S4 E3: FOMC - Master Magicians of Misdirection or Monetary Con Artists?

The US FOMC is playing the ole Shell Game with this past week's "SEP"!

Where is the Pea? (AKA US Consumer Final Demand Growth)

Shell One:  Inflation NO HIGHER than 3% this year, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.2% in 2028.

Shell Two:  Nominal GDP Growth of +5.2% in 2027.

Shell Three:  NO Change in Unemployment Rate 4.4%, same in 2027 and 2028 (but maybe on tick higher to 4.5%), either way reflects virtually NO impact from AI.

Wild Card:  Fed envisions a top-end Fed Funds Rate of FOUR PERCENT (3.9%) next year, based on growth in “real” GDP to 3% or higher!

There is NO PEA to be found…The Fed’s narrative is overly optimistic, an expert misdirection, yes. But one that flirts with the realm of being a “con”!

Either way…the Fed only wants, and needs, you to believe that the PEA IS THERE to be FOUND!

Transcript

Welcome And The Fed Pause

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hi, Greg. Weldon, back at you with season four, episode number three. It's been a while, but man, has it been busy? Holy mackerel. Today we're going to talk, at least start out with the Federal Open Market Committee. They met this week, decided no rate change wasn't a surprise. The press conference really wasn't a surprise. Powell's going to stand his ground. He's not going to leave until his term is up, or you know, you have the normal process. This is the way, you know, once you get into this kind of position, that's what you do. You go by tradition. So he's sticking to his guns essentially. But when I look at what the FOMC just gave us this week, I scratch my head because it seems idyllic. It seems I kind of hearken back to instinct and to even childhood. I grew up in the streets of New York City, was born in uh Greenwich Village. I lived uh in Queens Boulevard. I lived on the Upper East Side. I grew up kind of in North Jersey, but I worked at the World Trade Center, the World Financial Center, on Wall Street, the Trinity Building. You know, I was a bouncer at the limelight. You know, talk about a really great job. That was an awesome job. But the Market Bar, O'Hara's downtown, China Club, Dorians, Trader Vicks, Rocky Lee's, South Street Seaport. You know, I grew up in New York. Uh, we had a lot of hockey tickets and basketball tickets floating around too. So I was always dealing with the scalpers down on Eighth Avenue. So it was a good education, much more than a grade school would be. I was the oldest of three kids. And, you know, I took my brothers and we'd go out and, you know, go to a ranger game, go to a Knick game. It was back in the day when you know your parents didn't have on a leash with electronic uh cell phone and a whole nine yards. I was also into magic, and my dad used to take me to the Lewis Tannan Magic Shop in Midtown Manhattan on a Saturday afternoon. You'd have all kinds of sleight-of-hand performers there doing parts of their act, honing their craft, teaching. You were, you know, of course, you had the salespeople trying to sell you stuff. I had a whole kind of kit, a whole bunch of props, including the ball and club trick. Anyone that's ever been into magic knows exactly what I'm talking about. Or maybe if you watch the geeks on uh the big bang theory, maybe you've heard of it too. But it leads back to also growing up in New York on a street corner one day when I'm a teenager, coming across that old shell game. Guy with a tray table, it could be a cardboard box on his lap, whatever it was with three shells in the old vernacular. You know, you'd have three half walnut shells. It wasn't always the button, of course, often little cups, but whatever it would be, and a shell. And you had to, you know, here's the shell, put it under one cup, mix them all up. Which shell, which cups the shell under? And it's a con game, but it's also a sleight of hand. It's magic. It's uh, you know, it's an art form, if you will. And in this case, the F1C is you have to ask the question. In my mind, I asked the question, you know, I mean, are these guys more like, you know, monetary magicians, you know, of misdirection and manipulation? Or is it more like they are con artists and you know, basically running a scam? And if you look at the SCP, which is their forward economic expectations, we have three shells. What do we need most in the economy that kind of right now we don't have consumer final demand growth? That is self-sustaining, organic, and relatively robust relative to inflation at the very least, with wage growth that supports spending growth, which is all above inflation. All right. But where is the P under which shell? Well, shell number one, and we get four things from the Fed in their expectations going forward. Under shell number one, inflation will be no higher than 3% this year. It already is 3.1, core PCE, 3.1 core CPI, and no higher than 2.5 next year and 2.2 in 2028. So inflation continuing to come down this year, next year, and the year after to where the highest estimate along the Fed is for 2.2% inflation. Now that's possible for sure. There's many ways you could get there, but I don't think it goes in hand with the other shells. And shell number two, nominal GDP growth of 5.2% next year. 5.2% based on a lower inflation, higher real GDP, and you have to have a high nominal growth of GDP. 5.2 for all of next year. And shell number three, with that in mind, all right, there will be no change in the unemployment rate. Maybe it ticks up to 4.5. Maybe that's the high end. But more likely, according to the Fed, it ticks lower. Basically saying there's no impact to be had from AI, none, zero, nada. And on top of that, the wild card is if we need a fourth shell in this game. I'm not sure the guy could manipulate the shells fast enough. Where the Fed envisions their own Fed funds rate to be at a high at the high end of the range, 3.9. And it's based on growth in real GDP of 3% or higher. I mean, there's no P to be found if what we know to be true now, you know, and this is what the Fed expects. I just see a total disconnect here. Uh I just don't see where the P is in terms of consumer final demand growth being strong enough, given that we know inflation is already coming. They're basically saying inflation no higher than three, it's already higher than three. And yes, that's for the full year. But guess what? It's going to go higher. In fact, it already is. I mean, it just is. When you look at the numbers I'm about to show you for PPI, let alone that PC core is 3.1, P uh CPI core is 3.1. I mean, the only major inflation indicators that are below three are a couple Fed specialties. And in this case, we already know what services are, and I'm going to tell you that too. So what's interesting about it is the Fed just said we're going to have a Fed funds rate next year could be as high as four percent. Well, guess what? The futures market agrees 100% with that as of this past week, when it totally flip-flop from expecting an ease to expecting tightening. And not only that, expecting tightening. We'll get into this in a little more in a minute, but cons but expecting more than one tightening is a high probability for next year. That rates would be back to where the Fed, top end of the range is of estimates, puts it at 3.9. All right. The real P is not to be found, it's consumer final demand growth. And, you know, the reasons I say that are primarily because we already know where the consumer is. We're going to talk more about that in a second. But I've been saying, I mean, the dagger to the back of the consumer, the dagger to consumer final demand growth here in the US would be another bout of inflation. It's not coming, it's here already. And the PC numbers I could go through, but really PPI, which came out yesterday, was mind-blowing. Really, really caught my attention. Core PPI is 3.9. That's up from 3.2 two months ago, 70 basis points. And this is as of February before the war started. This doesn't include the war. And not only that, but the the January expectation for February was three. So when you talk about 3.9, you're actually 90 basis points above where you thought you'd be at the beginning of the year. According to the pundits, the economic uh forecasters. All right. This is the highest rate in three years. It ties the highest rate at 3.9. That going all the way back, if you exclude 2021 and 2022, it's the highest in 14 years. Inflation is high already in the pipeline before the war. And people are not, I don't think, fully either grasping that or caring or looking, or I don't know. I mean, considering that you now have a higher high off a lower low, a higher low, excuse me, in inflation, which is what I said. The pattern would be once you had the big inflation, then you would have the disinflation which you had, then you have another bat of inflation, then another disinflation, and then you would take off and you're right there. Because bottom line is for the PPI core, 1.8 was the low in December of 2023, then it rose, then it came back down to 2.7 this past June, 2025, and it's now higher. 3.9. Breaks out. It's a breakout. Now, even worse is final demand goods, because we know that service inflation has remained sticky, and I'm gonna go through all those numbers in a minute, all over again. Service inflation remains well above the majority of service uh CPI indexes are running above 4% year over year. The majority are above 4% year over year. I'm gonna read them out to you in a minute. But for now, sticking to PPI where it's in the pipeline, let alone it's already reaching the end game here. Final demand goods up 1.1 for the month, double digit annualized, that's the highest since August of 2023. Final demand for energy up 2.3 for the month. This is February, keep this in mind. And it was cold, so there's a higher energy usage already. Up 2.3 for the month, that's 25% annualized. But final demands for food, final demand PPI for food, 2.4 for the month, that is almost 30% annualized. And we've been talking about some of the food dynamics in the commodities markets. All right. But it gets worse because even further down the pipeline, intermediate term, final, excuse me, intermediate term demand for goods, the core goods intermediate, 1.6 for the month. That's up 20% year over year. The core rate, that was the intermediate goods, the core rate 0.8, 0.5, 0.8, the last three monthly increases. Intermediate energy, 5.5 for the month. That's 65% annually before the war. Before the war. The year over year for all intermediate dynamics, 4.4.0, up from 2.8 in January. That's 120 basis point increase in February. Last February was 0.3. Now it's four. It's the highest in four years. Inflation's not dead. And so I did a piece for my clients, Ding Dog, the witch is dead. Not because the inflation, which is not dead, the inflation which is flying around in a broom, kind of, you know, coming back with a whole new gang of monkeys. I kind of like that. Gasoline. Let's talk about gasoline. All right. And I ran the year-over-year numbers this week for my clients. All right. The current April price, and you got to compare the board, all right? So we're not taking the current price and comparing it to last June. We'll take the board and the strip and we'll take this June's price and compare it to last June. And you get a run as to where the inflation push is. April, right now,$318.40 was the settlement on Friday. Last April was$203.75. That's a dollar fifteen difference. The base effect is 56.3% inflation push from gasoline on a year-over-year basis. Hello. May is 54.5. June 47%. July now it dips down because the July price for this year, for this coming summer, you know, June's the peak. Seasonal demand, driving, so on and so forth. June, then July, August, September, you start to see prices usually come down a little bit. Well, that's happening already this year. It's already accounting for lower prices. All right. The July price is only$2.95 compared to$3.18 for April. July's 33% inflation. August, with the future August price of$285. So even if prices come down to$285 by August, say the war ends and prices come down and everyone's, you know, all happy because prices are down, you know, 50 cents a gallon at the pump, it's still 27% year-over-year inflation. September, all right, actually now jumps back up to 38%, and that's expecting a$2.70 price for September. A$2.77 price this year in September is high. Even though it's down 50 cents from April, it's still up 38% from a year ago. Let's talk about the other thing that's gotten some attention finally. I talked about this, I did a piece called The Shit Hits the Fan, literally, because we're talking fertilizer. And fertilizer impacts food. Why do you think soybeans and wheat and corn are up so much? It's because the potential for yields to be lower because fertilizer is so expensive and not as easy to come by as it used to be. All right. Let's take a look at this market. You have urea, potassium, night, the night, the nitro, the nitro, the nitrous. That's nitrogen nitrous, all right, and potash. Bottom line is the U.S., when it talks about the entire fertilizer package, U.S. imports most from Canada, 51%. So maybe you want to play nice with Canada, like I've been urging for months. The other 20% from Russia, and then you have 10% from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. On top of that, in terms of global production, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are third, fourth, and fifth globally. Globally. We get other sources from Nigeria and Algeria, not necessarily really, you know, stable places. But when you talk about the amount that flows through and the you know the import, particularly for urea, it's really a lot. I mean, we rely a lot on it. We rely a lot on you know urea fertilizer that would ultimately come through the Strait of Homo's. This is why corn and wheat are up so much. Now, the PPI didn't get the full breakdown yet, so we didn't see for fertilizer. But in January, in January, fertilizer in the PPI was 10.4 and rising. All right. If it gets above 20, which is absolutely already there because where the prices are now, it's easily more than 20% year over year. It's crisis territory, 2008, 2011, 2020. One. The uh nitrogenus is up 20.1%, and ammonia and urea, one category, is up 22.2% year over year in January. In January. And I can tell you now, let me flip it two seconds, urea since October, since October, and we're gonna do a bigger comparison of commodities since October, urea is up 84.9%. This is big news, man. This is gonna impact food. And if you have lower yields, the yield estimates are very optimistic. I mean, the USDA and their WASDE, the World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates, which is basically the crop report, um, the same one that you know Duke and Duke tried to steal and corner the OJ market, uh, is um uh very optimistic. I mean, it's like an idyllic situation. And if you keep in mind that, yeah, there's there's not a shortage of soybeans. There's no shortage of soybeans. Let me make that clear. I'm very bullish on soybeans. We made a lot of money this quarter on the in the bean complex, particularly on soybean oil, because that's in the biggest demand. But you there's no margin for error. That's the problem here for you know, for the bears or whatever. I mean, it's to the degree that you need to keep increasing output because demand keeps increasing. And any hit to output could be catastrophic. Already, you know, China's had to divert some of their purchases from Brazil because of disease. So, I mean, that's another wild card. That's another reason that's kind of added to the up push in soybeans. All of a sudden, G and uh Trump aren't going to meet, and soybeans dropped 70 cents in a day. It was a buying opportunity. It really was. Um, but in that context, that means food higher too, because it's all about inflation. So you have goods inflation going up, which was the reason you had this inflation in energy and food, and in services and certain things that were way out of control on the upside. But service inflation still remains highly problematic. There is no P to be found when you use this as the shell for your inflation argument. Because of the 80 service CPI indexes for services, X energy, and the only two for energy are electricity and natural gas, which are both double digits. So keep that in mind too. Saying X energy makes this less uh inflation, not more. Okay. So the service uh CPI indexes, 80 of them in total. Okay, I can tell you right now that 44% of them are above four percent. 44% are above four, thirty-one percent or above five percent over your rate of inflation, almost a third above five, and almost a half of services above four. In total, sixty percent are above three percent. Let me run down some things because the things that are really expensive are things that people need to buy, all right? Like motor vehicle maintenance and repair up 5.6, home uh home uh home health care up 15, nursing home up 5.5, outpatient treatments 6.7, hospital 7.0, pet services 7.3, tenant and or homeowner insurance up 6.2, airfare 7.1, dental 6.5, haircuts 5, uh dry cleaning 8.9. I mean, these are some of the inflation rates out there. Inflation, the witch is not dead, the witch is flying high, the monkeys are coming. We see it in in terms of how is this going to affect the consumer? I keep saying it's gonna be a dagger. It's like another one of those seesaw analogies that I like to make, all right? You can't keep pouring more sand on the side of inflation and not expect it to flip the consumer the other way, which in this case up means down because you don't have enough force to push the inflation back the other way with your spending. All right, you're pretty much stranded at the top there and just have to wait. Well, that's kind of where you're at. And if you start to look at delinquencies on credit cards, you know, because everyone kind of wants to say the consumer's strong and healthy, and you know, no, I don't buy it, man. I you you have high delinquency rates, you you had a big but uh uh uh bulge in savings actually in the most recent PCE data from two weeks ago. I noticed that it was really interesting. But in this case, that's not necessarily a negative. Because when you break down the consumption within the PCE report, and this was for January, by the way, it'll be interesting to see what the has lagged a month because the BEA has closed. When you look at the spending part of the consumption expenditures, you see things like homeowner insurance, electricity, then you know, gasoline, the needs are the things that the biggest increases in spending are. Whereas the discretionary items are in the negative. In this case, auto sales were very much negative, and auto sales are kind of swinging. Auto sales go down, you might have some sales in other discretionary items. Auto sales go up, every discretionary item pretty much is to the downside. It's a rotation. You know, there's no growth. There's no real growth there. You know, wage growth, you're lucky if it's 1% on a real basis, and that 1% is about to disappear when inflation jumps back to four. I mean, so that's a problem. We know the employment markets are starting to come unglued. Delinquencies on credit cards is the third highest ever in dollar amount. Now, take this with a little bit of grain of salt because the high the amount of credit card debt's the highest ever. All right, but the ratio kind of works, man. It's very, very close to say this is equivalent to the fourth quarter of 2007 through to the peak, which was in the first quarter of 2010. That period, that two and a half year period of the biggest crisis. We are there in terms of the credit card debt that is now delinquent. So this is now maybe why when we look at the stock market, which got whacked towards the end of the week, we've had our clients short for gosh, about six weeks now. Didn't look like it was going to work out, and just said, look, someone's trying to hold this market up, right? You talk about financial television, every vested guy on there is either owns a bond shop, is tout in bonds, or is a stock guy, tout in stocks. I mean, so you really, you know, it's tough to get the real information. But when you look at where the consumer is, number one statistically for the consumer, and then when you look at where the consumer is relative to what the stock market is telling you, the XLY, SP consumer uh uh ETF, the XRT, SP retailer, and the PNQI, which is a great one to watch, is the Internet Retailer ETF. All the three of these are now breaking down. The XLY is the last to go because it has home builders and other stocks in there that frankly shouldn't be considered consumer discretionary. But guess buying a home is discretionary. So the home builders have held that up relative to the others. But the XRT is way down against the S P 500. The P and QI is breaking down against the S P 500. All three are breaking down on their own. But here's the here's the real rub. Amazon is on the verge of breaking down, and that's double because that also kind of throws you into the AI kind of thing. But and also MasterCard, which has been one of the best stocks during the bullish period since the uh pandemic, has been phenomenal performance in MasterCard. It has led the way. The ratio spread overlays against the price of the SP and the price of MasterCard. It's a beautiful chart. And the MasterCard has led the way, peaked first, and is now breaking down. It is suggesting 10 to 15% of immediate downside in the SP 500. Then you look at the XLK, which is the infotech, the IGV, the software, and even the XSD, which is the semiconductors, and even NVIDIA, which I'm saving for last. I call this the Tom Cruise market. It's the ultimate Tom Cruise market. If you remember that movie where he's clinging by fingernails on a precipice, okay? I say clinging by a single fingernail on the edge of a technical precipice. That's the stock market right now. The SP, the NASDAQ, all of them. And I look at this and I say, well, you know, well, that it's I'm I'm not surprised. I mean, I kind of embarrassed. Why? Because if we do a little study that I did two weeks ago, March 13th, I did this study for my clients. At that point, going back to October 10th, so October to November to December to January to February to March, a almost a solid five-month period, five months and two or three days. Over that time frame, from October to March, the Nasdaq unchanged, dollar index unchanged, 30-year bond yield unchanged. Unchanged. Had not changed in five months. Up and down, all over the place. No change in five months. You know what changed in five months? London gas oil up 106%. Urea up 84.9%. Silver up 75.2. WTI crude oil up 56.6. Gasoline up 43.3. Aluminum up 26.7. Gold up 25.2. Rubber up 20%. Copper up 18.4%. Soybeans up 16%. The commodity indexes, DBE for energy, 56.8. DBC for all the commodities, 33.2. Precious metals, DBP, 30.8. GSI 28.4. CRB 22.1. DBB for base metals, 17.9. And the aggs up 1.6. Some of the ags, the particularly soft tropicals, coffee, cocoa, sugar, even OJ, we've been getting whacked, but other, you know, in terms of the grains and the oil seeds, very high. Now here's the interesting thing to tie it all together. Because it's about the commodity inflation that we already have and that we're about to have, because it's not just about to have, we already have it. I just showed it to you. The top currencies, the dollar index was unchanged. Okay, making new highs against a lot of currencies like the Indian rupee, for example, through 93 rupee per dollar now. But the currencies that were the strongest in that five-month period, this list is going to blow your mind. I love this because I knew when I looked this up, I knew this was going to be the way it was. Because we've been touting this the whole time. Commodity exporting currencies, the Kazakhstan Tengue. Why? They got natural gas, they got liquid gas, LNG, they got uranium 8.8% up. The Brazilian Real up 8.7%, the Aussie dollar up 8.5. These are big moves for a five-month period for currencies. Mexican peso up 5.9, the African Rand up 5.4, and even the Chinese Rim Nimbi up 3.4%. Why? Because they have a lot of oil floating offshore. 40 million barrels, apparently, is one estimate, just in crude oil sitting offshore in tankers. So, you know, and they have all kinds of reserves and they have access to pretty much anything outside of the Strait of Hormuz. You know, China's still in a position of strength here. But then this gets back to the Fed. And the Fed is looking at this seriously because, again, the overnight, the one-year uh overnight interest rate swap, 3.75, it touched on Friday. Actually, got to 378. The end of this year, Fed Funds futures, 378. Now came back off a little bit, it's 370, but that's in the middle of the current range. It's at the upper end of the current range. The swap rate in the Fed Funds futures, the 12-month swap rate from December 26th to December 27th, traded up to 44 basis points on Friday. That's an 88% chance of two interest rate hikes next year with nothing this year. Nothing. And what is the curve doing? The curve is flattening. The long end is sticking, and the short end is coming up because they're pricing away interest rate cuts. So the short end rises, the long end is not rising as much, and the curve is flattening. And it's really interesting. Watch the five-year, two-year, the mid-curve. It's at 10 basis points. They're all breaking down across the board. 30-year, two-year, 10-year, two-year, two, 10-year, two-year, 30-year, two-year, 30-year, 10-year, 10-year, five year, because all of them. They're all rolling over in a long-term, technically significant way against the trend towards, you know, uninversion and then steepening that we've seen over the last two and a half years, three years. It's a major change. And it's sending a macro message about the economy that tightening is going to be a dagger in the back of the consumer. No P to be found. Every shell, no P. All right. Then I asked, well, you know, copper, aluminum, tins, zinc, they've all been up huge. But they got whacked this week. Gold, and interesting because I advise clients to get out of all gold, including the stock positions two weeks ago, and then again on Monday. And man, that really played hard. I didn't think it would even be that hard. We're still looking for long-term buying opportunities, but in terms of taking protection, it's very similar to what I'm about to say about the overall stock market, because that leads into one leads into another. All right, and I asked copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, even gold and silver, down big last week. Is this a shot across the bow of the strong economy narrative? I think it is. I sure do. 5.2% nominal GDP. Are you kidding me? I don't see that. I really don't. Copper since January 29th is down 17.6%. That's since the war. All right. Then copper gets back to Amazon. Amazon breakdown, the AI, electric grid. I mean, even the XLE set a new all-time high last week and closed lower on the week. I mean, it looks to me like an all-out asset disinflation episode. The XLRE, by the way, the real estate ETF got whacked, uh, was down 10% in just the last week. One week move of 10%. New home sales were bad. Permits data was bad. All kind of on the verge of breaking uptrends that go back. All right. So breakdown there would be significant. Now we could talk a lot about housing. There's so much more to talk about, but I'm not going to. Same with the labor market. We know where the labor market's going. AI, unless AI doesn't become as destructive to jobs as it might ultimately be too quickly and allows for productivity growth that offers increased pay, that might be a sweet spot. If you want to look for a positive, that could be one. But I tell you what, what I don't see is positives within the macro dynamic as it relates to the consumer, who is still 70% of the economy, services 70% of the economy, inflation is rising. It's going to be another issue. The Fed may, in fact, have to tighten. I don't think they will. I don't think they'll be able to because I think final demand will collapse and they're going to look through this inflation to say inflation will bring final demand down. We need to remain supportive to the consumer. So that's really the interesting play. Right now, I think it is protection, protection, protection in stocks. We've been bearish for a while. I've seen this movie so many times. It gives you false starts, false starts, false starts. There's so much money out there that is the vested interest making sure this market doesn't close lower on the quarter to the degree that it already is. So we'll see. This is going to be a really interesting week coming up. And then two more days the following week. But I'll tell you this NVIDIA is at 172.70. Its breakdown pivot is 169.55. If it gets below that, NVIDIA starts to go. That's telling you it's an all-out barrage. Now I'm not an options guy. I'm really not. And I will never say I'm an options expert. And I don't like options. I don't like paying away premium. When you can do other things that allow you the similar moves, unless you have a futures contract, though, your choices are limited. Like the short ETFs, they just never really seem to work out. I mean, the June puts are uh for this year, the$6,500 put, they're trading around$250, which is you know times$50, it's the E-mini SP. That's$12,500 to protect$325,000 of underlying capital of underlying stock holdings. It's just under 4%. Now that's not cheap. It's definitely not cheap, but it's not hugely expensive either given the decline to decline you might be able to see, and given how quickly you can unload that if you see we see a bottom. Because I don't say this is, you know, I mean, this could be a longer dynamic. It could be a bleed, you know, bleed out type of thing, where it just kind of goes lower, very slowly until all of a sudden you're like, damn, we're down 20%. I don't think that's the way it's gonna play out because just the way it's held up in here and how many like false moves you've had and how how much eroded the leadership leadership is. There is no leadership whatsoever in this market right now, not even you know, really AI to the degree that you wonder is AI gonna be everything it's cracked up to be, especially when you see copper get hit. And now, if we see sometimes, I mean Google would be another one to watch. So at the end of the day, uh I could also say, come and shoot me an email and get a free trial to my GMSR, Global Macro Strategy Report. You know, we uh we publish every day. We have clients that are individual traders, we have clients that include the largest hedge funds on the planet, including one right down the road here in Miami, one of my biggest clients. You know, we do futures in terms of that. We also offer you know all the range of the S P 500, the individual stocks, kind of what these sectors look like, and that kind of thing, also in the mining shares. Very big quantitative work in every GMSR. So you might want to check that out. Email me, Greg Weldon, G-R-E-G, W-E-L-D-O-N, at weldononline.com. We trade in the we trade everything. Anything that will move, I will trade it. Food, energy, foreign exchange, bonds, stocks, metals. I think foreign exchange and food commodities are going to be big in terms of having them in your portfolio in some way going down the road through this next inflationary dynamic. I'd also say follow me on Twitter at Weldon Live, on YouTube at Gregory underscore weldon, and also, of course, the podcast Money, Markets, and New Age Investing. Thanks a lot. Shoot me an email. Got some cool charts I'd love to show you.