Bob Elliott: Markets Are Euphoric, But the Economy Isn't (What Happens Next)

Markets can sparkle while the floorboards creak. In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott to explore how euphoric equity pricing sits on top of a softer real economy and what that means for portfolios heading into a distinctly late-cycle stretch. From the narrow leadership of mega-cap AI to the flat reality of equal-weighted benchmarks, we trace where expectations outran the data and where a reset could bite.

We go deep on housing, replacing slogans with math. Affordability is stretched near historical extremes, and small declines in mortgage rates don't fix it. The conditions required for 2 to 3 percent mortgages likely imply a recessionary backdrop, weaker qualification, and rising supply—hardly the spark for a clean price boom. Treating homes as service assets rather than speculative vehicles helps cut through noise and aligns decisions with cash flow reality.

We also decode the dollar: how two decades of cross-border equity flows reshaped FX, why the greenback increasingly correlates with U.S. equities, and where targeted global opportunities emerge when expectations are low and currencies cooperate. Inflation now hovers around 3 percent, but the structural story runs through debt. With developed markets carrying heavy public liabilities and fewer demographic tailwinds, the quiet pressure is for fiat to cheapen against hard assets over time.

That's where gold reenters the conversation: a non-yielding currency without counterparty risk, under-owned by advisors, supported by central bank demand, and prone to convex moves when monetary buying overwhelms tight supply. The practical takeaway is clear: late-cycle resilience requires real diversification across independent return drivers and a tactical sleeve that can adapt as conditions change.

KEY TOPICS:
Elevated valuations vs softening demand
Narrow market breadth and AI capex concentration
Housing affordability near extremes
Why lower mortgage rates don't guarantee higher prices
The dollar's tie to equity flows and FX risk
Gold's role and central bank buying dynamics
Diversification across true return drivers

👉 Subscribe, share with a friend who thinks diversification means "more stocks," and comment: what's the one change you're making to prepare for late-cycle markets?

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DISCLAIMER:
Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Encompass More Asset Management LLC is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements.

[00:00:00] Setting The Nonconsensus Stage
[00:08:40] Market Breadth And The AI Capex Divide
[00:12:20] Late Cycle Signals And Weak Demand
[00:22:30] What Lower Mortgage Rates Really Mean
[00:33:00] The Dollar, Flows, And Global Equities
[00:40:30] International Value And Currency Risk
[00:52:00] Gold's Role, Flows, And Convexity
[01:00:00] Central Banks, Scarcity, And Scrapping
[01:13:20] Closing Thoughts And Listener Feedback

 @BobEUnlimited ​