S2 E10: I Won't Say I Told You So...

It's Season Two, Episode Ten and Greg reviews the dramatic shift in the monetary policy narrative from the Federal Reserve this past week, away from "fighting inflation" to "protecting the economy", following yet another in a string of EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK economic data, culminating in a nightmarish Employment Situation Report on Friday from the BLS.

Greg dissects the data, not only in the US, but also in China, who published equally WEAK macro-economic in the last two weeks, as the two largest economies on the planet are suddenly in a downward race towards a "recession".

As such markets have reacted precisely as Greg has been expecting since the first week of July, and dating back to late-March/early-April when he stated that by the August-October period the market would suffer from an "economic reality check". Bonds prices SOARED, boosting his Podcast picks in the SHY Short-Term Treasury Bond ETF, the MBB Mortgage Bond ETF and the XLE Real-Estate ETF, all of which rallied last week in the face of a deep decline in the indexes.

The reality check Greg has expected became more of an epiphany, as the market is realizing what Greg talked about in Episode Nine in mid-July, that the Fed and other global Central Banks have fallen "behind the policy curve" and need to act more aggressively amid a DEFLATION in economic activity. Greg has discussed that deflation since May, highlighting the crash in Home Building, a vicious contraction in the Mortgage market, a plunge in Home Sales, a Consumer who is being choked by continued, sticky, price inflation, and now a Service Sector into a mini-melt-down, and a Labor market that has turned to the downside, with 1.3 million more people unemployed in July, versus July of last year.

What is next for the markets? Greg ponders that question too. 

And finally, Greg examines a pertinent lesson to be learned from a Market Wizard, as he continues his review of (his former colleague, and boss) Jack Schwager's must-read classic book, "Market Wizards". This week Greg "talks to" legendary Commodity-Currency trader Bruce Kovner of the famed "Caxton Corporation" (formerly a client of Greg's, to be fully transparent.) 

Transcript

Speaker 1 0:01

Hi, I'm Greg Weldon, I'm your host and this is Money Markets and New Age Investing, season 2, episode 10. We do have the second part of our three-part special, which is Trading Lessons from the Market Wizards, coming up, but I want to talk about the global macro situation, particularly as it applies to the US, the Fed, the stock market, all of what we've been talking about on this podcast for the last two years. All right, and it's kind of like well, I could say that I told you so in terms of the things that I've told you here on this podcast. I said in March really into April that by the August-October period we would have an economic reality check. It would validate a shift in the Fed's narrative from fighting inflation to protecting the economy. I talked about that on Twitter. I talked about that on the other podcast, which I'm honored to be a regular guest, and I talked about it right here. I told you how vicious the deflation was in the housing market Starts, permits, completions, breaking the uptrends since 2010. Existing wholesales breaking a 56-year uptrend line, talking about prices going up but inventories going up too Unwanted inventory build because people can't afford homes.

Speaker 1 1:21

I've told you how stressed out the consumer really is and how it's been a consumer cocoon for the last 14 months, because real retail sales, after you adjust for price inflation, have been flat to down, deflating. In the meantime, savings depleted. Real wage gains relative to inflation are barely half of 1%, not enough, well below what the Fed wants. And you have a situation where most of the bulk of the income growth is coming from transfers, which is, government subsidies and entitlement payments. So you know, income is barely growing while spending is growing exponentially more than income is growing, and that's credit card use, and the percentage of consumers saying they're using credit cards to pay the bills is rising. And it's not surprising because I told you this for the last I don't know eight, nine, 10 months that the consumer is choking. All right, delinquency rates up at levels we've seen in 2007 and increasing at a faster rate than it did in 2007. I told you about the spike in unwanted inventories of the unsold homes, but also of vehicles, because auto sales are down big in the last two months. As a result, you have a 21% year-over-year increase in the inventories of unsold vehicles in this country.

Speaker 1 2:43

I told you that last time and I told you about the ISM service sector survey in the first week of June, the June service sector survey, which was the first week of July, that was so weak it changed, like everything, and all of a sudden, we know housing is creating, we know the consumer is choking. We know that retail sales are deflating. We know the consumer is choking. We know that retail sales are deflating. Now we know, and the manufacturing sector has been in a contraction forever, it seems almost two years.

Speaker 1 3:10

Frankly, with the ISM numbers that we just got, that were terrible Again. The only things left were the service sector and the labor market and Powell kept talking about the labor market. That hasn't rolled over yet. Well, guess what we found out? Or I should say the data got to a point where it was so visible above ground that everyone could see it, versus the data being buried in the data details where you have to dig below ground to see it. Which is what I do for a living, basically for my institutional clients, is I dig deep into the data to see the trends in the micro before they become macro. So we're ahead of the game and that's exactly what we've done here on the podcast in terms of all these things and to the degree that I said.

Speaker 1 3:53

The ISM service sector report for June, released in the first week of July, right after July 4th holiday might have been the day before actually was really a game changer because the service sector was like it's a mini meltdown is what I called it. Then you had the labor market data, which has been off four or five months now, where the household survey is much worse than the headline numbers, where the headline numbers have all kinds of swiss cheese, I've called it. And finally, last week we got the payroll number that put the data above ground, where everyone could see how bad this has been. I'm going to get into the data in a second, but I've also told you that against this, fed policy at five and a half is punitively tight and is tightening with every inflation indicator that ticks lower, makes the real interest rate higher and, to a degree to which, a more neutral rate, since Powell just came out since our last podcast and said look, the risk in the labor market is equal to the risk in inflation, which was huge, massive shift, which implies that when they go, they will go under the narrative of pushing towards a more neutral rate, because if the risks are balanced and frankly now the risks are all of a sudden not balanced. They're to the downside economically.

Speaker 1 5:15

And I said before the number came out to my institutional clients if you get a bad number, you might start to hear talk about a 50 basis point cut and dang. If it wasn't a half hour after the number came out, I heard someone on Bloomberg from JP Morgan saying Ben might have to cut 50. Why? To get to a more neutral rate. They have to act fast because they need a neutral rate now and neutral is 4%. Arguably, if you have inflation of 2.5, 150 basis points, you could be considered neutral. Based on R-star, we would say that neutral has to be a little higher than it used to be when they did r-star. When it was 50 basis points, I'd say 100 to 150 would be considered neutral, in which case four percent would be a fair interest rate right now, just to be neutral. Let alone that the labor market, you know, is in a position where it's telling you it's a first of all, it's a lagging indicator and it's blown open. Let's get to that data.

Speaker 1 6:06

Oh, by the way, I also told you one last thing that the NASDAQ was highly vulnerable. The tech sector was at risk of a profit-taking mini meltdown because there'd be a backing of buyers, because everyone owns it. Nobody's going to want to buy it when it's on the way down and it's a high price with low volume. And I said the place to be was real estate and the mortgage bond market, two ETFs that you can play in the stock market the XLRE and the MBB. I hope you did that because they vastly outperformed last week. They were both up huge when everything else was down. I also said treasuries and I said that in some interviews too that, as boring a trade as it is, the treasury market was set to explode and it did.

Speaker 1 6:47

The SHY was the short term. You have some other ones. I prefer the two and five-year notes. The curve is steepening. That's been another thing that I told you what happened. So in that context, I have to keep in mind because this business will eat you alive and that's how I survived in 40 years is by being humble.

Speaker 1 7:03

Yeah, I told you all these things, but I'm only as good as my next call. I mean, that's this business. Okay, you could hit 50 home runs and you're up in the World Series in the bottom of the ninth and you strike out. You're a bum. At least you are in the Bronx. You know seriously. So you know, with that I always pay homage to the trading gods because you never want to be unhumble. Having said that, I could argue that I have been as good as anyone out there at calling these markets and this Fed for the last couple of years, and I'm not saying I'm better than anyone. I'm saying I'm as good as anyone out there at doing this, and the track record really does expose that. But what next? Because who cares about the past successes? We know in this business, past results do not guarantee future results. I have to say that every time I talk about my track record in trading, which is frankly, knock on wood, as stellar as the calls have been, because of course, we've been trading these themes and making a ton of money for our money management clients.

Speaker 1 8:13

Let's get to the nitty-gritty of the data details here. Unemployment rose by 352,000 in july. The labor force rose by 420,000 and the problem last time was the labor force fell, which is why the unemployment rate didn't rise even more. But this time it did All right. You have 352,000 newly unemployed. The labor force coming back into labor force grew by 420. That gives you 770,000 people suddenly looking for a job in July, versus the 67,000 that actually were employed. 90% of those people did not find work in July. 90% less than 10% became employed in July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 from 4.1, but, more importantly, it's up 80 basis points from three and a half a year ago. A move of 50 basis points on a 12-month basis is considered a recession signal. You just moved 80 basis points and, like I said, the U6 rate. It's gone from like 7% to 8% and the U6 is the total unemployment rate. The 12-month change in the total number unemployed is 1.3 million.

Speaker 1 9:16

Where is this Biden strong labor market economy that the pop media wants to tell us about? I mean, they've been caught in so many lies now that not a word they say is believable anymore. I don't know why they think they're even credible to the least amount of of respect. They're not. The bottom line is the math doesn't lie and it was funny because someone said to me the math doesn't matter. It was. It was funny, it was one of the media types and I said something about this, that and the other thing in the math and person goes. Well, the math doesn't matter, it's what people think and it's kind of like you know what people think based on what you tell them, all right. And when you tell them the wrong things, they think the wrong thing.

Speaker 1 9:54

The 12-month change in the total number unemployed is 1.3 million. That is recession territory. When we've seen this in the past 2008, 2001, 1991, 2020 the only other four times go back to the 80s to 1980. The layoffs were up 249 000. The number working part-time for economic need of 346 000 people that couldn't find full-time work took part-time work even though that's not enough to pay the bills. Thank god they have a credit card, all right. Find full-time work. Took part-time work even though that's not enough to pay the bills. Thank God they have a credit card, all right. The part-time for economic reasons. The total number is now 4.57 million, the highest since the pandemic and making a new high and accelerating. This is bad.

Speaker 1 10:40

Within the context of oh, they championed the fact that average hourly earnings were up. Problem is the work week was down. So what if you made more per hour? You worked less hours. Your average weekly take-home pay deflated. In July it was lower than June and the year-over-year rate dumped to 3.3, which is barely above the 3% inflation rate.

Speaker 1 11:02

So inflation has come down. That's great, which is barely above the 3% inflation rate. So inflation has come down. That's great, but it has done nothing to lift real wages because wages have followed almost lockstep 3.3,. By the way, nominal wage growth is below what the Chicago Fed study has shown us a couple years ago. That the perfect kind of in the nirvanic world where you have a 2% steady inflation rate, wage growth would be between 3.5% to 4% to give you a 2% real wage growth relative to inflation. You don't have that. Consumers fall behind by the time they get their paycheck to the bank to cash it, but of course nobody does that anymore. But you know what I mean.

Speaker 1 11:38

The ISM manufacturing survey came out this week Also below 50. For 20 of 21 months it's gone from the recession zone between like 47 and 50 to the crisis zone. The percent saying new orders rose was 19%, while a third said new orders fell. Production went from 23% of firms said production was increasing a month ago to only 15% and the differential between those saying production is expanding versus contracting went from a positive production is expanding 6.8 percentage points in April to minus nine anda half in July. Really bad numbers from the US economy. It's no wonder that Powell said the things he said, and it does set up for a rate cut. More than that, though, is the fact that China is going down too. You have the two biggest economies, which account for almost 50% of world GDP. Between just the two of them, throwing the UK, which is cratering too, you have 51%. When you look at the US and China, both economies are cratering. Here In China, the latest data just came out imports fell year over year.

Speaker 1 12:56

They were expected to be up 2.8 year over year, they fell 2.3. They've been down five out of seven months on a year over year basis and seven of the last 12 months. Demand, final demand, in China is weak, really weak down 5% for the month on month. That is really really weak, for China especially, but for anyone by trading partner was interesting because it shows you the division in terms of the split in China, that side of the world, versus this side of the world All the things I talk about there, too.

Speaker 1 13:30

Trading partner imports from hong kong up 18. Imports from india up eight. Imports from russia up four. Imports from us down five. Imports from the eu down six. Imports from japan down four. Imports from the uk down three. Imports from all of the western countries down, having said, okay, their trade surplus with the US skyrocketed. All right, so it's like they're not buying stuff from us, but we're still buying stuff from them.

Speaker 1 13:59

Now let's really hunker down and I mean, let's go through a couple of numbers. I know some people don't love numbers, like I do, but this is really interesting to me. I think you're going to really find this to be cool and quite maybe troubling. All right, in terms of the trade surplus in China this year, the six-month trade surplus is $435 billion, positive 1.7 trillion exports against 1.2 trillion imports. Roughly All right. But of the 435, total trade surplus with the US is 160. It's 37% of the entire trade surplus. Which Chinese trade surplus is because of the US? It's 160. It's 37% of the entire trade surplus. Which Chinese trade surplus is because of the US.

Speaker 1 14:37

All right, the year-to-date average trade surplus from the US with China China's trade surplus is $27 billion. In June it was $32 billion, but let's take the average of $27 billion and keep in mind $32 billion in June was the trade surplus for China with the US. That's how much money we're sending them every month to buy stuff from them. The average consumer credit increased month to month this year, $15 billion, half as much as our trade deficit with Japan. I could if I'm a debating college kind of guy, right, I could debate the fact, or I could debate the point. I should say that consumers are borrowing money to send to China to buy crap they probably don't even need. Now, in this case, people are buying a lot of this crap they don't need because they have to buy stuff they do need which is even more expensive now. But I'm telling you, I mean $15 billion a month in consumer credit and we have a $30 billion per month trade deficit with China. Do we not see the connection here? Do we not see how kind of vulnerable we are in this bigger game and how we again are playing on our knees while the Chinese are playing above the rim? Having said that, okay, china hasn't kind of come down from slam dunking yet and they might twist an ankle on the way down. Why? Because their economy really under pressure.

Speaker 1 15:54

Bank lending all right down. 30.2 percent year over year, all right, uh, in terms of the you know amount, the actual amount, all right. Um, we're talking about the actual year over year percent change. All right, rolling was expected to be, excuse me, it was 8.1, which is down from 9.3, but 8.1 is the lowest ever for bank lending in Japan. You don't understand. Bank lending in Japan used to be 30% year over year.

Speaker 1 16:19

Now, of course a lot of this is mathematical certainty. When you have a 100 billion number 10% versus a trillion number 10% they're two different things. You can't keep growing at 10%. When you keep getting bigger and bigger, the rate of change is going to erode. That's what's happening with bank lending. But this is so bad that this is way more than just the mathematical dynamic here. All right, because at 8.1, the average monthly year-over-year rate of change for bank lending in China since 1998, is 15 percent. You're at half of that, half of that. The year-over-year rate in fact is down 28% just from June I mean, rather from May. So I mean this is really, really negative in terms of the whole credit dynamic, which China has become much more reliant on credit.

Speaker 1 17:08

But this is also a function of the whole housing market. They wanted to use regulatory pressure to bring the housing market down without having to raise rates and they effectively did that. But now it's gone too far, the pendulum has swung too far. Chinese new home prices down 4.5% year over year, down 12 months in a row, down seven months, where the year over year rate of change got worse every month. It's the third deepest ever decline in housing prices and bottom line is they still have no inflation. So no wonder they cut rates once and then cut them again, because cutting 10 base points was nothing. Then they went another 20, which at least gave you something. But the one-year bond in China is pointing to somewhere closer to 1%, all right, whereas rates are still significantly higher. The 10-year bond's two and a quarter.

Speaker 1 17:52

But here's the rub of all of this. And then we're going to get to some strategy, because gold in Chinese renminbi is up 119% since the third quarter of 2018. It has gone from 8,125 renminbi per ounce to 17,760. From 8,000 to 17,000 really, 18,000, more than doubled since 2018. And this is the country that's going to use the these renminbi and gold to back the new BRICS unit currency. This is the country that just dumped half of their 1.4 trillion holdings and bonds and bought 4,000 tons of gold with the dollar proceeds De-leveraging out of dollars buying gold. This is the dollar card that would ultimately be played Now.

Speaker 1 18:39

What's happened here is because of the dynamic around the decline in US interest rates. The decline in the two-year bond yield was so ferocious that we actually are narrowing our interest rate premium over Germany, and that is a dollar negative dynamic. In addition to that, the yield curve is now positively sloped, meaning the two-year yield is below the 30-year yield and dropping faster than the 30-year, which is why we told you, if you're going to buy the bond market, buy the two or five-year, buy the short end. Okay, All of this suggests you know. And then to boot, the dollar index priced in gold all right in measuring how much it takes to buy an ounce of gold is only 2% away from an all-time low. The dollar index, an all-time low. A low that would equate in the dollar index to 70. Right now it's at 103.5. You're talking about a potential 30% decline in the dollar. Here. Be really good for stocks. Problem is, the money you have wouldn't buy as much as the increase in stocks would have gotten you if the dollar hadn't moved.

Speaker 1 19:45

Now, what we did here on the podcast and in our portfolio playbook, which is every day and one big piece a week, where we give you all of this specific portfolios based on a variety of factors for different kinds of investors, my discretionary portfolio. We use ETFs to try and create a hedge fund slash CTA approach where you can be long and short currencies, commodities and stocks and overseas markets. We got out of all tech three to four weeks ago. We basically bailed on everything, including what do we have. We had tech, we had consumer staples, we had utilities and we had real estate. We bumped up the real estate, got out of everything else and then bought the SHY, which is the short-term treasury, and the MBB, the mortgage bond ETF, and those things soared last week Only things that were up and they were up huge.

Speaker 1 20:38

Now, as gold I've also recommended gold was up, was down big early in the week, then was up huge on Friday and then kind of collapsed into the close and finished unchanged. But it's kind of a microcosm, because gold in 2008 came down big when the stock market got whacked. And guess what? Stock market is only just the beginning. That's the next thing I'm going to say. But in terms of gold, which we also recommended holding and it hasn't lost you any money and in fact, it's performed relative to stocks remarkably well. So in that case, that's what we try and do protect you from loss in the stock market. Well, we did that real well if you followed our advice.

Speaker 1 21:11

But in terms of gold, it is a little bit risky here. But at the same time people have dumped their gold in the US. They opened interest down by half. It's down by half in barely a move. Every time the market wobbles, people sell in the US. So I still think it's a good play and I still think there's big upside there. But so I still think it's a good play and I still think there's big upside there. But when you look at silver or copper or uranium or crude oil, it's still the CRB and the commodity index down and as long as that's the case, it's also probably stocks down and I think until Jackson Hole, like the third week of August and I think the Fed loves this this is the period where they wanted to kind of see this. That would give them the you know the the confidence to declare inflation, to declare victory over inflation and to shift the narrative to protecting the economy.

Speaker 1 21:58

Now, before I get to our last little segment, I will say follow us on uh on x at weldon live. W-e-l-d-o-n. Weldon live, weldon Live At X. The podcast is at Money Underscore Podcast. I'm on YouTube. I have some great videos on there. Sometimes I post some quickies or I'll give you a complimentary copy of one of our products. It's Gregory Underscore, weldon. And then the podcast, also on Instagram and Facebook, at Money Markets and New Age Investing. Find us at all those places. Now we're going to finish today with our market wizards, jack swagger.

Speaker 1 22:32

One of my colleagues gave me permission two weeks ago to basically read some of this phenomenal book which if you haven't read and you want to do this, you need to read it. All right, it's a must read. Today's interview is with bruce kovner. Uh, and in terms of bruce kovner, I mean he's one of the all-time greats, used to be a client of mine and worked at Commodity Corp, where I also worked, so there's some connections here. He was a Harvard grad. He used to teach political science at Harvard and Penn. He was a political campaign manager, but then he got into the yield curve at some point with some work he was doing for some politician and decided he wanted to try trading in bonds. He ended up meeting Michael Marcus, who offered him a job at Commodities Corp which I've talked about before, where I worked, where basically the think tank, the ultimate pinnacle of commodity trading think tanks and really brilliant minds there, and so many of the greatest hedge fund traders cut their teeth at Commodity Corp. It was a great place to work. But some of the interviews that my buddy, jack Schwager, had with Bruce Kovner that I'm going to give to you and I'm telling you it's worth sticking around for the next five minutes just to get this stuff it really is.

Speaker 1 23:37

So the first big trade that Kovner did on his own was a soybean spread trade and he didn't really understand the risk that spreads can move as much as the underlying and sometimes each leg of the spread doesn't necessarily move in the same direction. Talking about calendars, you're playing this season's crop versus next season's crop type of thing. Next season's crop might go up because of something happening you know down the road with weather forecasts, whereas this season is already a bumper crop and those things could move differently. And that's what happened with his first big trade, where he was up huge and then liquidated one leg because why, you know, hold the short side of it if everything's going to the moon. And the next thing, you know, the market collapsed and he was all the way back down. He still made money, but he lost 50% of his capital on the downside? All right.

Speaker 1 24:18

So the question from Schwager so, on the way up, did you think, hey, this is easy? Bruce Conner replies yes, it was easy. And then it goes on to kind of talk about a few other things. It says even though you ended up making money on the trade, it was your most painful trade. He says I multiplied my money. I was insanely leveraged. I didn't understand the risk. So that was pretty interesting, because I think you have a lot of people now that have come into the markets because of crypto.

Speaker 1 24:45

That again, it's like get rich scheme, put everything into one basket and ride it, no matter what, you know, when that's not the most efficient way to do it. I'm not saying you know Bitcoin's, you know a problem. I like Bitcoin. It got stopped out the other day. I'll buy it again, but you know talking about in terms of trading again, and like, what lesson did he learn?

Speaker 1 25:04

He's talking about meeting Michael Marcus. You were influenced by Michael. Jack Swagger asked yes, very much. He taught me one thing that was incredibly important. He taught me you could make a million dollars. You could do this. If you applied yourself, great things could happen. It's easy to miss the point that you can really do it. If you take a position and you use discipline, you can do this. And then Swagger says well, it sounds like he gave you confidence.

Speaker 1 25:32

Kovner replies right, but he also taught me another thing that's absolutely critical, and this is what I pounded in the last time, what I pounded in the beginning of starting this podcast, and I pounded into everyone I talk about trading. This is the lesson of all time, much like Ed Sakota gave us in the previous podcast of all time. Much like Ed Sakota gave us in the previous podcast. He also taught me one other thing that's absolutely critical you have to be willing to make mistakes regularly. There's nothing wrong with making a mistake. Michael taught me about making your best judgment being wrong, making your next best judgment being wrong, making your third best judgment and then doubling your money. And that's what I said.

Speaker 1 26:09

It's not about being right, it's not about ego. You have to throw that out the window and think like a baseball player. You get a hit one out of three times. You're a rock star, million-dollar maker in the Hall of Fame. It's very similar to this. It's all about the math. Okay, you could lose half the time and as long as your profits are two and a half times your losses, you're going to make money.

Speaker 1 26:28

This is about making money, not about being right and feeding your ego, and I think that that's very difficult for people because we're conditioned to win in this country as a society and it's very difficult to reverse that conditioning. So I think that this is such a valuable lesson about this you know you'd be wrong. Make your next judgment. You could be wrong. Make your next judgment. You could be wrong. Make your next judgment. And, important beyond that, the corollary is to have some kind of discipline, whether it's technical, quantitative, fundamental, psychological, even gut feel. Have some kind of regiment around your discipline. All right, that gets you out when you're wrong, because that's the key. If you don't do that, you will never succeed in this business.

Speaker 1 27:11

Okay, when you're talking about what were some of the big blow-ups he saw with other traders position size, position size, position size he was talking about one guy who blew up, who was one of the brightest minds he ever met, but he couldn't trade because he just didn't understand or want to understand the risk. He said he traded much too big. For every contract one contract I traded, he traded 10. He would double his money but end up flat on the year. He would double his money twice, on two different occasions each year, but then end up flat on the year. And that's kind of interesting too, from the bigger perspective, in terms of all these lessons about the great traders being wrong, able to take a loss, admitting you're wrong. And again, the next thing about all this would also not become emotionally affected by your trading.

Speaker 1 27:54

And yeah, when I was in my 30s I had my Quotrex or my whatever quote machine of the time you know, with me at all times, my cell phone ready to call at all times. I was plugged into the market every second of every day. All right, now I am very much plugged in, but I'm also not, you know, obsessing with the performance. I am so confident in my methodology. You know that I have, you know, used over literally four decades of doing this that I don't question it.

Speaker 1 28:21

And a case in point was two weeks ago when I first got short stocks and it was after the employment number. And then, you know, biden drops out of the race over the weekend and all of a sudden, kamala harris's big deal and stocks rally huge on that following monday. I mean, you know that was a big swing where you know it's close to our maximum loss, I didn't bat an eye. You know why. I knew this was just a relief rally off the dems getting their their house in order at least a little bit, and that the reality was still the economy really was poor. The Fed meeting was going to deliver something that was going to be positive, and that's exactly what positive would mean for bonds and negative for stocks. And I got our clients into our biggest short position in stocks and our biggest long position in bonds and, man, over the next three to four days since Tuesday through last Friday, that paid off big.

Speaker 1 29:08

You want to get a sample of the research? Shoot me an email gregweldon at Weldon Online or sales at Weldon Online, and just be careful out there, man, we're going to steal that line from Hill Street Blues. Join us again on the next episode of Money Markets and New Age Investing. Thanks for listening.