Why Canceling a Show Isn’t Simple (Severe Weather, Ego, and Logistics)

We’re officially in festival season right now, and every year, somebody somewhere is disappointed when severe weather happens and a show has to either be cut short or is canceled altogether. But what exactly happens when this process unfolds? What does it actually take for a show to be cut short or canceled due to severe weather? Who makes that call? And why does it feel like they sometimes make that call too late? How do you make a decision in the middle of all this when you’ve got your own feelings in the way?

Val has some questions as we enjoy festival season, and we’re going to try and answer them by diving into severe weather cancellations vigorously. 

Get more Val at https://valkleinhans.com/

Transcript

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We're officially in festival season right now, and every year somebody inevitably complains or is disappointed when severe weather happens, and a show has to either be cut short or canceled altogether. But what exactly happens when this process unfolds? Who makes the call to cancel these things? What does it actually take for a show to be cut short or canceled altogether due to severe weather? Who makes that call? Why does it feel like sometimes they make that call too late? And how do you do this in the middle of all this chaos when you've got your own feelings about the matter in the way? I have some questions as we enjoy festival season and we get further into it, and we're going to try and answer them by diving into severe weather cancellations vigorously. Some of you know that even though I live in Minnesota and I'm happy to do so, I do still have a soft spot for my hometown, Pittsburgh. And I am still very much plugged into their local news. I still have immediate family and friends there, and I want to stay in the memo. I care. I care about what's going on, care about if anything's happening that might be affecting them. May or may not be. Who knows? But I like to at least kind of have some awareness of what's happening in that area. So imagine my surprise when I heard, or maybe not surprise, when I heard that there was an issue with a Morgan Wallen concert plan not too long ago. It was supposed to happen at Accreshire Stadium recently. I still have trouble saying that. I don't know, because to me it's still Hinesfield. I've even called it Three River Stadium before because I remember calling it that for years and years and years. Um, I still remember when it existed. But I digress. That is an episode for another time. Morgan, in case you missed it, planned two nights in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, and only one of them actually happened. That's the gist of the story. And I heard that the first night had some issues with throwing phones at security or whatever. So that should have been our first clue that there's never a guarantee with this guy. But to be fair, second night was canceled through no fault of his own. Severe weather was in the forecast. This time of year in Pittsburgh, sometimes it does happen. And it seems Morgan and his team made the call early to cancel the show before it got bad. Specifically in this case, storms, thunderstorms, and very high winds were the biggest concerns. And the storm did hit, but it ended up going further south of Pittsburgh than was previously expected. And it entered well before the show, and it wasn't really impacting the immediate downtown area where the show was going to be, where people were concerned about like where all this was going to be happening. So, of course, they just had to do what they had to do. Like, of course, the storms came after this call was already made, right? It happens. And here's the response of the whole thing: a mixed response, really, like it is in most of these cases. Some were undeniably upset, understandably upset, and some were glad that risk wasn't taken. We know about plenty of incidents when someone's been hurt or even killed at a show with severe weather as a catalyst. Morgan did offer a refund in this case, too, and I get why this is frustrating as a fan. But I think it would help maybe ease everybody's minds about the subject if we really knew, if we really knew what actually went into canceling a show and how difficult this whole process really is. It ain't easy. So I decided, like I said, to ask some questions and see if we could put this together for the average person to gain a little bit of understanding on what this actually looks like. Now, I'm not gonna claim to be an expert on the subject or get super super detailed, but I can share a few bits of general knowledge, general truths that I have picked up just from knowing people in music, being involved in it, and being a part of a promotions team when I used to work in radio and we had to make these decisions sometimes. So here's some of the things that are considered, just so you know, when events or shows are put on and we hear about some weather. There's first off, there's safety thresholds. Number one promoters, venues, production teams, they monitor all of that. They monitor lightning within a certain radius. This is often the biggest concern. We don't want anybody hit, we don't want anybody electrocuted, just we don't want that. High winds are a huge concern, could affect structures like the stage itself, video walls, lighting rigs, roofs, whatever, tornado watches, warnings. That that's an issue in those scenarios. Flooding risks, also an issue, something you pay attention to if we've got a lot of water at once. Extreme heat or cold does make a difference too. And hail. Hail can damage structures just as well. So we pay attention to anything like that in the forecast. It perks our ears up for outdoor events. Wind can especially be dangerous because temporary stage structures have engineering limits. Sugarland and what happened at the Indiana State Fair appearance in 2011, very unfortunate, very sad situation. That is a prime example of what happens when this type of thing goes wrong. Seven people died in that roof collapse incident, and 58 were injured. So we're learning. I mean, we're it the whole thing is a risk assessment. That's what this is going to come down to, but I'll I'll continue here. Timing and forecast confidence is something that is also weighed. The question isn't just will it storm? That's not the only question that is asked. It's how likely is it to turn severe? What hours is this supposed to happen during? How confident are the true experts in how this weather's going to behave? The meteorologists, how confident are they that this is actually going to happen the way they think this is going to happen? A chance of storms at midnight might not matter for a show at 7 p.m. Think about it that way. A high confidence forecast for damaging winds during load-in or showtime, much harder to ignore, even when people are trying to leave. I'd like that that is much, much harder to ignore. We want people to be in a safe place and have enough time to get to a safe place. So we don't really want to start anything that would like keep them there. We want to think about all these things too. Of course, there's liability in insurance. All right. That that's always part of the conversation as well. If organizers proceed despite credible warnings, and someone gets hurt, there's legal and financial consequences to that, and they could be enormous. That's just general truth. Insurance companies, venue operators, local authorities, they all have some input, depending on the dynamics, and it's a little bit different. It's not the exact same every single time, but they they may have some input, all of them, in whether or not the event should continue. So this is a committee decision, is what I'm getting at. This isn't one person. This is definitely not the artist just making all of these decisions on their own. That's that's not what's happening here. This is a committee decision, very much a committee decision, and it is not up to one person, any one person, to cancel the show. It is a mutual agreement based on a consensus made after information has been gathered. You got to involve local authorities in all this too. I mean, depending on the situation, we got to consider emergency management officials and their capabilities, police, fire, uh, weather consultants in the area, local meteorologists, all that. All of these people sometimes might advise or even require cancellation. And do you really want to be the person that didn't listen to that advice? Nah, not really. Not really. So that's also factored in. Then there's the logistics of it all. And this is often the hardest part of the entire process because sometimes these decisions need to be made before the weather actually arrives. And this is what happened in the Morion Wallins situation. For a major concert, organizers have to consider multiple things. And yes, fans, they do consider us too. Tens of thousands of ticket holders traveling, that's a lot. People put money into this, they're not uh, you know, unaware of that. Staff scheduling, employees, all that. Okay, that matters too. Their pay, their schedule, their routine, all of that. Security staffing, very important. We have to have enough, have to make sure everybody's in place. Parking operations, we don't want that to get too crazy. Equipment load-in and loadout. Can we do this safely? Are the conditions alright for us to do this safely? And travel for the artists and their team. Can everybody do what they need to do safely? Waiting until the last minute, I understand, does create chaos. And teams try to prevent that if they can and try to put out as much notice on these things as they can. And sometimes that is just easier said than done. Indoor arenas can often hold these shows no problem through heavy rain, through heavy thunderstorms, hail. I've been in some. I've been in US Bank Stadium watching Rammstein in the middle of a hailstorm. We could hear it, but we also thought it was part of the. I mean, it kind of sounded cool because it could have been part of the show too. It could have been. It wasn't, but it could have been. But my point is sometimes those arenas allow for better protection. So if something's already set to be indoors, most of the time it's it's a little bit better, but outdoor situations, greater risk. It's different. Festivals, fairs, stadium shows, open roof, all that above. I mean, audiences, they're not unaware of these things. They know the audience is exposed. They know that evacuation takes time, and it does for indoor situations too. Stage structures being exposed to wind, that's a huge issue. Like I said, with the Sugarland situation, all of this is like gambling, if you will. You are taking a risk. You are taking a risk going on with the show if there's a threat of severe weather, and you're taking a risk if you cancel too. A lot of folks just don't want to take a chance on anybody getting hurt in these situations. And personally, I find that reasonable. So I'm not the type of fan that sits back and goes, Oh my god, I can't believe they canceled the show. There wasn't it, there ended up being no weather, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. No, some I'm sure that there was some sort of reason that this call was made earlier. Weather changes, it happens. You're never gonna get it right 1000% of the time. But would I rather have somebody say, maybe not today, if they really truly felt that there was a risk involved? Yes. Yes, I would. And it meant everybody got to go home that night to their own beds safely. Yeah, I would. That's how I look at it. So I have never been upset. And I have had tickets to shows that ended up getting canceled. I've never been upset about that. I that's because this is how I look at it. We didn't even touch on the ego of it all yet either. And let me clarify, I don't mean ego in the sense of someone is being arrogant and has an inflated self, you know, sense of self-importance, and we we need to carry on. I need to put on my show. No, I am speaking about ego in more literal terms, using its definition. How is this high-pressure situation like this mixing with decision making and that process, self-worth and self-esteem? How is all of that blending together? These pre-existing things, how is all of that blending together? That's what we're looking at. The rationale, if you will. And here's where ego, I think, shows up in some of these decisions. You could have the artist feeling like I'm supposed to go on no matter what, right? And a lot of performers carry an internal identity that is so closely tied to what they do that they want to be doing it. That, you know, this show must go on. The fans are counting on me. Uh, canceling means I failed them, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. There are some artists that weigh this. And even when it's unsafe, there is often sometimes an emotional resistance because canceling can feel like you're letting your fans down, you're losing momentum in a tour cycle, or just nobody likes to admit a lack of self-control. I mean, that's hard enough for anybody, artist or not. So the ego isn't quite arrogance here, but it is mixed with responsibility and identity. All the above. That's kind of how I understand this. You've got the promoter involved and the venue involved, like they're both thinking, they both might be thinking we can handle this. And venues and promoters often have to balance, again, the safety, the financial loss, the reputation, operational chaos, ego might show up in those situations as pushing to delay instead of total cancellations. Wait one more hour hoping that the weather might pass, uh, or just reluctance to be the one to make the final call, because that is tough. Because canceling first might be admitting, hey, we can't do this, we can't pull this off. Now, I there's a struggle there. They have other people they are beholden to that they have to answer to, and they weigh that. They weigh that, all of that is considered, and then of course, there's the fan expectation. We're not here thinking we came all this way, we spent all this money, travel, anticipation for the show itself. It's a rare opportunity. This is not something that we do every day. Get to go to the show and see this artist. We don't get to do this every day. So cancellations sometimes trigger reactions like just flat out anger or bargaining, like, oh, it's not even that bad. Let's just do this. And it's disappointment framed as blame. You're mad at the people who made this call. And I can understand why, but you wrestle with that. And then what is quite possibly the most dangerous one is we can push through this. This is the most important one, and anybody on a team or anybody involved in making this kind of decision may have been here before. Sometimes it shows up as like downplaying risk, normalizing unsafe conditions. Oh, it's just rain, it's just wind, blah blah blah blah blah. Waiting too long to act in live events, ego, maybe, can quietly override sometimes weather reports, safety protocols, evacuation logic, all the above, and you have to think about all of it. You're wrestling with all these things, and it sounds like what tripped up the Morgan Wallen show was that the weather did what it sometimes does, and that is change. Shocking. All of this comes down to in this scenario, are we willing to assume risk? That is the biggest question that any of these decision makers involved in situations like these are asking themselves. And answering that gets a lot more complicated when you're fighting with your own feelings on the subject and doing this while trying to make up your mind somewhat quickly. However, paying attention to this component can explain why these types of decisions are delayed or processes are or are not followed. Protocols are or not followed. You know, you sometimes to anybody on the outside, it can look like, well, this is easy. You should just say no and then follow protocol. And there's some people that do take that side of it, others willing to take the risk. You never know. At the end of the day, nobody wants to cancel a show. I promise you, it's not fun for the artist to cancel a show, it's not fun for their team, it's not fun for the venue, it's not fun for the promoter, anybody involved. Ultimately, they want this thing to go on. And the fans want it to go on. Everybody has invested in planning for events like this, whether it's travel plans, financial plans, all the above, everybody has done some version of that. And nobody wants this thing not to happen. So just know. The next time you see a concert canceled because of a weather forecast that never came to fruition, remember that a lot went into that decision. And the final call is only based on risk assessment. Concerts can be rescheduled, equipment can be replaced, a disappointing night can be made up. Safety cannot. Period. The irony of weather cancellations is that the safest decision often looks like the wrong decision afterward. So if the storm never arrives, yeah, people wonder why the show was canceled. But that is exactly how risk management works. You make the call before you know the outcome. It is gambling. And when it comes to severe weather, and you might be hearing some a little bit now, I am ironically recording this in the middle of a thunderstorm that I've got going on. So if you hear weird noises, just booms or whatever, everything's fine. We're good. When it comes to severe weather, of course, the best uh case scenario is not just making sure the predicted forecast is correct and it's what actually happens. Nobody really has control over that. It's getting everybody home safely. Let's do that, let's make that the primary focus. And this is where I will wish you a safe remaining festival season because we've got half more the rest of the summer to do this. So, safe summer show season. Enjoy them. Safe week ahead. Bye.