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Zhang Financial Podcast
Every week, Rob McDougall, CFA®, MBA will guide you through the weekly market outlook and provide insights into financial planning. Tune into each episode for key financial updates. For more information, please visit ZhangFinancial.com.
Episodes
202 episodes
Good News is Bad News | Market Outlook: 09/08/26
Nonfarm payroll data released last week far exceeded expectations; the 162,000 jobs added topped the 58,000 expectation by a substantial margin. However, this cautioned investors as it raised the expectations of an interest rate hike at the Fed...
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Interest Rate Hike Odds Increase | Market Outlook: 08/31/26
After hearing from Chair Kevin Warsh, investors are increasingly pricing in the chance of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's meeting in September. There is now only a 12% probability of no rate hikes, and an 88% chance of at least o...
US Treasury Doubles Long-Term Buybacks | Market Outlook: 08/24/26
Economic releases were minimal last week and thus had little market impact. The US Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-term obligations to stabilize yields. As a result, funds migrated to Gold and Bitcoin, which rose 4.5% and 22.4%, r...
Stocks Rise, But Consumer Spending Lulls | Market Outlook : 08/17/26
Inflation metrics met expectations in data released last week, while consumer spending pulled back during July: expectations of +0.1% month-over-month were met with a reality of -0.6%. However, markets rose, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.4% o...
Jobs Miss But Earnings Exceed Expectations | Market Outlook: 08/10/26
Nonfarm payrolls were expected to come in at +91,000 for July, but ended up at -23,000. Earnings season continues, with the majority of S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 results, and those reporting have beaten expectations by almost 11%...
Fed Holds Rates Steady | Market Outlook : 08/03/26
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, holding them at the target range of 3.5%-3.75%. Q2 GDP growth came in at +1.5%; the Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting a much larger figure for Q3 at 5% growth. Markets had a strong week, with the S...
Nobody Is Talking About Rate Cuts | Market Outlook: 07/27/26
Inflation expectations rose last week, largely driven by oil prices due to renewed activity in Iran. The Federal Reserve meets this week, and there is a 36% chance of an interest rate hike. US markets fell slightly (-0.6%), dragged down by the ...
Expectations Rise, Semiconductors Fall | Market Outlook : 07/20/26
Inflation metrics and consumer sentiment both came in better than expected last week, and the Atlanta Fed raised its Q2 GDP estimate. However, Chinese companies announced new AI models, which dragged down semiconductor stocks in the US and abro...
Odds of Interest Rate Hike Continue to Rise | Market Outlook: 07/13/26
Economic data releases were rather light last week, but initial jobless claims slightly beat expectations. The Federal Reserve meets in a few weeks, and odds for some form of interest rate increase by year-end continue to climb. The "Magnificen...
Markets Rise but Rate Hikes Loom | Market Outlook : 07/06/26
The S&P 500 rose 1.2% last week as the Magnificent 7 rebounded. International developed holds a slight edge in YTD performance at +11% compared to the S&P's +10%. Emerging markets, however, still outshine both at +24% YTD. The Federal R...
Market Returns Broaden Away From Magnificent 7 | Market Outlook : 06/30/26
Multiple economic data points came in better than expected, including initial jobless claims, personal income, and personal spending. Despite this positivity, markets were negative last week, particularly in the growth and large cap sectors. Th...
US Markets Top International YTD | Market Outlook : 06/22/26
The Atlanta Federal Reserve decreased its Q2 GDP forecast from 3.3% back down to 3%. The Fed kept rates steady at its June meeting, but markets are pricing in a 42% probability of a hike in July and a 90% probability of at least one hike by the...
Market Breadth Driving YTD Returns | Market Outlook : 06/12/26
The Atlanta Federal Reserve increased its Q2 GDP forecast from 3% to 3.3%, and the FOMC will meet next week for the first time under new Chair Kevin Warsh. No interest rate movement is expected. The S&P crept up 0.15% this week, despite the...
Economic Data Too Good | Market Outlook : 06/08/26
Better-than-anticipated economic numbers came out last week, led by non-farm payrolls nearly doubling expectations (+172,000 actual vs. +96,000 expected). This led markets to price in a lower chance of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rate...
Mixed Economic Data, Markets Rise | Market Outlook : 06/01/26
Economic indicators were mixed last week, with PCE coming in better than expected while initial jobless claims and personal income fared worse than anticipated. Still, the S&P 500 rose 1.44% as growth outperformed value. Additionally, inter...
Markets Rise on Hopes for Iran War End | Market Outlook : 05/26/26
Anticipation for a potential end to the war in Iran caused inflation expectations to drop, and the Atlanta Fed raised it Q2 GDP forecast from +4% to +4.3%. Interest rate hikes, rather than cuts, are expected by the end of the year; however, no ...
Tone Shifts on Interest Rates as Inflation Heats Up | Market Outlook : 05/18/26
A few weeks ago, markets were anticipating an 80% chance of no interest rate changes for the rest of 2026. That has since dropped to 49%, paired with a 39% probability of one rate hike due to higher-than-expected inflation. US markets remained ...
Jobs and Earnings Impress, Markets Rise | Market Outlook : 05/11/26
Non-farm payrolls landed at 115,000, exceeding the predicted 73,000. 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, and 84% of those have beaten expectations. Moreover, the average outperformance is 18.2%; this caused the index to rise...
GDP Exceeds Expectations, Stocks Finish Strong April | Market Outlook : 05/04/26
Q1 GDP grew at 2%, beating expectations of 1.3%. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is expecting a strong Q2 as well, projecting 3.5% growth. Interest rates remained unchanged, with markets pricing in a 77% probability of no rate movement through the ...
Stocks Bounce Back as Iran Fears Wane | Market Outlook : 04/20/26
Slower-than-expected PPI data and a robust start to the earnings season, where 88% of companies have beaten estimates, pushed the S&P 500 up 4.55% last week. Markets are pricing in a 51% probability of no rate changes this year, and the Atl...
Stocks Rise, Inflation Viewed as Temporary | Market Outlook : 04/13/26
In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob details last week's release of economic data, with all eyes on inflation. The 10-year inflation expectation sits at 2.36%, showing markets are viewing the Iran War's impact on energy prices, an...
Market Stops 4-Week Losing Streak | Market Outlook : 04/06/26
In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob recaps a week of better-than-expected economic data, from new jobless claims to unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve currently projects Q1 GDP growth at 1.6%, and a rate cut at its April meet...
Economic Data Stabilizes as Rate Expectations Shift | Market Outlook : 03/30/26
In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob highlights shifting rate expectations and continued market pressure amid the ongoing conflict in Iran. Inflation expectations declined while Q1 GDP expectations were revised to 2.0%. The Fed is...
Economic Data Mixed as Middle East War Continues | Market Outlook : 03/16/26
In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob outlines a week of mixed economic data. Initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected, but Q4 GDP was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Markets fell, largely driven by the ongoing ...
Markets Fall Amid War Escalation | Market Outlook : 03/09/26
In this week's Zhang Financial market outlook, Rob covers the prior week's economic and geopolitical news. Inflation expectations climbed as oil prices rose in response to the US and Israel attacking Iran. The conflict also dampened markets : t...