S3 E11: Taking a Macro-Market Victory Lap

In today's podcast Greg rewinds to review his January 2025 Year-Ahead Outlook, his major macro-market trading/investment "themes":

-- Consumer Cocoon/Credit Crunch

-- Fed Acquiescing to Higher Rates of Inflation

-- Yield Curve Steepening

-- US Dollar Depreciation and Geo-Political Realignment

-- Rotation of Wall Street Money into Precious Metals Mining Shares

Indeed, as of September 5th these themes have been DOMINANT as per their influence on the global markets, particularly when it comes to the stellar outperformance by Gold & Silver Mining Shares/ETFs.

Greg takes a look at how his top picks in the Mining sector have performed over the last fifty-two weeks, most with TRIPLE-DIGIT rates-of-return!!!

Hopefully listeners and followers took full advantage of Greg's keen and prescient insights, instincts, and investment recommendations!!! 

Transcript

Economic Reality vs Media Narrative

Speaker 1 0:00

Hi, I'm Greg Weldon. I'm your host for Money Markets and New Age Investing. This is Season 3, episode 11. We'll get one more in at least before we go to Season 4. We roll over in Thanksgiving's our seasonality.

Speaker 1 0:17

But you know, it's really interesting here today as we kind of look back already a little bit on 2025. It's like what it's going to be the fourth quarter of 2025? How did that happen so quickly? And looking back, it's interesting to see some of the things we've said and to where we are now and how you have heard this narrative, especially on TV, where everyone has ratings go up when the stock market goes up for the financial channels they bring on. Most of these guys are portfolio managers, mutual fund managers, money managers. They all have skin in the game, but all in the same way that they're all bullish on stocks. So of course, the narrative always is kind of biased towards being positive and hey, that's fine. I mean, who doesn't want to be positive? But it kind of shades the reality and we've talked this all year about the consumer. One of my 2025 year ahead that's kind of what we're going to look at a little bit here today was the consumer cocoon and if it led to a credit contraction. That would be a big deal. It's happening right now. I also talked about, of course, housing's in crisis. We know that. We talked about the yield curve and how the bond market would start to shy away from all the supply we got to sell. We're pushing buyers away with tariffs, with sanctions, with our trade war, at the same time leaving the Fed again as the buyer last resort down the road to make sure it's not a bond market crisis.

Speaker 1 1:48

So you throw in then the labor market, which everyone insisted was strong, and it made me kind of sick to see the data and to see the misleading use of headlines on financial television, even to the political side of television television, even to the political side of television, and how, if you were saying that the labor market was weak, you were rooting against Trump. Quote-unquote from one of the Fox News personalities. It's like you can't tell the truth on either side. Now. I mean you can't be critical of any single thing ever. Come on, man. I mean it's gotten so bad on both sides it makes it very difficult to navigate any of these political waters. But the bottom line is the facts are the facts, the numbers are the numbers. The math is the math, it's not in dispute.

Speaker 1 2:31

We have trashed the consumer side of this for months. We started trashing the labor market side three months ago and all of a sudden, like everything happens these days, I've been doing this for over 40 years and I've seen one repeating pattern. It's all around human nature, whether it's paying avoidance with debt push it down the road or whether it's the case of you don't really trade off of something until everyone sees it, because you need the markets to move and for everyone to see it, it has to be above ground. So if you're not digging underground into the data to find the details, the micro that starts changing before it gets to the macro level and it rises above the earth so everyone can see it, as just happened with this week with the labor market data not just from the BLS either across the board labor market data. Now it's an epiphany. And now the markets are really moving, particularly in terms of the US bond market. Well, if you recall, we were talking about starting to build a position in the five-year treasury note a couple of weeks ago at least last episode here and that market's now breaking out. But let's get back to the data, because I'm going to go through this data really quickly and it's a lot of it, so fasten up, here we go. Challenger Gray Christmas. Great information Doesn't usually matter Suddenly.

Speaker 1 3:51

It matters when you see layoffs at 86,000 in the month of August. Check that for the month of August. Excuse me, that's the eighth largest month of layoffs since the pandemic, most of which have come recently, and it's the 15th highest single month of layoffs in the last decade, including the pandemic. Let me say that again 11 years, going back to beginning of 2015,. 2014,. End of 14. You're talking about 15 years and you're talking about I mean, this is the check that 10 years, but this is the 15th highest single month number in layoffs through an entire period. Not only that, but the eight month year to date, through August, is 892,000, which is larger than last year's full year total of 761. 892 versus 761 a year ago full year, and you still have three months left this year.

Consumer Cocoon and Credit Contraction

Speaker 1 4:56

All right, now what's interesting here? Dig deep. The deeper you dig, the more you find and the more data you have to put together your puzzle. Doge and AI have had an impact. Ai I calculated it out based on what the BLS data was to. Around 3.5% of jobs lost were because of AI. Doge was more sizable and what's interesting around here in terms of layoffs is that Doge was one of the biggest factors so far this year. Until August and really until the last couple of months, it's completely waned All right. There's virtually no impact. There was zero impact, according to the BLS from AI in terms of jobs lost in layoffs of 86,000. So the things you might say or you will probably hear on TV for people that don't think into the data, you know Doge and the AI impact and so on, and so not at all in August.

Speaker 1 5:45

This was pure the reasons cited bankruptcies, plant closures, business failures and cost cutting. Doesn't that sound like the R word to you? Bankruptcies, plant closures, business failures and cost cutting? Layoffs in services are up 60% year over year. Services are looking really really sickly To continue. Not only does Challenger Gray Christmas give us the layoffs, it gives us hiring plans and in this case and in this case, less than 1,500 new hires in August. It's the lowest August ever. Not only that, at 1,500, and we're talking about tens of thousands, normally in an August, and sometimes even six figures you got less than 1,494. So in July you had 3,200. In June you had 3,200. All three of those months were the lowest in the history of this survey in terms of hiring. So this June to August summer period was the least amount of hiring, according to this survey, that we have seen, dating all the way back to the financial crisis as data started 2009.

Speaker 1 7:00

Adp all right. Adp 54,000 increase, but 40,000 were leisure and hospitality, which is the lowest paying industry of all. Well, it's number two behind retail, all right, but not only that, it's half of July's number. But not only that. When you take the April August five-month total, okay, job increase of 226,000 is the lowest in five years for any five-month period, any five-month period. So when you talk about leisure and hospitality having literally 90% of the jobs that were created according to ADP, only 4,000 ex-leisure and hospitality you start to break down the pay, and ADP does a great job of monitoring the pay for job stayers and job leavers. It's a really kind of in-depth stuff. What you have is ADP pay for the average person staying at their job 4.4. Down from 4.5 a month ago. Down from 7.8, which was the high in 2023, I think it was or 22, one or the other, but 7.8 was the high. You're now down to 4.4.

Speaker 1 8:03

But here's the problem. Here's the problem when you don't dig deep enough into the data. Let's consider small businesses less than 20 employees one to 19 employees of businesses that run as a business, not really including the family businesses that are not really operating, you know, as a real balance sheet business. This is the way to break it down. All right, this is the ADP. It gets all the payroll numbers, all right. So, small businesses less than 20 employees, 89% of the businesses and representative of 47% of the workforce, almost 60 million people represented in the one to 19 number of employees category. That ADP gives us data for where the income growth there, the actual growth, not expected growth. The actual growth versus a 4.4 headline, which gets everyone all excited because everyone's making more money. No, half the people are at 2.5, which is below the core PCE of 2.8. They're minus 30 basis points in real income. By the time they cash their check, they're already underwater in terms of what their money can buy.

Speaker 1 9:16

So let's talk more about services, right, because the ISM service number was really interesting. I have to admit there was strength here in the orders and in the activity. New orders and activity were strong, no denying it. Numbers in terms of the firms and percentages flipped was robust. So that was a good part of this number. But the bigger part and the thing that the people at the ISM highlighted were that inventories are now rising for a couple of months in a row and the backlogs have crashed. Backlog of order has completely collapsed. It's a 16-year low in the backlog of orders index. So what's happening? You've cleared out all the backlogs. That's kept production high and now that's sitting on shelves. It's inventories.

Speaker 1 9:59

And, by the way, I'll throw in here the LMI, the Logistic Managers Survey. The LMI, the Logistic Managers Survey. The LMI, the Logistic Managers Index, just told us that warehouses are almost full capacities. Up costs are running really high now, as is transportation on the downside, because now you're not transporting as much stuff because you have warehouses full of it. So inventory costs are rising, warehousing costs are rising. The capacity held at warehouses is rising. Unwanted inventories in the ISM are rising because the backlogs have collapsed. This is set up to pancake the service economy and we've already talked about too kind of the service economy when you're talking about this whole nine yards around these inventories versus backlogs, which is stagflation because prices are still rising.

Speaker 1 10:47

But what's interesting in the PCE data, spending on services, which is 71% of the economy, was only 8 billion in July. That's a tiny, tiny number. That's 0.1%, which annualized let's just call it one and a quarter 1.2 annualized and that's been running. It's been 0 or 0.1 for six months in a row, so it's actually even a little lower. If you take a six-month annualized, it's even lower than 1.2. And then we take the PCE service price index, which rose to 3.6 from 3.5.

Speaker 1 11:22

You're talking about the service industry is in a stagflationary upside down situation of of 2.4%. That's big, that's big, I mean, it really is, you know. So, among all that, I thought this was really interesting as it related to that. When you're talking about that as well, I mean, you know, five out of six months, five out of six months the employment index from the ISM for services has been below 50. Been below 50. That's a rarity. Five out of six months, that's really low. It's 46.5. 71% of the economy You're talking about. You know the employment dynamic shrinking. We see the same thing.

Speaker 1 12:03

All the data now is starting to confirm all of this stuff. All right, let's look at the PC numbers for a second, which came out a week ago. It's one of the last data points to come out for the previous one. So some people look at it still. I love it because it gives you such detailed numbers for so many different things. All right, you're talking about disposable income was up big. This again is like, wow, there's a positive, holy mackerel, let's grab onto it. I want to be positive about something besides you know, just life in general and spirituality.

Speaker 1 12:32

But talking about the markets and the economy, the reality of the reality of what we do $93 billion in DPI, most of which came from wages and salaries, but you also had returns on assets up, proprietary income, up rental income up. All of this was up. So 93 billion in DPI in a single month. This is annualized increase over the entire total, which looks at trillions over a year. You're talking about spending, though, rose by more. So the second they had money. They spent it on.

Speaker 1 13:04

Vehicles were a third of the expenditures vehicles and you might say, well, that's a discretionary item. I would say, no, this is exactly what. I know someone actually in my family who's been waiting to make enough money to buy a car and it's like this is like a necessity for a lot of people. The second they have money what do they do? Huge spending on vehicles, we saw in the retail sales number two. It held up retail sales almost single-handedly. But what's the same thing we see here is what we saw in the retail sales number. Besides vehicles, spending was on healthcare, food and housing. What it wasn't on was eating and drinking establishments. In both the retail sales number and in the PCE numbers deflation on a monthly basis Now, for several months out of several months in each, both, two of them, two data points coming from different places telling us the same exact data on the same exact sector. People are eating and drinking out less and that's a feel-good factor and that's a sign of the consumer cocoon's hardness right now. And what I say at the beginning of the year Consumer cocoon. And there you are, it's there and that you'd have if you turn into a credit crunch. That would be a real signal and that's now happening.

Speaker 1 14:14

We're talking about commercial bank credit, consumer loans, credit cards. All right, as of May. This is weekly data, may 7th $1.1 trillion. As of May. This is weekly data, may 7th $1.1 trillion. As of last week $1.098 trillion. Check that vice versa $1.098 trillion on May 7th, now 1.1 is literally only $2 billion higher on trillion number, on a trillion dollar number $2 billion. Okay, that's

Speaker 1 14:43

.18. Annualized, that's .7. 0.7 increase in commercial bank credit card loans outstanding 0.7 annualized, versus the year-over-year rate of inflation of 3, 3.1, 2.8. The year-over-year rate of credit card, I should say the year-over-year rate of credit card growth in the same area 0.7 annualized. But the actual year-over-year rate has dropped to 3%, which is below anything we ever saw prior to the pandemic. I mean going all the way back to 2008. Prior to the pandemic, I mean going all the way back to 2008. I mean the low back then was like 4 and

Speaker 1 15:16

then 4.3. All right, you're talking about inflation. Core CPI at 3.1 against credit card spending, loan growth, commercial banks 3%. It's not even the rate of inflation, it's not keeping up, even though it's borrowed. You know it's now starting to crunch in terms of people either can't or unwilling to borrow more money at the highest interest rates ever. So you know, we talked then about turning to the Fed, because all of this, especially the data we got, you know, in terms of the, we're not even ready for the

Speaker 1 15:49

Fed yet. Where am I here? Yeah, so in the same vein, revolving credit is another one, that's consumer credit. All right, and revolving credit is one of the two. Yet when am I here? Yeah, so, in the same vein, revolving credit is another one. That's consumer credit. All right, and revolving credit is one of the two categories. All right, it's down $34 billion over the last 12 months. It is a rolling 12-month negative for months running. It's the third deepest deficit ever in terms of credit contraction. The only other credit contractions that were larger were 2009 and 2020. And now, and now and then you wonder why. Seriously delinquent on credit card debt is 12%, the second highest ever, second only behind 2008. Are we seeing this here? I mean, are we

Speaker 1 16:29

seeing it? Let's then talk about the consumer's expectations going forward, because that's even more critical If the consumer's choking. Talk about the consumer's expectations going forward, because that's even more critical. If the consumer's choking, if the consumer's cocooning and you're in a situation now where they've run out of gas, what happens next as consumers see their real income plummeting in the next 12 months? The University of Michigan you might chide at that, but University of Michigan survey 3.9%, okay, 3.9% for five years, that's unanchored. That's inflation expectation unanchored, no doubt, as is the one year which jumped in August to 4.9, up from 4.5. That's 40 basis points in a single month. It's above four for seven months in a row. So you're either 3.9 or 4.9 on the one-year, five-year inflation expectations for University

Speaker 1 17:19

of Michigan. Now you may say University of Michigan is not really credible. I would tell you this. The New York Fed survey says the same thing, in the sense that the New York Fed shows the household survey, 42.1% of households, consumers the largest grouping ever in any one of these categories of the end result, 42% expect inflation one year from now to be above 4%. So it's the Fed, it's the University of Michigan, it's all telling us that they're expecting some of the highest inflation that most people have seen in their lifetimes. All right, and here's the rub. It's now affecting every income level. Every income level now, because when you're talking about a 3.9 or a 4.9 rate of inflation, even the 100K and above income level who has an income expectation of 3% over the next 12 months is negative relative to inflation expectations one year out. Big time by almost 2% Below 50,000 in income. You're just getting crushed. It's almost a 4% negative real income deflation. How do you think? How do you keep spending it? They don't have credit cards, it's been taxed out and now you know oh my God, come on. And now labor work is oh my God, come on. And now labor work is going to

Service Economy Stagflation Warning Signs

Speaker 1 18:36

roll over. The non-formed payrolls would show the following Notely unemployed 177,000. That's, five weeks or less. Long-term unemployed 27 weeks or longer 104,000 increase. Part-time economic reasons up 65,000. Marginally attached up 147,000. Discouraged workers up 89,000. Not in the labor force 2.86 million. Now, that's down a little bit of interest from a month ago when it was 3.1, which is up there with 2009, 2014, remember you had the taper tantrum

Speaker 1 19:11

and 2020. Talks about turbulence when you're up there, when consumers are not working, let alone, you know, earning less than inflation. Come on, man, this is like you know. I'm laughing because it's so bad. You have to just kind of try and make light of it, even though you can't, and that's why you don't hear this on TV. All right, and here is another rub. All right, it's kind of rubbing your nose in it those that did return to the

Speaker 1 19:36

labor force. There was 220,000 of them. So labor force grew by a lot 436 increase, including people getting of age and stuff like that. Then you had a rise of 148,000 in unemployment. That gives you a total increase, not necessarily in the labor force, but it's a pool of labor of 564,000 for the month and only 288,000 of them found jobs. That is why the unemployment rate rose right there, because for the first time you had a dynamic where it wasn't more people dropping out of labor force than finding jobs, and that's why the unemployment rate was not dropping. That's over, okay, that's over, at least for now. So that all leads us to the Fed, not to jump ahead before, but the Fed,

Speaker 1 20:23

all right. So this was like an epiphany on Friday. It was like a wake-up call, like, oh my God, the labor market is week two, holy mackerel. The Fed's going to have to ease to support the consumer. I mean, we can say this for a couple of months at least, and we talked about at the beginning of the year. Of course, one of our big plays was first of all, consumer cocoon and potential credit crunch, which would then drive the Fed to acquiesce to higher rates of inflation. That's now coming. I mean, honestly, the Fed funds rate. They're going to be cutting rates when you haven't had the PCE core rate at or below target for 52 months and you're going to tell me the 2% target is credible, they're abandoning it. They're just not telling you All right. So the market is too, because, frankly, you know inflation is going to rise, so they need to cut soon, otherwise they're going to be seen even more acquiescing and that could be even more dangerous to the bond market. So this is where people are already talking about yield curve control, because there's going to be a fine, you know, walking over Niagara Falls with a bounce beam,

Fed Rate Cuts and Bond Market Implications

Speaker 1 21:17

you know. So let's look at the Fed and where it's priced now, because not everyone follows this out there Fed funds. So for the end of this year, currently four and a quarter to four and a half is the range, which means 437, and a5 is the actual midpoint. So keep in mind 437.5. For the end of 2025, you're looking at 3.77. And by the end of next year, 2.89. So you're pricing in 100% chance of five interest rate cuts to a minimum of 3% by the end of next year and a 94% chance of a sixth cut. That will get you to a level of 2.75% to 3% as your target range for Fed funds, with a midpoint there for, obviously,

Speaker 1 22:03

of 2.875. So coming down from 4.375 to 2.875, that's 150 basis points in 15 months. That's a lot. Not only that, but the chances that we get two cuts this year. Right now, according to the market, it's 100%, but the chance that the third cut comes this year instead of next year is actually 42%. That's pretty high. Now I can make a case that you could easily do that and get to a range of 3.5 to 3.75. Why? Because now you're more than 50 basis points above the rate of inflation which would be neutral. You need to be neutral at least, and then if inflation rises, then you're going to actually get a little more stimulative. As inflation rises, I hate to say it it's like by doing nothing. So this is where the Fed may be. Already we know they're behind the curve and they may actually miss the boat here in terms of the timing to get to a level that might be a little more stimulative. That might say, where the Fed funds pushes it down to below 3% for next year, where the real Fed funds rate

Speaker 1 23:07

is zero. Back to ZERP. This is what's priced into the market. This is what's priced into the market is this is what's priced into the market. We go back to Zerp by the end of next year. What do you think stocks do if that becomes not a reality? I mean, holy mackerel. That's about as positive a monetary backdrop as you want to paint, unless you think Donald Trump's going to get control of the Fed and force them to cut rates to 2%. That's not happening. It's just

Speaker 1 23:35

not happening. So, within all that context, what's interesting too, is we started building a position in the five-year which is more vague than the two-year. The five-year two-year curve is flat. It's five basis points been there for weeks. So the five-year is moving with the two-year, which is really interesting because this is suggesting people are not worried about a bond market crisis and they don't see an end to whatever QE is coming next until 2030. Think about that. I mean, this is how bad the market and the fixed income market is priced, and the stock market is priced for virtual nirvana. So

Speaker 1 24:09

we're long. The five-year note in a futures market that's what we do trade regulated futures contracts. And what's interesting, the five-year note in a futures market that's what we do trade regulated futures contracts. And what's interesting is the two-year note is 348. All right, I see room down to 290. And there's no reason a two-year note has to be behind the two-year Fed funds forward, all right. Then we talk about the five-year. All right, it's moving from 380 to 348. Below 342, that's April's low. That would be a breakdown. It would be the lowest weekly close since 2022. And I think that's scoped down to 310. Why 2018 high was 310. Core CPI is 310. Core CPE is 2.8. I mean a five-year. I mean you know you overshoot now too, but not

Speaker 1 24:49

only that. The other thing we started talking about was how all this would be dollar negative. One of the ways it's dollar negative is it puts pressure on the yield differentials. Us has had this huge interest rate premium. I mean at the end of last year we're talking just eight months ago. Nine months ago, it was 225 basis points. You got paid 2.2% just to hold dollars over euros. That has now shrunk to 135 and made a new low, literally this week the lowest since May of 2023. That has now shrunk to 135 and made a new low literally this week. All right, the lowest since May of 2023. The dollar dollar index, which is Euro weighted too. So keep that

Speaker 1 25:22

in mind. I like to look at everything. That's just $1, you know, measure is the dollar index. Usdx that's the futures contract 96.37 last. The major breakdown point is less than 100 points away 96.37 last, 97.73. Check that 97.73 last, and the June 30th low, which would be the breakdown level, is 96.37. So you are literally 140, 135 points away, which is interesting because the straight differential is 135 points. Wow, that's just coincidence, but

Speaker 1 25:55

that's interesting. Dollar right now down 3.5% year over year. Think about gold does, when the dollar is down, 12, 13, 14, 15%? All right. So the things we said were yield curve nailed it. Fed acquiesces to higher general rates of inflation to protect the consumer, housing and labor market, maybe even the bond market. It's there. The USDX lower, it's on the

Speaker 1 26:19

verge here. Definitely what's happening all of this, let alone pushing India towards Russia and China, is just not the way to go here. Man, that's like the final nail in the coffin of you know kind of the dollar pressure, even though it's been going on since 2018. I talk about this all the time. When Shanghai opened the crude oil futures market, denominated in Rimnibi, and that OPEC agreed to have the Dubai OPEC grade crude be the benchmark, be the crude oil they trade in China, in Chinese currency, and Russia benchmarked the Earl's crude to it, that was the beginning of the end for the dollar in terms of, you know, being the petrodollar, being the currency of trade, all these things. Tariffs, sanctions, you know, double sanctions, double secret probation, whatever you know, the US does seize assets and now pushing India towards Russia and China closer, at a time when Russia and China finally agreed on the details to the pipeline they agreed to back when China hosted the Olympics and Putin and China sat down and Xi sat down the pipeline for natural gas from Russia directly to China and involving the other countries that are involved in that

Speaker 1 27:22

was amazing. So what's next? Well, what's next and I told you this too, all right, not to be fooling myself, but just so you understand we've nailed this and hopefully we're nailing it as we go forward. So have you listened to the advice we've been giving here, which is specifically gold and silver mining shares, our top picks, get the special. Here's the macro, here's the debt, here's the debt black hole, here's the whole thing around the consumer cocoon. All this comes down to things that we said, like people will be chasing the gold market higher. That's happening now. And finally, you're seeing an open interest. This has been BRICS buying. This has been central bank buying in gold. That's why silver hadn't participated until

Gold Mining Shares Outperforming Tech

Speaker 1 28:04

just now. Just now, this is starting to be a rotation of major money from Wall Street, major money management, major pension funds, major retirement funds, out of the top stocks that are outperform, ai, tech chips all these things are on the ropes here and I'll tell you about that in a second. But the degree to which now rotation we're seeing it in the new mods, in the Anglo-Achantes and all the stocks they said watch these stocks because when Wall Street moves their money, they're going to buy the names they know. That's how they answer somebody for all of this, so they're going to buy Newmont. And what has happened? Rotation has come in, exactly like I said, it's coming directly out of the tech sector. Too, people are chasing this market higher and too People are chasing this market higher and right now I mean the GDX is back to the 2011 high. All right, I mean honestly. Since February of last year, it's up 159%. Over the last 52 weeks it's up 83%. We've been hawking it for well over 52 weeks versus the S&P. Over the last 52 weeks is up 54%. Against the S&P 5,400 basis points, greater performance than the S&P 500. Against the S&P, infotech, the GDX is outperformed by 4,200 basis points 42% 4,200 basis points. The Infotech XLK has performed the GDX gold mining shares and versus gold. The GDX mining shares up 27% against the price

Speaker 1 29:39

of gold. Newmont I said watch the big three, angle Gold, ashani, barrick and Newmont. The flow turned positive in January 25. We talked about that. Newmont took out 50 in April. We said that was the breakout, the second tier breakout. It's now 76. It's up 51% in the last 52 weeks. Okay, and it's at a level that it's only been at in 1987 and 2022. And it's up 5% now over 52 weeks against gold. Newmont is up 26% over the last 52 weeks against the S&P 500. And on that ratio spread Newmont against the S&P 500. It is violated to

Speaker 1 30:19

the upside. Newmont has the downtrend in place since July of 1990. A 35-year downtrend, just like the 30-year bond yield, just like the plot of inflation. All of these things are tied together, tied together. And again we talk about the core PCE rate, last at 2.8, hasn't been at or below 2% for 52 months. I mean wow. I mean the last time, in fact, that it was at Target. We were less than halfway through Biden's presidency, it

Speaker 1 30:53

was 2001. Let's look at some of the stocks that were our top picks. Just because you know, every now and then you got to take a victory lap and I've gotten so many nice emails lately, so I just want to kind of, you know, maybe just suck some more people in, because you know we've known this a long time and I think we've really done a good job, especially when it comes down to our picks. Our number one pick throughout this past year has been Kinross, all the way, first in Canadian dollars, then we swapped it into US. It's up 165% in the last 52 weeks. Antigo Eagle up 98%. Gold Road up 119%. Torex up 113%. Anglo Gold, ashanti up 110. Iam Gold up 106. Gold Fields which we recommended late, not capturing this whole game up 158% In the

Speaker 1 31:42

mining shares. Silver miners okay, with the SAL too. Don't forget the silver. Now it's participating. Why? Because this is a bigger picture move and the dollar hasn't even cracked yet. Wait till the dollar cracks. Only macro Fortuna up 88. That's been our big top pick. So is First Majestic 97. Pan Am always a top pick up 86% over the last 52 weeks. And MAG up 109% over the last 52 weeks. A percent over the last

Stock Market Risks and Final Thoughts

Speaker 1 32:13

52 weeks. A late addition to our we talked about this too was Royalty Place and Oceana Gold. It was six bucks, it's now 26 bucks. It's up 700 percent in the last 52 weeks. We got in very late, but even very late. Pace triple digit returns On the flip side. Nvidia. Pace triple digit returns On the flip side. Nvidia, the XLK, the XSD semiconductor index ETF, all look very toppy. Here's the breakdown pivots NVIDIA 168.80. Below that you have a lot of new money that's going to be trapped underwater. Xlk, the S&P Infotech below 255, major breakdown 255, major breakdown. Xsd semiconductor ETF below 267, major breakdown For the indexes the S&P 500, 62.38. The

Speaker 1 32:54

NASDAQ 22.775. I think this market is bubblicious, I think it is out of touch and the bond market is telling the stock market that they're in for a reality check. This feels a lot like, honestly, august into September of 1987. And you know, in a lot of ways of course it isn't a lot of ways, but there are similarities here in the psychology and the interaction between stocks and bonds. That feels very, very familiar. I will also add, by the way, the DAX, the German DAX, looks like AI. I mean the DAX because of fiscal spending on defense and you know, unloosing the purse strings, you know, fiscally, has really driven the DAX, much like it has driven the NASDAQ. So watch the German DAX too, because 23,440 in the cash German DAX would be a major,

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major breakdown. And the other thing I would say too keep an eye on the XLE, the energy sector. You know heating oil and crude oil. There's a domestic we're low supplies domestically. We continue to export crude but we're still a net importer. And you know production is high but we're still seeing inventories decline because we're not pumping out enough distillates or gasoline, you know, to meet demand. So in this case, I think that this is an undervalued area of the market that could work well in a dollar down environment, which would be kind of you know that inflationary for

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commodity sector. To keep up with this, shoot me an email. I have several specials I can send you on the debt, on the metals, tell me what you're interested in, I'll send you some stuff. Greg Weldon, g-r-e-g-w-e-l-d-o-n. Gregweldon

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at weldononlinecom. All right, we have our most recent gold picks out now, after the market's taken off, and people are doing exactly what we said they would do, which is chasing this market higher, which I tried to hopefully got as many of you as possible to understand. You need to be in rather than be the one now that where it's high, should I buy it. The risk is way, way bigger now. So those are really tough questions. We try and answer those questions every single day. By the way, I like Ethereum. Here too, I think it looks very well positioned for another big move to the upside. We made a lot of money in the third quarter for our money management clients in Ethereum as well. Follow me on Weldon at Weldon Live. W-e-l-d-o-n Live on Twitter. On X I should say Sorry, my screen went blank. That means I've been off for over half an hour. And then Gregory underscore Weldon at YouTube and, of course, you know the podcast, money underscore podcast. That's it for this week, this month. Thanks for listening. We'll be back at you next time.