind of like last a big issue in 2015, said uh, yeah, we're not there was there's a proposal to expand the airport. They said, hell no, we're not doing that. Uh, and it's you know, it was seen as a um a policy promise that helped deliver them some of the key downtown ridings in Toronto, eventually, you know, ushering in a majority. Uh, but now it seems that times have changed, uh, at least a little bit. The federal government is being quite um, they are equivocating on their answers on this one. Uh, they are a part of the tripartite agreement that governs the operations of the airport. They would need to sign off on anything. We know where the province stands on this, we know where the city stands on this, even though that doesn't really matter anymore. Uh, but the feds are kind of saying, well, you know, we're engaging in a negotiation. We don't want to make premature discussions. We want the voices of our residents in those downtown ridings to be heard. And the kind of direct political calculus going on right now is that there are two uh very consequential by-elections uh in downtown Toronto, or one in like downtown Toronto and one a little bit east in Scarborough, but on the water. So that downtown, that Scarborough East riding is directly in the flight path. The downtown riding is uh traditionally uh the residents there are a little bit more kind of opposed to the airport because the island is kind of seen as like, oh, condo dwellers, it's a good place to have your backyard. So uh I can imagine that once these by-elections are wrapped, and uh if the Liberals win them, then we will see a little bit more of a uh concrete statement coming from the federal government about their intentions for this going forward.

SPEAKER_03 19:13

All right, good stuff. Uh anything else to add, uh Aiden before we let you go, other than you potentially throwing your uh name into the ring for the now vacant uh GM uh leaf position?

SPEAKER_02 19:22

I I I jump I jump for joy. I thought that was fake when I saw it last night. I was so happy. I was so happy. Oh my god, my group chats were blowing up, got on the phone with my dad, like they did it, they did it.

SPEAKER_04 19:35

Well, here in the here in the six here in the Sioux, we're kind of giggling about it because of course you guys fired Kyle Dubis, uh hometown boy here in the Sioux, and everybody thought, well, I don't know if that was the right move, so I don't know. Maybe they they shouldn't have got rid of him.

SPEAKER_02 19:45

Hey, look, I'm a I'm a Kyle Dubis fan. I I appreciate his legacy with the Sioux Greyhounds and his penchant for uh drafting and signing uh you know former Sioux Greyhounds players. It actually seems to work in a lot of uh a lot of cases. Indeed.

SPEAKER_03 20:00

Um and we had brighter days under him, so all right. Good stuff. Uh Aiden Shimandy from Toronto today. Uh always good to see you, Aiden. Thanks for this. Thanks, guys. You know, the good thing about our setup, we never mix up our glasses. That's right. We were really hard for you to reach over and accidentally drinking.

SPEAKER_04 20:19

It would be so rude, too, too. And we won't tell everyone what we would turn into if we drank each other's cups. Politically speaking, what would happen. Let us know what you think we'd turn into. That's right. We'd love to hear it. Closer look. You know, the uh the uh see now I forget my train of thought because I'm all I'm always losing my mind on what's going on. But oh the HST the HST changes, right? Yes. I always love these big announcements. You wonder about the guy who just finished building a house and now they've announced his full HST rebate. It's a lot of money. It is a lot of money. And uh they're gonna might try to get it retroactively, but it's not gonna work. It is not the only thing that works retroactively is scrapping the FOI legislation. That works retroactively.

SPEAKER_03 20:55

Still shocking that that's still shocking. More to come. More to come. Look forward to that. All right, closerlook at villagemedia.ca. Reach out anytime. We'd love to hear from you. And check us out online at closerlookpodcast.ca. That is our time for this evening. Tonight show produced by Zach Tronzo. For Michael Frisco, your editor-in-chief, I'm Scott Sexmith. Thanks for your time. Let's do it again tomorrow night. 7 o'clock, right here on Closer Look.

SPEAKER_00 21:19

Briscoe in Scott's wardrobe, provided in part by Moore's Clothing for Men.